**Meet the editor**

Dr. John P. Tiefenbacher (B.S. Carroll College, Wisconsin; M.S. University of Idaho; and PhD in Geography Rutgers University) is currently Professor in the Department of Geography at Texas State University in San Marcos, Texas. Dr. Tiefenbacher's research focuses on environmental (nature-society) geography. He has published on a range of topics that regard spatial patterns of

environmental problems, human perceptions of and responses to natural and technological hazards and attitudes about the places and natural communities people inhabit. His current research projects pertains to the challenges of urban hazards and evacuating cities, adaptation to climate change, and the responses of agricultural industries (particularly wine growers) to climate changes in several regions (principally South America, the U.S. and Europe) of the world.

Contents

**Preface VII**

Paul R. Houser

**Approach 131** Sima Ajami

**Section 1 Overviews of Disaster Prevention and Management 1**

Chapter 1 **Conceptual Frameworks of Vulnerability Assessments for**

Roxana L. Ciurean, Dagmar Schröter and Thomas Glade

**Post-Event Response to the Preparedness and Mitigation**

**Perspectives, Cultural Influences, and Current Challenges 55**

Chapter 2 **Disaster Management Discourse in Bangladesh: A Shift from**

**Approach Through Institutional Partnerships 33**

Chapter 3 **Hazard Mitigation Planning in the United States: Historical**

Chapter 4 **Improved Disaster Management Using Data Assimilation 83**

Chapter 5 **Visualization for Hurricane Storm Surge Risk Awareness and**

Chapter 6 **The Role of Earthquake Information Management System to Reduce Destruction in Disasters with Earthquake**

Thomas R. Allen, Stephen Sanchagrin and George McLeod

Andrea M. Jackman and Mario G. Beruvides

**Section 2 Managing Information for Disaster Management 81**

**Natural Disasters Reduction 3**

C. Emdad Haque and M. Salim Uddin

**Emergency Communication 105**

### Contents



Sima Ajami

#### **X** Contents


Preface

bility assessments.

new states.

Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters includes essays that demonstrate several issues that are critical to understand‐ ing risk and hazard and the prospects for disasters. The book is organized to group the re‐ search that relates to specific periods of the disaster management continuum. The chapters are original research reports by international scholars focused on unique aspects of disaster from their unique perspectives. The first set of three chapters pertains to the conceptualization of the issues that influence the distribution of hazard and the probabilities for disaster. The next three chapters regard the use and management of data during the run up to crises, the chal‐ lenges to effective integration of information into management activities, and some potential information management remedies. The final set of four chapters pertains to crisis manage‐ ment and recovery. The over-arching goal of disaster management, of course, is eventually to solve the problems that make it necessary by eliminating risk, hazard and vulnerability; goals

that are generally unrecognized by most, usually unspoken and indeed ambitious.

Ciurean, Malek, Schröter, Glade and Patt begin this volume with a discussion of the employ‐ ment of vulnerability assessments to reduce disasters. Few terms have generated as much confusion as vulnerability has among scholars and practitioners; this confusion undermines its meaningful application. As often happens when concepts becomes popular, vulnerabili‐ ty's meaning relative to disaster management has become obscured through its overuse as a "hot button" and its misapplication in analyses. These authors attempt to clarify the notion of vulnerability to offer a revised disaster risk analysis methodology. Their paper provides rationale for choices that ought to be considered in the development of a practical vulnera‐

The second chapter by Haque and Uddin presents a case study of an evolving disaster man‐ agement system in a developing nation. The authors critique the nature of the organization of and present approach to disaster management used in Bangladesh. They find that, while institutional partnership-building efforts have successfully integrated and strengthened thinking about disaster management in Bangladesh, the real effect has been only a formal‐ ized policy; it has not been truly enacted in practice. The authors offer approaches for organ‐ izing not only governmental stakeholders, but also integrating the roles of local and nongovernmental players and more rational assessment of patterns of risk, hazard, and vulnerability. The progression toward disaster management in the framework of progres‐ sive government is fraught with complexity, particularly in the circumstances of relatively

But even in states committed to progressive government, hazard mitigation and disaster man‐ agement are not easily accomplished. Jackman and Beruvides discuss the historical develop‐


### Preface

**Section 3 Crisis Management and Disaster Recovery 145**

**the Hotel Industry 147**

**of Natural Disasters 157** Diane Brand and Hugh Nicholson

Martin Bryant and Penny Allan

**Affordable Housing 205** Jacqueline McIntosh

Chapter 10 **The Implications of Post Disaster Recovery for**

Outi Niininen

**VI** Contents

Chapter 7 **Five Star Crisis Management — Examples of Best Practice from**

Chapter 8 **Learning from Lisbon: Contemporary Cities in the Aftermath**

Chapter 9 **Open Space Innovation in Earthquake Affected Cities 183**

Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters includes essays that demonstrate several issues that are critical to understand‐ ing risk and hazard and the prospects for disasters. The book is organized to group the re‐ search that relates to specific periods of the disaster management continuum. The chapters are original research reports by international scholars focused on unique aspects of disaster from their unique perspectives. The first set of three chapters pertains to the conceptualization of the issues that influence the distribution of hazard and the probabilities for disaster. The next three chapters regard the use and management of data during the run up to crises, the chal‐ lenges to effective integration of information into management activities, and some potential information management remedies. The final set of four chapters pertains to crisis manage‐ ment and recovery. The over-arching goal of disaster management, of course, is eventually to solve the problems that make it necessary by eliminating risk, hazard and vulnerability; goals that are generally unrecognized by most, usually unspoken and indeed ambitious.

Ciurean, Malek, Schröter, Glade and Patt begin this volume with a discussion of the employ‐ ment of vulnerability assessments to reduce disasters. Few terms have generated as much confusion as vulnerability has among scholars and practitioners; this confusion undermines its meaningful application. As often happens when concepts becomes popular, vulnerabili‐ ty's meaning relative to disaster management has become obscured through its overuse as a "hot button" and its misapplication in analyses. These authors attempt to clarify the notion of vulnerability to offer a revised disaster risk analysis methodology. Their paper provides rationale for choices that ought to be considered in the development of a practical vulnera‐ bility assessments.

The second chapter by Haque and Uddin presents a case study of an evolving disaster man‐ agement system in a developing nation. The authors critique the nature of the organization of and present approach to disaster management used in Bangladesh. They find that, while institutional partnership-building efforts have successfully integrated and strengthened thinking about disaster management in Bangladesh, the real effect has been only a formal‐ ized policy; it has not been truly enacted in practice. The authors offer approaches for organ‐ izing not only governmental stakeholders, but also integrating the roles of local and nongovernmental players and more rational assessment of patterns of risk, hazard, and vulnerability. The progression toward disaster management in the framework of progres‐ sive government is fraught with complexity, particularly in the circumstances of relatively new states.

But even in states committed to progressive government, hazard mitigation and disaster man‐ agement are not easily accomplished. Jackman and Beruvides discuss the historical develop‐

ment of hazard mitigation and planning in the United States. Their evaluation of the accomplishments and prospects for continued development of mitigation plans at state and local levels demonstrates that there are still practical challenges and realities that exist even within systems that apparently have been committed to disaster prevention for many decades.

In our final section of the text, we examine four topics that pertain to the period of emergen‐ cy or crisis and its aftermath. In the first chapter, Niininen examines disasters from the per‐ spective of the host of non-resident populations during emergencies. The hoteliers in tourist destinations play an important role during sudden-onset hazardous events. Niininen re‐ ports the results of a survey of hotel managers from three very different contexts: London, Hong Kong and Finland. The analysis provides for a list of best management practices for hotel managers vis á vis their guests, their staff and their local municipal governments. It is vital for hotel managers to recognize the roles they have assumed in emergencies and crises

Preface IX

The aftermath of disasters reveal much about the role societies play in creating the potential for disasters. Centuries of experience that modern societies have with disasters, particularly in urbanized or developed regions, has prompted activities aimed at managing risk, reduc‐ ing hazard, preparing for disaster and to enabling faster recovery. The final three chapters examine aspects of the responses to disaster that either attenuate or magnify disruptions

Brand and Nicholson examine the aftermath of the Lisbon, Portugal earthquake of 1755 and consider the lessons that contemporary urban systems might consider in their own respons‐ es to city-wide destruction they might experience. Indeed, the authors evaluate equivalent actions that have been (or have not been) taken by the city of Christchurch, New Zealand in their responses to two significant earthquakes in 2010 and 2011. The authors emphasize the value that urban design principles can provide for the improvement of not only the city's functional quality but for mitigation of hazards and increasing resilience. Their review of the Christchurch government's approach stresses that the lessons learned have not been ade‐

Bryant and Allen similarly consider urban form after earthquake devastation reduces the urban architecture to rubble. In their chapter, they examine the emergence of open space in the tightly constructed confines of Kobe, Japan. Modern urban design principles promote humanization of the built landscape, and in the processes of destruction one can find the creation of opportunities for the greening of the brick and mortar landscapes of cities, the mitigation of hazard, prospects for bottom-up governance, revitalization of communities

And in the final chapter in the text, McIntosh takes the analysis deeper into the process of recovery in an examination of the provision of affordable housing for victims of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans. An imperfect process in responses to most disasters, housing the displaced populations is often treated as a structural issue (in that it only requires roofs and walls). The author here shows that not only is the approach reflected in the response to Ka‐ trina insufficient, it was inefficient, ineffective and not sustainable. While the government's actions to meet the needs of the victims was largely a reaction to public outrage at the enor‐ mity of the calamity and the government's own failures, the eventual housing solutions were superficial and unsatisfactory. The lesson it leaves is that disaster recovery is not sim‐ ply a matter of providing "temporary" material improvements for impacted communities,

but it requires a deeper and more permanent effort to restore the community itself.

So in summary, this volume evidences that successful disaster management is rooted in both disaster prevention and, when necessary, effective, thoroughly planned actions that not only look to reduce the impacts of hazard events but also incorporate activities that improve

by virtue of their attraction of visitors to their destinations.

and suffering.

quately applied.

and the augmentation of resilience.

The data and information management realms of modern life have exploded in volume and complexity. The capacity to gather data and analyze it in real time not only benefits the dis‐ aster manager, but also makes decision making more complex. The second section of this volume pertains to the use of increasingly automated data collection systems that provide sophisticated measures of environmental conditions. These systems can not only increase the amount and detail of the operation of natural and social systems, but the use of the data requires increasing degrees of technical knowledge to use (extract facts, judge meaning, in‐ terpret and convert to messages for managers). The three papers included here discuss the cutting edge of the application of data in emergency planning and disaster management.

Houser's chapter reviews data assimilation theory and discusses several diverse applica‐ tions of data that can be employed in spatial decision support for disaster management. Da‐ ta networks increase not only the capacity to monitor the developments across a greater space, but in combination with advanced modeling, can yield views into the near future that promote proactive management rather than simply enabling faster reactions to the outcomes of hazardous events.

While data may typically amount to numbers reflecting measures of depth, height, strength, speed and other physical phenomena, their collection and tabulation rarely provides effective understanding for users of the information they contain. With the dramatic increases of speed and capacity that we have witnessed in the realm of computing resources, it has become in‐ creasingly possible to convert the data to visual products that make their meaning more appa‐ rent. The chapter by Allen, Sanchagrin and McLeod describe the coupled advances of modeling with geovisualization, techniques that enable spatial views of the implications of changing environments. Specifically, they discuss and exemplify the prospects for improving hurricane storm-surge risk predictions to advance the meaningfulness and spatial precision of the perceptions of coastal residents and disaster managers. They demonstrate the benefits and costs of choices among models, statistical techniques and graphical capabilities of the technol‐ ogies, but exhibit the great value that such advances can provide.

Indeed, though the advanced technology that enables detailed geovisualization exists in some of the most modern parts of the world, there are regions that are relatively undevel‐ oped in terms of their capacity to quickly and efficiently gather data across vast areas and use those data to guide disaster response. Ajami's chapter reviews the prospects for an earthquake information management system (EIMS) in Iran by deriving lessons from the challenges experienced in Afghanistan, India, Japan and Turkey. National-scale systems are particularly important for regions that are dependent upon centralized decisions, as is the case in Iran. When response, relief and coordination of recovery is dependent upon not only a centralized government and but also non-governmental organizations that are constrained by that government, it becomes even more critical to establish stronger data-gathering sys‐ tems that extend to the hinterlands. In the context of developing nations, the lack of coordi‐ nated response based on near-real time data, information management systems may be the key to reducing the tolls of extreme events from catastrophic levels to mere disasters.

In our final section of the text, we examine four topics that pertain to the period of emergen‐ cy or crisis and its aftermath. In the first chapter, Niininen examines disasters from the per‐ spective of the host of non-resident populations during emergencies. The hoteliers in tourist destinations play an important role during sudden-onset hazardous events. Niininen re‐ ports the results of a survey of hotel managers from three very different contexts: London, Hong Kong and Finland. The analysis provides for a list of best management practices for hotel managers vis á vis their guests, their staff and their local municipal governments. It is vital for hotel managers to recognize the roles they have assumed in emergencies and crises by virtue of their attraction of visitors to their destinations.

ment of hazard mitigation and planning in the United States. Their evaluation of the accomplishments and prospects for continued development of mitigation plans at state and local levels demonstrates that there are still practical challenges and realities that exist even within systems that apparently have been committed to disaster prevention for many decades. The data and information management realms of modern life have exploded in volume and complexity. The capacity to gather data and analyze it in real time not only benefits the dis‐ aster manager, but also makes decision making more complex. The second section of this volume pertains to the use of increasingly automated data collection systems that provide sophisticated measures of environmental conditions. These systems can not only increase the amount and detail of the operation of natural and social systems, but the use of the data requires increasing degrees of technical knowledge to use (extract facts, judge meaning, in‐ terpret and convert to messages for managers). The three papers included here discuss the cutting edge of the application of data in emergency planning and disaster management. Houser's chapter reviews data assimilation theory and discusses several diverse applica‐ tions of data that can be employed in spatial decision support for disaster management. Da‐ ta networks increase not only the capacity to monitor the developments across a greater space, but in combination with advanced modeling, can yield views into the near future that promote proactive management rather than simply enabling faster reactions to the outcomes

While data may typically amount to numbers reflecting measures of depth, height, strength, speed and other physical phenomena, their collection and tabulation rarely provides effective understanding for users of the information they contain. With the dramatic increases of speed and capacity that we have witnessed in the realm of computing resources, it has become in‐ creasingly possible to convert the data to visual products that make their meaning more appa‐ rent. The chapter by Allen, Sanchagrin and McLeod describe the coupled advances of modeling with geovisualization, techniques that enable spatial views of the implications of changing environments. Specifically, they discuss and exemplify the prospects for improving hurricane storm-surge risk predictions to advance the meaningfulness and spatial precision of the perceptions of coastal residents and disaster managers. They demonstrate the benefits and costs of choices among models, statistical techniques and graphical capabilities of the technol‐

Indeed, though the advanced technology that enables detailed geovisualization exists in some of the most modern parts of the world, there are regions that are relatively undevel‐ oped in terms of their capacity to quickly and efficiently gather data across vast areas and use those data to guide disaster response. Ajami's chapter reviews the prospects for an earthquake information management system (EIMS) in Iran by deriving lessons from the challenges experienced in Afghanistan, India, Japan and Turkey. National-scale systems are particularly important for regions that are dependent upon centralized decisions, as is the case in Iran. When response, relief and coordination of recovery is dependent upon not only a centralized government and but also non-governmental organizations that are constrained by that government, it becomes even more critical to establish stronger data-gathering sys‐ tems that extend to the hinterlands. In the context of developing nations, the lack of coordi‐ nated response based on near-real time data, information management systems may be the

key to reducing the tolls of extreme events from catastrophic levels to mere disasters.

ogies, but exhibit the great value that such advances can provide.

of hazardous events.

VIII Preface

The aftermath of disasters reveal much about the role societies play in creating the potential for disasters. Centuries of experience that modern societies have with disasters, particularly in urbanized or developed regions, has prompted activities aimed at managing risk, reduc‐ ing hazard, preparing for disaster and to enabling faster recovery. The final three chapters examine aspects of the responses to disaster that either attenuate or magnify disruptions and suffering.

Brand and Nicholson examine the aftermath of the Lisbon, Portugal earthquake of 1755 and consider the lessons that contemporary urban systems might consider in their own respons‐ es to city-wide destruction they might experience. Indeed, the authors evaluate equivalent actions that have been (or have not been) taken by the city of Christchurch, New Zealand in their responses to two significant earthquakes in 2010 and 2011. The authors emphasize the value that urban design principles can provide for the improvement of not only the city's functional quality but for mitigation of hazards and increasing resilience. Their review of the Christchurch government's approach stresses that the lessons learned have not been ade‐ quately applied.

Bryant and Allen similarly consider urban form after earthquake devastation reduces the urban architecture to rubble. In their chapter, they examine the emergence of open space in the tightly constructed confines of Kobe, Japan. Modern urban design principles promote humanization of the built landscape, and in the processes of destruction one can find the creation of opportunities for the greening of the brick and mortar landscapes of cities, the mitigation of hazard, prospects for bottom-up governance, revitalization of communities and the augmentation of resilience.

And in the final chapter in the text, McIntosh takes the analysis deeper into the process of recovery in an examination of the provision of affordable housing for victims of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans. An imperfect process in responses to most disasters, housing the displaced populations is often treated as a structural issue (in that it only requires roofs and walls). The author here shows that not only is the approach reflected in the response to Ka‐ trina insufficient, it was inefficient, ineffective and not sustainable. While the government's actions to meet the needs of the victims was largely a reaction to public outrage at the enor‐ mity of the calamity and the government's own failures, the eventual housing solutions were superficial and unsatisfactory. The lesson it leaves is that disaster recovery is not sim‐ ply a matter of providing "temporary" material improvements for impacted communities, but it requires a deeper and more permanent effort to restore the community itself.

So in summary, this volume evidences that successful disaster management is rooted in both disaster prevention and, when necessary, effective, thoroughly planned actions that not only look to reduce the impacts of hazard events but also incorporate activities that improve other aspects of social systems and human spaces. While disaster management had its be‐ ginnings in simplified notions of engineering of the natural environments that generate risk, it has become abundantly clear that it must be a multifaceted ecological response between people, nature and our management systems. Where people and risk cannot be separated, they must be managed in ways that lesson the need for disaster management and improve the freedoms of both people and nature to live their lives unencumbered by the needs or torment of the other.

> **Dr. John P. Tiefenbacher** Department of Geography, Texas State University USA

**Section 1**

**Overviews of Disaster Prevention and**

**Management**

**Overviews of Disaster Prevention and Management**

other aspects of social systems and human spaces. While disaster management had its be‐ ginnings in simplified notions of engineering of the natural environments that generate risk, it has become abundantly clear that it must be a multifaceted ecological response between people, nature and our management systems. Where people and risk cannot be separated, they must be managed in ways that lesson the need for disaster management and improve the freedoms of both people and nature to live their lives unencumbered by the needs or

**Dr. John P. Tiefenbacher**

USA

Department of Geography, Texas State University

torment of the other.

X Preface

**Chapter 1**

**Conceptual Frameworks of Vulnerability Assessments**

The last few decades have demonstrated an increased concern for the occurrence of natural disasters and their consequences for leaders and organizations around the world. The EM-DAT International Disaster Database [1] statistics show that, in the last century, the mortality risk associated with major weather-related hazards has declined globally, but there has been

Looking into more detail, UNISDR's Global Assessment Report 2011 (GAR11) [2] indicates that disasters in 2011 set a new record of \$366 billion for economic losses, including \$210 billion as a result of the Great East Japan Earthquake and the accompanying tsunami alone, and \$40 billion as a result of the floods in Thailand. There were 29,782 deaths linked to 302 major disaster events including 19,846 deaths in the March earthquake/tsunami in Japan (figures presented by other disaster databases for 2011 summary e.g. NATCAT Service – MunichRE, are slightly different but in general agreement). Disaster databases, such as the ones referred to above, represent key resources for actors involved in policy and practice related with disaster risk reduction and response. However, considering their diversity and recognizing their different roles, one can identify at least one limitation in their use i.e. the inclusion criteria which inherently results in many hazard events not being registered. Compiling and analyzing an extensive natural disaster data set for the period 1993 – 2002, Alexander [3] showed that, for example, in the Philippines in 1996 there were 31 major floods, 29 earthquakes, 10 typhoons and 7 tornadoes. Due to population pressure, large areas of Luzon and other islands were denuded of their dense vegetation cover resulting in landslide prone slopes. Twelve major episodes of slope failure causing high damages to infrastructure and build up areas were registered in the archipelago during 1996. Although documentation of the Government expenditures to finance relief efforts for natural disasters during the 1996 – 2002 period is not

> © 2013 Ciurean et al.; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

© 2013 Ciurean et al.; licensee InTech. This is a paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

a rapid increase in the exposure of economic assets to natural hazards.

**for Natural Disasters Reduction**

Roxana L. Ciurean, Dagmar Schröter and

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

Thomas Glade

**1. Introduction**

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/55538

### **Conceptual Frameworks of Vulnerability Assessments for Natural Disasters Reduction**

Roxana L. Ciurean, Dagmar Schröter and Thomas Glade

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/55538

### **1. Introduction**

The last few decades have demonstrated an increased concern for the occurrence of natural disasters and their consequences for leaders and organizations around the world. The EM-DAT International Disaster Database [1] statistics show that, in the last century, the mortality risk associated with major weather-related hazards has declined globally, but there has been a rapid increase in the exposure of economic assets to natural hazards.

Looking into more detail, UNISDR's Global Assessment Report 2011 (GAR11) [2] indicates that disasters in 2011 set a new record of \$366 billion for economic losses, including \$210 billion as a result of the Great East Japan Earthquake and the accompanying tsunami alone, and \$40 billion as a result of the floods in Thailand. There were 29,782 deaths linked to 302 major disaster events including 19,846 deaths in the March earthquake/tsunami in Japan (figures presented by other disaster databases for 2011 summary e.g. NATCAT Service – MunichRE, are slightly different but in general agreement). Disaster databases, such as the ones referred to above, represent key resources for actors involved in policy and practice related with disaster risk reduction and response. However, considering their diversity and recognizing their different roles, one can identify at least one limitation in their use i.e. the inclusion criteria which inherently results in many hazard events not being registered. Compiling and analyzing an extensive natural disaster data set for the period 1993 – 2002, Alexander [3] showed that, for example, in the Philippines in 1996 there were 31 major floods, 29 earthquakes, 10 typhoons and 7 tornadoes. Due to population pressure, large areas of Luzon and other islands were denuded of their dense vegetation cover resulting in landslide prone slopes. Twelve major episodes of slope failure causing high damages to infrastructure and build up areas were registered in the archipelago during 1996. Although documentation of the Government expenditures to finance relief efforts for natural disasters during the 1996 – 2002 period is not

© 2013 Ciurean et al.; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2013 Ciurean et al.; licensee InTech. This is a paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

completely contained in Figure 1 [4], one can observe that 1996 stands out as a particular year with high costs of rehabilitation.

The objective of this work is to discuss and illustrate different approaches used in vulnerability assessment for hydro-meteorological hazards (i.e. landslides and floods, incl. flash floods) taking into account two perspectives: hazard vulnerability and global change vulnerability, which are rooted in the technical and environmental as well as social disciplines. The study is based on a review of recent research findings in global change and natural hazards risk management. The overall aim is to identify current gaps that can guide the development of future perspectives for vulnerability analysis to hydro-meteoro‐ logical hazards. Following the introduction (section 1), the second section starts with a definition of vulnerability within the context of risk management to natural hazards (subsection 2.1). Subsequently, various conceptual models (sub-section 2.2) and vulnerability assessment methodologies (sub-section 2.3) are analyzed and compared based on their different disciplinary foci. In the third section, the importance of addressing uncertainty in vulnerability analysis is discussed and lastly general observations and concluding re‐

Conceptual Frameworks of Vulnerability Assessments for Natural Disasters Reduction

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/55538

5

According to the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Report [8], there are two essential elements in the formulation of risk (Eq. 1): a potential event – hazard, and the degree of susceptibility of the elements exposed to that source –

In UNISDR terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction [9], «risk» is defined as the combination of the probability of an event and its negative consequences". A «hazard» is "a dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic

Within the risk management framework, vulnerability pertains to consequence analysis. It generally defines the potential for loss to the elements at risk caused by the occurrence of a hazard, and depends on multiple aspects arising from physical, social, economic, and envi‐ ronmental factors, which are interacting in space and time. Examples may include poor design and construction of buildings, inadequate protection of assets, lack of public information and awareness, limited official recognition of risks and preparedness measures, and disregard for

RISK = HAZARD X VULNERABILITY (1)

marks are presented.

vulnerability.

**2. Conceptual frameworks**

disruption, or environmental damage".

wise environmental management.

**2.1. Vulnerability and risk management to natural hazards**

Experience has shown that considering the frequency of disasters affecting the Philippines, its socio-economic context, and risk culture, the disaster management system tends to rely on a response approach. However, studies indicate that efforts are being made to engage more proactive approaches, involving mitigation and preparedness strategies [4]. In order to achieve this it is thus important to investigate not only the nature of the threat but also the underlying characteristics of the environment and society that makes them susceptible to damage and losses – in other words, the role of *vulnerability* in determining natural hazard risk levels.

**Figure 1.** Philippines – annual expenditure under the National Calamity Fund (1996 – 2002) (Based on GDP at price market) [4]

#### **BOX 1: Vulnerability – One term many meanings**

In everyday use of language, the term vulnerability refers to the inability to withstand the effects of a hostile environment. The definition of vulnerability for the purpose of scientific assessment depends on the purpose of the study – is it to get a differential picture of global change threats to human well-being in different world regions? Is it to inform particular stakeholders about adaptation options to a potential future development? Is it to show that likelihood of harm and cost of harm have changed for a specific element of interest within the human-environment system? In scientific assessment the term vulnerability can have many meanings, differentiated mostly by (a) the vulnerable entity studied, (b) the stakeholders of the study.

The design of scientific assessment (as opposed to scientific research) has to respond to the scientific needs of the particular stakeholder who might use it [5]. An integral part of vulnerability assessment therefore is the collaboration with its stakeholders [6], [7]. Thus, the specific definition and the method of vulnerability assessment is specific to each study and needs to be made transparent in the specific context. An example set of definitions on vulnerability used in natural hazards risk assessment and global change research is presented in section 2.2, Table 1.

The objective of this work is to discuss and illustrate different approaches used in vulnerability assessment for hydro-meteorological hazards (i.e. landslides and floods, incl. flash floods) taking into account two perspectives: hazard vulnerability and global change vulnerability, which are rooted in the technical and environmental as well as social disciplines. The study is based on a review of recent research findings in global change and natural hazards risk management. The overall aim is to identify current gaps that can guide the development of future perspectives for vulnerability analysis to hydro-meteoro‐ logical hazards. Following the introduction (section 1), the second section starts with a definition of vulnerability within the context of risk management to natural hazards (subsection 2.1). Subsequently, various conceptual models (sub-section 2.2) and vulnerability assessment methodologies (sub-section 2.3) are analyzed and compared based on their different disciplinary foci. In the third section, the importance of addressing uncertainty in vulnerability analysis is discussed and lastly general observations and concluding re‐ marks are presented.

#### **2. Conceptual frameworks**

completely contained in Figure 1 [4], one can observe that 1996 stands out as a particular year

4 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Experience has shown that considering the frequency of disasters affecting the Philippines, its socio-economic context, and risk culture, the disaster management system tends to rely on a response approach. However, studies indicate that efforts are being made to engage more proactive approaches, involving mitigation and preparedness strategies [4]. In order to achieve this it is thus important to investigate not only the nature of the threat but also the underlying characteristics of the environment and society that makes them susceptible to damage and losses – in other words, the role of *vulnerability* in determining natural hazard risk levels.

> **Expenditure sector** Relief

> > Rehabilitation Mitigation Preparedness

Other

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

**Years**

**Figure 1.** Philippines – annual expenditure under the National Calamity Fund (1996 – 2002) (Based on GDP at price

In everyday use of language, the term vulnerability refers to the inability to withstand the effects of a hostile environment. The definition of vulnerability for the purpose of scientific assessment depends on the purpose of the study – is it to get a differential picture of global change threats to human well-being in different world regions? Is it to inform particular stakeholders about adaptation options to a potential future development? Is it to show that likelihood of harm and cost of harm have changed for a specific element of interest within the human-environment system? In scientific assessment the term vulnerability can have many meanings, differentiated mostly by (a) the vulnerable entity studied, (b) the

The design of scientific assessment (as opposed to scientific research) has to respond to the scientific needs of the particular stakeholder who might use it [5]. An integral part of vulnerability assessment therefore is the collaboration with its stakeholders [6], [7]. Thus, the specific definition and the method of vulnerability assessment is specific to each study and needs to be made transparent in the specific context. An example set of definitions on vulnerability used in natural hazards

with high costs of rehabilitation.

**BOX 1: Vulnerability – One term many meanings**

risk assessment and global change research is presented in section 2.2, Table 1.

**Real 2000 million peso**

market) [4]

stakeholders of the study.

#### **2.1. Vulnerability and risk management to natural hazards**

According to the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Report [8], there are two essential elements in the formulation of risk (Eq. 1): a potential event – hazard, and the degree of susceptibility of the elements exposed to that source – vulnerability.

$$\text{RISK} = \text{HAZARD} \,\text{X VULNERABILITY} \tag{1}$$

In UNISDR terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction [9], «risk» is defined as the combination of the probability of an event and its negative consequences". A «hazard» is "a dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage".

Within the risk management framework, vulnerability pertains to consequence analysis. It generally defines the potential for loss to the elements at risk caused by the occurrence of a hazard, and depends on multiple aspects arising from physical, social, economic, and envi‐ ronmental factors, which are interacting in space and time. Examples may include poor design and construction of buildings, inadequate protection of assets, lack of public information and awareness, limited official recognition of risks and preparedness measures, and disregard for wise environmental management.

#### **BOX 2: Risk management frameworks are generally designed to answer the following questions [10]:**

What are the probable dangers and their magnitude? (*Danger Identification*) How often do the dangers of a given magnitude occur? (*Hazard Assessment*) What are the elements at risk? (*Elements at Risk Identification*) What is the possible damage to the elements at risk? (*Vulnerability Assessment*) What is the probability of damage? (*Risk Estimation*) What is the significance of the estimated risk? (*Risk Evaluation*) What should be done? (*Risk Management*)

#### **2.2. Vulnerability models**

There are multiple definitions, concepts and methods to systematize vulnerability denoting the plurality of views and meanings attached to this term. Birkmann [11] noted that 'we are still dealing with a paradox: we aim to measure vulnerability, yet we cannot define it precisely'. However, there are generally two perspectives in which vulnerability can be viewed and which are closely linked with the evolution of the concept [12]: (1) the amount of damage caused to a system by a particular hazard (technical or engineering sciences oriented perspective – dominating the disaster risk perception in the 1970s), and (2) a state that exists within a system before it encounters a hazard (social sciences oriented perspective – an alternative paradigm which uses vulnerability as a starting point for risk reduction since the 1980s). The former emphasizes 'assessments of hazards and their impacts, in which the role of human systems in mediating the outcomes of hazard events is downplayed or neglected'. The latter puts the human system on the central stage and focuses on determining the coping capacity of the society, the ability to resist, respond and recover from the impact of a natural hazard [13]. While the technical sciences perspective of vulnerability focuses primarily on physical aspects [14], the social sciences perspective takes into account various factors and parameters that influence vulnerability, such as physical, economic, social, environmental, and institutional characteristics [8]. Other approaches emphasize the need to account for additional global factors, such as globalization and climate change. Thus, the broader vulnerability assessment is in scope, the more interdisciplinary it becomes.

Vogel and O'Brien [17] emphasize that vulnerability is: *(a) multi-dimensional and differential* (varies for different dimensions of a single element or group of elements and from a physical context to another)*; (b) scale dependent* (with regard to the unit of analysis e.g. individual, local, regional, national etc.) *and (c) dynamic* (the characteristics that influence vulnerability are continuously changing in time and space). With regards to the first characteristic, there are generally five components (or dimensions) that need to be investigated in vulnerability assessment: (1) the physical/functional dimension (relates to the predisposition of a structure, infrastructure or service to be damaged due to the occurrence of a harmful event associated with a specific hazard); (2) the economic dimension (relates to the economic stability of a region endangered by a a loss of production, decrease of income or consumption of goods due to the occurrence of a hazard); (3) the social dimension (relates with the presence of human beings, individuals or communities, and their capacities to cope with, resist and recover from impacts of hazards); (4) the environmental dimension (refers to the interrelation between different ecosystems and their ability to cope with and recover from impacts of hazards and to tolerate stressors over time and space); (5) the political/institutional dimension (refers to those political or institutional actions e.g. livelihood diversification, risk mitigation strategies, regulation control, etc., or characteristics that determine differential coping capacities and exposure to

unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change [15], [16]

**Table 1.** General definitions of vulnerability used in risk assessment due to natural hazards and climate change

The degree of loss to a given element at risk or a set of elements at risk resulting from the occurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given magnitude and expressed on a scale from 0 (no

The conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes,

The characteristics of a person or group in terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist

The intrinsic and dynamic feature of an element at risk that determines the expected damage/ harm resulting from a given hazardous event and is often even affected by the harmful event itself. Vulnerability changes continuously over time and is driven by physical, social, economic

The degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and

which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards [8]

and recover from impacts of a hazard [13]

**Working definitions(s): Vulnerability is… Source**

Conceptual Frameworks of Vulnerability Assessments for Natural Disasters Reduction

[14]

7

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[11]

During the last decades, various schools of thinking proposed different conceptual models with the final aim of developing methods for measuring vulnerability. The following subsections give a short overview of some of the conceptual models presented in [11], such as the double structure of vulnerability, vulnerability within the context of hazard and risk, vulner‐ ability in the context of global environmental change community, the Presure and Release Model and a holistic approach to risk and vulnerability assessment. Other models not discussed herein are: The Sustainable Livelihood Framework, the UNISDR framework for disaster risk reduction, the 'onion framework', and the 'BBC conceptual framework', the last two developed by UNU-EHS (UN University, Institute for Environment and Human Security).

hazards and associated impacts).

damage) to 1 (total damage)

and environmental factors

The different definitions of vulnerability can also be viewed from a functional and subject/ object-oriented perspective i.e. considering the end-user of the scientific assessment results (e.g. technical boards, administration officers, representatives from the civil protection, international organizations, etc.) and the vulnerable entity (e.g. critical infrastructure, elderly population, communication networks, mountain ecosystems, etc.).


**BOX 2: Risk management frameworks are generally designed to answer the following**

6 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

There are multiple definitions, concepts and methods to systematize vulnerability denoting the plurality of views and meanings attached to this term. Birkmann [11] noted that 'we are still dealing with a paradox: we aim to measure vulnerability, yet we cannot define it precisely'. However, there are generally two perspectives in which vulnerability can be viewed and which are closely linked with the evolution of the concept [12]: (1) the amount of damage caused to a system by a particular hazard (technical or engineering sciences oriented perspective – dominating the disaster risk perception in the 1970s), and (2) a state that exists within a system before it encounters a hazard (social sciences oriented perspective – an alternative paradigm which uses vulnerability as a starting point for risk reduction since the 1980s). The former emphasizes 'assessments of hazards and their impacts, in which the role of human systems in mediating the outcomes of hazard events is downplayed or neglected'. The latter puts the human system on the central stage and focuses on determining the coping capacity of the society, the ability to resist, respond and recover from the impact of a natural hazard [13]. While the technical sciences perspective of vulnerability focuses primarily on physical aspects [14], the social sciences perspective takes into account various factors and parameters that influence vulnerability, such as physical, economic, social, environmental, and institutional characteristics [8]. Other approaches emphasize the need to account for additional global factors, such as globalization and climate change. Thus, the broader vulnerability assessment

The different definitions of vulnerability can also be viewed from a functional and subject/ object-oriented perspective i.e. considering the end-user of the scientific assessment results (e.g. technical boards, administration officers, representatives from the civil protection, international organizations, etc.) and the vulnerable entity (e.g. critical infrastructure, elderly

What are the probable dangers and their magnitude? (*Danger Identification*)

How often do the dangers of a given magnitude occur? (*Hazard Assessment*)

What is the possible damage to the elements at risk? (*Vulnerability Assessment*)

What are the elements at risk? (*Elements at Risk Identification*)

What is the significance of the estimated risk? (*Risk Evaluation*)

is in scope, the more interdisciplinary it becomes.

population, communication networks, mountain ecosystems, etc.).

What is the probability of damage? (*Risk Estimation*)

What should be done? (*Risk Management*)

**2.2. Vulnerability models**

**questions [10]:**

**Table 1.** General definitions of vulnerability used in risk assessment due to natural hazards and climate change

Vogel and O'Brien [17] emphasize that vulnerability is: *(a) multi-dimensional and differential* (varies for different dimensions of a single element or group of elements and from a physical context to another)*; (b) scale dependent* (with regard to the unit of analysis e.g. individual, local, regional, national etc.) *and (c) dynamic* (the characteristics that influence vulnerability are continuously changing in time and space). With regards to the first characteristic, there are generally five components (or dimensions) that need to be investigated in vulnerability assessment: (1) the physical/functional dimension (relates to the predisposition of a structure, infrastructure or service to be damaged due to the occurrence of a harmful event associated with a specific hazard); (2) the economic dimension (relates to the economic stability of a region endangered by a a loss of production, decrease of income or consumption of goods due to the occurrence of a hazard); (3) the social dimension (relates with the presence of human beings, individuals or communities, and their capacities to cope with, resist and recover from impacts of hazards); (4) the environmental dimension (refers to the interrelation between different ecosystems and their ability to cope with and recover from impacts of hazards and to tolerate stressors over time and space); (5) the political/institutional dimension (refers to those political or institutional actions e.g. livelihood diversification, risk mitigation strategies, regulation control, etc., or characteristics that determine differential coping capacities and exposure to hazards and associated impacts).

During the last decades, various schools of thinking proposed different conceptual models with the final aim of developing methods for measuring vulnerability. The following subsections give a short overview of some of the conceptual models presented in [11], such as the double structure of vulnerability, vulnerability within the context of hazard and risk, vulner‐ ability in the context of global environmental change community, the Presure and Release Model and a holistic approach to risk and vulnerability assessment. Other models not discussed herein are: The Sustainable Livelihood Framework, the UNISDR framework for disaster risk reduction, the 'onion framework', and the 'BBC conceptual framework', the last two developed by UNU-EHS (UN University, Institute for Environment and Human Security).

#### *2.2.1. The double structure of vulnerability*

According to Bohle [18] vulnerability can be seen as having an external and internal side (Figure 2). The *external* side is related to the exposure to risks and shocks and is influenced by Political Economy Approaches (e.g. social inequities, disproportionate division of assets), Human Ecology Perspectives (population dynamics and environmental management capaci‐ ties) and the Entitlement Theory (relates vulnerability to the incapacity of people to obtain or manage assets via legitimate economic means). The *internal* side is called coping and relates to the capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a hazard and is influenced by the Crisis and Conflict Theory (control of assets and resources, capacities to manage crisis situations and resolve conflicts), Action Theory Approaches (how people act and react freely as a result of social, economic or governmental constrains) and Model of Access to Assets (mitigation of vulnerability through access to assets). The conceptual framework of the double structure indicates that vulnerability cannot adequately be considered without taking into account coping1 and response capacity2 .

*2.2.2. Vulnerability within the framework of hazard and risk*

**Figure 3.** Conceptual framework to identify risk [20] in [11]

of the system which influence its resilience4

ments and adaptation.

thereby subject to potential losses [8]

of its essential basic structures and functions [8]

*2.2.3. Vulnerability in the global environmental change community*

The disaster risk community defines vulnerability as a component within the context of hazard and risk. This school usually views vulnerability, coping capacity and exposure as separate features. One example within this approach is Davidson's [19] conceptual framework, adopted in [20] and illustrated in Figure 3. This framework views risk as the sum of hazard, exposure3

Conceptual Frameworks of Vulnerability Assessments for Natural Disasters Reduction

vulnerability and capacity measures. Hazard is characterized by probability and severity, exposure is characterized by structure, population and economy, while vulnerability has a physical, social, economic and environmental dimension. Capacity and measures are related

Turner [21] developed a conceptual framework considered representative for the global environmental change community primarily due to its focus on the coupled human-environ‐ ment systems. Their definition of vulnerability encompasses exposure, sensitivity and resilience. Exposure contains a set of components (i.e. threatened elements: individuals, households, states, ecosystem, etc.) subjected to damage and characteristics of the threat (frequency, magnitude, duration). The sensitivity is determined by the human (social capital and endowments) and environmental (natural capital or biophysical endowments) conditions

A system's vulnerability to hazards consists of (Figure 4) (i) linkages to the broader human and biophysical (environmental) conditions and processes operating on the coupled system in

3 Exposure is defined as the totality of people, property, systems or other elements present in hazard zones that are

4 Resilience is the ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration

. The last component is enhanced through adjust‐

with physical planning, management as well as social – and economic capacity.

,

9

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**Figure 2.** Bohle's conceptual framework for vulnerability analysis [18] in [11]

<sup>1</sup> Coping capacity is the ability of people, organizations and systems, using available skills and resources, to face and manage adverse conditions, emergencies or disasters [8]

<sup>2</sup> Capacity is the combination of all the strengths attributes and resources available within a community, society or organization that can be used to achieve agreed goals [8]

#### *2.2.2. Vulnerability within the framework of hazard and risk*

*2.2.1. The double structure of vulnerability*

taking into account coping1

According to Bohle [18] vulnerability can be seen as having an external and internal side (Figure 2). The *external* side is related to the exposure to risks and shocks and is influenced by Political Economy Approaches (e.g. social inequities, disproportionate division of assets), Human Ecology Perspectives (population dynamics and environmental management capaci‐ ties) and the Entitlement Theory (relates vulnerability to the incapacity of people to obtain or manage assets via legitimate economic means). The *internal* side is called coping and relates to the capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a hazard and is influenced by the Crisis and Conflict Theory (control of assets and resources, capacities to manage crisis situations and resolve conflicts), Action Theory Approaches (how people act and react freely as a result of social, economic or governmental constrains) and Model of Access to Assets (mitigation of vulnerability through access to assets). The conceptual framework of the double structure indicates that vulnerability cannot adequately be considered without

8 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

.

and response capacity2

**Figure 2.** Bohle's conceptual framework for vulnerability analysis [18] in [11]

manage adverse conditions, emergencies or disasters [8]

organization that can be used to achieve agreed goals [8]

1 Coping capacity is the ability of people, organizations and systems, using available skills and resources, to face and

2 Capacity is the combination of all the strengths attributes and resources available within a community, society or

The disaster risk community defines vulnerability as a component within the context of hazard and risk. This school usually views vulnerability, coping capacity and exposure as separate features. One example within this approach is Davidson's [19] conceptual framework, adopted in [20] and illustrated in Figure 3. This framework views risk as the sum of hazard, exposure3 , vulnerability and capacity measures. Hazard is characterized by probability and severity, exposure is characterized by structure, population and economy, while vulnerability has a physical, social, economic and environmental dimension. Capacity and measures are related with physical planning, management as well as social – and economic capacity.

**Figure 3.** Conceptual framework to identify risk [20] in [11]

#### *2.2.3. Vulnerability in the global environmental change community*

Turner [21] developed a conceptual framework considered representative for the global environmental change community primarily due to its focus on the coupled human-environ‐ ment systems. Their definition of vulnerability encompasses exposure, sensitivity and resilience. Exposure contains a set of components (i.e. threatened elements: individuals, households, states, ecosystem, etc.) subjected to damage and characteristics of the threat (frequency, magnitude, duration). The sensitivity is determined by the human (social capital and endowments) and environmental (natural capital or biophysical endowments) conditions of the system which influence its resilience4 . The last component is enhanced through adjust‐ ments and adaptation.

A system's vulnerability to hazards consists of (Figure 4) (i) linkages to the broader human and biophysical (environmental) conditions and processes operating on the coupled system in

<sup>3</sup> Exposure is defined as the totality of people, property, systems or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses [8]

<sup>4</sup> Resilience is the ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions [8]

question; (ii) perturbations and stressors/stresses5 that emerge from this conditions and process‐ es; and (iii) the coupled human – environment system of concern in which vulnerability resides, including exposure and responses (i.e. coping, impacts, adjustments, and adaptation) [21].

urbanization, lack of local institutions, appropriate skills or training); and (3) *unsafe conditions* posed by the physical environment (e.g. unprotected buildings and infrastructure, dangerous slopes) or socio-economic context (e.g. lack of local institutions, prevalence of endemic diseas‐ es). In Birkmann's opinion [11], this conceptual framework is an important approach which goes beyond identification of vulnerability towards addressing its root causes and driving forces

Conceptual Frameworks of Vulnerability Assessments for Natural Disasters Reduction

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11

The authors emphasize the importance of measuring vulnerability from a comprehensive and multidisciplinary perspective. The model (Figure 5) takes into account the consequences of direct physical impacts (exposure and susceptibility) as well as indirect consequences (socioeconomic fragility and lack of resilience) of potential hazardous event. Within each category, the vulnerability factors are described with sets of indicators or indices. The model includes a control system which alters indirectly the level of risk through corrective and prospective

**Figure 5.** Conceptual framework for holistic approach to disaster risk assessment and management [23] in [11]

In this approach vulnerability is conditions by three categories of factors [23]:

**•** Physical exposure and susceptibility – regarded as hazard dependent

interventions (risk identification, risk reduction, disaster management).

**•** Fragility of the socio-economic system – non hazard dependent

**•** Lack of resilience to cope and recover – non hazard dependent

embedded in the human-environment system.

*2.2.5. A holistic approach to risk and vulnerability*

**Figure 4.** Vulnerability conceptual framework [21] in [11]

#### *2.2.4. The Pressure and Release model (PAR model)*

The model operates at different spatial (place, region, world), functional and temporal scales and takes into account the interaction of the multiple perturbations and stressor/stresses [22]. Hazards are regarded as being influenced from inside and outside of the analyzed system; however, due to their character they are commonly considered site-specific. Thus, given their complexity, hazards are located within and beyond the place of assessment. The Pressure and Release model (PAR model) is based on the commonly used equation which defines risk as a function of the hazard and vulnerability (Eq. 1). It emphasizes the underlying driving forces of vulnerability and the conditions existent in a system that contribute to disaster situations when a hazard occurs. Vulnerability is associated with these conditions at three progressive levels: (1) *Root causes*,whichcanbe,forexample,limitedaccess topower, structuresorresources;orrelated with political ideologies or economic systems; (2) *dynamic pressures* represented, for example, by demographic or social changes in time and space (e.g. rapid population decrease, rapid

<sup>5</sup>Stressisacontinuousorslowlyincreasingpressure,commonlywithintherangeofnormalvariability.Stressoftenoriginates and stressors (the sources of stress) often reside within the system [21]

urbanization, lack of local institutions, appropriate skills or training); and (3) *unsafe conditions* posed by the physical environment (e.g. unprotected buildings and infrastructure, dangerous slopes) or socio-economic context (e.g. lack of local institutions, prevalence of endemic diseas‐ es). In Birkmann's opinion [11], this conceptual framework is an important approach which goes beyond identification of vulnerability towards addressing its root causes and driving forces embedded in the human-environment system.

#### *2.2.5. A holistic approach to risk and vulnerability*

question; (ii) perturbations and stressors/stresses5

**Figure 4.** Vulnerability conceptual framework [21] in [11]

*2.2.4. The Pressure and Release model (PAR model)*

and stressors (the sources of stress) often reside within the system [21]

es; and (iii) the coupled human – environment system of concern in which vulnerability resides, including exposure and responses (i.e. coping, impacts, adjustments, and adaptation) [21].

10 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

The model operates at different spatial (place, region, world), functional and temporal scales and takes into account the interaction of the multiple perturbations and stressor/stresses [22]. Hazards are regarded as being influenced from inside and outside of the analyzed system; however, due to their character they are commonly considered site-specific. Thus, given their complexity, hazards are located within and beyond the place of assessment. The Pressure and Release model (PAR model) is based on the commonly used equation which defines risk as a function of the hazard and vulnerability (Eq. 1). It emphasizes the underlying driving forces of vulnerability and the conditions existent in a system that contribute to disaster situations when a hazard occurs. Vulnerability is associated with these conditions at three progressive levels: (1) *Root causes*,whichcanbe,forexample,limitedaccess topower, structuresorresources;orrelated with political ideologies or economic systems; (2) *dynamic pressures* represented, for example, by demographic or social changes in time and space (e.g. rapid population decrease, rapid

5Stressisacontinuousorslowlyincreasingpressure,commonlywithintherangeofnormalvariability.Stressoftenoriginates

that emerge from this conditions and process‐

In this approach vulnerability is conditions by three categories of factors [23]:


The authors emphasize the importance of measuring vulnerability from a comprehensive and multidisciplinary perspective. The model (Figure 5) takes into account the consequences of direct physical impacts (exposure and susceptibility) as well as indirect consequences (socioeconomic fragility and lack of resilience) of potential hazardous event. Within each category, the vulnerability factors are described with sets of indicators or indices. The model includes a control system which alters indirectly the level of risk through corrective and prospective interventions (risk identification, risk reduction, disaster management).

**Figure 5.** Conceptual framework for holistic approach to disaster risk assessment and management [23] in [11]

The conceptual frameworks described above are different in scope and thematic focus. The vulnerability definition encompasses exposure, coping capacities, sensitivity and adaptation responses in the model of double structure of vulnerability [18] and the global environmental change school model [21], while within the framework of hazard and risk, vulnerability is separated from these characteristics. The holistic approach and the PAR Model indicate factors and conditions of vulnerability able to measure direct physical impacts as well as indirect consequences of disasters. It is obvious that different vulnerability frameworks serve for different disciplinary groups and consequently there is no generally applicable model that can satisfy all specific needs. While our ability to understand vulnerability is enhanced by these conceptual models, only some of them result in paradigms of quantitative or qualitative vulnerability assessment. An illustration of the methods used in physical and social vulnera‐ bility evaluation is presented below.

Damages or losses caused by the occurrence of hazards can be manifold. In short term, when a disaster strikes, the primary concern are the potential losses due to casualties (fatalities, injuries and missing persons), physical (functional) consequences on services, buildings and infrastructure and direct economic loss. In long term, indirect economic consequences, social 'disturbance' and environmental degradation may become of greater importance. Many consequences cannot be measured or quantified easily. These are referred to as intangible losses (e.g. loss of social cohesion due to disruption of community, loss of reputation, psycho‐ logical consequences resulting from disaster impacts, cultural effects, etc.). In vulnerability assessment, tangible losses (which can be measured, quantified) are mostly evaluated whereas intangible losses are at best described. The difference between the two types of losses makes

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13

In general vulnerability can be measured either on a metric scale, e.g. in terms of a given currency, or a non-numerical scale, based on social values or perceptions and evaluations [24]. Direct human-social and physical losses can be described and quantified using different methodological approaches. A non-exhaustive description of frequently used methods for

The concept of social vulnerability is complex. A number of studies developed within research projects specifically dedicated to measuring social vulnerability to natural hazards (for example, see [29]) showed that there are fundamental differences between the main types of assessment approaches. These are largely based on qualitative or quantitative research

There are two distinct perspectives on the social dimension in vulnerability assessment: (1) one refers to *intangible losses* and the related elements at risk whose value cannot be easily counted or valued in economic terms. Such factors may be categorized, for example (but are not limited to) in environmental (biodiversity, natural scenery/tourist attractions, environ‐ mental assets used in economic activity, etc.), cultural (structures, historical material, sites of particular cultural value/importance, etc.), institutional (loss of both human and material resources related to the functioning of public institutions including health, law enforcement, education and maintenance). Another interpretation refers to (2) *the underlying socio-economic factors in a society causing or producing vulnerability*. Methods in this category may look into the fabric of society to assess its preparedness and coping/adaptive capacity. A wide range of factors may be considered and there is no generally accepted methodology that covers all

One central role in social vulnerability assessment is attributed to indicator based methods. In [11] a vulnerability *indicator for natural hazards* is defined as as 'a variable which is an opera‐ tional representation of a characteristic or quality of a system able to provide information regarding the susceptibility, coping capacity and resilience of a system to an impact of an albeit ill-defined event linked with a hazard of natural. Social and environmental indicators research is common in the field of sustainable science. For example, United Nations Development Program's Human Development Index [30], proposes a composite indicator of human well-

their aggregation in a comprehensive consequence analysis very challenging.

physical and social vulnerability assessment is given below.

traditions which have important differences in their related paradigms.

aspects of social vulnerability. A review of methodologies can be found in [11].

*2.3.1. Social vulnerability assessment*

#### **2.3. Vulnerability assessment methods**

In the last decades, methods of vulnerability assessment have been developed and tested within the framework of risk analysis, most of them designed for a specific hazard. Research has demonstrated that irrespective of the type of assessment (natural - or social science based), there are some key issues related with the definition of the vulnerable system that must be addressed. Of particular importance is to establish the objective and (time/space) scale of analysis. This will dictate the type of approach (method) employed taking into account data and resource availability. The most detailed vulnerability assessments are conducted at local level, often of individuals or households, but the data required at this level is not readily available. For decisional purposes, regional or national-level assessment can be employed, resulting though in inherent loss of information. An additional issue is the problem of down or up-scaling which implies different levels of generalization and assumption making. This is particularly important when the quality and quantity of data is low because it influences greatly the certainty of the outcome.

Vulnerability is not only site-specific and scale dependent but also varies for different types of hazards (e.g. floods, landslides, earthquakes, tsunamis), due to process characteristics (e.g. generation mode, rate of onset, intensity, area affected, temporal persistence in the environ‐ ment, etc.) and type of element (or set of elements) at risk. Consequently, the methods used for the evaluation of earthquake vulnerability are not directly transferable to droughts, for example. Vulnerability of exposed objects or systems may vary also for similar processes ([24], [25]). Furthermore, it is acknowledged ([3], [24], [26]) that various types of the same process (e.g. debris flow vs. rock falls for landslide processes, fluvial floods vs. pluvial floods for flood processes) can result in different damage patterns.

An additional factor that must be considered in vulnerability assessment is the target of analysis i.e. the elements at risk. In general terms, these are the objects or systems which pose the potential to be adversely affected [27] by a hazardous event. In [28] the elements at risk are defined as the objects, population, activities and processes that may be differently affected by hazardous phenomena, in a particular area, either directly or indirectly.

Damages or losses caused by the occurrence of hazards can be manifold. In short term, when a disaster strikes, the primary concern are the potential losses due to casualties (fatalities, injuries and missing persons), physical (functional) consequences on services, buildings and infrastructure and direct economic loss. In long term, indirect economic consequences, social 'disturbance' and environmental degradation may become of greater importance. Many consequences cannot be measured or quantified easily. These are referred to as intangible losses (e.g. loss of social cohesion due to disruption of community, loss of reputation, psycho‐ logical consequences resulting from disaster impacts, cultural effects, etc.). In vulnerability assessment, tangible losses (which can be measured, quantified) are mostly evaluated whereas intangible losses are at best described. The difference between the two types of losses makes their aggregation in a comprehensive consequence analysis very challenging.

In general vulnerability can be measured either on a metric scale, e.g. in terms of a given currency, or a non-numerical scale, based on social values or perceptions and evaluations [24]. Direct human-social and physical losses can be described and quantified using different methodological approaches. A non-exhaustive description of frequently used methods for physical and social vulnerability assessment is given below.

#### *2.3.1. Social vulnerability assessment*

The conceptual frameworks described above are different in scope and thematic focus. The vulnerability definition encompasses exposure, coping capacities, sensitivity and adaptation responses in the model of double structure of vulnerability [18] and the global environmental change school model [21], while within the framework of hazard and risk, vulnerability is separated from these characteristics. The holistic approach and the PAR Model indicate factors and conditions of vulnerability able to measure direct physical impacts as well as indirect consequences of disasters. It is obvious that different vulnerability frameworks serve for different disciplinary groups and consequently there is no generally applicable model that can satisfy all specific needs. While our ability to understand vulnerability is enhanced by these conceptual models, only some of them result in paradigms of quantitative or qualitative vulnerability assessment. An illustration of the methods used in physical and social vulnera‐

12 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

In the last decades, methods of vulnerability assessment have been developed and tested within the framework of risk analysis, most of them designed for a specific hazard. Research has demonstrated that irrespective of the type of assessment (natural - or social science based), there are some key issues related with the definition of the vulnerable system that must be addressed. Of particular importance is to establish the objective and (time/space) scale of analysis. This will dictate the type of approach (method) employed taking into account data and resource availability. The most detailed vulnerability assessments are conducted at local level, often of individuals or households, but the data required at this level is not readily available. For decisional purposes, regional or national-level assessment can be employed, resulting though in inherent loss of information. An additional issue is the problem of down or up-scaling which implies different levels of generalization and assumption making. This is particularly important when the quality and quantity of data is low because it influences

Vulnerability is not only site-specific and scale dependent but also varies for different types of hazards (e.g. floods, landslides, earthquakes, tsunamis), due to process characteristics (e.g. generation mode, rate of onset, intensity, area affected, temporal persistence in the environ‐ ment, etc.) and type of element (or set of elements) at risk. Consequently, the methods used for the evaluation of earthquake vulnerability are not directly transferable to droughts, for example. Vulnerability of exposed objects or systems may vary also for similar processes ([24], [25]). Furthermore, it is acknowledged ([3], [24], [26]) that various types of the same process (e.g. debris flow vs. rock falls for landslide processes, fluvial floods vs. pluvial floods for flood

An additional factor that must be considered in vulnerability assessment is the target of analysis i.e. the elements at risk. In general terms, these are the objects or systems which pose the potential to be adversely affected [27] by a hazardous event. In [28] the elements at risk are defined as the objects, population, activities and processes that may be differently affected by

hazardous phenomena, in a particular area, either directly or indirectly.

bility evaluation is presented below.

greatly the certainty of the outcome.

processes) can result in different damage patterns.

**2.3. Vulnerability assessment methods**

The concept of social vulnerability is complex. A number of studies developed within research projects specifically dedicated to measuring social vulnerability to natural hazards (for example, see [29]) showed that there are fundamental differences between the main types of assessment approaches. These are largely based on qualitative or quantitative research traditions which have important differences in their related paradigms.

There are two distinct perspectives on the social dimension in vulnerability assessment: (1) one refers to *intangible losses* and the related elements at risk whose value cannot be easily counted or valued in economic terms. Such factors may be categorized, for example (but are not limited to) in environmental (biodiversity, natural scenery/tourist attractions, environ‐ mental assets used in economic activity, etc.), cultural (structures, historical material, sites of particular cultural value/importance, etc.), institutional (loss of both human and material resources related to the functioning of public institutions including health, law enforcement, education and maintenance). Another interpretation refers to (2) *the underlying socio-economic factors in a society causing or producing vulnerability*. Methods in this category may look into the fabric of society to assess its preparedness and coping/adaptive capacity. A wide range of factors may be considered and there is no generally accepted methodology that covers all aspects of social vulnerability. A review of methodologies can be found in [11].

One central role in social vulnerability assessment is attributed to indicator based methods. In [11] a vulnerability *indicator for natural hazards* is defined as as 'a variable which is an opera‐ tional representation of a characteristic or quality of a system able to provide information regarding the susceptibility, coping capacity and resilience of a system to an impact of an albeit ill-defined event linked with a hazard of natural. Social and environmental indicators research is common in the field of sustainable science. For example, United Nations Development Program's Human Development Index [30], proposes a composite indicator of human wellbeing, as well as gender disparity and poverty among nations. Similarly, the World Bank develops indicators that stress the links between environmental conditions and human welfare, especially in developing nations, in order to monitor national progress toward a more sustainable future [31]. In natural hazards risk management framework, many of the indicator based vulnerability studies are relying on measuring attributes or factors influencing vulner‐ ability rather than understanding relationships or processes [32].

The composition and selection of vulnerability indicators is complex. Ideally, there are nine different phases in the development of indicators (Figure 6) [33]: first, a relevant *goal* must be selected and defined. Then, it is necessary to perform a *scoping process* in order to identify the target group and the associated purposes for which the indicators will be used. The third phase presumes the identification of an appropriate *conceptual framework*, which means structuring the potential themes and indicators. The fourth phase implies the definition of *selection criteria* for the potential indicators (see below). The fifth phase is the *identification of a set of potential indicators*. Finally, there is the evaluation and selection of each indicator (phase 6) taking into account the criteria developed at an earlier stage, which results in a final set of indicators. The outcome of previous phases must be validated against real data, which in many cases proofs to be the most challenging part of the process due to difficulties in measuring or quantifying some of the intangible elements or aspect of vulnerability (e.g. social cohesion, confidence, etc.). The last phases of the indicator development imply the preparation of a report and assessment of the indicator performance which may results in a re-evaluation of the results (iterative process).

**Figure 6.** Development process of vulnerability indicators (based on the general figure according to [33] in [11])

11

Some important quality criteria for indicator and indicator development, as presented in [34], are: sensitivity (sensitive and specific to the underlying phenomenon), relevance, measurabil‐ ity, analytical and statistical soundness, validity/ accuracy, reproducibility, and cost effective‐ ness. The indicators should also measure only important key-elements instead of trying to

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15

In order to facilitate the use of indicators for decision-makers and summarize complex or multidimensional issues, sets of indices or composite indicators were developed. These are mathe‐ matical combinations of sub-indicators that can be easier to interpret than trying to find a trend in many separate indicators. However, there are no generally accepted methods of index aggregation (index construction) and their interpretation is not unique. An extensive descrip‐ tion of construction methods and issues related with the combination of indicators is presented

An example set of factors used to assess social vulnerability at country level based on four

**•** *Disaster Deficit Index* (DDI; expected financial loss and capacity). The key factors describing economic resilience are insurance and reassurance payments, reserve funds for disasters, aid and donations, new taxes, budgetary reallocations, external credit and internal credit. **•** *Local Disaster Index (*LDI; cumulative impact of smaller scale natural hazard events). A uniform distribution of disasters in the area under consideration gives a high value, whereas

**•** *Prevalent Vulnerability Index* (PVI; composed of exposure, socio-economic fragility and lack of social resilience). Each of the three components has eight sub-indices. The indices are for example related to population and urban growth, poverty and inequality, import/exports, arable land/land degradation, unemployment, debts, human development index, gender

**•** *Risk Management Index* (RMI; disaster management/mitigation strategies/systems). This index is composed of four factors estimating capacity related to risk identification, risk reduction, disaster management and financial protection. Sub-indices are related to the quality of, amongst others, loss inventories, monitoring and mapping, public informa‐ tion and training, land use planning, standards, retrofitting, emergency planning and response, community preparedness, reconstruction, decentralized organization and

If in social vulnerability assessment the focus is on determining the indicators of societies' coping capacities to any natural hazard and identifying the vulnerable groups or individuals based on these indicators, in physical (or technical) vulnerability assessment the role of hazard and their impacts is emphasized, while the human systems in mediating the outcomes is minimized. In the technical/engineering literature for natural hazards, physical vulnerability is generally defined on a scale ranging from 0 (no loss/damage) to 1 (total loss/damage),

a high concentration of disasters in a low number of places a low value.

inequality, governance and environmental sustainability.

indicate all aspects, and permit data comparability (across areas and/or over time).

in [34].

main indices is [11]:

budget allocation.

*2.3.2. Physical vulnerability assessment*

Some important quality criteria for indicator and indicator development, as presented in [34], are: sensitivity (sensitive and specific to the underlying phenomenon), relevance, measurabil‐ ity, analytical and statistical soundness, validity/ accuracy, reproducibility, and cost effective‐ ness. The indicators should also measure only important key-elements instead of trying to indicate all aspects, and permit data comparability (across areas and/or over time).

In order to facilitate the use of indicators for decision-makers and summarize complex or multidimensional issues, sets of indices or composite indicators were developed. These are mathe‐ matical combinations of sub-indicators that can be easier to interpret than trying to find a trend in many separate indicators. However, there are no generally accepted methods of index aggregation (index construction) and their interpretation is not unique. An extensive descrip‐ tion of construction methods and issues related with the combination of indicators is presented in [34].

An example set of factors used to assess social vulnerability at country level based on four main indices is [11]:


#### *2.3.2. Physical vulnerability assessment*

11

being, as well as gender disparity and poverty among nations. Similarly, the World Bank develops indicators that stress the links between environmental conditions and human welfare, especially in developing nations, in order to monitor national progress toward a more sustainable future [31]. In natural hazards risk management framework, many of the indicator based vulnerability studies are relying on measuring attributes or factors influencing vulner‐

14 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

The composition and selection of vulnerability indicators is complex. Ideally, there are nine different phases in the development of indicators (Figure 6) [33]: first, a relevant *goal* must be selected and defined. Then, it is necessary to perform a *scoping process* in order to identify the target group and the associated purposes for which the indicators will be used. The third phase presumes the identification of an appropriate *conceptual framework*, which means structuring the potential themes and indicators. The fourth phase implies the definition of *selection criteria* for the potential indicators (see below). The fifth phase is the *identification of a set of potential indicators*. Finally, there is the evaluation and selection of each indicator (phase 6) taking into account the criteria developed at an earlier stage, which results in a final set of indicators. The outcome of previous phases must be validated against real data, which in many cases proofs to be the most challenging part of the process due to difficulties in measuring or quantifying some of the intangible elements or aspect of vulnerability (e.g. social cohesion, confidence, etc.). The last phases of the indicator development imply the preparation of a report and assessment of the indicator performance which may results in a re-evaluation of the results

**1. Define goals**

**INDICATOR DEVELOPMENT**

**Figure 6.** Development process of vulnerability indicators (based on the general figure according to [33] in [11])

**2. Scoping**

**5. Identify potential indicators**

**3. Indicator framework selection**

**4. Define selection criteria**

ability rather than understanding relationships or processes [32].

**6. Final set of indicators selection**

**7. Analyse indicator results**

**8. Prepare and present report**

**9. Assess indicator performance**

(iterative process).

If in social vulnerability assessment the focus is on determining the indicators of societies' coping capacities to any natural hazard and identifying the vulnerable groups or individuals based on these indicators, in physical (or technical) vulnerability assessment the role of hazard and their impacts is emphasized, while the human systems in mediating the outcomes is minimized. In the technical/engineering literature for natural hazards, physical vulnerability is generally defined on a scale ranging from 0 (no loss/damage) to 1 (total loss/damage), representing the degree of loss/potential damage of the element at risk (see Table 1). The evaluation of vulnerability and the combination of the hazard and the vulnerability to obtain the risk differs between natural phenomena. However, the majority of models see vulnerability as being dependent both on the acting agent (physical impact of a hazard event) and the exposed element (structural or physical characteristics of the vulnerable object). The most common expressions of physical vulnerability for different types of hazards (landslides, floods, earthquakes) are: vulnerability curves (stage-damage functions), fragility curves, damage matrices and vulnerability indicators [35]. In recent decades, research on flood vulnerability assessment has advanced substantially (especially with the aid of computational techniques) and different modeling approaches ranging from post-event damage observations to laboratory-based experiments and physical modeling have been developed. One major applications of flood vulnerability analysis is the development of guidelines for reducing structural vulnerability for different types of properties. Likewise, the results of these studies are used in spatial development strategies (spatial planning) and for identification of the elements or areas where damages would be expected in case of flood occurrence. There are two main approaches of flood vulnerability assessment: one (1) focuses on the economic damage and is essentially a quantification of the expected or actual damages to a structure expressed in monetary terms or through an evaluation of the percentage of the expected loss; (2) the other, deals with the physical vulnerability of individual structures and on the estima‐ tion of the likelihood of occurrence of physical damages or collapse of a single element (e.g. a building). Within the last category, two general methods can be identified:

to the inundation depth (Figure 7). One limitation in their use is the assessment of the degree of damage based solely on one characteristic of the exposed element/group of elements (e.g. building type). Likewise, the flood damage influencing parameter e.g. inundation depth, may not be the only hazard indicator that contributes to the quantity of losses [39]. In [40] the importance of further influencing factors like 'duration of inunda‐ tion, sediment concentration, availability and information content of flood warning and the quality of external response in a flood situation' are emphasized. For static floods (slow moving water) the depth is considered to be sufficient for the analysis, but for dynamic

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17

**Figure 7.** Example of flood damage curves showing damage to structures, contents and total damage as a function of

In HAZUS-MH Flood Model [42] the latter parameter is directly considered. A velocity-depth function is included indicating if building collapse has to be assumed. A threshold for collapse corresponding to 100% damage is set, while below this threshold the damage is estimated based on the inundation level only. The model also takes into account the effect of warning which is assessed based on a 'day-curve'. If a public response rate of 100% is assumed, a maximum of 35% of damage reduction can be achieved depending on the time of warning [26]. The flood hazard module addresses both riverine and coastal floods; flash-floods are not

The Swiss risk concept from the Nationale Platform Naturgefahren (PLANAT) defines three intensity classes for flood vulnerability analysis, based on flood depth and velocity which are

floods, velocity is regarded as more important.

inundation depths [41]

included in the model's capability.

used in spatial planning regulations (Table 2).

**Empirical methods** are based on the analysis of observed consequences (collection of actual flood damage information after the event) through the use of interviews, questionnaires and field mapping. The main advantage of these methods is the use of real data. However, the results are very much dependent on the respondents' risk perception for the first two - and data availability (especially for deriving stage-damage curves) for the last collection method.

In **analytical methods** (i) different flood parameters (duration, velocity, impact pressure, etc.) are directly controlled during laboratory experiments and their effects on the structures are quantified; (ii) numerical models and computer simulation techniques are used to estimate the reliability of a structure and/or calculate its probability of failure (usually hydrologic and hydraulic modeling of the floodplain is a pre-requisite) [36]. This type of approaches are resource demanding (time and money) but allow for a better understanding of the relation between flood intensity and degree of damage for an exposed structure with definite charac‐ teristics. Moreover, due to data/resources requirement, they can only be used for assessment of individual structures.

The key parameters used in order to quantify physical vulnerability to floods are related with the forces (buoyancy, hydrostatic pressure and dynamic pressure) that flooding is likely to exert on a structure (e.g. building, bridge, dam, etc.). Directly linked with these forces are the characteristics of the damaging agent (water) which are reflected in a number of actions on the exposed structure: hydrostatic, hydrodynamic, erosion, buoyancy, etc. ([37] in [38]).

The most used approach for assessing and modeling direct flood damages is the stagedamage functions which relates the relative or absolute damage for a certain class of objects to the inundation depth (Figure 7). One limitation in their use is the assessment of the degree of damage based solely on one characteristic of the exposed element/group of elements (e.g. building type). Likewise, the flood damage influencing parameter e.g. inundation depth, may not be the only hazard indicator that contributes to the quantity of losses [39]. In [40] the importance of further influencing factors like 'duration of inunda‐ tion, sediment concentration, availability and information content of flood warning and the quality of external response in a flood situation' are emphasized. For static floods (slow moving water) the depth is considered to be sufficient for the analysis, but for dynamic floods, velocity is regarded as more important.

representing the degree of loss/potential damage of the element at risk (see Table 1). The evaluation of vulnerability and the combination of the hazard and the vulnerability to obtain the risk differs between natural phenomena. However, the majority of models see vulnerability as being dependent both on the acting agent (physical impact of a hazard event) and the exposed element (structural or physical characteristics of the vulnerable object). The most common expressions of physical vulnerability for different types of hazards (landslides, floods, earthquakes) are: vulnerability curves (stage-damage functions), fragility curves, damage matrices and vulnerability indicators [35]. In recent decades, research on flood vulnerability assessment has advanced substantially (especially with the aid of computational techniques) and different modeling approaches ranging from post-event damage observations to laboratory-based experiments and physical modeling have been developed. One major applications of flood vulnerability analysis is the development of guidelines for reducing structural vulnerability for different types of properties. Likewise, the results of these studies are used in spatial development strategies (spatial planning) and for identification of the elements or areas where damages would be expected in case of flood occurrence. There are two main approaches of flood vulnerability assessment: one (1) focuses on the economic damage and is essentially a quantification of the expected or actual damages to a structure expressed in monetary terms or through an evaluation of the percentage of the expected loss; (2) the other, deals with the physical vulnerability of individual structures and on the estima‐ tion of the likelihood of occurrence of physical damages or collapse of a single element (e.g. a

16 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

building). Within the last category, two general methods can be identified:

of individual structures.

**Empirical methods** are based on the analysis of observed consequences (collection of actual flood damage information after the event) through the use of interviews, questionnaires and field mapping. The main advantage of these methods is the use of real data. However, the results are very much dependent on the respondents' risk perception for the first two - and data availability (especially for deriving stage-damage curves) for the last collection method. In **analytical methods** (i) different flood parameters (duration, velocity, impact pressure, etc.) are directly controlled during laboratory experiments and their effects on the structures are quantified; (ii) numerical models and computer simulation techniques are used to estimate the reliability of a structure and/or calculate its probability of failure (usually hydrologic and hydraulic modeling of the floodplain is a pre-requisite) [36]. This type of approaches are resource demanding (time and money) but allow for a better understanding of the relation between flood intensity and degree of damage for an exposed structure with definite charac‐ teristics. Moreover, due to data/resources requirement, they can only be used for assessment

The key parameters used in order to quantify physical vulnerability to floods are related with the forces (buoyancy, hydrostatic pressure and dynamic pressure) that flooding is likely to exert on a structure (e.g. building, bridge, dam, etc.). Directly linked with these forces are the characteristics of the damaging agent (water) which are reflected in a number of actions on the

The most used approach for assessing and modeling direct flood damages is the stagedamage functions which relates the relative or absolute damage for a certain class of objects

exposed structure: hydrostatic, hydrodynamic, erosion, buoyancy, etc. ([37] in [38]).

**Figure 7.** Example of flood damage curves showing damage to structures, contents and total damage as a function of inundation depths [41]

In HAZUS-MH Flood Model [42] the latter parameter is directly considered. A velocity-depth function is included indicating if building collapse has to be assumed. A threshold for collapse corresponding to 100% damage is set, while below this threshold the damage is estimated based on the inundation level only. The model also takes into account the effect of warning which is assessed based on a 'day-curve'. If a public response rate of 100% is assumed, a maximum of 35% of damage reduction can be achieved depending on the time of warning [26]. The flood hazard module addresses both riverine and coastal floods; flash-floods are not included in the model's capability.

The Swiss risk concept from the Nationale Platform Naturgefahren (PLANAT) defines three intensity classes for flood vulnerability analysis, based on flood depth and velocity which are used in spatial planning regulations (Table 2).


**v.** The lack of historical damage databases – usually only events which cause extensive

**vi.** Non-physical factors influence the vulnerability of people (e.g. early warning, hazard

Landslide vulnerability assessment approaches range significantly due to various foci and objectives addressed. Some consider vulnerability within the landslide risk management framework, others evaluate exclusively physical vulnerability. Three general types of meth‐ odologies can be identified (without excluding the possibility of other classification schemes): **Qualitative methods** ([47], [48], [35]) - given a particular landslide type and the characteristics of the elements at risk, the appropriate vulnerability factor is assessed by expert judgment, field mapping or based on historical records. These methods are flexible (e.g. indicator based methods) valuable and easy to use/understand by decision makers. However, a major limitation of this approach is that most of the data have to be assumed and there is no direct

As an example, in [47] an empirical GIS-based geomorphological approach for landslide and risk analysis was proposed, using stereoscopic aerial photographs and field mapping in order to represent the changes in distribution and shape of landslides and assess their expected frequency of occurrence and intensity. The damages were classified in three classes using a qualitative relationship between landslide intensity/type and their consequences: *superficial* (aesthetic, minor) damage where the functionality of the elements at risk is not compromised and damage can be repaired, rapidly and at low costs; *functional* (medium) damage, where the functionality of the structures is compromised, and the damage takes time and large resources to be fixed; *structural* (total) damage, where buildings or transportation routes are severely or completely damaged, and require extensive (and costly) work to be fixed (demolition and

**Semi-quantitative methods** are reducing the level of generalization in comparison with qualitative methods. They are flexible and can, to a certain degree, reduce subjectivity, compared with the methods mentioned above. Within this category, damage matrices, for example, are composed by classified intensities and stepwise damage levels. In [49] damage matrices were suggested based on damaging factors and the resistance of the elements at risk to the impact of landslides. Figure 8 shows a correlation, in terms of vulnerability, between exposed elements and the characteristics of the hazard. The applicability of this method, requires statistical analysis of detailed records on landslides and their consequences [50]. This

**Quantitative methods** ([51], [52], [53], [54]) are mostly applied at local scale (often, for individual structures) due to complexity of procedures involved and detailed data require‐ ments. Quantitative methods are usually employed by engineers or actors involved in technical decision making, as they allow for a more explicit objective output. The results can be directly integrated in a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) also taking into account the uncertainty in vulnerability analysis. The procedures involved can rely on i) expert judgment

(heuristic), ii) damage records (empirical) or iii) statistical analysis (probabilistic).

(quantified) relation between hazard intensities and degree of damage.

and risk perception, etc.)

reconstruction may be required).

proves to be a challenge in data scarce environments.

damage are recorded and data about the type and extent of damage is often missing

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**Table 2.** Intensity classes based on flood depth and velocity from PLANAT in [26]

Damages caused by landslides to population, environment and built-up areas are significantly less than for other natural hazards due to the inherent characteristic of the process. However, the extent of these losses is frequently underestimated especially when landslides are associ‐ ated with the occurrence of floods or earthquakes (their consequences tend to be aggregated). Generally, vulnerability to landslides depends on a variety of factors like: runout distance; volume and velocity of sliding; pressure caused by the movement; height of deposition; elements at risk (e.g. different structures), their nature and their proximity to the slide; elements at risk (e.g. persons), their proximity to the slide, the nature of the building/roads they are in [43].

Research in the field of landslide hazard and risk ([24], [44], [45],[46]) has demonstrated that in contrast to other natural processes (flooding, earthquakes) landslide vulnerability is more difficult to assess due to a number of reason, such as:


**v.** The lack of historical damage databases – usually only events which cause extensive damage are recorded and data about the type and extent of damage is often missing

**Intensity class**

[43].

Low h < 0.5 m or

Middle 2 m > h > 0.5 m or

High h > 2 m or

v x h < 0.5 m2/s

2 m2/s > v x h > 0.5 m2/s

v x h > 2 m2/s

**Table 2.** Intensity classes based on flood depth and velocity from PLANAT in [26]

difficult to assess due to a number of reason, such as:

human life constitutes a special case)

**iv.** The variability in spatial and temporal vulnerability

significantly

mechanisms of failure and mobility, size, shape, etc.)

**Criteria Description**

18 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

have to be expected

buildings is improbable

Damages caused by landslides to population, environment and built-up areas are significantly less than for other natural hazards due to the inherent characteristic of the process. However, the extent of these losses is frequently underestimated especially when landslides are associ‐ ated with the occurrence of floods or earthquakes (their consequences tend to be aggregated). Generally, vulnerability to landslides depends on a variety of factors like: runout distance; volume and velocity of sliding; pressure caused by the movement; height of deposition; elements at risk (e.g. different structures), their nature and their proximity to the slide; elements at risk (e.g. persons), their proximity to the slide, the nature of the building/roads they are in

Research in the field of landslide hazard and risk ([24], [44], [45],[46]) has demonstrated that in contrast to other natural processes (flooding, earthquakes) landslide vulnerability is more

**i.** The complexity and the wide range of variety of landslide processes (landslides are

**ii.** The lack of systematic methods for expressing landslide intensity - there is no general

**iii.** The quantitative heterogeneity of vulnerability of different elements at risk for

determined by different predisposing and triggering factors which results in various

indicator of landslide intensity (e.g. for rock falls, impact pressure or volume can be used whereas for debris flow deposit height is common; other indicators such as flow velocity are rarely considered) and in practice data scarcity reduces their number

qualitatively similar landslide mechanisms due to their intrinsic characteristics (here,

Persons are barely at risk and only low damages at buildings or disruption

Persons outside of buildings are at risk and damage to buildings can occur while persons in buildings are quite safe and sudden destruction of

Persons inside and outside of buildings are at risk and the destruction of buildings is possible or events with lower intensity occur but with higher

frequency and persons outside of buildings are at risk

**vi.** Non-physical factors influence the vulnerability of people (e.g. early warning, hazard and risk perception, etc.)

Landslide vulnerability assessment approaches range significantly due to various foci and objectives addressed. Some consider vulnerability within the landslide risk management framework, others evaluate exclusively physical vulnerability. Three general types of meth‐ odologies can be identified (without excluding the possibility of other classification schemes):

**Qualitative methods** ([47], [48], [35]) - given a particular landslide type and the characteristics of the elements at risk, the appropriate vulnerability factor is assessed by expert judgment, field mapping or based on historical records. These methods are flexible (e.g. indicator based methods) valuable and easy to use/understand by decision makers. However, a major limitation of this approach is that most of the data have to be assumed and there is no direct (quantified) relation between hazard intensities and degree of damage.

As an example, in [47] an empirical GIS-based geomorphological approach for landslide and risk analysis was proposed, using stereoscopic aerial photographs and field mapping in order to represent the changes in distribution and shape of landslides and assess their expected frequency of occurrence and intensity. The damages were classified in three classes using a qualitative relationship between landslide intensity/type and their consequences: *superficial* (aesthetic, minor) damage where the functionality of the elements at risk is not compromised and damage can be repaired, rapidly and at low costs; *functional* (medium) damage, where the functionality of the structures is compromised, and the damage takes time and large resources to be fixed; *structural* (total) damage, where buildings or transportation routes are severely or completely damaged, and require extensive (and costly) work to be fixed (demolition and reconstruction may be required).

**Semi-quantitative methods** are reducing the level of generalization in comparison with qualitative methods. They are flexible and can, to a certain degree, reduce subjectivity, compared with the methods mentioned above. Within this category, damage matrices, for example, are composed by classified intensities and stepwise damage levels. In [49] damage matrices were suggested based on damaging factors and the resistance of the elements at risk to the impact of landslides. Figure 8 shows a correlation, in terms of vulnerability, between exposed elements and the characteristics of the hazard. The applicability of this method, requires statistical analysis of detailed records on landslides and their consequences [50]. This proves to be a challenge in data scarce environments.

**Quantitative methods** ([51], [52], [53], [54]) are mostly applied at local scale (often, for individual structures) due to complexity of procedures involved and detailed data require‐ ments. Quantitative methods are usually employed by engineers or actors involved in technical decision making, as they allow for a more explicit objective output. The results can be directly integrated in a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) also taking into account the uncertainty in vulnerability analysis. The procedures involved can rely on i) expert judgment (heuristic), ii) damage records (empirical) or iii) statistical analysis (probabilistic).


Based on the questionnaire results, fragility curves were produced which relate the flow volume to damage probabilities (Figures 9). It should be noted that in this study probabilites were derived based on the respondents experience only (qualitative data) with no statistical processing of damage observations or analytical/numerical modeling. The results were compared to known events in Scotland (UK) and the Republic of Korea. The major limitation of this method is the high degree of subjectivity, however it advances expert knowledge which might be in some cases the only/most appropriate source of information about damages caused

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**Figure 9.** Fragility curves 'forced' to unity and manually extrapolated to the next order of magnitude for volume (local roads). The vertical lines are added at 200, 500, 1000, 5000 and 10000 m3 (illustration only for 'limited damage'

In reference [53], the author performed a study of a well-documented debris flow event which occurred in the Austrian Alps (August, 1997) and derived vulnerability curves for buildings located on the fan of the torrent based on the intensity of the phenomenon and the damage ratio. The intensity was approximated by deposit height and the susceptibility of the element at risk (i.e. buildings) by material of construction (brick, masonry, and concrete). Figure 10 shows the curve produced together with other existing curves for comparison. The application of this vulnerability function is limited to process intensities expressed as deposit height ≤ 2.5 – 3 m which means that the curve is not relevant for intensities which exceed this value. Nevertheless, the authors argue that such high process intensities generally result in a total loss of the building since the reparation costs will exceed the expenditure necessary for a new

by the impact of landslides.

curves) [55]

construction [53].

**Figure 8.** Structural vulnerability matrix [49]

One example of quantitative expert judgment used to evaluate physical vulnerability of roads to debris flows was used in [55]. 147 respondents from 17 countries were asked to use their expert knowledge to assess the probability of a certain damage state being exceeded given that a volume of debris impacts a road (Table 3).


**Table 3.** Damage state definition [55]

Based on the questionnaire results, fragility curves were produced which relate the flow volume to damage probabilities (Figures 9). It should be noted that in this study probabilites were derived based on the respondents experience only (qualitative data) with no statistical processing of damage observations or analytical/numerical modeling. The results were compared to known events in Scotland (UK) and the Republic of Korea. The major limitation of this method is the high degree of subjectivity, however it advances expert knowledge which might be in some cases the only/most appropriate source of information about damages caused by the impact of landslides.

One example of quantitative expert judgment used to evaluate physical vulnerability of roads to debris flows was used in [55]. 147 respondents from 17 countries were asked to use their expert knowledge to assess the probability of a certain damage state being exceeded given that

20 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

**Description of probabilities**

Improbable(remote) Damage state only exceeded in exceptional circumstances 0.00001

expected to occur under normal circumstances

Likely Damage state expected to be exceeded 0.01

Very likely Damage state almost certainly exceeded 0.1

Highly improbable Damage state almost certainly exceeded, but cannot be

Very unlikely Damage state will only be exceeded in very unusual circumstances

Unlikely Damage state may be exceeded, but would not be

ruled out

**Descriptor Description Values for analysis**

0.000001

0.001

0.001

a volume of debris impacts a road (Table 3).

**Figure 8.** Structural vulnerability matrix [49]

**Table 3.** Damage state definition [55]

**Figure 9.** Fragility curves 'forced' to unity and manually extrapolated to the next order of magnitude for volume (local roads). The vertical lines are added at 200, 500, 1000, 5000 and 10000 m3 (illustration only for 'limited damage' curves) [55]

In reference [53], the author performed a study of a well-documented debris flow event which occurred in the Austrian Alps (August, 1997) and derived vulnerability curves for buildings located on the fan of the torrent based on the intensity of the phenomenon and the damage ratio. The intensity was approximated by deposit height and the susceptibility of the element at risk (i.e. buildings) by material of construction (brick, masonry, and concrete). Figure 10 shows the curve produced together with other existing curves for comparison. The application of this vulnerability function is limited to process intensities expressed as deposit height ≤ 2.5 – 3 m which means that the curve is not relevant for intensities which exceed this value. Nevertheless, the authors argue that such high process intensities generally result in a total loss of the building since the reparation costs will exceed the expenditure necessary for a new construction [53].

**Figure 10.** Relationship between debris flow intensity and vulnerability is expressed by a second order polynomial function for flow height > 2.5 m. Results from the study are indicated by black dots, the corresponding mean vulnera‐ bility is indicated by red dots [53]

In another study [51], a scenario-based method derived from a probabilistic approach to regional vulnerability assessment [56] was used. The authors defined vulnerability as a function of landslide intensity and the susceptibility of vulnerable elements (see Eq. 2).

$$\mathbf{V} = \mathbf{I} \bullet \mathbf{S} \tag{2}$$

*ϑi* is the *i*-th on *ns* susceptibility factor (each defined in the range) contributing to the category

*ks* is the spatial impact ratio (equal to the ratio between the area pertaining to the category that is affected by the landslide and the total area pertaining to the category); *rK* and *IK* are kinetic factors and *rM* and *IM* are kinematic factors. The proposed methodology provided a

In natural hazards risk management, decisions regarding the risk associated with a particular hazard are essentially enacted based on limited information and resources. In order to improve this process, experts started to investigate the effects of uncertainty on risk (and its determi‐ nants) qualitatively or quantitatively and communicate their results to decision-makers. This one-way approach toward finding solutions for advancing decision making proves out to be insufficient in contrast to the complexity of the problems at hand, especially when dealing with inherent uncertainties or unforeseen changes in the human-environmental system. Neverthe‐ less, effort are being made to reduce the effects of uncertainty on vulnerability (and conse‐ quently, risk), particularly related with the data and models used. For example, representing hazard damage potential by only one parameter (e.g. for floods – depth of inundation) can result in overestimations of vulnerability and subsequently in un-economic investments in mitigation countermeasures. One possibility to overcome this problem would be to reduce the uncertainty in the input data by using data-mining approaches (e.g. tree-structured models) for the selection of the most important damage-influencing parameters [39]. Other examples would be the use of scenario analysis for seismic vulnerability and its probable damages in order to develop a hierarchy of effective factors in earthquake vulnerability [57] or testing the performance of different structures (reliability analysis) subjected to the impact of landslides with various intensities through the use of traditional methods like Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), First Order Second Moment (FOSM), First Order - /Second Order Reliability Method (FORM/SORM). However, the selection of the most appropriate uncertainty modeling approach depends on the level of complexity required by the scope of analysis or the use of

Generally, uncertainties in decision and risk analysis can be divided into two categories [10]: those that stem from 'real' variability in known (or observable) processes or phenomena (e.g. height or the ethnicity of an arbitrary individual in a specified population or the distribution of velocities in a sliding mass, etc.) and those which reside from our limited knowledge about fundamental phenomena (e.g. the nature of some earthquake mechanism, the effect of water

framework for the quantification of uncertainties in vulnerability assessment.

**3. Uncertainty in vulnerability analysis**

*I* =*ks* ∙(*rK* ∙ *IK* + *rM* ∙ *IM* ) (4)

Conceptual Frameworks of Vulnerability Assessments for Natural Disasters Reduction

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23

susceptibility

and,

where,

the final results.

Susceptibility is defined as 'the lack of inherent capacity of the elements in the spatial extension under investigation to preserve their physical integrity and functionality in the course of the physical interaction with a generic sliding mass' and is independent of the characteristics of the landslide [51]. The susceptibility model is able to accommodate any factor dictated by the analyzed category of elements at risk. In this study, the susceptibility factors taken into account are: (a) resistance and state of maintenance for structures, and (b) persons in open space and vehicles, population density, income, age, and persons in structures, for individuals. For landslide intensity, a composite parameter is derived based on the kinetic – (related with the damage caused by the impact energy of the sliding mass) and kinematic (accounts for the effects of size-linked features of a reference landslide) characteristics of the interaction between the sliding mass and the reference area proposed. Models for quantification of susceptibility (Eq. 2) and intensity (Eq. 3) are illustrated below:

$$S = 1 - \prod\_{i=1}^{ns} (1 - \cdot 8i) \tag{3}$$

where,

*ϑi* is the *i*-th on *ns* susceptibility factor (each defined in the range) contributing to the category susceptibility

and,

$$I = \text{ks} \quad \text{\textbullet (r}K \text{ }\bullet \text{IK} + rM \text{ }\bullet \text{IM)} \tag{4}$$

where,

**Figure 10.** Relationship between debris flow intensity and vulnerability is expressed by a second order polynomial function for flow height > 2.5 m. Results from the study are indicated by black dots, the corresponding mean vulnera‐

22 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

In another study [51], a scenario-based method derived from a probabilistic approach to regional vulnerability assessment [56] was used. The authors defined vulnerability as a function of landslide intensity and the susceptibility of vulnerable elements (see Eq. 2).

Susceptibility is defined as 'the lack of inherent capacity of the elements in the spatial extension under investigation to preserve their physical integrity and functionality in the course of the physical interaction with a generic sliding mass' and is independent of the characteristics of the landslide [51]. The susceptibility model is able to accommodate any factor dictated by the analyzed category of elements at risk. In this study, the susceptibility factors taken into account are: (a) resistance and state of maintenance for structures, and (b) persons in open space and vehicles, population density, income, age, and persons in structures, for individuals. For landslide intensity, a composite parameter is derived based on the kinetic – (related with the damage caused by the impact energy of the sliding mass) and kinematic (accounts for the effects of size-linked features of a reference landslide) characteristics of the interaction between the sliding mass and the reference area proposed. Models for quantification of susceptibility

> *S* =1 - ∏ *i*=1 *ns*

V = I S· (2)

(1 - *ϑi*) (3)

bility is indicated by red dots [53]

(Eq. 2) and intensity (Eq. 3) are illustrated below:

where,

*ks* is the spatial impact ratio (equal to the ratio between the area pertaining to the category that is affected by the landslide and the total area pertaining to the category); *rK* and *IK* are kinetic factors and *rM* and *IM* are kinematic factors. The proposed methodology provided a framework for the quantification of uncertainties in vulnerability assessment.

### **3. Uncertainty in vulnerability analysis**

In natural hazards risk management, decisions regarding the risk associated with a particular hazard are essentially enacted based on limited information and resources. In order to improve this process, experts started to investigate the effects of uncertainty on risk (and its determi‐ nants) qualitatively or quantitatively and communicate their results to decision-makers. This one-way approach toward finding solutions for advancing decision making proves out to be insufficient in contrast to the complexity of the problems at hand, especially when dealing with inherent uncertainties or unforeseen changes in the human-environmental system. Neverthe‐ less, effort are being made to reduce the effects of uncertainty on vulnerability (and conse‐ quently, risk), particularly related with the data and models used. For example, representing hazard damage potential by only one parameter (e.g. for floods – depth of inundation) can result in overestimations of vulnerability and subsequently in un-economic investments in mitigation countermeasures. One possibility to overcome this problem would be to reduce the uncertainty in the input data by using data-mining approaches (e.g. tree-structured models) for the selection of the most important damage-influencing parameters [39]. Other examples would be the use of scenario analysis for seismic vulnerability and its probable damages in order to develop a hierarchy of effective factors in earthquake vulnerability [57] or testing the performance of different structures (reliability analysis) subjected to the impact of landslides with various intensities through the use of traditional methods like Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), First Order Second Moment (FOSM), First Order - /Second Order Reliability Method (FORM/SORM). However, the selection of the most appropriate uncertainty modeling approach depends on the level of complexity required by the scope of analysis or the use of the final results.

Generally, uncertainties in decision and risk analysis can be divided into two categories [10]: those that stem from 'real' variability in known (or observable) processes or phenomena (e.g. height or the ethnicity of an arbitrary individual in a specified population or the distribution of velocities in a sliding mass, etc.) and those which reside from our limited knowledge about fundamental phenomena (e.g. the nature of some earthquake mechanism, the effect of water level fluctuation on clay slope stability, etc.). The former is known as aleatory (inherent or stochastic) uncertainty and cannot be reduced. The latter, epistemic uncertainty, includes measurement uncertainty, statistical uncertainty (due to limited information), and model uncertainty, which can be reduced, for example, by increasing the probing samples or by improving the measurement methods or modeling algorithms. Other types of classification systems, together with a review of methods and simulation techniques for uncertainty treatment are critically discussed and illustrated in a work performed by the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI), in [34]. Uncertainty can be addressed from (1) an integrative perspective, where vulnerability is registered by exposure to hazards but also resides in the resilience of the system experiencing the hazard [58] (bottom-up oriented vulnerability assessment). In this context, uncertainty is associated with future changes (in frequency and magnitude of hazards but also in climatic, environmental and socio-economic patterns) characterized by unknowable risks to which communities must learn to adapt. This approach is centered on the human systems' coping capacity and promotes vulnerability reduction through enhancing resilience to future change. Conversely, (2) a direct approach towards reduction of (epistemic) uncertainty is developed within the technical field (assimilated to deductive, top-down vulnerability assessments), where uncertainty models are defined for each component of vulnerability and the sources of uncertainty categorized [45]. Figure 11 shows how these two approaches of dealing with uncertainty can inform climate adaptation policy: one is (epistemic) uncertainty 'reducer' while the other is uncertainty 'accepting' (due to issues like, for example, timescale and planning horizons, the unit of analysis being considered and the development status of the region or country) [59].

Table 4 illustrates an example of uncertainty sources in physical vulnerability analysis of buildings. It is obvious that these will vary with the methodology used and the quality and

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**Epistemic** Intensity assessment (using proxies e.g. depth of material, velocity, volume, impact pressure, etc.) Characterization of elements at risk (e.g. structural-morphological characteristics, state of

**Aleatory** Spatial variability of parameters\* (e.g. landslide intensities, population density, etc.)

Within the general risk assessment framework, uncertainty propagates not only from one component of risk to another but also within the process stages of vulnerability analysis. This is schematically described in a classification system for vulnerability estimation proposed in

**Figure 12.** Classification system for vulnerability estimation. Uncertainty is associated with each process stage [34]

According to the authors, uncertainty associated with the input data (depending on the type, quantity and quality), propagates through the model, which also contains a degree of uncer‐ tainty due to, for example, expert judgment, mathematical model or basic assumptions. The

Vulnerability model (selection of parameters, mathematical model, calculation limitations)

**Type Source**

maintenance, strategic relevance, etc.)

Expert judgement

\*also related with the scale of investigation

[34] and represented in Figure 12.

Estimations of buildings' value and damage costs

**Table 4.** Sources of uncertainty in physical vulnerability to landslides (e.g. for buildings)

quantity of data available.

**Figure 11.** "Top-down" and "bottom-up" approaches used to inform adaptation to climate change [59]

Table 4 illustrates an example of uncertainty sources in physical vulnerability analysis of buildings. It is obvious that these will vary with the methodology used and the quality and quantity of data available.


**Table 4.** Sources of uncertainty in physical vulnerability to landslides (e.g. for buildings)

level fluctuation on clay slope stability, etc.). The former is known as aleatory (inherent or stochastic) uncertainty and cannot be reduced. The latter, epistemic uncertainty, includes measurement uncertainty, statistical uncertainty (due to limited information), and model uncertainty, which can be reduced, for example, by increasing the probing samples or by improving the measurement methods or modeling algorithms. Other types of classification systems, together with a review of methods and simulation techniques for uncertainty treatment are critically discussed and illustrated in a work performed by the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI), in [34]. Uncertainty can be addressed from (1) an integrative perspective, where vulnerability is registered by exposure to hazards but also resides in the resilience of the system experiencing the hazard [58] (bottom-up oriented vulnerability assessment). In this context, uncertainty is associated with future changes (in frequency and magnitude of hazards but also in climatic, environmental and socio-economic patterns) characterized by unknowable risks to which communities must learn to adapt. This approach is centered on the human systems' coping capacity and promotes vulnerability reduction through enhancing resilience to future change. Conversely, (2) a direct approach towards reduction of (epistemic) uncertainty is developed within the technical field (assimilated to deductive, top-down vulnerability assessments), where uncertainty models are defined for each component of vulnerability and the sources of uncertainty categorized [45]. Figure 11 shows how these two approaches of dealing with uncertainty can inform climate adaptation policy: one is (epistemic) uncertainty 'reducer' while the other is uncertainty 'accepting' (due to issues like, for example, timescale and planning horizons, the unit of analysis being

24 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

considered and the development status of the region or country) [59].

**Figure 11.** "Top-down" and "bottom-up" approaches used to inform adaptation to climate change [59]

Within the general risk assessment framework, uncertainty propagates not only from one component of risk to another but also within the process stages of vulnerability analysis. This is schematically described in a classification system for vulnerability estimation proposed in [34] and represented in Figure 12.

**Figure 12.** Classification system for vulnerability estimation. Uncertainty is associated with each process stage [34]

According to the authors, uncertainty associated with the input data (depending on the type, quantity and quality), propagates through the model, which also contains a degree of uncer‐ tainty due to, for example, expert judgment, mathematical model or basic assumptions. The uncertainty in the output depends on the two previous process stages as well as the uncertainty related with the interpretation of the results.

With regards to uncertainty in vulnerability analysis, Gall [63] emphasizes the importance of knowledge quality assessment - 'uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are mandatory for maximizing methodological transparency and soundness, and hence the acceptance of research findings; despite this demand, both analyses are often missing in vulnerability assessment'. However, progress has been done, for example, in the field of technical (struc‐ tural) vulnerability (mostly, for hazards like floods and earthquakes), where empirical as well as statistical (probabilistic) methods aided by GIS and advanced computational models are

Conceptual Frameworks of Vulnerability Assessments for Natural Disasters Reduction

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/55538

27

To allow for an improved decision making process through the treatment of uncertainty, first the joint effort between end-users and experts must shift towards a more transparent, partic‐ ipative and open process. The role of the scientist seen as 'speaking truth to power' is defective as it implies that all uncertainties can be treated. Conversely, experts should clearly commu‐ nicate the limitations of their findings as well as continue to investigate the effects of uncer‐ tainty on risk and its determinants in order support the community to face future challenges

This study was prepared in the frame of the research project Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists (CHANGES), a Marie Curie Initial Training Network, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Programme

and Thomas Glade1\*

[1] CRED EM-DAT. The International Disaster Database. http://www.emdat.be/accessed

1 Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Austria

used to estimate uncertainty in vulnerability and its components.

in dealing with natural hazards and risk and global change.

FP7/2007-2013 under Grant Agreement No. 263953.

, Dagmar Schröter2

\*Address all correspondence to: thomas.glade@univie.ac.at

**Acknowledgements**

**Author details**

Roxana L. Ciurean1

**References**

2 IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

20 August (2012).

#### **4. Conclusions**

The most important goal in developing tools for measuring vulnerability is their use in natural hazards risk reduction strategies, thus applying them in decision making processes. In this context, it is necessary to know what is the objective of the assessment, what is the target group of any particular approach, who is using the results and what is their understanding of the outcome. The methods of vulnerability assessment presented herein are mere exemplification of the complexity and wide range of approaches that can be applied in natural hazards disaster risk management. However, based on these a number of observations may be formulated.

Vulnerability defined considering physical exposure or social-economical determinants only cannot encompass the complexity of effects caused by the impact of a natural hazard on an element or group of elements at risk (especially for systems like urban develop‐ ments, communities, etc.). In an editorial for vulnerability to natural hazards [60] ad‐ dressed the question of integration between natural and social scientific approaches based on a number of research studies. Their findings show that, studies that are dedicated to different components of vulnerability (e.g. frequency and magnitude of a hazard, ele‐ ments at risk, exposure, coping and adaptation capacities, etc.) and therefore use differ‐ ent methodological approaches, are relatively similar in scope. Hence it is important to clearly describe and define which components of risk and/or vulnerability assessment are considered in each individual case study. The aim is to communicate without losing the perspective either of the approaches advances. Thus, a step forward towards an integra‐ tive vulnerability assessment might be to strengthen the dialogue between different groups of experts in natural hazard vulnerability/risk assessment through exchange of views about definitions, concept and underlying worldviews and values [60].

In terms of vulnerability/risk assessment outcomes, there are three main types of methods (results) - quantitative, semi-quantitative and qualitative, all with benefits and drawbacks. The main difference between quantitative and qualitative methods lies in the fact that quantitative assessments provide a more explicit objective framework which may be conducive to improv‐ ing decision making process. However, the most appropriate tool depends on the decision problem at hand (for example, qualitative vulnerability assessment can be more cost effective, less time consuming and easier to understand for non-technical stakeholders), the objective (including scale) of the analysis and the quality/quantity of available data. Hence there is no general preference for qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitative approaches [61]. One must also acknowledge that there is no quantitative vulnerability/risk assessment totally devoid of expert judgment; quantitative vulnerability/risk analysis rather provides a framework for making systematic judgment [62]. It is the quality and quantity of subjectivity that affects the overall outcome of the analysis.

With regards to uncertainty in vulnerability analysis, Gall [63] emphasizes the importance of knowledge quality assessment - 'uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are mandatory for maximizing methodological transparency and soundness, and hence the acceptance of research findings; despite this demand, both analyses are often missing in vulnerability assessment'. However, progress has been done, for example, in the field of technical (struc‐ tural) vulnerability (mostly, for hazards like floods and earthquakes), where empirical as well as statistical (probabilistic) methods aided by GIS and advanced computational models are used to estimate uncertainty in vulnerability and its components.

To allow for an improved decision making process through the treatment of uncertainty, first the joint effort between end-users and experts must shift towards a more transparent, partic‐ ipative and open process. The role of the scientist seen as 'speaking truth to power' is defective as it implies that all uncertainties can be treated. Conversely, experts should clearly commu‐ nicate the limitations of their findings as well as continue to investigate the effects of uncer‐ tainty on risk and its determinants in order support the community to face future challenges in dealing with natural hazards and risk and global change.

#### **Acknowledgements**

uncertainty in the output depends on the two previous process stages as well as the uncertainty

26 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

The most important goal in developing tools for measuring vulnerability is their use in natural hazards risk reduction strategies, thus applying them in decision making processes. In this context, it is necessary to know what is the objective of the assessment, what is the target group of any particular approach, who is using the results and what is their understanding of the outcome. The methods of vulnerability assessment presented herein are mere exemplification of the complexity and wide range of approaches that can be applied in natural hazards disaster risk management. However, based on these a number of observations may be formulated.

Vulnerability defined considering physical exposure or social-economical determinants only cannot encompass the complexity of effects caused by the impact of a natural hazard on an element or group of elements at risk (especially for systems like urban develop‐ ments, communities, etc.). In an editorial for vulnerability to natural hazards [60] ad‐ dressed the question of integration between natural and social scientific approaches based on a number of research studies. Their findings show that, studies that are dedicated to different components of vulnerability (e.g. frequency and magnitude of a hazard, ele‐ ments at risk, exposure, coping and adaptation capacities, etc.) and therefore use differ‐ ent methodological approaches, are relatively similar in scope. Hence it is important to clearly describe and define which components of risk and/or vulnerability assessment are considered in each individual case study. The aim is to communicate without losing the perspective either of the approaches advances. Thus, a step forward towards an integra‐ tive vulnerability assessment might be to strengthen the dialogue between different groups of experts in natural hazard vulnerability/risk assessment through exchange of views about

In terms of vulnerability/risk assessment outcomes, there are three main types of methods (results) - quantitative, semi-quantitative and qualitative, all with benefits and drawbacks. The main difference between quantitative and qualitative methods lies in the fact that quantitative assessments provide a more explicit objective framework which may be conducive to improv‐ ing decision making process. However, the most appropriate tool depends on the decision problem at hand (for example, qualitative vulnerability assessment can be more cost effective, less time consuming and easier to understand for non-technical stakeholders), the objective (including scale) of the analysis and the quality/quantity of available data. Hence there is no general preference for qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitative approaches [61]. One must also acknowledge that there is no quantitative vulnerability/risk assessment totally devoid of expert judgment; quantitative vulnerability/risk analysis rather provides a framework for making systematic judgment [62]. It is the quality and quantity of subjectivity that affects the

definitions, concept and underlying worldviews and values [60].

overall outcome of the analysis.

related with the interpretation of the results.

**4. Conclusions**

This study was prepared in the frame of the research project Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists (CHANGES), a Marie Curie Initial Training Network, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under Grant Agreement No. 263953.

#### **Author details**

Roxana L. Ciurean1 , Dagmar Schröter2 and Thomas Glade1\*


2 IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

#### **References**

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[42] FEMA Hazus, U.S. Multi-Hazards Flood Model. http://www.fema.gov/hazusac‐ cessed 28 August (2012).

[28] Van Westen, CJ, Van Asch TWJ. Landslide hazard and risk zonation-why is it still so difficult? Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment (2006). , 65(2),

[29] Consortium CapHaz-Net. Social Capacity Building for Natural Hazards Toward More Resilient Societies. http://caphaz-net.org/project-overviewaccessed 25 August

[30] UNDP. United Nations Development Program's Human Development Index (HDI).

[31] Cutter, S. L, Boruff, B. J, & Shirley, W. L. Social Vulnerability to Environmental Haz‐

[32] Consortium CapHaz-Net. Social Capacity Building for Natural Hazards Toward More Resilient Societies, Social vulnerability to Natural Hazards, Deliverable D4.1,

[33] Maclaren, V. W. Urban Sustainability Reporting. Journal of the American Planning

[34] Consortium MOVE. Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe, Guidelines for development of different methods, Deliverable D6, MOVE

[35] Kappes, M. S, Papathoma-köhle, M, & Keiler, M. Assessing physical vulnerability for multi-hazards using an indicator-based methodology. Applied Geography (2012). ,

[36] Apel, H, Thieken, A. H, Merz, B, & Blöschl, G. Flood risk assessment and associated

[37] Kelman, I, & Spence, R. Flood Failure Flowchart for Buildings. Proceedings of the In‐

[38] Consortium ENSURE. Enhancing resilience of communities and territories facing natural and na-tech hazards, Methodologies to assess vulnerability of structural sys‐

[39] Merz, B, Kreibich, H, & Lall, U. What are the important flood damage-influencing

[40] Büchele, B, Kreibich, H, Kron, A, Thieken, A, Ihringer, J, Oberle, P, et al. Flood-risk mapping: contributions towards an enhanced assessment of extreme events and as‐

[41] University of Technology Hamburg TFlood Manager E-learning. http://daad.wb.tu-

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pert judgement approach. EGU General Assembly April, (2012). Vienna, Austria; 2012., 22-27.

**Chapter 2**

**Disaster Management Discourse in Bangladesh: A Shift**

**Mitigation Approach Through Institutional Partnerships**

The discourse of disaster management has undergone significant changes in recent deca‐ des and their effects have been profoundly felt in the developing world, particularly in terms of reduction in the loss of human lives. In this chapter, we concentrate on the evo‐ lution of disaster management approaches in Bangladesh and the method of their imple‐ mentation by mobilizing institutions as a case in the developing world. The geographical location of Bangladesh in South Asia, at the confluence of three large river systems – the Brahmaputra, the Ganges, and the Meghna – and north of the Bay of Bengal, renders it one of the most vulnerable places to floods and cyclones. Human-induced climate change exacerbates the problem, with its already manifested effects and the predicted rise in sea level of 0.3 m to 0.5 m by 2050 [1, 2, 3]. Climate models have revealed that the effects of climate change are not only affecting individual countries, but resulting in increased cli‐ mate variations at regional levels [4]. Bangladesh, as part of South Asia, is likely to experi‐

ence more variations in climate regimes, as well as more extreme weather events.

Bangladesh is the most densely populated country in the world, except city states, with more than 1,000 people per sq km [5]. Agriculture, which provides a quarter of the gross domestic product (GDP), depends largely on timely monsoon rainfall and regularity in seasonal fluctua‐ tions. In the period 1970–2004, about 0.7 million people lost their lives due to natural disasters, and economic losses totaled about US \$5.5 billion [6, 7, 8, 9]. The cyclone of 1970, in the coastal areas of what was then East Pakistan, alone claimed over half a million lives. Again, the 1991 and 2007 cyclones caused the loss of about 149,000 and 3,406 people respectively. In recent years, the frequency of extreme floods has increased, as has the corresponding economic loss. The flood in

> © 2013 Haque and Uddin; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

> © 2013 Haque and Uddin; licensee InTech. This is a paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

**from Post-Event Response to the Preparedness and**

C. Emdad Haque and M. Salim Uddin

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/54973

**1. Introduction**

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter


## **Disaster Management Discourse in Bangladesh: A Shift from Post-Event Response to the Preparedness and Mitigation Approach Through Institutional Partnerships**

C. Emdad Haque and M. Salim Uddin

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/54973

#### **1. Introduction**

pert judgement approach. EGU General Assembly April, (2012). Vienna, Austria;

[56] Uzielli, M, Duzgun, S, & Vangelsten, B. V. A First-Order Second Moment framework for probabilistic estimation of vulnerability to landslides. Proceedings ECI Confer‐

[57] Jahanpeyma, M. H. Parvinnezhad Hokmabadi D, Rahmanizadeh A. Analytical Eval‐ uation of Uncertainty Propagation in Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Tehran Using GIS. Journal Civil Eng Urban (2011). http://www.ojceu.ir/mainaccessed 28 Au‐

[58] Berkes, F. Understanding uncertainty and reducing vulnerability: lessons from resil‐

[59] Dessai, S, & Hulme, M. Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities? Climate

[60] Fuchs, S, Kuhlicke, C, & Meyer, V. Editorial for the special issue: vulnerability to nat‐ ural hazards-the challenge of integration. Natural Hazards (2011). , 58(2), 609-619. [61] Hufschmidt, G, Glade, T, Vulnerability analysis in geomorphic risk assessment. In: Alcántara-Ayala, I, & Goudie, A. S. (eds.). Geomorphological Hazards and Disaster

[62] Ho, K, & Leroi, E. W. R. Quantitative risk assessment- application, myths and future direction, Keynote Paper. Proceedings of the International Conference on Geotechni‐

[63] Gall, M. Indices of social vulnerability to natural hazards: a comparative evaluation,

cal Engineering (GeoEng 2000), November (2000). Melbourne, Australia.

PhD Thesis. Columbia City: University of South Carolina; (2007).

ence on Geohazards, Lillehammer, Norway, June (2006). , 18-21.

32 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

ience thinking. Natural Hazards (2007). , 41(2), 283-295.

Prevention: Cambridge University Press; (2010)., 233-243.

2012., 22-27.

gust 2012)., 1(1), 05-09.

Policy (2004). , 4(2), 107-128.

The discourse of disaster management has undergone significant changes in recent deca‐ des and their effects have been profoundly felt in the developing world, particularly in terms of reduction in the loss of human lives. In this chapter, we concentrate on the evo‐ lution of disaster management approaches in Bangladesh and the method of their imple‐ mentation by mobilizing institutions as a case in the developing world. The geographical location of Bangladesh in South Asia, at the confluence of three large river systems – the Brahmaputra, the Ganges, and the Meghna – and north of the Bay of Bengal, renders it one of the most vulnerable places to floods and cyclones. Human-induced climate change exacerbates the problem, with its already manifested effects and the predicted rise in sea level of 0.3 m to 0.5 m by 2050 [1, 2, 3]. Climate models have revealed that the effects of climate change are not only affecting individual countries, but resulting in increased cli‐ mate variations at regional levels [4]. Bangladesh, as part of South Asia, is likely to experi‐ ence more variations in climate regimes, as well as more extreme weather events.

Bangladesh is the most densely populated country in the world, except city states, with more than 1,000 people per sq km [5]. Agriculture, which provides a quarter of the gross domestic product (GDP), depends largely on timely monsoon rainfall and regularity in seasonal fluctua‐ tions. In the period 1970–2004, about 0.7 million people lost their lives due to natural disasters, and economic losses totaled about US \$5.5 billion [6, 7, 8, 9]. The cyclone of 1970, in the coastal areas of what was then East Pakistan, alone claimed over half a million lives. Again, the 1991 and 2007 cyclones caused the loss of about 149,000 and 3,406 people respectively. In recent years, the frequency of extreme floods has increased, as has the corresponding economic loss. The flood in

© 2013 Haque and Uddin; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2013 Haque and Uddin; licensee InTech. This is a paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

July 2004 was the most devastating – with an economic loss of about US \$2.2 billion [5]. In terms of GDP, this loss was less than what the world's poorest countries faced during the 1985–99 dis‐ asters – a loss of 13.4% of combined GDP [10]. But the loss in Bangladesh amounted to an im‐ mense step backwards in development efforts. The floods in 2007 inundated about 36% of the total area in 57 out of 64 districts [11] and affected at least 4.5 million people [12].

policy analysis seemed useful. Obtaining reliable quantitative data on activities of both government and NGOs is a chronic problem in Bangladesh; our research therefore applied

Disaster Management Discourse in Bangladesh: A Shift from Post-Event Response to the Preparedness and…

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/54973

35

Both primary and secondary data sources were used for empirical investigation and policy analysis. To collect the primary data from local communities, we applied a case study approach which employed participatory rural appraisal tools, such as focus group discussions (FGDs), household interviews and key informant interviews, in two coastal communities of Bangla‐ desh severely affected by Cyclone Sidr. We analyzed data procured from a total of 162 households distributed across eight villages, which were randomly selected to conduct the interviews and FGDs. We received 100% response from the targeted households for household interview. A random sampling procedure was followed to select households from the complete list of households in the selected villages for interview. Households were propor‐ tionately selected according to the size of the villages, and household heads were interviewed. Eight FGDs were carried out by administering a semi-structured questionnaire to each village.

For policy analysis, we relied chiefly on secondary data, which were supplemented by primary data. Because Bangladesh has experienced numerous devastating cyclones, as well as longlasting floods that have caused immense suffering to people and damage to properties in recent decades, we relied on secondary data on the relevant disaster response and management policies. Official documents from the government and donors, study reports from NGOs and other organizations, journal articles, newspaper clippings, TV reports and documentaries, and internet resources from reliable and responsible sources provided additional information for our analysis. To ensure openness in discussing sensitive issues, we used informal discussions with stakeholders at different levels. Through personal contacts and over the internet we collected reports and documents from government agencies, NGOs, and donors in Bangla‐ desh, such as the Bangladesh Disaster Preparedness Centre (BDPC), the Disaster Forum, the Disaster Management Bureau, the Sustainable Development Resource Centre, and the United

In recent decades, government agencies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and local communities in Bangladesh have undertaken various measures to mitigate the impacts of natural disasters, including floods and cyclones, on the people, economy and society. The concept of developing national preparedness, as opposed to post-event response, to disasters like floods and cyclones evolved after the floods of 1988 and the devastating cyclone of 1991. The main argument behind this shift was that if people were well prepared for frequent disasters they would minimize their impacts, resulting in a reduced need for relief and rehabilitation. It was also strongly felt by the public institutions that if disaster preparedness could be integrated in the socio-economic development process at household, community, regional and national levels, it would build the long-term capacity of the community to mitigate risk and vulnerability to disasters [17]. The aim of the shift also included changing

qualitative, rather than quantitative, tools and techniques.

Nations Development Program (UNDP).

**3. Shifting approaches in disaster management**

Because of the extreme vulnerability of the people in general and of the economy to natural dis‐ asters, various regimes of the government of Bangladesh (pre- and post-independence) have developed an institutional infrastructure to deal with natural hazards and their potential losses [13, 14]. Traditionally, the disaster management approach in the country has been to respond to disaster in the aftermath of the events. Nonetheless, the ever-increasing human and economic costs have raised serious questions about such approaches. Also, flood-disaster management has relied heavily on structural engineering and post-flood relief operations. Overall, such a post-facto approach has failed to effectively deal with the problems of disaster loss.

In recent years, there has been a shift to recognize the critical roles of non-structural measures as well as pre-disaster mitigation and preparedness. These initiatives recognize the roles of differ‐ ent stakeholders. For example, the Disaster Management Act of 1998 acknowledges the capaci‐ ty of affected populations [15]: "An event, natural or man-made, sudden or progressive, that seriously disrupts the functioning of a society, causing … such severity that the affected com‐ munity has to respond by taking exceptional measures and is on a scale that exceeds the ability of the affected people to cope with using only its own resources." Disaster management war‐ rants more than relief and recovery: it should be part of development planning, without which the loss of life and property is likely to intensify. It is recognized that institutional partnerships can be effective when they involve all stakeholders – government, local communities, NGO/ CBOs, media, the private sector, academia, neighboring countries, and donor communities.

In this study, we examine the extent and effectiveness of institutional partnership from the perspective of a shift from a managerial approach to an approach using participatory, collective decision-making and resource-sharing to manage disaster risk. Since community members are the direct and most seriously affected victims, effective and sustainable partnership requires a change from a partnership approach based on equality to a focus on the community [16]. Our central concerns are to assess who decides, at what level, and how. There has been only very limited analysis of the shifting approaches and of how institutions at different levels are presently functioning in Bangladesh. Is this mechanism based on partnership, with collective decision-making? Is a culture of working together on a national cause such as disaster management evolving? How functional are these elaborate institutional mechanisms? What is the role of the private sector or the knowledge stakeholders? How can an effective partner‐ ship be built into disaster management? These are questions we examine in this chapter.

#### **2. Methodology**

Our research examines whether the elaborate institutional mechanisms of disaster manage‐ ment in Bangladesh reflect the partnership of stakeholders. For this purpose, social science policy analysis seemed useful. Obtaining reliable quantitative data on activities of both government and NGOs is a chronic problem in Bangladesh; our research therefore applied qualitative, rather than quantitative, tools and techniques.

July 2004 was the most devastating – with an economic loss of about US \$2.2 billion [5]. In terms of GDP, this loss was less than what the world's poorest countries faced during the 1985–99 dis‐ asters – a loss of 13.4% of combined GDP [10]. But the loss in Bangladesh amounted to an im‐ mense step backwards in development efforts. The floods in 2007 inundated about 36% of the

Because of the extreme vulnerability of the people in general and of the economy to natural dis‐ asters, various regimes of the government of Bangladesh (pre- and post-independence) have developed an institutional infrastructure to deal with natural hazards and their potential losses [13, 14]. Traditionally, the disaster management approach in the country has been to respond to disaster in the aftermath of the events. Nonetheless, the ever-increasing human and economic costs have raised serious questions about such approaches. Also, flood-disaster management has relied heavily on structural engineering and post-flood relief operations. Overall, such a

In recent years, there has been a shift to recognize the critical roles of non-structural measures as well as pre-disaster mitigation and preparedness. These initiatives recognize the roles of differ‐ ent stakeholders. For example, the Disaster Management Act of 1998 acknowledges the capaci‐ ty of affected populations [15]: "An event, natural or man-made, sudden or progressive, that seriously disrupts the functioning of a society, causing … such severity that the affected com‐ munity has to respond by taking exceptional measures and is on a scale that exceeds the ability of the affected people to cope with using only its own resources." Disaster management war‐ rants more than relief and recovery: it should be part of development planning, without which the loss of life and property is likely to intensify. It is recognized that institutional partnerships can be effective when they involve all stakeholders – government, local communities, NGO/ CBOs, media, the private sector, academia, neighboring countries, and donor communities.

In this study, we examine the extent and effectiveness of institutional partnership from the perspective of a shift from a managerial approach to an approach using participatory, collective decision-making and resource-sharing to manage disaster risk. Since community members are the direct and most seriously affected victims, effective and sustainable partnership requires a change from a partnership approach based on equality to a focus on the community [16]. Our central concerns are to assess who decides, at what level, and how. There has been only very limited analysis of the shifting approaches and of how institutions at different levels are presently functioning in Bangladesh. Is this mechanism based on partnership, with collective decision-making? Is a culture of working together on a national cause such as disaster management evolving? How functional are these elaborate institutional mechanisms? What is the role of the private sector or the knowledge stakeholders? How can an effective partner‐ ship be built into disaster management? These are questions we examine in this chapter.

Our research examines whether the elaborate institutional mechanisms of disaster manage‐ ment in Bangladesh reflect the partnership of stakeholders. For this purpose, social science

**2. Methodology**

total area in 57 out of 64 districts [11] and affected at least 4.5 million people [12].

34 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

post-facto approach has failed to effectively deal with the problems of disaster loss.

Both primary and secondary data sources were used for empirical investigation and policy analysis. To collect the primary data from local communities, we applied a case study approach which employed participatory rural appraisal tools, such as focus group discussions (FGDs), household interviews and key informant interviews, in two coastal communities of Bangla‐ desh severely affected by Cyclone Sidr. We analyzed data procured from a total of 162 households distributed across eight villages, which were randomly selected to conduct the interviews and FGDs. We received 100% response from the targeted households for household interview. A random sampling procedure was followed to select households from the complete list of households in the selected villages for interview. Households were propor‐ tionately selected according to the size of the villages, and household heads were interviewed. Eight FGDs were carried out by administering a semi-structured questionnaire to each village.

For policy analysis, we relied chiefly on secondary data, which were supplemented by primary data. Because Bangladesh has experienced numerous devastating cyclones, as well as longlasting floods that have caused immense suffering to people and damage to properties in recent decades, we relied on secondary data on the relevant disaster response and management policies. Official documents from the government and donors, study reports from NGOs and other organizations, journal articles, newspaper clippings, TV reports and documentaries, and internet resources from reliable and responsible sources provided additional information for our analysis. To ensure openness in discussing sensitive issues, we used informal discussions with stakeholders at different levels. Through personal contacts and over the internet we collected reports and documents from government agencies, NGOs, and donors in Bangla‐ desh, such as the Bangladesh Disaster Preparedness Centre (BDPC), the Disaster Forum, the Disaster Management Bureau, the Sustainable Development Resource Centre, and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).

#### **3. Shifting approaches in disaster management**

In recent decades, government agencies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and local communities in Bangladesh have undertaken various measures to mitigate the impacts of natural disasters, including floods and cyclones, on the people, economy and society. The concept of developing national preparedness, as opposed to post-event response, to disasters like floods and cyclones evolved after the floods of 1988 and the devastating cyclone of 1991. The main argument behind this shift was that if people were well prepared for frequent disasters they would minimize their impacts, resulting in a reduced need for relief and rehabilitation. It was also strongly felt by the public institutions that if disaster preparedness could be integrated in the socio-economic development process at household, community, regional and national levels, it would build the long-term capacity of the community to mitigate risk and vulnerability to disasters [17]. The aim of the shift also included changing disaster management approaches and measures from structural engineering interventions to the social dimensions and community partnerships.

In Bangladesh, at the national level, four high-profile bodies were established for the multisectoral coordination of emergencies associated with environmental disasters as well as disaster management in general: the National Disaster Management Council (NDMC), headed by the prime minister; the Inter-Ministerial Disaster Management Coordination Committee (IMDMCC), led by the minister of food and disaster management; the National Disaster Management Advisory Committee (NDMAC), headed by a specialist nominated by the prime minister; and a Parliamentary Standing Committee on Disaster Management to supervise national policies and programs. The common missions of these bodies have been to provide policy and management guidance and the macro-coordination of activities, particularly relief

Disaster Management Discourse in Bangladesh: A Shift from Post-Event Response to the Preparedness and…

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/54973

37

Presently, the lead actor in disaster management is the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR) until 2002. It has the role of inter-ministerial planning of disaster management and coordination and of responding in the event of a disaster. Under the MoDMR, there are two line agencies, the Disaster Management Bureau (DMB) and the Directorate of Relief and Rehabilitation (DRR). The DMB is a small professional unit at the national level that performs specialist functions, working with district and *upazila* (sub-district) administrations and line ministries under the overall guidance of the IMDMCC. It is a catalyst for planning, for arranging public education, and for organizing the systematic training of government officers and other personnel from the national down to the union (local council) or community level. The DRR manages the post-disaster provision of relief and rehabilitation. At present, it leads

Among all the other ministries, the Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR) plays a vital role in flood management. It is involved in the planning of water resources, including planning for water-related natural disasters such as cyclone protection, flood proofing, riverbank erosion control and drought management, although the mitigation of disasters remains beyond their mandate. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC), under the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) of the MoWR, plays an important role in providing early warning

In the areas of both cyclone and flood hazards, the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BRCS) and various donor agencies play important roles. The Cyclone Preparedness Program (CPP) was established in 1972 following the devastating cyclone of 1970, under an agreement between the BRCS and the government of Bangladesh, with an aim to undertake effective cyclone preparedness measures in the coastal areas. CPP, under the BRCS, has a joint man‐ agement structure, with two committees, *viz.* a 7-member Policy Committee headed by the Minister of MoFDM, and a 15-member Implementation Board led by the Secretary of the MoFDM. Now the CPP has about 33,120 trained volunteers, including 5,520 women [18].

Besides, the government has a "standing order" for natural disasters (mainly for floods and cyclones), which was last updated in August 1999. The standing orders are followed by all ministries, divisions/departments and government agencies during normal times, precau‐

tionary and warning stages, the disaster stage and the post-disaster stage.

and rehabilitation.

risk reduction at the local community level.

about impending floods to the agencies involved.

The stated significant change in emergency and disaster management approaches de‐ manded institutional restructuring in the governance portfolios. Consequently, the gov‐ ernment of Bangladesh, led by the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, has undertaken various steps in the form of policy, strategy and programs considering the concept of disaster management through mitigation, preparedness, recovery and rehabili‐ tation. The government established the Disaster Management Bureau (DMB) under the Ministry of Disaster Management in 1993 to promote disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness; to provide guidelines; and to organize training and awareness for the con‐ cerned people and stakeholders to mitigate the impacts of disasters. Currently, the DMB has focused on risk reduction through community mobilization, capacity-building and linking risk reduction with the socio-economic development of the poor and vulnerable groups and with developing the DMB's partnership with other government agencies, NGOs and international organizations.

Alongside the development thinkers, international development partners (such as UNDP, DFID, Oxfam GB, USAID, Care International, Caritas) and local NGOs which are concerned with, and are experienced in, disaster management in Bangladesh, the government has promoted the approach of capacity-building and disaster preparedness at all levels. A call for institutional partnerships therefore stemmed from both the government as well as nongovernmental and civil society organizations. A few key policy planners and senior govern‐ ment officials have also favored this new thinking and reflected this through the renaming of the Ministry of Relief and Rehabilitation to the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief. In 1993, the Ministry of Disaster Management then established the Disaster Management Bureau (DMB) and the government set up a national council and various committees at national, district, *upazila* (sub-district) and union (local council) levels, for overall disaster management preparedness [17]. The implications of this institutional restructuring were manifold, and evolved through a sequence of placing increasing emphasis on institutional partnership and community-based disaster management (CBDM).

#### **3.1. Institutional Restructuring to Reflect a Shift in Disaster Management**

In order to manage the consequences of natural disasters, formal public policymaking institutions in Bangladesh have formulated a well-developed mechanism (Figure 1) at national and field levels. The factors that led to such a development can be explained as follows:


In Bangladesh, at the national level, four high-profile bodies were established for the multisectoral coordination of emergencies associated with environmental disasters as well as disaster management in general: the National Disaster Management Council (NDMC), headed by the prime minister; the Inter-Ministerial Disaster Management Coordination Committee (IMDMCC), led by the minister of food and disaster management; the National Disaster Management Advisory Committee (NDMAC), headed by a specialist nominated by the prime minister; and a Parliamentary Standing Committee on Disaster Management to supervise national policies and programs. The common missions of these bodies have been to provide policy and management guidance and the macro-coordination of activities, particularly relief and rehabilitation.

disaster management approaches and measures from structural engineering interventions to

36 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

The stated significant change in emergency and disaster management approaches de‐ manded institutional restructuring in the governance portfolios. Consequently, the gov‐ ernment of Bangladesh, led by the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, has undertaken various steps in the form of policy, strategy and programs considering the concept of disaster management through mitigation, preparedness, recovery and rehabili‐ tation. The government established the Disaster Management Bureau (DMB) under the Ministry of Disaster Management in 1993 to promote disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness; to provide guidelines; and to organize training and awareness for the con‐ cerned people and stakeholders to mitigate the impacts of disasters. Currently, the DMB has focused on risk reduction through community mobilization, capacity-building and linking risk reduction with the socio-economic development of the poor and vulnerable groups and with developing the DMB's partnership with other government agencies,

Alongside the development thinkers, international development partners (such as UNDP, DFID, Oxfam GB, USAID, Care International, Caritas) and local NGOs which are concerned with, and are experienced in, disaster management in Bangladesh, the government has promoted the approach of capacity-building and disaster preparedness at all levels. A call for institutional partnerships therefore stemmed from both the government as well as nongovernmental and civil society organizations. A few key policy planners and senior govern‐ ment officials have also favored this new thinking and reflected this through the renaming of the Ministry of Relief and Rehabilitation to the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief. In 1993, the Ministry of Disaster Management then established the Disaster Management Bureau (DMB) and the government set up a national council and various committees at national, district, *upazila* (sub-district) and union (local council) levels, for overall disaster management preparedness [17]. The implications of this institutional restructuring were manifold, and evolved through a sequence of placing increasing emphasis on institutional

partnership and community-based disaster management (CBDM).

international levels to address the issue;

ities warranted intervention at the policy level.

**3.1. Institutional Restructuring to Reflect a Shift in Disaster Management**

In order to manage the consequences of natural disasters, formal public policymaking institutions in Bangladesh have formulated a well-developed mechanism (Figure 1) at national and field levels. The factors that led to such a development can be explained as follows:

**a.** the severity of the consequent casualties has led to motivations at local, national and

**b.** the recurrent disasters created serious development setbacks: loss in the production and

**c.** in order to attract external investment, the minimization of disaster risks and vulnerabil‐

infrastructure sectors set back the affected regions and the country; and

the social dimensions and community partnerships.

NGOs and international organizations.

Presently, the lead actor in disaster management is the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR) until 2002. It has the role of inter-ministerial planning of disaster management and coordination and of responding in the event of a disaster. Under the MoDMR, there are two line agencies, the Disaster Management Bureau (DMB) and the Directorate of Relief and Rehabilitation (DRR). The DMB is a small professional unit at the national level that performs specialist functions, working with district and *upazila* (sub-district) administrations and line ministries under the overall guidance of the IMDMCC. It is a catalyst for planning, for arranging public education, and for organizing the systematic training of government officers and other personnel from the national down to the union (local council) or community level. The DRR manages the post-disaster provision of relief and rehabilitation. At present, it leads risk reduction at the local community level.

Among all the other ministries, the Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR) plays a vital role in flood management. It is involved in the planning of water resources, including planning for water-related natural disasters such as cyclone protection, flood proofing, riverbank erosion control and drought management, although the mitigation of disasters remains beyond their mandate. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC), under the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) of the MoWR, plays an important role in providing early warning about impending floods to the agencies involved.

In the areas of both cyclone and flood hazards, the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BRCS) and various donor agencies play important roles. The Cyclone Preparedness Program (CPP) was established in 1972 following the devastating cyclone of 1970, under an agreement between the BRCS and the government of Bangladesh, with an aim to undertake effective cyclone preparedness measures in the coastal areas. CPP, under the BRCS, has a joint man‐ agement structure, with two committees, *viz.* a 7-member Policy Committee headed by the Minister of MoFDM, and a 15-member Implementation Board led by the Secretary of the MoFDM. Now the CPP has about 33,120 trained volunteers, including 5,520 women [18].

Besides, the government has a "standing order" for natural disasters (mainly for floods and cyclones), which was last updated in August 1999. The standing orders are followed by all ministries, divisions/departments and government agencies during normal times, precau‐ tionary and warning stages, the disaster stage and the post-disaster stage.

At the field level (Figure 1), disaster management and related mechanisms start with the district administrations covering all 64 districts of Bangladesh. The District Disaster Manage‐ ment Committee (DDMC) is chaired by the deputy commissioner, the chief civil administrator of the district. The members of the committee include departmental officers and NGO, BRCS and CPP and women's representatives. Likewise, below the district level, there are the *upazila*, union and village tiers of the disaster management committees. These local-level committees include representatives from almost all relevant interest groups in society (Figure

Disaster Management Discourse in Bangladesh: A Shift from Post-Event Response to the Preparedness and…

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39

1). An examination of how these committees function appears in succeeding sections.

The Disaster Management Bureau (DMB) has been assigned the role of coordinating the ac‐ tivities of NGOs. The NGOs constitute a vibrant sector in Bangladesh, and have been ac‐ claimed worldwide. NGOs and CBOs are actively involved, among others, in disaster management, micro-credits, family planning, and human rights protection. As a matter of fact, the advent of NGO activities in Bangladesh owes its origin to the rehabilitation works immediately after the devastating war of independence in 1971. Currently, about a quarter of foreign assistance to Bangladesh is channeled through the NGOs. Therefore, their contri‐ butions, particularly to the social service sector and the mobilization of the poor, are quite prominent. This has been acclaimed by the international community. NGOs like the Grameen Bank and Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee (BRAC) have extended their development and disaster management programs at the international level as well. NGOs such as CARE-Bangladesh, OXFAM-Bangladesh, Action Aid, Intermediate Technolo‐ gy Development Group-Bangladesh, Bangladesh Disaster Preparedness Center (BDPC) and Disaster Forum are particularly involved in various pre-, during and post-disaster activities. Pre-disaster activities include advocacy, public education campaigns and training programs for personnel involved in disaster management from the national down to the union or local community level. NGOs also are active in emergency evacuation and in taking people to shelters. The post-disaster activities include offering new micro-credits or rescheduling their

**3.3. Developments in the Institutional Framework: Introduction to the Comprehensive**

Besides the Cyclone Preparedness Program (CPP) and the standing orders, the government of Bangladesh adopted a Corporate Plan (2005-2009) called "Comprehensive Disaster Man‐ agement: A Framework for Action." The US \$15 million Comprehensive Disaster Manage‐ ment Plan (CDMP, Table 1) was funded by DFID and UNDP. It aimed "to reduce the level of community vulnerability to natural and human-induced hazards and risks to manageable and humanitarian levels." This program was supposed to be implemented through a "pro‐ gram-based approach" that encompassed all aspects of risk management. The approach comprehended a transition from a single agency response and relief system to a holistic strategy involving the entire development planning process of the government. CDMP Phase II was launched in 2010 to institutionalize the adoption of risk reduction approaches, and to channel support through government and velopment partners, civil society and NGOs into a people-oriented disaster management and risk reduction partnership. The

**3.2. Increasing roles and responsibilities of NGOs**

loan payment programs for rehabilitation.

**Disaster Management Plan (CDMP)**

project period will be 2010-20114.

Figure 1. Organizational structure and institutional arrangements for disaster management at the national level and field level Besides, the government has a "standing order" for natural disasters (mainly for floods and cyclones), which was last updated in **Figure 1.** Organizational structure and institutional arrangements for disaster management at the national level and field level

August 1999. The standing orders are followed by all ministries, divisions/departments and government agencies during normal times, precautionary and warning stages, the disaster stage and the post-disaster stage. The National Water Management Plan also underlines the importance of implementing effective non-structural measures to reduce the impact of floods and erosion. Thus, as opposed to the structural measures against floods (like dams, river embankments, and flood control and drainage projects) and riverbank erosion control projects (like the building of hard points, canalization and revetment), the recent policies and plans have recognized the importance of participatory planning that focuses on sustaining people's livelihoods. The National Water Management Plan also underlines the importance of implementing effective non-structural measures to reduce the impact of floods and erosion. Thus, as opposed to the structural measures against floods (like dams, river embankments, and flood control and drainage projects) and riverbank erosion control projects (like the building of hard points, canalization and revetment), the recent policies and plans have recognized the importance of participatory planning that focuses on sustaining people's livelihoods.

(Figure 1). An examination of how these committees function appears in succeeding sections.

**3.2. Increasing roles and responsibilities of NGOs** 

At the field level (Figure 1), disaster management and related mechanisms start with the district administrations covering all 64 districts of Bangladesh. The District Disaster Management Committee (DDMC) is chaired by the deputy commissioner, the chief civil administrator of the district. The members of the committee include departmental officers and NGO, BRCS and CPP and women's representatives. Likewise, below the district level, there are the *upazila*, union and village tiers of the disaster management committees. These local-level committees include representatives from almost all relevant interest groups in society

At the field level (Figure 1), disaster management and related mechanisms start with the district administrations covering all 64 districts of Bangladesh. The District Disaster Manage‐ ment Committee (DDMC) is chaired by the deputy commissioner, the chief civil administrator of the district. The members of the committee include departmental officers and NGO, BRCS and CPP and women's representatives. Likewise, below the district level, there are the *upazila*, union and village tiers of the disaster management committees. These local-level committees include representatives from almost all relevant interest groups in society (Figure 1). An examination of how these committees function appears in succeeding sections.

#### **3.2. Increasing roles and responsibilities of NGOs**

Figure 1. Organizational structure and institutional arrangements for disaster management at the national level and field level

Individual households Village-level self-help groups

times, precautionary and warning stages, the disaster stage and the post-disaster stage.

The National Water Management Plan also underlines the importance of implementing effective non-structural measures to reduce the impact of floods and erosion. Thus, as opposed to the structural measures against floods (like dams, river embankments, and flood control and drainage projects) and riverbank erosion control projects (like the building of hard points, canalization and revetment), the recent policies and plans have recognized the importance of

**Figure 1.** Organizational structure and institutional arrangements for disaster management at the national level and

Union Disaster Management Committee

Upazila Disaster Management Committee

**District Disaster Management Committee**

**Disaster Management Bureau (DMB)**

BRCS Disaster Management focal points in line ministries Directorate of Relief and Rehabilitation

Chair: Deputy Commissioner Members: District Officers, Women Rep, BRCS, CPP, NGOs Member-Sec: DRRO

Chair: UNO Members: UP Chairmen, Upazila Officers, Women Rep, TCCA, BRCS, CPP, NGOs Member-Sec: PIO

Chair: UP Chairman Members: Ward Members, Teacher Rep, Government workers, Co-op Reps, BRCS, CPP, NGOs Member-Sec: UP Sec

*National Level*

**Prime Minister's Cabinet**

38 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

National Disaster Management Council

Inter-Ministerial Disaster Management Co-ordination Committee

*Field Level* Divisional Commissioners

CPP

Upazila Nirbahi Officer Project Implementation Officer

DeputyCommissioner District Relief and Rehabilitation Officer

Cabinet Division

National Disaster Management AdvisoryCommittee with technicalsubcommittee

Ministry of Food and Disaster Management

(Figure 1). An examination of how these committees function appears in succeeding sections.

**3.2. Increasing roles and responsibilities of NGOs** 

participatory planning that focuses on sustaining people's livelihoods.

people's livelihoods.

field level

Besides, the government has a "standing order" for natural disasters (mainly for floods and cyclones), which was last updated in August 1999. The standing orders are followed by all ministries, divisions/departments and government agencies during normal

Union-level government workers, teachers

Upazila-level Officers of line agencies

District-level Officers of line agencies

Armed Forces

Other Ministries Planning Commission

NGO Affairs Bureau

NGOs

ERD

Donors

BRCS CRP NGOs Voluntary Organizations

BRCS NGOs Voluntary Organizations Professional Association

Disaster Management focal points in line agencies

Parliamentary Standing Committee on Disaster Management

The National Water Management Plan also underlines the importance of implementing effective non-structural measures to reduce the impact of floods and erosion. Thus, as opposed to the structural measures against floods (like dams, river embankments, and flood control and drainage projects) and riverbank erosion control projects (like the building of hard points, canalization and revetment), the recent policies and plans have recognized the importance of participatory planning that focuses on sustaining

At the field level (Figure 1), disaster management and related mechanisms start with the district administrations covering all 64 districts of Bangladesh. The District Disaster Management Committee (DDMC) is chaired by the deputy commissioner, the chief civil administrator of the district. The members of the committee include departmental officers and NGO, BRCS and CPP and women's representatives. Likewise, below the district level, there are the *upazila*, union and village tiers of the disaster management committees. These local-level committees include representatives from almost all relevant interest groups in society

The Disaster Management Bureau (DMB) has been assigned the role of coordinating the ac‐ tivities of NGOs. The NGOs constitute a vibrant sector in Bangladesh, and have been ac‐ claimed worldwide. NGOs and CBOs are actively involved, among others, in disaster management, micro-credits, family planning, and human rights protection. As a matter of fact, the advent of NGO activities in Bangladesh owes its origin to the rehabilitation works immediately after the devastating war of independence in 1971. Currently, about a quarter of foreign assistance to Bangladesh is channeled through the NGOs. Therefore, their contri‐ butions, particularly to the social service sector and the mobilization of the poor, are quite prominent. This has been acclaimed by the international community. NGOs like the Grameen Bank and Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee (BRAC) have extended their development and disaster management programs at the international level as well.

NGOs such as CARE-Bangladesh, OXFAM-Bangladesh, Action Aid, Intermediate Technolo‐ gy Development Group-Bangladesh, Bangladesh Disaster Preparedness Center (BDPC) and Disaster Forum are particularly involved in various pre-, during and post-disaster activities. Pre-disaster activities include advocacy, public education campaigns and training programs for personnel involved in disaster management from the national down to the union or local community level. NGOs also are active in emergency evacuation and in taking people to shelters. The post-disaster activities include offering new micro-credits or rescheduling their loan payment programs for rehabilitation.

#### **3.3. Developments in the Institutional Framework: Introduction to the Comprehensive Disaster Management Plan (CDMP)**

Besides the Cyclone Preparedness Program (CPP) and the standing orders, the government of Bangladesh adopted a Corporate Plan (2005-2009) called "Comprehensive Disaster Man‐ agement: A Framework for Action." The US \$15 million Comprehensive Disaster Manage‐ ment Plan (CDMP, Table 1) was funded by DFID and UNDP. It aimed "to reduce the level of community vulnerability to natural and human-induced hazards and risks to manageable and humanitarian levels." This program was supposed to be implemented through a "pro‐ gram-based approach" that encompassed all aspects of risk management. The approach comprehended a transition from a single agency response and relief system to a holistic strategy involving the entire development planning process of the government. CDMP Phase II was launched in 2010 to institutionalize the adoption of risk reduction approaches, and to channel support through government and velopment partners, civil society and NGOs into a people-oriented disaster management and risk reduction partnership. The project period will be 2010-20114.

The Corporate Plan (2005-09; 2010-14) acknowledged the need for pre-disaster mitigation and preparedness of the people as opposed to the earlier concepts of responding after a disaster had taken place. Priority was accorded to focus on community-level prepared‐ ness, response, recovery and rehabilitation. Programs to train people living in disasterprone areas were emphasized to improve their capability to cope with natural disasters. The Corporate Plan emphasized a series of broad-based strategies: First, disaster manage‐ ment involved the *management of both risks and consequences* of disasters, which included prevention, emergency response and post-disaster recovery. Second, *community involve‐ ment* was a major focus for preparedness programs to protect lives and properties. The involvement of local government bodies was an essential part of the strategy. Self-reli‐ ance was the key for preparedness, response and recovery. Third, *non-structural mitiga‐ tion measures*, such as community disaster preparedness, training, advocacy and public awareness, were given a high priority; this required the integration of structural mitiga‐

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41

The strategic focus of the CDMP was to lay the foundation for the shift in principle from a post-disaster relief and response strategy towards a comprehensive risk minimization culture that encouraged disaster-resilience initiatives. This approach was to be realized through a

Based on these directives, the major sub-programs of CDMP included: (1) Capacitybuilding, (2) Partnership Development, (3) Community Empowerment, (4) Research and Information Management, and (5) Response Management. Under the sub-program of *Partnership Development*, the government actively sought to achieve a multi-agency ap‐ proach that encompassed the institutions of the government, NGOs and private sector in a collaborative strategy for the alleviation of disaster-induced poverty. This enhanced co‐ ordination and information-sharing among the various actors and thus maximized the ef‐ ficacy of resource use for effective risk reduction. Under the *Community Empowerment* sub-program, the government planned to further consolidate the empowerment process by expanding the program and by realizing community capacity-building through awareness and skill development and by expanding disaster management studies within

Besides these, disaster risk reduction was incorporated as a component into the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) of Bangladesh as Annex-9 of Disaster Vulnerability and Risk Management [14]. The preparation of the PRSP, funded by the World Bank, acknowledged a

**1.** Raising the level of expertise of the disaster management systems,

**4.** Expanding preparedness programs across a broad range of hazards, and

**2.** Mainstreaming disaster risk management programming,

**3.** Strengthening community institutional mechanisms,

**5.** Putting the response systems into operation.

the school system and staff training academies.

holistic approach to disaster management.

tion with non-structural measures.

series of interconnected strategic directives:


**Table 1.** Sub-programs, outputs, target area/group and implementing agencies of CDMP. Adapted from [19].

The Corporate Plan (2005-09; 2010-14) acknowledged the need for pre-disaster mitigation and preparedness of the people as opposed to the earlier concepts of responding after a disaster had taken place. Priority was accorded to focus on community-level prepared‐ ness, response, recovery and rehabilitation. Programs to train people living in disasterprone areas were emphasized to improve their capability to cope with natural disasters. The Corporate Plan emphasized a series of broad-based strategies: First, disaster manage‐ ment involved the *management of both risks and consequences* of disasters, which included prevention, emergency response and post-disaster recovery. Second, *community involve‐ ment* was a major focus for preparedness programs to protect lives and properties. The involvement of local government bodies was an essential part of the strategy. Self-reli‐ ance was the key for preparedness, response and recovery. Third, *non-structural mitiga‐ tion measures*, such as community disaster preparedness, training, advocacy and public awareness, were given a high priority; this required the integration of structural mitiga‐ tion with non-structural measures.

The strategic focus of the CDMP was to lay the foundation for the shift in principle from a post-disaster relief and response strategy towards a comprehensive risk minimization culture that encouraged disaster-resilience initiatives. This approach was to be realized through a series of interconnected strategic directives:


**Strategic Directions**

Raising the level of expertise of the Disaster Management Systems

Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management Programming

Strengthening Community Institutional Mechanisms

Expand Preparedness Programs across a broad range of hazards

Operationalizing Response Systems

Partnership Development

Community Empowerment

Research, Information and Management

Response Management

**Sub-programs Target Area/**

Capacity-building MDMR and

**Group**

Implementing Agency

40 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

National, District and Upazila level officials

Union, Ward and Community levels

Dhaka and selected cities **Key Outputs Responsible**

1. PPDU established and effectively executing its key functions. 2. New MDMR allocation of business and organogram reflecting broader responsibilities in disaster

3. Professional skill enhancement program developed and

5. Phase II program identified

1. High level advocacy program established and implemented 2. Review of the development project appraisal processes and integration of disaster risk

3. Training for national, district and upazila officials implemented

1. Inventory of existing programs developed and gaps identified 2. Community risk management programs based on formal hazard

3. The Local Risk Reduction Fund is supporting community risk

1. Urban search and rescue pilot for Dhaka fire services based on

2. Establishing an integrated approach to climate change risk management at national and local

information management during normal and emergency periods 2. Regional networks strengthened 3. Timely deployment of resources 4. Operational response capacities

risk management

implemented 4. Professional training institutionalized

management

analysis

levels

Whole country 1. Upgrading the capacity in

strengthened

**Table 1.** Sub-programs, outputs, target area/group and implementing agencies of CDMP. Adapted from [19].

reduction efforts

earthquake threat

**Agencies**

MDMR/ UNOPS

MDMR/ DMB/ NGO MDMR/ DMB

UNOPS DRR UNOPS

MDMR/Fire Service MoEF/ DoE

MDMR

Based on these directives, the major sub-programs of CDMP included: (1) Capacitybuilding, (2) Partnership Development, (3) Community Empowerment, (4) Research and Information Management, and (5) Response Management. Under the sub-program of *Partnership Development*, the government actively sought to achieve a multi-agency ap‐ proach that encompassed the institutions of the government, NGOs and private sector in a collaborative strategy for the alleviation of disaster-induced poverty. This enhanced co‐ ordination and information-sharing among the various actors and thus maximized the ef‐ ficacy of resource use for effective risk reduction. Under the *Community Empowerment* sub-program, the government planned to further consolidate the empowerment process by expanding the program and by realizing community capacity-building through awareness and skill development and by expanding disaster management studies within the school system and staff training academies.

Besides these, disaster risk reduction was incorporated as a component into the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) of Bangladesh as Annex-9 of Disaster Vulnerability and Risk Management [14]. The preparation of the PRSP, funded by the World Bank, acknowledged a holistic approach to disaster management.

#### **4. Shift from relief and response to disaster risk management**

In the last few decades, disasters have typically been viewed by the public institutions as numerous individual extreme events, and the responses included top-down-oriented gov‐ ernment policies and efforts by local and international relief agencies that did not take into simultaneous account the social and economic implications and causes of these events. With the significant advancement in the understanding of the natural processes that underlie the hazardous events, a more technocratic paradigm came into existence which conceded that the only way to deal with disasters was by the public policy appli‐ cation of geophysical and engineering knowledge and the associated interventions. These approaches treated disasters as exceptional or "abnormal" events, not related to the on‐ going social and developmental processes. Gradually, with recognition of the fact that these are not "natural events" per se, but directly linked with social structures and their dynamics [20], this structural engineering, technocratic approach shifted to an emphasis on preparedness measures, such as stockpiling of relief goods, preparedness plans and a growing role for relief agencies such as the Red Crescent [21]. This evolution of public policy approach from "relief and response" to "risk management" has begun to influ‐ ence the way disaster management programs are planned and financed. Initiatives have been aimed more and more at reducing social and economic vulnerability and at inves‐ ting in long-term mitigation activities.

security of livelihoods and sustainable development. This underlines the point that the local community is not only the primary actor but also the beneficiary of the risk reduction and

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The implementation of CBDM requires consideration of many essential features. Following

**a.** The local community has a central role in long-term and short-term disaster manage‐ ment and therefore the focus of attention in disaster management must be on the lo‐

**b.** Disaster risk or vulnerability reduction is the foundation of CBDM; the primary content of disaster management activities revolves around reducing vulnerable conditions and the root causes of vulnerability. The primary strategy for vulnerability reduction is by increasing a community's capacities and their resources, and by improving and strength‐

**c.** Disaster management must also establish linkages to the development process as disasters are viewed as unmanaged development risks and unresolved problems of the develop‐ ment process. CBDM should lead to a general improvement of the quality of life of the

**d.** CBDM contributes to people's empowerment – to possess physical safety; to have more access to, and control of, resources; to participate in decision-making which affects their

**e.** As community is a key resource in disaster risk reduction, their role and interests must be recognized. The community is the key actor as well as the primary beneficiary of disaster risk reduction. Within the community, priority attention is given to the conditions of the most vulnerable, as well as to their mobilization in the disaster risk reduction. The community must directly participate in the whole process of disaster risk management --

**f.** A multi-sectoral and multi-disciplinary and trans-disciplinary approach must be applied. CBDM brings together the multitude of community stakeholders for disaster risk reduction, as well as to expand their resource base. The local community-level institutions link up with the intermediate and national levels and even up to the international level to address the complexity of vulnerability issues. A wide range of approaches to disaster

**g.** The CBDM is an involving and dynamic framework, and therefore its implementation must be monitored, evaluated and adapted to incorporate newer elements. Lessons learned from practice continue to build into the theory of CBDM. The sharing of experi‐ ences, methodologies and tools by communities and CBDM practitioners continues to

vast majority of the poor people and of the natural environment.

from situational analysis to planning and to implementation.

lives; to enjoy the benefits of a healthy environment.

Yodmani (2001), [21], the primary ones could be identified as:

development process [21].

cal community.

ening coping strategies.

risk reduction is employed.

enrich practice.

#### **Community-Based Disaster Management (CBDM)**

Recognizing the need for vulnerability reduction for effective disaster management, the failures of a top-down management approach have become evident. This approach has been unsuccessful in addressing the needs of vulnerable communities. A better understanding of disasters and losses also brings to light the fact that the increased occurrence of disasters and disaster-related loss has been due to the exponential increase in the occurrence of small- and medium-scale disasters. As a result, numerous scholars and stakeholders feel that it is important to adopt a new strategy that directly involves vulnerable people in the planning and implementation of mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery measures. This bottomup approach has received wide acceptance because it considers communities as the best judges of their own vulnerability and capable of making the best decisions regarding their well-being. The search for the newer approach led to the formulation of the Community-Based Disaster Management (CBDM) strategy.

The aim of CBDM is to reduce vulnerabilities and to strengthen people's capacity to deal with hazards and cope with disasters. A thorough assessment of a community's exposure to hazards and an analysis of their specific vulnerabilities and capacities is the basis for activities, projects and programs that can reduce disaster risks. Because a community is involved in the whole process, their real and felt needs, as well as their inherent resources, are considered. Therefore, there is a greater likelihood that problems will be addressed with appropriate interventions. People's participation is not only focused on processes but also on the contents. It is anticipated that the local community should be able to gain directly from improved disaster risk manage‐ ment. This in turn will contribute to a progression toward safer conditions and to the improved security of livelihoods and sustainable development. This underlines the point that the local community is not only the primary actor but also the beneficiary of the risk reduction and development process [21].

**4. Shift from relief and response to disaster risk management**

42 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

ting in long-term mitigation activities.

Management (CBDM) strategy.

**Community-Based Disaster Management (CBDM)**

In the last few decades, disasters have typically been viewed by the public institutions as numerous individual extreme events, and the responses included top-down-oriented gov‐ ernment policies and efforts by local and international relief agencies that did not take into simultaneous account the social and economic implications and causes of these events. With the significant advancement in the understanding of the natural processes that underlie the hazardous events, a more technocratic paradigm came into existence which conceded that the only way to deal with disasters was by the public policy appli‐ cation of geophysical and engineering knowledge and the associated interventions. These approaches treated disasters as exceptional or "abnormal" events, not related to the on‐ going social and developmental processes. Gradually, with recognition of the fact that these are not "natural events" per se, but directly linked with social structures and their dynamics [20], this structural engineering, technocratic approach shifted to an emphasis on preparedness measures, such as stockpiling of relief goods, preparedness plans and a growing role for relief agencies such as the Red Crescent [21]. This evolution of public policy approach from "relief and response" to "risk management" has begun to influ‐ ence the way disaster management programs are planned and financed. Initiatives have been aimed more and more at reducing social and economic vulnerability and at inves‐

Recognizing the need for vulnerability reduction for effective disaster management, the failures of a top-down management approach have become evident. This approach has been unsuccessful in addressing the needs of vulnerable communities. A better understanding of disasters and losses also brings to light the fact that the increased occurrence of disasters and disaster-related loss has been due to the exponential increase in the occurrence of small- and medium-scale disasters. As a result, numerous scholars and stakeholders feel that it is important to adopt a new strategy that directly involves vulnerable people in the planning and implementation of mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery measures. This bottomup approach has received wide acceptance because it considers communities as the best judges of their own vulnerability and capable of making the best decisions regarding their well-being. The search for the newer approach led to the formulation of the Community-Based Disaster

The aim of CBDM is to reduce vulnerabilities and to strengthen people's capacity to deal with hazards and cope with disasters. A thorough assessment of a community's exposure to hazards and an analysis of their specific vulnerabilities and capacities is the basis for activities, projects and programs that can reduce disaster risks. Because a community is involved in the whole process, their real and felt needs, as well as their inherent resources, are considered. Therefore, there is a greater likelihood that problems will be addressed with appropriate interventions. People's participation is not only focused on processes but also on the contents. It is anticipated that the local community should be able to gain directly from improved disaster risk manage‐ ment. This in turn will contribute to a progression toward safer conditions and to the improved

The implementation of CBDM requires consideration of many essential features. Following Yodmani (2001), [21], the primary ones could be identified as:


#### **5. Is the present framework based on a partnership approach?**

As is evident from the institutional structure explained above, Bangladesh has developed quite an elaborate framework and disaster preparedness and response mechanism. Moreover, some policy and plan pronouncements in the recent past indicate that the government has begun to adopt an approach to disaster management that includes both risks and consequences. Some progress has been made in enhancing the disaster management capacities during the last decades. After the experiences of the devastating 1988 floods and 1991 cyclone, the concept of *disaster management* was introduced in place of *disaster control*. The ministry was renamed the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR) in 1993 and then again renamed the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management (MoFDM) in 2002. After the formation a new government in 2008, this name of this ministry went back to its previous title as the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR).

nominal government initiative was taken to give shelters to the affected people in this area, and a virtual official ban was put into effect on others, including NGOs and aid agencies, to build houses for the affected people. The pledged Indian support did not come in due time and even 100 days after the event people in this area were forced to live under the sky [26]. Perhaps this unfortunate decision arose from the lack of international/bilateral coordination, bureaucracy on both sides in Bangladesh and India, a lack of understanding of the gravity of not giving shelter to victims in time, or from the unnecessary exercise of power on the

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**5.1. Empirical Investigation of Cyclone Sidr Victims at the Local Level: Vulnerability of the**

It is worth noting that the recent initiatives on community-based disaster risk management became subject to stern criticisms because of their general inadequacy in addressing the vulnerability of the poor to natural hazards and socioeconomic shocks. CBDM programs that aim at prevention and mitigation are few in low- and middle-income countries like Bangladesh and they are poorly funded and insignificant when compared to the financial capital spent by donors and development banks on humanitarian assistance, relief and post-disaster recon‐ struction. Another weakness of such initiatives was that they were often taken up in the formal sector of the economy, and therein bypassed the poor and the most vulnerable sections of society. As Maskrey (p. 86) points out, "in the year or so between the occurrence of a disaster and approved national reconstruction plans, many vulnerable communities revert to coping with risk, often in the same or worse conditions than before the disaster actually struck" [27]. Therefore, in the current paradigm of risk management approaches, there is more room than ever before for addressing the issues of risk reduction for the poor. This is also consonant with the paradigm shift in mainstream development practice, which is now characterized by a focus on good governance, accountability and greater emphasis on bottom-up approaches [21]. In

Bangladesh has experienced several catastrophic environmental disasters during the last two decades; among these events, the April 1991 [28] and November 2007 major cyclones were the most catastrophic in terms of both physical and human dimensions [29]. Cyclone Sidr struck the coast of Bangladesh on 15 November 2007 and was the most powerful mega-cyclone to impact Bangladesh since 1991. However, the death toll (officially, 3,406 lives were lost) caused by Cyclone Sidr was significantly lower than comparable cyclones in previous years due to the improved warning system and evacuation. Nonetheless, the damage to crops and infra‐ structure was considerable across 30 districts, 200 *upazilas* and 1,950 unions. In total, more than 55,000 people were injured by the Cyclone Sidr event. The Joint Damage, Loss, and Needs Assessment (JDNLA) committee estimated that the total damage and losses caused by the

Our investigation along the coastal plains of Bangladesh revealed that the geographical loca‐ tion and patterns of settlement associated with low income populations were the most impor‐ tant determinants of vulnerability to tropical cyclones and related storm surges. Coastal and island people observed that the new, isolated, single-unit settlements were the most severely

light of the above perspective, the case of Cyclone Sidr can be examined.

administration's part, even when in distress.

cyclone were more than US \$1.7 billion [30].

**Poor**

The primary function associated with disaster management is outlined in the government's Rules of Business which are undertaken by the DMB and the DRR. The Rules of Business have been revised to reflect the current MoDMR approach of comprehensive, community-based vulnerability reduction and risk management. The result is that though there has been a declining trend in loss of lives and property, particularly from cyclone disasters, flood damage has tended to rise because of the large spatial extent of floods, their increased frequency and the expanding economy.

Government documents and the NGO literature indicate that there is a wide recognition that effective disaster response at the local level is not possible by government agencies alone and that the cost of management needs to be shared by all stakeholders. Still, the major lacuna in the institutional framework continues to be a lack of functioning partnerships among the stakeholders. The massive flood of July 2004 showed that there were no partnerships func‐ tioning and there was little coordination. The Local Consultative Group (LCG) concluded that massive shortcomings existed in the forecasting, preparedness and coordinated response to the crisis [22]. As a result, the NGOs conducted relief and rehabilitation efforts largely without government directives and coordination. Initially, the government appeared confident to deal with the post-disaster recovery singlehandedly. When things were getting worse, it made a flash appeal on 17 August 2004 through the UNDP, Dhaka, for international assistance. Another report argues about the handling of 1998 floods, indicating that "limited evidence of government coordination was found in the recovery phase" [23]. Save the Children (USA) also proclaimed that "there was a general lack of coordination among actors" [24]. In the wake of the latest cyclone, Sidr in 2007, BBC reported, "Plenty of agencies, but not enough aid - too little, too late," and further quoted a professional working in an affected area, "The reason why these people are not receiving enough help is because there is no coordination between the government and aid agencies" [25].

A striking example of poor management and coordination is the following case. Southkhali village in Shoronkhola *upazila* of Bagerhat district was one the worst hit areas in Sidr. During a visit immediately after the event to the area, the Indian foreign minister pledged his country's intention to build all the houses in this and the surrounding villages. From then onwards, nominal government initiative was taken to give shelters to the affected people in this area, and a virtual official ban was put into effect on others, including NGOs and aid agencies, to build houses for the affected people. The pledged Indian support did not come in due time and even 100 days after the event people in this area were forced to live under the sky [26]. Perhaps this unfortunate decision arose from the lack of international/bilateral coordination, bureaucracy on both sides in Bangladesh and India, a lack of understanding of the gravity of not giving shelter to victims in time, or from the unnecessary exercise of power on the administration's part, even when in distress.

**5. Is the present framework based on a partnership approach?**

44 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR).

the expanding economy.

government and aid agencies" [25].

As is evident from the institutional structure explained above, Bangladesh has developed quite an elaborate framework and disaster preparedness and response mechanism. Moreover, some policy and plan pronouncements in the recent past indicate that the government has begun to adopt an approach to disaster management that includes both risks and consequences. Some progress has been made in enhancing the disaster management capacities during the last decades. After the experiences of the devastating 1988 floods and 1991 cyclone, the concept of *disaster management* was introduced in place of *disaster control*. The ministry was renamed the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR) in 1993 and then again renamed the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management (MoFDM) in 2002. After the formation a new government in 2008, this name of this ministry went back to its previous title as the Ministry

The primary function associated with disaster management is outlined in the government's Rules of Business which are undertaken by the DMB and the DRR. The Rules of Business have been revised to reflect the current MoDMR approach of comprehensive, community-based vulnerability reduction and risk management. The result is that though there has been a declining trend in loss of lives and property, particularly from cyclone disasters, flood damage has tended to rise because of the large spatial extent of floods, their increased frequency and

Government documents and the NGO literature indicate that there is a wide recognition that effective disaster response at the local level is not possible by government agencies alone and that the cost of management needs to be shared by all stakeholders. Still, the major lacuna in the institutional framework continues to be a lack of functioning partnerships among the stakeholders. The massive flood of July 2004 showed that there were no partnerships func‐ tioning and there was little coordination. The Local Consultative Group (LCG) concluded that massive shortcomings existed in the forecasting, preparedness and coordinated response to the crisis [22]. As a result, the NGOs conducted relief and rehabilitation efforts largely without government directives and coordination. Initially, the government appeared confident to deal with the post-disaster recovery singlehandedly. When things were getting worse, it made a flash appeal on 17 August 2004 through the UNDP, Dhaka, for international assistance. Another report argues about the handling of 1998 floods, indicating that "limited evidence of government coordination was found in the recovery phase" [23]. Save the Children (USA) also proclaimed that "there was a general lack of coordination among actors" [24]. In the wake of the latest cyclone, Sidr in 2007, BBC reported, "Plenty of agencies, but not enough aid - too little, too late," and further quoted a professional working in an affected area, "The reason why these people are not receiving enough help is because there is no coordination between the

A striking example of poor management and coordination is the following case. Southkhali village in Shoronkhola *upazila* of Bagerhat district was one the worst hit areas in Sidr. During a visit immediately after the event to the area, the Indian foreign minister pledged his country's intention to build all the houses in this and the surrounding villages. From then onwards,

#### **5.1. Empirical Investigation of Cyclone Sidr Victims at the Local Level: Vulnerability of the Poor**

It is worth noting that the recent initiatives on community-based disaster risk management became subject to stern criticisms because of their general inadequacy in addressing the vulnerability of the poor to natural hazards and socioeconomic shocks. CBDM programs that aim at prevention and mitigation are few in low- and middle-income countries like Bangladesh and they are poorly funded and insignificant when compared to the financial capital spent by donors and development banks on humanitarian assistance, relief and post-disaster recon‐ struction. Another weakness of such initiatives was that they were often taken up in the formal sector of the economy, and therein bypassed the poor and the most vulnerable sections of society. As Maskrey (p. 86) points out, "in the year or so between the occurrence of a disaster and approved national reconstruction plans, many vulnerable communities revert to coping with risk, often in the same or worse conditions than before the disaster actually struck" [27]. Therefore, in the current paradigm of risk management approaches, there is more room than ever before for addressing the issues of risk reduction for the poor. This is also consonant with the paradigm shift in mainstream development practice, which is now characterized by a focus on good governance, accountability and greater emphasis on bottom-up approaches [21]. In light of the above perspective, the case of Cyclone Sidr can be examined.

Bangladesh has experienced several catastrophic environmental disasters during the last two decades; among these events, the April 1991 [28] and November 2007 major cyclones were the most catastrophic in terms of both physical and human dimensions [29]. Cyclone Sidr struck the coast of Bangladesh on 15 November 2007 and was the most powerful mega-cyclone to impact Bangladesh since 1991. However, the death toll (officially, 3,406 lives were lost) caused by Cyclone Sidr was significantly lower than comparable cyclones in previous years due to the improved warning system and evacuation. Nonetheless, the damage to crops and infra‐ structure was considerable across 30 districts, 200 *upazilas* and 1,950 unions. In total, more than 55,000 people were injured by the Cyclone Sidr event. The Joint Damage, Loss, and Needs Assessment (JDNLA) committee estimated that the total damage and losses caused by the cyclone were more than US \$1.7 billion [30].

Our investigation along the coastal plains of Bangladesh revealed that the geographical loca‐ tion and patterns of settlement associated with low income populations were the most impor‐ tant determinants of vulnerability to tropical cyclones and related storm surges. Coastal and island people observed that the new, isolated, single-unit settlements were the most severely impacted by the cyclone and storm surge forces. The settlements near the coast and those which were in linear patterns along the coastal embankment suffered the most. This type of settle‐ ment, which was more susceptible to cyclonic storm surges, was inhabited primarily by the poor of the coastal zones. The fragmentation of families and the building of new settlements al‐ so contributed to high cyclone disaster loss. The soil of the new settlements was less cohesive, and in most cases, the properties had few or only very small trees. The houses of the linear settle‐ ments along the coastal and island embankment were made of straw, bamboo and other locally sourced materials. Apart from high winds and storm surges, these houses were also vulnerable to breaches of the embankment that occur in major cyclonic storms. In our survey, we registered that most of the houses constructed using straw, bamboo, jute stalk, and corrugated iron sheets alongside of the coastal embankment had faced the sea. Such positioning of the housing struc‐ tures also made them more susceptible to severe damage by the cyclones. In contrast, houses lo‐ cated in the interior mainland were usually clustered in groups of six or seven houses called *Baris* in dense tropical forest. Several closely located *Baris* comprise a *Samaj.* This type of settle‐ ment is less susceptible to severe cyclonic wind and storm surges.

**5.2. Cyclone preparedness at the local level**

Series1, No , 58, 69%

**Figure 3.** Training on cyclone preparedness

Cyclone preparedness programs that have been implemented in recent years in the coastal zones of Bangladesh have involved both non-structural and structural measures. Appropriate cyclone preparedness training and enhancement of awareness by campaigns and public education have been major tools for building a well-prepared and cyclone-resilient commun‐ ity. Our field investigation revealed that only 31% of the local community members have received cyclone preparedness training during non-cyclone periods. Such training was chiefly provided by the non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that were locally active (30% of the local community members received training from them); national and local government initiatives in this regard were nominal (only 1% received training from them) (Figure 3).

Disaster Management Discourse in Bangladesh: A Shift from Post-Event Response to the Preparedness and…

**Cyclone preparedness taining received during calm (non-cyclone) period**

Among the structural engineering measures, the construction of cyclone shelters and raised mounds (locally known as *killa*) to provide refuge during the onset of cyclones were the principal ones. The expansion of coastal embankments and reforestation programs to pro‐ tect settlements and properties from cyclone gusts and storm surges along the coast and es‐ tuary channels were among other significant structural measures. The majority (59%) of the community members took refuge in the designated cyclone shelters or in the masonry build‐

Series1, Government , 1, 1%

> Series1, NGO, 25, 30%

Government

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/54973

47

NGO No

Landless families tend to occupy coastal embankments illegally, as there are no public housing or welfare programs in Bangladesh for the landless. The respondents of our survey asserted that because of easy access to both land areas and the sea, they preferred to live on the embankment despite the well-known risks related to both illegal settlement and tropical cyclones (Figure 2).

**Figure 2.** Consideration of villagers living close to the sea

#### **5.2. Cyclone preparedness at the local level**

impacted by the cyclone and storm surge forces. The settlements near the coast and those which were in linear patterns along the coastal embankment suffered the most. This type of settle‐ ment, which was more susceptible to cyclonic storm surges, was inhabited primarily by the poor of the coastal zones. The fragmentation of families and the building of new settlements al‐ so contributed to high cyclone disaster loss. The soil of the new settlements was less cohesive, and in most cases, the properties had few or only very small trees. The houses of the linear settle‐ ments along the coastal and island embankment were made of straw, bamboo and other locally sourced materials. Apart from high winds and storm surges, these houses were also vulnerable to breaches of the embankment that occur in major cyclonic storms. In our survey, we registered that most of the houses constructed using straw, bamboo, jute stalk, and corrugated iron sheets alongside of the coastal embankment had faced the sea. Such positioning of the housing struc‐ tures also made them more susceptible to severe damage by the cyclones. In contrast, houses lo‐ cated in the interior mainland were usually clustered in groups of six or seven houses called *Baris* in dense tropical forest. Several closely located *Baris* comprise a *Samaj.* This type of settle‐

46 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Landless families tend to occupy coastal embankments illegally, as there are no public housing or welfare programs in Bangladesh for the landless. The respondents of our survey asserted that because of easy access to both land areas and the sea, they preferred to live on the embankment despite the well-known risks related to both illegal settlement and tropical

> **Living close to the sea and taking risks are worthwhile considering the economic benefits**

> > Series1, Strongly agree, 45, 54%

Strongly agree Agree Do not know Disagree Strongly disagree

ment is less susceptible to severe cyclonic wind and storm surges.

Series1, Agree, 23, 28%

**Figure 2.** Consideration of villagers living close to the sea

Series1, Disagree, 11, 13%

Series1, Strongly disagree, 1, 1%

cyclones (Figure 2).

Series1, Do not know, 3, 4%

Cyclone preparedness programs that have been implemented in recent years in the coastal zones of Bangladesh have involved both non-structural and structural measures. Appropriate cyclone preparedness training and enhancement of awareness by campaigns and public education have been major tools for building a well-prepared and cyclone-resilient commun‐ ity. Our field investigation revealed that only 31% of the local community members have received cyclone preparedness training during non-cyclone periods. Such training was chiefly provided by the non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that were locally active (30% of the local community members received training from them); national and local government initiatives in this regard were nominal (only 1% received training from them) (Figure 3).

**Figure 3.** Training on cyclone preparedness

Among the structural engineering measures, the construction of cyclone shelters and raised mounds (locally known as *killa*) to provide refuge during the onset of cyclones were the principal ones. The expansion of coastal embankments and reforestation programs to pro‐ tect settlements and properties from cyclone gusts and storm surges along the coast and es‐ tuary channels were among other significant structural measures. The majority (59%) of the community members took refuge in the designated cyclone shelters or in the masonry build‐ ings of neighbors, friends, and relatives during the onset of Cyclone Sidr. About 41% stayed in their homes and opted not to go the cyclone shelters. Such behavior was attributed either to a strong belief that their lives were in the hands of *Allah* (i.e., strong presence of fatalism), a desire to save property from potential looting, the considerable distance of the shelters from their houses, or the unavailability of cyclone shelters in their locality.

Series1, Strongly agree, 3, 4%

**Figure 4.** People's response on cyclone shelters and facilities

**6. Conclusions**

Series1, Strongly disagree, 27, 33%

Over the last four decades, the Water Development Board, in collaboration with other ministries, has constructed about 5,333 km of embankments in the coastal districts to support agriculture and protect the lives and property of coastal residents during cyclones and storm surges. Reducing vulnerability via these structural measures has been quite effective in coastal Bangladesh. There is clear evidence that these embankments along the coastal areas provided an effective buffer during the storm surge associated with Cyclone Sidr. Lives were saved, and damages and property losses were much lower where embankment structures had been properly maintained. Some embankments did not fail even when the storm surge overtopped them. More than 90% of our survey respondents observed that coastal embankments had saved their lives and property from Cyclone Sidr. They also registered that coastal plantations were another major living structural feature that reduced the velocity of the wind and the speed of

tidal surges along with the cyclone and, in turn, saved their lives and properties.

The findings of our study reveal that, officially and legislatively, the government of Bangladesh in recent years has taken a comprehensive and integrated approach to disaster management. Both preparedness and response capacity have increased as a result. However, in the absence of stable and transparent institutions, this strong institutional partnership approach remains largely on paper. Individual stakeholders continue to make significant contributions, but synergy and multiplier effects are still missing. Our analysis shows that no, or only a very limited, culture of partnership in disaster management has yet been established. Divisive partisan politics and the lack of good governance prevent partnerships among stakeholders.

Series1, Agree,

**Are you satisfied with the number and facilities of the cyclone shelters in your locality?**

Disaster Management Discourse in Bangladesh: A Shift from Post-Event Response to the Preparedness and…

Series1, Disagree, 46, 55%

5, 6% Series1, Do not

know , 2, 2%

Strongly agree Agree Do not know Disagree Strongly disagree

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/54973

49

The degree of variation in the number of people who took refuge per cyclone shelter among the localities was significant. Our field research calculated that there were 34 cyclone shelters for 631,138 people (according to the 2001 population census) in the Burguna Sadar *upazila*, under Burguna district, implying that each cyclone shelter would need to provide refuge to 18,563 people. In Kalapara *upazila*, under Patuakhali district, there were 113 cyclone shelters for 202,078 people, implying that each shelter would need to accommodate 1,788 people during the onset of a cyclone. Our exploration into why a considerable population did not use cyclone shelters during Cyclone Sidr provided a number of explanations. All cyclone shelters were being used as civic facilities (such as primary schools or community centers) during the noncyclonic periods but lacked adequate drinking water supply infrastructure and toilets. A total of 87% of the cyclone shelter users identified low sanitation and inadequate drinking water facilities as major constraints to using these shelters. They also opined that low physical capacity (79%) and difficulty in maintaining privacy (47%) were other major problems in using the shelters (Table 2). The poor dispersion of cyclone shelters and the lack of road access were other major concerns about the cyclone shelters. The degree of satisfaction about the cyclone shelters was very low among the local community members (only 6% were satisfied). The examination of the use pattern of cyclone shelters at the local level revealed that although cyclone shelters saved many lives during Cyclone Sidr, many local people opted not to use them or they were simply unavailable in some localities. Clearly, these cyclone preparedness and mitigation measures are testimony of institutional partnerships at various levels of governance and public services.


**Table 2.** Problems in using cyclone shelters. Source: Field survey

#### **Are you satisfied with the number and facilities of the cyclone shelters in your locality?**

**Figure 4.** People's response on cyclone shelters and facilities

Over the last four decades, the Water Development Board, in collaboration with other ministries, has constructed about 5,333 km of embankments in the coastal districts to support agriculture and protect the lives and property of coastal residents during cyclones and storm surges. Reducing vulnerability via these structural measures has been quite effective in coastal Bangladesh. There is clear evidence that these embankments along the coastal areas provided an effective buffer during the storm surge associated with Cyclone Sidr. Lives were saved, and damages and property losses were much lower where embankment structures had been properly maintained. Some embankments did not fail even when the storm surge overtopped them. More than 90% of our survey respondents observed that coastal embankments had saved their lives and property from Cyclone Sidr. They also registered that coastal plantations were another major living structural feature that reduced the velocity of the wind and the speed of tidal surges along with the cyclone and, in turn, saved their lives and properties.

#### **6. Conclusions**

ings of neighbors, friends, and relatives during the onset of Cyclone Sidr. About 41% stayed in their homes and opted not to go the cyclone shelters. Such behavior was attributed either to a strong belief that their lives were in the hands of *Allah* (i.e., strong presence of fatalism), a desire to save property from potential looting, the considerable distance of the shelters

The degree of variation in the number of people who took refuge per cyclone shelter among the localities was significant. Our field research calculated that there were 34 cyclone shelters for 631,138 people (according to the 2001 population census) in the Burguna Sadar *upazila*, under Burguna district, implying that each cyclone shelter would need to provide refuge to 18,563 people. In Kalapara *upazila*, under Patuakhali district, there were 113 cyclone shelters for 202,078 people, implying that each shelter would need to accommodate 1,788 people during the onset of a cyclone. Our exploration into why a considerable population did not use cyclone shelters during Cyclone Sidr provided a number of explanations. All cyclone shelters were being used as civic facilities (such as primary schools or community centers) during the noncyclonic periods but lacked adequate drinking water supply infrastructure and toilets. A total of 87% of the cyclone shelter users identified low sanitation and inadequate drinking water facilities as major constraints to using these shelters. They also opined that low physical capacity (79%) and difficulty in maintaining privacy (47%) were other major problems in using the shelters (Table 2). The poor dispersion of cyclone shelters and the lack of road access were other major concerns about the cyclone shelters. The degree of satisfaction about the cyclone shelters was very low among the local community members (only 6% were satisfied). The examination of the use pattern of cyclone shelters at the local level revealed that although cyclone shelters saved many lives during Cyclone Sidr, many local people opted not to use them or they were simply unavailable in some localities. Clearly, these cyclone preparedness and mitigation measures are testimony of institutional partnerships at various levels of

**Factors Respondents (%) (n= 162)**

Inadequate sanitation and drinking water facilities 87 Inadequate physical capacity 79 Hard to maintain privacy 47 Fragile structure 43 Unhygienic conditions 24 Absence of access road 14 Situated in a distant place 12 Do not know 5

from their houses, or the unavailability of cyclone shelters in their locality.

48 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

governance and public services.

**Table 2.** Problems in using cyclone shelters. Source: Field survey

The findings of our study reveal that, officially and legislatively, the government of Bangladesh in recent years has taken a comprehensive and integrated approach to disaster management. Both preparedness and response capacity have increased as a result. However, in the absence of stable and transparent institutions, this strong institutional partnership approach remains largely on paper. Individual stakeholders continue to make significant contributions, but synergy and multiplier effects are still missing. Our analysis shows that no, or only a very limited, culture of partnership in disaster management has yet been established. Divisive partisan politics and the lack of good governance prevent partnerships among stakeholders. Therefore, in the following section we propose a partnership framework that outlines new roles and responsibilities for major players. Implementation of the framework could lead to partnership in disaster management in Bangladesh. Government agencies, NGOs and policymakers need to understand the perspectives of local communities, the impacts of floods, and the levels of vulnerability to improve information, knowledge, resource support and services. For this, there is a need for more "action research" involving communities and scientists from different disciplines and greater awareness about the integration of floods, cyclones and other natural disasters and climatic events into the development process among key actors, particularly, government agencies.

**3.** Strengthening the capacity of the MoFDM and other disaster management-related agencies and committees at all levels, with particular emphasis on the district-level disaster management committees (DDMC). Each of the DDMC in the risk-prone areas can be equipped with a Geographic Information System (GIS) Cell as a planning tool for

From a partnership point of view, the following measures need to be initiated by the MoFDM:

Disaster Management Discourse in Bangladesh: A Shift from Post-Event Response to the Preparedness and…

crisis periods, is expected to result in the shift of focus from post-disaster to pre-disaster risk management. However, the MoFDM must ensure the transparency of its own and all other agencies involved in developing the partnership for disaster management. Public disclosure and documentation should be mandatory for all the stakeholders and must be published by this pivotal agency on a regular basis. The ultimate goal of the partnership is to enhance the investment and social capital for community

1. Adoption of a comprehensive national disaster management policy, with clear guidelines for an effective partnership of

2. Coordination of the functions of disaster management and climate change communities; this is likely to help integrate prevention with preparedness, response and recovery efforts, in both short-term and long-term perspectives; CDMP appears to be

3. Strengthening the capacity of the MoFDM and other disaster management-related agencies and committees at all levels, with particular emphasis on the district-level disaster management committees (DDMC). Each of the DDMC in the risk-prone areas can be equipped with a Geographic Information System (GIS) Cell as a planning tool for managing development and disaster

4. Large-scale training of staff at all levels, including the stakeholders, particularly from the media, NGOs and private sector, in team and motivational works and in how to prevent disasters; for the purpose, a Disaster Management Training Cell can be

5. Activating the Disaster Management Committees (DMC) at all levels, including the national ones, through organizing

Regional Countries

1. Strengthening the project monitoring and evaluation capacities at all levels, with the involvement of local stakeholders; the establishment of broad-based and inclusive monitoring and evaluation committees for projects will ensure transparency,

Media

Donors

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/54973

51

2. Decentralization of not only responsibilities, but also decision-making power, to DDMCs, led by the local governments with

3. Establishment of small teams at all levels of DMCs to better coordinate and integrate disaster management planning and

4. Finally, developing a network among the GOs, NGOs, researchers, academics, journalists and other professionals in order to enlist their potential roles and contributions in mitigating disaster-related problems. The MoFDM can act as the coordinating

**4.** Large-scale training of staff at all levels, including the stakeholders, particularly from the media, NGOs and private sector, in team and motivational works and in how to prevent disasters; for the purpose, a Disaster Management Training Cell can be established at the

**5.** Activating the Disaster Management Committees (DMC) at all levels, including the

National Parliament & Parliamentary Standing Committee on MFDM

**MFDM, DMB and DRR** 

Sector Academia

Private

**1.** Strengthening the project monitoring and evaluation capacities at all levels, with the involvement of local stakeholders; the establishment of broad-based and inclusive monitoring and evaluation committees for projects will ensure transparency, accounta‐

**2.** Decentralization of not only responsibilities, but also decision-making power, to DDMCs, led by the local governments with sufficient financial resources and autonomy.

**3.** Establishment of small teams at all levels of DMCs to better coordinate and integrate disaster management planning and activities from the national to local levels.

**4.** Finally, developing a network among the GOs, NGOs, researchers, academics, journalists and other professionals in order to enlist their potential roles and contributions in mitigating disaster-related problems. The MoDMR can act as the coordinating agency for

managing development and disaster reduction activities.

empowerment against disaster risks.

beginning in the right direction.

all stakeholders.

reduction activities.

established at the DMB.

meetings at regular intervals.

Other Ministries/ Agencies and Local Government bodies

> NGOs/ CBOs

national ones, through organizing meetings at regular intervals.

Figure 5. Proposed partnership framework for disaster management in Bangladesh

accountability and therefore the delivery of intended results.

sufficient financial resources and autonomy.

bility and therefore the delivery of intended results.

**Figure 5.** Proposed partnership framework for disaster management in Bangladesh

activities from the national to local levels.

agency for building up this network.

**Acknowledgments** 

building up this network.

DMB.

Disaster management is a nationwide affair, involving each and every organization and citizen of the country. The government of any country cannot do it alone because of the resource constraints as well as the wide scope of the tasks involved. Therefore, a broad-based partner‐ ship involving all the stakeholders is a desirable and realistic approach to realizing the full potential at all stages of disaster management, namely, prevention, preparedness, response and recovery [31]. Experience that demonstrates the value of partnership in managing disasters is grounded in the mutual recognition of many different ideas and interests. The constituencies or interests associated with this partnership include the stakeholders, such as government ministries/agencies, National Parliament and the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Disaster Management, NGOs/CBOs, the private sector, the media, academia, donors and regional countries (Figure 5). The approach, involving multi-modal communication and interaction, proposes to integrate the activities of different stakeholders into a functional partnership framework. This outline describes how each stakeholder can be a loop in an integrated chain.

#### **Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR)**

This organization, directly supported by DMB and DRR, remains the pivot and is destined to channel and coordinate all communications and activities between and among all the partners in the loop. This coordinated process, particularly during non-crisis periods, is expected to result in the shift of focus from post-disaster to pre-disaster risk management. However, the MoDMR must ensure the transparency of its own and all other agencies involved in developing the partnership for disaster management. Public disclosure and documentation should be mandatory for all the stakeholders and must be published by this pivotal agency on a regular basis. The ultimate goal of the partnership is to enhance the investment and social capital for community empowerment against disaster risks.

From a partnership point of view, the following measures need to be initiated by the MoDMR:


crisis periods, is expected to result in the shift of focus from post-disaster to pre-disaster risk management. However, the MoFDM must ensure the transparency of its own and all other agencies involved in developing the partnership for disaster management. Public disclosure and documentation should be mandatory for all the stakeholders and must be published by this pivotal agency on a regular basis. The ultimate goal of the partnership is to enhance the investment and social capital for community

**3.** Strengthening the capacity of the MoFDM and other disaster management-related agencies and committees at all levels, with particular emphasis on the district-level disaster management committees (DDMC). Each of the DDMC in the risk-prone areas can be equipped with a Geographic Information System (GIS) Cell as a planning tool for managing development and disaster reduction activities. 1. Adoption of a comprehensive national disaster management policy, with clear guidelines for an effective partnership of all stakeholders. 2. Coordination of the functions of disaster management and climate change communities; this is likely to help integrate prevention with preparedness, response and recovery efforts, in both short-term and long-term perspectives; CDMP appears to be beginning in the right direction.

Therefore, in the following section we propose a partnership framework that outlines new roles and responsibilities for major players. Implementation of the framework could lead to partnership in disaster management in Bangladesh. Government agencies, NGOs and policymakers need to understand the perspectives of local communities, the impacts of floods, and the levels of vulnerability to improve information, knowledge, resource support and services. For this, there is a need for more "action research" involving communities and scientists from different disciplines and greater awareness about the integration of floods, cyclones and other natural disasters and climatic events into the development process among

50 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Disaster management is a nationwide affair, involving each and every organization and citizen of the country. The government of any country cannot do it alone because of the resource constraints as well as the wide scope of the tasks involved. Therefore, a broad-based partner‐ ship involving all the stakeholders is a desirable and realistic approach to realizing the full potential at all stages of disaster management, namely, prevention, preparedness, response and recovery [31]. Experience that demonstrates the value of partnership in managing disasters is grounded in the mutual recognition of many different ideas and interests. The constituencies or interests associated with this partnership include the stakeholders, such as government ministries/agencies, National Parliament and the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Disaster Management, NGOs/CBOs, the private sector, the media, academia, donors and regional countries (Figure 5). The approach, involving multi-modal communication and interaction, proposes to integrate the activities of different stakeholders into a functional partnership framework. This outline describes how each stakeholder can be a loop in an

This organization, directly supported by DMB and DRR, remains the pivot and is destined to channel and coordinate all communications and activities between and among all the partners in the loop. This coordinated process, particularly during non-crisis periods, is expected to result in the shift of focus from post-disaster to pre-disaster risk management. However, the MoDMR must ensure the transparency of its own and all other agencies involved in developing the partnership for disaster management. Public disclosure and documentation should be mandatory for all the stakeholders and must be published by this pivotal agency on a regular basis. The ultimate goal of the partnership is to enhance the investment and social capital for

From a partnership point of view, the following measures need to be initiated by the MoDMR: **1.** Adoption of a comprehensive national disaster management policy, with clear guidelines

**2.** Coordination of the functions of disaster management and climate change communities; this is likely to help integrate prevention with preparedness, response and recovery efforts, in both short-term and long-term perspectives; CDMP appears to be beginning in

key actors, particularly, government agencies.

**Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR)**

community empowerment against disaster risks.

the right direction.

for an effective partnership of all stakeholders.

integrated chain.


Figure 5. Proposed partnership framework for disaster management in Bangladesh **Figure 5.** Proposed partnership framework for disaster management in Bangladesh

meetings at regular intervals.


#### **Acknowledgements**

This research was funded by the Building Environmental Governance Capacity in Bangladesh (BEGCB) project under the financial support of Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) and a grant from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC), Ottawa, Canada. The authors are thankful to the community members of Patuakhali and Barguna districts in Bangladesh for their participation and support to this research.

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cies/southasia\_floods\_07/update\_070806.

ber. Dhaka: Ministry of Finance and Planning; (2004).

Disaster Management Bureau; (1997).

agement Bureau; (1998).

ment of Bangladesh; (2005).

(2004).

about\_isdr/bd-lwr-eng.htm., 2004.

#### **Author details**


Natural Resources Institute, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada

#### **References**


[9] FFWC (Flood Forecasting and Warning Center)An Overview of Flood Forecasting and Warning Services in Bangladesh. A paper presented on 2nd April. Dhaka: Ban‐ gladesh Water Development Board; (2005).

**Acknowledgements**

**Author details**

**References**

C. Emdad Haque and M. Salim Uddin\*

\*Address all correspondence to: umuddin4@cc.umanitoba.ca

of Environment and Forest; (2005).

Change (2010). , 98, 291-298.

(2003). , 29, 465-483.

Natural Resources Institute, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada

This research was funded by the Building Environmental Governance Capacity in Bangladesh (BEGCB) project under the financial support of Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) and a grant from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC), Ottawa, Canada. The authors are thankful to the community members of Patuakhali and

[1] Agrawala, S, Ota, T, Ahmed, A. U, Smith, J, & Aalst, M. V. Development and Climate Change in Bangladesh: Focus on Coastal Flooding and the Sundarbans. Paris: Organ‐

[2] Government of BangladeshNational Adaptation Program of Action. Dhaka: Ministry

[3] Loucks, C, & Barber-meyer, S. Hossain MAA, Barlow A, Chowdhury RM. Sea Level Rise and Tigers: Predicted Impacts to Bangladesh's Sundarbans Mangroves. Climatic

[4] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)Climate Change 2001: The Scien‐ tific Basis. Contribution of Working Group-I to the IPCC Third Assessment Report,

[5] Asian Development Bank (ADB) and World BankBangladesh 2004 Post-Flood Recov‐

[7] Haque, C. E. Perspectives of Natural Disasters in East and South Asia, and the Pacific Island States: Socio-economic Correlates and Needs Assessment. Natural Hazards

[8] CRED (Centre for Research on Epidemiology and Disasters)An International Disaster Database. Brussels: Université Catholique de Louvain; (2004). http://www.emdat.be.

[6] Chowdhury, J. R, & Rahman, R. Bangladesh Environment Outlook. Dhaka; (2001).

ization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD); (2003).

edited by Houghton et al. Cambridge University Press; (2001).

ery Programme: Damage and Needs Assessment. Dhaka; (2004).

Barguna districts in Bangladesh for their participation and support to this research.

52 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters


[23] Beck, T. Learning Lessons from Disaster Recovery: The Case of Bangladesh. Disaster Management Working paper Series Washington, DC: World Bank; (2005). (11)

**Chapter 3**

**Hazard Mitigation Planning in the United States:**

Andrea M. Jackman and Mario G. Beruvides

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

**2. Hazard mitigation before and during the cold war**

**Challenges**

**1. Introduction**

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/54209

**Historical Perspectives, Cultural Influences, and Current**

Planning for disasters at the federal, state, and local level is a relatively recent area of focus within the practice of emergency management in the United States. Historically, emergency management as a practice was focused on response to a disaster, with little attention paid to preparation, recovery, or overall and ongoing activities to reduce the effects of disasters. The theoretical framework and literature demonstrates the importance of planning as an activity which impacts the success of many other emergency management activities, yet practice has shown that planning is not always a valued or highly prioritized practice at the local level. The Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 marked the first legislative emphasis on planning and mitigation and recent studies by the authors have shown mixed results for the implementa‐ tion of planning laws. This chapter reviews in detail the historical developments in the theo‐ ry and practice of planning with special emphasis on hazard mitigation planning; provides a theoretical framework based on the literature for understanding the importance of local lev‐ el planning within the national system of emergency management, and the complexity that arises within that system; and discusses ongoing challenges in the successful completion of planning activities in the 21st century due to ongoing administrative and cultural challenges.

Understanding hazard mitigation in the United States first requires an understanding of how emergency management activities evolved historically. E. L. Quarantelli, one of the leaders in disaster sociology, described the beginnings of disaster research as "almost exclu‐

> © 2013 Jackman and Beruvides; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

© 2013 Jackman and Beruvides; licensee InTech. This is a paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,

distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


## **Hazard Mitigation Planning in the United States: Historical Perspectives, Cultural Influences, and Current Challenges**

Andrea M. Jackman and Mario G. Beruvides

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/54209

#### **1. Introduction**

[23] Beck, T. Learning Lessons from Disaster Recovery: The Case of Bangladesh. Disaster Management Working paper Series Washington, DC: World Bank; (2005). (11)

54 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

[24] Haque, C. E, Khan, M. R, Uddin, M. S, & Chowdhury, S. R. Disaster Management and Public Policies in Bangladesh: Institutional Partnerships in Cyclone Hazards Mitigation and Response. In: Haque CE, Etkin D. (eds.) Disaster Risk and Vulnerabil‐ ity: Mitigation through Mobilizing Communities and Partnerships. Montreal and

[25] BBCPlenty of agencies, but not enough aid. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south\_asia/

[26] BBCOne hundred days after SIDR-very little progress in rehabilitation and housing (an audio report in Bangla). http://www.bbc.co.uk/bengali/indepth/story/

[27] Maskrey, A. Reducing Global Disasters. In: Ingleton J. (ed.) Natural Disaster Man‐

[28] Haque, C. E. Atmospheric Hazards Preparedness in Bangladesh: A Study of Warn‐ ing, Adjustments and Recovery from the April 1991 Cyclone. Natural Hazards

[29] Paul, B. K. Why Relatively Fewer People Died? The Case of Bangladesh's Cyclone

[30] GoB (Government of Bangladesh)Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh: Damage, Loss and Needs Assessment for Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction. Dhaka: Government of

[31] Quarantelli, E. L. Assessment of Development Potential and Capacity Based on Vul‐ nerability. In: Integrated Approach to Disaster Management and Regional Develop‐ ment Planning with Peoples' Participation. UN Center for Regional Development;

Kingston, Canada: McGill and Queen's University Press; (2012). , 154-182.

2008/02/080222\_mbsidr\_100days.shtml,February; (2008).

agement. Leicester, UK: Tudor Rose; (1999).

Sidr. Natural Hazards (2009). , 50, 289-304.

stm, 19 November; (2007).

(1997). , 16, 181-202.

Bangladesh; (2008).

(1990).

Planning for disasters at the federal, state, and local level is a relatively recent area of focus within the practice of emergency management in the United States. Historically, emergency management as a practice was focused on response to a disaster, with little attention paid to preparation, recovery, or overall and ongoing activities to reduce the effects of disasters. The theoretical framework and literature demonstrates the importance of planning as an activity which impacts the success of many other emergency management activities, yet practice has shown that planning is not always a valued or highly prioritized practice at the local level. The Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 marked the first legislative emphasis on planning and mitigation and recent studies by the authors have shown mixed results for the implementa‐ tion of planning laws. This chapter reviews in detail the historical developments in the theo‐ ry and practice of planning with special emphasis on hazard mitigation planning; provides a theoretical framework based on the literature for understanding the importance of local lev‐ el planning within the national system of emergency management, and the complexity that arises within that system; and discusses ongoing challenges in the successful completion of planning activities in the 21st century due to ongoing administrative and cultural challenges.

### **2. Hazard mitigation before and during the cold war**

Understanding hazard mitigation in the United States first requires an understanding of how emergency management activities evolved historically. E. L. Quarantelli, one of the leaders in disaster sociology, described the beginnings of disaster research as "almost exclu‐

© 2013 Jackman and Beruvides; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2013 Jackman and Beruvides; licensee InTech. This is a paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

sively supported by the U.S.A. military organizations with very practical concerns about wartime situations" [1]. He notes that these "organized research activities [occurred] from about 1950 to 1965" and their primary goals were civil organization in wartime situations, under the assumption that "morale is the key to disaster control," and "effective disaster control includes the securing of conformity to emergency regulations" and "the reduction and control of panic reactions" [1]. The federal government took further action during the 1950s by undergoing several reorganizations within the Department of Defense (see [2]). Pri‐ or to, and during that time, the federal government was mainly concerned with civil de‐ fense, so that "private, voluntary agencies such as the American National Red Cross, the Salvation Army, and many others bore the primary responsibility for disaster relief; and state and local governments coped as best they could" [2]. Federal assistance was available as an absolute last resort by way of "special assistance acts passed by Congress" [2]. Howev‐ er this system had been operating essentially without change since 1803, and due to its reac‐ tive nature, there were "frequent delays before federal assistance reached impacted areas, and the nature of the assistance was designated only for selected purposes" [2].

levels of government. The NGA Report included only suggested actions for each phase,

Hazard Mitigation Planning in the United States: Historical Perspectives, Cultural Influences, and Current Challenges

**1.** Mitigation- assessing the risk posed by a hazard or potential disaster and attempting to

**2.** Preparedness- developing a response plan based upon the risk assessment, training re‐ sponse personnel, arranging for necessary resources, making arrangements with other jurisdictions for sharing of resources, clarifying jurisdictional responsibilities, and so on;

**3.** Response- implementing the plan, reducing the potential for secondary damage, and

**4.** Recovery- reestablishing life support systems, such as repairing electrical power net‐ works, and providing temporary housing, food, and clothing. Recovery is assumed to

In the years following the development of the NGA model, a number of scientific studies (summarized in Table 1) sought to define each phase in more detail. These definitions are

**Author Preparedness Response Recovery Mitigation**

Providing immediate support during the early recovery period necessary to return vital life sup‐ port systems to minimum opera‐ tion levels, and continuing to provide support until the com‐ munity returns to normal.

Reestablishing life support sys‐ tems, such as repairing electrical power networks, and providing temporary housing, food, and

clothing

Deciding what to do where a risk to the health, safety, and welfare of society has been determined to exist; and implementing a risk re‐

Assessing the risk posed by a hazard or potential disas‐ ter and attempting to re‐

ductive program

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/54209

57

duce the risk

Providing emergency aid and assistance, reducing the probability of secondary damage, and minimizing problems for recovery oper‐

Implementing the plan, re‐ ducing the potential for sec‐ ondary damage, and preparing for the recovery

ations.

phase

which were not operationally defined until 1985:

preparing for the recovery phase; and

stop short of reconstruction. [3]

Developing a response plan and training first res‐ ponders to save lives and reduce disaster damage, including the identifica‐ tion of critical resources and the development of necessary agreements be‐ tween responding agen‐

reduce the risk;

still widely used today.

cies

Petak, 1985 [3] [D]eveloping a response

and so on.

plan based upon the risk assessment, training re‐ sponse personnel, arrang‐ ing for necessary resources, making ar‐ rangements with other jurisdictions for sharing of resources, clarifying juris‐ dictional responsibilities,

NGA Report, 1979

[4]

Two interesting notes about the observations in [1] and [2]: first, the basis of government ac‐ tivity in emergency management emerged from a military and national defense perspective. The first "emergencies" in this regard were wars, or attacks from outside invaders. This mil‐ itaristic approach – managing a disaster as enemy attack – would shape emergency manage‐ ment significantly in later years. Second, governmental activities in early years were largely reactive. Planning, particularly with an emphasis on mitigation, is not mentioned. A reactive war approach may seem antiquated outside of the Cold War context, but it is essential to understanding the development and decisions of current sentiments toward planning with‐ in local governments. As will be discussed in later sections, the defense mentality is still the dominant approach to loss prevention at the local level, and helps explain actions at all lev‐ els of government, in all modern aspects of emergency management.

#### **3. The four phases of emergency management**

In 1979, a report by the National Governor's Association was published on the topic of emergency management, and defined the general practice as:

A state's responsibility and capability for managing all types of emergencies and disasters by coordinating the actions of numerous agencies. The comprehensive aspect of [emergency management] includes all four phases of disaster or emergency activity: mitigation, prepar‐ edness, response, and recovery. It applies to all risks: attack, man-made, and natural, in a federal-state-local partnership (see Table 1).

The four phases listed- mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery- serve as the cur‐ rent model of emergency management, are widely used among practitioners, and are con‐ sidered the starting point for all policy and program design for all types of hazards at all levels of government. The NGA Report included only suggested actions for each phase, which were not operationally defined until 1985:

sively supported by the U.S.A. military organizations with very practical concerns about wartime situations" [1]. He notes that these "organized research activities [occurred] from about 1950 to 1965" and their primary goals were civil organization in wartime situations, under the assumption that "morale is the key to disaster control," and "effective disaster control includes the securing of conformity to emergency regulations" and "the reduction and control of panic reactions" [1]. The federal government took further action during the 1950s by undergoing several reorganizations within the Department of Defense (see [2]). Pri‐ or to, and during that time, the federal government was mainly concerned with civil de‐ fense, so that "private, voluntary agencies such as the American National Red Cross, the Salvation Army, and many others bore the primary responsibility for disaster relief; and state and local governments coped as best they could" [2]. Federal assistance was available as an absolute last resort by way of "special assistance acts passed by Congress" [2]. Howev‐ er this system had been operating essentially without change since 1803, and due to its reac‐ tive nature, there were "frequent delays before federal assistance reached impacted areas,

56 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

and the nature of the assistance was designated only for selected purposes" [2].

els of government, in all modern aspects of emergency management.

**3. The four phases of emergency management**

emergency management, and defined the general practice as:

federal-state-local partnership (see Table 1).

Two interesting notes about the observations in [1] and [2]: first, the basis of government ac‐ tivity in emergency management emerged from a military and national defense perspective. The first "emergencies" in this regard were wars, or attacks from outside invaders. This mil‐ itaristic approach – managing a disaster as enemy attack – would shape emergency manage‐ ment significantly in later years. Second, governmental activities in early years were largely reactive. Planning, particularly with an emphasis on mitigation, is not mentioned. A reactive war approach may seem antiquated outside of the Cold War context, but it is essential to understanding the development and decisions of current sentiments toward planning with‐ in local governments. As will be discussed in later sections, the defense mentality is still the dominant approach to loss prevention at the local level, and helps explain actions at all lev‐

In 1979, a report by the National Governor's Association was published on the topic of

A state's responsibility and capability for managing all types of emergencies and disasters by coordinating the actions of numerous agencies. The comprehensive aspect of [emergency management] includes all four phases of disaster or emergency activity: mitigation, prepar‐ edness, response, and recovery. It applies to all risks: attack, man-made, and natural, in a

The four phases listed- mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery- serve as the cur‐ rent model of emergency management, are widely used among practitioners, and are con‐ sidered the starting point for all policy and program design for all types of hazards at all


In the years following the development of the NGA model, a number of scientific studies (summarized in Table 1) sought to define each phase in more detail. These definitions are still widely used today.


**Author Preparedness Response Recovery Mitigation**

Hazard Mitigation Planning in the United States: Historical Perspectives, Cultural Influences, and Current Challenges

\*Damage Assessment (DA) \*Clean-up (De-con)

\*Providing temporary basic

\*Basic reconstruction (Recon I)

facilities (Restor)

needs (TBN)

\*Restoration of critical systems &

\*Improved reconstruction

59

\*Legislative planning (LP) \*Regularly scheduled vul‐ nerability & risk assess‐ ments (VRA)

(Recon II)

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/54209

\*Activation of Emergency

\*Medical assistance and first

\*Shelter & Evacuation (S&E) \*Search & Rescue (S&R) \*Secondary Damage Reduc‐

The four phases are widely considered to be overlapping and cyclical (Figure 1). Mitigation activities occur in all phases of a disaster, and frequently are most evident during recon‐ struction, which has since been informally added by practitioners as a part of the long-term recovery phase. The ongoing, ubiquitous nature of mitigation activities makes this the hard‐ est phase to clearly define with a beginning and end point. As reconstruction and recovery near completion, lessons learned from these phases are incorporated into preparedness ac‐ tivities with additional mitigation in mind, which in turn are set aside when a response be‐ comes necessary. Hazard Mitigation Plans are easiest to study within the context of the Planning phase, instead of Mitigation. According to the federal policy described later, miti‐ gation, recovery and even some response activities are directed by state and local Hazard Mitigation Plans. Although risk assessment, defined here to be part of the mitigation, is a critical step in authoring a HMP, the entire process will be grouped into the Preparedness phase for simplicity. This is also due to the complex nature of risk assessment as a separate activity, and a tolerance for imprecision in the HMP approval process. Within the context of the Four Phase model, Preparedness, and specifically plan creation, at each level of govern‐

The role of local-level emergency planning within the national emergency management framework is one of great importance. Federal government provides direction and goals for local planners, but primarily serves as a financial supporter when governments are unable to meet these goals. Likewise, the state acts as a regional conduit between federal and local government, providing aid to its local jurisdictions as needed. This concept, known as shared governance, is a reflection of American attitudes about self-governance. In their book exploring policy implementation issues within the federal government, May and Williams [8] cited, as an example of this mindset, the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965, which marked the first time in U.S. history that the federal government assumed a di‐ rect funding role in public education. Although American government was deliberately de‐

Protocol (AEP)

aid (EMS)

tion (SDR)

**3.1. Planning for disaster in federal, state, and local government**

Summary \*Threat assessment (TA)

**Table 1.** Four Phase Model Definitions

ment is described in the next section.

signed in this fashion, it can cause a dilemma:

\*Resource assessment & acquisition (RA&A) \*Inter and intra-jurisdic‐ tional cooperation \*Drills & Exercises (D&E) \*Writing a plan (Plan)



**Table 1.** Four Phase Model Definitions

**Author Preparedness Response Recovery Mitigation**

Assess damage and formulate short-term and long-term goals for rebuilding, including costs, needed equipment, and aid op‐ portunities; ask for public input and improve rebuilt structures where possible; create schedule. All levels except city should iden‐ tify and implement opportunities for inter-jurisdictional aid.

Short-term activities that restore vital life support systems to mini‐ mum operating standards and long-term activities that return life to normal; e.g., debris clear‐ ance, contamination control, dis‐ aster unemployment assistance, temporary housing, and facility

The development, coordination, and execution of service- and site-restoration plans; the recon‐ stitution of government opera‐ tions and services; individual, private-sector, nongovernmen‐ tal, and public-assistance [hous‐ ing and restoration] programs; long-term care and treatment of affected persons; [social, politi‐ cal, environmental, and econom‐ ic restoration]; [identification of] lessons learned; postincident re‐ porting; and development of [mitigation]initiatives

restoration.

Conduct annual risk & vul‐ nerability assessment with public involvement. Identi‐ fy and formulate mitigation goals, and assign to appro‐ priate agencies. County, state, and federal offices should monitor incoming reports and progress, allo‐ cate necessary resources, identify opportunities for inter-jurisdictional cooper‐ ation, and report to the next highest level.

Activities that reduce the degree of long-term risk to human life and property from natural and manmade hazards, e.g., build‐ ing codes, disaster insurance, land-use man‐ agement, risk mapping, safety codes, and tax incen‐ tives and discentives.

Activities providing a criti‐ cal foundation in the effort to reduce the loss of life and property from natural and/or manmade disasters by avoiding or lessening the impact of a disaster and providing value to the public by creating safer communities… [F]ix the cy‐ cle of disaster damage, re‐ construction, and repeated damage. These activities or actions… will have a longterm sustained effect.

Hierarchy proceeds from city, to county, to state, to federal. At the local level, responders make regular re‐ ports on status of life and property, assistance re‐ quests, at regular intervals. County, state, and federal designate aid, collect and analyze reports, summarize for next highest level and continue until basic systems

58 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

are restored.

cue

Immediate actions to save lives, protect property and the environment, and meet basic human needs. Re‐ sponse also includes the ex‐ ecution of emergency plans and actions to support short-term recovery.

Activities taken immediately before, during, or directly af‐ ter an emergency that save lives, minimize property damage, or improve recov‐ ery; e.g., emergency man‐ agement plan activation, activation of emergency sys‐ tems, emergency instruc‐ tions to the public, emergency medical assis‐ tance, manning EOCs, recep‐ tion and care, shelter and evacuation, search and res‐

Comfort, 1985 [5] Cities should review, exer‐

Waugh, 1990 [6] Activities that develop op‐

FEMA, 2012 [7] Actions that involve a

dent.

combination of planning, resources, training, exer‐ cising, and organizing to build, sustain, and im‐ prove operational capa‐ bilities. Preparedness is the process of identifying the personnel, training, and equipment needed for a wide range of po‐ tential incidents, and de‐ veloping jurisdictionspecific plans for delivering capabilities when needed for an inci‐

erational capabilities for responding to an emer‐ gency (e.g. emergency operations plans, warning systems, emergency oper‐ ations centers, emergency communications net‐ works, emergency public information, mutual agreements, resource management plans, and training and exercises for emergency personnel

cise, and update their plans regularly based on staffing and past per‐ formance. Counties and states may review sum‐ marized local plans to identify resource needs and coordinate multijuris‐ dictional exercises. FEMA may review state plans and adjust resources ac‐ cordingly, as well as facili‐ tate coordination between states.

The four phases are widely considered to be overlapping and cyclical (Figure 1). Mitigation activities occur in all phases of a disaster, and frequently are most evident during recon‐ struction, which has since been informally added by practitioners as a part of the long-term recovery phase. The ongoing, ubiquitous nature of mitigation activities makes this the hard‐ est phase to clearly define with a beginning and end point. As reconstruction and recovery near completion, lessons learned from these phases are incorporated into preparedness ac‐ tivities with additional mitigation in mind, which in turn are set aside when a response be‐ comes necessary. Hazard Mitigation Plans are easiest to study within the context of the Planning phase, instead of Mitigation. According to the federal policy described later, miti‐ gation, recovery and even some response activities are directed by state and local Hazard Mitigation Plans. Although risk assessment, defined here to be part of the mitigation, is a critical step in authoring a HMP, the entire process will be grouped into the Preparedness phase for simplicity. This is also due to the complex nature of risk assessment as a separate activity, and a tolerance for imprecision in the HMP approval process. Within the context of the Four Phase model, Preparedness, and specifically plan creation, at each level of govern‐ ment is described in the next section.

#### **3.1. Planning for disaster in federal, state, and local government**

The role of local-level emergency planning within the national emergency management framework is one of great importance. Federal government provides direction and goals for local planners, but primarily serves as a financial supporter when governments are unable to meet these goals. Likewise, the state acts as a regional conduit between federal and local government, providing aid to its local jurisdictions as needed. This concept, known as shared governance, is a reflection of American attitudes about self-governance. In their book exploring policy implementation issues within the federal government, May and Williams [8] cited, as an example of this mindset, the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965, which marked the first time in U.S. history that the federal government assumed a di‐ rect funding role in public education. Although American government was deliberately de‐ signed in this fashion, it can cause a dilemma:

On the one hand, federal officials have a strong stake in promoting hazard mitigation and preparedness but little direct control over the effectiveness of such efforts. On the other hand, in the aggregate, sub-national governments and individuals owning property in haz‐ ardous areas directly control the effectiveness of mitigation and preparedness policies, but for the most part actions consistent with such policies are low on their list of priorities. [8]

**2.** A risk assessment, including: (i) a description of the type, location, and extent of all nat‐ ural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction, including previous occurrences and (ii) a description of the jurisdictions vulnerability to the hazards. Vulnerability should be de‐ scribed in terms of: (A) types and numbers of existing infrastructure, (B) an estimate of potential dollar losses to vulnerable structures, and (C) a description of land uses and development trends. (iii) "For multi-jurisdictional plans, the risk assessment section must assess each jurisdiction's risks where they vary from the risks facing the entire

Hazard Mitigation Planning in the United States: Historical Perspectives, Cultural Influences, and Current Challenges

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/54209

61

**3.** A mitigation strategy, including: (i) long-term mitigation goals, (ii) a description of spe‐ cific actions for new and existing structures, and (iii) an action plan for how the above

**4.** A plan maintenance process, including: (i) a description of maintenance for the plan on a five-year cycle, (ii) a process, if possible, to incorporate mitigation efforts into other aspects of local planning, and (iii) a discussion on continuing public maintenance of the

**5.** Documentation that the plan has been formally adopted by all participating jurisdic‐

Because the legal style of The Rule can be tedious and lacking examples, FEMA published a series of how-to guides for state and local mitigation planning [10]. The first four guides list‐ ed are considered the "Core Four" of HMPs, with the remaining guides available for those

**1.** Getting started with the mitigation planning process, including important considera‐ tions for how you can organize your efforts to develop an effective mitigation plan (FE‐

**2.** Identifying hazards and assessing losses to your community, State, or Tribe (FEMA

**3.** Setting mitigation priorities and goals for your community, State, or Tribe and writing

**4.** Implementing the mitigation plan, including project funding and maintaining a dynam‐

**5.** Evaluating potential mitigation actions through the use of benefit-cost review (FEMA

**6.** Incorporating special considerations into hazard mitigation planning for historic prop‐

**7.** Incorporating mitigation considerations for manmade hazards into hazard mitigation

erties and cultural resources, the topic of this how-to guide (FEMA 386-6);

ic plan that changes to meet new developments (FEMA 386-4);

**8.** Multi-Jurisdictional Mitigation Planning (FEMA 386-8); and

will be implemented, prioritized by cost-benefit analysis.

planning area."

tions [44 CFR 201.6(c)].

jurisdictions as applicable:

the plan (FEMA 386-3);

planning (FEMA 386-7);

MA 386-1);

386-2);

386-5);

plan.

**Figure 1.** The cyclic nature of the Four Phase Model

In the following sections, emergency planning at each phase of government will be dis‐ cussed, with particular emphasis on local response to the recent federal demands for Hazard Mitigation Plans.

#### **3.2. What is a hazard mitigation plan?**

Before discussing how Hazard Mitigation Plans are completed within the government, it is worth briefly considering: what exactly is a Hazard Mitigation Plan? The Disaster Mitiga‐ tion Act of 2000 [9] only lists two requirements for local mitigation plans, stating that the plans "shall (1) describe actions to mitigate hazards, risks, and vulnerabilities identified un‐ der the plan; and (2) establish a strategy to implement those actions" [P.L. 106-390 § 322(b)]. FEMA's Interim Final Rule (The Rule) provides much more specific requirements based on these guidelines. In summary, a Hazard Mitigation Plan must include:

**1.** Documentation of the planning process;

**2.** A risk assessment, including: (i) a description of the type, location, and extent of all nat‐ ural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction, including previous occurrences and (ii) a description of the jurisdictions vulnerability to the hazards. Vulnerability should be de‐ scribed in terms of: (A) types and numbers of existing infrastructure, (B) an estimate of potential dollar losses to vulnerable structures, and (C) a description of land uses and development trends. (iii) "For multi-jurisdictional plans, the risk assessment section must assess each jurisdiction's risks where they vary from the risks facing the entire planning area."

On the one hand, federal officials have a strong stake in promoting hazard mitigation and preparedness but little direct control over the effectiveness of such efforts. On the other hand, in the aggregate, sub-national governments and individuals owning property in haz‐ ardous areas directly control the effectiveness of mitigation and preparedness policies, but for the most part actions consistent with such policies are low on their list of priorities. [8]

60 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

In the following sections, emergency planning at each phase of government will be dis‐ cussed, with particular emphasis on local response to the recent federal demands for Hazard

Before discussing how Hazard Mitigation Plans are completed within the government, it is worth briefly considering: what exactly is a Hazard Mitigation Plan? The Disaster Mitiga‐ tion Act of 2000 [9] only lists two requirements for local mitigation plans, stating that the plans "shall (1) describe actions to mitigate hazards, risks, and vulnerabilities identified un‐ der the plan; and (2) establish a strategy to implement those actions" [P.L. 106-390 § 322(b)]. FEMA's Interim Final Rule (The Rule) provides much more specific requirements based on

these guidelines. In summary, a Hazard Mitigation Plan must include:

**Figure 1.** The cyclic nature of the Four Phase Model

**3.2. What is a hazard mitigation plan?**

**1.** Documentation of the planning process;

Mitigation Plans.


Because the legal style of The Rule can be tedious and lacking examples, FEMA published a series of how-to guides for state and local mitigation planning [10]. The first four guides list‐ ed are considered the "Core Four" of HMPs, with the remaining guides available for those jurisdictions as applicable:


**9.** Finding and securing technical and financial resources for mitigation planning (FEMA 386-9).

in 1979 (see [2]). Each of these contained multiple sub-organizations concerned with differ‐ ent areas of emergency management, and operated within a wide range of government groups, from the Department of Defense (DOD) to Housing and Urban Development (HUD) [2]. As a result of the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, FEMA was brought un‐ der the auspices of the newly created Department of Homeland Security (DHS); and after a controversial response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 CNN reported that a congressional

Hazard Mitigation Planning in the United States: Historical Perspectives, Cultural Influences, and Current Challenges

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63

After the changes made at the federal level during 1970s, policy continued to evolve through amendments to the Disaster Relief Act of 1974 with the Robert T. Stafford Disas‐ ter Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (1988), and the Disaster Mitigation Act (2000). Each amendment encourages localities to "focus on individual and community infrastruc‐ tures," unless the disaster is beyond their ability to manage [12]. Further, "if the disaster exceeds the state's capacity to respond … the state governor [is allowed] to request aid from the national government. FEMA evaluates the request, prepares material for presi‐ dential approval, and coordinates the federal response" [12]. Local and state governments now officially bore the responsibility for emergency planning, although federal response

The Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 was significant because by its own title was the first law to emphasize the mitigation and preparedness phases of the Four Phase model, rather than "relief" or "assistance" as before; this was achieved by expanding Section 404 of the Stafford Act, which authorized the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) as a means by which jurisdictions *that had received presidential declarations of disaster* could apply for and receive federal assistance for mitigation projects. An additional program, for Pre-Disaster Mitigation grants (PDMs), was instituted so that a presidential declaration was not a requirement to ap‐ ply for funding directed at mitigation activity; however the application process is separate, nationally competitive, and less familiar than that of the HMGP; and often the amount of money made available for funding applications through presidential declarations is substan‐ tially higher. In amending Section 404 of the Stafford Act, Section 322(a) of the Disaster Miti‐ gation Act required state and local mitigation plans to be in place before any applications

a condition of receipt of an increased Federal share for hazard mitigation measures…a State, local, or tribal government shall develop and submit for approval to the President a mitiga‐ tion plan that outlines the processes for identifying the natural hazards, risks, and vulnera‐

The Disaster Mitigation Act provided a legal foundation for FEMA to author an Interim Fi‐ nal Rule under the Federal Register (44 CFR Parts 201 and 206). As discussed in the previous section, the Rule provides specific clarification, based on the Disaster Mitigation Act, for re‐ ceiving funding through FEMA under the HMGP. Beginning at the state level, a state can

bilities of the area under the jurisdiction of the government.

committee was calling for the abolition of FEMA [11].

capacity had been expanded.

were made to the HMGP:

All of the guides have a similar format of listing the specific subsection of The Rule, and then provide an explanation, a list of required activities, recommended activities, and exam‐ ples for how to implement the specific part of The Rule in a clear, non-legal style.

The eighth volume of the How-To Guide, published in 2006 (386-8), is titled "Multi-Jurisdic‐ tional Mitigation Planning" and provides guidelines for this specific type of local plan au‐ thorship. Although there are many ways to organize a multi-jurisdictional plan, the guide recommends a specific structure to follow; the common portion of the plan may include the "process, common hazards, general mitigation goals, collaborative actions, and [plan] main‐ tenance [schedule]." The items unique to each participating jurisdiction that may be includ‐ ed are: "geographically specific hazards, risks, specific [mitigation] goals, actions, participation, and adoption" [10]. In other words, the number of activities for which the costs would fall exclusively to a single jurisdiction has already been reduced.

If a plan is to be submitted as a multi-jurisdictional HMP, 386-8 provides specific require‐ ments that must be met at each stage of the process. FEMA 386-8 makes recommendations for how to implement the requirements, and tips and examples for following the recommen‐ dations. Since the recommendations are not mandatory, and each jurisdiction is unique, the recommendations are not included in summary table. One critical component for multi-ju‐ risdictional plans however, is "documentation" or "proof or adoption" is required from par‐ ticipating single jurisdictions. This refers to city or county resolutions that were passed in the individual jurisdictions to adopt the regional or multi-jurisdictional mitigation plan.

With regard to plan participation, the organization of multiple jurisdictions generally fol‐ lows three models: Direct Representation, Authorized Representation, and a combination of the two. The first involves sending "direct representatives" to the plan author, who coordi‐ nates the creation of the plan. For the second, the individual jurisdictions will authorize the plan author to act on their behalf, usually through city or county resolution [10]. A combina‐ tion of the two can also be created. Any or all of the models are acceptable, but may lead to different cost situations.

#### *3.2.1. Planning at the federal and state level*

As the U.S. exited the Cold War, emergency management at all levels of government contin‐ ued to evolve and in 1974 with The Disaster Relief Act was enacted. The primary goal of the Disaster Relief Act was to update the federal response and relief system described earlier, and to grant more power to the federal government to provide aid in the immediate after‐ math of a disaster. In 1979, following the Disaster Relief Act, the Federal Emergency Man‐ agement Agency (FEMA) was formed. While FEMA remains the national organization for emergency management, past structuring of the federal bureaucracy has shown that these institutions are frequently replaced. Predecessors to FEMA include: The Office of Civil and Defense Mobilization (1958), the Office of Emergency Preparedness (1961), The Civil De‐ fense Preparedness Agency (1972), and finally the Federal Emergency Management Agency in 1979 (see [2]). Each of these contained multiple sub-organizations concerned with differ‐ ent areas of emergency management, and operated within a wide range of government groups, from the Department of Defense (DOD) to Housing and Urban Development (HUD) [2]. As a result of the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, FEMA was brought un‐ der the auspices of the newly created Department of Homeland Security (DHS); and after a controversial response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 CNN reported that a congressional committee was calling for the abolition of FEMA [11].

**9.** Finding and securing technical and financial resources for mitigation planning (FEMA

All of the guides have a similar format of listing the specific subsection of The Rule, and then provide an explanation, a list of required activities, recommended activities, and exam‐

The eighth volume of the How-To Guide, published in 2006 (386-8), is titled "Multi-Jurisdic‐ tional Mitigation Planning" and provides guidelines for this specific type of local plan au‐ thorship. Although there are many ways to organize a multi-jurisdictional plan, the guide recommends a specific structure to follow; the common portion of the plan may include the "process, common hazards, general mitigation goals, collaborative actions, and [plan] main‐ tenance [schedule]." The items unique to each participating jurisdiction that may be includ‐ ed are: "geographically specific hazards, risks, specific [mitigation] goals, actions, participation, and adoption" [10]. In other words, the number of activities for which the

If a plan is to be submitted as a multi-jurisdictional HMP, 386-8 provides specific require‐ ments that must be met at each stage of the process. FEMA 386-8 makes recommendations for how to implement the requirements, and tips and examples for following the recommen‐ dations. Since the recommendations are not mandatory, and each jurisdiction is unique, the recommendations are not included in summary table. One critical component for multi-ju‐ risdictional plans however, is "documentation" or "proof or adoption" is required from par‐ ticipating single jurisdictions. This refers to city or county resolutions that were passed in the individual jurisdictions to adopt the regional or multi-jurisdictional mitigation plan.

With regard to plan participation, the organization of multiple jurisdictions generally fol‐ lows three models: Direct Representation, Authorized Representation, and a combination of the two. The first involves sending "direct representatives" to the plan author, who coordi‐ nates the creation of the plan. For the second, the individual jurisdictions will authorize the plan author to act on their behalf, usually through city or county resolution [10]. A combina‐ tion of the two can also be created. Any or all of the models are acceptable, but may lead to

As the U.S. exited the Cold War, emergency management at all levels of government contin‐ ued to evolve and in 1974 with The Disaster Relief Act was enacted. The primary goal of the Disaster Relief Act was to update the federal response and relief system described earlier, and to grant more power to the federal government to provide aid in the immediate after‐ math of a disaster. In 1979, following the Disaster Relief Act, the Federal Emergency Man‐ agement Agency (FEMA) was formed. While FEMA remains the national organization for emergency management, past structuring of the federal bureaucracy has shown that these institutions are frequently replaced. Predecessors to FEMA include: The Office of Civil and Defense Mobilization (1958), the Office of Emergency Preparedness (1961), The Civil De‐ fense Preparedness Agency (1972), and finally the Federal Emergency Management Agency

ples for how to implement the specific part of The Rule in a clear, non-legal style.

62 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

costs would fall exclusively to a single jurisdiction has already been reduced.

386-9).

different cost situations.

*3.2.1. Planning at the federal and state level*

After the changes made at the federal level during 1970s, policy continued to evolve through amendments to the Disaster Relief Act of 1974 with the Robert T. Stafford Disas‐ ter Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (1988), and the Disaster Mitigation Act (2000). Each amendment encourages localities to "focus on individual and community infrastruc‐ tures," unless the disaster is beyond their ability to manage [12]. Further, "if the disaster exceeds the state's capacity to respond … the state governor [is allowed] to request aid from the national government. FEMA evaluates the request, prepares material for presi‐ dential approval, and coordinates the federal response" [12]. Local and state governments now officially bore the responsibility for emergency planning, although federal response capacity had been expanded.

The Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 was significant because by its own title was the first law to emphasize the mitigation and preparedness phases of the Four Phase model, rather than "relief" or "assistance" as before; this was achieved by expanding Section 404 of the Stafford Act, which authorized the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) as a means by which jurisdictions *that had received presidential declarations of disaster* could apply for and receive federal assistance for mitigation projects. An additional program, for Pre-Disaster Mitigation grants (PDMs), was instituted so that a presidential declaration was not a requirement to ap‐ ply for funding directed at mitigation activity; however the application process is separate, nationally competitive, and less familiar than that of the HMGP; and often the amount of money made available for funding applications through presidential declarations is substan‐ tially higher. In amending Section 404 of the Stafford Act, Section 322(a) of the Disaster Miti‐ gation Act required state and local mitigation plans to be in place before any applications were made to the HMGP:

a condition of receipt of an increased Federal share for hazard mitigation measures…a State, local, or tribal government shall develop and submit for approval to the President a mitiga‐ tion plan that outlines the processes for identifying the natural hazards, risks, and vulnera‐ bilities of the area under the jurisdiction of the government.

The Disaster Mitigation Act provided a legal foundation for FEMA to author an Interim Fi‐ nal Rule under the Federal Register (44 CFR Parts 201 and 206). As discussed in the previous section, the Rule provides specific clarification, based on the Disaster Mitigation Act, for re‐ ceiving funding through FEMA under the HMGP. Beginning at the state level, a state can either have a Standard or Enhanced Mitigation Plan that will result in a 15% or 20% increase in HMGP funding, respectively. The state is also allowed to use up to 7% of the HMGP funding to cover the expenses of writing state, local, or tribal plans. As of November 2007, 48 states had approved Standard Plans, and two states were waiting for approval on submit‐ ted plans. Seven of the 48 states with approved plans had also elevated their status to hav‐ ing approved Enhanced Plans, showing the state-level implementation of plans was highly successful. The Rule explicitly states that "[t]o be eligible to receive HMGP project grants, local governments must develop Local Mitigation Plans that include a risk assessment and mitigation strategy to reduce potential losses and target resources. Plans must be reviewed, revised, and submitted to us for approval every 5 years" (p. 8847). Local Mitigation Plans are also referred to as Hazard Mitigation Plans (HMPs), or Mitigation Action Plans, by FE‐ MA and local planners alike. An important note for later discussions on the cultural influen‐ ces in local planning, The Rule further specifies that "[m]ulti-jurisdictional plans may be accepted, as appropriate, as long as each jurisdiction has participated in the process and has officially adopted the plan. State-wide plans will not be accepted as multi-jurisdictional plans" [44 CFR § 201.6(3)].

…a multi-service entity with state and locally-defined boundaries that delivers a variety of federal, state and local programs while continuing its function as a planning organization, technical assistance provider and "visionary" to its member local governments. As such, they are accountable to local units of government and effective partners for state and federal

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65

In support of the notion within emergency management that inter-organizational coopera‐ tion is crucial, [13] believes "the role of the regional council has been shaped by the chang‐ ing dynamics in federal, state and local government relations, and the growing recognition that the region is the arena in which local governments must work together to resolve social

As emergency management evolves and becomes more advanced, the earlier quotation from

On the one hand, federal officials have a strong stake in promoting hazard mitigation and preparedness but little direct control over the effectiveness of such efforts. On the other hand, in the aggregate, sub-national governments and individuals owning property in haz‐ ardous areas directly control the effectiveness of mitigation and preparedness policies, but for the most part actions consistent with such policies are low on their list of priorities [8].

Because of increased globalization, a community that was once relatively isolated might now house critical facilities for a distant parent company. Sociologist Arjen Boin notes how deeply systemic and interlinked society as become, allowing the effects of disaster to spread and multiply more rapidly than in the past, and stressing the need for improved local disas‐

First, Western societies become increasingly dependent on complex systems to deliver most basic tasks ranging from garbage collection to national defense. Second, the various subsys‐ tems become increasingly tightly coupled, which means that a disturbance in one system

All levels of government participate in some way in all levels of emergency management, creating a complex system of interlinked activities. Ultimately though, the entire structure of emergency management in the United States, and within the Four Phase model, depends on preparedness at the local level. This concept is aptly publicized by the planning require‐ ments within the Disaster Mitigation Act and FEMA's Interim Final Rule. Despite general consensus that local preparedness is essential, its execution has traditionally been of mini‐ mal quality, low priority, and host to a multitude of administrative problems. These are dis‐

governments [13].

ter planning:

and environmental challenges."

[8] becomes more relevant. Recall that:

rapidly propagates toward another [14].

cussed in the following sections.

To encourage a fast response to the new local-level planning requirements, The Rule origi‐ nally set a deadline of November 1, 2003. Prior to that date, writing plans and applying for funding through the HMGP could be done simultaneously. In October 2003 the deadline was changed to November 1, 2004 with an amendment in the Federal Register, stating that "local governments must have an approved mitigation plan in order to receive project grants under any Notice of Funding Opportunity [including PDMs] issued after November 1, 2003 [fiscal year 2004 and later]" (p. 61368). Interestingly, this legislation used a limitation of access to federal grants to motivate local governments to create HMPs.

From this sequence of bureaucratic re-organization and policy implementation, it is clear that planning for disasters at the federal level has involved maintaining a reliable response and relief capacity, and passing the planning responsibilities to state and local government. This is not counterintuitive however, as local residents have a better understanding of their areas, and would be the first to respond during a disaster.

#### *3.2.2. Planning at the local level*

While federal and state governments are easily recognizable, it is worth considering the def‐ initions of local government when considering the planning that occurs there. The U.S. Cen‐ sus Bureau provides rigorous definitions for city governments, and a certain set of criteria that must be met for a local government to be considered legitimate. FEMA accepts plans from a wide variety of local governments, including tribal governments and individual school districts. When conducting any analysis on HMPs, a distinction should be made for which types of governments are under consideration. Councils of governments are not de‐ fined by the census bureau, and may take a variety of forms depending on the needs of lo‐ calities within a region. According to the National Association of Regional Councils (NARC), a regional council, or council of governments, is defined as:

…a multi-service entity with state and locally-defined boundaries that delivers a variety of federal, state and local programs while continuing its function as a planning organization, technical assistance provider and "visionary" to its member local governments. As such, they are accountable to local units of government and effective partners for state and federal governments [13].

either have a Standard or Enhanced Mitigation Plan that will result in a 15% or 20% increase in HMGP funding, respectively. The state is also allowed to use up to 7% of the HMGP funding to cover the expenses of writing state, local, or tribal plans. As of November 2007, 48 states had approved Standard Plans, and two states were waiting for approval on submit‐ ted plans. Seven of the 48 states with approved plans had also elevated their status to hav‐ ing approved Enhanced Plans, showing the state-level implementation of plans was highly successful. The Rule explicitly states that "[t]o be eligible to receive HMGP project grants, local governments must develop Local Mitigation Plans that include a risk assessment and mitigation strategy to reduce potential losses and target resources. Plans must be reviewed, revised, and submitted to us for approval every 5 years" (p. 8847). Local Mitigation Plans are also referred to as Hazard Mitigation Plans (HMPs), or Mitigation Action Plans, by FE‐ MA and local planners alike. An important note for later discussions on the cultural influen‐ ces in local planning, The Rule further specifies that "[m]ulti-jurisdictional plans may be accepted, as appropriate, as long as each jurisdiction has participated in the process and has officially adopted the plan. State-wide plans will not be accepted as multi-jurisdictional

64 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

To encourage a fast response to the new local-level planning requirements, The Rule origi‐ nally set a deadline of November 1, 2003. Prior to that date, writing plans and applying for funding through the HMGP could be done simultaneously. In October 2003 the deadline was changed to November 1, 2004 with an amendment in the Federal Register, stating that "local governments must have an approved mitigation plan in order to receive project grants under any Notice of Funding Opportunity [including PDMs] issued after November 1, 2003 [fiscal year 2004 and later]" (p. 61368). Interestingly, this legislation used a limitation

From this sequence of bureaucratic re-organization and policy implementation, it is clear that planning for disasters at the federal level has involved maintaining a reliable response and relief capacity, and passing the planning responsibilities to state and local government. This is not counterintuitive however, as local residents have a better understanding of their

While federal and state governments are easily recognizable, it is worth considering the def‐ initions of local government when considering the planning that occurs there. The U.S. Cen‐ sus Bureau provides rigorous definitions for city governments, and a certain set of criteria that must be met for a local government to be considered legitimate. FEMA accepts plans from a wide variety of local governments, including tribal governments and individual school districts. When conducting any analysis on HMPs, a distinction should be made for which types of governments are under consideration. Councils of governments are not de‐ fined by the census bureau, and may take a variety of forms depending on the needs of lo‐ calities within a region. According to the National Association of Regional Councils

of access to federal grants to motivate local governments to create HMPs.

areas, and would be the first to respond during a disaster.

(NARC), a regional council, or council of governments, is defined as:

plans" [44 CFR § 201.6(3)].

*3.2.2. Planning at the local level*

In support of the notion within emergency management that inter-organizational coopera‐ tion is crucial, [13] believes "the role of the regional council has been shaped by the chang‐ ing dynamics in federal, state and local government relations, and the growing recognition that the region is the arena in which local governments must work together to resolve social and environmental challenges."

As emergency management evolves and becomes more advanced, the earlier quotation from [8] becomes more relevant. Recall that:

On the one hand, federal officials have a strong stake in promoting hazard mitigation and preparedness but little direct control over the effectiveness of such efforts. On the other hand, in the aggregate, sub-national governments and individuals owning property in haz‐ ardous areas directly control the effectiveness of mitigation and preparedness policies, but for the most part actions consistent with such policies are low on their list of priorities [8].

Because of increased globalization, a community that was once relatively isolated might now house critical facilities for a distant parent company. Sociologist Arjen Boin notes how deeply systemic and interlinked society as become, allowing the effects of disaster to spread and multiply more rapidly than in the past, and stressing the need for improved local disas‐ ter planning:

First, Western societies become increasingly dependent on complex systems to deliver most basic tasks ranging from garbage collection to national defense. Second, the various subsys‐ tems become increasingly tightly coupled, which means that a disturbance in one system rapidly propagates toward another [14].

All levels of government participate in some way in all levels of emergency management, creating a complex system of interlinked activities. Ultimately though, the entire structure of emergency management in the United States, and within the Four Phase model, depends on preparedness at the local level. This concept is aptly publicized by the planning require‐ ments within the Disaster Mitigation Act and FEMA's Interim Final Rule. Despite general consensus that local preparedness is essential, its execution has traditionally been of mini‐ mal quality, low priority, and host to a multitude of administrative problems. These are dis‐ cussed in the following sections.

#### *3.2.2.1. What constitutes preparedness?*

Returning to the Four Phase model of emergency management proposed in 1979 by the NGA, the report failed to provide definitions for the phases; instead, suggested activities were included. For the preparedness phase, the NGA recommended:

**7.** test the plan with drills and exercises;

ance;" and

**8.** recognize that "planning is a continuing process;"

tation in an emergency" (adapted from [16]).

highlight the process rather than the written document.

bodies in emergency management is discussed in the next section.

ness phase. In summary, Comfort lists the county's responsibilities as:

*3.2.2.2. The role of counties and councils of governments*

**9.** recognize that due to the nature of local government culture [see Section 2.2.3.2.3], "emergency planning… is almost always conducted in the face of conflict and resist‐

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**10.** 1recognize that a plan is only ever truly tested and improved upon "with its implemen‐

The authors note that "often, there is a tendency to equate emergency planning with the presence of a written plan and similarly believe that a written plan is evidence of jurisdic‐ tional preparedness" [16]. In fact, as demonstrated in the ten guidelines, planning is a dy‐ namic process. Emphasizing a written plan may not be a bad idea, given the requirements of the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program; however a possible future task for policy might be to

Combining the definitions of the NGA Four Phase model with [4] and [16], preparedness within the context of emergency management is best thought of as a cyclic process, much like the Four Phase model, which consists of threat assessment, resource assessment and ac‐ quisition, inter- and intra-jurisdictional cooperation, drills and exercises, and finally writing a plan (see Figure 1). As previously discussed, a preliminary examination of FEMA data on Hazard Mitigation Plan completion has shown that over 90% of the "plan writing" phase of preparedness has occurred at the multi-jurisdictional level, especially within counties and COGs [15]. It would appear that these five activities within preparedness can occur with varying success at different levels of local government. The history of multi-government

With rare exception, emergency management literature has followed the governmental de‐ sign of the NGA model to the letter; the four phases are to be carried out at the federal, state, and local level. However, in the NGA report and subsequent literature, local government is seldom defined and assumed to mean primarily city, or occasionally, county government. Very little literature exists on the role of councils of governments in the preparedness phase.

An important note from the literature in emergency management is that "inter-organization‐ al" or "multi-jurisdictional" coordination is considered essential among disaster researchers; even if the terms are broad, encompass many types of coordination, and refer almost exclu‐ sively to the response phase of emergency management. Like [14], Louise Comfort argues that due to the increasing complexity of society, not only are effective local responses criti‐ cal, but are also "necessarily inter-organizational and interdisciplinary" [17]. Comfort had previously proposed specific roles for county emergency management within the prepared‐

**1.** Review individual city emergency plans and enter their data into a resource database;

Developing a response plan and training first responders to save lives and reduce disaster damage, including the identification of critical resources and the development of necessary agreements among responding agencies, both within the jurisdiction and with other juris‐ dictions [6].

Six years later, the NGA was better able to define each phase (see Table 1). Preparedness was defined as:

Developing a response plan based upon the risk assessment, training response personnel, arranging for necessary resources, making arrangements with other jurisdictions for sharing of resources, clarifying jurisdictional responsibilities, and so on. [14]

An interesting similarity between both definitions is that they encourage cooperation with other jurisdictions. Although this cooperation has appeared low on the list of priorities of local planners for reasons discussed later, recent research has shown multi-jurisdictional co‐ operation to be almost exclusively responsible for the creation of HMPs [15].

As the understanding of emergency planning and hazards progressed, a number of re‐ searchers would recommend activities that led to an increased state of preparedness for lo‐ cal emergency managers (see [16]). After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, [16] revisited these activities, summarized and combined the work that had been done previous‐ ly, and suggested ten guidelines for increased preparedness within the newfound context of terrorism as a viable threat. In summary, the ten steps are:


**7.** test the plan with drills and exercises;

*3.2.2.1. What constitutes preparedness?*

dictions [6].

was defined as:

responses;"

changing disaster demands;"

**4.** address inter-organizational coordination;

approach for multi-hazard management;"

cluding elected officials and the general public;

Returning to the Four Phase model of emergency management proposed in 1979 by the NGA, the report failed to provide definitions for the phases; instead, suggested activities

Developing a response plan and training first responders to save lives and reduce disaster damage, including the identification of critical resources and the development of necessary agreements among responding agencies, both within the jurisdiction and with other juris‐

Six years later, the NGA was better able to define each phase (see Table 1). Preparedness

Developing a response plan based upon the risk assessment, training response personnel, arranging for necessary resources, making arrangements with other jurisdictions for sharing

An interesting similarity between both definitions is that they encourage cooperation with other jurisdictions. Although this cooperation has appeared low on the list of priorities of local planners for reasons discussed later, recent research has shown multi-jurisdictional co‐

As the understanding of emergency planning and hazards progressed, a number of re‐ searchers would recommend activities that led to an increased state of preparedness for lo‐ cal emergency managers (see [16]). After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, [16] revisited these activities, summarized and combined the work that had been done previous‐ ly, and suggested ten guidelines for increased preparedness within the newfound context of

**1.** Base planning activities "upon accurate knowledge of the threat and of likely human

**3.** emphasize "response flexibility so that those involved in operations can adjust to

**5.** "integrate plans for each individual community hazard managed into a comprehensive

**6.** include a training program so that all involved parties are familiar with the plan, in‐

were included. For the preparedness phase, the NGA recommended:

66 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

of resources, clarifying jurisdictional responsibilities, and so on. [14]

terrorism as a viable threat. In summary, the ten steps are:

operation to be almost exclusively responsible for the creation of HMPs [15].

**2.** encourage an appropriate, rather than quick or impulsive, response;


The authors note that "often, there is a tendency to equate emergency planning with the presence of a written plan and similarly believe that a written plan is evidence of jurisdic‐ tional preparedness" [16]. In fact, as demonstrated in the ten guidelines, planning is a dy‐ namic process. Emphasizing a written plan may not be a bad idea, given the requirements of the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program; however a possible future task for policy might be to highlight the process rather than the written document.

Combining the definitions of the NGA Four Phase model with [4] and [16], preparedness within the context of emergency management is best thought of as a cyclic process, much like the Four Phase model, which consists of threat assessment, resource assessment and ac‐ quisition, inter- and intra-jurisdictional cooperation, drills and exercises, and finally writing a plan (see Figure 1). As previously discussed, a preliminary examination of FEMA data on Hazard Mitigation Plan completion has shown that over 90% of the "plan writing" phase of preparedness has occurred at the multi-jurisdictional level, especially within counties and COGs [15]. It would appear that these five activities within preparedness can occur with varying success at different levels of local government. The history of multi-government bodies in emergency management is discussed in the next section.

#### *3.2.2.2. The role of counties and councils of governments*

With rare exception, emergency management literature has followed the governmental de‐ sign of the NGA model to the letter; the four phases are to be carried out at the federal, state, and local level. However, in the NGA report and subsequent literature, local government is seldom defined and assumed to mean primarily city, or occasionally, county government. Very little literature exists on the role of councils of governments in the preparedness phase.

An important note from the literature in emergency management is that "inter-organization‐ al" or "multi-jurisdictional" coordination is considered essential among disaster researchers; even if the terms are broad, encompass many types of coordination, and refer almost exclu‐ sively to the response phase of emergency management. Like [14], Louise Comfort argues that due to the increasing complexity of society, not only are effective local responses criti‐ cal, but are also "necessarily inter-organizational and interdisciplinary" [17]. Comfort had previously proposed specific roles for county emergency management within the prepared‐ ness phase. In summary, Comfort lists the county's responsibilities as:

**1.** Review individual city emergency plans and enter their data into a resource database;

**2.** Summarize database into county-wide profile of responsibilities and capabilities, and return this report to city governments for review;

practice at the local level however, both the preparedness phase of emergency management and the concept of shared governance even at a regional level is resisted and viewed with suspicion and disdain. Despite its apparent benefits, the difficulty in implementing multi-

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Planning for disaster in local government has traditionally been a neglected and misunder‐ stood part of emergency management. The reasons, summarized and listed in [19], include:

…diversity of hazards, low issue salience, resistance to regulatory efforts, resistance to plan‐ ning efforts, lack of a strong political constituency, lack of a strong administrative constitu‐ ency, problems with measuring the effectiveness of programs, the technical complexity of many emergency management efforts, vertical fragmentation of federal systems, horizontal fragmentation of governments and communities, current political and economic milieu, and

In other words, emergency management is not a simple matter. The complex and infrequent nature of disasters compared with more familiar problems places them low on the list of pri‐ orities for many planners. This lack of enthusiasm is compounded by local politics, turf pro‐ tection, and ambiguity caused by shared governance. These reasons for resistance to

Documenting this type of cultural phenomenon poses a challenge of a sociological nature. Presented below are the results of preliminary studies that have begun quantifying these barriers to success. The results indicate that an aversion to planning is frequently present among local government officials. The reason is twofold: the process itself is ongoing, ex‐ pensive, and time-consuming, and the background of many professionals in emergency management is one of trained rapid response. By asking city planners to rate their own suc‐ cesses in the formation of mandated local toxic chemical emergency planning committees (LEPCs) under SARA Title III, five years after the policy went into effect in the state of Mich‐

On average, LEPCs had completed 31% of the task of conducting hazard analyses, 26% of the task of developing site-specific emergency plans, and 15% of the task of training emer‐ gency responders. Moreover, they rated the quality of their LEPCs work (on a scale of 1-5, 5 is very high quality) at 2.88 for organizing and administering the LEPC, 2.46 for conducting hazard analyses, 2.55 for developing site specific plans, 1.71 for training emergency res‐

Lindell's results indicate that not only are planners reluctant to take action, but willingly rank themselves as such. In a follow-up study [21], Lindell found that the largest contribu‐

ponders, 2.02 for conducting drills and exercises, and 2.64 for filing hazard data [20].

planning efforts can cause both vertical and horizontal fragmentation of government.

jurisdictional cooperation is discussed next.

*3.2.2.3. Cultural issues in local government*

state and local capacity [19].

igan, M. Lindell [20] found that:


Two important factors in Comfort's guidelines are that first, she recognizes the importance of a coordinating government to act between the city and state levels, but she also relies on the assumption that individual cities will author their own plans.

In 1994, William Waugh expanded on Comfort's role for county government. Waugh ar‐ gued that counties should be the exclusive home of local emergency management, because county offices generally:


Waugh's reasoning may provide some insight into why the success rates for Hazard Mitiga‐ tion Plan authorship are so high for counties and COGs. Yet in many rural areas, counties only encompass a small number of sparsely populated municipalities, which raises the ques‐ tion of when county governments or COGs are more appropriate in the planning process.

Only one example of a successful COG exists in the literature, and it receives a brief mention in a report by Thomas Drabek [18]. In 1990, Drabek published the results of a study of twelve highly successful local emergency managers. From what he learned through person‐ al visits and interviews, Drabek extracted fifteen qualities that all of the managers shared; one of which was the formation of "mergers." While this generally meant the cooperation between public and private organizations, or inter-departmental cooperation, Drabek found that Donald Herrick of Davidson County, South Dakota founded the James Valley Emergen‐ cy and Disaster Service District- "a four county emergency services unit" [18].

Undoubtedly the academic aspect of emergency management recognizes the usefulness of regionalized government, especially counties and within the response phase of a disaster. In practice at the local level however, both the preparedness phase of emergency management and the concept of shared governance even at a regional level is resisted and viewed with suspicion and disdain. Despite its apparent benefits, the difficulty in implementing multijurisdictional cooperation is discussed next.

#### *3.2.2.3. Cultural issues in local government*

**2.** Summarize database into county-wide profile of responsibilities and capabilities, and

**3.** Conduct drills and exercises that bring multiple organizations together; 4) evaluate the

**4.** improve preparedness at the county level and "seek assistance…from inter-jurisdiction‐

Two important factors in Comfort's guidelines are that first, she recognizes the importance of a coordinating government to act between the city and state levels, but she also relies on

In 1994, William Waugh expanded on Comfort's role for county government. Waugh ar‐ gued that counties should be the exclusive home of local emergency management, because

**3.** have ambiguous administrative structures that encourage inter- and intra-organization‐

**7.** serve as general-purpose governments representing local interests and have strong lo‐

Waugh's reasoning may provide some insight into why the success rates for Hazard Mitiga‐ tion Plan authorship are so high for counties and COGs. Yet in many rural areas, counties only encompass a small number of sparsely populated municipalities, which raises the ques‐ tion of when county governments or COGs are more appropriate in the planning process. Only one example of a successful COG exists in the literature, and it receives a brief mention in a report by Thomas Drabek [18]. In 1990, Drabek published the results of a study of twelve highly successful local emergency managers. From what he learned through person‐ al visits and interviews, Drabek extracted fifteen qualities that all of the managers shared; one of which was the formation of "mergers." While this generally meant the cooperation between public and private organizations, or inter-departmental cooperation, Drabek found that Donald Herrick of Davidson County, South Dakota founded the James Valley Emergen‐

Undoubtedly the academic aspect of emergency management recognizes the usefulness of regionalized government, especially counties and within the response phase of a disaster. In

cy and Disaster Service District- "a four county emergency services unit" [18].

return this report to city governments for review;

**5.** schedule, monitor and evaluate preparedness activities; and

the assumption that individual cities will author their own plans.

**1.** are geographically close to environmental problems,

**2.** have larger resource bases than municipalities,

**5.** have close administrative ties to state agencies, **6.** provide forums for local-local cooperation, and

**4.** are local agents of state administration,

cal identification (adapted from [3]).

**6.** submit an annual report of these activities to the state (adapted from [17]).

68 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

performance of the cities in these drills;

al sources;"

county offices generally:

al cooperation,

Planning for disaster in local government has traditionally been a neglected and misunder‐ stood part of emergency management. The reasons, summarized and listed in [19], include:

…diversity of hazards, low issue salience, resistance to regulatory efforts, resistance to plan‐ ning efforts, lack of a strong political constituency, lack of a strong administrative constitu‐ ency, problems with measuring the effectiveness of programs, the technical complexity of many emergency management efforts, vertical fragmentation of federal systems, horizontal fragmentation of governments and communities, current political and economic milieu, and state and local capacity [19].

In other words, emergency management is not a simple matter. The complex and infrequent nature of disasters compared with more familiar problems places them low on the list of pri‐ orities for many planners. This lack of enthusiasm is compounded by local politics, turf pro‐ tection, and ambiguity caused by shared governance. These reasons for resistance to planning efforts can cause both vertical and horizontal fragmentation of government.

Documenting this type of cultural phenomenon poses a challenge of a sociological nature. Presented below are the results of preliminary studies that have begun quantifying these barriers to success. The results indicate that an aversion to planning is frequently present among local government officials. The reason is twofold: the process itself is ongoing, ex‐ pensive, and time-consuming, and the background of many professionals in emergency management is one of trained rapid response. By asking city planners to rate their own suc‐ cesses in the formation of mandated local toxic chemical emergency planning committees (LEPCs) under SARA Title III, five years after the policy went into effect in the state of Mich‐ igan, M. Lindell [20] found that:

On average, LEPCs had completed 31% of the task of conducting hazard analyses, 26% of the task of developing site-specific emergency plans, and 15% of the task of training emer‐ gency responders. Moreover, they rated the quality of their LEPCs work (on a scale of 1-5, 5 is very high quality) at 2.88 for organizing and administering the LEPC, 2.46 for conducting hazard analyses, 2.55 for developing site specific plans, 1.71 for training emergency res‐ ponders, 2.02 for conducting drills and exercises, and 2.64 for filing hazard data [20].

Lindell's results indicate that not only are planners reluctant to take action, but willingly rank themselves as such. In a follow-up study [21], Lindell found that the largest contribu‐ tors to the time commitments needed for plan completion were: committee member input, available planning resources, and community support. Staffing and structure within the government and the city's vulnerability to hazards were not found to be significant (see [21]).

ing preparedness policy, based on perceived likelihood of adoption, perceived benefits of strategy, and perceived effort of adoption. Among other strategies, such as citizen education and creating a media information center, inter-jurisdictional forums ranked third and sec‐ ond respectively in benefit and effort, but dropped to fourth for the likelihood of adoption [25]. The authors surmised that the planners recognized the benefit of inter-jurisdictional

Hazard Mitigation Planning in the United States: Historical Perspectives, Cultural Influences, and Current Challenges

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71

Drabek's study [18] of successful emergency managers also supported these conclusions, highlighting the political reasons for avoiding working with other jurisdictions and even de‐ partments within their single jurisdiction. Drabek sited "turf defense" as a major barricade to what he called the "sensitive ground" of "coalition building" [18]. Drabek specifically cit‐ ed an emergency manager that had tried to start a smoke detector and fire extinguisher cam‐ paign in his jurisdiction, much to the irritation of the fire department, who felt such a campaign was their responsibility and resented the emergency manager for making them

The previous sections provided a history of the planning subsection of the preparedness phase of emergency management. Planning at the federal level is limited; federal govern‐ ment is primarily a financier and supporting partner of response, recovery, and mitigation efforts. The most recent federal policy, the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 and FEMA's sub‐ sequent Interim Final Rule (44 CFR Parts 201 and 206) have required that all local jurisdic‐ tions have an approved Hazard Mitigation Plan in order to be eligible for any federal

The states play intermediate roles in transferring information between local and federal gov‐ ernments, and the local governments are responsible for their own planning. Using the five aspects of preparedness [4, 16], Table 2 shows how some roles within the Preparedness phase can be checked off by definition, while others remain poorly understood. To carry out any of the activities listed at the regional level, without the knowledge or cooperation of the city level, would be extremely poor planning. Similarly, inter- and intra-jurisdictional coop‐ eration requires the participation of multiple jurisdictions by definition. The remaining roles however, are poorly understood within the literature. For instance, what is the role of a council of governments in drills and exercises? Are they activities that require maximum co‐ operation, or are counties better suited to perform this task so as to avoid over-complica‐ tion? This chapter focused on planning at the city, county, and COG level (Table 2) but

certainly more research is needed in the other areas of the Preparedness phase.

**Table 2.** The Roles of Local Government within the Preparedness Phase

COG ? ? ? + ? County ? ? ? + ? City + + + + +

Plan TA RAA IJC D&E

*3.2.3. Summary of planning for disaster in federal, state, and local government*

collaboration, but deemed it too difficult to execute.

look unconcerned about prevention.

funding opportunities.

Lindell's findings [20, 21] were supported by two recent papers (see Buckle et al. [22]; and Stuart-Black et al. [23]). Buckle et al. found that the unfamiliar nature of hazards made them less appealing for planners, and that good communication between local government and community led to better planning [22]. The second study [23] surveyed local emergency managers to determine the composition of the field with regard to education, background, age, sex, and previous job experience. The results demonstrated a lack of value placed on education or academic training, with preferences given to practical experience in defense or response-oriented jobs. One of the motivations for the study was what the authors described as an informal "notion…that those doing the job were older men from a military or emer‐ gency services background, who having retired from their service were embarking on a sec‐ ond career in order to boost their pensions" [23]. In the United Kingdom, the study found that 76% of local planners looking to hire a new emergency manager were not even consid‐ ering recent graduates or degree holders [23]. The planners estimated they would fill their positions using employees with significant experience or those looking for a transition into retirement. When asked where they expected to find potential candidates, the planners re‐ sponded that they "expected to recruit from the local government sector (63%), first re‐ sponse (37%), and/or retired military (34%)," with percentages including responses where multiple sectors were chosen as potential hiring pools. The surveys also asked why these sectors where chosen, and "the overwhelming answer was that age and experience were paramount to the job, and younger applicants were not always able to bring the necessary authority that was needed in dealing with senior officers and elected council members." In regard to this "overwhelming" response, the authors commented that "clearly the emergen‐ cy planners are by their own actions and beliefs perpetuating the myth." Though the "no‐ tion" that prompted surveys in [23] was informal and not fully documented, it certainly is supported by the data collected.

Local emergency managers appear to subscribe to the war-oriented approach described by [1] above. Often police and fire departments closely resemble the military in structure, train‐ ing, and operation, with all groups placing high emphasis on the ability to act rationally and maintain order in emergency situations. As indicated by [23], this leads directly to hiring preferences that value the experienced responder above all other candidates. It also leads to a second inhibitor to local planning: the difficulties of implementing inter-jurisdictional co‐ operation.

Policy research has shown that because of differing priorities of various agencies, such as police and fire, "bureaucrats tend to avoid communication with their counterparts in other agencies, even when their responsibilities clearly overlap or interface… In general, the more coordination required to implement a policy, the less chances of its success" (Edwards, 1978, as quoted in [24]). Kartez and Kelley [25] supported this finding with their own survey of local emergency planners. The planners were asked to rank seven strategies for implement‐ ing preparedness policy, based on perceived likelihood of adoption, perceived benefits of strategy, and perceived effort of adoption. Among other strategies, such as citizen education and creating a media information center, inter-jurisdictional forums ranked third and sec‐ ond respectively in benefit and effort, but dropped to fourth for the likelihood of adoption [25]. The authors surmised that the planners recognized the benefit of inter-jurisdictional collaboration, but deemed it too difficult to execute.

Drabek's study [18] of successful emergency managers also supported these conclusions, highlighting the political reasons for avoiding working with other jurisdictions and even de‐ partments within their single jurisdiction. Drabek sited "turf defense" as a major barricade to what he called the "sensitive ground" of "coalition building" [18]. Drabek specifically cit‐ ed an emergency manager that had tried to start a smoke detector and fire extinguisher cam‐ paign in his jurisdiction, much to the irritation of the fire department, who felt such a campaign was their responsibility and resented the emergency manager for making them look unconcerned about prevention.

#### *3.2.3. Summary of planning for disaster in federal, state, and local government*

tors to the time commitments needed for plan completion were: committee member input, available planning resources, and community support. Staffing and structure within the government and the city's vulnerability to hazards were not found to be significant (see

70 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Lindell's findings [20, 21] were supported by two recent papers (see Buckle et al. [22]; and Stuart-Black et al. [23]). Buckle et al. found that the unfamiliar nature of hazards made them less appealing for planners, and that good communication between local government and community led to better planning [22]. The second study [23] surveyed local emergency managers to determine the composition of the field with regard to education, background, age, sex, and previous job experience. The results demonstrated a lack of value placed on education or academic training, with preferences given to practical experience in defense or response-oriented jobs. One of the motivations for the study was what the authors described as an informal "notion…that those doing the job were older men from a military or emer‐ gency services background, who having retired from their service were embarking on a sec‐ ond career in order to boost their pensions" [23]. In the United Kingdom, the study found that 76% of local planners looking to hire a new emergency manager were not even consid‐ ering recent graduates or degree holders [23]. The planners estimated they would fill their positions using employees with significant experience or those looking for a transition into retirement. When asked where they expected to find potential candidates, the planners re‐ sponded that they "expected to recruit from the local government sector (63%), first re‐ sponse (37%), and/or retired military (34%)," with percentages including responses where multiple sectors were chosen as potential hiring pools. The surveys also asked why these sectors where chosen, and "the overwhelming answer was that age and experience were paramount to the job, and younger applicants were not always able to bring the necessary authority that was needed in dealing with senior officers and elected council members." In regard to this "overwhelming" response, the authors commented that "clearly the emergen‐ cy planners are by their own actions and beliefs perpetuating the myth." Though the "no‐ tion" that prompted surveys in [23] was informal and not fully documented, it certainly is

Local emergency managers appear to subscribe to the war-oriented approach described by [1] above. Often police and fire departments closely resemble the military in structure, train‐ ing, and operation, with all groups placing high emphasis on the ability to act rationally and maintain order in emergency situations. As indicated by [23], this leads directly to hiring preferences that value the experienced responder above all other candidates. It also leads to a second inhibitor to local planning: the difficulties of implementing inter-jurisdictional co‐

Policy research has shown that because of differing priorities of various agencies, such as police and fire, "bureaucrats tend to avoid communication with their counterparts in other agencies, even when their responsibilities clearly overlap or interface… In general, the more coordination required to implement a policy, the less chances of its success" (Edwards, 1978, as quoted in [24]). Kartez and Kelley [25] supported this finding with their own survey of local emergency planners. The planners were asked to rank seven strategies for implement‐

[21]).

supported by the data collected.

operation.

The previous sections provided a history of the planning subsection of the preparedness phase of emergency management. Planning at the federal level is limited; federal govern‐ ment is primarily a financier and supporting partner of response, recovery, and mitigation efforts. The most recent federal policy, the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 and FEMA's sub‐ sequent Interim Final Rule (44 CFR Parts 201 and 206) have required that all local jurisdic‐ tions have an approved Hazard Mitigation Plan in order to be eligible for any federal funding opportunities.

The states play intermediate roles in transferring information between local and federal gov‐ ernments, and the local governments are responsible for their own planning. Using the five aspects of preparedness [4, 16], Table 2 shows how some roles within the Preparedness phase can be checked off by definition, while others remain poorly understood. To carry out any of the activities listed at the regional level, without the knowledge or cooperation of the city level, would be extremely poor planning. Similarly, inter- and intra-jurisdictional coop‐ eration requires the participation of multiple jurisdictions by definition. The remaining roles however, are poorly understood within the literature. For instance, what is the role of a council of governments in drills and exercises? Are they activities that require maximum co‐ operation, or are counties better suited to perform this task so as to avoid over-complica‐ tion? This chapter focused on planning at the city, county, and COG level (Table 2) but certainly more research is needed in the other areas of the Preparedness phase.


**Table 2.** The Roles of Local Government within the Preparedness Phase

Although placing responsibility for planning at the local level is logical, considering locals know their areas the best and are the first to respond to a disaster, literature shows that in practice there are many more factors at play. First, writing a plan on paper is only a small portion of preparedness as a whole. Second, the individual government success rate for Hazard Mitigation Plans is minute compared to that for multi-jurisdictional bodies; even though the latter is not well understood in the literature. Finally, a political, response-based culture at the local level has consistently made multi-jurisdictional cooperation difficult.

However a third dimension may be added to the model to show what aspects of emergency management can influence the activities within certain areas of government. Three factors were found to have a significant effect on organizing emergency management activities within a government by [21] as discussed earlier: available resources, committee input, and community support. It is likely that there are many more factors that influence preparedness and cooperation in local emergency planning, but these have yet to be documented in the literature. In addition to influencing emergency management activities, these three factors also provide frameworks for measuring the activities. A pictorial representation (Figure 3) provides a visual summary of the Four Phase Model, extended to all levels of government, and within the contexts for action identified by [21], and clearly shows the complexity faced

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73

**Figure 3.** A Conceptual Model of the National Emergency Management System. Copyright © 2008 Andrea M. Jack‐

Most of the emergency management literature in this chapter is presented within the context of planning, specifically for hazard mitigation in a local community. However based on Ta‐ ble 1, the findings of [21], and the established structure of American government, it is not

**3.3. Hazard mitigation planning as part of a national emergency management system**

by local planners.

man & Mario G. Beruvides

Returning to planning and preparedness within the context of a national emergency manage‐ ment system, recall that emergency management follows a four-phase model developed in 1979 by the National Governor's Association. The four phases are: preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation. They are accepted as standard among practitioners of emergency management, and are widely considered to be overlapping and cyclical (Figure 1). All four phases contain component activities as demonstrated in the literature (Table 1). Due to the complexity of actual disasters, it is likely that even more activities and sub-categories exist within these divisions, but they have yet to be formally established by the literature.

As defined by the NGA model, the four phases of emergency management can be extended to all levels of government (Figure 2). A typical assumption in emergency management liter‐ ature is that government in the United States is divided into local, state, and federal levels. However local government can be further subdivided into municipality/town, county, and COG. The activities that comprise the four phases of emergency management may be car‐ ried out at all levels of government.

**Figure 2.** Four phases of emergency management at all levels of government

However a third dimension may be added to the model to show what aspects of emergency management can influence the activities within certain areas of government. Three factors were found to have a significant effect on organizing emergency management activities within a government by [21] as discussed earlier: available resources, committee input, and community support. It is likely that there are many more factors that influence preparedness and cooperation in local emergency planning, but these have yet to be documented in the literature. In addition to influencing emergency management activities, these three factors also provide frameworks for measuring the activities. A pictorial representation (Figure 3) provides a visual summary of the Four Phase Model, extended to all levels of government, and within the contexts for action identified by [21], and clearly shows the complexity faced by local planners.

Although placing responsibility for planning at the local level is logical, considering locals know their areas the best and are the first to respond to a disaster, literature shows that in practice there are many more factors at play. First, writing a plan on paper is only a small portion of preparedness as a whole. Second, the individual government success rate for Hazard Mitigation Plans is minute compared to that for multi-jurisdictional bodies; even though the latter is not well understood in the literature. Finally, a political, response-based culture at the local level has consistently made multi-jurisdictional cooperation difficult.

72 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Returning to planning and preparedness within the context of a national emergency manage‐ ment system, recall that emergency management follows a four-phase model developed in 1979 by the National Governor's Association. The four phases are: preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation. They are accepted as standard among practitioners of emergency management, and are widely considered to be overlapping and cyclical (Figure 1). All four phases contain component activities as demonstrated in the literature (Table 1). Due to the complexity of actual disasters, it is likely that even more activities and sub-categories exist within these divisions, but

As defined by the NGA model, the four phases of emergency management can be extended to all levels of government (Figure 2). A typical assumption in emergency management liter‐ ature is that government in the United States is divided into local, state, and federal levels. However local government can be further subdivided into municipality/town, county, and COG. The activities that comprise the four phases of emergency management may be car‐

they have yet to be formally established by the literature.

**Figure 2.** Four phases of emergency management at all levels of government

ried out at all levels of government.

**Figure 3.** A Conceptual Model of the National Emergency Management System. Copyright © 2008 Andrea M. Jack‐ man & Mario G. Beruvides

#### **3.3. Hazard mitigation planning as part of a national emergency management system**

Most of the emergency management literature in this chapter is presented within the context of planning, specifically for hazard mitigation in a local community. However based on Ta‐ ble 1, the findings of [21], and the established structure of American government, it is not unreasonable to begin imagining the complexity of our national emergency management system as illustrated in Figure 3. Certainly there is more research to be done; more activities may be added to the subdivisions of the Four Phase Model as our national approach to emergency management grows and evolves, and further motivating factors for each activity will likely be discovered beyond those in [21] that were found to influence planning.

new. An understanding of the implementation of the HMGP policy is critical for this rea‐

Hazard Mitigation Planning in the United States: Historical Perspectives, Cultural Influences, and Current Challenges

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75

The HMGP policy that led to HMPs as a requirement was put into place in November, 2004. Based on the material covered in the previous sections, two questions naturally arise: first, how many local jurisdictions have completed HMPs since the original deadline? Second, for those localities with an approved HMP, how did they manage given all the documented cul‐

These questions were answered in part by a recent series of studies [15, 26]. An initial study [15] found that in 2008, 67% of the country's active local governments were without an ap‐

**Figure 4.** Map of Hazard Mitigation Plan Completion Percentage for the Continental United States in 2008 [15]

A follow up examination in 2009 [15] of the eight states with the lowest completion percen‐ tages did not indicate significant improvement following the initial study, and revealed in‐ consistencies in plan completion data over time. The completion percentage varied greatly by state, and did not appear to follow any expected pattern such as wealth or hazard vulner‐ ability that might encourage prompt completion of a plan. Further, the results indicated that

son, and is discussed in the next section.

tural aversions to planning at the local level?

proved Hazard Mitigation Plan (Figure 4).

**4. Hazard mitigation planning in the 21st century**

However one aspect of Figure 3 cannot be disputed: the complexity of our national emer‐ gency management system will not get any simpler. Even the introductory overview of liter‐ ature provided in this chapter is able to justify an 18 x 5 x 3 conceptual diagram – equaling a minimum of 270 individual components that make up the national system of emergency management. Recalling the words of sociologist Arjen Boin from earlier:

First, Western societies become increasingly dependent on complex systems to deliver most basic tasks ranging from garbage collection to national defense. Second, the various subsys‐ tems become increasingly tightly coupled, which means that a disturbance in one system rapidly propagates toward another [14].

Hazard mitigation planning is a small component of emergency management. Even ex‐ panded to all possible levels of government, it is only one type of plan among many, and planning is only one type of activity in overall preparedness. Yet one might ques‐ tion, how "tightly coupled" is it with other aspects of emergency management? How rapidly will one action within a HMP propagate to other subsystems within emergency management as a whole? A simple HMP may be comprised of a community risk assess‐ ment and one or two mitigative actions to reduce those risks. But the risk assessment is likely based on past disasters in the community. The lessons learned and recommended actions from those disasters in turn influence future responses, which influence future re‐ covery efforts, which will drive mitigation planning and risk assessments in later years. Through Figure 3 we see how one activity affects many others within the system. At first glance, local hazard mitigation planning seems distant and unrelated to decontami‐ nation efforts managed by the federal government. However an effective mitigation strat‐ egy put in to place today through the HMP process may significantly reduce the need for decontamination or any federal involvement at all. As another example, the after-ac‐ tion report of a state-level search and rescue team could directly impact risk assess‐ ments, planning, and mitigation strategy following a major disaster.

Hazard mitigation planning at the local and COG level, studied from all possible plan‐ ning contexts, only comprises (at most) 9 out of 270 subsections of Figure 3, or 3%. This estimate does not include the further breakdown of different kinds of plans in addition to HMPs, yet was shown to influence many other subsections of Figure 3. This illustrates not only the importance of understanding hazard mitigation plans, but the impact of *any legislative action* taken in emergency management. The true impact of a single act can have vast, sometimes unpredictable consequences, especially in a system such as emer‐ gency management where current practices and scientific research are still relatively new. An understanding of the implementation of the HMGP policy is critical for this rea‐ son, and is discussed in the next section.

### **4. Hazard mitigation planning in the 21st century**

unreasonable to begin imagining the complexity of our national emergency management system as illustrated in Figure 3. Certainly there is more research to be done; more activities may be added to the subdivisions of the Four Phase Model as our national approach to emergency management grows and evolves, and further motivating factors for each activity

However one aspect of Figure 3 cannot be disputed: the complexity of our national emer‐ gency management system will not get any simpler. Even the introductory overview of liter‐ ature provided in this chapter is able to justify an 18 x 5 x 3 conceptual diagram – equaling a minimum of 270 individual components that make up the national system of emergency

First, Western societies become increasingly dependent on complex systems to deliver most basic tasks ranging from garbage collection to national defense. Second, the various subsys‐ tems become increasingly tightly coupled, which means that a disturbance in one system

Hazard mitigation planning is a small component of emergency management. Even ex‐ panded to all possible levels of government, it is only one type of plan among many, and planning is only one type of activity in overall preparedness. Yet one might ques‐ tion, how "tightly coupled" is it with other aspects of emergency management? How rapidly will one action within a HMP propagate to other subsystems within emergency management as a whole? A simple HMP may be comprised of a community risk assess‐ ment and one or two mitigative actions to reduce those risks. But the risk assessment is likely based on past disasters in the community. The lessons learned and recommended actions from those disasters in turn influence future responses, which influence future re‐ covery efforts, which will drive mitigation planning and risk assessments in later years. Through Figure 3 we see how one activity affects many others within the system. At first glance, local hazard mitigation planning seems distant and unrelated to decontami‐ nation efforts managed by the federal government. However an effective mitigation strat‐ egy put in to place today through the HMP process may significantly reduce the need for decontamination or any federal involvement at all. As another example, the after-ac‐ tion report of a state-level search and rescue team could directly impact risk assess‐

Hazard mitigation planning at the local and COG level, studied from all possible plan‐ ning contexts, only comprises (at most) 9 out of 270 subsections of Figure 3, or 3%. This estimate does not include the further breakdown of different kinds of plans in addition to HMPs, yet was shown to influence many other subsections of Figure 3. This illustrates not only the importance of understanding hazard mitigation plans, but the impact of *any legislative action* taken in emergency management. The true impact of a single act can have vast, sometimes unpredictable consequences, especially in a system such as emer‐ gency management where current practices and scientific research are still relatively

will likely be discovered beyond those in [21] that were found to influence planning.

74 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

management. Recalling the words of sociologist Arjen Boin from earlier:

ments, planning, and mitigation strategy following a major disaster.

rapidly propagates toward another [14].

The HMGP policy that led to HMPs as a requirement was put into place in November, 2004. Based on the material covered in the previous sections, two questions naturally arise: first, how many local jurisdictions have completed HMPs since the original deadline? Second, for those localities with an approved HMP, how did they manage given all the documented cul‐ tural aversions to planning at the local level?

These questions were answered in part by a recent series of studies [15, 26]. An initial study [15] found that in 2008, 67% of the country's active local governments were without an ap‐ proved Hazard Mitigation Plan (Figure 4).

**Figure 4.** Map of Hazard Mitigation Plan Completion Percentage for the Continental United States in 2008 [15]

A follow up examination in 2009 [15] of the eight states with the lowest completion percen‐ tages did not indicate significant improvement following the initial study, and revealed in‐ consistencies in plan completion data over time. The completion percentage varied greatly by state, and did not appear to follow any expected pattern such as wealth or hazard vulner‐ ability that might encourage prompt completion of a plan. Further, the results indicated that approximately 92% of the approved plans were completed by multi-jurisdictional entities, which suggests single governments seldom complete and gain approval for plans. This is di‐ rectly opposed to expectations set by literature documenting cultural barriers to multi-juris‐ dictional collaboration, and presents a number of opportunities for further research.

**Author details**

Andrea M. Jackman1

tion with IBM.

**References**

275-300.

1990.

cessed 19 February 2012).

and Mario G. Beruvides2

2 Texas Tech University Department of Industrial Engineering, USA

1 Advanced Analytics & Optimization, IBM Corporation, Pittsburgh, PA, USA

The research presented herein was completed by the author as an employee of Texas Tech University and prior to any affiliation with IBM Corporation. The findings of this research shall not be used by the author to support, solicit, or gain commercial benefits in competi‐

Hazard Mitigation Planning in the United States: Historical Perspectives, Cultural Influences, and Current Challenges

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/54209

77

[1] Quarantelli EL. Disaster Studies: An Analysis of the Social Historical Factors Affect‐ ing the Development of Research in the Area. International Journal of Mass Emer‐

[2] Kreps GA. The Federal Emergency Management System in the United States: Past and Present. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters 1990; 8(3),

[3] Waugh WL. Regionalizing Emergency Management: Counties as State and Local

[4] Petak WJ. Emergency Management: A Challenge for Public Administration. Public

[5] Comfort LK. Integrating Organizational Action in Emergency Management; Strat‐ egies for Change. Public Administration Review 1985; Special Issue, 155-164.

[6] Waugh WL, Hy RJ, eds. Handbook of Emergency Management: Programs and Poli‐ cies Dealing with Major Hazards and Disasters. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press;

[7] Federal Emergency Management Agency. National Response Framework Resource Center: Glossary/Acronyms. http://www.fema.gov/emergency/nrf/glossary.htm (ac‐

[8] May PJ, Williams W. Disaster Policy Implementation: Managing Programs under

Shared Governance. New York, NY: Plenum Publishing Company; 1986.

[9] Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000, Pub. L. No. 106-390, 114 Stat. 1552.

Government. Public Administration Review 1994; 54(3), 253-258.

\*Address all correspondence to: andrea.jackman@us.ibm.com

gencies and Disasters 1987; 5(3), 285-310.

Administration Review 1985; Special Issue, 3-7.

The study was conducted for the initial three year period of the HMGP from 2004 to 2007, and given the results, it is important to note that federal policy such as the HMP requirements can change quickly and often. Strategic directions, policy, and guidance can change regularly, and is always expected at the federal level following a change in ad‐ ministration. The completion percentages demonstrated in this study represent an impor‐ tant step in understanding how long it takes for jurisdictions to react to policy changes and take necessary steps to become compliant, especially given the systemic complexity demonstrated in Figure 3.

A second study [26] examined HMP completion within the context of "available resources" from Figure 3; namely, cost. It was found that the cost of a HMP varied significantly based on the frequency of natural hazards experienced by the authoring jurisdiction, the number of participating jurisdictions in the plan, population, and population density. Similarly, mul‐ ti-jurisdictional plans were found to be significantly cheaper unless a jurisdiction experi‐ enced, on average, more than 6.5 events requiring some kind of emergency response per year (see [26]). This would provide a financial incentive for jurisdictions to override some of the cultural barriers mentioned earlier, and proceed with a multi-jurisdictional plan. In view of the realities presented thus far and the sheer complexity of the US emergency manage‐ ment system, future research might benefit from a systems analysis and systems dynamic modeling to assist in shaping our national emergency management policy.

Where will hazard mitigation planning go from here? The importance of having at least some level of understanding of the possible impacts of any new emergency management policy were illustrated by Figure 3, and this section demonstrates that for the example of hazard mitigation planning, relatively little is known about its implementation, success, and longevity. Planning in general was shown by the literature to be valued by policy‐ makers and theorists, but difficult to execute in practice for a variety of reasons. Due to the far-reaching consequences of good mitigation and mitigation planning, continued re‐ search in this area is critical to a better understanding of our entire national emergency management system.

#### **Acknowledgements**

The research presented in this chapter was originally conducted as a part of the first au‐ thor's doctoral thesis. See [27].This research was funded in part by the National Science Foundation, Grant No. 022168.

### **Author details**

approximately 92% of the approved plans were completed by multi-jurisdictional entities, which suggests single governments seldom complete and gain approval for plans. This is di‐ rectly opposed to expectations set by literature documenting cultural barriers to multi-juris‐

The study was conducted for the initial three year period of the HMGP from 2004 to 2007, and given the results, it is important to note that federal policy such as the HMP requirements can change quickly and often. Strategic directions, policy, and guidance can change regularly, and is always expected at the federal level following a change in ad‐ ministration. The completion percentages demonstrated in this study represent an impor‐ tant step in understanding how long it takes for jurisdictions to react to policy changes and take necessary steps to become compliant, especially given the systemic complexity

A second study [26] examined HMP completion within the context of "available resources" from Figure 3; namely, cost. It was found that the cost of a HMP varied significantly based on the frequency of natural hazards experienced by the authoring jurisdiction, the number of participating jurisdictions in the plan, population, and population density. Similarly, mul‐ ti-jurisdictional plans were found to be significantly cheaper unless a jurisdiction experi‐ enced, on average, more than 6.5 events requiring some kind of emergency response per year (see [26]). This would provide a financial incentive for jurisdictions to override some of the cultural barriers mentioned earlier, and proceed with a multi-jurisdictional plan. In view of the realities presented thus far and the sheer complexity of the US emergency manage‐ ment system, future research might benefit from a systems analysis and systems dynamic

Where will hazard mitigation planning go from here? The importance of having at least some level of understanding of the possible impacts of any new emergency management policy were illustrated by Figure 3, and this section demonstrates that for the example of hazard mitigation planning, relatively little is known about its implementation, success, and longevity. Planning in general was shown by the literature to be valued by policy‐ makers and theorists, but difficult to execute in practice for a variety of reasons. Due to the far-reaching consequences of good mitigation and mitigation planning, continued re‐ search in this area is critical to a better understanding of our entire national emergency

The research presented in this chapter was originally conducted as a part of the first au‐ thor's doctoral thesis. See [27].This research was funded in part by the National Science

modeling to assist in shaping our national emergency management policy.

dictional collaboration, and presents a number of opportunities for further research.

76 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

demonstrated in Figure 3.

management system.

**Acknowledgements**

Foundation, Grant No. 022168.

Andrea M. Jackman1 and Mario G. Beruvides2

\*Address all correspondence to: andrea.jackman@us.ibm.com

1 Advanced Analytics & Optimization, IBM Corporation, Pittsburgh, PA, USA

2 Texas Tech University Department of Industrial Engineering, USA

The research presented herein was completed by the author as an employee of Texas Tech University and prior to any affiliation with IBM Corporation. The findings of this research shall not be used by the author to support, solicit, or gain commercial benefits in competi‐ tion with IBM.

#### **References**


[10] Federal Emergency Management Agency. How-To Guide for State and Local Mitiga‐ tion Planning (No. 386). Jessup, MD: Author; 2002.

[24] Ender RL, Kim, JCK. (1988). The Design and Implementation of Disaster Mitigation Policy. In Comfort LK (ed.) Managing Disaster: Strategies and Policy Perspectives.

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[25] Kartez JD, Kelley WJ. (1988). Research-based Disaster Planning: Conditions for Im‐ plementation. In Comfort LK (ed.) Managing Disaster: Strategies and Policy Perspec‐

[26] Jackman AM, Beruvides MG. How Much Do Hazard Mitigation Plans Cost? An Analysis of Federal Grant Data. Working paper; submitted 9 July 2012 to the Journal

[27] Jackman, AM. An Analysis of the Cost of Hazard Mitigation Planning Policy in Local

and Regional Government. Ph.D. Thesis. Texas Tech University; 2008.

Durham, NC: Duke Press; 1988 p69.

of Emergency Management.

tives. Durham, NC: Duke Press; 1988 p135.


[24] Ender RL, Kim, JCK. (1988). The Design and Implementation of Disaster Mitigation Policy. In Comfort LK (ed.) Managing Disaster: Strategies and Policy Perspectives. Durham, NC: Duke Press; 1988 p69.

[10] Federal Emergency Management Agency. How-To Guide for State and Local Mitiga‐

[11] American Morning [Television News Program]. Should This Be the End of FEMA? (27 April 2006). Lexis-Nexis at transcripts.cnn.com (accessed 21 May 2007).

[12] Daniels RS, Clark-Daniels CL. Vulnerability Reduction and Political Responsiveness: Explaining Executive Decisions in U.S. Disaster Policy during the Ford and Carter Administrations. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters 2002;

[13] National Association of Regional Councils. What is a Regional Council? http:// narc.org/regional-councils-mpos/what-is-a-regional-council.html (accessed 20 No‐

[14] Boin A. Disaster Research and Future Crises: Broadening the Research Agenda. Inter‐

[15] Jackman AM, Beruvides MG (2008). Local Hazard Mitigation Plans: A Preliminary Estimation of State-Level Completion from 2004 to 2009. Working paper; accepted

[16] Lindell MK, Perry RW. Preparedness for Emergency Responses: Guidelines for the

[17] Comfort LK. Designing Policy for Action: The Emergency Management System. In: Comfort, LK. (ed.) Managing Disaster: Strategies and Policy Perspectives. Duke

[18] Drabek TE. Emergency Management: Strategies for Maintaining Organizational In‐

[19] Waugh WL. Emergency Management and the Capacity of State and Local Govern‐ ment. In: Sylves RT, Waugh W (eds.) Cities and Disaster: North American Studies in

[20] Lindell MK. Are Local Emergency Planning Committees Effective in Developing Community Disaster Preparedness? International Journal of Mass Emergencies and

[21] Lindell MK, Meier MJ. Planning Effectiveness of Community Planning for Toxic Chemical Emergencies. Journal of the American Planning Association 1994; 60(2),

[22] Buckle P, Marsh GL, Smale S. Reframing Risk, Hazards, Disasters, and Daily Life: A Report of Research into Local Appreciation of Risks and Threats. International Jour‐

[23] Stuart-Black J, Coles E, Norman S. Bridging the Divide from Theory to Practice. Inter‐

national Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters 2005; 23(3), 177-198.

Emergency Management. Springfield, IL: Charles C. Thomas; 1988.

nal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters 2002; 20(3), 309-324.

for publication on 9 August 2012 to the Journal of Emergency Management.

Emergency Planning Process. Disasters 2003; 27(4), 336-350.

Press: Durham, NC: Duke Press; 1988.

Disasters 1994; 12(2), 159-182.

222-236.

tegrity. Ann Arbor, MI: Springer-Verlag; 1990.

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tion Planning (No. 386). Jessup, MD: Author; 2002.

78 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

20(2), 225-253.

vember 2007).


**Section 2**

**Managing Information for Disaster**

**Management**

**Managing Information for Disaster Management**

**Chapter 4**

**Improved Disaster Management**

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

Decision makers must have timely and actionable information to guide their response to emergency situations. For environmental problems, this information is often produced using decision support systems (DSS), which is usually a computer-based, environmental simulation and prediction model that emphasizes access and manipulation of data and algorithms. Using historical time series data, current conditions, and physically-based algorithms the DSS can predict the potential outcomes for various decision scenarios, and may also provide the decision maker with uncertainty and risk estimates. In this way, the DSS can improve decision making efficiency and accuracy, facilitate decision maker exploration and discovery, commu‐

An important component of advanced decision support tools is data assimilation. Data assimilation is the application of recursive Bayesian estimation to combine current and past data in an explicit dynamical model, using the model's prognostic equations to provide time continuity and dynamic coupling amongst the fields. Data assimilation aims to utilize both our knowledge of physical processes as embodied in a numerical process model, and infor‐ mation that can be gained from observations, to produce an improved, continuous system state estimate in space and time. When implemented in near-real time, data assimilation can objectively provide decision makers with the timeliest information, as well as provide superior initializations for short term scenario predictions. Data assimilation can also act as a parameter

This chapter will provide an overview of data assimilation theory and its application to decision support tools, and then provide a review of current data assimilation applications in

> © 2013 Houser; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,

© 2013 Houser; licensee InTech. This is a paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

nication and information organization, and outreach and education.

estimation method to help reduce DSS bias and uncertainty.

**Using Data Assimilation**

Paul R. Houser

**1. Introduction**

disaster management.

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/55840

**Chapter 4**

### **Improved Disaster Management Using Data Assimilation**

Paul R. Houser

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/55840

#### **1. Introduction**

Decision makers must have timely and actionable information to guide their response to emergency situations. For environmental problems, this information is often produced using decision support systems (DSS), which is usually a computer-based, environmental simulation and prediction model that emphasizes access and manipulation of data and algorithms. Using historical time series data, current conditions, and physically-based algorithms the DSS can predict the potential outcomes for various decision scenarios, and may also provide the decision maker with uncertainty and risk estimates. In this way, the DSS can improve decision making efficiency and accuracy, facilitate decision maker exploration and discovery, commu‐ nication and information organization, and outreach and education.

An important component of advanced decision support tools is data assimilation. Data assimilation is the application of recursive Bayesian estimation to combine current and past data in an explicit dynamical model, using the model's prognostic equations to provide time continuity and dynamic coupling amongst the fields. Data assimilation aims to utilize both our knowledge of physical processes as embodied in a numerical process model, and infor‐ mation that can be gained from observations, to produce an improved, continuous system state estimate in space and time. When implemented in near-real time, data assimilation can objectively provide decision makers with the timeliest information, as well as provide superior initializations for short term scenario predictions. Data assimilation can also act as a parameter estimation method to help reduce DSS bias and uncertainty.

This chapter will provide an overview of data assimilation theory and its application to decision support tools, and then provide a review of current data assimilation applications in disaster management.

© 2013 Houser; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2013 Houser; licensee InTech. This is a paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

#### **2. Background**

Information about environmental conditions is of critical importance to real-world applica‐ tions such as agricultural production, water resource management, flood prediction, water supply, weather and climate forecasting, and environmental preservation. Improved estimates about current environmental conditions useful for agriculture, ecology, civil engineering, water resources management, rainfall-runoff prediction, atmospheric process studies, climate and weather/climate prediction, and radiation management [1,2].

This information is usually provided to decision makers through Decision Support Systems (DSS). DSS's are generally defined as interactive software-based systems that help to assemble useful information from raw data, documents, knowledge, and models to identify and resolve problems and make decisions. A model-driven DSS emphasizes access to and operation of a statistical, financial, optimization or physical simulation model. A datadriven DSS emphasizes access to and manipulation of a time-series of data and informa‐ tion. Data-driven DSS's combined with analytical model processing provide the highest level of functionality and decision support that is linked to analysis of large collections of historical data.

**Figure 1.** Illustration of an integrated environmental observation network. The network illustrated is the National Sci‐

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85

Data assimilation combines observations into a dynamical model, using the model's equations to provide time continuity and coupling between the estimated fields. Data assimilation aims to utilize both our environmental process knowledge, as embodied in a numerical computer model, and information that can be gained from observations. Both model predictions and observations are imperfect and we wish to use both synergistically to obtain a more accurate result. Moreover, both contain different kinds of information, that when used together, provide

**Figure 2.** Numerical models contain errors that increase with time due to model imperfections and uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions. Data assimilation minimizes these errors by correcting the model stats using new ob‐

ence Foundation (NSF) National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON).

an accuracy level that cannot be obtained individually.

servations (from http://www.hzg.de/institute/coastal\_research/cosyna).

Physically-based environmental models are often at the heart of powerful DSSs. They rely on a set of well-established physical principles to make current condition assessments and future projections. Physical model simulations are performed on powerful computer platforms, dividing the area of interest into elements in which fluxes and storages are calculated. Environmental parameters are provided by connected databases of observational and calibration data.

Observations are important components of DSSs, providing critical information that mitigates the risk of loss of life and damage to property. Environmental observations are sourced from the numerous disconnected observational networks and systems that have a wide variety of characteristics (Figure 1). Basic monthly, seasonal and annual summaries of temperature, rainfall and other climate elements provide an essential resource for planning endeavors in areas such as agriculture, water resources, emergency management, urban design, insurance, energy supply and demand management and construction.

While ground-based observational networks are improving, the only practical way to observe the environment on continental to global scales is via satellites. Remote sensing can make spatially comprehensive measurements of various components of the environ‐ ment, but it cannot provide information on the entire system, and the observations represent only an instant in time. Environmental process models may be used to predict the temporal and spatial state variations, but these predictions are often poor, due to model initialization, parameter and forcing, and physics errors. Therefore, an attractive prospect is to combine the strengths of environmental models contained within DSSs and observa‐ tions and minimize the weaknesses to provide a superior environmental state estimate. This is the goal of data assimilation.

**2. Background**

historical data.

calibration data.

Information about environmental conditions is of critical importance to real-world applica‐ tions such as agricultural production, water resource management, flood prediction, water supply, weather and climate forecasting, and environmental preservation. Improved estimates about current environmental conditions useful for agriculture, ecology, civil engineering, water resources management, rainfall-runoff prediction, atmospheric process studies, climate

84 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

This information is usually provided to decision makers through Decision Support Systems (DSS). DSS's are generally defined as interactive software-based systems that help to assemble useful information from raw data, documents, knowledge, and models to identify and resolve problems and make decisions. A model-driven DSS emphasizes access to and operation of a statistical, financial, optimization or physical simulation model. A datadriven DSS emphasizes access to and manipulation of a time-series of data and informa‐ tion. Data-driven DSS's combined with analytical model processing provide the highest level of functionality and decision support that is linked to analysis of large collections of

Physically-based environmental models are often at the heart of powerful DSSs. They rely on a set of well-established physical principles to make current condition assessments and future projections. Physical model simulations are performed on powerful computer platforms, dividing the area of interest into elements in which fluxes and storages are calculated. Environmental parameters are provided by connected databases of observational and

Observations are important components of DSSs, providing critical information that mitigates the risk of loss of life and damage to property. Environmental observations are sourced from the numerous disconnected observational networks and systems that have a wide variety of characteristics (Figure 1). Basic monthly, seasonal and annual summaries of temperature, rainfall and other climate elements provide an essential resource for planning endeavors in areas such as agriculture, water resources, emergency management, urban design, insurance,

While ground-based observational networks are improving, the only practical way to observe the environment on continental to global scales is via satellites. Remote sensing can make spatially comprehensive measurements of various components of the environ‐ ment, but it cannot provide information on the entire system, and the observations represent only an instant in time. Environmental process models may be used to predict the temporal and spatial state variations, but these predictions are often poor, due to model initialization, parameter and forcing, and physics errors. Therefore, an attractive prospect is to combine the strengths of environmental models contained within DSSs and observa‐ tions and minimize the weaknesses to provide a superior environmental state estimate.

and weather/climate prediction, and radiation management [1,2].

energy supply and demand management and construction.

This is the goal of data assimilation.

**Figure 1.** Illustration of an integrated environmental observation network. The network illustrated is the National Sci‐ ence Foundation (NSF) National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON).

Data assimilation combines observations into a dynamical model, using the model's equations to provide time continuity and coupling between the estimated fields. Data assimilation aims to utilize both our environmental process knowledge, as embodied in a numerical computer model, and information that can be gained from observations. Both model predictions and observations are imperfect and we wish to use both synergistically to obtain a more accurate result. Moreover, both contain different kinds of information, that when used together, provide an accuracy level that cannot be obtained individually.

**Figure 2.** Numerical models contain errors that increase with time due to model imperfections and uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions. Data assimilation minimizes these errors by correcting the model stats using new ob‐ servations (from http://www.hzg.de/institute/coastal\_research/cosyna).

The data assimilation challenge is to merge the spatially comprehensive observations with the dynamically complete but typically poor predictions of an environmental model to yield the best possible system state estimation (Figure 2). In this illustration, the model represents any environmental model that simulates system states. Model biases can be mitigated using a complementary calibration and parameterization process. However, model imperfections will always remain and will be exasperated by uncertain initial and boundary (forcing) conditions. Data assimilation techniques can be used to continuously partially reinitialize the model with information provided by observations. This reinitialization can be constrained by the model physics to assure that it is physically and dynamically realistic. Limited point measurements are often used to calibrate the model(s) and validate the assimilation results [3].

State updating can be justified by lack of knowledge about the model's initial conditions, but with unconstrained state updating, the model logic is foregone, while this is exactly the main strength of dynamic assimilation and modelling. If an intensive update of the state is needed for good results, the model may simply not be able to produce correct state or flux values. In such cases, assimilation for parameter estimation is better advised. The static parameters obtained through off-line calibration, prior to the actual forecast simulations, may not always result in a proper model definition, because of the state and time dependency of parameters or problems in the model structure or input. Often the model validation residuals show the

The data assimilation challenge is: given a (noisy) model of the system dynamics, find the best

problem are derived from either the direct observer (*i.e.*, sequential filter) or dynamic observer

**Figure 3.** Schematic of the (a) direct observer and (b) dynamic observer assimilation approaches [7].

result), using the difference between observation *yk* and model predicted observation *y*

ˆ ˆ ( ˆ ) *a b*

The subscript *k* refers to the time of the update. For particular assimilation techniques, like the Kalman filter, the gain represents the relative uncertainty in the observation and model variances, and is a number between 0 and 1 in the scalar case. If the uncertainty of the predicted observation (as calculated from the background states and their uncertainty) is large relative

known as the "innovation", whenever observations are available. The predicted observation is calculated from the model predicted or "background" states, indicated by the superscript *b*. The correction, or analysis increment, added to the background state vector is the innovation multiplied by a weighting factor or gain **K**. The resulting estimate of the state vector is known

Direct observer techniques sequentially update the model forecast *x*

**^** from (noisy) observations *y*. Most current approaches to this

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87

**^** *k*

*k k kk k* **x x Ky y**=+ - (1)

*<sup>b</sup>* (*a priori* simulation

**^** *k* ,

presence of bias, variation in error and a correlation structure.

(*i.e.*, variational through time) techniques (Figure 3).

estimates of system states *x*

**3.1. Direct observer assimilation**

as the "analysis", as indicated by the superscript *a*.

#### **3. Data assimilation**

Charney *et al.* (1969) first suggested combining current and past data in an explicit dynamical model, using the model's prognostic equations to provide time continuity and dynamic coupling amongst the fields [4]. This concept has evolved into a family of techniques known as data assimilation. In essence, data assimilation aims to utilize both our physical process knowledge as embodied in an environmental model, and information that can be gained from observations. Both model predictions and observations are imperfect and we wish to use both synergistically to obtain a more accurate result. Moreover, both contain different kinds of information, that when used together, provide an accuracy level that cannot be obtained when used separately.

Data assimilation techniques were established by meteorologists [5] and have been used very successfully to improve operational weather forecasts. Data assimilation has also been successfully used in oceanography[6] for improving ocean dynamics prediction. Houser et al., (2010) gave an overview of hydrological data assimilation, discussing different data assimila‐ tion methods and several case studies in hydrology [7].

Data assimilation was meant for state estimation, but in the broadest sense, data assimilation refers to any use of observational information to improve a model [8]. Basically, there are four methods for "model updating", as follows:


State updating can be justified by lack of knowledge about the model's initial conditions, but with unconstrained state updating, the model logic is foregone, while this is exactly the main strength of dynamic assimilation and modelling. If an intensive update of the state is needed for good results, the model may simply not be able to produce correct state or flux values. In such cases, assimilation for parameter estimation is better advised. The static parameters obtained through off-line calibration, prior to the actual forecast simulations, may not always result in a proper model definition, because of the state and time dependency of parameters or problems in the model structure or input. Often the model validation residuals show the presence of bias, variation in error and a correlation structure.

The data assimilation challenge is: given a (noisy) model of the system dynamics, find the best estimates of system states *x* **^** from (noisy) observations *y*. Most current approaches to this problem are derived from either the direct observer (*i.e.*, sequential filter) or dynamic observer (*i.e.*, variational through time) techniques (Figure 3).

**Figure 3.** Schematic of the (a) direct observer and (b) dynamic observer assimilation approaches [7].

#### **3.1. Direct observer assimilation**

The data assimilation challenge is to merge the spatially comprehensive observations with the dynamically complete but typically poor predictions of an environmental model to yield the best possible system state estimation (Figure 2). In this illustration, the model represents any environmental model that simulates system states. Model biases can be mitigated using a complementary calibration and parameterization process. However, model imperfections will always remain and will be exasperated by uncertain initial and boundary (forcing) conditions. Data assimilation techniques can be used to continuously partially reinitialize the model with information provided by observations. This reinitialization can be constrained by the model physics to assure that it is physically and dynamically realistic. Limited point measurements

Charney *et al.* (1969) first suggested combining current and past data in an explicit dynamical model, using the model's prognostic equations to provide time continuity and dynamic coupling amongst the fields [4]. This concept has evolved into a family of techniques known as data assimilation. In essence, data assimilation aims to utilize both our physical process knowledge as embodied in an environmental model, and information that can be gained from observations. Both model predictions and observations are imperfect and we wish to use both synergistically to obtain a more accurate result. Moreover, both contain different kinds of information, that when used together, provide an accuracy level that cannot be obtained when

Data assimilation techniques were established by meteorologists [5] and have been used very successfully to improve operational weather forecasts. Data assimilation has also been successfully used in oceanography[6] for improving ocean dynamics prediction. Houser et al., (2010) gave an overview of hydrological data assimilation, discussing different data assimila‐

Data assimilation was meant for state estimation, but in the broadest sense, data assimilation refers to any use of observational information to improve a model [8]. Basically, there are four

**•** *Input:* corrects model input forcing errors or replaces model-based forcing with observa‐

**•** *State:* corrects the state or storages of the model so that it comes closer to the observations

**•** *Parameter:* corrects or replaces model parameters with observational information (parameter

**•** *Error correction:* correct the model predictions or state variables by an observed timeintegrated error term in order to reduce systematic model bias (*e.g.* bias correction).

tion methods and several case studies in hydrology [7].

tions, thereby improving the model's predictions;

(state estimation, data assimilation in the narrow sense);

methods for "model updating", as follows:

estimation, calibration);

are often used to calibrate the model(s) and validate the assimilation results [3].

86 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

**3. Data assimilation**

used separately.

Direct observer techniques sequentially update the model forecast *x* **^** *k <sup>b</sup>* (*a priori* simulation result), using the difference between observation *yk* and model predicted observation *y* **^** *k* , known as the "innovation", whenever observations are available. The predicted observation is calculated from the model predicted or "background" states, indicated by the superscript *b*. The correction, or analysis increment, added to the background state vector is the innovation multiplied by a weighting factor or gain **K**. The resulting estimate of the state vector is known as the "analysis", as indicated by the superscript *a*.

$$
\hat{\mathbf{x}}\_k^a = \hat{\mathbf{x}}\_k^b + \mathbf{K}\_k \left( \mathbf{y}\_k - \hat{\mathbf{y}}\_k \right) \tag{1}
$$

The subscript *k* refers to the time of the update. For particular assimilation techniques, like the Kalman filter, the gain represents the relative uncertainty in the observation and model variances, and is a number between 0 and 1 in the scalar case. If the uncertainty of the predicted observation (as calculated from the background states and their uncertainty) is large relative to the uncertainty of the actual observation, then the analysis state vector takes on values that will closely yield the actual observation. Conversely, if the uncertainty of the predicted observation is small relative to the uncertainty of the actual observation, then the analysis state vector is unchanged from the original background value. The commonly used direct observer methods are: (i) direct insertion; (ii) statistical correction; (iii) successive correction; (iv) analysis correction; (v) nudging; (vi) optimal interpolation/statistical interpolation; (vii) 3-D variation‐ al, 3D-Var; and (viii) Kalman filter and variants [7].

tions are more accurate than model forecasts, with the observations fitted as closely as is consistent. Furthermore, the radii of influence are user-defined and should be determined by trial and error or more sophisticated methods that reduce the advantage of its simplicity. The weighting functions are empirically chosen and are not derived based on physical or statistical

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89

**Analysis correction**. This is a modification to the successive correction approach that is applied consecutively to each observation [14]. In practice, the observation update is mostly neglected and further assumptions make the update equation equivalent to that for optimal interpola‐

**Nudging**. Nudging or Newtonian relaxation consists of adding a term to the prognostic model equations that causes the solution to be gradually relaxed towards the observations. Nudging is very similar to the successive corrections technique and only differs in the fact that through the numerical model the time dimension is included. Two distinct approaches have been developed [16]. In analysis nudging, the nudging term for a given variable is proportional to the difference between the model simulation at a given grid point and an "analysis" of observations (*i.e.*, processed observations) calculated at the corresponding grid point. For observation nudging, the difference between the model simulation and the observed state is

**Optimal interpolation** The optimal interpolation (OI) approach, sometimes referred to as statistical interpolation, is a minimum variance method that is closely related to kriging. OI approximates the "optimal" solution often with a "fixed" structure for all time steps, given by prescribed variances and a correlation function determined only by distance [17]. Sometimes, the variances are allowed to evolve in time, while keeping the correlation structure time-

**3-D variational**. This approach directly solves the iterative minimization problem given [18]. The same approximation for the background covariance matrix as in the optimal interpolation

**Kalman filter**. The optimal analysis state estimate for linear or linearized systems (Kalman or Extended Kalman filter, EKF) can be found through a linear update equation with a Kalman gain that aims at minimizing the analysis error (co)variance of the analysis state estimate [19]. The essential feature which distinguishes the family of Kalman filter approaches from more static techniques, like optimal interpolation, is the dynamic updating of the forecast (back‐ ground) error covariance through time. In the traditional Kalman filter (KF) approach this is achieved by application of standard error propagation theory, using a (tangent) linear model. (The only difference between the Kalman filter and the Extended Kalman filter is that the forecast model is linearized using a Taylor series expansion in the latter; the same forecast and

A further approach to estimating the state covariance matrix is the Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF).As thename suggests,the covariances are calculatedfromanensembleof state forecasts using the Monte Carlo approach rather than a single discrete forecast of covariances [20].

properties. Obviously, this method is not effective in data sparse regions.

tion [15].

invariant.

approach is typically used.

update equations are used for each approach.)

calculated at the observation locations.

While approaches like direct insertion, nudging and optimal interpolation are computationally efficient and easy to implement, the updates do not account for observation uncertainty or utilize system dynamics in estimating model background state uncertainty, and information on estimation uncertainty is limited. The Kalman filter, while computationally demanding in its pure form, can be adapted for near-real-time application and provides information on estimation uncertainty. However, it has only limited capability to deal with different types of model errors, and necessary linearization approximations can lead to unstable solutions. The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), while it can be computationally demanding (depending on the size of the ensemble) is well suited for near-real-time applications without any need for linearization, is robust, very flexible and easy to use, and is able to accommodate a wide range of model error descriptions.

**Directinsertion**.Oneofthe earliest andmost simplistic approaches todata assimilationisdirect insertion. As the name suggests, the forecast model states are directly replaced with the observations by assuming that **K** = **I**, the unity matrix. This approach makes the explicit assumption that the model is wrong (has no useful information) and that the observations are right, which both disregards important information provided by the model and preserves observational errors. The risk of this approach is that unbalanced state estimates may result, which causes model shocks: the model will attempt to restore the dynamic balance that would haveexistedwithoutinsertion.Afurtherkeydisadvantageofthisapproachisthatmodelphysics are solely relied upon to propagate the information to unobserved parts of the system [9,10].

**Statistical correction**. A derivative of the direct insertion approach is the statistical correction approach, which adjusts the mean and variance of the model states to match those of the observations. This approach assumes the model pattern is correct but contains a non-uniform bias. First, the predicted observations are scaled by the ratio of observational field standard deviation to predicted field standard deviation. Second, the scaled predicted observational field is given a block shift by the difference between the means of the predicted observational field and the observational field [9]. This approach also relies upon the model physics to propagate the information to unobserved parts of the system.

**Successive correction**. The successive corrections method (SCM) [5,11-13] is also known as observation nudging. The scheme begins with an *a priori* state estimate (background field) for an individual (scalar) variable, which is successively adjusted by nearby observations in a series of scans (iterations, *n*) through the data. The advantage of this method lies in its simplicity. However, in case of observational error or different sources (and accuracies) of observations, this scheme is not a good option for assimilation, since information on the observational accuracy is not accounted for. Mostly, this approach assumes that the observa‐ tions are more accurate than model forecasts, with the observations fitted as closely as is consistent. Furthermore, the radii of influence are user-defined and should be determined by trial and error or more sophisticated methods that reduce the advantage of its simplicity. The weighting functions are empirically chosen and are not derived based on physical or statistical properties. Obviously, this method is not effective in data sparse regions.

to the uncertainty of the actual observation, then the analysis state vector takes on values that will closely yield the actual observation. Conversely, if the uncertainty of the predicted observation is small relative to the uncertainty of the actual observation, then the analysis state vector is unchanged from the original background value. The commonly used direct observer methods are: (i) direct insertion; (ii) statistical correction; (iii) successive correction; (iv) analysis correction; (v) nudging; (vi) optimal interpolation/statistical interpolation; (vii) 3-D variation‐

88 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

While approaches like direct insertion, nudging and optimal interpolation are computationally efficient and easy to implement, the updates do not account for observation uncertainty or utilize system dynamics in estimating model background state uncertainty, and information on estimation uncertainty is limited. The Kalman filter, while computationally demanding in its pure form, can be adapted for near-real-time application and provides information on estimation uncertainty. However, it has only limited capability to deal with different types of model errors, and necessary linearization approximations can lead to unstable solutions. The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), while it can be computationally demanding (depending on the size of the ensemble) is well suited for near-real-time applications without any need for linearization, is robust, very flexible and easy to use, and is able to accommodate a wide range

**Directinsertion**.Oneofthe earliest andmost simplistic approaches todata assimilationisdirect insertion. As the name suggests, the forecast model states are directly replaced with the observations by assuming that **K** = **I**, the unity matrix. This approach makes the explicit assumption that the model is wrong (has no useful information) and that the observations are right, which both disregards important information provided by the model and preserves observational errors. The risk of this approach is that unbalanced state estimates may result, which causes model shocks: the model will attempt to restore the dynamic balance that would haveexistedwithoutinsertion.Afurtherkeydisadvantageofthisapproachisthatmodelphysics are solely relied upon to propagate the information to unobserved parts of the system [9,10]. **Statistical correction**. A derivative of the direct insertion approach is the statistical correction approach, which adjusts the mean and variance of the model states to match those of the observations. This approach assumes the model pattern is correct but contains a non-uniform bias. First, the predicted observations are scaled by the ratio of observational field standard deviation to predicted field standard deviation. Second, the scaled predicted observational field is given a block shift by the difference between the means of the predicted observational field and the observational field [9]. This approach also relies upon the model physics to

**Successive correction**. The successive corrections method (SCM) [5,11-13] is also known as observation nudging. The scheme begins with an *a priori* state estimate (background field) for an individual (scalar) variable, which is successively adjusted by nearby observations in a series of scans (iterations, *n*) through the data. The advantage of this method lies in its simplicity. However, in case of observational error or different sources (and accuracies) of observations, this scheme is not a good option for assimilation, since information on the observational accuracy is not accounted for. Mostly, this approach assumes that the observa‐

al, 3D-Var; and (viii) Kalman filter and variants [7].

propagate the information to unobserved parts of the system.

of model error descriptions.

**Analysis correction**. This is a modification to the successive correction approach that is applied consecutively to each observation [14]. In practice, the observation update is mostly neglected and further assumptions make the update equation equivalent to that for optimal interpola‐ tion [15].

**Nudging**. Nudging or Newtonian relaxation consists of adding a term to the prognostic model equations that causes the solution to be gradually relaxed towards the observations. Nudging is very similar to the successive corrections technique and only differs in the fact that through the numerical model the time dimension is included. Two distinct approaches have been developed [16]. In analysis nudging, the nudging term for a given variable is proportional to the difference between the model simulation at a given grid point and an "analysis" of observations (*i.e.*, processed observations) calculated at the corresponding grid point. For observation nudging, the difference between the model simulation and the observed state is calculated at the observation locations.

**Optimal interpolation** The optimal interpolation (OI) approach, sometimes referred to as statistical interpolation, is a minimum variance method that is closely related to kriging. OI approximates the "optimal" solution often with a "fixed" structure for all time steps, given by prescribed variances and a correlation function determined only by distance [17]. Sometimes, the variances are allowed to evolve in time, while keeping the correlation structure timeinvariant.

**3-D variational**. This approach directly solves the iterative minimization problem given [18]. The same approximation for the background covariance matrix as in the optimal interpolation approach is typically used.

**Kalman filter**. The optimal analysis state estimate for linear or linearized systems (Kalman or Extended Kalman filter, EKF) can be found through a linear update equation with a Kalman gain that aims at minimizing the analysis error (co)variance of the analysis state estimate [19]. The essential feature which distinguishes the family of Kalman filter approaches from more static techniques, like optimal interpolation, is the dynamic updating of the forecast (back‐ ground) error covariance through time. In the traditional Kalman filter (KF) approach this is achieved by application of standard error propagation theory, using a (tangent) linear model. (The only difference between the Kalman filter and the Extended Kalman filter is that the forecast model is linearized using a Taylor series expansion in the latter; the same forecast and update equations are used for each approach.)

A further approach to estimating the state covariance matrix is the Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF).As thename suggests,the covariances are calculatedfromanensembleof state forecasts using the Monte Carlo approach rather than a single discrete forecast of covariances [20].

#### **3.2. Dynamic observer assimilation**

The dynamic observer techniques find the best fit between the forecast model state and the observations, subject to the initial state vector uncertainty and observation uncertainty, by minimizing over space and time an objective or penalty function, including a background and observation penalty term. To minimize the objective function over time, an assimilation time "window" is defined and an "adjoint" model is typically used to find the derivatives of the objective function with respect to the initial model state vector. The adjoint is a mathematical operator that allows one to determine the sensitivity of the objective function to changes in the solution of the state equations by a single forward and backward pass over the assimilation window. While an adjoint is not strictly required (*i.e.*, a number of forward passes can be used tonumericallyapproximatetheobjectivefunctionderivativeswithrespecttoeachstate),itmakes the problem computationally tractable. The dynamic observer techniques can be considered simply as an optimization or calibration problem, where the state vector – not the model parameters – at the beginning of each assimilation window is "calibrated" to the observations over that time period. The dynamic observer techniques can be formulated with: (i) strong constraint (variational); (ii) weak constraint (dual variational or representer methods).

(maximum *a posteriori* probability) estimate, while for the Kalman filter the conditional mean

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Hybrid assimilation methods have been explored in which a sequential method is used to produce the *a priori* state error or background error covariance for variational assimilation [7].

**4. Review of current data assimilation applications in disaster management**

During the last three decades, data assimilation has gradually reached a mature center stage position at operational numerical weather prediction centers, and are largely responsible for the significant advances in weather forecast accuracy [21]. Improved weather forecasts are critical for better informing the public and decision makers about impending severe weather events such as tropical storms, tornados, frozen precipitation events, wind hazards, droughts,

The basis for improved weather prediction using data assimilation is to improve the initial state, which results in an improved forecast. Initial work was based on hand interpolations that combined present and past observations with model results [22-24]. This tedious proce‐

Currently, data assimilation is available and implemented worldwide at operational numerical weather prediction centers. The impact of adopting data assimilation in numerical weather prediction was qualified as a substantial, resulting in an improvement in NWP quality and accuracy [28]. Combined with improvement in error specifications and with a large increase

The development of the global positioning system (GPS) satellites has facilitated the use of radio occultation (RO) techniques for sounding the earth's atmosphere. RO is a remote sensing technique that relies on the detection of a change or refraction in a radio signal as it passes through the atmosphere. The degree of refraction depends on the gradients of density and the water vapor. These global measurements are actually commensurable with radiosonde soundings in accuracy [30]. Assimilations of the RO retrieved data have exhibited promising

The impact of GPS radio occultation data assimilation on severe weather predictions was demonstrated in East Asia [33]. These observations were assimilated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model's using a three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimi‐ lation system to improve the initial analysis of the model. The GPS RO data assimilation may improve prediction of severe weather such as typhoons. These positive impacts are seen not only in typhoon track prediction but also in prediction of local heavy rainfall associated with severe weather over Taiwan. From a successive evaluation of skill scores for real-time forecasts on frontal systems operationally conducted over a longer period and predictions of six typhoons in 2008, assimilation of GPS RO data appears to have some positive impact on regional weather predictions, on top of existent assimilation with all other observations.

dure was replaced by automatic objective analysis [12, 25-27].

impact on regional as well as global weather predictions [31,32].

in a variety of observations has led to improvements in NWP accuracy [29].

(minimum variance) estimate is sought.

**4.1. Weather forecasting**

and flooding.

Dynamic observer methods are well suited for smoothing problems, but provide information on estimation accuracy only at considerable computational cost. Moreover, adjoints are not available for many existing environmental models, and the development of robust adjoint models is difficult due to the non-linear nature of environmental processes.

**4D-Var**. In its pure form, the 4-D (3-D in space, 1-D in time) "variational" (otherwise known as Gauss-Markov) dynamic observer assimilation methods use an adjoint to efficiently compute the derivatives of the objective function with respect to each of the initial state vector values. Solution to the variational problem is then achieved by minimization and iteration. In practical applications the number of iterations is usually constrained to a small number.

Given a model integration with finite time interval, and assuming a perfect model, 4D-Var and the Kalman filter yield the same result at the end of the assimilation time interval. Inside the time interval, 4D-Var is more optimal, because it uses all observations at once (before and after the time step of analysis), *i.e.*, it is a smoother. A disadvantage of sequential methods is the discontinuity in the corrections, which causes model shocks. Through variational methods, there is a larger potential for dynamically based balanced analyses, which will always be situated within the model climatology. Operational 4D-Var assumes a perfect model: no model error can be included. With the inclusion of model error, coupled equations are to be solved for minimization. Through Kalman filtering it is in general simpler to account for model error.

Both the Kalman filter and 3D/4D-Var rely on the validity of the linearity assumption. Adjoints depend on this assumption and incremental 4D-Var is even more sensitive to linearity. Uncertainty estimates via the Hessian are critically dependent on a valid linearization. Furthermore, with variational assimilation it is more difficult to obtain an estimate of the quality of the analysis or of the state's uncertainty after updating. In the framework of estimation theory, the goal of variational assimilation is the estimation of the conditional mode (maximum *a posteriori* probability) estimate, while for the Kalman filter the conditional mean (minimum variance) estimate is sought.

Hybrid assimilation methods have been explored in which a sequential method is used to produce the *a priori* state error or background error covariance for variational assimilation [7].

#### **4. Review of current data assimilation applications in disaster management**

#### **4.1. Weather forecasting**

**3.2. Dynamic observer assimilation**

The dynamic observer techniques find the best fit between the forecast model state and the observations, subject to the initial state vector uncertainty and observation uncertainty, by minimizing over space and time an objective or penalty function, including a background and observation penalty term. To minimize the objective function over time, an assimilation time "window" is defined and an "adjoint" model is typically used to find the derivatives of the objective function with respect to the initial model state vector. The adjoint is a mathematical operator that allows one to determine the sensitivity of the objective function to changes in the solution of the state equations by a single forward and backward pass over the assimilation window. While an adjoint is not strictly required (*i.e.*, a number of forward passes can be used tonumericallyapproximatetheobjectivefunctionderivativeswithrespecttoeachstate),itmakes the problem computationally tractable. The dynamic observer techniques can be considered simply as an optimization or calibration problem, where the state vector – not the model parameters – at the beginning of each assimilation window is "calibrated" to the observations over that time period. The dynamic observer techniques can be formulated with: (i) strong

90 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

constraint (variational); (ii) weak constraint (dual variational or representer methods).

models is difficult due to the non-linear nature of environmental processes.

Dynamic observer methods are well suited for smoothing problems, but provide information on estimation accuracy only at considerable computational cost. Moreover, adjoints are not available for many existing environmental models, and the development of robust adjoint

**4D-Var**. In its pure form, the 4-D (3-D in space, 1-D in time) "variational" (otherwise known as Gauss-Markov) dynamic observer assimilation methods use an adjoint to efficiently compute the derivatives of the objective function with respect to each of the initial state vector values. Solution to the variational problem is then achieved by minimization and iteration. In practical applications the number of iterations is usually constrained to a small number.

Given a model integration with finite time interval, and assuming a perfect model, 4D-Var and the Kalman filter yield the same result at the end of the assimilation time interval. Inside the time interval, 4D-Var is more optimal, because it uses all observations at once (before and after the time step of analysis), *i.e.*, it is a smoother. A disadvantage of sequential methods is the discontinuity in the corrections, which causes model shocks. Through variational methods, there is a larger potential for dynamically based balanced analyses, which will always be situated within the model climatology. Operational 4D-Var assumes a perfect model: no model error can be included. With the inclusion of model error, coupled equations are to be solved for minimization. Through Kalman filtering it is in general simpler to account for model error.

Both the Kalman filter and 3D/4D-Var rely on the validity of the linearity assumption. Adjoints depend on this assumption and incremental 4D-Var is even more sensitive to linearity. Uncertainty estimates via the Hessian are critically dependent on a valid linearization. Furthermore, with variational assimilation it is more difficult to obtain an estimate of the quality of the analysis or of the state's uncertainty after updating. In the framework of estimation theory, the goal of variational assimilation is the estimation of the conditional mode During the last three decades, data assimilation has gradually reached a mature center stage position at operational numerical weather prediction centers, and are largely responsible for the significant advances in weather forecast accuracy [21]. Improved weather forecasts are critical for better informing the public and decision makers about impending severe weather events such as tropical storms, tornados, frozen precipitation events, wind hazards, droughts, and flooding.

The basis for improved weather prediction using data assimilation is to improve the initial state, which results in an improved forecast. Initial work was based on hand interpolations that combined present and past observations with model results [22-24]. This tedious proce‐ dure was replaced by automatic objective analysis [12, 25-27].

Currently, data assimilation is available and implemented worldwide at operational numerical weather prediction centers. The impact of adopting data assimilation in numerical weather prediction was qualified as a substantial, resulting in an improvement in NWP quality and accuracy [28]. Combined with improvement in error specifications and with a large increase in a variety of observations has led to improvements in NWP accuracy [29].

The development of the global positioning system (GPS) satellites has facilitated the use of radio occultation (RO) techniques for sounding the earth's atmosphere. RO is a remote sensing technique that relies on the detection of a change or refraction in a radio signal as it passes through the atmosphere. The degree of refraction depends on the gradients of density and the water vapor. These global measurements are actually commensurable with radiosonde soundings in accuracy [30]. Assimilations of the RO retrieved data have exhibited promising impact on regional as well as global weather predictions [31,32].

The impact of GPS radio occultation data assimilation on severe weather predictions was demonstrated in East Asia [33]. These observations were assimilated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model's using a three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimi‐ lation system to improve the initial analysis of the model. The GPS RO data assimilation may improve prediction of severe weather such as typhoons. These positive impacts are seen not only in typhoon track prediction but also in prediction of local heavy rainfall associated with severe weather over Taiwan. From a successive evaluation of skill scores for real-time forecasts on frontal systems operationally conducted over a longer period and predictions of six typhoons in 2008, assimilation of GPS RO data appears to have some positive impact on regional weather predictions, on top of existent assimilation with all other observations.

day forecasts for river levels, river flows, and reservoir and lake levels. Forecasts can be extended further using weather forecasts, and can include snowmelt processes and river

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Hydrologic rainfall-runoff models are used to estimate river flows from rainfall observations and forecasts. These models may take into account local catchment topography, soils, vegeta‐ tion, temperature, river flow hydrodynamics, and structure operations and backwater effects. These models are enhanced using data assimilation methods such as error prediction, state updating, and parameter updating techniques. Forecast uncertainties can arise and propagate through the modeling network from errors in model parameters, initial conditions, boundary

As part of the European Union near real time flood forecasting, warning and management "FloodMan" project data-assimilation techniques were developed, demonstrated and validat‐ ed for integrated hydrological and hydraulic models in a pilot study of the Rhine River [34]. The model combines a hydraulic model (SOBEK) representing the Rhine River between Andernach and Düsseldorf with a hydrological model (HBV) for the Sieg tributary. To increase the accuracy of flood forecasts, data assimilation is applied, using measured water levels at Bonn and Cologne to adapt bed roughness and lateral discharges until the calculated water

The data-assimilation technique computes model corrections based on the assumption that the uncertainties in model output and observations are known and are normally distributed. The data-assimilation algorithm compares the observed value with the calculated value, and makes corrections to the parameters. The changes are made taking into consideration the uncertainty of the parameters and measured data. For example, a mean water level measurement is accurate compared to calculated water levels. Therefore the water level calculated with dataassimilation will be closer to the measured water level than the calculated without data-

The data-assimilation algorithm is applied to the flood of December 1993 (Figure 5). The dataassimilation improves the water level forecast. The small differences between forecast and measured data are due to the perfect forecast for the input at Andernach. The adaptations by the data-assimilation on the model parameters were small indication a well calibrated

Droughts are environmental disasters that occur in virtually all climates, and are generally related to reduced precipitation for an extended period of time. High temperature, high wind, low humidity; rainfall timing, intensity and duration, also play a significant role in droughts [35]. Aridity is a permanent feature of climate related to low rainfall areas [36], while drought is a temporary anomaly, lasting from months to several years. Population growth, agricultural and industrial expansion, energy demands for water, climate change, and water contamination

hydraulic model for 1993 flood and that robust data assimilation procedure.

further amplify the effects of drought and water scarcity.

control operations.

assimilation.

**4.3. Drought management**

conditions, data inputs and model physics.

levels agree with the measured water levels.

**Figure 4.** The best track from JTWC (black line) for Cyclone Gonu (2007) and simulated tracks for experiments CTL and GPS without and with the RO data assimilated, respectively, and other experiments with different data, GTS (radio‐ sondes), SSMI (SSM/I retrieved oceanic near-surface wind speed OWS and integrated precipitable water PW, denoted as OWSA an IWVA, respectively), bogus vortex 1 (large vortex) and bogus vortex2 (small vortex) [33].

TheimpactofGPSROassimilationonTropicalCycloneGonu(2007)wasstudiedoverthewestern IndianOcean[33].Gonu was one ofthemostintense inregionalhistory andhadasevere impact. Thepositive impactofGPSROdataontrackpredictionis clearlyseeninFigure4.Itis surprising‐ ly found that assimilations with all other data (including SSM/I, GTS and their combinations) do not outperform the run with GTS+GPS or even the run with GPS RO data only.

#### **4.2. Flood management: early warning, monitoring, and damage assessments**

Flood forecasting using numerical models and data assimilation techniques provides extend‐ ed lead-time and improved accuracy for flood information useful for residents, local authori‐ ties and emergency services. The use of data assimilation in operational hydrologic forecasting predates its use in weather forecasting and oceanography. Examples include updating of snow modelstatesandtheuseofobservedstreamflowtomakeshort-termadjustmentstothesimulated streamflow. However, despite its early adoption, more advanced methods of data assimila‐ tion (i.e. Kalman filtering) has yet to take firm root in operational hydrologic forecasting.

Operational hydrologic data assimilation typically uses telemetered, near real-time measure‐ ments of river levels and flows, and raingauge or Doppler radar precipitation estimates as inputs to a computer-based flood forecasting system. Model outputs include minute to several day forecasts for river levels, river flows, and reservoir and lake levels. Forecasts can be extended further using weather forecasts, and can include snowmelt processes and river control operations.

Hydrologic rainfall-runoff models are used to estimate river flows from rainfall observations and forecasts. These models may take into account local catchment topography, soils, vegeta‐ tion, temperature, river flow hydrodynamics, and structure operations and backwater effects. These models are enhanced using data assimilation methods such as error prediction, state updating, and parameter updating techniques. Forecast uncertainties can arise and propagate through the modeling network from errors in model parameters, initial conditions, boundary conditions, data inputs and model physics.

As part of the European Union near real time flood forecasting, warning and management "FloodMan" project data-assimilation techniques were developed, demonstrated and validat‐ ed for integrated hydrological and hydraulic models in a pilot study of the Rhine River [34]. The model combines a hydraulic model (SOBEK) representing the Rhine River between Andernach and Düsseldorf with a hydrological model (HBV) for the Sieg tributary. To increase the accuracy of flood forecasts, data assimilation is applied, using measured water levels at Bonn and Cologne to adapt bed roughness and lateral discharges until the calculated water levels agree with the measured water levels.

The data-assimilation technique computes model corrections based on the assumption that the uncertainties in model output and observations are known and are normally distributed. The data-assimilation algorithm compares the observed value with the calculated value, and makes corrections to the parameters. The changes are made taking into consideration the uncertainty of the parameters and measured data. For example, a mean water level measurement is accurate compared to calculated water levels. Therefore the water level calculated with dataassimilation will be closer to the measured water level than the calculated without dataassimilation.

The data-assimilation algorithm is applied to the flood of December 1993 (Figure 5). The dataassimilation improves the water level forecast. The small differences between forecast and measured data are due to the perfect forecast for the input at Andernach. The adaptations by the data-assimilation on the model parameters were small indication a well calibrated hydraulic model for 1993 flood and that robust data assimilation procedure.

#### **4.3. Drought management**

TheimpactofGPSROassimilationonTropicalCycloneGonu(2007)wasstudiedoverthewestern IndianOcean[33].Gonu was one ofthemostintense inregionalhistory andhadasevere impact. Thepositive impactofGPSROdataontrackpredictionis clearlyseeninFigure4.Itis surprising‐ ly found that assimilations with all other data (including SSM/I, GTS and their combinations)

**Figure 4.** The best track from JTWC (black line) for Cyclone Gonu (2007) and simulated tracks for experiments CTL and GPS without and with the RO data assimilated, respectively, and other experiments with different data, GTS (radio‐ sondes), SSMI (SSM/I retrieved oceanic near-surface wind speed OWS and integrated precipitable water PW, denoted

Flood forecasting using numerical models and data assimilation techniques provides extend‐ ed lead-time and improved accuracy for flood information useful for residents, local authori‐ ties and emergency services. The use of data assimilation in operational hydrologic forecasting predates its use in weather forecasting and oceanography. Examples include updating of snow modelstatesandtheuseofobservedstreamflowtomakeshort-termadjustmentstothesimulated streamflow. However, despite its early adoption, more advanced methods of data assimila‐ tion (i.e. Kalman filtering) has yet to take firm root in operational hydrologic forecasting.

Operational hydrologic data assimilation typically uses telemetered, near real-time measure‐ ments of river levels and flows, and raingauge or Doppler radar precipitation estimates as inputs to a computer-based flood forecasting system. Model outputs include minute to several

do not outperform the run with GTS+GPS or even the run with GPS RO data only.

as OWSA an IWVA, respectively), bogus vortex 1 (large vortex) and bogus vortex2 (small vortex) [33].

92 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

**4.2. Flood management: early warning, monitoring, and damage assessments**

Droughts are environmental disasters that occur in virtually all climates, and are generally related to reduced precipitation for an extended period of time. High temperature, high wind, low humidity; rainfall timing, intensity and duration, also play a significant role in droughts [35]. Aridity is a permanent feature of climate related to low rainfall areas [36], while drought is a temporary anomaly, lasting from months to several years. Population growth, agricultural and industrial expansion, energy demands for water, climate change, and water contamination further amplify the effects of drought and water scarcity.

**Figure 5.** Streamflow forecasts using data assimilation. The blue line depicts the difference between forecast and measured water levels without data-assimilation, the red line the differences with data-assimilation [34].

Droughts impact both surface and groundwater, leading to reduced water supply and quality, crop failure, reduced livestock range, reduced power supply, disturbed riparian habitat, and deferred recreation [37]. Therefore, droughts are of great importance in the planning and management of water resources.

Droughts rank first among all natural hazards when measured in terms of the number of people affected [38]. Hazard events were ranked based on the degree of severity, the length of event, total areal extent, total loss of life, total economic loss, social effect, long-term impact, suddenness, and occurrence of associated hazards [39]. It was found that drought stood first based on most of the hazard characteristics. Other natural hazards, which followed droughts in terms of their rank, are tropical cyclones, regional floods, earthquakes, and volcanoes.

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, launched in 2002 measures monthly changes in total water storage over large areas, which can help to assess change in water supply on and beneath the land surface. However, the coarse spatial and temporal resolutions of GRACE, and its lack of information on the vertical distribution of the observed mass changes limits its utility unless it is combined with other sources of information. In order to increase the resolution, eliminate the time lag, and isolate groundwater and other components from total terrestrial water storage, the GRACE data was integrated with other ground- and space-based meteorological observations (precipitation, solar radiation, etc.) within the Catchment Land Surface Model, using Ensemble Kalman smoother type data assimilation [40]. The resulting fields of soil moisture and groundwater storage variations are then used to generate drought indicators based on the cumulative distribution function of wetness conditions during 1948-2009 simulated by the Catchment model [41] (Figure 6).

**Figure 6.** GRACE data assimilation based drought indicators for surface (top) and root zone (middle) soil moisture and groundwater (bottom) for 26 December 2011, expressed as percentiles relative to conditions during the 1948-2011

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simulated record [41].

Droughts impact both surface and groundwater, leading to reduced water supply and quality, crop failure, reduced livestock range, reduced power supply, disturbed riparian habitat, and deferred recreation [37]. Therefore, droughts are of great importance in the planning and

**Figure 5.** Streamflow forecasts using data assimilation. The blue line depicts the difference between forecast and

measured water levels without data-assimilation, the red line the differences with data-assimilation [34].

94 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Droughts rank first among all natural hazards when measured in terms of the number of people affected [38]. Hazard events were ranked based on the degree of severity, the length of event, total areal extent, total loss of life, total economic loss, social effect, long-term impact, suddenness, and occurrence of associated hazards [39]. It was found that drought stood first based on most of the hazard characteristics. Other natural hazards, which followed droughts in terms of their rank, are tropical cyclones, regional floods, earthquakes, and volcanoes.

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, launched in 2002 measures monthly changes in total water storage over large areas, which can help to assess change in water supply on and beneath the land surface. However, the coarse spatial and temporal resolutions of GRACE, and its lack of information on the vertical distribution of the observed mass changes limits its utility unless it is combined with other sources of information. In order to increase the resolution, eliminate the time lag, and isolate groundwater and other components from total terrestrial water storage, the GRACE data was integrated with other ground- and space-based meteorological observations (precipitation, solar radiation, etc.) within the Catchment Land Surface Model, using Ensemble Kalman smoother type data assimilation [40]. The resulting fields of soil moisture and groundwater storage variations are then used to generate drought indicators based on the cumulative distribution function of wetness conditions during 1948-2009 simulated by the Catchment model [41] (Figure 6).

management of water resources.

**Figure 6.** GRACE data assimilation based drought indicators for surface (top) and root zone (middle) soil moisture and groundwater (bottom) for 26 December 2011, expressed as percentiles relative to conditions during the 1948-2011 simulated record [41].

There are several aquifers in the U.S. that have been depleted in that way over the past century, such as the southern half of the High Plains aquifer in the central U.S. If the groundwater drought indicator map accounted for human-induced depletion, such regions would be red all the time, which would not be useful for evaluating current wetness conditions relative to previous conditions. On time scales of weeks to ten years, we expect that these maps will be reasonably well correlated with measured water table variations over spatial scales of 25 km (16 miles) or more. However, users should not assume a direct correspondence between these groundwater percentiles and measured groundwater levels over multiple decades. The colorcoded maps show how much water is stored now as a probability of occurrence in the record from 1948 to the present.

external dose rates, concentrations in water bodies). The predictions will not exactly reflect the situation after an accident, as the models use a number of assumptions that are appropriate to the average situation across large areas of Europe, rather than to the particular conditions of the area affected by the accident. In the period immediately after the accident there will be a limited amount of information available from monitoring programs. To make the best use of this information, it is necessary to correct the RODOS predictions in light of the available

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A 2 km RODOS test case was generated with a release point at Risø, Denmark, and 23 detector points surrounding Risø (Figure 7,8). The meteorological situation was a 7m/s westerly wind

**Figure 7.** Gamma dose field from puffs in measurement generating run. The 15 detector points 10 to 50 km east of the release point are seen as black squares, the 8 points surrounding the release point are not marked. The back‐

In general, in off-site emergency management, data assimilation will prove useful throughout the different stages of the accident. In the assessment of the consequences during the early phase, in the improvement of prior assumptions based solely on expert judgement, and when there is a clear need for longer-term predictions to assess the radiological impact on the food

A tsunami is a series of waves that can move on shore rapidly, but last for several hours and flood coastal communities with little warning. Tsunamis can be triggered by a variety of geological processes such as earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, or meteorite impacts. Throughout history, Tsunami's have taken many lives in coastal regions around the world. In

at 60 m above ground with neutral stability, and no rain.

measurements.

ground picture is the land use map [42].

**4.5. Tsunami warnings and forecasts**

chain.

#### **4.4. Radiation guidance and monitoring**

Decision makers must have the information needed to react in a rapid and appropriate manner before, during and immediately after an accidental or intentional contamination of the environment. Decision support systems are needed to estimate the likely evolution of the environmental contamination. The primary goal is to determine the area likely to be affected by a possible release and to obtain an estimate of the potential maximum environmental consequences. In the early phases of an accident the main goal is to provide a forecast of the magnitude and geographical coverage of the potential environmental consequences. It is important to know the prevailing and forecasted meteorological conditions in the local area. Also the status of the source should be known in detail. Depending on the meteorological situation and the model used, trajectories may be calculated first to give a rough estimation of the plume transport.

Dispersion models driven with weather data and best-estimate source information can be used. When results of radiological measurements are available they can be used to improve model calculations by data assimilation. Atmospheric dispersion modeling of radioactive material in radiological risk assessment and emergency response has evolved significantly over the past 50 years. The three types of dispersion models are the Gaussian plume, Lagrangian-puff and particle random walk, and computational fluid dynamic models. When data from radiological measurements are available, they should be taken into account in the consequence assessment and used to correct and update model calculation results (data assimilation). Because obser‐ vations are often sparse in emergency situations, data assimilation procedures should be designed to handle cases with only a few measurements. Even simple dispersion models would benefit from data assimilation, and may also run faster to provide critical time-sensitive information to decision makers [42].

Rojas-Palma et al., (2005) describe an in-depth effort to integrate a suite of computer codes, with different degrees of complexity, into a European real-time, on-line decision support system for off-site management of nuclear emergencies (the RODOS system) [42]. The resulting modeling system describes the transport and dispersion of radionuclides in both atmospheric and aquatic systems, as well as their impact on the food chain.

RODOS predicts the values of many quantities that are likely to be of interest to decision makers after an accident (e.g. activity concentration in air, deposition, concentration in foods, external dose rates, concentrations in water bodies). The predictions will not exactly reflect the situation after an accident, as the models use a number of assumptions that are appropriate to the average situation across large areas of Europe, rather than to the particular conditions of the area affected by the accident. In the period immediately after the accident there will be a limited amount of information available from monitoring programs. To make the best use of this information, it is necessary to correct the RODOS predictions in light of the available measurements.

A 2 km RODOS test case was generated with a release point at Risø, Denmark, and 23 detector points surrounding Risø (Figure 7,8). The meteorological situation was a 7m/s westerly wind at 60 m above ground with neutral stability, and no rain.

**Figure 7.** Gamma dose field from puffs in measurement generating run. The 15 detector points 10 to 50 km east of the release point are seen as black squares, the 8 points surrounding the release point are not marked. The back‐ ground picture is the land use map [42].

In general, in off-site emergency management, data assimilation will prove useful throughout the different stages of the accident. In the assessment of the consequences during the early phase, in the improvement of prior assumptions based solely on expert judgement, and when there is a clear need for longer-term predictions to assess the radiological impact on the food chain.

#### **4.5. Tsunami warnings and forecasts**

There are several aquifers in the U.S. that have been depleted in that way over the past century, such as the southern half of the High Plains aquifer in the central U.S. If the groundwater drought indicator map accounted for human-induced depletion, such regions would be red all the time, which would not be useful for evaluating current wetness conditions relative to previous conditions. On time scales of weeks to ten years, we expect that these maps will be reasonably well correlated with measured water table variations over spatial scales of 25 km (16 miles) or more. However, users should not assume a direct correspondence between these groundwater percentiles and measured groundwater levels over multiple decades. The colorcoded maps show how much water is stored now as a probability of occurrence in the record

96 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Decision makers must have the information needed to react in a rapid and appropriate manner before, during and immediately after an accidental or intentional contamination of the environment. Decision support systems are needed to estimate the likely evolution of the environmental contamination. The primary goal is to determine the area likely to be affected by a possible release and to obtain an estimate of the potential maximum environmental consequences. In the early phases of an accident the main goal is to provide a forecast of the magnitude and geographical coverage of the potential environmental consequences. It is important to know the prevailing and forecasted meteorological conditions in the local area. Also the status of the source should be known in detail. Depending on the meteorological situation and the model used, trajectories may be calculated first to give a rough estimation of

Dispersion models driven with weather data and best-estimate source information can be used. When results of radiological measurements are available they can be used to improve model calculations by data assimilation. Atmospheric dispersion modeling of radioactive material in radiological risk assessment and emergency response has evolved significantly over the past 50 years. The three types of dispersion models are the Gaussian plume, Lagrangian-puff and particle random walk, and computational fluid dynamic models. When data from radiological measurements are available, they should be taken into account in the consequence assessment and used to correct and update model calculation results (data assimilation). Because obser‐ vations are often sparse in emergency situations, data assimilation procedures should be designed to handle cases with only a few measurements. Even simple dispersion models would benefit from data assimilation, and may also run faster to provide critical time-sensitive

Rojas-Palma et al., (2005) describe an in-depth effort to integrate a suite of computer codes, with different degrees of complexity, into a European real-time, on-line decision support system for off-site management of nuclear emergencies (the RODOS system) [42]. The resulting modeling system describes the transport and dispersion of radionuclides in both atmospheric

RODOS predicts the values of many quantities that are likely to be of interest to decision makers after an accident (e.g. activity concentration in air, deposition, concentration in foods,

from 1948 to the present.

the plume transport.

information to decision makers [42].

and aquatic systems, as well as their impact on the food chain.

**4.4. Radiation guidance and monitoring**

A tsunami is a series of waves that can move on shore rapidly, but last for several hours and flood coastal communities with little warning. Tsunamis can be triggered by a variety of geological processes such as earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, or meteorite impacts. Throughout history, Tsunami's have taken many lives in coastal regions around the world. In

especially in deep water. Numerical model accuracy is inherently limited by errors in bathyme‐ try and topography and uncertainties in the generating mechanism. But combined, these techniques can provide reliable tsunami forecasts, as is demonstrated in the Short-term Inundation Forecasting (SIFT) system. The Method of Splitting Tsunamis (MOST) numerical model is run in two steps or modes. In the data assimilation mode, the model is adjusted "onthe-fly" by a real-time data stream to provide the best fit to the data. In the forecast mode, the model uses the simulation scenario obtained in the first step and extends the simulation to locations where measured data is not available, providing the forecast. An effective implemen‐ tation of the inversion is achieved by using a discrete set of Green's functions to form a model source. The algorithm chooses the best fit to a given tsunameter data among a limited number of unit solution combinations by direct sorting, using a choice of misfit functions (Figure 9).

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**Figure 9.** Results of MOST data assimilation for 1996 Anderanov Island tsunami [45]. Top frame shows the source in‐ ferred by the data assimilation (black rectangles show unit sources' fault plains), maximum computed amplitudes of tsunami from this source (filled colored contours), travel time contours in hours after earthquake (solid lines), and lo‐ cations of the bottom pressure recorders. Bottom frame shows a reference map (left) and comparison of the model

This chapter provided an overview of data assimilation theory and its application to decision support tools, and provided 5 examples of operational data assimilation applications in

(blue) and bottom pressure recorder data (magenta).

**5. Conclusions**

**Figure 8.** Gamma dose rates 50 km from the release point, right below the plume. Kalman filtering applied in runs with the release doubled and halved relative to that having generated the "measurements", and with different release rate uncertainties "a" [42].

the wake of the catastrophic 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which caused over 200,000 deaths and widespread destruction, many governmental organizations have increased their efforts to diminish the potential impacts of a tsunami by strengthening tsunami detection, warning, education and preparedness efforts [43].

In contrast to forecasting other natural hazards such as hurricanes or floods, near-real-time tsunami forecast models must produce predictions after a seismic event has been detected, but before the event arrive at the coast. These forecasts provide emergency managers near-realtime information about the time of first impact as well as the sizes and duration of the tsunami waves, and give an estimate of the area of inundation. The entire forecasting process has to be completed very quickly, to allow time for evacuation efforts. The entire forecast, including data acquisition, data assimilation and inundation projections, must take place within a few hours [44].

Titov et al., (2003) presented a method for tsunami forecasting that combining real-time data from tsunameters with numerical model estimates to provide site- and event-specific fore‐ casts for tsunamis in real time [45]. Observational networks will never be sufficiently dense becausetheoceanisvast.Establishingandmaintainingmonitoringstationsiscostlyanddifficult, especially in deep water. Numerical model accuracy is inherently limited by errors in bathyme‐ try and topography and uncertainties in the generating mechanism. But combined, these techniques can provide reliable tsunami forecasts, as is demonstrated in the Short-term Inundation Forecasting (SIFT) system. The Method of Splitting Tsunamis (MOST) numerical model is run in two steps or modes. In the data assimilation mode, the model is adjusted "onthe-fly" by a real-time data stream to provide the best fit to the data. In the forecast mode, the model uses the simulation scenario obtained in the first step and extends the simulation to locations where measured data is not available, providing the forecast. An effective implemen‐ tation of the inversion is achieved by using a discrete set of Green's functions to form a model source. The algorithm chooses the best fit to a given tsunameter data among a limited number of unit solution combinations by direct sorting, using a choice of misfit functions (Figure 9).

**Figure 9.** Results of MOST data assimilation for 1996 Anderanov Island tsunami [45]. Top frame shows the source in‐ ferred by the data assimilation (black rectangles show unit sources' fault plains), maximum computed amplitudes of tsunami from this source (filled colored contours), travel time contours in hours after earthquake (solid lines), and lo‐ cations of the bottom pressure recorders. Bottom frame shows a reference map (left) and comparison of the model (blue) and bottom pressure recorder data (magenta).

#### **5. Conclusions**

the wake of the catastrophic 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which caused over 200,000 deaths and widespread destruction, many governmental organizations have increased their efforts to diminish the potential impacts of a tsunami by strengthening tsunami detection, warning,

**Figure 8.** Gamma dose rates 50 km from the release point, right below the plume. Kalman filtering applied in runs with the release doubled and halved relative to that having generated the "measurements", and with different release

98 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

In contrast to forecasting other natural hazards such as hurricanes or floods, near-real-time tsunami forecast models must produce predictions after a seismic event has been detected, but before the event arrive at the coast. These forecasts provide emergency managers near-realtime information about the time of first impact as well as the sizes and duration of the tsunami waves, and give an estimate of the area of inundation. The entire forecasting process has to be completed very quickly, to allow time for evacuation efforts. The entire forecast, including data acquisition, data assimilation and inundation projections, must take place within a few

Titov et al., (2003) presented a method for tsunami forecasting that combining real-time data from tsunameters with numerical model estimates to provide site- and event-specific fore‐ casts for tsunamis in real time [45]. Observational networks will never be sufficiently dense becausetheoceanisvast.Establishingandmaintainingmonitoringstationsiscostlyanddifficult,

education and preparedness efforts [43].

rate uncertainties "a" [42].

hours [44].

This chapter provided an overview of data assimilation theory and its application to decision support tools, and provided 5 examples of operational data assimilation applications in disaster management. These included tsunami warning, radiation guidance and monitoring, flood and drought management, and weather forecasting.

[3] Walker, J. P, & Houser, P. R. (2005). Hydrologic Data Assimilation, In: A. Aswatha‐ narayana (Ed.), Advances in Water Science Methodologies, A.A. Balkema, TheNe‐

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Information about environmental conditions is of critical importance to real-world applica‐ tions disaster management in areas such as agricultural production, water resource manage‐ ment, flood prediction, water supply, weather and climate forecasting, and environmental preservation. This information is usually provided to decision makers through Decision Support Systems (DSS). Observations are important components of DSSs, providing critical information that mitigate the risk of loss of life and damage to property. Environmental process models are used in DSSs to predict the temporal and spatial state variations, but these predictions are often poor, due to model initialization, parameter and forcing, and physics errors. Therefore, we must combine the strengths of environmental models contained within DSSs and observations and minimize the weaknesses to provide a superior environmental state estimate – data assimilation.

Data assimilation merges the spatially comprehensive observations with the dynamically complete but typically poor predictions of an environmental model to yield the best possible system state estimation. Data assimilation aims to utilize both our knowledge of physical processes as embodied in a numerical process model, and information that can be gained from observations, to produce an improved, continuous system state estimate in space and time. When implemented in near-real time, data assimilation can objectively provide decision makers with the timeliest information, as well as provide superior initializations for short term scenario predictions. Data assimilation can also act as a parameter estimation method to help reduce DSS bias and uncertainty.

#### **Author details**

Paul R. Houser\*

Address all correspondence to: phouser@gmu.edu

George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA

#### **References**


[3] Walker, J. P, & Houser, P. R. (2005). Hydrologic Data Assimilation, In: A. Aswatha‐ narayana (Ed.), Advances in Water Science Methodologies, A.A. Balkema, TheNe‐ therlands, 230pp.

disaster management. These included tsunami warning, radiation guidance and monitoring,

100 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Information about environmental conditions is of critical importance to real-world applica‐ tions disaster management in areas such as agricultural production, water resource manage‐ ment, flood prediction, water supply, weather and climate forecasting, and environmental preservation. This information is usually provided to decision makers through Decision Support Systems (DSS). Observations are important components of DSSs, providing critical information that mitigate the risk of loss of life and damage to property. Environmental process models are used in DSSs to predict the temporal and spatial state variations, but these predictions are often poor, due to model initialization, parameter and forcing, and physics errors. Therefore, we must combine the strengths of environmental models contained within DSSs and observations and minimize the weaknesses to provide a superior environmental

Data assimilation merges the spatially comprehensive observations with the dynamically complete but typically poor predictions of an environmental model to yield the best possible system state estimation. Data assimilation aims to utilize both our knowledge of physical processes as embodied in a numerical process model, and information that can be gained from observations, to produce an improved, continuous system state estimate in space and time. When implemented in near-real time, data assimilation can objectively provide decision makers with the timeliest information, as well as provide superior initializations for short term scenario predictions. Data assimilation can also act as a parameter estimation method to help

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flood and drought management, and weather forecasting.

state estimate – data assimilation.

reduce DSS bias and uncertainty.

Address all correspondence to: phouser@gmu.edu

George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA

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Paul R. Houser\*

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**Chapter 5**

**Visualization for Hurricane Storm Surge Risk**

**Awareness and Emergency Communication**

Thomas R. Allen, Stephen Sanchagrin and

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

**1.1. The impetus for hurricane storm surge visualization**

improvements to risk awareness and communication.

Visualizations of storm surge forecasts offer opportunities to improve risk awareness and communication of impending disaster in emergency situations such as a hurricane evacua‐ tion. A continuum of potential visualizations ranges from static maps, animated model out‐ put, to 3-D, immersive, and multimedia. In addition to risk communication for the public high-quality photorealistic geovisualizations might allow managers to investigate and ex‐ plore forecasted surges and could reveal vulnerabilities and improve preparedness and re‐ sponse. Visualization can reveal three-dimensional space-time dynamics and provide insights for practical applications [1,2]. Scientific and visual analytic applications, for exam‐ ple, might include representations of model uncertainty or instability, such as "quality flags" symbolized on the model mesh or grid. With a focus on spatial and specifically "place-based" site and situation, geovisualization encourages analysis for multiple purposes and users, for interpreting spatial patterns, and using new multimedia and communications in a broader, informed way among academics, government managers, and stakeholders [3]. Hence, the challenge is to develop accessible technology that will provide proven and robust

This chapter aims to evaluate existing storm surge models such as Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) and ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) models (described below) in order to identify constraints to their application for risk communication and to ex‐ plore their potential for diverse forms of geovisualization. This chapter reviews some of the physical and computational limitations of surge models, the factors inhibiting spatial repre‐

> © 2013 Allen et al.; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,

© 2013 Allen et al.; licensee InTech. This is a paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

George McLeod

**1. Introduction**

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/53770

### **Visualization for Hurricane Storm Surge Risk Awareness and Emergency Communication**

Thomas R. Allen, Stephen Sanchagrin and George McLeod

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/53770

#### **1. Introduction**

#### **1.1. The impetus for hurricane storm surge visualization**

Visualizations of storm surge forecasts offer opportunities to improve risk awareness and communication of impending disaster in emergency situations such as a hurricane evacua‐ tion. A continuum of potential visualizations ranges from static maps, animated model out‐ put, to 3-D, immersive, and multimedia. In addition to risk communication for the public high-quality photorealistic geovisualizations might allow managers to investigate and ex‐ plore forecasted surges and could reveal vulnerabilities and improve preparedness and re‐ sponse. Visualization can reveal three-dimensional space-time dynamics and provide insights for practical applications [1,2]. Scientific and visual analytic applications, for exam‐ ple, might include representations of model uncertainty or instability, such as "quality flags" symbolized on the model mesh or grid. With a focus on spatial and specifically "place-based" site and situation, geovisualization encourages analysis for multiple purposes and users, for interpreting spatial patterns, and using new multimedia and communications in a broader, informed way among academics, government managers, and stakeholders [3]. Hence, the challenge is to develop accessible technology that will provide proven and robust improvements to risk awareness and communication.

This chapter aims to evaluate existing storm surge models such as Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) and ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) models (described below) in order to identify constraints to their application for risk communication and to ex‐ plore their potential for diverse forms of geovisualization. This chapter reviews some of the physical and computational limitations of surge models, the factors inhibiting spatial repre‐

© 2013 Allen et al.; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2013 Allen et al.; licensee InTech. This is a paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

sentation and visualization, and the applications of and hurdles for GIS post-processing and cartographic analysis and communication. A subset of computational techniques and geovi‐ sualizations are demonstrated that could improve upon the limitations inherent in the status quo approaches to representing surge and inundation model output. Applications and case studies that employ enhanced spatial resolution (down-scaled) grid output, enforcement of hydrologic connectivity in spatial models of inundation, and web-based, interactive cartog‐ raphy (2-D and 3-D) and 3-D, animated, and interactive-immersive geovisualization are de‐ scribed. Enhanced visualizations that provide better "on the ground" resolution of potential flooding events play an increasingly critical role in surge management and response, partic‐ ularly in urban centers with dense population and infrastructure. While storm tracks, inten‐ sity forecasts, and tabular metrics have become ubiquitous, they do little to convey the highly localized effects of potential flooding at municipal or facility scales. The chapter con‐ cludes with a case study, reflects upon the constraints and limitations, and makes sugges‐ tions for avenues of future research.

Single-value water surface models create water surfaces representations based on a single numerical water level value that is draped over a study area. These models are often known as "bathtub" models as they simply raise the water surface evenly and consistently over an entire region. Single-value water surface models may be the best alternative where only one water level observation is available and other modeling techniques are impractical [4]. Static models such as these are also frequently developed as second-tier models that use the out‐ put from modeled water surfaces (SLOSH, ADCIRC) as input parameters. The case study explored later in this chapter makes use of this technique. Single-value models require mini‐ mal modeling expertise and for this reason are often employed by small organizations with limited resources. NOAA suggests that modeled and interpolated surfaces are generally preferred to the single-value method for better accuracy and more realistic depictions [4].

Visualization for Hurricane Storm Surge Risk Awareness and Emergency Communication

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/53770

107

Storm surge models are often developed by coastal modelers who only give secondary con‐ sideration to visualization or the potential for integration into GIS and other decision-sup‐ port systems. There are many advantages to incorporation of such model output into decision-support systems. Other data layers, such as evacuation routes, critical infrastruc‐ ture, and vulnerable populations, can be analyzed in conjunction with the model results. The SLOSH model is the model that most emergency managers use for evacuation decisionmaking as well as for post-landfall guidance regarding the areas of likely inundation im‐ pacts and for disaster-response planning [5]. The model output is spatially coarse and provides limited assistance to site-specific operational preparedness, but rather produces a

A GIS model has been created to downscale the resolution of the SLOSH output, and to provide a more representative estimation of inundation. The downscaling of the SLOSH output uses a variety of elevation layers to illustrate the model's flexibility. The down‐ scaled SLOSH outputs, shown in experimental form throughout this chapter, are com‐ pared to the other currently available SLOSH data products available in the State of North Carolina's geospatial clearinghouse, NC OneMap [6], to determine the best map‐ ping, interpolation, and visualization techniques to represent a slow-moving Saffir-Simp‐ son category 3 storm. Other comparisons that will be discussed include the areal extent of inundation produced by each model, the discrepancies of impacted critical infrastruc‐ ture in the output and the measures of size and vulnerabilities of affected at-risk popula‐

The SLOSH model was originally developed by the Techniques Development Laboratory of the National Weather Service (NWS) as a real-time operational surge forecast that could be run once the appropriate tropical cyclone track and pressure data became avail‐ able. The networks of grid points comprising model domains are called SLOSH basins,

**2. Spatial modeling of hurricane surge inundation**

first-order estimate of storm surge potential.

tions based on coarse- and fine-scale data.

**2.1. Slosh**

#### **1.2. General approaches to modeling water surfaces**

Users of storm surge model output should realize that the surface of the storm tide is not flat. It has relief. In addition, local short-term variation in sea surface height results mostly from tidal forces and atmospheric conditions and is less influenced by large-scale ocean and estuarine circulation, or even gravitational anomalies. NOAA has defined three broad cate‐ gories within which most storm surge models may be classified: modeled water surfaces, in‐ terpolated water surfaces, and single-value water surfaces [4]*.*

Modeled water surfaces typically comprise inundation grids that are based on output from either a single hydrodynamic model, or a combination of hydrodynamic and wave models. Both the SLOSH and ADCIRC models provide modeled water-surface outputs. Water sur‐ face models may consider variables such as winds, atmospheric pressure, tides, storm dura‐ tion, basin circulation, terrestrial obstructions, and other factors. Increased output accuracy of modeled water surfaces is the primary benefit that results from accounting for this diver‐ sity of variables. However, the models used to produce these surfaces require significant amounts of *a priori* information and often require expert-level knowledge of one or more modeling applications.

Interpolated water surfaces may be preferred when only a few water level observations exist for an area of interest. In such cases, the modeler must interpolate water level values be‐ tween actual water level measurements within the study area. This method is often used and best employed for post-event analysis when modelers employ observed high-water da‐ ta (e.g., high water marks or tide gauges) to reconstruct flood levels for a storm. This ap‐ proach for predictive surge modeling may have limited value due to the need for observational input. Input of a relatively small set of observational data may also result in a coarse resolution representation of the water surface height that does not adequately reflect variations due to terrestrial topography and other factors. However, the variety and com‐ plexity of interpolation methods benefits greatly from analyst experience in spatial statistical techniques.

Single-value water surface models create water surfaces representations based on a single numerical water level value that is draped over a study area. These models are often known as "bathtub" models as they simply raise the water surface evenly and consistently over an entire region. Single-value water surface models may be the best alternative where only one water level observation is available and other modeling techniques are impractical [4]. Static models such as these are also frequently developed as second-tier models that use the out‐ put from modeled water surfaces (SLOSH, ADCIRC) as input parameters. The case study explored later in this chapter makes use of this technique. Single-value models require mini‐ mal modeling expertise and for this reason are often employed by small organizations with limited resources. NOAA suggests that modeled and interpolated surfaces are generally preferred to the single-value method for better accuracy and more realistic depictions [4].

#### **2. Spatial modeling of hurricane surge inundation**

Storm surge models are often developed by coastal modelers who only give secondary con‐ sideration to visualization or the potential for integration into GIS and other decision-sup‐ port systems. There are many advantages to incorporation of such model output into decision-support systems. Other data layers, such as evacuation routes, critical infrastruc‐ ture, and vulnerable populations, can be analyzed in conjunction with the model results. The SLOSH model is the model that most emergency managers use for evacuation decisionmaking as well as for post-landfall guidance regarding the areas of likely inundation im‐ pacts and for disaster-response planning [5]. The model output is spatially coarse and provides limited assistance to site-specific operational preparedness, but rather produces a first-order estimate of storm surge potential.

A GIS model has been created to downscale the resolution of the SLOSH output, and to provide a more representative estimation of inundation. The downscaling of the SLOSH output uses a variety of elevation layers to illustrate the model's flexibility. The down‐ scaled SLOSH outputs, shown in experimental form throughout this chapter, are com‐ pared to the other currently available SLOSH data products available in the State of North Carolina's geospatial clearinghouse, NC OneMap [6], to determine the best map‐ ping, interpolation, and visualization techniques to represent a slow-moving Saffir-Simp‐ son category 3 storm. Other comparisons that will be discussed include the areal extent of inundation produced by each model, the discrepancies of impacted critical infrastruc‐ ture in the output and the measures of size and vulnerabilities of affected at-risk popula‐ tions based on coarse- and fine-scale data.

#### **2.1. Slosh**

sentation and visualization, and the applications of and hurdles for GIS post-processing and cartographic analysis and communication. A subset of computational techniques and geovi‐ sualizations are demonstrated that could improve upon the limitations inherent in the status quo approaches to representing surge and inundation model output. Applications and case studies that employ enhanced spatial resolution (down-scaled) grid output, enforcement of hydrologic connectivity in spatial models of inundation, and web-based, interactive cartog‐ raphy (2-D and 3-D) and 3-D, animated, and interactive-immersive geovisualization are de‐ scribed. Enhanced visualizations that provide better "on the ground" resolution of potential flooding events play an increasingly critical role in surge management and response, partic‐ ularly in urban centers with dense population and infrastructure. While storm tracks, inten‐ sity forecasts, and tabular metrics have become ubiquitous, they do little to convey the highly localized effects of potential flooding at municipal or facility scales. The chapter con‐ cludes with a case study, reflects upon the constraints and limitations, and makes sugges‐

106 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Users of storm surge model output should realize that the surface of the storm tide is not flat. It has relief. In addition, local short-term variation in sea surface height results mostly from tidal forces and atmospheric conditions and is less influenced by large-scale ocean and estuarine circulation, or even gravitational anomalies. NOAA has defined three broad cate‐ gories within which most storm surge models may be classified: modeled water surfaces, in‐

Modeled water surfaces typically comprise inundation grids that are based on output from either a single hydrodynamic model, or a combination of hydrodynamic and wave models. Both the SLOSH and ADCIRC models provide modeled water-surface outputs. Water sur‐ face models may consider variables such as winds, atmospheric pressure, tides, storm dura‐ tion, basin circulation, terrestrial obstructions, and other factors. Increased output accuracy of modeled water surfaces is the primary benefit that results from accounting for this diver‐ sity of variables. However, the models used to produce these surfaces require significant amounts of *a priori* information and often require expert-level knowledge of one or more

Interpolated water surfaces may be preferred when only a few water level observations exist for an area of interest. In such cases, the modeler must interpolate water level values be‐ tween actual water level measurements within the study area. This method is often used and best employed for post-event analysis when modelers employ observed high-water da‐ ta (e.g., high water marks or tide gauges) to reconstruct flood levels for a storm. This ap‐ proach for predictive surge modeling may have limited value due to the need for observational input. Input of a relatively small set of observational data may also result in a coarse resolution representation of the water surface height that does not adequately reflect variations due to terrestrial topography and other factors. However, the variety and com‐ plexity of interpolation methods benefits greatly from analyst experience in spatial statistical

tions for avenues of future research.

modeling applications.

techniques.

**1.2. General approaches to modeling water surfaces**

terpolated water surfaces, and single-value water surfaces [4]*.*

The SLOSH model was originally developed by the Techniques Development Laboratory of the National Weather Service (NWS) as a real-time operational surge forecast that could be run once the appropriate tropical cyclone track and pressure data became avail‐ able. The networks of grid points comprising model domains are called SLOSH basins, and have been created for the Atlantic coast, Gulf Coast, Bahamas, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, as well as for parts of China and India. Each grid cell in a SLOSH basin has either topographic or bathymetric data associated with it. Updates are released as new eleva‐ tion and bathymetry data for particular basins are provided by the U.S. Geological Sur‐ vey (USGS) and the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC). SLOSH basins are individually designed for the geography of a given coastal segment. Depending on the size and location of the particular area of interest, one might choose from an assortment of telescoping grids. The telescoping grid allows for higher resolution in coastal areas and less detail of open ocean. This reduces computing requirements compared to struc‐ tured grids with uniform cells across a model's domain.

To obtain the surge levels, the SLOSH model requires several fairly simple meteorological parameters, at specified time intervals. The calculations use the latitude and longitude of the storm's eye, central atmospheric pressure, the radius of the maximum winds (RMW), storm track and speed [7]. Surface wind speed is not an input parameter in the SLOSH model [8], but rather "water levels are forced by an idealized wind field that depends upon the pres‐ sure deficit (Δp) and the radius of maximum wind (RMW) from the storm center" [5]. Hous‐ ton and Powell [5] note that the calculations consider topography and bathymetry, but not astronomical tides, waves or rainfall flooding.

Every model, whether forecast model or numerical model, requires assumptions. Differ‐ ent models are designed to operate and handle these inaccuracies and assumptions in different ways depending on the end-product and the end-user. SLOSH has its own ser‐ ies of issues and limitations. One issue relevant to local application stems from the grid structure and basin formation. While the telescoping grids are efficient with regard to computational resources, they can fall short of local managers' desires when used to model inundation and surge to inform decision-making. For example, if the area of inter‐ est is a section of hurricane-prone Dare County, North Carolina, USA, the size of the cell is often too coarse to distinguish either surge on sound-side or back-barrier sites versus open-ocean shorelines, or the direction and interaction of both source area surges. Coarse resolution in this region occurs as a result of distance from the central arc of the SLOSH grid origin. Figure 1 illustrates how the cell size increases with the distance along an ax‐ is of the telescoping grid for an area of the Pamlico Sound SLOSH basin, and shows am‐ biguities of source-cell inundation (shown in hachures of selected grid cells overlaid on a greyscale of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) elevation grids for the peninsular mainland and Outer Banks barrier islands). One solution for disambiguating the poten‐ tial surge for finer-scale, local hurricane emergency management is to downscale the SLOSH surge forecast and incorporate finer elevation data and hydrologic modeling techniques in a GIS. To do so opens up a new set of issues and subject matter for re‐ search and geovisualization, but also new concerns for miscommunication and the mis‐ taken assumption of precision as opposed to model forecast accuracy.

**Figure 1.** SLOSH surge model grid for Pamlico Sound Basin, North Carolina (inset) and a subset of the northern Outer Banks, illustrating telescoping grid scale, overlapping sound and ocean cells. Background shading of elevation corre‐ sponds to high resolution airborne LiDAR elevation values. Grid cells symbolize SLOSH forecast surge heights (meters) for a Category 2 slow-moving storm (Maximum-of-Maximums scenario) with hachured grid cells denoting ambiguities

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109

Coastal emergency managers have begun using visualizations in graphical programs to portray potential changes of ground-level inundation from floods and surges with photo‐ realism and software applications such as *CanVis* [9,10]. Technologies such as webmap services and GIS portals are now ubiquitous and able to distribute storm surge models such as ADCIRC output and related maps and animations produced using real-time forecasting [11]. The Louisiana Geographic Information Center's 2009 Hurricane Re‐ sponse Mapping is one example that has linked the National Hurricane Center (NHC) products with custom-developed Internet map servers [12], while the NC Coastal Haz‐ ards Portal (NC COHAZ) is an experimental platform that integrates multiple hazard layers in separate thematic map interfaces (e.g., coastal erosion, surges, and real-time hazards) [13]. In addition, local emergency managers have GIS resources and personnel who can employ the GIS products like SLOSH from the NHC. Some may already be us‐

of source inundation (ocean vs. estuarine grid cells).

**2.2. Surge visualization for emergency management**

**Figure 1.** SLOSH surge model grid for Pamlico Sound Basin, North Carolina (inset) and a subset of the northern Outer Banks, illustrating telescoping grid scale, overlapping sound and ocean cells. Background shading of elevation corre‐ sponds to high resolution airborne LiDAR elevation values. Grid cells symbolize SLOSH forecast surge heights (meters) for a Category 2 slow-moving storm (Maximum-of-Maximums scenario) with hachured grid cells denoting ambiguities of source inundation (ocean vs. estuarine grid cells).

#### **2.2. Surge visualization for emergency management**

and have been created for the Atlantic coast, Gulf Coast, Bahamas, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, as well as for parts of China and India. Each grid cell in a SLOSH basin has either topographic or bathymetric data associated with it. Updates are released as new eleva‐ tion and bathymetry data for particular basins are provided by the U.S. Geological Sur‐ vey (USGS) and the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC). SLOSH basins are individually designed for the geography of a given coastal segment. Depending on the size and location of the particular area of interest, one might choose from an assortment of telescoping grids. The telescoping grid allows for higher resolution in coastal areas and less detail of open ocean. This reduces computing requirements compared to struc‐

108 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

To obtain the surge levels, the SLOSH model requires several fairly simple meteorological parameters, at specified time intervals. The calculations use the latitude and longitude of the storm's eye, central atmospheric pressure, the radius of the maximum winds (RMW), storm track and speed [7]. Surface wind speed is not an input parameter in the SLOSH model [8], but rather "water levels are forced by an idealized wind field that depends upon the pres‐ sure deficit (Δp) and the radius of maximum wind (RMW) from the storm center" [5]. Hous‐ ton and Powell [5] note that the calculations consider topography and bathymetry, but not

Every model, whether forecast model or numerical model, requires assumptions. Differ‐ ent models are designed to operate and handle these inaccuracies and assumptions in different ways depending on the end-product and the end-user. SLOSH has its own ser‐ ies of issues and limitations. One issue relevant to local application stems from the grid structure and basin formation. While the telescoping grids are efficient with regard to computational resources, they can fall short of local managers' desires when used to model inundation and surge to inform decision-making. For example, if the area of inter‐ est is a section of hurricane-prone Dare County, North Carolina, USA, the size of the cell is often too coarse to distinguish either surge on sound-side or back-barrier sites versus open-ocean shorelines, or the direction and interaction of both source area surges. Coarse resolution in this region occurs as a result of distance from the central arc of the SLOSH grid origin. Figure 1 illustrates how the cell size increases with the distance along an ax‐ is of the telescoping grid for an area of the Pamlico Sound SLOSH basin, and shows am‐ biguities of source-cell inundation (shown in hachures of selected grid cells overlaid on a greyscale of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) elevation grids for the peninsular mainland and Outer Banks barrier islands). One solution for disambiguating the poten‐ tial surge for finer-scale, local hurricane emergency management is to downscale the SLOSH surge forecast and incorporate finer elevation data and hydrologic modeling techniques in a GIS. To do so opens up a new set of issues and subject matter for re‐ search and geovisualization, but also new concerns for miscommunication and the mis‐

taken assumption of precision as opposed to model forecast accuracy.

tured grids with uniform cells across a model's domain.

astronomical tides, waves or rainfall flooding.

Coastal emergency managers have begun using visualizations in graphical programs to portray potential changes of ground-level inundation from floods and surges with photo‐ realism and software applications such as *CanVis* [9,10]. Technologies such as webmap services and GIS portals are now ubiquitous and able to distribute storm surge models such as ADCIRC output and related maps and animations produced using real-time forecasting [11]. The Louisiana Geographic Information Center's 2009 Hurricane Re‐ sponse Mapping is one example that has linked the National Hurricane Center (NHC) products with custom-developed Internet map servers [12], while the NC Coastal Haz‐ ards Portal (NC COHAZ) is an experimental platform that integrates multiple hazard layers in separate thematic map interfaces (e.g., coastal erosion, surges, and real-time hazards) [13]. In addition, local emergency managers have GIS resources and personnel who can employ the GIS products like SLOSH from the NHC. Some may already be us‐ ing GIS software, such as FEMA HAZUS for loss estimation, in their operations [14]. Output generated by HAZUS may include coastal flood models corresponding to 100 year return interval flood events, based on FEMA flood modeling. These output data can be rendered in a desktop GIS and even draped onto high resolution LiDAR DEMs with building footprints rendered in 3-D (Figure 2). The outputs of generic inundation or hy‐ drologic models are often erroneously applied to a specific, approaching hurricane to meet the desire of emergency management officials for data and forecasts specific to the potential track, intensity, and other factors of their storm. The result can be very inaccu‐ rate and grossly erroneous visuals. Therefore, anyone desiring to visualize forecast surg‐ es from hydrodynamic models must first select the most appropriate surge model output data and cross-reference this to the spatial context, resolution, and time-delimited needs of emergency managers. SLOSH Maximum Envelope of Water (MEOW) and Maximum of Maximum (MOM) of MEOW files are provided with the SLOSH Display System [15] and are exportable to ESRI shapefile format for GIS analysis. The SLOSH Display System provides access to a library of pre-run simulations, including a graphical user interface (GUI) to query and extract appropriate MEOW or MOM files. The system can be used as a stand-alone decision support tool or in conjunction with other software (such as FE‐ MA's HAZUS-MH [16], Sea Island Software and FEMA-funded HURREVAC [17], PC Weather Products' HURRTRAK tracking software [18], or within a GIS). In general, the MOMs provide forecast guidance for up to 5 days of pre-landfall operations and deci‐ sion-making. MEOW surge files, depending upon the local evacuation dimensions, rout‐ ing issues, and congestion factors, can be used to guide decision-making closer to the actual critical decision time. A minimum clearance time of 24 to 48 hours is typically de‐ sired, and this often prompts the use of MOM and MEOW surge estimates for guidance. Prior to landfall, hurricane track and intensity forecasts are usually inadequate to judi‐ ciously postpone a decision, unless tropical storm-force winds arrive during an evacua‐ tion. Furthermore, antecedent rainfall and forecasts from the NWS's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center [19], time of day, tides, and local logistical factors are also used in re‐ sponse decisions and the selection of surge guidance.

**Figure 2.** Orthoperspective of SLOSH surge model for northern Outer Banks (Kitty Hawk, Southern Shores, and Duck) illustrating digitized inundation contours for a SLOSH MOM category 2 slow-moving storm, superimposed over eleva‐ tion with building model footprints extruded in 3-D. Lighter tones on the background DEM depict high dunes (upper

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Every model, whether forecast model or numerical model, produces errors, uncertainties, and contains assumptions. Models are designed to handle some of these factors in different ways that depend upon the end-product and the end-user. SLOSH is no exception to this. It has its own series of issues and limitations. The limitations of concern here are primarily as‐

The first issue to be addressed is grid-type and basin geography. While the telescoping grids are designed to limit computational resources needed to run the model, they can fall short for surge inundation visualization. For example, if the area of interest is a section of Dare County, North Carolina, a highly hurricane-prone area, the size of the native SLOSH cell is too coarse for a site-specific visualization of surge, primarily because cell size increases with distance from the central arc of the origin of the grid. This limits the effectiveness of inunda‐ tion forecasts for an emergency manager depending upon SLOSH output to identify prob‐

right) and beach ridges for the relict Kitty Hawk Woods coastal spit (foreground.)

sociated with grid-type, basin, and environmental parameters.

**2.3. Surge modeling limitations**

*2.3.1. Grid spatial resolution*

The MEOW output characterizes maximum surge level associated with a hypothetical storm at any time for every grid cell in a SLOSH Basin. The MEOW represents the worst-case flooding scenario possible from a threatening hurricane of a given category, size, and particular track direction [20]. MEOW files do not directly incorporate tidal conditions, but these may be generalized and either added or subtracted in software like the SLOSH Display System.

A MOM is the maximum of a set of MEOWs, forming a composite of the maximum water levels at every grid cell for all hurricanes of a given category and for water from all direc‐ tions. There are only 5 MOMs for each SLOSH model basin, each representing a single storm category. As with MEOWs, the MOM does not factor in tides. However, the SLOSH Display System provides easy access to the library of pre-run simulations, and to a GUI to query and extract appropriate MEOW or MOM files and to incorporate approximate tidal conditions at landfall (low, mean, or high).

Visualization for Hurricane Storm Surge Risk Awareness and Emergency Communication http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/53770 111

**Figure 2.** Orthoperspective of SLOSH surge model for northern Outer Banks (Kitty Hawk, Southern Shores, and Duck) illustrating digitized inundation contours for a SLOSH MOM category 2 slow-moving storm, superimposed over eleva‐ tion with building model footprints extruded in 3-D. Lighter tones on the background DEM depict high dunes (upper right) and beach ridges for the relict Kitty Hawk Woods coastal spit (foreground.)

#### **2.3. Surge modeling limitations**

ing GIS software, such as FEMA HAZUS for loss estimation, in their operations [14]. Output generated by HAZUS may include coastal flood models corresponding to 100 year return interval flood events, based on FEMA flood modeling. These output data can be rendered in a desktop GIS and even draped onto high resolution LiDAR DEMs with building footprints rendered in 3-D (Figure 2). The outputs of generic inundation or hy‐ drologic models are often erroneously applied to a specific, approaching hurricane to meet the desire of emergency management officials for data and forecasts specific to the potential track, intensity, and other factors of their storm. The result can be very inaccu‐ rate and grossly erroneous visuals. Therefore, anyone desiring to visualize forecast surg‐ es from hydrodynamic models must first select the most appropriate surge model output data and cross-reference this to the spatial context, resolution, and time-delimited needs of emergency managers. SLOSH Maximum Envelope of Water (MEOW) and Maximum of Maximum (MOM) of MEOW files are provided with the SLOSH Display System [15] and are exportable to ESRI shapefile format for GIS analysis. The SLOSH Display System provides access to a library of pre-run simulations, including a graphical user interface (GUI) to query and extract appropriate MEOW or MOM files. The system can be used as a stand-alone decision support tool or in conjunction with other software (such as FE‐ MA's HAZUS-MH [16], Sea Island Software and FEMA-funded HURREVAC [17], PC Weather Products' HURRTRAK tracking software [18], or within a GIS). In general, the MOMs provide forecast guidance for up to 5 days of pre-landfall operations and deci‐ sion-making. MEOW surge files, depending upon the local evacuation dimensions, rout‐ ing issues, and congestion factors, can be used to guide decision-making closer to the actual critical decision time. A minimum clearance time of 24 to 48 hours is typically de‐ sired, and this often prompts the use of MOM and MEOW surge estimates for guidance. Prior to landfall, hurricane track and intensity forecasts are usually inadequate to judi‐ ciously postpone a decision, unless tropical storm-force winds arrive during an evacua‐ tion. Furthermore, antecedent rainfall and forecasts from the NWS's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center [19], time of day, tides, and local logistical factors are also used in re‐

110 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

The MEOW output characterizes maximum surge level associated with a hypothetical storm at any time for every grid cell in a SLOSH Basin. The MEOW represents the worst-case flooding scenario possible from a threatening hurricane of a given category, size, and particular track direction [20]. MEOW files do not directly incorporate tidal conditions, but these may be generalized and either added or subtracted in software like

A MOM is the maximum of a set of MEOWs, forming a composite of the maximum water levels at every grid cell for all hurricanes of a given category and for water from all direc‐ tions. There are only 5 MOMs for each SLOSH model basin, each representing a single storm category. As with MEOWs, the MOM does not factor in tides. However, the SLOSH Display System provides easy access to the library of pre-run simulations, and to a GUI to query and extract appropriate MEOW or MOM files and to incorporate approximate tidal conditions at

sponse decisions and the selection of surge guidance.

the SLOSH Display System.

landfall (low, mean, or high).

Every model, whether forecast model or numerical model, produces errors, uncertainties, and contains assumptions. Models are designed to handle some of these factors in different ways that depend upon the end-product and the end-user. SLOSH is no exception to this. It has its own series of issues and limitations. The limitations of concern here are primarily as‐ sociated with grid-type, basin, and environmental parameters.

#### *2.3.1. Grid spatial resolution*

The first issue to be addressed is grid-type and basin geography. While the telescoping grids are designed to limit computational resources needed to run the model, they can fall short for surge inundation visualization. For example, if the area of interest is a section of Dare County, North Carolina, a highly hurricane-prone area, the size of the native SLOSH cell is too coarse for a site-specific visualization of surge, primarily because cell size increases with distance from the central arc of the origin of the grid. This limits the effectiveness of inunda‐ tion forecasts for an emergency manager depending upon SLOSH output to identify prob‐ lem areas, site vulnerabilities, relief staging areas, evacuation orders, shelters of last resort, or rapid response, reentry, and recovery operations. Later in this chapter, a method to down-scale and visualize some of these sensitivities is evaluated.

from only 8 to 12 feet (2.44 to 3.66 m). Since SLOSH computes storm tide elevations in Na‐ tional Geodetic Vertical Datum 1929, it is at least cumbersome to recalculate values to match extensive LiDAR DEMs in vertical meters and North American Vertical Datum 1988 (feet or meters). By design, SLOSH does not incorporate fine-scale landform features and potential inundation thresholds (such as the breaching of inlets in barrier islands, dunes, or engi‐ neered features such as levee). The grid resolution of SLOSH is variable and relatively coarse scale, with most cells on the order of 1 mile x 1 mile (1.6 km x 1.6 km). Elevations for grid cells are based on the averages of underlying DEMs, so the actual cell may really pos‐ sess a non-normal distribution of elevation. Levee areas or areas protected by natural ridges may be overgeneralized. Furthermore, flooding in SLOSH cells is considered aspatially, wherein each cell is flooded as if it was inundated irrespective of the direction of flooding.

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To assess the impacts of errors in elevation models as they relate to downscaling of SLOSH values to a finer grid, a Monte Carlo simulation was conducted. The primary goal of the downscaling model is to predict the area of inundation by utilizing the SLOSH model out‐ put and a DEM. The degree of positional error is related to the uncertainty in vertical and horizontal measurements and issues surrounding datum conversion, projections, and inter‐ polation methods. If using high resolution airborne LiDAR, the dense sampling of LiDAR points reduces projection and interpolation errors to practically negligible for shorelines [22]. Airborne topographic LiDAR is increasingly available with a horizontal accuracy of +/- 2.0 m and a vertical accuracy of +/-0.30 m (even as fine as +/- 5 to 10 cm). This amount of potential error may cause the position of the inundation zone to fluctuate either landward or seaward, but far less than any other modeling approach. Liu et al. [22] note that "the error inflation factor is determined by the foreshore slope. For each beach with a gentle surface slope, a slight vertical error will be amplified and translated to a larger error" [22]. Nonethe‐ less, larger spatial error could result in poor decision making in the face of an extreme coast‐ al event. The Norfolk, Virginia case study provides some insight into urban facility

The experimental demonstrations below primarily analyzed SLOSH and North Carolina Li‐ DAR elevation data. The SLOSH data were obtained from two sources, the SLOSH Display Package [15] distributed by NOAA NHC and the NC Center for Geographic Information and Analysis (NCCGIA) data from NC OneMap online GIS repository [6]. The SLOSH data from NOAA are used in the downscaling model, and input as either MEOW or MOM file. The SLOSH MOM data are a "worst case" scenario, in which multiple hurricane tracks are used and landfall can occur from multiple directions for a given storm category and speed [15]. Elevation data were obtained from the North Carolina Flood Plain Mapping program in a variety of spatial resolutions (NC Floodplain Mapping Program uses 50 feet (15.24 m),

managers' concerns and the possible ramifications of error.

20 feet (6.1 m), and 10 feet (3.0 m) resampled elevation grids).

**3. Geovisualization**

#### *2.3.2. Forecast storm track uncertainty, waves, and tides*

Limitations of the model remain a concern, particularly of concern is the need to simultane‐ ously account for wave heights, astronomical tides and the forcings created by river-water levels that are not included in the model. Nonetheless, a set of MEOW grids are derived from hundreds of storm-track scenarios (based on varying the direction of landfall), for‐ ward-speed scenarios and tides scenarios (mean and high). Forward-speed scenarios predict surge variation according to increments of 5, 10, or 15 mph (8, 16, or 24 kph), which im‐ proves the earlier "slow" (<18mph, 29kph) and "fast" (>18mph or 29kph) scenarios. Emer‐ gency planning also benefits from the simpler derivation of MOM files, which characterize the maximum of MEOWs and provide a consistent worst-case picture of storm surges at specific intensities (Saffir-Simpson category 1-2, 3, and 4-5 are aggregated in traditional in‐ undation contour maps), notwithstanding the limitations of antecedent precipitation and river-flow input, astronomical tides and waves.

Physical processes are fully represented in SLOSH. Temporal considerations dictate the use of pre-run models for 'worst case' estimates or reliance on single-run deterministic track runs (dependent and highly sensitive to track or intensity forecast errors). Thus, while SLOSH remains the NWS's *de facto* standard and operational model, it is also more often used in conjunction with forecasts from ADCIRC based on deterministic runs within ap‐ proximately 24 hours of hurricane landfall. The model's limitations remain a concern. None‐ theless, a set of MEOWs output grids are derived from hundreds of storm-track, forwardspeeds and tidal scenarios.

#### *2.3.3. Currency and near-real-time utility*

Real-time wind-field predictions or measurements are also lacking in SLOSH output. The wind models used by SLOSH can vary greatly from a storm's actual wind field in time, space, and magnitude. This was the case for hurricane Emily in 1993 when the eye wall crossed eastern Pamlico Sound in North Carolina causing very strong surface winds, and the SLOSH model "…significantly underestimated the surface winds and resulting storm surge observed on the Pamlico Sound side of Cape Hatteras" [5]. In further comparisons of SLOSH-model wind fields with observed winds, it was concluded that the use of the NOAA Hurricane Research Division's real-time wind-field data could be used to improve the SLOSH model's estimated values.

#### *2.3.4. Surge uncertainty and elevation*

The accuracy of SLOSH is also limited by elevation data accuracy and resolution. Surge heights are represented by a +/- 20% accuracy of predicted maximum surge height [21]. For instance, a prediction of 15-foot surge (4.57 m) might actually produce a range of prediction from only 8 to 12 feet (2.44 to 3.66 m). Since SLOSH computes storm tide elevations in Na‐ tional Geodetic Vertical Datum 1929, it is at least cumbersome to recalculate values to match extensive LiDAR DEMs in vertical meters and North American Vertical Datum 1988 (feet or meters). By design, SLOSH does not incorporate fine-scale landform features and potential inundation thresholds (such as the breaching of inlets in barrier islands, dunes, or engi‐ neered features such as levee). The grid resolution of SLOSH is variable and relatively coarse scale, with most cells on the order of 1 mile x 1 mile (1.6 km x 1.6 km). Elevations for grid cells are based on the averages of underlying DEMs, so the actual cell may really pos‐ sess a non-normal distribution of elevation. Levee areas or areas protected by natural ridges may be overgeneralized. Furthermore, flooding in SLOSH cells is considered aspatially, wherein each cell is flooded as if it was inundated irrespective of the direction of flooding.

To assess the impacts of errors in elevation models as they relate to downscaling of SLOSH values to a finer grid, a Monte Carlo simulation was conducted. The primary goal of the downscaling model is to predict the area of inundation by utilizing the SLOSH model out‐ put and a DEM. The degree of positional error is related to the uncertainty in vertical and horizontal measurements and issues surrounding datum conversion, projections, and inter‐ polation methods. If using high resolution airborne LiDAR, the dense sampling of LiDAR points reduces projection and interpolation errors to practically negligible for shorelines [22]. Airborne topographic LiDAR is increasingly available with a horizontal accuracy of +/- 2.0 m and a vertical accuracy of +/-0.30 m (even as fine as +/- 5 to 10 cm). This amount of potential error may cause the position of the inundation zone to fluctuate either landward or seaward, but far less than any other modeling approach. Liu et al. [22] note that "the error inflation factor is determined by the foreshore slope. For each beach with a gentle surface slope, a slight vertical error will be amplified and translated to a larger error" [22]. Nonethe‐ less, larger spatial error could result in poor decision making in the face of an extreme coast‐ al event. The Norfolk, Virginia case study provides some insight into urban facility managers' concerns and the possible ramifications of error.

#### **3. Geovisualization**

lem areas, site vulnerabilities, relief staging areas, evacuation orders, shelters of last resort, or rapid response, reentry, and recovery operations. Later in this chapter, a method to

Limitations of the model remain a concern, particularly of concern is the need to simultane‐ ously account for wave heights, astronomical tides and the forcings created by river-water levels that are not included in the model. Nonetheless, a set of MEOW grids are derived from hundreds of storm-track scenarios (based on varying the direction of landfall), for‐ ward-speed scenarios and tides scenarios (mean and high). Forward-speed scenarios predict surge variation according to increments of 5, 10, or 15 mph (8, 16, or 24 kph), which im‐ proves the earlier "slow" (<18mph, 29kph) and "fast" (>18mph or 29kph) scenarios. Emer‐ gency planning also benefits from the simpler derivation of MOM files, which characterize the maximum of MEOWs and provide a consistent worst-case picture of storm surges at specific intensities (Saffir-Simpson category 1-2, 3, and 4-5 are aggregated in traditional in‐ undation contour maps), notwithstanding the limitations of antecedent precipitation and

Physical processes are fully represented in SLOSH. Temporal considerations dictate the use of pre-run models for 'worst case' estimates or reliance on single-run deterministic track runs (dependent and highly sensitive to track or intensity forecast errors). Thus, while SLOSH remains the NWS's *de facto* standard and operational model, it is also more often used in conjunction with forecasts from ADCIRC based on deterministic runs within ap‐ proximately 24 hours of hurricane landfall. The model's limitations remain a concern. None‐ theless, a set of MEOWs output grids are derived from hundreds of storm-track, forward-

Real-time wind-field predictions or measurements are also lacking in SLOSH output. The wind models used by SLOSH can vary greatly from a storm's actual wind field in time, space, and magnitude. This was the case for hurricane Emily in 1993 when the eye wall crossed eastern Pamlico Sound in North Carolina causing very strong surface winds, and the SLOSH model "…significantly underestimated the surface winds and resulting storm surge observed on the Pamlico Sound side of Cape Hatteras" [5]. In further comparisons of SLOSH-model wind fields with observed winds, it was concluded that the use of the NOAA Hurricane Research Division's real-time wind-field data could be used to improve the

The accuracy of SLOSH is also limited by elevation data accuracy and resolution. Surge heights are represented by a +/- 20% accuracy of predicted maximum surge height [21]. For instance, a prediction of 15-foot surge (4.57 m) might actually produce a range of prediction

down-scale and visualize some of these sensitivities is evaluated.

112 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

*2.3.2. Forecast storm track uncertainty, waves, and tides*

river-flow input, astronomical tides and waves.

speeds and tidal scenarios.

*2.3.3. Currency and near-real-time utility*

SLOSH model's estimated values.

*2.3.4. Surge uncertainty and elevation*

The experimental demonstrations below primarily analyzed SLOSH and North Carolina Li‐ DAR elevation data. The SLOSH data were obtained from two sources, the SLOSH Display Package [15] distributed by NOAA NHC and the NC Center for Geographic Information and Analysis (NCCGIA) data from NC OneMap online GIS repository [6]. The SLOSH data from NOAA are used in the downscaling model, and input as either MEOW or MOM file. The SLOSH MOM data are a "worst case" scenario, in which multiple hurricane tracks are used and landfall can occur from multiple directions for a given storm category and speed [15]. Elevation data were obtained from the North Carolina Flood Plain Mapping program in a variety of spatial resolutions (NC Floodplain Mapping Program uses 50 feet (15.24 m), 20 feet (6.1 m), and 10 feet (3.0 m) resampled elevation grids).

#### **3.1. Downscaling and spatial analysis**

The spatial modeling methods employed here include a combination of vector- and rasterbased analysis, as well as automation using ArcGIS Model Builder. The downscaling model has the flexibility of incorporating a user-defined elevation grid and allows future iterations of the model to estimate inundation as new data become available. This is a substantial im‐ provement over the traditional method of producing downscaled inundation maps, which were created with hand- digitized USGS topographic maps. The model also allows for the input of deterministic SLOSH model output from the NHC in the event of an actual storm, giving emergency managers more accurate predictions of area inundation, the affected pop‐ ulations and evacuations routes.

*3.3. Monte Carlo error modeling*

their differences were recorded.

southeastern Virginia on August 27.

surge in the region [24].

was performed at the university.

The procedure used in the assessment of accuracy errors in the prediction of inundation area was similar to those used by Liu. First, the levels of error and uncertainty (bound of poten‐ tial error) of the source elevation model were determined. Then using a pseudo-random number generator and the bound of potential error, 30 random permutations were created. All 30 had similar means and standard deviations and were therefore determined to be within the realm of possible error. The inundation model was run on each permutation and

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**3.4. Case study: Hurricane Irene 2011 urban storm surge in Norfolk, Virginia, USA**

In August 2011, Hurricane Irene drew close to the southeastern U.S. coast (Figure 3), eventu‐ ally making landfall at Cape Lookout, North Carolina at 8 a.m. EDT, August 25, 2011 as a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph. The storm moved more slowly than expected over North Carolina, with its center crossing over Norfolk and

The path of Hurricane Irene was accurately predicted more than four days in advance by NOAA's NHC [23]. As the storm approached, the Emergency Management team at Old Do‐ minion University (ODU) in Norfolk, Virginia began creating impact scenarios and making contingency plans. Potential flooding was of critical concern for a number of reasons. The university's population of 25,000 students has become more residential over the last few years and includes a large number of international students that have no other permanent U.S. residences to serve as temporary shelter. ODU is in a highly urbanized, mixed-use set‐ ting within Norfolk, is adjacent to several tidally influenced surge-prone water bodies (Chesapeake Bay, the Elizabeth River, and the Lafayette River) and has restricted transporta‐ tion routes and limited evacuation corridors. A 2007 surge study in Norfolk revealed that census blocks near the university had some of the highest vulnerability to hurricane storm

The inherent challenges related to impending surge from an oncoming storm were exacer‐ bated by Irene's timing as she was expected to pass over ODU during the "move-in" week‐ end for residential students. University administrators were faced with decisions such as: *Should students be allowed to move in prior to the storm? Do we evacuate residents and, if so, to where? What critical infrastructure is likely to be exposed to flooding? Should assets be relocated to mitigate damage? Which areas require temporary storm protection (sand bagging, etc.)? Which areas may be isolated during the flooding?* The best available information regarding potential storm surge flooding was required to confidently answer these questions. In June 2011, the Hamp‐ ton Roads Planning District Commission (HRPDC) had compiled a report addressing stormsurge vulnerability in southeastern Virginia [25]. While this report estimated that over 100,000 people may be displaced by a Category 1 storm, regional surge maps were not of sufficient resolution to be useful at neighborhood or facility scales. To remedy this scale is‐ sue, independent GIS modeling and analysis of the surge potential associated with Irene

Most inundation models allow for the flooding of interior sections of land as water levels rise, that are, in reality, disconnected from water sources (either a bay or the ocean), an issue known as hydro-connectivity. This is typically referred to as a "bathtub model" and pro‐ vides inaccurate representations. Hydro-connectivity is established in the model applied here by using a cost-distance function that allows inundation only from a source raster of water (i.e., a bay or the ocean). This generates better results than those produced using sin‐ gle-pixel or contour-based bathtub inundation.

The output from the SLOSH downscaling model is a raster grid. Once the downscaling has been computed, map algebra calculations are used to compare differences in inundation be‐ tween the three elevation resolutions, and ultimately to a rasterized NCCGIA data. The analysis will be conducted for Dare County, North Carolina, with a special focus on Roa‐ noke Island and the city of Nags Head. In subsequent geovisualization techniques, the Li‐ DAR-based and SLOSH-downscaled surge inundation calculations are used.

#### **3.2. 3-D Geovisualization**

In addition to official updates from the NWS, other groups have worked with model output to refine the resolution for better visualization and more accurate representation of inundation. The size of the cells to the south of Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, for ex‐ ample, is not always appropriate for visualization. Figure 1 shows that single SLOSH cells may cover an entire swath of barrier island and in the current example (SLOSH cat‐ egory 2, fast-moving MOM) that stretch of barrier island would be inundated with be‐ tween 1 and 2 meters of water.

The NCCGIA inundation and SLOSH inundation polygons are aggregated using the availa‐ ble 1:24,000 USGS topographic maps (approximately 5-foot or 1.5-meter contour interval). Areal interpolation was used to create an overlay to delimit inundation according to lumped categories 1 and 2, category 3, and categories 4 and 5 hurricanes. The result was a polygon file that exhibits inundation with relatively fine detail (Figure 2). These elevation data, how‐ ever, have been vastly eclipsed by LiDAR bare-earth models with 15-cm vertical accuracy and 5- to 20-m spatial resolution.

#### *3.3. Monte Carlo error modeling*

**3.1. Downscaling and spatial analysis**

ulations and evacuations routes.

**3.2. 3-D Geovisualization**

tween 1 and 2 meters of water.

and 5- to 20-m spatial resolution.

gle-pixel or contour-based bathtub inundation.

The spatial modeling methods employed here include a combination of vector- and rasterbased analysis, as well as automation using ArcGIS Model Builder. The downscaling model has the flexibility of incorporating a user-defined elevation grid and allows future iterations of the model to estimate inundation as new data become available. This is a substantial im‐ provement over the traditional method of producing downscaled inundation maps, which were created with hand- digitized USGS topographic maps. The model also allows for the input of deterministic SLOSH model output from the NHC in the event of an actual storm, giving emergency managers more accurate predictions of area inundation, the affected pop‐

114 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Most inundation models allow for the flooding of interior sections of land as water levels rise, that are, in reality, disconnected from water sources (either a bay or the ocean), an issue known as hydro-connectivity. This is typically referred to as a "bathtub model" and pro‐ vides inaccurate representations. Hydro-connectivity is established in the model applied here by using a cost-distance function that allows inundation only from a source raster of water (i.e., a bay or the ocean). This generates better results than those produced using sin‐

The output from the SLOSH downscaling model is a raster grid. Once the downscaling has been computed, map algebra calculations are used to compare differences in inundation be‐ tween the three elevation resolutions, and ultimately to a rasterized NCCGIA data. The analysis will be conducted for Dare County, North Carolina, with a special focus on Roa‐ noke Island and the city of Nags Head. In subsequent geovisualization techniques, the Li‐

In addition to official updates from the NWS, other groups have worked with model output to refine the resolution for better visualization and more accurate representation of inundation. The size of the cells to the south of Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, for ex‐ ample, is not always appropriate for visualization. Figure 1 shows that single SLOSH cells may cover an entire swath of barrier island and in the current example (SLOSH cat‐ egory 2, fast-moving MOM) that stretch of barrier island would be inundated with be‐

The NCCGIA inundation and SLOSH inundation polygons are aggregated using the availa‐ ble 1:24,000 USGS topographic maps (approximately 5-foot or 1.5-meter contour interval). Areal interpolation was used to create an overlay to delimit inundation according to lumped categories 1 and 2, category 3, and categories 4 and 5 hurricanes. The result was a polygon file that exhibits inundation with relatively fine detail (Figure 2). These elevation data, how‐ ever, have been vastly eclipsed by LiDAR bare-earth models with 15-cm vertical accuracy

DAR-based and SLOSH-downscaled surge inundation calculations are used.

The procedure used in the assessment of accuracy errors in the prediction of inundation area was similar to those used by Liu. First, the levels of error and uncertainty (bound of poten‐ tial error) of the source elevation model were determined. Then using a pseudo-random number generator and the bound of potential error, 30 random permutations were created. All 30 had similar means and standard deviations and were therefore determined to be within the realm of possible error. The inundation model was run on each permutation and their differences were recorded.

#### **3.4. Case study: Hurricane Irene 2011 urban storm surge in Norfolk, Virginia, USA**

In August 2011, Hurricane Irene drew close to the southeastern U.S. coast (Figure 3), eventu‐ ally making landfall at Cape Lookout, North Carolina at 8 a.m. EDT, August 25, 2011 as a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph. The storm moved more slowly than expected over North Carolina, with its center crossing over Norfolk and southeastern Virginia on August 27.

The path of Hurricane Irene was accurately predicted more than four days in advance by NOAA's NHC [23]. As the storm approached, the Emergency Management team at Old Do‐ minion University (ODU) in Norfolk, Virginia began creating impact scenarios and making contingency plans. Potential flooding was of critical concern for a number of reasons. The university's population of 25,000 students has become more residential over the last few years and includes a large number of international students that have no other permanent U.S. residences to serve as temporary shelter. ODU is in a highly urbanized, mixed-use set‐ ting within Norfolk, is adjacent to several tidally influenced surge-prone water bodies (Chesapeake Bay, the Elizabeth River, and the Lafayette River) and has restricted transporta‐ tion routes and limited evacuation corridors. A 2007 surge study in Norfolk revealed that census blocks near the university had some of the highest vulnerability to hurricane storm surge in the region [24].

The inherent challenges related to impending surge from an oncoming storm were exacer‐ bated by Irene's timing as she was expected to pass over ODU during the "move-in" week‐ end for residential students. University administrators were faced with decisions such as: *Should students be allowed to move in prior to the storm? Do we evacuate residents and, if so, to where? What critical infrastructure is likely to be exposed to flooding? Should assets be relocated to mitigate damage? Which areas require temporary storm protection (sand bagging, etc.)? Which areas may be isolated during the flooding?* The best available information regarding potential storm surge flooding was required to confidently answer these questions. In June 2011, the Hamp‐ ton Roads Planning District Commission (HRPDC) had compiled a report addressing stormsurge vulnerability in southeastern Virginia [25]. While this report estimated that over 100,000 people may be displaced by a Category 1 storm, regional surge maps were not of sufficient resolution to be useful at neighborhood or facility scales. To remedy this scale is‐ sue, independent GIS modeling and analysis of the surge potential associated with Irene was performed at the university.

**4. Results and discussion**

**4.1. Downscaling and spatial analysis**

Outer Banks relative to data indicated in LiDAR DEMs.

dunes and, in Jockey's Ridge State Park, a star dune.

To exploit the available LiDAR DEMs, the model used accepts either raw MEOW/MOM da‐ ta or deterministic runs when available and it outputs similar results. This dataset adds the option of including high accuracy LIDAR DEMs as they become available and using deter‐ ministic runs when they are made available by the NWS. The model inputs SLOSH, LiDAR DEMs, and water raster data and computes a cost-distance function with enforced hydroconnectivity to the bay or the ocean. The inundation can only originate from open-water sources and this eliminates the non-connected inundation polygons associated with "bath‐ tub" models. Model output from three different elevation grids (2.4, 6.1, and 3.0 m resolu‐ tion) generated similar results. The inundation grids from the 20-foot resolution (6.0 m) downscaled inundation model were overlaid with the NCCGIA interpolated contour-based flood prediction (Figure 4). The contour-based surge model expects more inundation on the

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**Figure 4.** The comparison of results of inundation grids from the 20-foot resolution (6.0 m) downscaled inundation model and the NCCGIA interpolated contour-based flood prediction model from USGS 30 m DEMs (red-only), areas of agreement (purple), and areas of LiDAR-based potential inundation (blue-only) for a subset area of the Outer Banks and northern tip of Roanoke Island (at bottom). Shades of light grey surrounded by surge areas are relict medaño

**Figure 3.** NOAA GOES-13 satellite showing Hurricane Irene on August 25, 2011 at 10:10 a.m. EDT.

Localized surge inundation models were created for the ODU campus following three basic steps outlined by NOAA: 1) obtain and prepare elevation data, 2) determine water levels, 3) create MEOW inundation maps for the study area from the SLOSH display package. At the time of Irene's approach, ODU already possessed the best available high resolution (1-foot or 0.3-m grid) LiDAR-derived elevation data having an accuracy of +/-.30 m, referenced to the National Geodetic Vertical Datum 1929 (NAVD29). Horizontal and vertical datums (ref‐ erence heights) must match when creating and overlaying elevation surfaces. If they do not, error will be introduced into the flood model elevation surface [4].

Since its inception, the SLOSH model has been used successfully by numerous emergency management agencies and forecasters to predict storm surge and assess flood potential [26]. Given the longevity and widespread use of the SLOSH model, ODU elected to use SLOSH model water level output and to evaluate the probabilistic SLOSH forecasts [27] for a "bath‐ tub" campus flooding model. In this hybrid approach, iterative flood surfaces were devel‐ oped from the most current storm track and intensity forecasts provided the NWS and NHC. Immediately prior to Irene's landfall, the most likely storm parameters were: a catego‐ ry 2 storm bearing NNE at 14 mph (22.5 kph) during mid-tide with the tide rising. Thus, this case using SLOSH, local LiDAR and 3-D GIS data provides insight into fine-resolution, ur‐ ban applications of these modeling and geovisualization techniques.

#### **4. Results and discussion**

**Figure 3.** NOAA GOES-13 satellite showing Hurricane Irene on August 25, 2011 at 10:10 a.m. EDT.

116 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

error will be introduced into the flood model elevation surface [4].

ban applications of these modeling and geovisualization techniques.

Localized surge inundation models were created for the ODU campus following three basic steps outlined by NOAA: 1) obtain and prepare elevation data, 2) determine water levels, 3) create MEOW inundation maps for the study area from the SLOSH display package. At the time of Irene's approach, ODU already possessed the best available high resolution (1-foot or 0.3-m grid) LiDAR-derived elevation data having an accuracy of +/-.30 m, referenced to the National Geodetic Vertical Datum 1929 (NAVD29). Horizontal and vertical datums (ref‐ erence heights) must match when creating and overlaying elevation surfaces. If they do not,

Since its inception, the SLOSH model has been used successfully by numerous emergency management agencies and forecasters to predict storm surge and assess flood potential [26]. Given the longevity and widespread use of the SLOSH model, ODU elected to use SLOSH model water level output and to evaluate the probabilistic SLOSH forecasts [27] for a "bath‐ tub" campus flooding model. In this hybrid approach, iterative flood surfaces were devel‐ oped from the most current storm track and intensity forecasts provided the NWS and NHC. Immediately prior to Irene's landfall, the most likely storm parameters were: a catego‐ ry 2 storm bearing NNE at 14 mph (22.5 kph) during mid-tide with the tide rising. Thus, this case using SLOSH, local LiDAR and 3-D GIS data provides insight into fine-resolution, ur‐

#### **4.1. Downscaling and spatial analysis**

To exploit the available LiDAR DEMs, the model used accepts either raw MEOW/MOM da‐ ta or deterministic runs when available and it outputs similar results. This dataset adds the option of including high accuracy LIDAR DEMs as they become available and using deter‐ ministic runs when they are made available by the NWS. The model inputs SLOSH, LiDAR DEMs, and water raster data and computes a cost-distance function with enforced hydroconnectivity to the bay or the ocean. The inundation can only originate from open-water sources and this eliminates the non-connected inundation polygons associated with "bath‐ tub" models. Model output from three different elevation grids (2.4, 6.1, and 3.0 m resolu‐ tion) generated similar results. The inundation grids from the 20-foot resolution (6.0 m) downscaled inundation model were overlaid with the NCCGIA interpolated contour-based flood prediction (Figure 4). The contour-based surge model expects more inundation on the Outer Banks relative to data indicated in LiDAR DEMs.

**Figure 4.** The comparison of results of inundation grids from the 20-foot resolution (6.0 m) downscaled inundation model and the NCCGIA interpolated contour-based flood prediction model from USGS 30 m DEMs (red-only), areas of agreement (purple), and areas of LiDAR-based potential inundation (blue-only) for a subset area of the Outer Banks and northern tip of Roanoke Island (at bottom). Shades of light grey surrounded by surge areas are relict medaño dunes and, in Jockey's Ridge State Park, a star dune.

#### **4.2. Geovisualization**

An experimental program to visualize and communicate storm surge risk and raise aware‐ ness to the hazard prompted the development of 3-D models and a series of photorealistic, interactive, and animated geovisualizations. In cooperation with Dare County (North Caro‐ lina) Office of Emergency Management, the Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) East Carolina Engagement Center [28] developed 3-D building models using Google Sketchup software. Seventeen prominent landmarks were selected in consultation with the emergency manager and community leaders. In addition, building footprints and heights were incorpo‐ rated within surrounding 1-km buffers of the landmarks from the county's GIS database and extruded in 3-D using ESRI ArcScene software. SLOSH MOMs were also incorporated and matched to the elevation datum used in Google Earth. All landmarks were evaluated for availability on the Google 3-D Community Warehouse so that users examining existing building models would see the correct objects. For each focal landmark, a visualization was created and included: 1) a 3-D ortho-perspective view for use as representative graphic in presentations and briefings; 2) prerecorded video for download or playback on the Internet (e.g., a Windows Media Player (.wmv) file or FLASH); and 3) an interactive, downloadable master Keyhole Markup Language (.kmz) file with embedded 3-D inundation, landmark and building objects. All data were organized into a library hosted on the RENCI SurgeViz 2010 website [29].

However, the placement error was only discovered later and took some months to correct. Additionally, very high spatial resolution aerial imagery in the Google Earth image database sometimes did not coincide with building footprints and surge data. In some cases, dynamic changes (e.g., dune construction or destruction) on the barrier island actually altered poten‐ tial surge patterns. In other cases, edges and misalignments between the aerial imagery and building data were revealed that may indicate that there was either geometric error in the aerial data or positioning error in the mapped buildings. Nonetheless, the graphics seldom failed to impress emergency managers and oftentimes generated requests for similar prod‐

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**Figure 5.** Screenshots of customized.kmz files with building footprint models, landmark 3-D buildings, and SLOSH MOM output storm surge inundation layers superimposed over Google imagery for a category 2 storm affecting the Outer Banks, North Carolina, (a) South Nags Head fire station, (b) US Coast Guard Oregon Inlet station, (c) Sam &

Omie's Restaurant at Whalebone Junction, South Nags Head, and (d) Cape Hatteras Lighthouse, Buxton.

ucts for other municipalities.

These products were used in diverse venues, displayed to different audiences and employed in several activities which enabled a qualitative evaluation of their utility. Presentations and interactive educational use was facilitated in public school presentations to elementary, mid‐ dle- and high school students on the Outer Banks to inform them of their local storm-surge potential. The library of graphics was compiled into a set of Microsoft Office Powerpoint slide presentations for use by emergency managers and forecasters for briefings and training exercises. These presentation graphics are organized by SLOSH MOM category and geogra‐ phy allowing for quick selection of appropriate surge levels and for specific sites during an emergency. Animations of short 3-D fly-throughs for each location and each MOM category provide snapshots of potential inundation regionally and are useful for risk communication. Finally, the interactive 3-D content of the.kmz files enabled public download and private ex‐ ploration. All of these products could also be used in hurricane exercises and drills, and in June 2010 each product was demonstrated in a mock "tabletop" exercise for the Dare Coun‐ ty Control Board using a hypothetical Hurricane Felix, a MOM category 2, fast-moving storm striking near the North Carolina-Virginia border. Each of these uses was deemed suc‐ cessful by their audiences (Figure 5).

Although qualitative successes of these geovisualization applications are difficult to quanti‐ fy, particularly in a real emergency, it is possible to identify several problems that occurred in their production and delivery. First, the integration of local building data, storm surges, Google imagery and elevation data created some asynchrony and error. For instance, a cus‐ tom building model in Sketchup was incorrectly located on the Google Imagery on a street opposite its true location. The model was submitted to the Google 3-D Warehouse and ac‐ cepted, eventually also appearing in Google's building database for Google Earth users. However, the placement error was only discovered later and took some months to correct. Additionally, very high spatial resolution aerial imagery in the Google Earth image database sometimes did not coincide with building footprints and surge data. In some cases, dynamic changes (e.g., dune construction or destruction) on the barrier island actually altered poten‐ tial surge patterns. In other cases, edges and misalignments between the aerial imagery and building data were revealed that may indicate that there was either geometric error in the aerial data or positioning error in the mapped buildings. Nonetheless, the graphics seldom failed to impress emergency managers and oftentimes generated requests for similar prod‐ ucts for other municipalities.

**4.2. Geovisualization**

2010 website [29].

cessful by their audiences (Figure 5).

An experimental program to visualize and communicate storm surge risk and raise aware‐ ness to the hazard prompted the development of 3-D models and a series of photorealistic, interactive, and animated geovisualizations. In cooperation with Dare County (North Caro‐ lina) Office of Emergency Management, the Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) East Carolina Engagement Center [28] developed 3-D building models using Google Sketchup software. Seventeen prominent landmarks were selected in consultation with the emergency manager and community leaders. In addition, building footprints and heights were incorpo‐ rated within surrounding 1-km buffers of the landmarks from the county's GIS database and extruded in 3-D using ESRI ArcScene software. SLOSH MOMs were also incorporated and matched to the elevation datum used in Google Earth. All landmarks were evaluated for availability on the Google 3-D Community Warehouse so that users examining existing building models would see the correct objects. For each focal landmark, a visualization was created and included: 1) a 3-D ortho-perspective view for use as representative graphic in presentations and briefings; 2) prerecorded video for download or playback on the Internet (e.g., a Windows Media Player (.wmv) file or FLASH); and 3) an interactive, downloadable master Keyhole Markup Language (.kmz) file with embedded 3-D inundation, landmark and building objects. All data were organized into a library hosted on the RENCI SurgeViz

118 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

These products were used in diverse venues, displayed to different audiences and employed in several activities which enabled a qualitative evaluation of their utility. Presentations and interactive educational use was facilitated in public school presentations to elementary, mid‐ dle- and high school students on the Outer Banks to inform them of their local storm-surge potential. The library of graphics was compiled into a set of Microsoft Office Powerpoint slide presentations for use by emergency managers and forecasters for briefings and training exercises. These presentation graphics are organized by SLOSH MOM category and geogra‐ phy allowing for quick selection of appropriate surge levels and for specific sites during an emergency. Animations of short 3-D fly-throughs for each location and each MOM category provide snapshots of potential inundation regionally and are useful for risk communication. Finally, the interactive 3-D content of the.kmz files enabled public download and private ex‐ ploration. All of these products could also be used in hurricane exercises and drills, and in June 2010 each product was demonstrated in a mock "tabletop" exercise for the Dare Coun‐ ty Control Board using a hypothetical Hurricane Felix, a MOM category 2, fast-moving storm striking near the North Carolina-Virginia border. Each of these uses was deemed suc‐

Although qualitative successes of these geovisualization applications are difficult to quanti‐ fy, particularly in a real emergency, it is possible to identify several problems that occurred in their production and delivery. First, the integration of local building data, storm surges, Google imagery and elevation data created some asynchrony and error. For instance, a cus‐ tom building model in Sketchup was incorrectly located on the Google Imagery on a street opposite its true location. The model was submitted to the Google 3-D Warehouse and ac‐ cepted, eventually also appearing in Google's building database for Google Earth users.

**Figure 5.** Screenshots of customized.kmz files with building footprint models, landmark 3-D buildings, and SLOSH MOM output storm surge inundation layers superimposed over Google imagery for a category 2 storm affecting the Outer Banks, North Carolina, (a) South Nags Head fire station, (b) US Coast Guard Oregon Inlet station, (c) Sam & Omie's Restaurant at Whalebone Junction, South Nags Head, and (d) Cape Hatteras Lighthouse, Buxton.

The static, apparently non-destructive impact of surges evident in the geovisualizations gen‐ erated suggestions for future improvements to reinforce that these are downscaled surge models and only approximations of potential worst-case scenarios of SLOSH MOMs. They may not occur at all of these locations and they also carry the limitations of the SLOSH mod‐ el with respect to accuracy and accurate portrayal of wave energy impacts. To scientifically and visually evaluate the potential error also found in the elevation data, a Monte Carlo er‐ ror model was also applied.

To further evaluate the technique for evaluating sensitivity of inundation confidence, the analysis applied variable transparency and shading to more precisely identify uncertain areas in the DEM in a low-lying shore area (Figure 7) and on a barrier island segment (Figure 8). The cumulative confidence of inundation for 30 simulations was calculated by tallying the number of runs that resulted in each cell being inundated. The cells were shaded in proportion to the number of simulations that produced flooding. Results of this symbolization allow more precise delineation of potential DEM error and flood vul‐ nerability. On the island, there seemed to be more inundation agreement, except in the boundaries around dunes and the upper beach berm zone. However, the zone of inunda‐ tion appearing over water (in the later orthophoto) also underscores the potential for temporal asynchrony (the DEM for Figure 8 is from 2002 whereas the aerial orthophoto is from 2010) or error. Beach erosion at this location is not reflected in either the DEM or

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**Figure 7.** Sensitivity analysis of DEM inundation potential for a category 2 SLOSH MOM surge in Manteo by tallying inundation of Monte Carlo simulation runs. Transparency and saturation are proportionately modulated to the num‐

Over most of the tested portions of Roanoke Island and Cape Hatteras, there is marginal spatial variation in the inundation area. However, some surprising patterns are evident where there is likely to be an underlying representation limit. In low-relief coastal plain landscapes and barrier islands, features such as salt marshes, shrub and maritime forests, canals and drainage ditches and narrow features such as dune crests impart variable ele‐ vation error, even in LiDAR DEMs, and these may restrict the accuracy of inundation

in the downscaling inundation model.

ber of model runs that predicted flooding.

#### **4.3. Monte Carlo error modeling**

The initial Monte Carlo simulation of error in the DEM focused on results around the Town of Manteo, Roanoke Island (Figure 6). Individual cells of the DEM were randomly perturbed by error following the Gaussian error distribution for +/-15 cm vertical error. For each new DEM, the downscaled SLOSH inundation model was run to delineate possible alternative inundation zones. The analysis reveals that in a minority of cases in the simulation, a de‐ pression in the study area is inundated (that is *not* delineated in the original DEM.) This re‐ sult prompted further analysis and exploration of cartographic representation.)

**Figure 6.** Prototype of Monte Carlo simulation analysis of inundation sensitivity, showing original storm surge inunda‐ tion model with existing 20-foot (6-m) DEM (hachures and bold boundary line) and iterative results from the pertur‐ bed error modeling in alternate color polylines for an intensive study area of the Town of Manteo, North Carolina. This shows 30 possible inundation zones, each is shown in a different color (and the original outline in bold with a hach‐ ured inundation zone). The dark tone area of the DEM at center illustrates a low zone, bisected by a major road, of low-lying ground that the current DEM does not inundate but that several runs of the Monte Carlo simulation found to be inundated.

To further evaluate the technique for evaluating sensitivity of inundation confidence, the analysis applied variable transparency and shading to more precisely identify uncertain areas in the DEM in a low-lying shore area (Figure 7) and on a barrier island segment (Figure 8). The cumulative confidence of inundation for 30 simulations was calculated by tallying the number of runs that resulted in each cell being inundated. The cells were shaded in proportion to the number of simulations that produced flooding. Results of this symbolization allow more precise delineation of potential DEM error and flood vul‐ nerability. On the island, there seemed to be more inundation agreement, except in the boundaries around dunes and the upper beach berm zone. However, the zone of inunda‐ tion appearing over water (in the later orthophoto) also underscores the potential for temporal asynchrony (the DEM for Figure 8 is from 2002 whereas the aerial orthophoto is from 2010) or error. Beach erosion at this location is not reflected in either the DEM or in the downscaling inundation model.

The static, apparently non-destructive impact of surges evident in the geovisualizations gen‐ erated suggestions for future improvements to reinforce that these are downscaled surge models and only approximations of potential worst-case scenarios of SLOSH MOMs. They may not occur at all of these locations and they also carry the limitations of the SLOSH mod‐ el with respect to accuracy and accurate portrayal of wave energy impacts. To scientifically and visually evaluate the potential error also found in the elevation data, a Monte Carlo er‐

120 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

The initial Monte Carlo simulation of error in the DEM focused on results around the Town of Manteo, Roanoke Island (Figure 6). Individual cells of the DEM were randomly perturbed by error following the Gaussian error distribution for +/-15 cm vertical error. For each new DEM, the downscaled SLOSH inundation model was run to delineate possible alternative inundation zones. The analysis reveals that in a minority of cases in the simulation, a de‐ pression in the study area is inundated (that is *not* delineated in the original DEM.) This re‐

**Figure 6.** Prototype of Monte Carlo simulation analysis of inundation sensitivity, showing original storm surge inunda‐ tion model with existing 20-foot (6-m) DEM (hachures and bold boundary line) and iterative results from the pertur‐ bed error modeling in alternate color polylines for an intensive study area of the Town of Manteo, North Carolina. This shows 30 possible inundation zones, each is shown in a different color (and the original outline in bold with a hach‐ ured inundation zone). The dark tone area of the DEM at center illustrates a low zone, bisected by a major road, of low-lying ground that the current DEM does not inundate but that several runs of the Monte Carlo simulation found

sult prompted further analysis and exploration of cartographic representation.)

ror model was also applied.

to be inundated.

**4.3. Monte Carlo error modeling**

**Figure 7.** Sensitivity analysis of DEM inundation potential for a category 2 SLOSH MOM surge in Manteo by tallying inundation of Monte Carlo simulation runs. Transparency and saturation are proportionately modulated to the num‐ ber of model runs that predicted flooding.

Over most of the tested portions of Roanoke Island and Cape Hatteras, there is marginal spatial variation in the inundation area. However, some surprising patterns are evident where there is likely to be an underlying representation limit. In low-relief coastal plain landscapes and barrier islands, features such as salt marshes, shrub and maritime forests, canals and drainage ditches and narrow features such as dune crests impart variable ele‐ vation error, even in LiDAR DEMs, and these may restrict the accuracy of inundation models of any kind. In our study area, one area exhibited a drastically different inunda‐ tion zonation in the simulation. In Manteo (Figure 7), an extensive area was predicted to flood in several simulation runs but not based on the original DEM. This highlights the need for future floodplain-delineation sensitivity research and a need to better under‐ stand downscaling and surge inundation modeling error to address the propagation of inherent versus processing error.

**Figure 9.** SLOSH model for Hurricane Irene with storm surge values flagged near ODU campus.

storm conditions (Figures 11 and 12).

ed by all surge forecasts.

The 2-D portrayal of LiDAR estimated inundation reveals the surge following the low top‐ ography of an historic creek through the middle of campus (Figure 10). Water backing up the tributary is forced overbank onto streets, in many instances using streets as flood chan‐ nels. Figure 10 also demonstrates the simultaneous, multivariate mapping of flood inunda‐ tion depth (level of water above the ground surface) and the heights of the bases of building, important for protecting facilities and planning for emergency services. Flooded streets and impediments to vehicular or pedestrian traffic are also incorporated into this cartography. Three-dimensional visualizations employing enhanced cartographic techniques were more instructive to emergency management personnel for visualization of potential high-flood

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Based upon the flood surfaces depicted in these visualizations, emergency management and facilities staff at the university were able to prioritize their efforts, spending time and resour‐ ces more effectively. Non-fixed assets in the two residence halls predicted to be most severe‐ ly impacted by flooding were relocated or elevated. Sand bags were deployed at critical seepage points for several structures. Several parking lots were also cleared based on the in‐ dication that they would experience flooding of 2 feet (0.6 m) or more. Ultimately, Irene weakened and turned towards the northwest as it passed through the Norfolk area, result‐ ing in flood heights of approximately 2 to 3 feet (0.6 to 0.9 m) which was lower than predict‐

With all storms, the amount of flooding depends on hurricane intensity, tidal phase, rainfall, wind-driven waves, storm speed and duration, prior precipitation, and other factors [21]. ODU and southeastern Virginia were fortunate, as the northeast quadrant of the storm which always has stronger winds and higher surge, moved off the coast rather than inland. Despite the discrepancy between predicted and actual flooding, ODU's modeling and visu‐ alization of Irene's surge potential are viewed as having been a valuable resource and is

now incorporated as standard operating procedure for future hurricanes.

**Figure 8.** Results for Monte Carlo error analysis for a SLOSH category 2 MOM surge potential for southern Hatteras Island.

#### **4.4. Hurricane Irene in Norfolk case study**

The SLOSH model was run using these inputs to create a modeled water surface for the op‐ erational analysis of impacts from Hurricane Irene (Figure 9). SLOSH model runs predicted a storm surge of approximately 6.4 feet (2 m), referenced to NGVD29 vertical datum. How‐ ever, the SLOSH model does not include precipitation, wave action, and the effects of tidal phases (spring/neap), each of which can have a significant impact on flooding. As Irene's landfall coincided with a spring tide and heavy rains were expected, 1.5 feet (0.5 m) of addi‐ tional urban flooding was added evenly across the modeled surface. A raster surface ap‐ proximating an 8-foot (2.4-m) water level was draped uniformly upon both 2-D and 3-D representations of ODU. Two-dimensional maps, graphics and GIS overlay-analysis proved valuable for determining the buildings and assets that required the most pre-storm interven‐ tion and flood-mitigation effort.

**Figure 9.** SLOSH model for Hurricane Irene with storm surge values flagged near ODU campus.

models of any kind. In our study area, one area exhibited a drastically different inunda‐ tion zonation in the simulation. In Manteo (Figure 7), an extensive area was predicted to flood in several simulation runs but not based on the original DEM. This highlights the need for future floodplain-delineation sensitivity research and a need to better under‐ stand downscaling and surge inundation modeling error to address the propagation of

122 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

**Figure 8.** Results for Monte Carlo error analysis for a SLOSH category 2 MOM surge potential for southern Hatteras

The SLOSH model was run using these inputs to create a modeled water surface for the op‐ erational analysis of impacts from Hurricane Irene (Figure 9). SLOSH model runs predicted a storm surge of approximately 6.4 feet (2 m), referenced to NGVD29 vertical datum. How‐ ever, the SLOSH model does not include precipitation, wave action, and the effects of tidal phases (spring/neap), each of which can have a significant impact on flooding. As Irene's landfall coincided with a spring tide and heavy rains were expected, 1.5 feet (0.5 m) of addi‐ tional urban flooding was added evenly across the modeled surface. A raster surface ap‐ proximating an 8-foot (2.4-m) water level was draped uniformly upon both 2-D and 3-D representations of ODU. Two-dimensional maps, graphics and GIS overlay-analysis proved valuable for determining the buildings and assets that required the most pre-storm interven‐

inherent versus processing error.

**4.4. Hurricane Irene in Norfolk case study**

tion and flood-mitigation effort.

Island.

The 2-D portrayal of LiDAR estimated inundation reveals the surge following the low top‐ ography of an historic creek through the middle of campus (Figure 10). Water backing up the tributary is forced overbank onto streets, in many instances using streets as flood chan‐ nels. Figure 10 also demonstrates the simultaneous, multivariate mapping of flood inunda‐ tion depth (level of water above the ground surface) and the heights of the bases of building, important for protecting facilities and planning for emergency services. Flooded streets and impediments to vehicular or pedestrian traffic are also incorporated into this cartography. Three-dimensional visualizations employing enhanced cartographic techniques were more instructive to emergency management personnel for visualization of potential high-flood storm conditions (Figures 11 and 12).

Based upon the flood surfaces depicted in these visualizations, emergency management and facilities staff at the university were able to prioritize their efforts, spending time and resour‐ ces more effectively. Non-fixed assets in the two residence halls predicted to be most severe‐ ly impacted by flooding were relocated or elevated. Sand bags were deployed at critical seepage points for several structures. Several parking lots were also cleared based on the in‐ dication that they would experience flooding of 2 feet (0.6 m) or more. Ultimately, Irene weakened and turned towards the northwest as it passed through the Norfolk area, result‐ ing in flood heights of approximately 2 to 3 feet (0.6 to 0.9 m) which was lower than predict‐ ed by all surge forecasts.

With all storms, the amount of flooding depends on hurricane intensity, tidal phase, rainfall, wind-driven waves, storm speed and duration, prior precipitation, and other factors [21]. ODU and southeastern Virginia were fortunate, as the northeast quadrant of the storm which always has stronger winds and higher surge, moved off the coast rather than inland. Despite the discrepancy between predicted and actual flooding, ODU's modeling and visu‐ alization of Irene's surge potential are viewed as having been a valuable resource and is now incorporated as standard operating procedure for future hurricanes.

**Figure 10.** Map of depths of flooding encroaching on campus from the Lafayette River based on maximum storm tide for SLOSH MEOW scenario for Hurricane Irene, with depths of inundation based on cell by cell calculation from LiDAR DEM data for high tide.

**Figure 12.** D ortho-perspective of Irene-generated flooding focused on ODU with 3-D building models extruded for

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This review and exploratory geovisualization research found variable results when compar‐ ing traditional coastal elevation to modern LiDAR DEM elevation and in residual fine-scale error in digital inundation models. Discrepancies in inundation predictions when using tra‐ ditional contour-based surge maps compared to contemporary digital LiDAR-based inunda‐ tion models were significant, highlighting the underestimation of potential surges in coarser coastal topographic data. Forecasters and emergency managers should be aware of their da‐ ta sources and the potential error in maps used to make decisions. Incorrect results are pro‐ duced not only by operational and observational errors in computer models but also by ignoring the errors inherent in elevation data sources. Future accuracy assessments should be made for downscaled inundation models to increase realistic representation of the extent of flooding. Even though the agreement of the areas of inundation produced by the two models is close to 95%, three main advantages of the more recent GIS-based model have been identified, all relate to model flexibility. The downscaling and fine-resolution error modeling of the Monte Carlo simulation methods also highlight the existence of error even in our modern, fine-scale LiDAR DEMs. Simulation runs showed that there is spatial varia‐ tion in DEM error that may propagate underestimates of areal flooding in surges. Thus, floodplain mapping and emergency managers should cautiously interpret single inundation models, as underlying error in fine-scale topographic features (a levee, for instance) could mask the potential in some likely to be surge-affected areas. Cartographic techniques such

perspective. Blue shades depict inundation depth (as described in Figure 5).

**5. Conclusion**

**Figure 11.** A 3-D ortho-perspective of Hurricane Irene maximum flooding at ODU campus. Map depicts inundation depth superimposed over 3-D buildings and orthophotography draped on a LiDAR DEM. View north toward Lafayette River at top and Elizabeth River at left. Inundated areas shown in blue shades connote inundation depths (as descri‐ bed in Figure 5). Building hues denote water level at first floor base height of building.

**Figure 12.** D ortho-perspective of Irene-generated flooding focused on ODU with 3-D building models extruded for perspective. Blue shades depict inundation depth (as described in Figure 5).

#### **5. Conclusion**

**Figure 10.** Map of depths of flooding encroaching on campus from the Lafayette River based on maximum storm tide for SLOSH MEOW scenario for Hurricane Irene, with depths of inundation based on cell by cell calculation from LiDAR

124 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

**Figure 11.** A 3-D ortho-perspective of Hurricane Irene maximum flooding at ODU campus. Map depicts inundation depth superimposed over 3-D buildings and orthophotography draped on a LiDAR DEM. View north toward Lafayette River at top and Elizabeth River at left. Inundated areas shown in blue shades connote inundation depths (as descri‐

bed in Figure 5). Building hues denote water level at first floor base height of building.

DEM data for high tide.

This review and exploratory geovisualization research found variable results when compar‐ ing traditional coastal elevation to modern LiDAR DEM elevation and in residual fine-scale error in digital inundation models. Discrepancies in inundation predictions when using tra‐ ditional contour-based surge maps compared to contemporary digital LiDAR-based inunda‐ tion models were significant, highlighting the underestimation of potential surges in coarser coastal topographic data. Forecasters and emergency managers should be aware of their da‐ ta sources and the potential error in maps used to make decisions. Incorrect results are pro‐ duced not only by operational and observational errors in computer models but also by ignoring the errors inherent in elevation data sources. Future accuracy assessments should be made for downscaled inundation models to increase realistic representation of the extent of flooding. Even though the agreement of the areas of inundation produced by the two models is close to 95%, three main advantages of the more recent GIS-based model have been identified, all relate to model flexibility. The downscaling and fine-resolution error modeling of the Monte Carlo simulation methods also highlight the existence of error even in our modern, fine-scale LiDAR DEMs. Simulation runs showed that there is spatial varia‐ tion in DEM error that may propagate underestimates of areal flooding in surges. Thus, floodplain mapping and emergency managers should cautiously interpret single inundation models, as underlying error in fine-scale topographic features (a levee, for instance) could mask the potential in some likely to be surge-affected areas. Cartographic techniques such as transparency and variable shading demonstrated in our chapter could also illuminate such weaknesses and errors in the DEMs or downscaled inundation model maps.

ers, and decision-makers must continue to collaborate in the development of scientific ap‐ proaches and robust tools to further refine and expand these advances for coastal disaster

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The authors are grateful for the collaboration of Mr. Sandy Sanderson, Emergency Manage‐ ment Coordinator, Dare County, North Carolina, and his suggestions of local landmarks for surge graphics selection and willingness to evaluate drafts of geovisual products. Graduate students Garrett Nelson and Suzanne McArdle provided outstanding creativity early in the project, and Nick Lee worked innumerable hours designing and improving 3-D building models in Sketchup and Google Earth. Rich Bandy of the NWS gave valuable input on the design of presentation materials for the library of surge graphics and exercise briefings. The project would not have been possible without the financial support of the Renaissance Com‐ puting Institute (RENCI) at UNC-Chapel Hill and Ken Galluppi's leadership of the disaster

and George McLeod3

management.

**6. Acknowledgements**

management research initiative.

, Stephen Sanchagrin2

1 Department of Geography, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC, USA

graphic Information Science. Boca Raton: CRC Press; 2008.

2 Program for Maritime Studies, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC, USA

3 Department of Ocean, Earth, & Atmospheric Sciences, Old Dominion University, Norfolk,

[1] Smith, G.M., Spencer, T., Möller, I. Visualization of coastal dynamics: Scolt Head Is‐ land, North Norfolk, England. Estuarine, Coastal, and Shelf Science 2000; 50 137-142.

[2] Yuan, M., Hornsby, K.S. Computation and Visualization for Understanding Dynam‐ ics in Geographic Domains: A Research Agenda, University Consortium for Geo‐

[3] Slocum, T., McMaster, R., Kessler, F.C., Howard, H.H. Thematic Cartography and

Geovisualization, Third edition, Upper Saddle River: Prentice Hall; 2009.

\*Address all correspondence to: allenth@ecu.edu

**Author details**

Thomas R. Allen1

VA, USA

**References**

In the event of an actual hurricane landfall, the SLOSH deterministic runs could be input to the model resulting in a more realistic representation, rather than using inundation zones generated by the SLOSH MOM output. Doing this would provide a clear advantage over a static, "worst case" scenario map, and would allow emergency managers to pinpoint areas and infrastructure that would be effected in the event of specific storm parameters and track. Another advantage of the GIS-based model is its easy incorporation of newly availa‐ ble elevation data. In addition, digital elevation models do not typically incorporate features such as ditches and water-control canals that can greatly alter the spatial patterns of inunda‐ tion, so DEM-processing techniques such as "stream burning" or "hydro-correction" to im‐ prove and enforce hydrologic representation in both runoff and inundation would help to improve the accuracy of surge visualizations.

This chapter also focused on the use of SLOSH model MEOW and MOM data for the timedelimited preparedness and response operations (particularly evacuation) of emergency management. In the future, the ability for modeling to produce a variety of inundation mod‐ el output will expand and reduce uncertainty. Experimental runs are being conducted to make use of output from the ADCIRC model, and these will be enhanced by improvement of storm-track and intensity forecasts within the closing hours of landfall. The ADCIRC model is better than the SLOSH model in many ways, but still has some of the same visuali‐ zation issues. In sum, the downscaling GIS SLOSH model produces results similar to previ‐ ous contouring and manual-digitizing techniques but has better accuracy and tends to not overgeneralize. Although Monte Carlo analysis of inundation variability using error model‐ ing suggests broad fidelity of inundation zones, there are still areas of moderate uncertainty. More work is needed to assess the accuracy of these downscaling models using actual storm data and hind-casting. Nonetheless, the GIS model has many advantages; they are primarily the model's flexible acceptance of inputs and its cartography. With more work, emergency managers and the public will be able to improve risk awareness and risk communication.

The array of geovisual products developed for education, public awareness, and emergency exercises have been welcomed by communities to whom they have been presented. Photore‐ alism and 3-D building models are demonstrably versatile, providing visual communication in static graphics, libraries of surge visualizations, animated fly-throughs, and interactive 3- D digital globe data (such as Google Earth). The algorithms to downscale and visualize SLOSH or other surge model forecasts at the neighborhood or finer scale have fulfilled a need in local emergency management. The ODU case study demonstrated the integration of surge forecast inundation, fine-scale orthophotography and cartographic symbolization of building planimetrics, and accessibility for operational use during an emergency. Such ap‐ plications require cautious and informed use of disparate data (meteorological, geospatial, and infrastructural). The spatial accuracy, scale, and temporal and physical uncertainties of a phenomenon as complex as storm surge suggest the need for advanced training and judi‐ cious exercising of the use of GIS and geovisualization. Hence, academics and practitioner communities comprising geographers, coastal modelers and engineers, emergency manag‐ ers, and decision-makers must continue to collaborate in the development of scientific ap‐ proaches and robust tools to further refine and expand these advances for coastal disaster management.

#### **6. Acknowledgements**

as transparency and variable shading demonstrated in our chapter could also illuminate

In the event of an actual hurricane landfall, the SLOSH deterministic runs could be input to the model resulting in a more realistic representation, rather than using inundation zones generated by the SLOSH MOM output. Doing this would provide a clear advantage over a static, "worst case" scenario map, and would allow emergency managers to pinpoint areas and infrastructure that would be effected in the event of specific storm parameters and track. Another advantage of the GIS-based model is its easy incorporation of newly availa‐ ble elevation data. In addition, digital elevation models do not typically incorporate features such as ditches and water-control canals that can greatly alter the spatial patterns of inunda‐ tion, so DEM-processing techniques such as "stream burning" or "hydro-correction" to im‐ prove and enforce hydrologic representation in both runoff and inundation would help to

This chapter also focused on the use of SLOSH model MEOW and MOM data for the timedelimited preparedness and response operations (particularly evacuation) of emergency management. In the future, the ability for modeling to produce a variety of inundation mod‐ el output will expand and reduce uncertainty. Experimental runs are being conducted to make use of output from the ADCIRC model, and these will be enhanced by improvement of storm-track and intensity forecasts within the closing hours of landfall. The ADCIRC model is better than the SLOSH model in many ways, but still has some of the same visuali‐ zation issues. In sum, the downscaling GIS SLOSH model produces results similar to previ‐ ous contouring and manual-digitizing techniques but has better accuracy and tends to not overgeneralize. Although Monte Carlo analysis of inundation variability using error model‐ ing suggests broad fidelity of inundation zones, there are still areas of moderate uncertainty. More work is needed to assess the accuracy of these downscaling models using actual storm data and hind-casting. Nonetheless, the GIS model has many advantages; they are primarily the model's flexible acceptance of inputs and its cartography. With more work, emergency managers and the public will be able to improve risk awareness and risk communication.

The array of geovisual products developed for education, public awareness, and emergency exercises have been welcomed by communities to whom they have been presented. Photore‐ alism and 3-D building models are demonstrably versatile, providing visual communication in static graphics, libraries of surge visualizations, animated fly-throughs, and interactive 3- D digital globe data (such as Google Earth). The algorithms to downscale and visualize SLOSH or other surge model forecasts at the neighborhood or finer scale have fulfilled a need in local emergency management. The ODU case study demonstrated the integration of surge forecast inundation, fine-scale orthophotography and cartographic symbolization of building planimetrics, and accessibility for operational use during an emergency. Such ap‐ plications require cautious and informed use of disparate data (meteorological, geospatial, and infrastructural). The spatial accuracy, scale, and temporal and physical uncertainties of a phenomenon as complex as storm surge suggest the need for advanced training and judi‐ cious exercising of the use of GIS and geovisualization. Hence, academics and practitioner communities comprising geographers, coastal modelers and engineers, emergency manag‐

such weaknesses and errors in the DEMs or downscaled inundation model maps.

126 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

improve the accuracy of surge visualizations.

The authors are grateful for the collaboration of Mr. Sandy Sanderson, Emergency Manage‐ ment Coordinator, Dare County, North Carolina, and his suggestions of local landmarks for surge graphics selection and willingness to evaluate drafts of geovisual products. Graduate students Garrett Nelson and Suzanne McArdle provided outstanding creativity early in the project, and Nick Lee worked innumerable hours designing and improving 3-D building models in Sketchup and Google Earth. Rich Bandy of the NWS gave valuable input on the design of presentation materials for the library of surge graphics and exercise briefings. The project would not have been possible without the financial support of the Renaissance Com‐ puting Institute (RENCI) at UNC-Chapel Hill and Ken Galluppi's leadership of the disaster management research initiative.

#### **Author details**

Thomas R. Allen1 , Stephen Sanchagrin2 and George McLeod3


3 Department of Ocean, Earth, & Atmospheric Sciences, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, USA

#### **References**


[4] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA: Mapping Coastal Inun‐ dation Primer. 2012. Charleston, SC: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

[19] NOAA National Weather Service (NWS). Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

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[20] Federal Emergency Management Agency, URS Consultants, US Army Corps of Engi‐ neers. Slosh Display Training Technical Manual. http://www.fema.gov/pdf/plan/ prevent/nhp/slosh\_display\_training.pdf September 2003. (accessed 15 September

[21] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Serv‐ ice (NWS), National Hurricane Center. Hurricane awareness: Storm surge. http:// www.nhe.noaa.gov/HAW2/engli.sh/storm\_surge.shtml (accessed 2 Aug 2012).

[22] Liu, H., Sherman, D., Gu, S. Automated extraction of shorelines from airborne light detection and ranging data and accuracy assessment based on Monte Carlo simula‐

[23] Avila, L.A., Cangialosi, A. Tropical Cyclone Report, Hurricane Irene, AL092011. NOAA National Hurricane Center. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/

[24] Kleinosky, L., Yarnal, B., Fisher, A. Vulnerability of Hampton Roads, Virginia to storm-surge flooding and sea-level rise. Natural Hazards 2007;40(1) 43-70.

[25] McFarlane, B.J. Climate Change in Hampton Roads - Phase II: Storm Surge Vulnera‐ bility and Public Outreach. Hampton Roads Planning District Commission

[26] Glahn, Taylor, Kurkowsi, Shaffer. 2009. The role of the SLOSH model in National Weather Service storm surge forecasting. National Weather Digest 2009; 33(1):3.

[27] Taylor, A., and Glahn, B., 2008: Probabilistic guidance for hurricane storm surge. Pre‐ prints, 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics, New Orleans, Louisiana, Amer‐

[28] Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) East Carolina University Engagement

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[5] Houston, S., Powell, M. Observed and modeled wind and water-level response from

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[7] Jelesnianski, C., Chen, J., Shaffer, W. 1992. NOAA Technical Report NWS 48: SLOSH: Sea Lake and Overland Surge from Hurricanes. Washington, D.C.: National Oceano‐

[8] Colle, B., Buonaiuto, F., Bowman, M., Wilson, R., Flood, R., Hunter, R., Mintz, A., Hill, D. New York City's vulnerability to coastal flooding. American Meteorological

[9] NOAA. CanVIS software. http://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/canvis (ac‐

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[11] Mattocks, C., Forbes, C. A real-time, event-triggered storm surge forecasting system

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[14] Pine, J.C., Mashriqui, H., Pedro, S., Meyer, J. Hazard mitigation planning using HA‐ ZUS-MH flood and wind hazards. Journal of Emergency Management 2005; 2:11-16.

[15] Jelesnianski, C., J. Chen, W. Shaffer, and A.D. Taylor. 2007. NOAA Sea Lake and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Storm Surge [CD-ROM]. Washington,

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Tropical Storm Marco (1990). Weather and Forecasting 1994; 9(3) 427-39.


**Chapter 6**

**The Role of Earthquake Information Management**

Iran, because of extent, geographical situation and climatic variety, is one of the disasterprone countries of the world. [1] Natural disasters, for example earthquake, are an unex‐ pected event that cause damage and destruction to human life and health, and the injured persons without others assistance are not able to meet their need. Earthquakes in Iran and neighboring regions (e.g., India, Turkey and Afghanistan) are closely connected to their position within the geologically active Alpine-Himalayan belt (Table 1). [2-5] Earthquake crises disrupt all daily affairs of society, such as economic activities, city services, communication systems and community services and public health. [6] An Earthquake Information Management System (EIMS) is a system that records, collects, keeps, retrieves and analyzes inputs, produces reports and required earthquake informa‐ tion (EI) and renders them to the right people and organizations to manage earthquake response activities. [7] EI is not an end in itself, but it helps to make better decisions in designing policies, response planning, management of disasters, monitoring and evaluat‐

Unfortunately, information systems in most countries are inadequate to provide the needed management support. Earthquake loss estimates are forecasts of damage as well as human and economics impacts that may result from future earthquakes. These estimates are based on current scientific and engineering knowledge. [9] The "earthquake loss estimation meth‐

> © 2013 Ajami; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,

© 2013 Ajami;, licensee InTech. This is a paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

**System to Reduce Destruction in Disasters with**

**Earthquake Approach**

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/53612

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

ing disaster programs and services, and reducing damages. [8]

Sima Ajami

**1. Introduction**

**2. Problem statement**

## **The Role of Earthquake Information Management System to Reduce Destruction in Disasters with Earthquake Approach**

Sima Ajami

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/53612

#### **1. Introduction**

Iran, because of extent, geographical situation and climatic variety, is one of the disasterprone countries of the world. [1] Natural disasters, for example earthquake, are an unex‐ pected event that cause damage and destruction to human life and health, and the injured persons without others assistance are not able to meet their need. Earthquakes in Iran and neighboring regions (e.g., India, Turkey and Afghanistan) are closely connected to their position within the geologically active Alpine-Himalayan belt (Table 1). [2-5] Earthquake crises disrupt all daily affairs of society, such as economic activities, city services, communication systems and community services and public health. [6] An Earthquake Information Management System (EIMS) is a system that records, collects, keeps, retrieves and analyzes inputs, produces reports and required earthquake informa‐ tion (EI) and renders them to the right people and organizations to manage earthquake response activities. [7] EI is not an end in itself, but it helps to make better decisions in designing policies, response planning, management of disasters, monitoring and evaluat‐ ing disaster programs and services, and reducing damages. [8]

#### **2. Problem statement**

Unfortunately, information systems in most countries are inadequate to provide the needed management support. Earthquake loss estimates are forecasts of damage as well as human and economics impacts that may result from future earthquakes. These estimates are based on current scientific and engineering knowledge. [9] The "earthquake loss estimation meth‐

© 2013 Ajami; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2013 Ajami;, licensee InTech. This is a paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

odology" is a system that uses mathematical formulae and information about building stock, local geology and the location and size of earthquake risk, economic data and other information to estimate losses from a potential earthquake. The EIMS uses ArcGIS (geo‐ graphical information system) to map and display ground shaking, the pattern of building damage and demographic information about a community. Once the location and size of a hypothetical earthquake are established, EIMS will estimate the distribution of the amounts of the following: ground shaking, buildings damaged, injured persons, damage to transpor‐ tation systems, disruption of electrical and water utilities, displacement of populations and cost of repair of likely damage. [10-13]

In this research, I seek to answer five important questions: When are EIMS useful? What are the essential substructures in an EIMS? What are the important functions of an EIMS? What are the steps taken to create an EIMS? and How is an EIMS used to prepare for earthquakes?

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133

In this study, the information management networks related to earthquakes in India, Af‐ ghanistan, Japan, and Turkey were compared to Iran to rationally determine the relative strength of the EIMS in each country. Their weaknesses and strengths were determined. And several recommendations and a model were developed to eliminate weaknesses, im‐ prove the efficiency of EIMS, reduce damages and losses and expedite relief to victims

This research is empirical and the study was an analytical comparison. The data consisted of the population of EIMS employed in India, Afghanistan, Japan, and Turkey and Iran. These countries were chosen because they are among the countries with the most experience with

To perform this study, I developed forms and questionnaires for data collection through interviews and observations. The forms were developed to define standard characteristics of an information management system by extracting guidelines from the Joint Commis‐ sion on Accreditation of Healthcare Organization (JCAHO), the American Health Infor‐ mation Management Association (AHIMA) and Canadian Council on Health Services Accreditation (CCHSA) [14] and synthesizing the information. The questionnaire was de‐ signed to acquire the opinions of experts to enable the weighting of each characteristic of an EIMS. In the first phase of data collection, the forms were validated and the question‐ naire was approved. Internet sources, professional personnel, documents, journals and books were consulted to develop the data which included EI sources, methods of record‐ ing, storing, retrieving, analyzing, interpreting, and distributing EI, national and interna‐ tional usage of EI, and so on. The Criteria Rating Technique [15] and the descriptive method were used to analyze findings. Standard characteristics of information manage‐

To compare the importance of the characteristics of EIMS, experts were asked to set weights (from 1, of low importance, to 10, of high importance) by brainstorm. The means of the experts' opinions of the weight of each criterion were calculated (Table 2 and 3). Ratings were established (ratio = weight of each criteria divided by sum) and scales (pos‐ itive = 4, moderate = 3, not access = 2, negative = 1) and scores (score = ratio\*scale) for

extreme events in Asia, and they all experience devastating earthquakes (Table 1).

**3. Aim**

after earthquakes.

**4. Methodology**

ment systems were selected as criteria.

selected countries were calculated.


**Table 1.** Deadliest earthquakes by year, 1995–2005

Estimation of losses from future earthquakes is essential for preparation for disasters and it facilitates better decision making at local, regional, provincial and national levels of govern‐ ment. An EIMS can estimate earthquake losses to support land-use planning and facility site decisions (e.g., a map-based analysis of the potential intensity of ground shaking from a postulated earthquake that identifies those parts of the community that will experience the most violent shaking and the buildings at greatest risk of damage); prioritization of retrofit or abatement programs (e.g., an estimate of building damage that provides the basis for es‐ tablishing programs to mitigate or strengthen buildings that may collapse in earthquakes by providing estimates of damages and casualties); regional, provincial and local emergency re‐ sponse and contingency planning (e.g., estimates of casualties and of damage to buildings and utilities); medical and relief agency preparedness and response (e.g., estimates of casu‐ alties and homelessness); and assistance planning. [11]

In this research, I seek to answer five important questions: When are EIMS useful? What are the essential substructures in an EIMS? What are the important functions of an EIMS? What are the steps taken to create an EIMS? and How is an EIMS used to prepare for earthquakes?

#### **3. Aim**

odology" is a system that uses mathematical formulae and information about building stock, local geology and the location and size of earthquake risk, economic data and other information to estimate losses from a potential earthquake. The EIMS uses ArcGIS (geo‐ graphical information system) to map and display ground shaking, the pattern of building damage and demographic information about a community. Once the location and size of a hypothetical earthquake are established, EIMS will estimate the distribution of the amounts of the following: ground shaking, buildings damaged, injured persons, damage to transpor‐ tation systems, disruption of electrical and water utilities, displacement of populations and

132 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

**Deadliest earthquake**

**Year Date Magnitude Fatalities Region**

2005 03/28 8.7 1313 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia 2004 12/26 9.0 283,106 Off the west coast of Northern Sumatra

2002 03/25 6.1 1000 Hindu Kush region, Afghanistan

2000 06/04 7.9 103 Southern Sumatera, Indonesia

1998 05/30 6.6 4000 Afghanistan–Tajikistan border region

Estimation of losses from future earthquakes is essential for preparation for disasters and it facilitates better decision making at local, regional, provincial and national levels of govern‐ ment. An EIMS can estimate earthquake losses to support land-use planning and facility site decisions (e.g., a map-based analysis of the potential intensity of ground shaking from a postulated earthquake that identifies those parts of the community that will experience the most violent shaking and the buildings at greatest risk of damage); prioritization of retrofit or abatement programs (e.g., an estimate of building damage that provides the basis for es‐ tablishing programs to mitigate or strengthen buildings that may collapse in earthquakes by providing estimates of damages and casualties); regional, provincial and local emergency re‐ sponse and contingency planning (e.g., estimates of casualties and of damage to buildings and utilities); medical and relief agency preparedness and response (e.g., estimates of casu‐

2003 12/26 6.6 31,000 Southeastern Iran

2001 01/26 7.7 20,023 India

1999 08/17 7.6 17,118 Turkey

1997 05/10 7.3 1572 Northern Iran 1996 02/03 6.6 322 Yunnan, China 1995 01/16 6.9 5530 Kobe, Japan

cost of repair of likely damage. [10-13]

**Table 1.** Deadliest earthquakes by year, 1995–2005

alties and homelessness); and assistance planning. [11]

In this study, the information management networks related to earthquakes in India, Af‐ ghanistan, Japan, and Turkey were compared to Iran to rationally determine the relative strength of the EIMS in each country. Their weaknesses and strengths were determined. And several recommendations and a model were developed to eliminate weaknesses, im‐ prove the efficiency of EIMS, reduce damages and losses and expedite relief to victims after earthquakes.

#### **4. Methodology**

This research is empirical and the study was an analytical comparison. The data consisted of the population of EIMS employed in India, Afghanistan, Japan, and Turkey and Iran. These countries were chosen because they are among the countries with the most experience with extreme events in Asia, and they all experience devastating earthquakes (Table 1).

To perform this study, I developed forms and questionnaires for data collection through interviews and observations. The forms were developed to define standard characteristics of an information management system by extracting guidelines from the Joint Commis‐ sion on Accreditation of Healthcare Organization (JCAHO), the American Health Infor‐ mation Management Association (AHIMA) and Canadian Council on Health Services Accreditation (CCHSA) [14] and synthesizing the information. The questionnaire was de‐ signed to acquire the opinions of experts to enable the weighting of each characteristic of an EIMS. In the first phase of data collection, the forms were validated and the question‐ naire was approved. Internet sources, professional personnel, documents, journals and books were consulted to develop the data which included EI sources, methods of record‐ ing, storing, retrieving, analyzing, interpreting, and distributing EI, national and interna‐ tional usage of EI, and so on. The Criteria Rating Technique [15] and the descriptive method were used to analyze findings. Standard characteristics of information manage‐ ment systems were selected as criteria.

To compare the importance of the characteristics of EIMS, experts were asked to set weights (from 1, of low importance, to 10, of high importance) by brainstorm. The means of the experts' opinions of the weight of each criterion were calculated (Table 2 and 3). Ratings were established (ratio = weight of each criteria divided by sum) and scales (pos‐ itive = 4, moderate = 3, not access = 2, negative = 1) and scores (score = ratio\*scale) for selected countries were calculated.


**5. Results**

swer is described briefly below.

tasks and functions of crisis management.

cation, capital and human resources.

The results of the data collection provide answers to the five research questions. Each an‐

The Role of Earthquake Information Management System to Reduce Destruction ...

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/53612

135

When are EIMS useful? There are four conditions that make EIMS more useful: when infor‐ mation users and addressers are specified; when time, form and the mechanism of informa‐ tion distribution are specified; when the EI is valid and reliable; and when there is fast access to EI. Furthermore, the data received are often not helpful for management decision making because they are incomplete, inaccurate, untimely and unrelated to the priority

What are the essential sub-structures of an EIMS? The information compiled and surveys in‐ dicate that the essential sub-structures that must be addressed or included in an EIMS are the nature of: crisis management, information technology, the geographic information sys‐ tem, the earthquake information system, mass media communication, cell phone communi‐

What are the important functions of an EIMS? This study finds that EIMS are needed: for fast and easy retrieval of information, which is very difficult; for extraction and access of in‐ formation for managers and related users; for integrating data from different sources; for re‐ duction of parallel and redundant activities by responding organizations; to decrease cost and time; for assessment and monitoring of plans before and after earthquakes; to identify training and function needs; and to formulate prevention, action and rehabilitation actions. What are the steps taken to create an EIMS? The following steps are usually taken: establish a joint commission of governmental and non-governmental sectors and organizations; deter‐ mine the primary participants in earthquake management; determine and formulate a plan for a system based on general principles and goals; identify the data needed for the system; identify the sources for the system's informatics; identify registration, collection and storage methods of and administrators for the system; determine the retrieval and analytical meth‐ ods of and administrators for the system; establish the information methods and distribute them to the administrators of the system; establish methods of systematic communication among the administrators; create a mechanism to render feedback for system improvement;

and ensure that the system and its plans and functions are dynamic and flexible.

How is an EIMS used to prepare for earthquakes? The first step in preparing for a disaster is estimate and assess its potential impact. These estimations and assessment can provide the basis for developing mitigation policy, developing and testing emergency preparedness and responsing for post-disaster, and reliefing negative outcomes. [16] Reducing earthquake loss begins before the earthquake. Loss estimates provide public and private sector agencies with a basis for planning, zoning, building codes and development regulations, and policy that would reduce the risk posed by violent ground shaking and ground failure. Loss esti‐ mates can also be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternative approaches to strengthening potentially hazardous structures. Preparing to respond, understanding the scope and complexity of earthquake damage is essential to effective preparedness. The EIMS

**Table 2.** The EIMS characteristics evaluating in selected countries


Earthquake Information= EI; Ratio = weight of each criteria/sum; Score = ratio\*scale

Scales: Positive = 4, moderate = 3, negative = 1, not access = 2

Range of ranks: 1–1.6: Very weak; 1.7–2.2: Weak; 2.3–2.8: Moderate; 2.9–3.4: Good; 3.5–4: Very good

**Table 3.** The EIMS characteristics evaluating in selected countries (continued)

### **5. Results**

**Criteria/country Weight Ratio India Afghanistan Iran**

134 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

1) Information sources are existed 8 0.11 4 0.44 4 0.44 3 0.33 2) Users of EI are specified 6 0.08 4 0.32 3 0.24 3 0.24 3) System has security process 6 0.08 4 0.32 2 0.16 2 0.16

9) EIMS has feedback 9 0.12 4 0.48 4 0.48 3 0.36 10) Accessibility of EI is easy and fast 8 0.11 4 0.44 3 0.33 1 0.11 Sum 73 1 4 3.3 2.32

1) Information sources are exist ed. 8 0.11 4 0.44 4 0.44 3 0.33 2) Users of E.I. are specified. 6 0.08 4 0.33 4 0.33 3 0.25 3) System has security process. 6 0.08 2 0.16 4 0.33 2 0.16

9) EIMS has feedback. 9 0.12 4 0.44 4 0.49 3 0.37 10) Accessibility of E.I. is easy and fast. 8 0.11 4 0.44 4 0.44 1 0.11 Sum 73 1 3.77 4 2.37

Earthquake Information= EI; Ratio = weight of each criteria/sum; Score = ratio\*scale

**Table 3.** The EIMS characteristics evaluating in selected countries (continued)

Range of ranks: 1–1.6: Very weak; 1.7–2.2: Weak; 2.3–2.8: Moderate; 2.9–3.4: Good; 3.5–4: Very good

Scales: Positive = 4, moderate = 3, negative = 1, not access = 2

**Criteria/country Weight Ratio Japan Turkey Iran**

4) EI is recorded and stored

5) EI is retrieved, analyzed and interpreted systematically

6) Administrators are specified in various

7) No parallel and repeated activities by

8) EI is distributed and used in national

**Table 2.** The EIMS characteristics evaluating in selected countries

systematically

functions

various organizations

and international levels

4) E.I. is recorded and stored

5) E.I. is retrieved, analyzed and interpreted systematically.

6) Administrators are specified in various

7) No parallel and repeated activities by

8) E.I. is distributed and used in national

systematically

functions.

various organizations.

& international levels.

**Scale Score Scale Score Scale Score**

**Scale Score Scale Score Scale Score**

7 0.09 4 0.36 4 0.36 1 0.09

9 0.12 4 0.48 2 0.24 3 0.36

9 0.12 4 0.48 4 0.48 3 0.36

5 0.07 4 0.28 4 0.28 1 0.07

6 0.08 4 0.32 4 0.32 3 0.24

7 0.09 4 0.38 4 0.38 1 0.09

9 0.12 4 0.49 4 0.49 3 0.37

9 0.12 4 0.49 4 0.49 3 0.37

5 0.07 4 0.27 4 0.27 1 0.07

6 0.08 4 0.33 4 0.33 3 0.25

The results of the data collection provide answers to the five research questions. Each an‐ swer is described briefly below.

When are EIMS useful? There are four conditions that make EIMS more useful: when infor‐ mation users and addressers are specified; when time, form and the mechanism of informa‐ tion distribution are specified; when the EI is valid and reliable; and when there is fast access to EI. Furthermore, the data received are often not helpful for management decision making because they are incomplete, inaccurate, untimely and unrelated to the priority tasks and functions of crisis management.

What are the essential sub-structures of an EIMS? The information compiled and surveys in‐ dicate that the essential sub-structures that must be addressed or included in an EIMS are the nature of: crisis management, information technology, the geographic information sys‐ tem, the earthquake information system, mass media communication, cell phone communi‐ cation, capital and human resources.

What are the important functions of an EIMS? This study finds that EIMS are needed: for fast and easy retrieval of information, which is very difficult; for extraction and access of in‐ formation for managers and related users; for integrating data from different sources; for re‐ duction of parallel and redundant activities by responding organizations; to decrease cost and time; for assessment and monitoring of plans before and after earthquakes; to identify training and function needs; and to formulate prevention, action and rehabilitation actions.

What are the steps taken to create an EIMS? The following steps are usually taken: establish a joint commission of governmental and non-governmental sectors and organizations; deter‐ mine the primary participants in earthquake management; determine and formulate a plan for a system based on general principles and goals; identify the data needed for the system; identify the sources for the system's informatics; identify registration, collection and storage methods of and administrators for the system; determine the retrieval and analytical meth‐ ods of and administrators for the system; establish the information methods and distribute them to the administrators of the system; establish methods of systematic communication among the administrators; create a mechanism to render feedback for system improvement; and ensure that the system and its plans and functions are dynamic and flexible.

How is an EIMS used to prepare for earthquakes? The first step in preparing for a disaster is estimate and assess its potential impact. These estimations and assessment can provide the basis for developing mitigation policy, developing and testing emergency preparedness and responsing for post-disaster, and reliefing negative outcomes. [16] Reducing earthquake loss begins before the earthquake. Loss estimates provide public and private sector agencies with a basis for planning, zoning, building codes and development regulations, and policy that would reduce the risk posed by violent ground shaking and ground failure. Loss esti‐ mates can also be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternative approaches to strengthening potentially hazardous structures. Preparing to respond, understanding the scope and complexity of earthquake damage is essential to effective preparedness. The EIMS can forecast damage to buildings, casualties and disruption of utilities. These estimates can serve as the basis for developing emergency response plans and for organizing tests and ex‐ ercises of response capability.

institutions across the world. All the information shared with us is accessible to all, except in cases in which the volunteer has chosen to limit access to the relevant authorities. [17-18]

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137

Our research reinforces the belief that Afghanistan possesses the potential for many natural disasters. Therefore, a DIMS, especially an EIMS, would be particularly helpful. Disaster management is a needs a wide variety of information, needs to track different locations and during different periods, and this information must have a set format in order that key staff can employ the information in decisions. A new project named "Management Information for Natural Disasters" (MIND) in Kabul and Kunduz provinces in Afghanistan has been op‐ erating since the beginning of 2012 and has been doing well for the last 8 months. Its goal was to establish and expand a crisis information management system. It is frequently updat‐ ed and provides information to governments. MIND has increased Afghanistan's crisis management capacity nationally, supporting the training of disaster managers and improv‐ ing city services by building governmental organizations in management information for natural disasters. Natural disaster management in these two provinces is primarily guided by estimates of damages which are used to direct rescue operations. There is currently no system to avoid or decrease disaster damages. Before and after a disaster, management is very weak in these countries and they are therefore dependent on the UN or NGOs for re‐ sponse. Information needed for the EIMS includes the availability and distribution of re‐ sponse personnel and spatial information stored in GIS to determine the areas of greatest destruction and locations of great danger. In this system, satellite data are crucial for identi‐ fication of crisis locations and understanding their distribution. [17,19] To record the infor‐ mation that is acquired, an Information System Unit is trained to input data and information and to manage stations of the informative system. The DIMS for earthquakes has tended to not be useful in many parts of the country primarily because of the lack of timely informa‐

The Japanese DIMS is called "PHOENIX" (Preement Hyogos Emergency Management Network for Disaster Information Exchange). [20] In this system, information about the amount and degree of earthquake damages and on-going developments of conditions in a disaster area are collected and processed. Information is provided by agencies, in‐ volved organizations, individuals (including those from governments, experts, volunteers and others), monitoring stations and other data sources employing several communica‐ tion methods (including the Internet, radio, print, televison and satellite). Recording and collecting earthquake information is centralize by informatics centers of local society of province. Japan's Red Cross, Rescue Team, NGOs, health organizations and others [21] do the estimating, calculating, and publishing of the information that is needed, and they

**7. EIMS in Afghanistan**

tion from disaster areas.

**8. EIMS in Japan**

#### **6. About EIMS**

Beginning in the late 1950s, planners began development and use of computerized models, planning information systems and decision-support systems to improve EI management performance. They have found tools to enhance their analytical and geospatial technologies which may be different from one country to another. The industrialized nations are well adapted to this information technology. They use it in many fields. Governments apply ur‐ ban information systems in all aspects of the planning process, including data collection, storage, data analysis and presentation, planning and policymaking, communication with the public, policy implementation and administration. The United States is the pioneer in this field. They began working with urban information systems in the 1970s. Canada and Australia have developed systems. And European countries like France, Germany and the Netherlands have been successful in applying these technologies. Turkey is a latecomer in this field because of financial constraints, their other priorities, a lack of technical expertise and different administrative mentalities. But today, the urban information system is a popu‐ lar notion among local governments in Turkey. The first initiative of local governments to use urban information systems was in the cities Bursa and Ayden beginning in the mid-1990s. Since then three other metropolitan municipalities, Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, studied the digitization of maps and plans and began to create inventories of their cities.

In India, findings showed that the Disaster Information Management System (DIMS) was launched by SRISTI. The SRISTI participated in relief and rehabilitation work in Kutch. However, their relief work suffered immensely due to lack of information and proper plan‐ ning. When answers to important questions that were cropping up were needed – for in‐ stance, whether there is a database on the distribution of available resources and expertise with individuals, institutions and corporations – SRISTI discovered the information wasn't available. This revealed the need for a system for disaster mitigation and for documenting the experiences of individuals and organizations, which might provide a knowledge data‐ base that can assist coordination in future disasters. Thus, SRISTI initiated an effort to build a "Disaster Management Information System." Through this initiative, the development of a database-driven information system for Disaster Management Authorities (DMA) in various states, NGOs and other organizations is underway. SRISTI appealed to NGOs, relief work‐ ers, DMAs and individuals to share their experiences and volunteer their services and re‐ sources to the online database maintained on the SRISTI website. The database currently contains information from more than a thousand volunteers who have offered their services and resources in times of emergency. About 700 organizations and institutions are indexed on the site, as are other resources and web links. The DMIS is a voluntary activity run with in kind contributions of time and services by SRISTI volunteers, NGOs and, above all, civil institutions across the world. All the information shared with us is accessible to all, except in cases in which the volunteer has chosen to limit access to the relevant authorities. [17-18]

#### **7. EIMS in Afghanistan**

can forecast damage to buildings, casualties and disruption of utilities. These estimates can serve as the basis for developing emergency response plans and for organizing tests and ex‐

136 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Beginning in the late 1950s, planners began development and use of computerized models, planning information systems and decision-support systems to improve EI management performance. They have found tools to enhance their analytical and geospatial technologies which may be different from one country to another. The industrialized nations are well adapted to this information technology. They use it in many fields. Governments apply ur‐ ban information systems in all aspects of the planning process, including data collection, storage, data analysis and presentation, planning and policymaking, communication with the public, policy implementation and administration. The United States is the pioneer in this field. They began working with urban information systems in the 1970s. Canada and Australia have developed systems. And European countries like France, Germany and the Netherlands have been successful in applying these technologies. Turkey is a latecomer in this field because of financial constraints, their other priorities, a lack of technical expertise and different administrative mentalities. But today, the urban information system is a popu‐ lar notion among local governments in Turkey. The first initiative of local governments to use urban information systems was in the cities Bursa and Ayden beginning in the mid-1990s. Since then three other metropolitan municipalities, Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, studied the digitization of maps and plans and began to create inventories of their cities.

In India, findings showed that the Disaster Information Management System (DIMS) was launched by SRISTI. The SRISTI participated in relief and rehabilitation work in Kutch. However, their relief work suffered immensely due to lack of information and proper plan‐ ning. When answers to important questions that were cropping up were needed – for in‐ stance, whether there is a database on the distribution of available resources and expertise with individuals, institutions and corporations – SRISTI discovered the information wasn't available. This revealed the need for a system for disaster mitigation and for documenting the experiences of individuals and organizations, which might provide a knowledge data‐ base that can assist coordination in future disasters. Thus, SRISTI initiated an effort to build a "Disaster Management Information System." Through this initiative, the development of a database-driven information system for Disaster Management Authorities (DMA) in various states, NGOs and other organizations is underway. SRISTI appealed to NGOs, relief work‐ ers, DMAs and individuals to share their experiences and volunteer their services and re‐ sources to the online database maintained on the SRISTI website. The database currently contains information from more than a thousand volunteers who have offered their services and resources in times of emergency. About 700 organizations and institutions are indexed on the site, as are other resources and web links. The DMIS is a voluntary activity run with in kind contributions of time and services by SRISTI volunteers, NGOs and, above all, civil

ercises of response capability.

**6. About EIMS**

Our research reinforces the belief that Afghanistan possesses the potential for many natural disasters. Therefore, a DIMS, especially an EIMS, would be particularly helpful. Disaster management is a needs a wide variety of information, needs to track different locations and during different periods, and this information must have a set format in order that key staff can employ the information in decisions. A new project named "Management Information for Natural Disasters" (MIND) in Kabul and Kunduz provinces in Afghanistan has been op‐ erating since the beginning of 2012 and has been doing well for the last 8 months. Its goal was to establish and expand a crisis information management system. It is frequently updat‐ ed and provides information to governments. MIND has increased Afghanistan's crisis management capacity nationally, supporting the training of disaster managers and improv‐ ing city services by building governmental organizations in management information for natural disasters. Natural disaster management in these two provinces is primarily guided by estimates of damages which are used to direct rescue operations. There is currently no system to avoid or decrease disaster damages. Before and after a disaster, management is very weak in these countries and they are therefore dependent on the UN or NGOs for re‐ sponse. Information needed for the EIMS includes the availability and distribution of re‐ sponse personnel and spatial information stored in GIS to determine the areas of greatest destruction and locations of great danger. In this system, satellite data are crucial for identi‐ fication of crisis locations and understanding their distribution. [17,19] To record the infor‐ mation that is acquired, an Information System Unit is trained to input data and information and to manage stations of the informative system. The DIMS for earthquakes has tended to not be useful in many parts of the country primarily because of the lack of timely informa‐ tion from disaster areas.

#### **8. EIMS in Japan**

The Japanese DIMS is called "PHOENIX" (Preement Hyogos Emergency Management Network for Disaster Information Exchange). [20] In this system, information about the amount and degree of earthquake damages and on-going developments of conditions in a disaster area are collected and processed. Information is provided by agencies, in‐ volved organizations, individuals (including those from governments, experts, volunteers and others), monitoring stations and other data sources employing several communica‐ tion methods (including the Internet, radio, print, televison and satellite). Recording and collecting earthquake information is centralize by informatics centers of local society of province. Japan's Red Cross, Rescue Team, NGOs, health organizations and others [21] do the estimating, calculating, and publishing of the information that is needed, and they send them to the relevant agencies. PHOENIX crisis management is designed for access and use by individuals, local communities and the national government. All satellite, land-based and atmospheric data will be transmitted over the Internet and displayed on local pages for Hyogo people. This system has been established for the entirety of Japan. [20] The Hygo Province crisis management network is directly supervised by the prime minister and his/her ministry. According to their documents, this system has been very successful. So it is expected that after they have completed their analysis, the system will be on-line for local, national and international users. [20]

spread, impacting many more people. [1] Despite the national approach, there is no official department called the "Department of Earthquake Information Management System." There is an EIMS. Information has been recorded by hand or using computers. Management of dis‐ asters has been done through the crisis office of the health ministry. All of the universities of Iran and the health minister are responsible for information management. This system is equipped to communicate information from crisis offices in the country's universities. After an earthquake, these units are prepared to produce up-to-date information (about hospitals, the Red Crescent Society, ambulances, facilities and other important resources) and report it to the crisis-control office. In universities, the crisis rooms are expected to report information as rapidly as possible. The EIMS in Iran tended to be incapable of reporting important infor‐ mation that was needed in advance of, during and after earthquakes. Defective, insufficient and inaccurate registration of data, declaration and publication of different and contradicto‐ ry population data and a lack of reliable information disabled the development of preventa‐ tive systemic planning. To make an EIMS work in Iran, we need to provide support for managers, and to do this, modified model of the EIMS should be designed. [1] The modified model includes information about: the responsible organizations, their functions, and the

The Role of Earthquake Information Management System to Reduce Destruction ...

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/53612

139

We offer a model that shows the relationships between organizations related to the EIMS in Iran (Figure 1). In this model, the responsibility and function of every organization is deter‐ mined. These duties are classified according to registration and collection of earthquake da‐ ta, the storage and processing of these data, and the analysis and distribution of information

The highest sum of scores of the effectiveness of EIMS are found in India and the lowest in Iran (Table 2 and 3). The weaknesses of EIMS are found in that: the EI stores system‐ atically, there are parallel and repeated activities by various organizations, and the access to the EI is not easy and nor fast, particularly in Iran's EIMS. In the range of ranks, Af‐ ghanistan's and India's systems were classified in the very good range and Iran's was in

The use of mass media is imperative for communicating news and information to the public. Responsible journalism can also help to clear up inaccurate rumors and to influence the pub‐ lic's attitude toward preparing for disasters. Moreover, press coverage of old disasters may provide good data to fill the gaps in circumstances where official records do not exist. How‐ ever, this study has revealed that the press has largely failed in terms of guidance toward disaster mitigation and preparedness. It seems that media are more interested in reporting disastrous news than informing the public of ways to avoid disasters. The Turkish media has been more influential in urging both the public and government officials to prepare for

the earthquakes. Television appears to be a more effective tool to achieve this. [23]

**11. Evaluating the effectiveness of EIMS design in each country**

work-flow that were reflected in the Delphi Technique.

and recommendations produced by the EIMS.

the moderate range. [17]

#### **9. EIMS in Turkey**

Our findings reveals that every governmental office in Turkey has begun development of electronic systems to meet their needs. Hence, e-government has become an important tool. As a result, the Turkish government has resolved to provide public services online in ac‐ cordance with EU targets. As a part of this process, the prime ministry of Turkey has chosen Istanbul as a pilot-project area where many complex governmental tasks are carried out. Turkey is situated in an extremely active seismic zone. Since Istanbul has been growing rap‐ idly without proper planning, great precautions should be taken to mitigate and prepare for future disasters. Therefore, Turkey has committed to build a natural disaster management information system immediately and it is called AFAYBIS. AFAYBIS is designed as a minor part of their e-Government system. It was based upon the information acquired in surveyes of government and private-sector data providers. The system will use geographical analysis to identify the regions with the greatest disaster potential. The project is also intended to quickly and effectively create a tool for management of response and relief during and after disasters. After an analysis of the current state of affairs was completed, the data and the data sources were identified. The system is designed as two parts: a database and a commu‐ nication system. The communications component is to constantly update data before disas‐ ters and to provide continuous supply of data. Consequently this disaster information system is designed according to the standards of the Turkish e-government, which is always intended to be up-to-date. The disaster management information system that has been de‐ veloped to solve this problem will result in optimum efficiency during disaster. This system contains the structure that determines its relationships to data and access to its information, disaster management communication, risk mitigation and disaster preparation, and postdisaster coordination of the prime minister, governors and other institutions. The services and duties of the institutions are also developed into the system so as to avoid modification of their existent organizational structures. [22] Earthquake management in Turkey, without exception, is a problem. It is unsystematic, unplanned, static and awareness of it is low.

#### **10. EIMS in Iran**

Disaster management systems are often designed because of the lack local management. Disasters are managed nationally in Iran and such management tends to cause disasters to spread, impacting many more people. [1] Despite the national approach, there is no official department called the "Department of Earthquake Information Management System." There is an EIMS. Information has been recorded by hand or using computers. Management of dis‐ asters has been done through the crisis office of the health ministry. All of the universities of Iran and the health minister are responsible for information management. This system is equipped to communicate information from crisis offices in the country's universities. After an earthquake, these units are prepared to produce up-to-date information (about hospitals, the Red Crescent Society, ambulances, facilities and other important resources) and report it to the crisis-control office. In universities, the crisis rooms are expected to report information as rapidly as possible. The EIMS in Iran tended to be incapable of reporting important infor‐ mation that was needed in advance of, during and after earthquakes. Defective, insufficient and inaccurate registration of data, declaration and publication of different and contradicto‐ ry population data and a lack of reliable information disabled the development of preventa‐ tive systemic planning. To make an EIMS work in Iran, we need to provide support for managers, and to do this, modified model of the EIMS should be designed. [1] The modified model includes information about: the responsible organizations, their functions, and the work-flow that were reflected in the Delphi Technique.

send them to the relevant agencies. PHOENIX crisis management is designed for access and use by individuals, local communities and the national government. All satellite, land-based and atmospheric data will be transmitted over the Internet and displayed on local pages for Hyogo people. This system has been established for the entirety of Japan. [20] The Hygo Province crisis management network is directly supervised by the prime minister and his/her ministry. According to their documents, this system has been very successful. So it is expected that after they have completed their analysis, the system will

138 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Our findings reveals that every governmental office in Turkey has begun development of electronic systems to meet their needs. Hence, e-government has become an important tool. As a result, the Turkish government has resolved to provide public services online in ac‐ cordance with EU targets. As a part of this process, the prime ministry of Turkey has chosen Istanbul as a pilot-project area where many complex governmental tasks are carried out. Turkey is situated in an extremely active seismic zone. Since Istanbul has been growing rap‐ idly without proper planning, great precautions should be taken to mitigate and prepare for future disasters. Therefore, Turkey has committed to build a natural disaster management information system immediately and it is called AFAYBIS. AFAYBIS is designed as a minor part of their e-Government system. It was based upon the information acquired in surveyes of government and private-sector data providers. The system will use geographical analysis to identify the regions with the greatest disaster potential. The project is also intended to quickly and effectively create a tool for management of response and relief during and after disasters. After an analysis of the current state of affairs was completed, the data and the data sources were identified. The system is designed as two parts: a database and a commu‐ nication system. The communications component is to constantly update data before disas‐ ters and to provide continuous supply of data. Consequently this disaster information system is designed according to the standards of the Turkish e-government, which is always intended to be up-to-date. The disaster management information system that has been de‐ veloped to solve this problem will result in optimum efficiency during disaster. This system contains the structure that determines its relationships to data and access to its information, disaster management communication, risk mitigation and disaster preparation, and postdisaster coordination of the prime minister, governors and other institutions. The services and duties of the institutions are also developed into the system so as to avoid modification of their existent organizational structures. [22] Earthquake management in Turkey, without exception, is a problem. It is unsystematic, unplanned, static and awareness of it is low.

Disaster management systems are often designed because of the lack local management. Disasters are managed nationally in Iran and such management tends to cause disasters to

be on-line for local, national and international users. [20]

**9. EIMS in Turkey**

**10. EIMS in Iran**

We offer a model that shows the relationships between organizations related to the EIMS in Iran (Figure 1). In this model, the responsibility and function of every organization is deter‐ mined. These duties are classified according to registration and collection of earthquake da‐ ta, the storage and processing of these data, and the analysis and distribution of information and recommendations produced by the EIMS.

#### **11. Evaluating the effectiveness of EIMS design in each country**

The highest sum of scores of the effectiveness of EIMS are found in India and the lowest in Iran (Table 2 and 3). The weaknesses of EIMS are found in that: the EI stores system‐ atically, there are parallel and repeated activities by various organizations, and the access to the EI is not easy and nor fast, particularly in Iran's EIMS. In the range of ranks, Af‐ ghanistan's and India's systems were classified in the very good range and Iran's was in the moderate range. [17]

The use of mass media is imperative for communicating news and information to the public. Responsible journalism can also help to clear up inaccurate rumors and to influence the pub‐ lic's attitude toward preparing for disasters. Moreover, press coverage of old disasters may provide good data to fill the gaps in circumstances where official records do not exist. How‐ ever, this study has revealed that the press has largely failed in terms of guidance toward disaster mitigation and preparedness. It seems that media are more interested in reporting disastrous news than informing the public of ways to avoid disasters. The Turkish media has been more influential in urging both the public and government officials to prepare for the earthquakes. Television appears to be a more effective tool to achieve this. [23]

prompt reports of the occurrence of large earthquakes and major seismic intensities caused by earthquakes within about 2 minutes after the earthquake; tsunami forecasts in around 3 minutes; expected arrival times and maximum heights of tsunami waves in around 5 mi‐ nutes; and location of the hypocenter and the magnitude of the earthquake, intensity at each observation station, times of high tides and the expected tsunami arrival times within 5–7 minutes. To issue the above information, JMA has established an advanced nationwide seis‐ mic network with about 180 stations for seismic-wave observation and about 3400 stations for instrumental seismic intensity observation, in addition to the approximately 2800 seismic

The Role of Earthquake Information Management System to Reduce Destruction ...

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/53612

141

The initial effort to systematically collect and analyze data in developing countries should be undertaken by national program managers. Based on our investigation of current earth‐ quake information management in India, Afghanistan and Iran, we can stress the need for further development of EIMS because of: the critical need for the information that must be gathered; a concern about continuous improvement of the data made available; its ability to help manage emergency response and relief in natural disasters (through more rapid availa‐ bility and retrieval in an EI); a need for timely reporting and feedback to managers; the need to analyze information and render reports that define strengths, weaknesses, threats and op‐ portunities; the need for monitoring the status of healthcare services and the needs of such services; the crucial need to coordinate activities between government and non-governmen‐ tal sectors through the EIMS; the need to reduce deaths and establish health priorities and planning to decrease mortality after future earthquakes; the ability to use the outcomes of crisis to determine the causes of earthquake mortalities and other problems in order to pre‐ vent future impacts; and the need to formulate strategies for disease prevention and to re‐

A rapid response to a damaging earthquake will reduce the loss of life, lessen the com‐ plications that stem from injuries and secondary damage, and expedite relief to victims. Reliable and up-to-date information can have an impact on the mitigation of risk and prevention of disaster. Because of the financial and human costs of disasters, the estab‐ lishment of a general, scientific and practical earthquake information management net‐

The author would like to thank Misses Z. Moradi, Mahshid Fattahi and N. Nematolahi for

intensity stations maintained by local governments. [24]

duce preventable deaths in earthquake zones.

work is desperately needed.

helping to fulfill this research.

**Acknowledgment**

**12. Conclusion**

**Figure 1.** The proposed model of EIMS that shows process of relationships between organizations related to EIMS in Iran

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) is responsible for producing EI and tsunami fore‐ casts and they have developed an earthquake notification system in Japan. At present, JMA issues the following kinds of information successively when a large earthquake occurs: prompt reports of the occurrence of large earthquakes and major seismic intensities caused by earthquakes within about 2 minutes after the earthquake; tsunami forecasts in around 3 minutes; expected arrival times and maximum heights of tsunami waves in around 5 mi‐ nutes; and location of the hypocenter and the magnitude of the earthquake, intensity at each observation station, times of high tides and the expected tsunami arrival times within 5–7 minutes. To issue the above information, JMA has established an advanced nationwide seis‐ mic network with about 180 stations for seismic-wave observation and about 3400 stations for instrumental seismic intensity observation, in addition to the approximately 2800 seismic intensity stations maintained by local governments. [24]

### **12. Conclusion**

The initial effort to systematically collect and analyze data in developing countries should be undertaken by national program managers. Based on our investigation of current earth‐ quake information management in India, Afghanistan and Iran, we can stress the need for further development of EIMS because of: the critical need for the information that must be gathered; a concern about continuous improvement of the data made available; its ability to help manage emergency response and relief in natural disasters (through more rapid availa‐ bility and retrieval in an EI); a need for timely reporting and feedback to managers; the need to analyze information and render reports that define strengths, weaknesses, threats and op‐ portunities; the need for monitoring the status of healthcare services and the needs of such services; the crucial need to coordinate activities between government and non-governmen‐ tal sectors through the EIMS; the need to reduce deaths and establish health priorities and planning to decrease mortality after future earthquakes; the ability to use the outcomes of crisis to determine the causes of earthquake mortalities and other problems in order to pre‐ vent future impacts; and the need to formulate strategies for disease prevention and to re‐ duce preventable deaths in earthquake zones.

A rapid response to a damaging earthquake will reduce the loss of life, lessen the com‐ plications that stem from injuries and secondary damage, and expedite relief to victims. Reliable and up-to-date information can have an impact on the mitigation of risk and prevention of disaster. Because of the financial and human costs of disasters, the estab‐ lishment of a general, scientific and practical earthquake information management net‐ work is desperately needed.

#### **Acknowledgment**

**Figure 1.** The proposed model of EIMS that shows process of relationships between organizations related to EIMS in Iran

140 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) is responsible for producing EI and tsunami fore‐ casts and they have developed an earthquake notification system in Japan. At present, JMA issues the following kinds of information successively when a large earthquake occurs:

The author would like to thank Misses Z. Moradi, Mahshid Fattahi and N. Nematolahi for helping to fulfill this research.

#### **Author details**

Sima Ajami

Address all correspondence to: ajami@mng.mui.ac.ir

Department of Health Information Technology, Health Management and Economics Re‐ search Centre, School of Medical Management and Information Sciences, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran

[10] Seeger MW, Sellnow TL, Ulmer RR. Communication and organizational crisis.

The Role of Earthquake Information Management System to Reduce Destruction ...

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[11] Kabirzadeh A. Disease control and prevention after natural disaster. In Proceeding of Natural Health and Management of Disaster Meeting, 2003 May 27-29, Tehran, Iran.

[12] Ajami S, Fatahi M, Moradi Z, Nematolahi N. An analysis studies on Earthquake In‐ formation Management Systems (EIMS) in Japan, Afghanistan and Iran and propos‐ ing a suitable model for Iran. In Proceeding of International Disaster Reduction Conference (IDRC), From 27 August to first of September 2006, Switzerland, Davos.

[13] Ajami S, Fatahi M, Moradi Z. Reduce destroys and rule of Earthquake Information Systems the Comparative study in Turkey, Afghanistan and Iran. In Proceeding of International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC, from August 25 to August 29,

[14] Ajami S, Tavakoli-Moghadam O. A Comparative Study on Health Information Man‐ agement System with Standards in Ayatolah-Kashani Hospital in Isfahan, Iran. Health Information Management; 2006;1(3): 63-7. http://him.mui.ac.ir/

[15] Chang R. Success through Teamwork: A Practical Guide to Interpersonal Team Dy‐ namics (High-Performance Team Series) (Paperback). Homa-ye-Salamat 2006;2:63-5.

[16] Ajami S, Fatahi M. The role of earthquake information management systems (EIMSs) in reducing destruction: A comparative study of Japan, Turkey and Iran. Disaster

[17] Ajami S. A comparative study on Earthquake Information Management Systems (EIMS) in India, Afghanistan and Iran. Journal of Education and Health Promotion

[18] Society for Research & Initiatives for Sustainable Technologies and Institutions Or‐ ganization (SRISTI). Disaster Management Information System' [online]. Available

[19] Afghanistan Information Management Service (AIMS) Project [United Nations De‐ velopment Program (UNDP)]. Information Management for Natural Disasters: Pilot Project for Kabul & Kunduz Province. 2005, Kabul and Kunduz Province. Afghani‐ stan. Available from: http:// www.aims.org.af/services/sectoral/d\_m/

[20] International Strategy for Disaster Reduction.Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters. Extract from the final report of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction, 18-22 January

from: http://www.sristi.org/dmis/dmi\_system. (accessed in 2009).

USA:Praeger; (accessed 11 April 2006).

In Persian

2008, Switzerland, Davos.

index.php/him/article/view/47.

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dmis\_for\_afg\_a\_p\_p.pdf.(accessed in 2005).

2005, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan.

[ in Persian].

2012;1:27.

#### **References**


[10] Seeger MW, Sellnow TL, Ulmer RR. Communication and organizational crisis. USA:Praeger; (accessed 11 April 2006).

**Author details**

Address all correspondence to: ajami@mng.mui.ac.ir

dad-n.html/(accessed 11 September 2012).

of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran

24–26, Tehran, Iran.

Department of Health Information Technology, Health Management and Economics Re‐ search Centre, School of Medical Management and Information Sciences, Isfahan University

142 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

[1] Bamdad N. The Role of Community Knowledge in Disaster Management: The Bam Earthquake Lesson in Iran. Institute of Management and Planning Studies, Tehran, Iran. Available from: http://www.engagingcommunities2005.org/abstracts/S93-bam‐

[2] Tavakoli N. Health information management in disaster' proceeding of second na‐ tional health and management disaster meeting, 2004 Nov 24–26, Tehran, Iran.

[3] Rastegari H, Ajami S. An overview of the management of a crisis. Health Information Management 2005;2(3):73-81. http://him.mui.ac.ir/index.php/him/article/view/28/26.

[4] Ajami S. The role of information management in rendering healthcare in disasters. In Proceeding of Second National Health and Management Disaster meeting, 2004 Nov

[5] The U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Hazards Program. Disaster Management In‐ formation System, fact sheet 04: Largest and Deadliest Earthquakes by Year 1990 –

[6] Division of International Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Epidemiology Program Office. Public Health Systems Development; Health Information Systems. [online]. United States. Availa‐

[7] Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province. Improvement of Earthquake disaster re‐ duction and early warning systems. [online]. PR, China. Available from: http://

[8] Lippeveld T, Sauerborn R, Bodart C. Design and implementation of health informa‐

[9] Rock ML. Effective crisis management planning: Creating a collaborative framework

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Sima Ajami

**References**


[21] International Strategy for Disaster Reduction.Hyogo Declaration. In proceeding of Conference on Disaster Reduction in Japan on 18\_22 January 2005, Extract from the final report of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction, 18-22 January 2005, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan.

**Section 3**

**Crisis Management and Disaster Recovery**


**Crisis Management and Disaster Recovery**

[21] International Strategy for Disaster Reduction.Hyogo Declaration. In proceeding of Conference on Disaster Reduction in Japan on 18\_22 January 2005, Extract from the final report of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction, 18-22 January 2005,

144 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

[22] Eraslan C, Alkis Z, Emem O, Helvac C, Batuk F, Gümüsay U. et al. System Design of Disaster Management Information System in Turkey as a Part of E-Goverment. Istan‐ bul, Turkey: Department of Geodesy and Photogrammetry; 2004. http://www.carte‐

[23] Dedeoglu N. Role of the Turkish news media in disaster preparedness. In Proceeding of International Disaster Reduction Conference (IDRC), From August 25 to August

[24] Doi K, Kato T. Real time Earthquake information system in Japan. American Geo‐

[25] Yaliner O. Description of Urban information system and emergency management concepts, examples in Turkey and in the World. In Partial Fulfillment of the Require‐ ments for the Degree of Master of Science in the Department of Geodetic and Geo‐ graphic Information Technologies a Thesis Submitted to the Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences of the Middle East Technical University, January 2002.

physical Union, Fall Meeting; 2003. Abstract # S21B-03-12/2003.

Kobe, Hyogo, Japan.

29, 2008. Switzerland, Davos.

sia.org/geodoc/isprs2004/comm2/papers/139.pdf.

**Chapter 7**

**Five Star Crisis Management — Examples of Best Practice**

The *background* for this study is in the complex and fragmented business environment of today when many organisations are interdependent from each other across the globe thus making it harder for companies to insulate themselves against a crisis event [1]. Furthermore, the media of today is ready to inform us of any critical events around the world at a moment's notice [2, 3]. The 'everyone can be a journalist' culture is encouraged by popular media requesting photographs and video footage from individuals currently caught in an unexpected chain of events. Today, words like 'crisis' and 'disaster' are featured in everyday vocabulary to grab attention, thus resulting in a depreciation of the actual meaning of this term. Overall, an

At the same time, there has been a plethora of international crisis demonstrating how fragile the business environment can be. The most cited crises have been caused by nature (e.g. tsunami, hurricanes, bushfires, floods or disease) or by man (e.g. terrorism and the current Economic Tsunami). In this environment, the Hotel Managers' duty of care should also involve planning and preparing for unforeseen events; running 'what if' scenarios, designing action plans for all departments, allocating individual responsibilities; building back-up capacity and training their staff to respond in appropriate manner to security concerns. Therefore, the *aim* of this paper is to highlight good procedures already prac‐ ticed by hotels participating in this study. The study *Methodology* consisted of in-depth interviews with Hotel Managers or Hotel Security Managers located in Hong Kong, London and Finland. Many of these hotels were associated with large multinational chains and the most of the interviewees had managed a variety of crises situation, often in contrasting

> © 2013 Niininen; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,

© 2013 Niininen; licensee InTech. This is a paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

**from the Hotel Industry**

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

atmosphere hungry for crisis has been created.

cultural or geographical locations.

Outi Niininen

**1. Introduction**

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/55209

### **Five Star Crisis Management — Examples of Best Practice from the Hotel Industry**

Outi Niininen

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/55209

#### **1. Introduction**

The *background* for this study is in the complex and fragmented business environment of today when many organisations are interdependent from each other across the globe thus making it harder for companies to insulate themselves against a crisis event [1]. Furthermore, the media of today is ready to inform us of any critical events around the world at a moment's notice [2, 3]. The 'everyone can be a journalist' culture is encouraged by popular media requesting photographs and video footage from individuals currently caught in an unexpected chain of events. Today, words like 'crisis' and 'disaster' are featured in everyday vocabulary to grab attention, thus resulting in a depreciation of the actual meaning of this term. Overall, an atmosphere hungry for crisis has been created.

At the same time, there has been a plethora of international crisis demonstrating how fragile the business environment can be. The most cited crises have been caused by nature (e.g. tsunami, hurricanes, bushfires, floods or disease) or by man (e.g. terrorism and the current Economic Tsunami). In this environment, the Hotel Managers' duty of care should also involve planning and preparing for unforeseen events; running 'what if' scenarios, designing action plans for all departments, allocating individual responsibilities; building back-up capacity and training their staff to respond in appropriate manner to security concerns. Therefore, the *aim* of this paper is to highlight good procedures already prac‐ ticed by hotels participating in this study. The study *Methodology* consisted of in-depth interviews with Hotel Managers or Hotel Security Managers located in Hong Kong, London and Finland. Many of these hotels were associated with large multinational chains and the most of the interviewees had managed a variety of crises situation, often in contrasting cultural or geographical locations.

© 2013 Niininen; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2013 Niininen; licensee InTech. This is a paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

This paper is set out in the following structure: the basic crisis management concepts are outlined and applied to the tourism (and hospitality) settings. This is followed by a brief outline of the methodology utilised. The findings/discussion section is structured to reflect the key practical tips offered by the interviewees: '*Being prepared for crisis situations'*; '*Managing costs during crisis*'; '*Make full use of local advice'*; '*Maintaining good communication with guests'* and how to '*Use technology to enhance hotel security'*.

(i.e. all individuals with the means and motive to travel are potential tourists). Thus the variety of psychological or social responses to unexpected events from the guests of an international hotel will challenge even the 'best laid [crisis] plans' as well as the communi‐ cations skills of experienced PR Managers to maintain calm [2]. Fourthly, since the consumption of a tourism product requires the customer to travel to a destination the demand for tourism products is sensitive to reports on security and health issues; and finally, many tourists are attracted to fragile locales particularly vulnerable to the forces of nature (e.g. tropical weather, proximity to sea and even seismic activity) or destination with low degree of infrastructure development (so called 'unspoilt' destinations) [5, 9-11].

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149

Moreover, tourism participation is a discretionary activity for most international travelers, many countries (or destinations) have invested heavily on new campaigns in order to acquire the misplaced inbound tourists or to generate alternative demand from domestic travelers [12, 13]. Therefore, in tourism industry, '… it is no longer a question whether [a crisis] will arise, but when and how it will be dealt with' [7] therefore hotels' crisis plans should be more generic in nature, thus offering personnel accepted behavioural protocols without attempting to script for every eventuality. The wide variety of potential crisis in the hospitality industry also

The findings in this paper are based on in-depth interviews conducted during October 2008. Non-probability sampling was used to select locations due to the range of past crisis events varying from financial crisis (e.g. current financial crisis worldwide and the financial crisis in Finland in the early nineties), health concerns (e.g. SARS reports linked to Hong Kong) to terrorism (e.g. the UK and London) reported in those locations. At each city, major stakeholders from educational institutions to trade associations were approached to request contact details for hotel managers willing to participate in research projects. Individual interview requests were made through e-mail and the final number of interviews conducted was 12 (three in Hong

Each respondent received the planned interview questions in advance together with background information for this study and the University research ethics procedures. Although General Managers were approached initially, in some cases the interview request was delegated to the Head of Hotel Security thus resulting in a mixture of nine Hotel Managers and three Hotel Security experts. Collectively, the respondents hold decades of crisis management experience across the world with focus on the hospitality industry as well as other segments of the security industry like Police or Fire departments. Naturally, the personal crisis experience of each person influenced the examples and policies highlight‐ ed by each individual thus making the data more rich. The 'default' identification for each

respondent was to code them by location e.g. 'Hotel A, HK' or 'Hotel K, UK' etc.

supports this argument.

**3. Methodology**

Kong; six in London and three in Helsinki).

#### **2. Crisis management**

Crisis management has its roots in strategic planning incorporating contingencies for unex‐ pected events. The challenge for organisations is to recognise the early 'warning signals' and take appropriate action. Crisis can be classified by several variables: *those resulting from internal actions of the company* vs. *trends taking place in the market place* or *changes in the immediate environment outside the organisation*. Another approach to crisis classification is: *the crisis that can be managed* vs. *crisis that manage us* [the organisation][3].

Generally speaking, crisis as an event is characterised by its unexpected nature inflicting severe impact on those involved. Moreover, a crisis typically demonstrates the characteristics of suddenness, uncertainty and time compression thus demanding immediate action from the manager – often the crisis management decision-making is also based on incomplete facts [4, 5]. How any of these challenges are managed can determine the magnitude of the impact a crisis will have on the organisation. Prompt and expertly dealings with a crisis situation and those affected by this crisis can also open new opportunities for future business success [6]. Unfortunately the crisis reported in the news today will inevitably result in some financial losses as well as human suffering. As a result some businesses will be closed or relocated. The cynics amongst us argue that the crisis simply brought forward what was inevitable and that a 'natural process of weeding out the weak' has taken place.

Regrettably crisis events are commonplace, [7] as organisations are regularly dealing with the pre-crisis; during-crisis or post-crisis issues thus highlighting the need for an early 'diagnosis and treatment' of a crisis to reduce the negative impact to the company. Moreover, a crisis can also be a chain of events that are impossible to control or plan for, thus resulting in 'death or significant injuries' to those involved, disrupt the business operations as well as damage to or destruction of company assets. In other words, a crisis situation turns 'business as normal' into impossibility [3, 6].

Tourism as an industry has many characteristics that can make a crisis more probable, magnify the impacts of a crisis and attract extreme media coverage for the event. Firstly, tourism is big business and often cited as the 'largest peacetime industry' [8] and tourism is also advocated as the industry offering sustainable (and quick yielding) development opportunities to the least developed countries. Secondly, the tourism industry is highly integrated with several other industries. In other words, the ripples of a crisis event from the hotels' supply chain can result in a flood of issues/problems for the business of providing hospitality [1]. Thirdly, the tourism industry is about the movement of people

(i.e. all individuals with the means and motive to travel are potential tourists). Thus the variety of psychological or social responses to unexpected events from the guests of an international hotel will challenge even the 'best laid [crisis] plans' as well as the communi‐ cations skills of experienced PR Managers to maintain calm [2]. Fourthly, since the consumption of a tourism product requires the customer to travel to a destination the demand for tourism products is sensitive to reports on security and health issues; and finally, many tourists are attracted to fragile locales particularly vulnerable to the forces of nature (e.g. tropical weather, proximity to sea and even seismic activity) or destination with low degree of infrastructure development (so called 'unspoilt' destinations) [5, 9-11].

Moreover, tourism participation is a discretionary activity for most international travelers, many countries (or destinations) have invested heavily on new campaigns in order to acquire the misplaced inbound tourists or to generate alternative demand from domestic travelers [12, 13]. Therefore, in tourism industry, '… it is no longer a question whether [a crisis] will arise, but when and how it will be dealt with' [7] therefore hotels' crisis plans should be more generic in nature, thus offering personnel accepted behavioural protocols without attempting to script for every eventuality. The wide variety of potential crisis in the hospitality industry also supports this argument.

#### **3. Methodology**

This paper is set out in the following structure: the basic crisis management concepts are outlined and applied to the tourism (and hospitality) settings. This is followed by a brief outline of the methodology utilised. The findings/discussion section is structured to reflect the key practical tips offered by the interviewees: '*Being prepared for crisis situations'*; '*Managing costs during crisis*'; '*Make full use of local advice'*; '*Maintaining good communication with guests'* and how

148 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Crisis management has its roots in strategic planning incorporating contingencies for unex‐ pected events. The challenge for organisations is to recognise the early 'warning signals' and take appropriate action. Crisis can be classified by several variables: *those resulting from internal actions of the company* vs. *trends taking place in the market place* or *changes in the immediate environment outside the organisation*. Another approach to crisis classification is: *the crisis that*

Generally speaking, crisis as an event is characterised by its unexpected nature inflicting severe impact on those involved. Moreover, a crisis typically demonstrates the characteristics of suddenness, uncertainty and time compression thus demanding immediate action from the manager – often the crisis management decision-making is also based on incomplete facts [4, 5]. How any of these challenges are managed can determine the magnitude of the impact a crisis will have on the organisation. Prompt and expertly dealings with a crisis situation and those affected by this crisis can also open new opportunities for future business success [6]. Unfortunately the crisis reported in the news today will inevitably result in some financial losses as well as human suffering. As a result some businesses will be closed or relocated. The cynics amongst us argue that the crisis simply brought forward what was inevitable and that

Regrettably crisis events are commonplace, [7] as organisations are regularly dealing with the pre-crisis; during-crisis or post-crisis issues thus highlighting the need for an early 'diagnosis and treatment' of a crisis to reduce the negative impact to the company. Moreover, a crisis can also be a chain of events that are impossible to control or plan for, thus resulting in 'death or significant injuries' to those involved, disrupt the business operations as well as damage to or destruction of company assets. In other words, a crisis situation turns 'business as normal' into

Tourism as an industry has many characteristics that can make a crisis more probable, magnify the impacts of a crisis and attract extreme media coverage for the event. Firstly, tourism is big business and often cited as the 'largest peacetime industry' [8] and tourism is also advocated as the industry offering sustainable (and quick yielding) development opportunities to the least developed countries. Secondly, the tourism industry is highly integrated with several other industries. In other words, the ripples of a crisis event from the hotels' supply chain can result in a flood of issues/problems for the business of providing hospitality [1]. Thirdly, the tourism industry is about the movement of people

to '*Use technology to enhance hotel security'*.

*can be managed* vs. *crisis that manage us* [the organisation][3].

a 'natural process of weeding out the weak' has taken place.

**2. Crisis management**

impossibility [3, 6].

The findings in this paper are based on in-depth interviews conducted during October 2008. Non-probability sampling was used to select locations due to the range of past crisis events varying from financial crisis (e.g. current financial crisis worldwide and the financial crisis in Finland in the early nineties), health concerns (e.g. SARS reports linked to Hong Kong) to terrorism (e.g. the UK and London) reported in those locations. At each city, major stakeholders from educational institutions to trade associations were approached to request contact details for hotel managers willing to participate in research projects. Individual interview requests were made through e-mail and the final number of interviews conducted was 12 (three in Hong Kong; six in London and three in Helsinki).

Each respondent received the planned interview questions in advance together with background information for this study and the University research ethics procedures. Although General Managers were approached initially, in some cases the interview request was delegated to the Head of Hotel Security thus resulting in a mixture of nine Hotel Managers and three Hotel Security experts. Collectively, the respondents hold decades of crisis management experience across the world with focus on the hospitality industry as well as other segments of the security industry like Police or Fire departments. Naturally, the personal crisis experience of each person influenced the examples and policies highlight‐ ed by each individual thus making the data more rich. The 'default' identification for each respondent was to code them by location e.g. 'Hotel A, HK' or 'Hotel K, UK' etc.

### **4. Findings and discussion**

The first observation during the data collection process was how well prepared all hotels interviewed were. Most interviewees arrived with their crisis management plans, in one incident; a major evacuation practice was due to take place later on the same day.

degree of security measures needed for mega events like the 2012 London Olympics (all London respondents) and offering hotel services to the top politicians in the EU or other VIP guests (Hotel E, Finland). In such instances the security protocols are set externally and specialist security personnel is provided by the event organisers. A more common request for additional security takes place when a corporate client uses the hotels conference facilities for a strategically significant meeting. In these situations public access to some parts of the hotel

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The day-to-day security operations included the 'secondary' security role assigned to most front line employees. This approach allows for a more discrete security operations and maintaining the appropriate quality of service. For example, the concierge limits the access to the hotel by suspicious individuals (Hotel D, Finland and Hotel L, UK) and front of house personnel diplomatically offering assistance to visitors who do not seem to be‐ long. Such helpful attention to visitors was also experienced by me as the 'out of place

Managing costs effectively during any crisis is probably the key to being able to remain in business during and after crisis, as any reduction in hotel occupancy rates will translate into a drop in the revenues. However, this cost saving exercise should be conducted in a way that allows the hotel to bounce back quickly once the demand for their services returns. For example, short term cost cutting can result in years of Good Will from all stakeholders disappearing, thus resulting in difficulty in securing supplies and recruiting personnel after the crisis is over. A key cost area for service industries is the payroll, therefore if substantial cost cutting is required to survive the current crisis. Therefore, the Hotel Manager will need to 'look for ways of reducing costs whilst maintaining their support to the staff' (Hotel C, HK). The labour cost and capacity can be reduced by asking volunteers to take vacation during crisis (Hotel B, HK) or by changing operating procedures (Hotel C, HK). Another response to a crisis

Moreover, a significant drop in demand and revenues due to a crisis will also require cutting costs in any area possible. For example, the supply costs for power and/or electricity can be managed by closing areas of the property; e.g. by closing a floor and concentrating the guests accommodation in dedicated areas will save power and allow for better utilisation of staff (Hotel B, HK). By concentrating the fewer visitors to specific areas can also help create the perception that the hotel is not badly hit by the current crisis situation, e.g. the worldwide economic crisis. And finally, a drop in demand and revenues should also prompt the Hotel Management to re-evaluate further investment plans. In conclusion, during a crisis event it is

The advice to 'make use of local advice' that is often also offered for free, was most frequently communicated by interviewees based in Finland and London. However, such observation

may be restricted (Hotel D, Finland).

**4.2. Managing costs during crisis**

event is to stop recruiting (Hotel G, UK).

important not to waste resources (Hotel G, UK).

**4.3. Make full use of local advice**

interviewer'.

The probability of incidents or crisis events taking place in a hotel increases with the volume of business and the size of the establishment; 'when the company [the hotel or the chain of hotels] provides thousands of bed nights every year, something is likely to happen'. One important contributor to hospitality industry incidents or crises are the guests or visitors to the property. The Hotel Manager can select their staff members and train them to respond to events in the desired way. Unfortunately, such luxury does not always exist with the visitors and guests. This is not to say that the visitors would be deliberately causing harm but the mixture of varying cultural norms, language barriers and lack of understanding of the prevailing condition can confuse the guests, thus causing an incident or making the crisis control extremely difficult for the hotel employees [2]. However, clever use of the *extended Marketing Mix* resulting in the market *positioning*, the *rates* charged as well as the *physical evidence* of the hotel can, on one hand, discourage segments that might not respond well to the guidance by the hotel employees. On the other hand, the *physical evidence* evident in a 5\* hotel can also have a surreal calming effect on visitors not used to such luxury and formality possibly resulting in the incidental visitor to 'be on their best behaviour'. Furthermore, policies like 'no Buck's nights' as well as good records of past visitors can also be used to discourage segments outside the hotel's target market.

The reported crises experienced by the respondents can be classified as internal (within their property) and external (outside their property). The internal crises varied from technical/ power failures to death of a hotel guest and the external crises varied from mass cancellation of hotel bookings due to the current financial crisis, to accidental or deliberate incidents of vehicles crashing into the hotel buildings (such deliberate damage to the hotel property and risking of human lives would be classified as terrorism) (Hotel A, HK).

All respondents referred to the Hotel Manager's responsibility for the well being and safety of staff and guests. In fact the Hotel Manager's *duty of care* was the most commonly cited expression across all interviews. Another conclusion from the data collected is that hotel security was often delegated to individuals who already had responsibility for Occupational Health and Safety (OHS). Furthermore, basic hotel security training was also cited to be part of the overall induction to new staff members (Hotel L, UK).

#### **4.1. Being prepared for crisis situations**

All respondents advocated the importance of being prepared for crisis situations and most respondents arrived to the interview with their Crisis Preparation Manuals. Furthermore, in one hotel, a crisis response practice was scheduled to take place shortly after the interview. The obvious/visual display of security measures (e.g. metal detectors at the entrance) is appropriate for specific target segments or situations only. The examples illustrated the varied degree of security measures needed for mega events like the 2012 London Olympics (all London respondents) and offering hotel services to the top politicians in the EU or other VIP guests (Hotel E, Finland). In such instances the security protocols are set externally and specialist security personnel is provided by the event organisers. A more common request for additional security takes place when a corporate client uses the hotels conference facilities for a strategically significant meeting. In these situations public access to some parts of the hotel may be restricted (Hotel D, Finland).

The day-to-day security operations included the 'secondary' security role assigned to most front line employees. This approach allows for a more discrete security operations and maintaining the appropriate quality of service. For example, the concierge limits the access to the hotel by suspicious individuals (Hotel D, Finland and Hotel L, UK) and front of house personnel diplomatically offering assistance to visitors who do not seem to be‐ long. Such helpful attention to visitors was also experienced by me as the 'out of place interviewer'.

#### **4.2. Managing costs during crisis**

**4. Findings and discussion**

outside the hotel's target market.

The first observation during the data collection process was how well prepared all hotels interviewed were. Most interviewees arrived with their crisis management plans, in one

The probability of incidents or crisis events taking place in a hotel increases with the volume of business and the size of the establishment; 'when the company [the hotel or the chain of hotels] provides thousands of bed nights every year, something is likely to happen'. One important contributor to hospitality industry incidents or crises are the guests or visitors to the property. The Hotel Manager can select their staff members and train them to respond to events in the desired way. Unfortunately, such luxury does not always exist with the visitors and guests. This is not to say that the visitors would be deliberately causing harm but the mixture of varying cultural norms, language barriers and lack of understanding of the prevailing condition can confuse the guests, thus causing an incident or making the crisis control extremely difficult for the hotel employees [2]. However, clever use of the *extended Marketing Mix* resulting in the market *positioning*, the *rates* charged as well as the *physical evidence* of the hotel can, on one hand, discourage segments that might not respond well to the guidance by the hotel employees. On the other hand, the *physical evidence* evident in a 5\* hotel can also have a surreal calming effect on visitors not used to such luxury and formality possibly resulting in the incidental visitor to 'be on their best behaviour'. Furthermore, policies like 'no Buck's nights' as well as good records of past visitors can also be used to discourage segments

The reported crises experienced by the respondents can be classified as internal (within their property) and external (outside their property). The internal crises varied from technical/ power failures to death of a hotel guest and the external crises varied from mass cancellation of hotel bookings due to the current financial crisis, to accidental or deliberate incidents of vehicles crashing into the hotel buildings (such deliberate damage to the hotel property and

All respondents referred to the Hotel Manager's responsibility for the well being and safety of staff and guests. In fact the Hotel Manager's *duty of care* was the most commonly cited expression across all interviews. Another conclusion from the data collected is that hotel security was often delegated to individuals who already had responsibility for Occupational Health and Safety (OHS). Furthermore, basic hotel security training was also cited to be part

All respondents advocated the importance of being prepared for crisis situations and most respondents arrived to the interview with their Crisis Preparation Manuals. Furthermore, in one hotel, a crisis response practice was scheduled to take place shortly after the interview. The obvious/visual display of security measures (e.g. metal detectors at the entrance) is appropriate for specific target segments or situations only. The examples illustrated the varied

risking of human lives would be classified as terrorism) (Hotel A, HK).

of the overall induction to new staff members (Hotel L, UK).

**4.1. Being prepared for crisis situations**

incident; a major evacuation practice was due to take place later on the same day.

150 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Managing costs effectively during any crisis is probably the key to being able to remain in business during and after crisis, as any reduction in hotel occupancy rates will translate into a drop in the revenues. However, this cost saving exercise should be conducted in a way that allows the hotel to bounce back quickly once the demand for their services returns. For example, short term cost cutting can result in years of Good Will from all stakeholders disappearing, thus resulting in difficulty in securing supplies and recruiting personnel after the crisis is over. A key cost area for service industries is the payroll, therefore if substantial cost cutting is required to survive the current crisis. Therefore, the Hotel Manager will need to 'look for ways of reducing costs whilst maintaining their support to the staff' (Hotel C, HK). The labour cost and capacity can be reduced by asking volunteers to take vacation during crisis (Hotel B, HK) or by changing operating procedures (Hotel C, HK). Another response to a crisis event is to stop recruiting (Hotel G, UK).

Moreover, a significant drop in demand and revenues due to a crisis will also require cutting costs in any area possible. For example, the supply costs for power and/or electricity can be managed by closing areas of the property; e.g. by closing a floor and concentrating the guests accommodation in dedicated areas will save power and allow for better utilisation of staff (Hotel B, HK). By concentrating the fewer visitors to specific areas can also help create the perception that the hotel is not badly hit by the current crisis situation, e.g. the worldwide economic crisis. And finally, a drop in demand and revenues should also prompt the Hotel Management to re-evaluate further investment plans. In conclusion, during a crisis event it is important not to waste resources (Hotel G, UK).

#### **4.3. Make full use of local advice**

The advice to 'make use of local advice' that is often also offered for free, was most frequently communicated by interviewees based in Finland and London. However, such observation could be purely incidental; e.g. in Finland only three respondents were interviewed, one of them had recent experience in providing accommodation for high ranking EU delegates (Hotel E, Finland); the London hotels were getting ready for the 2012 Olympics, and therefore, a greater collaboration between hotels and authorities is to be expected.

during their stay at the hotel (Hotel A, HK). For example, international news reports on poor air quality, polluted rivers or even faulty air-conditioning units near the hotel location could cause some negative word-of-mouth if the hotel is not able to demonstrate appropri‐

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Hotels also provide the venue and catering for different types of events. Such functions serve specialist menus to groups up to several hundred guests. The participants of these specialist events can continue their celebrations in various independent restaurants outside the hotel and may even conclude the night with a snack from a street vendor. A guest suffering from food poisoning might blame the hotel for their symptoms even when they are not able to identify all food items consumed during their celebrations. A hotel can eliminate false accusations of poor food hygiene by preserving/freezing a small sample of food prepared for a major banquet. If required, the hotel can get the preserved food samples analysed by an independent laboratory before accepting any liability (Hotel B, HK). Finally, the prevalence of food allergies today requires detailing and standardising the ingredients for every item on the

Technology can be used to enhance the overall hotel security and cameras in corridors as well as other public spaces are the norm today (Hotel D, Finland). Well positioned cameras and other visible security measures are welcomed by the guests as they increase the perception of security (Hotel I, UK). However, excessive use of cameras can give the impression of specific security problems on the premises (Hotel L, UK). Electronic key cards are also the norm today

Recording security cameras at key positions, alarms and motion sensors indicating unauthor‐ ised access, as well as digital monitoring of access to the premises, were nominated as common tools for maintaining hotel security. The hotels in Finland were already using external security agencies to monitor their alarms as well as patrol the premises (Hotel D). Some of the London

The Internet and e-mail were seen as a tool for enhancing the hotel security as well as a potential risk to the operations or the image of the hotel. The need for up-to-date firewalls to protect the hotels' computer networks was highlighted by some of the interviewees (e.g. Hotel D, Finland). Furthermore, the need to backup the data together with alternative communications channels outside the primary premises was also identified (e.g. Hotel B, HK; Hotel, UK). Moreover, licence plate readers were installed in the garage of one busy London hotel (Hotel L, UK). Finally, the collaboration between hotels and the police also involved e-mail alerts of scams targeting hotels complete with photographs of the suspects the hotels should look out for

Finally, many types of technology was utilised by all interviewees in maintaining the hotel security, and to some extent overt security measures facilitated by technology (e.g. electronic key cards, security cameras in public places) are now expected by the hotel guests. However,

and the CCTV is viewed invaluable in securing the hotel premises (Hotel K, UK).

based hotels were considering such an option as well (Hotel G).

ate duty of care through well maintained records.

**4.5. Use of technology to enhance hotel security**

menu (Hotel D, Finland).

(Hotel D in Finland; Hotel K, UK).

The type of free advice offered by local authorities (as well as other organisations) is determined by the location of the hotel. For example, the location of the hotel will determine the required building standards as well as the requirement for a formal rescue plan to be lodged with the authorities, the frequency of relevant safety inspections, and the extent to which the authorities are working with the hotels in a proactive manner (Hotel D, Finland).

Two of the London Interviewees made unprompted comments on how they 'welcomed the need for fire compliancy and regular inspections' since 'the fire certificate ensures compliance with fire safety'. Moreover, through a thorough crisis preparedness plan the hotels were also able to save in their insurance premiums (Hotel G, UK). Furthermore, 'regular fire inspections help hotels enhance/update their fire safety plans' (Hotel L, UK).

The closer links between the London Metropolitan Police and the hotels had also resulted in the Police issuing regular updates on specific criminal activities targeting hotels as well as fraudulent individuals to watch out for (Hotel L, UK). Finally, the time to develop positive relationships with authorities like the police or fire/rescue departments is during the quiet times, as good links to the authorities would be needed during crisis (e.g. Hotel L, UK; Hotel D, Finland).

#### **4.4. Maintaining good communication with guests**

In a large hotel good customer records are the basis for excellent customer relations. These records will allow the hotel to learn about their frequent guests and to keep their loyal customers (e.g. Hotel D in Finland). However, such inside knowledge should not be used to exhaust the guests with direct mail but rather preserve such communications for times when there is a need to attract business (Hotel L, UK). Furthermore, good guest history [and incident reports] also help dealing with complaints that may be received later.

Accurate record keeping should not be limited to the Customer Relations Department but be a standard across all the departments within the hotel. Moreover, all well documented procedures can also stop a minor incident from becoming a major crisis. For example, accurate temperature control in food preparation processes, maintenance work carried out, and even the details of deliveries taken, may be questioned months after the guest has departed. One Hong Kong based Hotel Manager (Hotel A) commented on guests from several months ago inquiring whether they had been served milk products sourced from China at any stage during their visit to the hotel. These guests had heard international news reports about contaminated baby milk in China and wanted to know if any food or beverages consumed in the hotel could have traces of such contaminated milk (for more on milk contamination in China please see [14] ). This example highlights the need of thorough record keeping across all departments within the hotel, as these files are needed to reply to a concerned guest whether they have been exposed to any external health risks during their stay at the hotel (Hotel A, HK). For example, international news reports on poor air quality, polluted rivers or even faulty air-conditioning units near the hotel location could cause some negative word-of-mouth if the hotel is not able to demonstrate appropri‐ ate duty of care through well maintained records.

Hotels also provide the venue and catering for different types of events. Such functions serve specialist menus to groups up to several hundred guests. The participants of these specialist events can continue their celebrations in various independent restaurants outside the hotel and may even conclude the night with a snack from a street vendor. A guest suffering from food poisoning might blame the hotel for their symptoms even when they are not able to identify all food items consumed during their celebrations. A hotel can eliminate false accusations of poor food hygiene by preserving/freezing a small sample of food prepared for a major banquet. If required, the hotel can get the preserved food samples analysed by an independent laboratory before accepting any liability (Hotel B, HK). Finally, the prevalence of food allergies today requires detailing and standardising the ingredients for every item on the menu (Hotel D, Finland).

#### **4.5. Use of technology to enhance hotel security**

could be purely incidental; e.g. in Finland only three respondents were interviewed, one of them had recent experience in providing accommodation for high ranking EU delegates (Hotel E, Finland); the London hotels were getting ready for the 2012 Olympics, and therefore, a

The type of free advice offered by local authorities (as well as other organisations) is determined by the location of the hotel. For example, the location of the hotel will determine the required building standards as well as the requirement for a formal rescue plan to be lodged with the authorities, the frequency of relevant safety inspections, and the extent to which the authorities are working with the hotels in a proactive manner (Hotel D, Finland). Two of the London Interviewees made unprompted comments on how they 'welcomed the need for fire compliancy and regular inspections' since 'the fire certificate ensures compliance with fire safety'. Moreover, through a thorough crisis preparedness plan the hotels were also able to save in their insurance premiums (Hotel G, UK). Furthermore, 'regular fire inspections

The closer links between the London Metropolitan Police and the hotels had also resulted in the Police issuing regular updates on specific criminal activities targeting hotels as well as fraudulent individuals to watch out for (Hotel L, UK). Finally, the time to develop positive relationships with authorities like the police or fire/rescue departments is during the quiet times, as good links to the authorities would be needed during crisis (e.g. Hotel L, UK; Hotel

In a large hotel good customer records are the basis for excellent customer relations. These records will allow the hotel to learn about their frequent guests and to keep their loyal customers (e.g. Hotel D in Finland). However, such inside knowledge should not be used to exhaust the guests with direct mail but rather preserve such communications for times when there is a need to attract business (Hotel L, UK). Furthermore, good guest history [and incident

Accurate record keeping should not be limited to the Customer Relations Department but be a standard across all the departments within the hotel. Moreover, all well documented procedures can also stop a minor incident from becoming a major crisis. For example, accurate temperature control in food preparation processes, maintenance work carried out, and even the details of deliveries taken, may be questioned months after the guest has departed. One Hong Kong based Hotel Manager (Hotel A) commented on guests from several months ago inquiring whether they had been served milk products sourced from China at any stage during their visit to the hotel. These guests had heard international news reports about contaminated baby milk in China and wanted to know if any food or beverages consumed in the hotel could have traces of such contaminated milk (for more on milk contamination in China please see [14] ). This example highlights the need of thorough record keeping across all departments within the hotel, as these files are needed to reply to a concerned guest whether they have been exposed to any external health risks

greater collaboration between hotels and authorities is to be expected.

152 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

help hotels enhance/update their fire safety plans' (Hotel L, UK).

reports] also help dealing with complaints that may be received later.

**4.4. Maintaining good communication with guests**

D, Finland).

Technology can be used to enhance the overall hotel security and cameras in corridors as well as other public spaces are the norm today (Hotel D, Finland). Well positioned cameras and other visible security measures are welcomed by the guests as they increase the perception of security (Hotel I, UK). However, excessive use of cameras can give the impression of specific security problems on the premises (Hotel L, UK). Electronic key cards are also the norm today and the CCTV is viewed invaluable in securing the hotel premises (Hotel K, UK).

Recording security cameras at key positions, alarms and motion sensors indicating unauthor‐ ised access, as well as digital monitoring of access to the premises, were nominated as common tools for maintaining hotel security. The hotels in Finland were already using external security agencies to monitor their alarms as well as patrol the premises (Hotel D). Some of the London based hotels were considering such an option as well (Hotel G).

The Internet and e-mail were seen as a tool for enhancing the hotel security as well as a potential risk to the operations or the image of the hotel. The need for up-to-date firewalls to protect the hotels' computer networks was highlighted by some of the interviewees (e.g. Hotel D, Finland). Furthermore, the need to backup the data together with alternative communications channels outside the primary premises was also identified (e.g. Hotel B, HK; Hotel, UK). Moreover, licence plate readers were installed in the garage of one busy London hotel (Hotel L, UK). Finally, the collaboration between hotels and the police also involved e-mail alerts of scams targeting hotels complete with photographs of the suspects the hotels should look out for (Hotel D in Finland; Hotel K, UK).

Finally, many types of technology was utilised by all interviewees in maintaining the hotel security, and to some extent overt security measures facilitated by technology (e.g. electronic key cards, security cameras in public places) are now expected by the hotel guests. However, the underlying guideline for the use of technology in hotels was the need to 'protect the privacy of our guest' (Hotels H and L, UK),

**References**

169-181.

46-50.

411-419.

(2006). , 69-85.

ing, (2004). , 238-251.

4.

[1] Corey, C. M, & Deitch, E. A. Factors Affecting Business Recovery Immediately after Hurricane Katrina. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, (2011). ,

Five Star Crisis Management — Examples of Best Practice from the Hotel Industry

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155

[2] Wester, M. Fight, Flight or Freeze: Assumed Reactions of the Public During a Crisis.

[3] Laufer, D. Charting a Course Through Crisis. BizEd (2010). September/ October): ,

[4] Stafford, G, & Yu, L. and Kobina Armoo, A Crisis management and Recovery, How Washington, DE., Hotels Responded to Terrorism. Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Ad‐

[5] Irvine, W. a. A. A.R., The impacts of Foot and Mouth Disease on peripherial tourism area: The role and effect of crisis management. Journal of Travel and Tourism Mar‐

[6] Kash, T. J. a. D. J.R, Crisis management: prevention, diagnosis and intervention.

[7] Henderson, J. a. N. A., Responding to crisis: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and hotels in Singapore. International Journal of Tourism Research, (2004). ,

[8] Tarlow, P. (2006). Issues in health, safety and security. e-Review of Tourism Research

[9] Mckercher, B. a. P. R., Privation as a stimulus to travel demand? Journal of Travel

[10] Méheux, K, & Parker, E. Tourist sector perceptions of natural hazards in Vanuatu and the implications for a small island developing state. Tourism Management,

[11] Cioccio, L, & Michael, E. J. Hazard or disaster: Tourism management for the inevita‐

[12] Fall, L. T. The increasing role of public relations as a crisis management function: An empirical examination of communication restrategizing efforts among destination or‐ ganization managers in the wake of 11th September 2001. Journal of Vacation Market‐

[13] Stanbury, J, & Pryer, M. and Roberts, A Heroes and Villains- Tour operator and me‐ dia response to crisis: An exploration of press handling strategies by UK adventure

ble in Northeast Victoria. Tourism Management, (2007). , 1-11.

tour operators. Current Issues in Tourism, (2005). , 27-40.

[14] AnonChina say milk contamination under control. (2008). ABC.

Leadership and Organization Development Journal, (1998). , 179-186.

Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, (2011). p. no-no.

ministration Quarterly, (2002). , 27-40.

and Tourism Marketing, (2005). , 107-116.

keting, (2005). , 47-60.

#### **5. Conclusions**

The main contribution from this study is the accumulation of practical advice that all Hotel Managers can utilize, regarding of the size of their hotel. The practical advice offered by the participants of this study is based on accumulation of decades hotel management experience across the globe. The findings from these interviews can be grouped under the following headings: *Being prepared for crisis situations*; *Managing costs during crisis*; *Make full use of local advice*; *Maintaining good communication with guests*; and the *Use of technology to enhance hotel security*. The need to offer high levels of service, local collaboration as well as the secondary security related responsibilities of all existing staff were another overlapping theme through‐ out the interviews.

The findings of this study could be presented as a benchmark for good practice for crisis prevention in large international hotels. The examples cited by the interviewees covered crisis situations from small accidents to terrorism or accidental death within the premises.

The limitations of this study are, therefore, outcome of the limited resources (time and funding for data collection) and the bias towards large, international hotels. The timing of the data collection also coincided with the Economic Tsunami of 2008 where the signs for economic slowdown were already evident (reduced advance bookings, lower than usual occupancy rations as well as the cancellations of large bookings).

The conclusion of this paper should also cite two quotes reflecting the many years of crisis management experience by the Interviewees: 'every cloud has a silver lining' (Hotel K, UK) and that hotels can 'come out of crisis stronger' (Hotel I, UK)

#### **Acknowledgements**

This study was funded by La Trobe University Outside Studies Programme

#### **Author details**

Outi Niininen\*

Address all correspondence to: o.niininen@latrobe.edu.au

Senior Lecturer in Marketing, LaTrobe Business School, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Vic‐ toria, Australia

#### **References**

the underlying guideline for the use of technology in hotels was the need to 'protect the privacy

154 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

The main contribution from this study is the accumulation of practical advice that all Hotel Managers can utilize, regarding of the size of their hotel. The practical advice offered by the participants of this study is based on accumulation of decades hotel management experience across the globe. The findings from these interviews can be grouped under the following headings: *Being prepared for crisis situations*; *Managing costs during crisis*; *Make full use of local advice*; *Maintaining good communication with guests*; and the *Use of technology to enhance hotel security*. The need to offer high levels of service, local collaboration as well as the secondary security related responsibilities of all existing staff were another overlapping theme through‐

The findings of this study could be presented as a benchmark for good practice for crisis prevention in large international hotels. The examples cited by the interviewees covered crisis

The limitations of this study are, therefore, outcome of the limited resources (time and funding for data collection) and the bias towards large, international hotels. The timing of the data collection also coincided with the Economic Tsunami of 2008 where the signs for economic slowdown were already evident (reduced advance bookings, lower than usual occupancy

The conclusion of this paper should also cite two quotes reflecting the many years of crisis management experience by the Interviewees: 'every cloud has a silver lining' (Hotel K, UK)

Senior Lecturer in Marketing, LaTrobe Business School, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Vic‐

situations from small accidents to terrorism or accidental death within the premises.

rations as well as the cancellations of large bookings).

and that hotels can 'come out of crisis stronger' (Hotel I, UK)

Address all correspondence to: o.niininen@latrobe.edu.au

This study was funded by La Trobe University Outside Studies Programme

of our guest' (Hotels H and L, UK),

**5. Conclusions**

out the interviews.

**Acknowledgements**

**Author details**

Outi Niininen\*

toria, Australia


**Chapter 8**

**Learning from Lisbon: Contemporary Cities in**

Cities survive earthquakes and rebuild with improved urban strategies, architectural de‐ signs and building technologies. This chapter will present a detailed analysis of the re‐ sponse, recovery, planning and rebuilding processes after the Lisbon earthquake and compare them to the recent events in Christchurch, New Zealand. Archival research from libraries and museums in Portugal will inform the historical analysis, and interviews and of‐ ficial documents from New Zealand relief and reconstruction agencies will underpin the contemporary analysis. The study aims to identify opportunities and challenges in facilitat‐ ing good urban design in the process of recovering from a natural disaster, using case stud‐ ies which are separated by over 250 years, but which both attest to the centrality of urban

This section will look at the Lisbon earthquake and its aftermath, with a view to understand‐ ing how design, leadership and governance processes contributed to the production of an 18th century, state-of-the-art urban quarter in the wake of a national tragedy. Particular at‐ tention will be paid to the coincidence of enlightened political, economic and technical skills which were judiciously applied to the re-planning of the city. By many counts the thinking was modern, and bears a worthwhile comparison to the recent seismic events in Christ‐

> © 2013 Brand and Nicholson; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

© 2013 Brand and Nicholson; licensee InTech. This is a paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,

distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

church, which will be the subject of the second part of the chapter.

**the Aftermath of Natural Disasters**

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

Diane Brand and Hugh Nicholson

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/53635

design in the reconstruction process.

**1. Introduction**

**2. Lisbon 1755**

### **Learning from Lisbon: Contemporary Cities in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters**

Diane Brand and Hugh Nicholson

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/53635

#### **1. Introduction**

Cities survive earthquakes and rebuild with improved urban strategies, architectural de‐ signs and building technologies. This chapter will present a detailed analysis of the re‐ sponse, recovery, planning and rebuilding processes after the Lisbon earthquake and compare them to the recent events in Christchurch, New Zealand. Archival research from libraries and museums in Portugal will inform the historical analysis, and interviews and of‐ ficial documents from New Zealand relief and reconstruction agencies will underpin the contemporary analysis. The study aims to identify opportunities and challenges in facilitat‐ ing good urban design in the process of recovering from a natural disaster, using case stud‐ ies which are separated by over 250 years, but which both attest to the centrality of urban design in the reconstruction process.

#### **2. Lisbon 1755**

This section will look at the Lisbon earthquake and its aftermath, with a view to understand‐ ing how design, leadership and governance processes contributed to the production of an 18th century, state-of-the-art urban quarter in the wake of a national tragedy. Particular at‐ tention will be paid to the coincidence of enlightened political, economic and technical skills which were judiciously applied to the re-planning of the city. By many counts the thinking was modern, and bears a worthwhile comparison to the recent seismic events in Christ‐ church, which will be the subject of the second part of the chapter.

© 2013 Brand and Nicholson; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2013 Brand and Nicholson; licensee InTech. This is a paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

#### **3. The event**

.

An estimated 8.4 magnitude earthquake in Lisbon on the morning of All Saints' Day in 1755 reverberated throughout the Iberian Peninsula, Madeira, the Azores, and North Africa. Tsu‐ namis affected the Caribbean and the Atlantic coasts of Europe [1]. Of a population of 250,000, up to 20,000 people perished in the quake, tsunami and fires that followed [2]:

leadership during the crisis. In a swift and articulate response to the emergency, the city was immediately surveyed and new construction was prohibited. Looters were publicly hung and able-bodied deserters were prevented from leaving the city and pressed into relief work by the army. Monasteries and public squares were filled with the homeless, and tent cities occupied by merchants and nobles sprouted (King José I and his family occupied an exten‐ sive tent and pavilion court in the hills of Ajúda at the edge of Lisbon for some months after the earthquake). Pombal moved about the city directing the recovery operation from his mo‐

Learning from Lisbon: Contemporary Cities in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/53635

159

What followed in the next two years was the ruthless and all-encompassing implementation of a radical plan which would change the political landscape and dramatically improve Por‐ tugal's economic position in Europe. The Terreiro do Paço (Figure 1) or Palace Square, had evolved as an elongated, spatially contained, urban space at the edge of the Tagus River in association with the Ribeiro Palace. In the wake of the earthquake the space was reconfig‐ ured, along with the adjacent central Baixa district, as the Praça do Comércio, a formal axial square surrounded by monumental public edifices where the business of an empire could be

Pombal's previous roles as political envoy to London and Vienna and Minister of Foreign Affairs and War (1750-1756), where he oversaw town planting in Brazil, had seen him devel‐ op sophisticated ideas on mercantilist economic reform and coherent town planning. In the reconstruction of Lisbon's heart he found the perfect vehicle for both. The aim was to create a modern political centre where commerce could thrive. He had, in his ministerial role, over‐ seen the dismantling of the Portuguese inquisition, the secularisation of education, and the nationalisation of industry [5]. He therefore favoured an institutional shift away from the old nobility (whom he considered corrupt and impractical) and the Jesuits, to the city's com‐ mercial elites who had helped finance the reconstruction. A strategically timed and imple‐ mented legal re-configuration of property ownership in the Baixa, transferred land from the aristocracy and ecclesiastic authorities to emerging merchant elites, whose collective eco‐ nomic enterprise would eventually succeed in rebuilding Portugal's indigenous economy. The waterfront square was edged with public buildings, which encompassed business, city government, and customs and exchange, in an effort to stimulate local trade and industry, and reverse high local unemployment levels and the traditional dominance of foreign mer‐

Urban renewal in the aftermath of the earthquake was appropriate for other reasons. Portu‐ gal had entered an era of nation-building with the consolidation of her borders in in 13th and 14th centuries. By the 16th century, Lisbon's image and role as the capital of a nation and a vast empire stretching from Angola to Macau was considered important, and urban embel‐ lishment was funded by gold and diamonds from Brazil. During the reign of King João V significant new urban projects were planned in the west of the city to boost the capital's sta‐ tus. The Águas Livres Aquaduct in 1728 is the best example of a new project that combined the provision of infrastructure with urban-scaled monumentality. Other projects included the construction of the vast and extravagant convent -palace at Mafra, the interior embellish‐

bile headquarters a carriage which he had commandeered from the royal family.

effectively conducted.

chants.

At this moment the earth shook, the sea rose up foaming in the harbour and dashed to pieces the ships lying at anchor. The streets and squares were filled with whirling masses of flame and cinders. The houses collapsed the roofs crashing down on shattered foundations. Thirty thousand inhabitants were crushed beneath the ruins [3]

Aid came from Portugal's colonies and her allies and trading partners England, Germany and Holland. Strategically, local merchants donated a 4% surcharge on imports to the relief effort which gave them critical political influence in determining new land uses for the re‐ construction [4].

**Figure 1.** Panoramas of Lisbon before the 1755 earthquake [various authors] Museu da Cidade de Lisboa

#### **4. Recovery: A vision of economic and political reform**

The man in charge of the reconstruction effort, the Minister of State (1756-1777), Sebastião José de Carvalho e Melo, was decisive and commanding in his response to the disaster, relief and the forward planning of the city and his leadership in the crisis cemented his political power over his adversaries until the death of his supporter King José I in 1777. The King would make him the Marquis of Pombal 15 years after the earthquake in recognition of his leadership during the crisis. In a swift and articulate response to the emergency, the city was immediately surveyed and new construction was prohibited. Looters were publicly hung and able-bodied deserters were prevented from leaving the city and pressed into relief work by the army. Monasteries and public squares were filled with the homeless, and tent cities occupied by merchants and nobles sprouted (King José I and his family occupied an exten‐ sive tent and pavilion court in the hills of Ajúda at the edge of Lisbon for some months after the earthquake). Pombal moved about the city directing the recovery operation from his mo‐ bile headquarters a carriage which he had commandeered from the royal family.

**3. The event**

construction [4].

.

An estimated 8.4 magnitude earthquake in Lisbon on the morning of All Saints' Day in 1755 reverberated throughout the Iberian Peninsula, Madeira, the Azores, and North Africa. Tsu‐ namis affected the Caribbean and the Atlantic coasts of Europe [1]. Of a population of 250,000, up to 20,000 people perished in the quake, tsunami and fires that followed [2]:

158 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

At this moment the earth shook, the sea rose up foaming in the harbour and dashed to pieces the ships lying at anchor. The streets and squares were filled with whirling masses of flame and cinders. The houses collapsed the roofs crashing down on shattered foundations.

Aid came from Portugal's colonies and her allies and trading partners England, Germany and Holland. Strategically, local merchants donated a 4% surcharge on imports to the relief effort which gave them critical political influence in determining new land uses for the re‐

**Figure 1.** Panoramas of Lisbon before the 1755 earthquake [various authors] Museu da Cidade de Lisboa

The man in charge of the reconstruction effort, the Minister of State (1756-1777), Sebastião José de Carvalho e Melo, was decisive and commanding in his response to the disaster, relief and the forward planning of the city and his leadership in the crisis cemented his political power over his adversaries until the death of his supporter King José I in 1777. The King would make him the Marquis of Pombal 15 years after the earthquake in recognition of his

**4. Recovery: A vision of economic and political reform**

Thirty thousand inhabitants were crushed beneath the ruins [3]

What followed in the next two years was the ruthless and all-encompassing implementation of a radical plan which would change the political landscape and dramatically improve Por‐ tugal's economic position in Europe. The Terreiro do Paço (Figure 1) or Palace Square, had evolved as an elongated, spatially contained, urban space at the edge of the Tagus River in association with the Ribeiro Palace. In the wake of the earthquake the space was reconfig‐ ured, along with the adjacent central Baixa district, as the Praça do Comércio, a formal axial square surrounded by monumental public edifices where the business of an empire could be effectively conducted.

Pombal's previous roles as political envoy to London and Vienna and Minister of Foreign Affairs and War (1750-1756), where he oversaw town planting in Brazil, had seen him devel‐ op sophisticated ideas on mercantilist economic reform and coherent town planning. In the reconstruction of Lisbon's heart he found the perfect vehicle for both. The aim was to create a modern political centre where commerce could thrive. He had, in his ministerial role, over‐ seen the dismantling of the Portuguese inquisition, the secularisation of education, and the nationalisation of industry [5]. He therefore favoured an institutional shift away from the old nobility (whom he considered corrupt and impractical) and the Jesuits, to the city's com‐ mercial elites who had helped finance the reconstruction. A strategically timed and imple‐ mented legal re-configuration of property ownership in the Baixa, transferred land from the aristocracy and ecclesiastic authorities to emerging merchant elites, whose collective eco‐ nomic enterprise would eventually succeed in rebuilding Portugal's indigenous economy. The waterfront square was edged with public buildings, which encompassed business, city government, and customs and exchange, in an effort to stimulate local trade and industry, and reverse high local unemployment levels and the traditional dominance of foreign mer‐ chants.

Urban renewal in the aftermath of the earthquake was appropriate for other reasons. Portu‐ gal had entered an era of nation-building with the consolidation of her borders in in 13th and 14th centuries. By the 16th century, Lisbon's image and role as the capital of a nation and a vast empire stretching from Angola to Macau was considered important, and urban embel‐ lishment was funded by gold and diamonds from Brazil. During the reign of King João V significant new urban projects were planned in the west of the city to boost the capital's sta‐ tus. The Águas Livres Aquaduct in 1728 is the best example of a new project that combined the provision of infrastructure with urban-scaled monumentality. Other projects included the construction of the vast and extravagant convent -palace at Mafra, the interior embellish‐ ment of 65 medieval and baroque churches and the building of dozens of new places of wor‐ ship in the neoclassical style.

the field as well as state of the art scientific knowledge. Their training via an apprenticeship system at the University Coimbra, represented a productive intersection of the knowledge embodied in foreign treatises such as those of Alberti and Vitruvius, and the real world they

Learning from Lisbon: Contemporary Cities in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/53635

161

Their approach to the built environment appears to privilege the site-specific adaptation of useful typologies, while giving a high priority to public space and infrastructure (especially port infrastructure, given that so many of the Portuguese colonial settlements and *feitórias* (trading posts) were coastal)[12]. Their sensitivity to the scale differential between the city and the building via a unified architectural language is a notable aspect of the Lisbon plan. Many of the best military personnel were in Lisbon at the time of the earthquake, and others joined them for the special mission of rebuilding the capital. Their designs were infused with the utopian‐ ism of the Portuguese school of the rational and civic-minded town planning demonstrated in

In 1910, cavalry officer Christovam Sepúlveda published Manuel da Maya e os Engenheiros Militares Portuguêses no Terromoto de 1755 (Manuel da Maya and the Portuguese Military Engineers in the 1755 Earthquake) [14] which identified Maia's central role as the strategist in the planning and rebuilding exercise. Jacôme Ratton [15] identifies military architect Eu‐

Sepúlveda highlights two important aspects of the organisational culture of the military engineers. The first was their adherence to hierarchy, discipline and teamwork in military operations and the second was the heavy investment they made in strategic planning. Maia's role in executing both these practices is evident in the terms of reference for the re‐ construction that were which embodied in the Dissertacão and other critical supporting official documents published in the late 1750s. Manuel da Maia's 1755 Dissertacão [16] de‐ scribes the strategic solution for the rebuilding of Lisbon after the 1755 disaster. In addi‐ tion to emphasising leadership, Sepúlveda deemed the teamwork, training and field experience of this group of elite military engineers in the colonial realm as essential prep‐

There was ample regional and local precedent for disaster recovery as earthquakes had plagued Lisbon since its founding. A seismic event on the 26th of January 1531 had struck the city with equal force, but produced a far less acute political reaction due to the rela‐ tive social stability at the time [17]. The Portuguese had certainly benefited from the study of other disasters such as the 1666 fire of London and the numerous volcanic events of in Sicily, particularly those affecting the city of Catania. Maia had been involved for many years in surveying and engineering projects around Lisbon, and this formed the basis of his knowledge to reconstruct the city. Critically he had been involved in the surveying and building of the Main Fortification Line in 1716, the Águas Livres Aquaduct, between 1720 and 1730, and the Santa Isabel survey in the 1740s. This deep knowledge of the ter‐ rain subsequently allowed him to swiftly prepare the alternative plans. He authored the Dissertacão which described the methods and processes leading up to the publication of

génio dos Santos as the person who formulated the principles of the reconstruction.

encountered in their active service.

aration for the task.

the 1756 plan (Figure 2).

new world cities such as Goa, Rio, Macapà and Luanda [13].

More significantly, Enlightenment-thinking from Northern Europe opened up the possibil‐ ity of a scientific explanation for disaster rather than a religious one, rendering reconstruc‐ tion a rational rather than a superstitious exercise, while the destruction of a splendid European court generated political uncertainties and revolutionary possibilities. As part of the reconstruction exercise, Pombal surveyed the populace in search of technical and sci‐ entific data about the earthquake, and his findings pointed to new methods in construc‐ tion. Liquefaction had been observed in the riverside areas, so new buildings there were constructed on timber piles driven into the soil to act as anti-seismic stabilisers. Timber buildings had survived the quake better than masonry buildings, so new buildings had internal seismic frames added to their fabric. The new streets were widened so that even if the buildings on both sides had collapsed, there would remain an evacuation passage between them [6].

Ana Araújo [7] suggests that the press of the time stimulated a pan-European debate about issues of pragmatic responsiveness to natural disasters and unity of action across national borders. It was certainly the first example of a truly international relief effort after a calamity of such magnitude. Fact and fiction merged in the minds of the populace, fuelled by exag‐ gerated emotive accounts of the catastrophe printed in cheap popular news pamphlets [8]. These served to fuel superstitious terrors, displays of religious fanaticism and dire predic‐ tions associated with natural phenomena such as Halley's Comet which was expected to ap‐ pear in 1757 or 1758. The auto da fé, (act of faith, or public burning of heretics) held in the Terreiro in June 1756 was devised as a collective atonement for the earthquake of the previ‐ ous year [9].

The event also presented political opportunity for the Minister of State to distribute anti-Jes‐ uit propaganda in the capitals of Europe via anonymously authored opinion pieces in major newspapers [10]. Pombal co-opted some of the most influential men of the day in literature and science [11] to disseminate news and views about earthquake recovery, the necessity of repressive civil protection measures adopted post-disaster, and public health and welfare in‐ terventions. In the interests of civil obedience, state terror replaced the religious fear of the past.

#### **5. Experience and expertise**

The group charged with the recovery and rebuilding of Lisbon were an elite cohort of mili‐ tary engineers whose routine duties involved cartography, architecture and town planning, including the design and construction of infrastructure, (roads, aqueducts, ports, defence structures and fortifications) and associated buildings. They were a geographically mobile and flexible group of men, deployed in situations ranging from the frontier towns at outer reaches of the global Portuguese empire, to its busy cosmopolitan centre of trade and com‐ merce. Their expertise embodied a high level of practical knowledge gained from work in the field as well as state of the art scientific knowledge. Their training via an apprenticeship system at the University Coimbra, represented a productive intersection of the knowledge embodied in foreign treatises such as those of Alberti and Vitruvius, and the real world they encountered in their active service.

ment of 65 medieval and baroque churches and the building of dozens of new places of wor‐

160 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

More significantly, Enlightenment-thinking from Northern Europe opened up the possibil‐ ity of a scientific explanation for disaster rather than a religious one, rendering reconstruc‐ tion a rational rather than a superstitious exercise, while the destruction of a splendid European court generated political uncertainties and revolutionary possibilities. As part of the reconstruction exercise, Pombal surveyed the populace in search of technical and sci‐ entific data about the earthquake, and his findings pointed to new methods in construc‐ tion. Liquefaction had been observed in the riverside areas, so new buildings there were constructed on timber piles driven into the soil to act as anti-seismic stabilisers. Timber buildings had survived the quake better than masonry buildings, so new buildings had internal seismic frames added to their fabric. The new streets were widened so that even if the buildings on both sides had collapsed, there would remain an evacuation passage

Ana Araújo [7] suggests that the press of the time stimulated a pan-European debate about issues of pragmatic responsiveness to natural disasters and unity of action across national borders. It was certainly the first example of a truly international relief effort after a calamity of such magnitude. Fact and fiction merged in the minds of the populace, fuelled by exag‐ gerated emotive accounts of the catastrophe printed in cheap popular news pamphlets [8]. These served to fuel superstitious terrors, displays of religious fanaticism and dire predic‐ tions associated with natural phenomena such as Halley's Comet which was expected to ap‐ pear in 1757 or 1758. The auto da fé, (act of faith, or public burning of heretics) held in the Terreiro in June 1756 was devised as a collective atonement for the earthquake of the previ‐

The event also presented political opportunity for the Minister of State to distribute anti-Jes‐ uit propaganda in the capitals of Europe via anonymously authored opinion pieces in major newspapers [10]. Pombal co-opted some of the most influential men of the day in literature and science [11] to disseminate news and views about earthquake recovery, the necessity of repressive civil protection measures adopted post-disaster, and public health and welfare in‐ terventions. In the interests of civil obedience, state terror replaced the religious fear of the

The group charged with the recovery and rebuilding of Lisbon were an elite cohort of mili‐ tary engineers whose routine duties involved cartography, architecture and town planning, including the design and construction of infrastructure, (roads, aqueducts, ports, defence structures and fortifications) and associated buildings. They were a geographically mobile and flexible group of men, deployed in situations ranging from the frontier towns at outer reaches of the global Portuguese empire, to its busy cosmopolitan centre of trade and com‐ merce. Their expertise embodied a high level of practical knowledge gained from work in

ship in the neoclassical style.

between them [6].

ous year [9].

past.

**5. Experience and expertise**

Their approach to the built environment appears to privilege the site-specific adaptation of useful typologies, while giving a high priority to public space and infrastructure (especially port infrastructure, given that so many of the Portuguese colonial settlements and *feitórias* (trading posts) were coastal)[12]. Their sensitivity to the scale differential between the city and the building via a unified architectural language is a notable aspect of the Lisbon plan. Many of the best military personnel were in Lisbon at the time of the earthquake, and others joined them for the special mission of rebuilding the capital. Their designs were infused with the utopian‐ ism of the Portuguese school of the rational and civic-minded town planning demonstrated in new world cities such as Goa, Rio, Macapà and Luanda [13].

In 1910, cavalry officer Christovam Sepúlveda published Manuel da Maya e os Engenheiros Militares Portuguêses no Terromoto de 1755 (Manuel da Maya and the Portuguese Military Engineers in the 1755 Earthquake) [14] which identified Maia's central role as the strategist in the planning and rebuilding exercise. Jacôme Ratton [15] identifies military architect Eu‐ génio dos Santos as the person who formulated the principles of the reconstruction.

Sepúlveda highlights two important aspects of the organisational culture of the military engineers. The first was their adherence to hierarchy, discipline and teamwork in military operations and the second was the heavy investment they made in strategic planning. Maia's role in executing both these practices is evident in the terms of reference for the re‐ construction that were which embodied in the Dissertacão and other critical supporting official documents published in the late 1750s. Manuel da Maia's 1755 Dissertacão [16] de‐ scribes the strategic solution for the rebuilding of Lisbon after the 1755 disaster. In addi‐ tion to emphasising leadership, Sepúlveda deemed the teamwork, training and field experience of this group of elite military engineers in the colonial realm as essential prep‐ aration for the task.

There was ample regional and local precedent for disaster recovery as earthquakes had plagued Lisbon since its founding. A seismic event on the 26th of January 1531 had struck the city with equal force, but produced a far less acute political reaction due to the rela‐ tive social stability at the time [17]. The Portuguese had certainly benefited from the study of other disasters such as the 1666 fire of London and the numerous volcanic events of in Sicily, particularly those affecting the city of Catania. Maia had been involved for many years in surveying and engineering projects around Lisbon, and this formed the basis of his knowledge to reconstruct the city. Critically he had been involved in the surveying and building of the Main Fortification Line in 1716, the Águas Livres Aquaduct, between 1720 and 1730, and the Santa Isabel survey in the 1740s. This deep knowledge of the ter‐ rain subsequently allowed him to swiftly prepare the alternative plans. He authored the Dissertacão which described the methods and processes leading up to the publication of the 1756 plan (Figure 2).

storey building type was developed. This building ingeniously incorporated fire walls that extended above the roof line and earthquake resistant diagonally braced, timber load-bear‐ ing cages called gaiola that sat independently within the masonry perimeter walls. Building components were prefabricated on a large scale off-site, allowing speedy on-site assembly

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163

The plan ultimately chosen, incorporated the following mechanisms and characteristics

**2.** A standardised construction solution incorporating fire separations and seismic frames

**4.** The use of the rubble from the ruins to raise and regularise the levels of the Baixa by 1.2

**5.** A disregard of property ownership boundaries (especially the location of churches) so

This formed the basis for the legal provisions of the legal decree of June 1758 which finalised the plan. It had taken two years for the plan and the legal and financial exchanges to align.

These critical ownership reforms relied on Pombal's public credibility and private influence at Court. The period was dogged by multiple conspiracies, including a palace coup in 1756, and an assassination attempt on the King in 1758. These behind-the-scenes machinations lengthened the plan's implementation time, but unlocked the heart of the city as a centre of trade and commerce, thereby better serving the emerging merchant class and challenging the historic power of nobility and clergy. The plan largely preserved the places and names of the historic city and retained the location, hierarchy and functions of three main squares (with the re-naming occurring later). Churches that had been free-standing were now inte‐

The Praça do Comércio doubled the size of the former Terreiro do Paço, by reclaiming land from the river Tagus. The new square's symmetry, focusing on an equestrian statue (flanked by the animals of Portugal's far-flung continental empires), and the triumphal arch to the main street, Rua Augusta, constituted the axis of the plan as a whole. The post-earthquake square had a statue of King José I at its heart but perimeter uses were designated for func‐ tions of state, with the palace itself relocated to the city edge at Ajúda [21]. While symboli‐ cally, a royal statue still stood at the centre of Lisbon, functionally it was now a place for commercial enterprise (Figure 3). Blocks were configured in a simple proportional and com‐ positional system that supported elegant and environmentally comfortable street sections and public-space footprints. There was a hierarchy of three main streets, each 60 palms wide, that were named for the guilds (Rua da Prata, Rua do Ouro or Silver and Gold Streets respectively), cross streets that were named for church and parish interests, and North-

South streets, each of widths of 40 palms, that were also named for guilds.

**3.** A rational and generous public space network based on pre-existing places

as not to compromise the rigorous geometry of the new plan

with minimal traditional craft involvement [19].

which are documented by Claudio Montiero [20]:

metres, and reclaim new land from the Tagus

A year later, in June 1759, re-building finally commenced.

**1.** A standardised building type

grated into the Baixa blocks.

**Figure 2.** A Topographical Plan of the city of Lisbon [Carvalho and Mardel] 1755 Museu da Cidade de Lisboa

#### **6. Planning: The dissertacão**

The town planning principles for rebuilding Lisbon were established within 5 months of the event, in Part I of the Dissertacão, which directed that options for both rebuilding and relo‐ cating the city be considered. There was an impetus to rebuild and relocate the court in a better place (either at Bélem or São João dos Bem-Casados) which opened up the possibility for locating new public buildings in the Baixa. Layouts were subsequently developed by military architects Eugénio dos Santos and Carlos Mardel.

Part ll of the Dissertacão was comprised of a legal decree in May 1756 that governed land ownership, construction and finance for the rebuilding of the devastated centre, and a set of development rules for areas of expansion at the periphery. Part III of the Dissertacão was comprised of the alternative plans, which covered a range of rebuilding and relocation op‐ tions. Maia presented six options investigating variations of street widening, ground re-lev‐ elling, adjusted building heights, all contributed to a radical new block morphology, residential-building typology (with trade and craft premises at ground level) and sense of urban scale [18]. A prefabricated, technically innovative and stylistically simplified fourstorey building type was developed. This building ingeniously incorporated fire walls that extended above the roof line and earthquake resistant diagonally braced, timber load-bear‐ ing cages called gaiola that sat independently within the masonry perimeter walls. Building components were prefabricated on a large scale off-site, allowing speedy on-site assembly with minimal traditional craft involvement [19].

The plan ultimately chosen, incorporated the following mechanisms and characteristics which are documented by Claudio Montiero [20]:

**1.** A standardised building type

**Figure 2.** A Topographical Plan of the city of Lisbon [Carvalho and Mardel] 1755 Museu da Cidade de Lisboa

162 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

The town planning principles for rebuilding Lisbon were established within 5 months of the event, in Part I of the Dissertacão, which directed that options for both rebuilding and relo‐ cating the city be considered. There was an impetus to rebuild and relocate the court in a better place (either at Bélem or São João dos Bem-Casados) which opened up the possibility for locating new public buildings in the Baixa. Layouts were subsequently developed by

Part ll of the Dissertacão was comprised of a legal decree in May 1756 that governed land ownership, construction and finance for the rebuilding of the devastated centre, and a set of development rules for areas of expansion at the periphery. Part III of the Dissertacão was comprised of the alternative plans, which covered a range of rebuilding and relocation op‐ tions. Maia presented six options investigating variations of street widening, ground re-lev‐ elling, adjusted building heights, all contributed to a radical new block morphology, residential-building typology (with trade and craft premises at ground level) and sense of urban scale [18]. A prefabricated, technically innovative and stylistically simplified four-

**6. Planning: The dissertacão**

military architects Eugénio dos Santos and Carlos Mardel.


This formed the basis for the legal provisions of the legal decree of June 1758 which finalised the plan. It had taken two years for the plan and the legal and financial exchanges to align. A year later, in June 1759, re-building finally commenced.

These critical ownership reforms relied on Pombal's public credibility and private influence at Court. The period was dogged by multiple conspiracies, including a palace coup in 1756, and an assassination attempt on the King in 1758. These behind-the-scenes machinations lengthened the plan's implementation time, but unlocked the heart of the city as a centre of trade and commerce, thereby better serving the emerging merchant class and challenging the historic power of nobility and clergy. The plan largely preserved the places and names of the historic city and retained the location, hierarchy and functions of three main squares (with the re-naming occurring later). Churches that had been free-standing were now inte‐ grated into the Baixa blocks.

The Praça do Comércio doubled the size of the former Terreiro do Paço, by reclaiming land from the river Tagus. The new square's symmetry, focusing on an equestrian statue (flanked by the animals of Portugal's far-flung continental empires), and the triumphal arch to the main street, Rua Augusta, constituted the axis of the plan as a whole. The post-earthquake square had a statue of King José I at its heart but perimeter uses were designated for func‐ tions of state, with the palace itself relocated to the city edge at Ajúda [21]. While symboli‐ cally, a royal statue still stood at the centre of Lisbon, functionally it was now a place for commercial enterprise (Figure 3). Blocks were configured in a simple proportional and com‐ positional system that supported elegant and environmentally comfortable street sections and public-space footprints. There was a hierarchy of three main streets, each 60 palms wide, that were named for the guilds (Rua da Prata, Rua do Ouro or Silver and Gold Streets respectively), cross streets that were named for church and parish interests, and North-South streets, each of widths of 40 palms, that were also named for guilds.

```
Figure 3. Praça do Comércio [Rick Allender] 2007
```
The streets determined the building fabric. The building heights were to be no higher than the width of the streets and thus set a new standard for access to light and air in an urban building. A system of dividing dwellings by floors, with retail at ground-level and artisans' workshops at basement-level, was developed. The arrangement of three floors of identical apartments plus an attic above the ground-level floor was the origin of modern mixed-fami‐ ly ownership in Portugal, and the typology represented the potential for a mixing of classes in one edifice, each with its own separate entrance. Both shops and apartments were built to be rented, thus facilitating urban housing as a form of property investment.

**Figure 4.** century standardised building types in Chiado District [Diane Brand] 2004

searched.

**7. Rebuilding**

This aesthetic and technical system became the basis for re-planning Lisbon as a whole, es‐ pecially around the new palaces, and in areas developed at higher densities in the western part of the city. The scheme set the tone for a future direction of urbanism in Lisbon that embodied a new rational Cartesian pattern but which was firmly anchored in a traditional morphology. Over time the plan set aesthetic, technical and legal precedents but these were not fully appreciated until the modern era, when separate built environment professional disciplines such as architecture and planning emerged and their histories were fully re‐

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165

Claudio Monteiro [22] suggests that legislative reform enacted during the reconstruction of Lisbon was driven by the plan's necessary transformation of the structure of urban property

The plan's implementation was directed by José Monteiro de Carvalho, who materialised the abstract rules for scale and the architectural features of the urban blocks at a large scale, while enforcing technical standards such as fire compartments between tenancies, new sew‐ er locations and the cage structures. He was also attentive to the finer details of serial design elements required for cast-steel balconies, the ashlar masonry trim to building bases and openings, and consistent window and door joinery profiles (Figure 4). Up to this time he had been in charge of demolition, which earned him the nickname Bota-Abaixo or knock-itdown.

**Figure 4.** century standardised building types in Chiado District [Diane Brand] 2004

This aesthetic and technical system became the basis for re-planning Lisbon as a whole, es‐ pecially around the new palaces, and in areas developed at higher densities in the western part of the city. The scheme set the tone for a future direction of urbanism in Lisbon that embodied a new rational Cartesian pattern but which was firmly anchored in a traditional morphology. Over time the plan set aesthetic, technical and legal precedents but these were not fully appreciated until the modern era, when separate built environment professional disciplines such as architecture and planning emerged and their histories were fully re‐ searched.

#### **7. Rebuilding**

**Figure 3.** Praça do Comércio [Rick Allender] 2007

down.

The streets determined the building fabric. The building heights were to be no higher than the width of the streets and thus set a new standard for access to light and air in an urban building. A system of dividing dwellings by floors, with retail at ground-level and artisans' workshops at basement-level, was developed. The arrangement of three floors of identical apartments plus an attic above the ground-level floor was the origin of modern mixed-fami‐ ly ownership in Portugal, and the typology represented the potential for a mixing of classes in one edifice, each with its own separate entrance. Both shops and apartments were built to

The plan's implementation was directed by José Monteiro de Carvalho, who materialised the abstract rules for scale and the architectural features of the urban blocks at a large scale, while enforcing technical standards such as fire compartments between tenancies, new sew‐ er locations and the cage structures. He was also attentive to the finer details of serial design elements required for cast-steel balconies, the ashlar masonry trim to building bases and openings, and consistent window and door joinery profiles (Figure 4). Up to this time he had been in charge of demolition, which earned him the nickname Bota-Abaixo or knock-it-

be rented, thus facilitating urban housing as a form of property investment.

164 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Claudio Monteiro [22] suggests that legislative reform enacted during the reconstruction of Lisbon was driven by the plan's necessary transformation of the structure of urban property ownership, and the careful reconciling of individual rights with the security of future invest‐ ment. The reconstruction plan and the resultant legislative reform were the tools that brought about eventual political and economic reform. Pombal's aim was to consolidate the power of the King while at the same time modernising the nation's legal, economic and so‐ cial structures.

Undersized lots, oversized lots and lots eliminated by the creation of new public spaces or streets were paid fair land swap or cash compensation in proportion to the frontage width of the site. Cash payments were necessary since there was a greater total area for public space in the new plan and therefore an undersupply of new sites. Maia proposed a propor‐ tional reduction of all buildable areas to account for improved amenity as a result of more public space in new areas. The chief surveyor of the inspections, Alexandre José Montanha divided the Baixa into seven zones of value, thus setting up a financial mechanism by which properties were exchanged or compensation calculated with a 'premium payment' embed‐

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In this way the plan created value. The overall effect was to replace certain types of landowners (nobles and secular clergy) with merchants, sparking what Subtil called 'po‐ litical earthquakes' in Portuguese society [24]. The compensation system and plan stimu‐ lated investment from the business community who had financed the reconstruction (via credit or purchase). This in effect led to a significant redistribution of wealth, a consoli‐ dation of economic power among the middle class, and a new degree of upward social mobility. The move also unlocked the encumbrances and liens strictures embedded in the medieval property codes that had inhibited clean development processes within the

Complete execution of the plan took over 40 years. An initial displacement of Lisbon's pop‐ ulation to the west immediately after the earthquake inhibited the uptake of property in the

Authoritarian processes were the key to the effective reconstruction of Lisbon. Pombal was appointed by the King to his position as Minister of State and he used this mandate to cen‐ tralise political power by removing the Senate from the state decision-making processes and from the implementation of the Baixa plan, thereby breaking a longstanding tradition of lo‐ cal autonomy in planning and taxation matters. The institutional makeup of the reconstruc‐ tion process evolved as the pragmatics of the situation dictated, with two complementary bodies emerging: The first was the Lisbon Neighbourhoods Inspectorate as the civil defence responder in 12 neighbourhoods city-wide. This agency was also instrumental in clearing debris, removing and burying bodies, executing surveys and re-allocating land. The second was the Public Works Department which was formed to implement the plan, and projects including public spaces and new buildings. The technical team, comprising of army officers in the civil administrative hierarchy, originated at the Lisbon Public Works Draughting Of‐ fice (*Casa do Risco da Obras Públicas*) which later became the Public Works Department. This reduced, focused and disciplined chain-of-command, facilitated the absolute control re‐ quired for such sweeping changes to the urban space configuration and the resulting shift in

centre. The ancient elites also retreated, taking the court sector with them.

ded for superior sites adjacent to public space.

**9. Authoritarian processes**

political and economic hegemony.

city.

The measures used to achieve these included:


The plan was approved two and a half years after the earthquake, and the first lots were re‐ constructed three and a half years later. Nevertheless, illegal urban development had sprung up in spite of harsh enforcement of the decrees.


#### **8. Compensation**

Land within the Baixa was immediately appropriated by the state and re-allocated, with preference given to existing land owners, leaseholders or administrators for nobles, the church or the crown. Compensation was based *only* on site area, and not the post-earth‐ quake building condition. New lots were allocated on the condition that redevelopment would be completed within five years, effectively rendering the exercise a land re-adjust‐ ment operation rather than an exercise in eminent domain, while preventing long-term speculation of development leap-frogging.

Undersized lots, oversized lots and lots eliminated by the creation of new public spaces or streets were paid fair land swap or cash compensation in proportion to the frontage width of the site. Cash payments were necessary since there was a greater total area for public space in the new plan and therefore an undersupply of new sites. Maia proposed a propor‐ tional reduction of all buildable areas to account for improved amenity as a result of more public space in new areas. The chief surveyor of the inspections, Alexandre José Montanha divided the Baixa into seven zones of value, thus setting up a financial mechanism by which properties were exchanged or compensation calculated with a 'premium payment' embed‐ ded for superior sites adjacent to public space.

In this way the plan created value. The overall effect was to replace certain types of landowners (nobles and secular clergy) with merchants, sparking what Subtil called 'po‐ litical earthquakes' in Portuguese society [24]. The compensation system and plan stimu‐ lated investment from the business community who had financed the reconstruction (via credit or purchase). This in effect led to a significant redistribution of wealth, a consoli‐ dation of economic power among the middle class, and a new degree of upward social mobility. The move also unlocked the encumbrances and liens strictures embedded in the medieval property codes that had inhibited clean development processes within the city.

Complete execution of the plan took over 40 years. An initial displacement of Lisbon's pop‐ ulation to the west immediately after the earthquake inhibited the uptake of property in the centre. The ancient elites also retreated, taking the court sector with them.

#### **9. Authoritarian processes**

ownership, and the careful reconciling of individual rights with the security of future invest‐ ment. The reconstruction plan and the resultant legislative reform were the tools that brought about eventual political and economic reform. Pombal's aim was to consolidate the power of the King while at the same time modernising the nation's legal, economic and so‐

166 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

**1.** The surveying of existing buildings at the time of the earthquake to avoid disputes dur‐ ing reconstruction, especially when an overhaul of the land ownership arrangements was contemplated (Wren's plan for London after the fire in 1666 had been frustrated by an inability to rationalise the nobility's ownership of the large estates in central Lon‐

**2.** A prohibition on constructing or reconstructing buildings before the plan's approval:

**b.** Within Lisbon, to prevent the rebuilding of buildings partially destroyed by fire (less than one third of the original buildings were in a habitable condition and no alternative accommodation existed apart from tent cities and timber shacks erected in public

The plan was approved two and a half years after the earthquake, and the first lots were re‐ constructed three and a half years later. Nevertheless, illegal urban development had

**3.** Freezing rents and freezing the price of construction materials, to combat speculation, eviction and exploitation around the shortage of construction materials and rental ac‐ commodation. This was done by restricting any new lease agreements to perpetual

**4.** Creating the conditions for legal, religious and political reform by freely compensating and transferring pre-existing property ownerships into newly agreed formats

**5.** The complete demolition of the Baixa to make way for a despotic but utopian and pro‐

Land within the Baixa was immediately appropriated by the state and re-allocated, with preference given to existing land owners, leaseholders or administrators for nobles, the church or the crown. Compensation was based *only* on site area, and not the post-earth‐ quake building condition. New lots were allocated on the condition that redevelopment would be completed within five years, effectively rendering the exercise a land re-adjust‐ ment operation rather than an exercise in eminent domain, while preventing long-term

cial structures.

don).

spaces).

The measures used to achieve these included:

**a.** Outside of Lisbon, to stop the city growing randomly and

sprung up in spite of harsh enforcement of the decrees.

leases or long-term rental contracts.

speculation of development leap-frogging.

gressive plan [23]

**8. Compensation**

Authoritarian processes were the key to the effective reconstruction of Lisbon. Pombal was appointed by the King to his position as Minister of State and he used this mandate to cen‐ tralise political power by removing the Senate from the state decision-making processes and from the implementation of the Baixa plan, thereby breaking a longstanding tradition of lo‐ cal autonomy in planning and taxation matters. The institutional makeup of the reconstruc‐ tion process evolved as the pragmatics of the situation dictated, with two complementary bodies emerging: The first was the Lisbon Neighbourhoods Inspectorate as the civil defence responder in 12 neighbourhoods city-wide. This agency was also instrumental in clearing debris, removing and burying bodies, executing surveys and re-allocating land. The second was the Public Works Department which was formed to implement the plan, and projects including public spaces and new buildings. The technical team, comprising of army officers in the civil administrative hierarchy, originated at the Lisbon Public Works Draughting Of‐ fice (*Casa do Risco da Obras Públicas*) which later became the Public Works Department. This reduced, focused and disciplined chain-of-command, facilitated the absolute control re‐ quired for such sweeping changes to the urban space configuration and the resulting shift in political and economic hegemony.

The first order of business was the creation of the public realm, with new streets, squares and gardens. Public health was foregrounded with upgraded sanitary infrastructure, water supply and transport systems given priority. The construction of essential public buildings for trade and business continuity such as the Customs Building in Praça do Comércio was also critical as they served an influential special-interest group. Reconstruction took roughly until 1807 to complete, ironically coinciding with the royal family's flight to Brazil as Napo‐ leon's troops massed on the border during the Peninsular Wars.

**Figure 5.** Praça do Comércio [Susana Pereira] 2011

**11. Christchurch 2010 and 2011**

Zealand's second largest, with a population of 376,700.

**12. Events**

The following section discusses urban design initiatives arising from a series of devastating earthquakes in the new world city of Christchurch, New Zealand and compares them to the 18th century event in Portugal. Two years after the earthquakes, urban design strategies to

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Christchurch was planned in the mid-19th century as the last Wakefield settlement to be established by a private colonization enterprise called the New Zealand Company. The company was involved in the establishment of six urban centres in New Zealand: Well‐ ington [1839] Wanganui [1840], Nelson [1841], New Plymouth [1842], Dunedin [1848] and Christchurch [1850]. The New Zealand Company brought more than 9,000 hopeful settlers to New Zealand up until 1843 [28], with each of the towns achieving numbers of between 1000 and 4000 in the first years of settlement. Christchurch was sponsored by the Church of England and aspired to recreate a stable agrarian, hierarchical society on fertile land, between the Pacific coast and the Southern Alps on terrain purchased from the local Ngai Tahu tribe. A rectangular grid was surveyed onto flat swampy land and adjusted where necessary to accommodate the Avon/Otakaro River, which meandered across the site. The diagram of the city incorporated the grid, the river, two diagonal roads registering the principal transport routes to the port of Lyttelton and the main road north, a cross-shaped central square (where a cathedral was later built), a market adjacent to the Avon River, two asymmetrical peripheral squares, and parklands provid‐ ing generous and varied public and recreational space. In June 2010 the city was New

In the early morning of Sunday the 4th of September 2010 a magnitude 7.1 earthquake locat‐ ed 40 km west of Christchurch on an east-west fault, not previously identified, struck the city. The fortuitous timing of the event explains the lack of fatalities but there was wide‐ spread damage to unreinforced masonry (URM) structures [walls and chimneys] in Christ‐ church and surrounding towns. Nineteenth century URM shop fronts collapsed into main thoroughfares in the CBD, and there was widespread liquefaction to eastern suburbs' resi‐

rebuild the broken city have been formulated but are not yet implemented.

#### **10. Urban design opportunities**

A pamphlet at the time of the 1755 disaster optimistically stated that 'Lisbon could not have suffered a more fortunate tragedy', indicating the potential the populace saw in the recon‐ struction process [25]. A major aspect of this fortune clustered around the implementation of a good example of urban design, one that was ground-breaking for its time and which still ranks as outstanding. The plan proceeded with a new gridded layout for the Baixa quarter, based on the disaster and re-planning precedents of the fires in London and Rennes, and the earthquake in Catania and planning precedents such as the 1620, 1673 and 1714 extensions to Turin [26]. Among precedents for the Baixa Plan were Wren's 1666 plan for London (new street alignments and property subdivision), new Turin (the regularised geometry of public space and city blocks) and the Place Royale, Place Vendôme and the Royal Palace at Bor‐ deaux (the continuous articulated facades, marked entry points and arcaded bases of the buildings which framed the public space) [27]. It represented a successful example of con‐ temporary urban disaster and urban design knowledge of in 18th century Europe.

The Terreiro do Paço was reconstructed and renamed the Praça do Comércio (Figure 5). Rubble from the earthquake was recycled (eliminating the disposal problem) and an area of land equal in size to the original square was reclaimed, extending the urban platform into the Tagus. The reconstruction of Lisbon presented an opportunity to integrate the waterfront square into the urban fabric. The new monumentally scaled square used sym‐ metry and architecture to integrate a complex of buildings embracing the space into the urban fold, and created a powerful central axis penetrating into the city behind via Rua Augusta, thereby linking the square to the Rossio (Lisbon's other principal square) be‐ yond. Pombal's project redressed the problems that had beset the Terreiro as an urban square. Certainly the architectural and urban legibility of the square was enhanced, the buildings were better scaled to city blocks and there was more permeability to the Baixa, with vistas along Rua da Prata, Rua Augusta and Rua do Ouro. However, the authori‐ tarian method of delivery required the subordination of individual property rights to the public interest, with new development and construction precisely defined within the strict constraints of the plan. The effect was also to subordinate architecture to urban de‐ sign, with exacting and specific controls placed on building envelopes, construction methods, uses, appearance and materials.

**Figure 5.** Praça do Comércio [Susana Pereira] 2011

The first order of business was the creation of the public realm, with new streets, squares and gardens. Public health was foregrounded with upgraded sanitary infrastructure, water supply and transport systems given priority. The construction of essential public buildings for trade and business continuity such as the Customs Building in Praça do Comércio was also critical as they served an influential special-interest group. Reconstruction took roughly until 1807 to complete, ironically coinciding with the royal family's flight to Brazil as Napo‐

168 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

A pamphlet at the time of the 1755 disaster optimistically stated that 'Lisbon could not have suffered a more fortunate tragedy', indicating the potential the populace saw in the recon‐ struction process [25]. A major aspect of this fortune clustered around the implementation of a good example of urban design, one that was ground-breaking for its time and which still ranks as outstanding. The plan proceeded with a new gridded layout for the Baixa quarter, based on the disaster and re-planning precedents of the fires in London and Rennes, and the earthquake in Catania and planning precedents such as the 1620, 1673 and 1714 extensions to Turin [26]. Among precedents for the Baixa Plan were Wren's 1666 plan for London (new street alignments and property subdivision), new Turin (the regularised geometry of public space and city blocks) and the Place Royale, Place Vendôme and the Royal Palace at Bor‐ deaux (the continuous articulated facades, marked entry points and arcaded bases of the buildings which framed the public space) [27]. It represented a successful example of con‐

temporary urban disaster and urban design knowledge of in 18th century Europe.

The Terreiro do Paço was reconstructed and renamed the Praça do Comércio (Figure 5). Rubble from the earthquake was recycled (eliminating the disposal problem) and an area of land equal in size to the original square was reclaimed, extending the urban platform into the Tagus. The reconstruction of Lisbon presented an opportunity to integrate the waterfront square into the urban fabric. The new monumentally scaled square used sym‐ metry and architecture to integrate a complex of buildings embracing the space into the urban fold, and created a powerful central axis penetrating into the city behind via Rua Augusta, thereby linking the square to the Rossio (Lisbon's other principal square) be‐ yond. Pombal's project redressed the problems that had beset the Terreiro as an urban square. Certainly the architectural and urban legibility of the square was enhanced, the buildings were better scaled to city blocks and there was more permeability to the Baixa, with vistas along Rua da Prata, Rua Augusta and Rua do Ouro. However, the authori‐ tarian method of delivery required the subordination of individual property rights to the public interest, with new development and construction precisely defined within the strict constraints of the plan. The effect was also to subordinate architecture to urban de‐ sign, with exacting and specific controls placed on building envelopes, construction

leon's troops massed on the border during the Peninsular Wars.

**10. Urban design opportunities**

methods, uses, appearance and materials.

The following section discusses urban design initiatives arising from a series of devastating earthquakes in the new world city of Christchurch, New Zealand and compares them to the 18th century event in Portugal. Two years after the earthquakes, urban design strategies to rebuild the broken city have been formulated but are not yet implemented.

#### **11. Christchurch 2010 and 2011**

Christchurch was planned in the mid-19th century as the last Wakefield settlement to be established by a private colonization enterprise called the New Zealand Company. The company was involved in the establishment of six urban centres in New Zealand: Well‐ ington [1839] Wanganui [1840], Nelson [1841], New Plymouth [1842], Dunedin [1848] and Christchurch [1850]. The New Zealand Company brought more than 9,000 hopeful settlers to New Zealand up until 1843 [28], with each of the towns achieving numbers of between 1000 and 4000 in the first years of settlement. Christchurch was sponsored by the Church of England and aspired to recreate a stable agrarian, hierarchical society on fertile land, between the Pacific coast and the Southern Alps on terrain purchased from the local Ngai Tahu tribe. A rectangular grid was surveyed onto flat swampy land and adjusted where necessary to accommodate the Avon/Otakaro River, which meandered across the site. The diagram of the city incorporated the grid, the river, two diagonal roads registering the principal transport routes to the port of Lyttelton and the main road north, a cross-shaped central square (where a cathedral was later built), a market adjacent to the Avon River, two asymmetrical peripheral squares, and parklands provid‐ ing generous and varied public and recreational space. In June 2010 the city was New Zealand's second largest, with a population of 376,700.

#### **12. Events**

In the early morning of Sunday the 4th of September 2010 a magnitude 7.1 earthquake locat‐ ed 40 km west of Christchurch on an east-west fault, not previously identified, struck the city. The fortuitous timing of the event explains the lack of fatalities but there was wide‐ spread damage to unreinforced masonry (URM) structures [walls and chimneys] in Christ‐ church and surrounding towns. Nineteenth century URM shop fronts collapsed into main thoroughfares in the CBD, and there was widespread liquefaction to eastern suburbs' resi‐ dential areas close to rivers. This earthquake triggered a series of aftershocks that moved progressively closer to the city, culminating in a shallow, 5km deep, M 6.3 earthquake on February 22, 2011 (Figure 6) centred at Lyttelton. This too occurred on an unidentified fault. This second major event resulted in 181 deaths, with more than half of these occurring in the collapse of the Canterbury Television Building. This earthquake caused further significant damage and collapse to URM structures in the CBD, more liquefaction to eastern suburbs' residential areas close to rivers and rock falls and landslides to the south and southeast. The result is that between 50% and 70% of buildings in the CBD are likely to be condemned for demolition with the discovery that many structures are out of vertical axis alignment due to differential settlement and the realization that the repair of others is uneconomic.

**Figure 7.** Canterbury provincial buildings post-earthquake [Diane Brand] 2011

After the second earthquake it was clear that existing central and local government agencies were not equipped to facilitate recovery operations, and The Canterbury Earthquake Recov‐ ery Authority (CERA) was formed on March 29, 2011 as a special government agency for the co-ordination of the recovery and rebuilding activities in Canterbury. The Canterbury Earth‐ quake Recovery Act [29] gave unparalleled (in New Zealand terms) authoritarian powers to the Minister of Earthquake Recovery, The Right Honourable Gerry Brownlee, although in practice the powers have been exercised only with the agreement of the cabinet (the govern‐ ment's executive level ministerial group). In particular the CER Act allows a recovery plan approved by the minister to override the requirements of New Zealand planning legislation frameworks embodied in the Resource Management Act, the Conservation and Reserves Acts and large parts of the Local Government Act (although not the funding provisions, and

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The government's response to the Canterbury earthquakes occurred in an environment of mistrust between national and local government, characterised by the dissolution of the re‐

**13. Recovery**

the Land Transport Act).

**Figure 6.** A 6.3 magnitude earthquake strikes Christchurch on February 22nd 2011 [Gillian Needham]

The civil defence response was immediate, with international urban search and rescue terms arriving from nations such as Australia and Japan to relieve local emergency services. Emer‐ gency response centres were swiftly established in parks, and sports and community build‐ ings, with temporary accommodation provision in the form of tents, caravans, and prefabricated houses deployed by the Department of Housing and Construction. The entire CBD was cordoned off and placed under police and army jurisdiction for an extended peri‐ od, leaving many businesses without access to their premises. The slow and uneven process of insurance compensation has led to businesses relocating to other centres in New Zealand or locally to the western edge of the city close to the airport. The entertainment centre of the city has re-established itself in the west along Riccarton Road. With more than half of Christ‐ church's listed heritage buildings (250) located in the CBD, the city's patrimony has been particularly hard hit with more than 100 demolitions to date. The iconic Anglican Cathedral, the Catholic Cathedral of the Blessed Sacrament and the Canterbury Provincial buildings suffered significant damage (Figure 7).

Learning from Lisbon: Contemporary Cities in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/53635 171

**Figure 7.** Canterbury provincial buildings post-earthquake [Diane Brand] 2011

#### **13. Recovery**

dential areas close to rivers. This earthquake triggered a series of aftershocks that moved progressively closer to the city, culminating in a shallow, 5km deep, M 6.3 earthquake on February 22, 2011 (Figure 6) centred at Lyttelton. This too occurred on an unidentified fault. This second major event resulted in 181 deaths, with more than half of these occurring in the collapse of the Canterbury Television Building. This earthquake caused further significant damage and collapse to URM structures in the CBD, more liquefaction to eastern suburbs' residential areas close to rivers and rock falls and landslides to the south and southeast. The result is that between 50% and 70% of buildings in the CBD are likely to be condemned for demolition with the discovery that many structures are out of vertical axis alignment due to

differential settlement and the realization that the repair of others is uneconomic.

170 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

**Figure 6.** A 6.3 magnitude earthquake strikes Christchurch on February 22nd 2011 [Gillian Needham]

suffered significant damage (Figure 7).

The civil defence response was immediate, with international urban search and rescue terms arriving from nations such as Australia and Japan to relieve local emergency services. Emer‐ gency response centres were swiftly established in parks, and sports and community build‐ ings, with temporary accommodation provision in the form of tents, caravans, and prefabricated houses deployed by the Department of Housing and Construction. The entire CBD was cordoned off and placed under police and army jurisdiction for an extended peri‐ od, leaving many businesses without access to their premises. The slow and uneven process of insurance compensation has led to businesses relocating to other centres in New Zealand or locally to the western edge of the city close to the airport. The entertainment centre of the city has re-established itself in the west along Riccarton Road. With more than half of Christ‐ church's listed heritage buildings (250) located in the CBD, the city's patrimony has been particularly hard hit with more than 100 demolitions to date. The iconic Anglican Cathedral, the Catholic Cathedral of the Blessed Sacrament and the Canterbury Provincial buildings

After the second earthquake it was clear that existing central and local government agencies were not equipped to facilitate recovery operations, and The Canterbury Earthquake Recov‐ ery Authority (CERA) was formed on March 29, 2011 as a special government agency for the co-ordination of the recovery and rebuilding activities in Canterbury. The Canterbury Earth‐ quake Recovery Act [29] gave unparalleled (in New Zealand terms) authoritarian powers to the Minister of Earthquake Recovery, The Right Honourable Gerry Brownlee, although in practice the powers have been exercised only with the agreement of the cabinet (the govern‐ ment's executive level ministerial group). In particular the CER Act allows a recovery plan approved by the minister to override the requirements of New Zealand planning legislation frameworks embodied in the Resource Management Act, the Conservation and Reserves Acts and large parts of the Local Government Act (although not the funding provisions, and the Land Transport Act).

The government's response to the Canterbury earthquakes occurred in an environment of mistrust between national and local government, characterised by the dissolution of the re‐ gional council, Environment Canterbury, in March 2010, and the quite different leadership styles of the mayor and the minister. Part of the reason for the distrust lay in the different underlying political philosophies, with the ruling national government espousing a 'shrink‐ ing government' position together with the sales of government assets as a means of reduc‐ ing the national deficit. In contrast, local government in general, and in particular the Christchurch City Council (CCC) supported maintaining the level of local government serv‐ ices as a minimum, with the CCC pursuing a clear position of holding onto city assets in city-owned holding companies and using these to generate income or reduce tax liabilities.

the cost of land remediation, flood protection and/or the restoration of services made it un‐ economic to rebuild on the terrain. The government assessed all residential land in Christ‐ church and the surrounding towns based on extensive geotechnical studies and eventually classified them as either 'green' (fit to rebuild) or 'red' (unfit to rebuild). Subsequently, the government has set about purchasing more than 6,000 houses in the residential red zone based on the 2009 rateable valuations. The houses are generally either clustered in low lying

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areas around the Avon River and Estuary or vulnerable to rock fall in the Port Hills.

**Figure 8.** Liquefaction in the eastern suburbs of Christchurch (2011) New Zealand Aerial Mapping Ltd for LINZ

locate communities.

The retreat of settlement along the Avon River and Estuary in Christchurch has provided a microcosm of the kinds of issues likely to be faced by many coastal cities worldwide, if sea level rises predicted over the next century occur [33]. The model of strategic retreat, from vulnerable areas may become relevant in many other areas. While the Christchurch model has addressed the issues of strategic retreat and attempted to manage the economic impact on residents, no attempt has been made to address the impacts at a community level. How‐ ever, a map showing the areas where 'red zoners' have relocated reveals a scattered pattern determined by the prices and availability of houses, rather than any managed attempt to re‐

The CER Act facilitated the immediate use of earthquake rubble for reclamation work to ex‐ tend the container port at Lyttelton. This would have been difficult and protracted under the RMA. The port is one of the key economic drivers for the Canterbury economy, and the port extension reflects the changing scale and technologies of port logisitics. The CER Act has al‐ so been used to fast-track residential subdivisions, thereby short circuiting the currently pro‐ tracted consent and environment court processes. The intention has been to free up residential land so that people who have been displaced by the earthquakes, and workers arriving in Christchurch to assist with the rebuild can be adequately housed. In doing so, the minister has confirmed the overall urban form proposed in the Greater Christchurch Ur‐

In 2011, the government introduced an amendment to the Local Government Act aimed spe‐ cifically at limiting the services local governments could provide and the levels of rate in‐ creases they could introduce. The CER Act specifically excluded the minister from making changes to the funding provisions of the Local Government Act and there have been con‐ tinuing discussions about the allocation of costs between national and local government ranging from the emergency response costs to repair and rebuilding costs. The national gov‐ ernment has clearly stated on a number of occasions that it believes that the CCC should sell some of its assets to fund the recovery bill.

The CER Act established a new government agency to oversee the recovery of Canter‐ bury and the government's investment in the rebuilding of Christchurch. The act speci‐ fies that the minister can direct the city council, but does not clearly establish the respective roles of the organisations, or create any direct organisational links or lines of management apart from general requirements to consult. The newness of the govern‐ ment agency CERA, coupled with the pre-existing responsibilities of the council, has led to a lack of clarity about their respective roles, with duplication happening at a number of levels between the two organisations.

The CER Act specifically required the CCC to develop a draft recovery plan for the central city in nine months for the minister's approval, including public consultation. Planning for the rest of the Christchurch metropolitan area was the responsibility of CERA. The Draft Central City Plan (CCP)[30] was completed in eight months, however the minister spent a further seven months reviewing it. When the minister received the draft he endorsed the vi‐ sion contained in the first volume, with the exception of the proposed transport changes, but he set aside the proposed regulations for further investigation [31]. The 'blueprint' plan [32], subsequently approved by the minister, broadly adopted the range of major infrastructure projects proposed in the Draft CCP and retained the majority of the proposed regulations including the reduced height limits. The major changes from the Draft CCP was the removal of the regulations requiring improved environmental performance from buildings (the BASE assessment developed with the NZ Green Building Council), the removal of the finan‐ cial incentives for rebuilding proposed by the council and the removal of the majority of the transport provisions pending further investigation.

The Canterbury earthquakes resulted in extensive land damage and areas of liquefaction, particularly in the eastern part of the city (Figure 8). The resulting changes in elevation in‐ cluded some areas in the Port Hills rising by up to 500 millimetres while areas around the estuary and Avon River subsided by more than 500 millimetres (Figure 9). In extensive areas the cost of land remediation, flood protection and/or the restoration of services made it un‐ economic to rebuild on the terrain. The government assessed all residential land in Christ‐ church and the surrounding towns based on extensive geotechnical studies and eventually classified them as either 'green' (fit to rebuild) or 'red' (unfit to rebuild). Subsequently, the government has set about purchasing more than 6,000 houses in the residential red zone based on the 2009 rateable valuations. The houses are generally either clustered in low lying areas around the Avon River and Estuary or vulnerable to rock fall in the Port Hills.

gional council, Environment Canterbury, in March 2010, and the quite different leadership styles of the mayor and the minister. Part of the reason for the distrust lay in the different underlying political philosophies, with the ruling national government espousing a 'shrink‐ ing government' position together with the sales of government assets as a means of reduc‐ ing the national deficit. In contrast, local government in general, and in particular the Christchurch City Council (CCC) supported maintaining the level of local government serv‐ ices as a minimum, with the CCC pursuing a clear position of holding onto city assets in city-owned holding companies and using these to generate income or reduce tax liabilities. In 2011, the government introduced an amendment to the Local Government Act aimed spe‐ cifically at limiting the services local governments could provide and the levels of rate in‐ creases they could introduce. The CER Act specifically excluded the minister from making changes to the funding provisions of the Local Government Act and there have been con‐ tinuing discussions about the allocation of costs between national and local government ranging from the emergency response costs to repair and rebuilding costs. The national gov‐ ernment has clearly stated on a number of occasions that it believes that the CCC should sell

172 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

The CER Act established a new government agency to oversee the recovery of Canter‐ bury and the government's investment in the rebuilding of Christchurch. The act speci‐ fies that the minister can direct the city council, but does not clearly establish the respective roles of the organisations, or create any direct organisational links or lines of management apart from general requirements to consult. The newness of the govern‐ ment agency CERA, coupled with the pre-existing responsibilities of the council, has led to a lack of clarity about their respective roles, with duplication happening at a number

The CER Act specifically required the CCC to develop a draft recovery plan for the central city in nine months for the minister's approval, including public consultation. Planning for the rest of the Christchurch metropolitan area was the responsibility of CERA. The Draft Central City Plan (CCP)[30] was completed in eight months, however the minister spent a further seven months reviewing it. When the minister received the draft he endorsed the vi‐ sion contained in the first volume, with the exception of the proposed transport changes, but he set aside the proposed regulations for further investigation [31]. The 'blueprint' plan [32], subsequently approved by the minister, broadly adopted the range of major infrastructure projects proposed in the Draft CCP and retained the majority of the proposed regulations including the reduced height limits. The major changes from the Draft CCP was the removal of the regulations requiring improved environmental performance from buildings (the BASE assessment developed with the NZ Green Building Council), the removal of the finan‐ cial incentives for rebuilding proposed by the council and the removal of the majority of the

The Canterbury earthquakes resulted in extensive land damage and areas of liquefaction, particularly in the eastern part of the city (Figure 8). The resulting changes in elevation in‐ cluded some areas in the Port Hills rising by up to 500 millimetres while areas around the estuary and Avon River subsided by more than 500 millimetres (Figure 9). In extensive areas

some of its assets to fund the recovery bill.

of levels between the two organisations.

transport provisions pending further investigation.

**Figure 8.** Liquefaction in the eastern suburbs of Christchurch (2011) New Zealand Aerial Mapping Ltd for LINZ

The retreat of settlement along the Avon River and Estuary in Christchurch has provided a microcosm of the kinds of issues likely to be faced by many coastal cities worldwide, if sea level rises predicted over the next century occur [33]. The model of strategic retreat, from vulnerable areas may become relevant in many other areas. While the Christchurch model has addressed the issues of strategic retreat and attempted to manage the economic impact on residents, no attempt has been made to address the impacts at a community level. How‐ ever, a map showing the areas where 'red zoners' have relocated reveals a scattered pattern determined by the prices and availability of houses, rather than any managed attempt to re‐ locate communities.

The CER Act facilitated the immediate use of earthquake rubble for reclamation work to ex‐ tend the container port at Lyttelton. This would have been difficult and protracted under the RMA. The port is one of the key economic drivers for the Canterbury economy, and the port extension reflects the changing scale and technologies of port logisitics. The CER Act has al‐ so been used to fast-track residential subdivisions, thereby short circuiting the currently pro‐ tracted consent and environment court processes. The intention has been to free up residential land so that people who have been displaced by the earthquakes, and workers arriving in Christchurch to assist with the rebuild can be adequately housed. In doing so, the minister has confirmed the overall urban form proposed in the Greater Christchurch Ur‐ ban Development Strategy which sets out urban limits, greenfield residential areas and housing densities, targets for intensification, urban design outcomes and key transport corri‐ dors (although these measures are currently being challenged through the courts). The need to dispose of a huge quantity of rubble in a very short timeframe, and to expedite the provi‐ sion of new housing stock to replace that damaged and destroyed are common issues for cities struck by earthquakes. Both Lisbon and Christchurch used authoritarian powers to ad‐ dress these issues in a timely and economically beneficial manner.

wards of NZD 30 billion [35] and represents the worst natural disaster in a developed nation relative to size of economy. Private insurance fared no better, with the market dominated by only 5 principal providers, several of whom have struggled to pay out claims without government assistance. The compensation for damage is an on-going sa‐ ga of bureaucratic complexity, delays and individual suffering which has been exhaus‐ tively documented by the nation's media. Policy neglect had contributed to the underinsurance of the majority of New Zealand homes, with EQC covering a quarter of the average value of a New Zealand home, and maximum premiums still at their 1973 level of NZD 67.50 per annum in spite of advice to increase these in 2008. A premium for land insurance had never been charged, but this type of damage turned out to be the most expensive. While the annual EQC premiums were raised in the immediate af‐ termath of the earthquakes, policy revision in the insurance sector is still under consid‐ eration. Discussions include the introduction of land insurance, better processes of alignment between land use decision making in territorial local authorities and disaster insurance agencies, and the level of future risk-sharing between EQC and private insur‐

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Local government manager Warwick Isaac, who was overseeing the demolition of buildings in Christchurch, was appointed to lead the Central Christchurch Development Unit (CCDU) which is tasked with leading the rebuilding of the central city. Dubbed 'the demolition man', a Tom Scott cartoon has him lamenting "If I had known you were going to put me in charge of the rebuild Minister I wouldn't have pulled so much down." Both the council's Draft Central City Plan and the 100-day Blueprint subsequently produced by the CCDU were prepared by multidisciplinary teams led by urban designers. Although the approaches were fundamentally different, with a community-led bottom-up process for the Draft Cen‐ tral City Plan and a technocratic top down 'masterplan' in the Blueprint, both documents were 'design-led' in that they used design as the key method of developing the plans with built environment professionals (urban designers, landscape architects, architects) holding

The Draft Central City Plan was developed by a multidisciplinary in-house team of council staff that included seconded team members from national and international consultancies including Gehl Architects from Copenhagen. Hugh Nicholson, the Principal Urban Designer at the Christchurch City Council, was responsible for delivering the content of the plan. The team included urban designers, architects, landscape architects, engineers, economists, plan‐ ners, community advisers, communication specialists, sustainability advisers and recreation

The 100-day Blueprint was prepared by a consortium of design companies led by Boffa Mis‐ kell, a local company specialising in landscape architecture, urban design and landscape planning. The consortium included local architects Warren and Mahoney and Sheppard and

the key leadership roles responsible for developing plan content.

ers [36].

**15. Experience and expertise**

and open space planners.

**Figure 9.** Lidar Map of Christchurch showing ground level changes (2010) COMET

#### **14. Compensation**

After a wave of earthquakes that plagued New Zealand between 1929 and 1942 (the worst of which was the M7.8 Hawkes Bay earthquake of 1931 which completely devas‐ tated the cities of Napier and Hastings), the Labour Government created the Earth‐ quake and War Damage Commission. The commission eventually insured all residential properties, including the land (up to \$100,000 for buildings and \$20,000 for contents) against damage from natural disasters [34]. Commercial property must be privately in‐ sured. In early 2010, the EQC had reserves of NZD 5.6 billion backed by a government guarantee. However the total insurance estimate for the Christchurch earthquakes is up‐ wards of NZD 30 billion [35] and represents the worst natural disaster in a developed nation relative to size of economy. Private insurance fared no better, with the market dominated by only 5 principal providers, several of whom have struggled to pay out claims without government assistance. The compensation for damage is an on-going sa‐ ga of bureaucratic complexity, delays and individual suffering which has been exhaus‐ tively documented by the nation's media. Policy neglect had contributed to the underinsurance of the majority of New Zealand homes, with EQC covering a quarter of the average value of a New Zealand home, and maximum premiums still at their 1973 level of NZD 67.50 per annum in spite of advice to increase these in 2008. A premium for land insurance had never been charged, but this type of damage turned out to be the most expensive. While the annual EQC premiums were raised in the immediate af‐ termath of the earthquakes, policy revision in the insurance sector is still under consid‐ eration. Discussions include the introduction of land insurance, better processes of alignment between land use decision making in territorial local authorities and disaster insurance agencies, and the level of future risk-sharing between EQC and private insur‐ ers [36].

#### **15. Experience and expertise**

ban Development Strategy which sets out urban limits, greenfield residential areas and housing densities, targets for intensification, urban design outcomes and key transport corri‐ dors (although these measures are currently being challenged through the courts). The need to dispose of a huge quantity of rubble in a very short timeframe, and to expedite the provi‐ sion of new housing stock to replace that damaged and destroyed are common issues for cities struck by earthquakes. Both Lisbon and Christchurch used authoritarian powers to ad‐

174 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

dress these issues in a timely and economically beneficial manner.

**Figure 9.** Lidar Map of Christchurch showing ground level changes (2010) COMET

After a wave of earthquakes that plagued New Zealand between 1929 and 1942 (the worst of which was the M7.8 Hawkes Bay earthquake of 1931 which completely devas‐ tated the cities of Napier and Hastings), the Labour Government created the Earth‐ quake and War Damage Commission. The commission eventually insured all residential properties, including the land (up to \$100,000 for buildings and \$20,000 for contents) against damage from natural disasters [34]. Commercial property must be privately in‐ sured. In early 2010, the EQC had reserves of NZD 5.6 billion backed by a government guarantee. However the total insurance estimate for the Christchurch earthquakes is up‐

**14. Compensation**

Local government manager Warwick Isaac, who was overseeing the demolition of buildings in Christchurch, was appointed to lead the Central Christchurch Development Unit (CCDU) which is tasked with leading the rebuilding of the central city. Dubbed 'the demolition man', a Tom Scott cartoon has him lamenting "If I had known you were going to put me in charge of the rebuild Minister I wouldn't have pulled so much down." Both the council's Draft Central City Plan and the 100-day Blueprint subsequently produced by the CCDU were prepared by multidisciplinary teams led by urban designers. Although the approaches were fundamentally different, with a community-led bottom-up process for the Draft Cen‐ tral City Plan and a technocratic top down 'masterplan' in the Blueprint, both documents were 'design-led' in that they used design as the key method of developing the plans with built environment professionals (urban designers, landscape architects, architects) holding the key leadership roles responsible for developing plan content.

The Draft Central City Plan was developed by a multidisciplinary in-house team of council staff that included seconded team members from national and international consultancies including Gehl Architects from Copenhagen. Hugh Nicholson, the Principal Urban Designer at the Christchurch City Council, was responsible for delivering the content of the plan. The team included urban designers, architects, landscape architects, engineers, economists, plan‐ ners, community advisers, communication specialists, sustainability advisers and recreation and open space planners.

The 100-day Blueprint was prepared by a consortium of design companies led by Boffa Mis‐ kell, a local company specialising in landscape architecture, urban design and landscape planning. The consortium included local architects Warren and Mahoney and Sheppard and Rout as well as specialist convention centre and stadium designers. The team was led by landscape architects Don Miskell and Rachel De Lambert and urban designer Marc Bailey.

more consistent intensity of development over the area of the core, avoiding the spikes of oversupply and undersupply provided by the tower model. There was a strong backlash from the business community against the proposed height limits and this was one of the provisions that the national government set aside when it reviewed the Draft CCP. However at the end of the review, they reconfirmed the height limits based primarily on the economic

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The Draft CCP proposed using built-form restrictions to further promote a compact com‐ mercial core, with a higher intensity of development through the use of incentives and by limiting development potential outside the core. The Blueprint adopted a far more interven‐ tionist approach by establishing a 'green frame' (reinstating nineteenth century parklands) and compulsorily acquiring large areas of land surrounding the core. The long-term future of the proposed frame is not entirely clear. Some parts of it appear to be intended as perma‐ nent open spaces, some parts such as the health precinct are earmarked for campus-style commercial development, while other parts appear to form a potential land bank for release

In summary, the Draft CCP adopted a multifaceted approach to recovery that incorporated a wider range of projects and implementation tools. The vision balanced incentives and reg‐ ulation to deliver major catalyst and public space projects, alongside sustainability, housing,

impact assessment and the land supply issues.

**Figure 10.** The CCUP Blueprint (2012) CCUP

once land in the core has been fully developed.

#### **16. Planning**

Within three months of the February earthquake, an extensive public consultation exer‐ cise was undertaken with the people of Christchurch to help shape the future plan of the devastated city. The website shareanidea.org.nz generated 58,000 hits and engaged the public in four key areas: move (transportation), market (business), space (public place and recreation) and life (mixed uses), across traditional and social media net‐ works. This was followed by an interactive expo, 10 community workshops, 100 stake‐ holder meetings and a professional competition for 5 selected sites. An unprecedented level of public participation generated 106,000 ideas over six weeks and these informed the development of the Draft Central City Plan.

One of the firm assumptions underlying the Draft Central City Plan was the mainte‐ nance of the existing street and land ownership patterns. In part this recognised the strong urban form provided by the existing grid and its heritage values. In part it was in response to initial estimates that suggested 50% of the buildings in the commercial core might be demolished (subsequently this looks to be greater than 60%). This im‐ plied that there was still a substantial residual value in the remaining buildings and services which the city could not afford to lose. In terms of broad urban design objec‐ tives, both the draft CCP and the Blueprint set out to provide an enhanced network of green open spaces based around the Papa o Otakaro (Avon River Park) and Cathedral Square, to rebuild a more compact intensive low-rise commercial core, to increase the number and density of inner-city residents, and to promote mixed-use developments in areas surrounding the core. The plan also proposed more sustainable transportation sys‐ tems, including a light-rail system from the university to the CBD, that would eventual‐ ly connect into a regional rail network and a grid of cycle-ways. The redevelopment clustered around a set of core projects seeded by government, which were designed to attract investment and rebuilding in the CBD and these included a greening of Cathe‐ dral Square, a sports hub, a convention centre, a central library and a hospital campus.

One of the more controversial urban design proposals in the Draft CCP was a reduction in height limits to 28 metres or seven stories. Christchurch was the first major Australasian city to propose a low-rise urban form, moving away from the modernist podium and tower model of development. The reasons for this were partly the high level of community sup‐ port for low-rise buildings and their desire to create a more human-scale environment with better environmental conditions, including improved sunlight access and reduced wind fun‐ nelling. Additionally, economic modelling indicated that due to the increased foundation and structural costs required to build higher than six to seven storeys, the most economical‐ ly viable built-form with the highest rate of financial return was in this height range. The final reason was to address the oversupply of commercial land in the core, by rebuilding a more consistent intensity of development over the area of the core, avoiding the spikes of oversupply and undersupply provided by the tower model. There was a strong backlash from the business community against the proposed height limits and this was one of the provisions that the national government set aside when it reviewed the Draft CCP. However at the end of the review, they reconfirmed the height limits based primarily on the economic impact assessment and the land supply issues.

**Figure 10.** The CCUP Blueprint (2012) CCUP

Rout as well as specialist convention centre and stadium designers. The team was led by landscape architects Don Miskell and Rachel De Lambert and urban designer Marc Bailey.

176 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Within three months of the February earthquake, an extensive public consultation exer‐ cise was undertaken with the people of Christchurch to help shape the future plan of the devastated city. The website shareanidea.org.nz generated 58,000 hits and engaged the public in four key areas: move (transportation), market (business), space (public place and recreation) and life (mixed uses), across traditional and social media net‐ works. This was followed by an interactive expo, 10 community workshops, 100 stake‐ holder meetings and a professional competition for 5 selected sites. An unprecedented level of public participation generated 106,000 ideas over six weeks and these informed

One of the firm assumptions underlying the Draft Central City Plan was the mainte‐ nance of the existing street and land ownership patterns. In part this recognised the strong urban form provided by the existing grid and its heritage values. In part it was in response to initial estimates that suggested 50% of the buildings in the commercial core might be demolished (subsequently this looks to be greater than 60%). This im‐ plied that there was still a substantial residual value in the remaining buildings and services which the city could not afford to lose. In terms of broad urban design objec‐ tives, both the draft CCP and the Blueprint set out to provide an enhanced network of green open spaces based around the Papa o Otakaro (Avon River Park) and Cathedral Square, to rebuild a more compact intensive low-rise commercial core, to increase the number and density of inner-city residents, and to promote mixed-use developments in areas surrounding the core. The plan also proposed more sustainable transportation sys‐ tems, including a light-rail system from the university to the CBD, that would eventual‐ ly connect into a regional rail network and a grid of cycle-ways. The redevelopment clustered around a set of core projects seeded by government, which were designed to attract investment and rebuilding in the CBD and these included a greening of Cathe‐ dral Square, a sports hub, a convention centre, a central library and a hospital campus.

One of the more controversial urban design proposals in the Draft CCP was a reduction in height limits to 28 metres or seven stories. Christchurch was the first major Australasian city to propose a low-rise urban form, moving away from the modernist podium and tower model of development. The reasons for this were partly the high level of community sup‐ port for low-rise buildings and their desire to create a more human-scale environment with better environmental conditions, including improved sunlight access and reduced wind fun‐ nelling. Additionally, economic modelling indicated that due to the increased foundation and structural costs required to build higher than six to seven storeys, the most economical‐ ly viable built-form with the highest rate of financial return was in this height range. The final reason was to address the oversupply of commercial land in the core, by rebuilding a

**16. Planning**

the development of the Draft Central City Plan.

The Draft CCP proposed using built-form restrictions to further promote a compact com‐ mercial core, with a higher intensity of development through the use of incentives and by limiting development potential outside the core. The Blueprint adopted a far more interven‐ tionist approach by establishing a 'green frame' (reinstating nineteenth century parklands) and compulsorily acquiring large areas of land surrounding the core. The long-term future of the proposed frame is not entirely clear. Some parts of it appear to be intended as perma‐ nent open spaces, some parts such as the health precinct are earmarked for campus-style commercial development, while other parts appear to form a potential land bank for release once land in the core has been fully developed.

In summary, the Draft CCP adopted a multifaceted approach to recovery that incorporated a wider range of projects and implementation tools. The vision balanced incentives and reg‐ ulation to deliver major catalyst and public space projects, alongside sustainability, housing, arts and transport projects. The blueprint focuses more deliberately on national government priorities, providing a regulated vision embodied in a range of catalyst projects that involve rebuilding critical public and economic infrastructure such as the hospital and the conven‐ tion centre. At the second anniversary of the first earthquake, the city has started to rebuild with 1000 building consents in the past 12 months. Processes are being put in place by CCUP to fast track significant projects through an urban design board process while the CCC Urban Design Panel is doubling in size to cater for the anticipated increasing volume of resource consent applications.

tional precedent) for a commercial rather than an institutional centre for Lisbon. The imple‐ mentation of these strategies was only possible due to the authoritarian nature of the governance system at the time, and an emergency response which delivered this power uni‐

Learning from Lisbon: Contemporary Cities in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/53635

179

A similar approach is clearly not possible or appropriate in a modern democracy, although the potential exists and was contemplated within the New Zealand legislation introduced to affect recovery plans in Christchurch. The national government has committed substantial leadership resources and legislative support to the recovery of Christchurch and the Canter‐ bury region. Of particular note has been the strategic land use withdrawal from the residen‐ tial red zone, the on-going demolition of dangerous buildings, and the proposed major infrastructure and facilities as catalyst projects. The authoritarian powers provided through the CER Act have enabled these initiatives to occur with the minimum of delay or inappro‐ priate process, although some delays have occurred due to the lack of clarity about the re‐ spective roles of the council and CERA. The Draft CCP proposed an integrated plan for the central city, while the blueprint approved by the minister focuses on rebuilding the major infrastructure and facilities and leaves out much of the 'glue' - the smaller scale projects that hold the big moves together. The absence of urban residential typologies or social housing to accommodate earthquake victims from the list of prioritised projects, overlooks the ca‐ pacity and necessity of embedding these in the plan as community or capital investment op‐ portunities in the way they were in the Lisbon plan. The council currently intends to continue with a number of these smaller projects in tandem, so the end outcome may well be the same albeit encapsulated in two plans rather than one. The major omission of the ma‐

The Draft CCP and the approved blueprint have both been led by urban designers and shaped by urban design propositions, in particular a low-rise, more intensively developed city based on economic factors with high quality green and public spaces shaped for people. The extent to which they can replicate the success of the Lisbon reconstruction is at least in part subject to international economic forces and remains to be seen. Equally important is the clarity developed around future urban design controls. While these exist in the Draft CCP, the minister has side-stepped council involvement in consent processes and set up a new consent authority to oversee central-city consents, with one representative each from the council, CERA and Ngai Tahu, (with no articulated formal role for Christchurch City Ur‐ ban Design Panel). This body has a mandated consent turnaround of 5 working days as

compared to the usual 20- to 85-day timeframe (depending on levels of compliance).

economic context and the governance systems in place at the time of the crisis.

The top-down process enacted in the Lisbon earthquake or more recently the Kyoto earth‐ quake, and the bottom-up process followed after Hurricane Katrina, sit at either extreme of the continuum of possible response management strategies to natural disasters. A balance between these extremes is more feasible, the balance depending on the socio-cultural and

Communication Technologies have had a major impact on response capability in the inter‐ vening centuries between Lisbon and Christchurch. Tsunami early warning systems and in‐ ternational media networks give instant alerts of impending disasters allowing preparation

laterally into the hands of the Minister of State.

jority of the transport provisions is the subject of a further study.

#### **17. Conclusion**

Events in Lisbon and Christchurch stand apart in chronology, severity and extent, recovery management, and design outcome, but have sufficient in common to draw some interesting and relevant conclusions to 21st century disaster-response strategies. Prime amongst these is the use of urban design as a revitalisation mechanism, as it is a natural aspiration to want to rebuild a devastated metropolis anew, correcting the mistakes of the past by implementing new and state-of-the-art practices to envision a better city.

Lisbon suffered not only a cataclysmic earthquake but also a devastating tsunami and fire. Fortunately for Christchurch the latter two stressors were absent, and 250 years of improved planning, seismic and fire engineering performance, reduced the relative death toll from building collapse while generous provision of public space allowed the population to escape to safer areas. Christchurch, in achieving this high level of technical preparedness, is much indebted to Lisbon which pioneered many contemporary post-earthquake response strat‐ egies. Two hundred and fifty years before the terms resilience or sustainability entered the built environment lexicon, their guiding principles were applied in Lisbon. Pombal's engi‐ neers made the decision to rebuild in the same location, but not before investigating six al‐ ternative sites and researching the technical failures that led to the high death toll. In so doing they were embedding in the plan the future sustainability of the city and built in resil‐ ience for future seismic events, not only for themselves but also for others who chose to fol‐ low their example.

The civil defence emergency response was, for the first time in history, an international one, with Portugal's trading partners stepping in to assist. The necessary revenue for recovery was raised via import taxes levied by local businesses. Exploitative behaviours were cur‐ tailed by punishing looters, freezing rents and the price of materials. The immediate survey‐ ing and demolition of the area reduced the territory to a uniform and indisputable condition in terms of future claims. Prior to any rebuilding, a post-disaster analysis was conducted to establish which buildings had survived and why. These investigations led to a number of technical innovations that required a new formal and technical building typology. This sim‐ ple and elegant solution to rebuild the city relied on three crucial pillars: the complete dem‐ olition of the devastated Baixa, the re-drawing of property lines, and an urban design plan that integrated these technical provisions into a best-practice vision (based on solid interna‐ tional precedent) for a commercial rather than an institutional centre for Lisbon. The imple‐ mentation of these strategies was only possible due to the authoritarian nature of the governance system at the time, and an emergency response which delivered this power uni‐ laterally into the hands of the Minister of State.

arts and transport projects. The blueprint focuses more deliberately on national government priorities, providing a regulated vision embodied in a range of catalyst projects that involve rebuilding critical public and economic infrastructure such as the hospital and the conven‐ tion centre. At the second anniversary of the first earthquake, the city has started to rebuild with 1000 building consents in the past 12 months. Processes are being put in place by CCUP to fast track significant projects through an urban design board process while the CCC Urban Design Panel is doubling in size to cater for the anticipated increasing volume

178 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Events in Lisbon and Christchurch stand apart in chronology, severity and extent, recovery management, and design outcome, but have sufficient in common to draw some interesting and relevant conclusions to 21st century disaster-response strategies. Prime amongst these is the use of urban design as a revitalisation mechanism, as it is a natural aspiration to want to rebuild a devastated metropolis anew, correcting the mistakes of the past by implementing

Lisbon suffered not only a cataclysmic earthquake but also a devastating tsunami and fire. Fortunately for Christchurch the latter two stressors were absent, and 250 years of improved planning, seismic and fire engineering performance, reduced the relative death toll from building collapse while generous provision of public space allowed the population to escape to safer areas. Christchurch, in achieving this high level of technical preparedness, is much indebted to Lisbon which pioneered many contemporary post-earthquake response strat‐ egies. Two hundred and fifty years before the terms resilience or sustainability entered the built environment lexicon, their guiding principles were applied in Lisbon. Pombal's engi‐ neers made the decision to rebuild in the same location, but not before investigating six al‐ ternative sites and researching the technical failures that led to the high death toll. In so doing they were embedding in the plan the future sustainability of the city and built in resil‐ ience for future seismic events, not only for themselves but also for others who chose to fol‐

The civil defence emergency response was, for the first time in history, an international one, with Portugal's trading partners stepping in to assist. The necessary revenue for recovery was raised via import taxes levied by local businesses. Exploitative behaviours were cur‐ tailed by punishing looters, freezing rents and the price of materials. The immediate survey‐ ing and demolition of the area reduced the territory to a uniform and indisputable condition in terms of future claims. Prior to any rebuilding, a post-disaster analysis was conducted to establish which buildings had survived and why. These investigations led to a number of technical innovations that required a new formal and technical building typology. This sim‐ ple and elegant solution to rebuild the city relied on three crucial pillars: the complete dem‐ olition of the devastated Baixa, the re-drawing of property lines, and an urban design plan that integrated these technical provisions into a best-practice vision (based on solid interna‐

of resource consent applications.

new and state-of-the-art practices to envision a better city.

**17. Conclusion**

low their example.

A similar approach is clearly not possible or appropriate in a modern democracy, although the potential exists and was contemplated within the New Zealand legislation introduced to affect recovery plans in Christchurch. The national government has committed substantial leadership resources and legislative support to the recovery of Christchurch and the Canter‐ bury region. Of particular note has been the strategic land use withdrawal from the residen‐ tial red zone, the on-going demolition of dangerous buildings, and the proposed major infrastructure and facilities as catalyst projects. The authoritarian powers provided through the CER Act have enabled these initiatives to occur with the minimum of delay or inappro‐ priate process, although some delays have occurred due to the lack of clarity about the re‐ spective roles of the council and CERA. The Draft CCP proposed an integrated plan for the central city, while the blueprint approved by the minister focuses on rebuilding the major infrastructure and facilities and leaves out much of the 'glue' - the smaller scale projects that hold the big moves together. The absence of urban residential typologies or social housing to accommodate earthquake victims from the list of prioritised projects, overlooks the ca‐ pacity and necessity of embedding these in the plan as community or capital investment op‐ portunities in the way they were in the Lisbon plan. The council currently intends to continue with a number of these smaller projects in tandem, so the end outcome may well be the same albeit encapsulated in two plans rather than one. The major omission of the ma‐ jority of the transport provisions is the subject of a further study.

The Draft CCP and the approved blueprint have both been led by urban designers and shaped by urban design propositions, in particular a low-rise, more intensively developed city based on economic factors with high quality green and public spaces shaped for people. The extent to which they can replicate the success of the Lisbon reconstruction is at least in part subject to international economic forces and remains to be seen. Equally important is the clarity developed around future urban design controls. While these exist in the Draft CCP, the minister has side-stepped council involvement in consent processes and set up a new consent authority to oversee central-city consents, with one representative each from the council, CERA and Ngai Tahu, (with no articulated formal role for Christchurch City Ur‐ ban Design Panel). This body has a mandated consent turnaround of 5 working days as compared to the usual 20- to 85-day timeframe (depending on levels of compliance).

The top-down process enacted in the Lisbon earthquake or more recently the Kyoto earth‐ quake, and the bottom-up process followed after Hurricane Katrina, sit at either extreme of the continuum of possible response management strategies to natural disasters. A balance between these extremes is more feasible, the balance depending on the socio-cultural and economic context and the governance systems in place at the time of the crisis.

Communication Technologies have had a major impact on response capability in the inter‐ vening centuries between Lisbon and Christchurch. Tsunami early warning systems and in‐ ternational media networks give instant alerts of impending disasters allowing preparation or evacuation. Cell phone networks, satellite communications and GPS tracking and posi‐ tioning technologies contribute to more effective search and rescue operations. Collective media and social network platforms pressure reconstruction authorities to deliver on their promises in a timely manner. The internet collapses the time required for widespread public consultation leading to more effective community buy-in into new urban proposals.

[2] Araújo, A. (1997) *A Morte em Lisboa. Atitudes e Representações, 1700-1830 (*Lisbon: Edi‐

Learning from Lisbon: Contemporary Cities in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/53635

181

[4] Kostof, S. (1991) *The City Shaped: Uban Patterns and Meanings Through History* (Lon‐

[5] Maxwell, K. (1995) *Pombal, paradox of the Enlightenment* (Cambridge, Cambridge Uni‐

[6] Hamblyn, R. (2009) *Terra, tales of the earth: four events that changed the world* (London:

[7] Araújo, A. (2006) 'The Lisbon Earthquake of 1755-Public distress and political propa‐

[8] Esperjo, C. (2005) 'Spanish news pamphlets on the 1755 earthquake: trade strategies of the printers of Seville' in T. Braun and J. Radner (eds) *The Lisbon earthquake of 1755:*

[10] Frèches, C. (1982) 'Pombal e la compagnie de Jésus: la compagne de pamplets', *Revis‐*

[11] Diogo, M. (2001) 'Ciência Portuguesa no Iluminismo: Os estrangeirados e as comnu‐ nidades científicas europeias' in J. Nunes e M. Gonçlaves (eds.) *Enteados de Galileu? A*

[12] Kagan, R. (2000) *Urban Images of the Hispanic World 1493-1793* (New Haven, Yale Uni‐

[13] Teixeira, M. C. and Valla, M. (1999) *O Urbanismo Português: Séculos XIII-XVIII : Portu‐*

[14] Sepúlveda, C. (1910) *Manuel da Maya e os Engenheiros Militares Portugueses no Terromo‐*

[15] Ratton, J. (1813) *Recordações de…sobre occurencias do seu tempo em Portugal durante o*

[16] Manuel da Maia, *Dissertacão Part I, Part II and Part III* (1755-56) in J. França (1977)

[17] Rossa, W. (2008) 'On the first plan' in A. Tostões. and W. Rossa *Lisboa 1758: The Baixa*

[18] Rossa, W. (1998) *Beyond Baixa: Signs of Urban Planning in Eighteenth Century Lisbon*

[19] Kostof, S. (1991) *The City Shaped: Uban Patterns and Meanings Through History* (Lon‐

*semiperiferia no sistema mundial da ci*ê*ncia* (Porto: Afrontamento: 209-238).

[3] Voltaire (1759) *Candid, or All for the Best* (London, J. Nourse).

*Representations and reactions* (Oxford: SVEC: 66-80).

*ta de Hist*ó*ria das Ideias,* 4/1: 299-327.

*gal-Brasil* (Lisboa, Livros Horizonte).

*to de 1755* (Lisbon: Imprensa Nacional).

*lapso de sestenta e tres annos e meio…*(Lisbon, Fenda 1992)

(Lisbon, Instituto Português do Património Arquitectónico).

*Lisboa pombalina e o Iluminismo* (Lisboa: Bertrand).

*Plan Today* (Lisbon, Lisbon Municipal Council).

don,Thames and Hudson).

[9] Voltaire (1759) *Candid, or All for the Best* (London, J. Nourse).

torial Notícias).

versity Press).

versity Press).

Picador).

don,Thames and Hudson).

ganda'*, e-JPH 4/1 pp10*.

In Christchurch, the lack of alternative design proposals from official sources has been a re‐ sponse to the short timeframes imposed by the government. This is less concerning or neces‐ sary given the wide consultation undertaken to reach the plan outcome. Again in spite of the 250-year separation and with different professional actors, Lisbon and Christchurch had good levels of technical expertise available to generate an urban design-led reconstruction effort using current contemporary urban theory around sustainability and resilience plan‐ ning in combination with deep local knowledge.

The technical planning and architectural detail is not yet present in the Christchurch plan and will be managed by planning consent processes that have not yet been well defined. Lis‐ bon provides an excellent model for reinventing a modern local urban type (a mixed-use, low-rise, multi-tenancy, structurally sound and fire-protected building) and designing an urban block morphology that reflects a historical vernacular. This will be the fabric that weaves the plan framework and the demonstration projects into a real city.

New Zealand government agencies in charge of engineering, building and construction standards have not yet integrated the lessons from the 2010 and 2011 earthquakes into up‐ graded performance codes. As a nation located on a chain of islands on the Pacific 'ring of fire', uptake of resilience strategies like those in enlightenment Portugal must encompass flexible governance systems, high-level technical expertise in national, regional and urban planning sectors, and innovative architectural, communications, engineering and material technologies. This in combination with communities helping themselves is the best insur‐ ance against future calamity.

#### **Author details**

Diane Brand\* and Hugh Nicholson

\*Address all correspondence to: diane.brand@vuw.ac.nz

Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

#### **References**

[1] Baptista, M., Miranda, J.,Miranda, L. and Mendes V. (1996) Rupture Extent of the 1755 Lisbon Earthquake Inferred from Numerical Modeling of Tsunami Data, *Physics and Chemistry of The Earth*, *21/ 1-2*, pp.65-70.


or evacuation. Cell phone networks, satellite communications and GPS tracking and posi‐ tioning technologies contribute to more effective search and rescue operations. Collective media and social network platforms pressure reconstruction authorities to deliver on their promises in a timely manner. The internet collapses the time required for widespread public

In Christchurch, the lack of alternative design proposals from official sources has been a re‐ sponse to the short timeframes imposed by the government. This is less concerning or neces‐ sary given the wide consultation undertaken to reach the plan outcome. Again in spite of the 250-year separation and with different professional actors, Lisbon and Christchurch had good levels of technical expertise available to generate an urban design-led reconstruction effort using current contemporary urban theory around sustainability and resilience plan‐

The technical planning and architectural detail is not yet present in the Christchurch plan and will be managed by planning consent processes that have not yet been well defined. Lis‐ bon provides an excellent model for reinventing a modern local urban type (a mixed-use, low-rise, multi-tenancy, structurally sound and fire-protected building) and designing an urban block morphology that reflects a historical vernacular. This will be the fabric that

New Zealand government agencies in charge of engineering, building and construction standards have not yet integrated the lessons from the 2010 and 2011 earthquakes into up‐ graded performance codes. As a nation located on a chain of islands on the Pacific 'ring of fire', uptake of resilience strategies like those in enlightenment Portugal must encompass flexible governance systems, high-level technical expertise in national, regional and urban planning sectors, and innovative architectural, communications, engineering and material technologies. This in combination with communities helping themselves is the best insur‐

[1] Baptista, M., Miranda, J.,Miranda, L. and Mendes V. (1996) Rupture Extent of the 1755 Lisbon Earthquake Inferred from Numerical Modeling of Tsunami Data, *Physics*

weaves the plan framework and the demonstration projects into a real city.

consultation leading to more effective community buy-in into new urban proposals.

180 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

ning in combination with deep local knowledge.

and Hugh Nicholson

Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

\*Address all correspondence to: diane.brand@vuw.ac.nz

*and Chemistry of The Earth*, *21/ 1-2*, pp.65-70.

ance against future calamity.

**Author details**

Diane Brand\*

**References**


[20] Montiero, C. (2008) 'Laws written evenly along straight lines' in A. Tostões. and W. Rossa *Lisboa 1758: The Baixa Plan Today* (Lisbon, Lisbon Municipal Council).

**Chapter 9**

**Open Space Innovation in Earthquake Affected Cities**

There are two types of resilience: engineering resilience, and ecological resilience. [2] Engi‐ neering resilience is drawn from environmental sciences where the resistance to disturbance and rate of return to an optimal equilibrium is paramount. It is predicated on understanding the componentry of a system, the universal applicability of resilience principles, and its 'efficiency, constancy and predictability' [3] – all attributes at the core of engineers' briefs for

Ecological resilience (ex ecological sciences) is about the interrelatedness of a system's components and forces; how a system can undergo change and still retain function and structure; how it can self-organize; and how it can increase the capacity for learning and adaptation. [4] Evolution exemplifies ecological resilience: it is a force (within a system) that uses random mutations of components (of a system) to lasting advantage. But it is hard to predict how it will work. The characteristics of ecological resilience are immeasurable, different at different scales, dependent on persistence, change and unpredictability, balanced by multiple equilibria, and accepting of experimentation, knowing that it is safe to fail. These characteristics may not always be apparent, but will probably surface when there is a disturb‐ ance, when there is a need to adapt. [5] Nature tells us, paradoxically, that it is perhaps a mistake to try too hard to avoid shocks; that stability lets risk accumulate without providing capability or capacity to deal with disaster; and that volatility actually keeps things manageable

In the wake of apocalyptic disturbances, such as hurricanes, floods and earthquakes, the concept of resilience has penetrated recent urbanism theory. But which type of resilience?

> © 2013 Bryant and Allan; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

> © 2013 Bryant and Allan; licensee InTech. This is a paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Martin Bryant and Penny Allan

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/55465

**1. Introduction**

**1.1. Resilience**

fail-safe design.

[6].

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

'One of the best ways to understand a system is to disturb it.' [1]


### **Open Space Innovation in Earthquake Affected Cities**

Martin Bryant and Penny Allan

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/55465

**1. Introduction**

[20] Montiero, C. (2008) 'Laws written evenly along straight lines' in A. Tostões. and W. Rossa *Lisboa 1758: The Baixa Plan Today* (Lisbon, Lisbon Municipal Council).

[22] Montiero, C. (2008) 'Laws written evenly along straight lines' in A. Tostões. and W. Rossa *Lisboa 1758: The Baixa Plan Today* (Lisbon, Lisbon Municipal Council).

[23] Silva, R. (2008) 'Lisbon rebuilt and expanded 1758-1903' in A. Tostões. and W. Rossa

[24] Subtil, J. (2007) *O Terramoto Político (1755-1759); Memória e poder* (Lisboa: Universi‐

[25] Almeida P. (1973) 'A arquitectura do século XVIII em Portugal: pretext e argumento para uma aproximacão semiológica', *Bracara Augusta* (Braga: Câmara Municipal de

[26] Barreiros, M.H. (2008) 'Urban Landscapes: Houses, Streets and Squares of 18th Centu‐

[27] Teixeira, M. C. and Valla, M. (1999) *O Urbanismo Português: Séculos XIII-XVIII : Portu‐*

[29] Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Act 2011: http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/

[30] Christchurch City Council, Draft Central City Plan 2011: http://resources.ccc.govt.nz/ files/CentralCityDecember2011/FinalDraftPlan/FinaldraftCentralCityPlan.pdf

[31] Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority 2011: http://cera.govt.nz/government-re‐

[33] Davoudi, S., et al (2009) *Planning for Climate Change: Strategies for Mitigation and Adap‐*

[35] Muir-Wood, R. (2012) The Christchurch Earthquakes of 2010 and 2011 in Courbage, C. and Stahel, W. *The Geneva Reports-Risk and Insurance Research No 5, Extreme Events*

[36] Macfie, R. (2012) Frustration and Rage, *New Zealand Listener* September 18-14: 25-31.

*and Insurance, 2011 Annus Horribilis,* (Geneva: The Geneva Association).

[28] McKinnon, M. (ed)(1997) *New Zealand Historical Atlas* (Auckland: David Bateman).

[21] Murteira, H. (1999) *Lisboa da Restauração às Luzes* (Lisboa: Editorial Presença).

182 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

*Lisboa 1758: The Baixa Plan Today* (Lisbon, Lisbon Municipal Council).

ry Lisbon', *Journal of Early Modern History 12*, pp. 205-232.

sponse-to-the-august-2011-draft-of-the-central-city-plan

[34] Earthquake Commission 2012: http://canterbury.eqc.govt.nz/faq

[32] Christchurch Central Recovery Plan 2012: http://ccdu.govt.nz/the-plan

dade Autónoma).

Braga 64/76 / XXVII / II:456).

*tation*, London: Earthscan.

*gal-Brasil* (Lisboa, Livros Horizonte).

public/2011/0012/latest/DLM3653522.html

'One of the best ways to understand a system is to disturb it.' [1]

#### **1.1. Resilience**

There are two types of resilience: engineering resilience, and ecological resilience. [2] Engi‐ neering resilience is drawn from environmental sciences where the resistance to disturbance and rate of return to an optimal equilibrium is paramount. It is predicated on understanding the componentry of a system, the universal applicability of resilience principles, and its 'efficiency, constancy and predictability' [3] – all attributes at the core of engineers' briefs for fail-safe design.

Ecological resilience (ex ecological sciences) is about the interrelatedness of a system's components and forces; how a system can undergo change and still retain function and structure; how it can self-organize; and how it can increase the capacity for learning and adaptation. [4] Evolution exemplifies ecological resilience: it is a force (within a system) that uses random mutations of components (of a system) to lasting advantage. But it is hard to predict how it will work. The characteristics of ecological resilience are immeasurable, different at different scales, dependent on persistence, change and unpredictability, balanced by multiple equilibria, and accepting of experimentation, knowing that it is safe to fail. These characteristics may not always be apparent, but will probably surface when there is a disturb‐ ance, when there is a need to adapt. [5] Nature tells us, paradoxically, that it is perhaps a mistake to try too hard to avoid shocks; that stability lets risk accumulate without providing capability or capacity to deal with disaster; and that volatility actually keeps things manageable [6].

In the wake of apocalyptic disturbances, such as hurricanes, floods and earthquakes, the concept of resilience has penetrated recent urbanism theory. But which type of resilience?

Engineering resilience, one would think, should have a stranglehold on urban design. The environment of the city – the makeup of the entire field of the city including its landscape, its infrastructure and its buildings – is the componentry of the urban system that needs to 'bounce back' quickly and efficiently to facilitate recovery after a disturbance. It is the focus of engi‐ neers, planners and city makers as they piece together recovery.

and new resources are made available for growth….the warning bell to a resilient thinker is increasing preoccupation with process… a resilient approach would advocate initiating a

Open Space Innovation in Earthquake Affected Cities

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185

So what does urban design innovation look like? Sola de Morales suggests that the Carrer de Ferran, an urban intervention undertaken in the mid 19th century that widened and straight‐ ened a cross street in medieval Barcelona, was 'unquestionably the most innovative urban intervention in the old town…. It was innovative not just in form, but also in its ideological and political underpinnings … [where] the new forms were the driving force of a new era, cultured, egalitarian and progressive, in contrast to the old feudal and aristocratic stratifica‐ tion.' [15] Not as radical as Haussmann's contemporary transformation of Paris, the one kilometre long Carrer de Ferran project (see figure 1) resulted in a modest nine metre street width, and took 40 years to implement. But it established a significance to the role of the city's cross axes which informed later moves such as Gran Via, Carrer Ample and Cerda's Eixample. Carrer de Ferran's innovation was that it set a new agenda for the city's form because the cross streets catalysed exponential growth. But perhaps more importantly Carrer de Ferran suggests that innovation in urban design is not just stylistic or typological, and does not have to be large scale or transformative, but is significant when it rethinks the political, social and civic context with broad catalysing implications. In urban design this is usually a slow process. 'It is very

disturbance or freeing things up to recapture the dynamics of a growth phase.' [14]

difficult to identify clearly the turning points in the history of the city.' [16]

kind of thinking alters the way contexts are interpreted.

Urban design has, of course, always heralded the importance of context, milieu and networks. So does the psychology of creative thinking and the management of knowledge creation. In psychology divergent thinking, the foundation of creativity and innovation, is thought to emanate when designers and artists draw together previously unconnected threads in their context to create the 'new'. [17] Management theory also recognises how new knowledge emerges from tacit or intuitive knowledge via externalisation and socialisation. [18] In urban design, more so than in other spatial design disciplines, social, political, historical and environmental contexts provide the basis for design solutions. But the parallels often stop there usually because urban design practice, unlike urban design theory, uses context objectively (like an engineering science) rather than symbiotically (like an ecology). [19] The problem is compounded by conservative governments and property owners who usually resist broad‐ scale changes to a city: the reality of institutional democracy and Benthian utilitarianism tends to nullify risk and untie the link between creativity and its application in the public domain. Ann Forsyth [20] suggests the opportunity for urban design innovation may be best achieved through academic research because it is ideally placed to take time to explore data and technique, experiment, and ground ideas to remove risk. The large scale effect of Jane Jacobs' thesis on urban systems, [21] and the research into low impact urban ecology provide evidence of the innovative outcomes of research. But it does not have to be the exclusive domain of academics. If recovery could occur at a pace that will allow everyday research and experi‐ mentation to occur, a disturbance may be the ideal opportunity to investigate the potential for innovation, when the system is exposed, when new players are involved in adaptation, when cultural shifts occur in the relationships between people, governments and place, and a new

Yet a city's contextual interrelationships are often the result of its non-linear processes [7]. The nested but discontinuous scales of the building plot, the street block, the neighbourhood and the region [8] demonstrate that a city's morphology is structured like an ecological system. Furthermore, systems-based urbanist theories share ecological sciences' resilience concepts of diversity, modularity, variability and innovation. [9] Hence, we can examine a city's recovery after disturbance in terms of its ecological resilience, in which the agents of adaptation would be urban designers, institutions / government and, more often, community driven by a changing social, cultural, political, economic and environmental contexts.

After a disturbance in nature, competitive forces are at large, creating tensions between the pre-existing trying to re-establish; the aspirants who want to do better; and competition who invite innovation and change, often through experimentation. Does the same happen in a city? How do the agents of adaptation in a city – the government, the urban designers, the com‐ munity – know how, where and at what scale they can innovate? What is innovation in urban design?

#### **1.2. Innovation**

Innovation, whose etymology comes from the Latin word meaning to change, is bilateral. It entails something 'new', and it entails systematic implementation. The 'new' may be new needs, but it may also be 'old' needs that are met in 'new' ways. It can entail 'new' products, 'new' processes, 'new' values, or 'new' technologies. It differs from invention which refers more specifically to ideation: innovation is a change to a system.

The relationship between innovation and disturbance is at the core of commerce and economics literature. Joseph Schumpeter described the distinguishing trait of innovation as 'creative destruction', [10] in which the 'new' wipes out the 'established', calling it radical innovation. Henderson and Clark subsequently recognised slower moving, 'incremental' innovations where systems' architecture may be enhanced rather than destroyed [11]. Tushman et al highlighted the important role of the consumer in innovation: a change to a market is a change to the system, even if it is not accompanied by a new technology [12]. Verganti points out that this process, which culminates in society accepting new 'meanings' of old technologies, is not necessarily led by consumer feedback, but is more often 'design- driven'. [13] Research and development, often by and through design, is thus fundamental to innovation.

Innovation is also one of the hallmarks of a resilient ecological system. 'A resilient system would subsidise experimentation – trying things in different ways – and offer help to those who are willing to change. Enabling innovation is an important way of creating space… Resilience thinking is about embracing change and disturbance rather than denying or constraining it'…When rigid connections and behaviours are broken 'opportunities open up and new resources are made available for growth….the warning bell to a resilient thinker is increasing preoccupation with process… a resilient approach would advocate initiating a disturbance or freeing things up to recapture the dynamics of a growth phase.' [14]

Engineering resilience, one would think, should have a stranglehold on urban design. The environment of the city – the makeup of the entire field of the city including its landscape, its infrastructure and its buildings – is the componentry of the urban system that needs to 'bounce back' quickly and efficiently to facilitate recovery after a disturbance. It is the focus of engi‐

184 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Yet a city's contextual interrelationships are often the result of its non-linear processes [7]. The nested but discontinuous scales of the building plot, the street block, the neighbourhood and the region [8] demonstrate that a city's morphology is structured like an ecological system. Furthermore, systems-based urbanist theories share ecological sciences' resilience concepts of diversity, modularity, variability and innovation. [9] Hence, we can examine a city's recovery after disturbance in terms of its ecological resilience, in which the agents of adaptation would be urban designers, institutions / government and, more often, community driven by a

After a disturbance in nature, competitive forces are at large, creating tensions between the pre-existing trying to re-establish; the aspirants who want to do better; and competition who invite innovation and change, often through experimentation. Does the same happen in a city? How do the agents of adaptation in a city – the government, the urban designers, the com‐ munity – know how, where and at what scale they can innovate? What is innovation in urban

Innovation, whose etymology comes from the Latin word meaning to change, is bilateral. It entails something 'new', and it entails systematic implementation. The 'new' may be new needs, but it may also be 'old' needs that are met in 'new' ways. It can entail 'new' products, 'new' processes, 'new' values, or 'new' technologies. It differs from invention which refers

The relationship between innovation and disturbance is at the core of commerce and economics literature. Joseph Schumpeter described the distinguishing trait of innovation as 'creative destruction', [10] in which the 'new' wipes out the 'established', calling it radical innovation. Henderson and Clark subsequently recognised slower moving, 'incremental' innovations where systems' architecture may be enhanced rather than destroyed [11]. Tushman et al highlighted the important role of the consumer in innovation: a change to a market is a change to the system, even if it is not accompanied by a new technology [12]. Verganti points out that this process, which culminates in society accepting new 'meanings' of old technologies, is not necessarily led by consumer feedback, but is more often 'design- driven'. [13] Research and

Innovation is also one of the hallmarks of a resilient ecological system. 'A resilient system would subsidise experimentation – trying things in different ways – and offer help to those who are willing to change. Enabling innovation is an important way of creating space… Resilience thinking is about embracing change and disturbance rather than denying or constraining it'…When rigid connections and behaviours are broken 'opportunities open up

development, often by and through design, is thus fundamental to innovation.

neers, planners and city makers as they piece together recovery.

changing social, cultural, political, economic and environmental contexts.

more specifically to ideation: innovation is a change to a system.

design?

**1.2. Innovation**

So what does urban design innovation look like? Sola de Morales suggests that the Carrer de Ferran, an urban intervention undertaken in the mid 19th century that widened and straight‐ ened a cross street in medieval Barcelona, was 'unquestionably the most innovative urban intervention in the old town…. It was innovative not just in form, but also in its ideological and political underpinnings … [where] the new forms were the driving force of a new era, cultured, egalitarian and progressive, in contrast to the old feudal and aristocratic stratifica‐ tion.' [15] Not as radical as Haussmann's contemporary transformation of Paris, the one kilometre long Carrer de Ferran project (see figure 1) resulted in a modest nine metre street width, and took 40 years to implement. But it established a significance to the role of the city's cross axes which informed later moves such as Gran Via, Carrer Ample and Cerda's Eixample. Carrer de Ferran's innovation was that it set a new agenda for the city's form because the cross streets catalysed exponential growth. But perhaps more importantly Carrer de Ferran suggests that innovation in urban design is not just stylistic or typological, and does not have to be large scale or transformative, but is significant when it rethinks the political, social and civic context with broad catalysing implications. In urban design this is usually a slow process. 'It is very difficult to identify clearly the turning points in the history of the city.' [16]

Urban design has, of course, always heralded the importance of context, milieu and networks. So does the psychology of creative thinking and the management of knowledge creation. In psychology divergent thinking, the foundation of creativity and innovation, is thought to emanate when designers and artists draw together previously unconnected threads in their context to create the 'new'. [17] Management theory also recognises how new knowledge emerges from tacit or intuitive knowledge via externalisation and socialisation. [18] In urban design, more so than in other spatial design disciplines, social, political, historical and environmental contexts provide the basis for design solutions. But the parallels often stop there usually because urban design practice, unlike urban design theory, uses context objectively (like an engineering science) rather than symbiotically (like an ecology). [19] The problem is compounded by conservative governments and property owners who usually resist broad‐ scale changes to a city: the reality of institutional democracy and Benthian utilitarianism tends to nullify risk and untie the link between creativity and its application in the public domain. Ann Forsyth [20] suggests the opportunity for urban design innovation may be best achieved through academic research because it is ideally placed to take time to explore data and technique, experiment, and ground ideas to remove risk. The large scale effect of Jane Jacobs' thesis on urban systems, [21] and the research into low impact urban ecology provide evidence of the innovative outcomes of research. But it does not have to be the exclusive domain of academics. If recovery could occur at a pace that will allow everyday research and experi‐ mentation to occur, a disturbance may be the ideal opportunity to investigate the potential for innovation, when the system is exposed, when new players are involved in adaptation, when cultural shifts occur in the relationships between people, governments and place, and a new kind of thinking alters the way contexts are interpreted.

are Freudian parallels: loss leads to grieving which ends when the mourner accepts a substitute for what was lost. [25] The collective memory of the citizenry errs towards a replacement for

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But building back does not necessarily tap into the latencies in a system that an earthquake exposes. The Government's focus in Christchurch on like-for-like replacement of engineered structures (roads etc.) with some improvements – also known as 'betterment' – is a risk averse strategy, built from the remit of engineering resilience. [26] In an interesting development, Christchurch's Port Hills' communities want to rethink the irretrievably lost recreational amenity – not just the infrastructure of transport and utility services, but also the infrastructure of landscape - which was what attracted people there in the first place (see figure 2). The loss of natural and cultural assets has elevated the government-community conflict over what the map of infrastructural recovery includes and looks like. The government wants to just rebuild the roads and utility services; the community wants something that was not there before: a new pathway along the coast that might cement the new-found social capital, might foster the diversity of lost recreation facilities, and might provide an 'essential' redundancy - an access route for when the only main road is blocked by landfall. It is an innovation with the potential to create a new typology of pathways across the city, with far reaching impact on health, culture and environment. But it is the inherent uncertainty of qualitative outcome, its experimental nature that deters Government. Therein lies the paradox of ecological resilience: it needs to be

Can we be sure that change is productive? As an experiment, is it not subject to failure? In a more radical case Tangshan in China, after its 1985 earthquake, reformatted their urban structure in accordance with the then-current (but now-outdated) recovery planning mantra that spreads the components of settlement far enough apart to minimise the impact of a disaster. Institutionally it seems sound, but it left no options for the diversity that urban‐ ism theorists [27] champion. Not surprisingly, problems have arisen because the change was too one-dimensional and predictable. It's hard for Tangshan to reverse this: 'the wide streets, low rise buildings and lack of an identifiable centre of a post-earthquake reconstruc‐ tion have left it somewhat lacking in what some have called "urbane refinements" [28]*.* Such an approach to dispersed-ness is not really palatable in modern urban theory as humanity faces environmental issues of potential resource depletion, increased catastro‐ phes [29] and inexorable population growth [30]. Can we experiment without creating

Scale may provide a clue. Innovation is obviously less risky when experiments occur on the small scale as opposed to the neighbourhood scale or the regional scale. But we are concerned here with urban design, and as scale gets broader government traditionally has an increasingly influential role as the agent of adaptation unless, of course, there is competition from com‐ munity. If, at the broadest scale, risk-averse economics dominate, if community is sidelined, if the blanket approach of 'building back' or 'building back better' is politically adequate, and if fast-tracked formulaic change and mono-functional planning are preferred, the systems of

the known, rather than experimenting for the new.

capable of failure to succeed.

Tangshan's irreversible problems?

**1.4. Clues**

**Figure 1.** Carrer de Ferran, clockwise from top left: the new street cuts horizontally through the old city; street view; and the street forms the plumb line for the Cerda plan of Barcelona. ( source: Sola de Morales, M. Ten Lessons on Bar‐ celona. COAC: Barcelona; 2007.)

#### **1.3. Innovation after disturbance**

In the past, post-disaster adaptation has had divergent consequences. It has led to abandon‐ ment (Antigua in Guatemala, 1773) and irrevocable structural change (Lisbon, 1755) [22]. But broadscale change is usually the exception. Having experienced numerous tremors in the nineteenth century and becoming adept at recovery, San Francisco rebuilt the city without changing its street pattern after the major 1906 earthquake. After the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923, despite authorities' unusually ambitious plans [23], the Japanese citizens wanted stability and relief and strongly opposed major changes to the urban structure. The desire to quickly rebuild their lives promoted rapid rebuilding of the city according to traditional protocols [24]. A similar scenario has arisen after the Christchurch earthquakes in 2010 and 2011, where the seemingly 'safe' option of building back what was there before is an accepted objective in recovery management. The community reiterates, just get 'back to normal'. There are Freudian parallels: loss leads to grieving which ends when the mourner accepts a substitute for what was lost. [25] The collective memory of the citizenry errs towards a replacement for the known, rather than experimenting for the new.

But building back does not necessarily tap into the latencies in a system that an earthquake exposes. The Government's focus in Christchurch on like-for-like replacement of engineered structures (roads etc.) with some improvements – also known as 'betterment' – is a risk averse strategy, built from the remit of engineering resilience. [26] In an interesting development, Christchurch's Port Hills' communities want to rethink the irretrievably lost recreational amenity – not just the infrastructure of transport and utility services, but also the infrastructure of landscape - which was what attracted people there in the first place (see figure 2). The loss of natural and cultural assets has elevated the government-community conflict over what the map of infrastructural recovery includes and looks like. The government wants to just rebuild the roads and utility services; the community wants something that was not there before: a new pathway along the coast that might cement the new-found social capital, might foster the diversity of lost recreation facilities, and might provide an 'essential' redundancy - an access route for when the only main road is blocked by landfall. It is an innovation with the potential to create a new typology of pathways across the city, with far reaching impact on health, culture and environment. But it is the inherent uncertainty of qualitative outcome, its experimental nature that deters Government. Therein lies the paradox of ecological resilience: it needs to be capable of failure to succeed.

Can we be sure that change is productive? As an experiment, is it not subject to failure? In a more radical case Tangshan in China, after its 1985 earthquake, reformatted their urban structure in accordance with the then-current (but now-outdated) recovery planning mantra that spreads the components of settlement far enough apart to minimise the impact of a disaster. Institutionally it seems sound, but it left no options for the diversity that urban‐ ism theorists [27] champion. Not surprisingly, problems have arisen because the change was too one-dimensional and predictable. It's hard for Tangshan to reverse this: 'the wide streets, low rise buildings and lack of an identifiable centre of a post-earthquake reconstruc‐ tion have left it somewhat lacking in what some have called "urbane refinements" [28]*.* Such an approach to dispersed-ness is not really palatable in modern urban theory as humanity faces environmental issues of potential resource depletion, increased catastro‐ phes [29] and inexorable population growth [30]. Can we experiment without creating Tangshan's irreversible problems?

#### **1.4. Clues**

**Figure 1.** Carrer de Ferran, clockwise from top left: the new street cuts horizontally through the old city; street view; and the street forms the plumb line for the Cerda plan of Barcelona. ( source: Sola de Morales, M. Ten Lessons on Bar‐

186 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

In the past, post-disaster adaptation has had divergent consequences. It has led to abandon‐ ment (Antigua in Guatemala, 1773) and irrevocable structural change (Lisbon, 1755) [22]. But broadscale change is usually the exception. Having experienced numerous tremors in the nineteenth century and becoming adept at recovery, San Francisco rebuilt the city without changing its street pattern after the major 1906 earthquake. After the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923, despite authorities' unusually ambitious plans [23], the Japanese citizens wanted stability and relief and strongly opposed major changes to the urban structure. The desire to quickly rebuild their lives promoted rapid rebuilding of the city according to traditional protocols [24]. A similar scenario has arisen after the Christchurch earthquakes in 2010 and 2011, where the seemingly 'safe' option of building back what was there before is an accepted objective in recovery management. The community reiterates, just get 'back to normal'. There

celona. COAC: Barcelona; 2007.)

**1.3. Innovation after disturbance**

Scale may provide a clue. Innovation is obviously less risky when experiments occur on the small scale as opposed to the neighbourhood scale or the regional scale. But we are concerned here with urban design, and as scale gets broader government traditionally has an increasingly influential role as the agent of adaptation unless, of course, there is competition from com‐ munity. If, at the broadest scale, risk-averse economics dominate, if community is sidelined, if the blanket approach of 'building back' or 'building back better' is politically adequate, and if fast-tracked formulaic change and mono-functional planning are preferred, the systems of

research and experimentation that are embedded in ecological resilience are unable to gain traction. To achieve ecological resilience at larger scales and buy time for design research, perhaps there needs to be a greater involvement by community in public space design, because the community has more time to explore options and understand their implications and meaning, more time to understand what is 'possible in a system'. [31] Not surprisingly ecological resilience theories place emphasis on society: the concepts of social capital and overlapping governance are important threads in social and urban theories of resilience [32]. Context provides another clue, especially the cultural context. Cultural context is invariably woven into the physical context of the city and its landscape. Cognitive forces such as the memory of an earthquake provide a re-reading of physical context and how it might change to satisfy the need for safety. The sweeping destruction may seldom effect structural innova‐ tion, but it will shift cultural perceptions of what is important and valued, which could affect the redesign of the spatial language of the urban fabric. So, if communities have a say in public space design, the ensuing change in cultural context will influence adaptation of urban fabric, initiating innovation in the meaning of public space and its role in the recovery process. Public

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This chapter discusses how innovation might, at appropriate points, be a catalyst for recovery, what influences it and what it contributes to the resilience of an urban system. By looking at case studies we are able to match community adaptation with urban morphological change and establish a basis for evaluation of a fine grained resilience. To do this we have looked at the newly constructed open spaces of Kobe after its 1995 earthquake, after it has 'recovered' (normally considered to be a 10 year period). [33] We highlight five urban parks that show how innovation operates at the urban and community scale as a key part of recovery. We review the way people adapt their land holdings, their attitudes to community and their

In 1868, when the Meiji restoration opened Japan to international trade, Kobe was one of the key ports that facilitated Japan's transformation from commercialisation to industrialization [34].The geomorphological transect of Rokko Mountains, lowlands and deepwater harbour all within close proximity had served a string of rice farming, fishing and merchant communities administered by the centralised nationalistic state of Japan's hierarchical shogunate. By the 1920s two of the most powerful steel fabricators in the world had appropriated most of the port for its plant. Institutional planning for urbanisation focused on industrial and transport infrastructure. But urban governance of built form and urban parks was poor. [35] As the nonrural population grew with factory employment, the rice paddy was adapted as the template of urban residential structure: the paddy fields were reclaimed for low-rise housing, often sold to multiple owners, with plots set out in a dense, finely-grained matrix accessed by a squared network of alleys; the raised edges of the paddy field formed a gridded city road network in

space potentially could mean something 'new' after an earthquake.

activities in a city after a major disturbance.

**2.1. Kobe's urban morphology pre 1995**

**2. Kobe's earthquake**

**Figure 2.** The collapse of Christchurch's Port Hills in the 2010/11, where fallen cliff faces have not only led to loss of property, but have also threatened access and recreation opportunities. There is now tension between community and government on the rebuilding of the road, pathways and other open space facilities (sources top: N. Jones; below: BeckerFraser Photos).

research and experimentation that are embedded in ecological resilience are unable to gain traction. To achieve ecological resilience at larger scales and buy time for design research, perhaps there needs to be a greater involvement by community in public space design, because the community has more time to explore options and understand their implications and meaning, more time to understand what is 'possible in a system'. [31] Not surprisingly ecological resilience theories place emphasis on society: the concepts of social capital and overlapping governance are important threads in social and urban theories of resilience [32].

Context provides another clue, especially the cultural context. Cultural context is invariably woven into the physical context of the city and its landscape. Cognitive forces such as the memory of an earthquake provide a re-reading of physical context and how it might change to satisfy the need for safety. The sweeping destruction may seldom effect structural innova‐ tion, but it will shift cultural perceptions of what is important and valued, which could affect the redesign of the spatial language of the urban fabric. So, if communities have a say in public space design, the ensuing change in cultural context will influence adaptation of urban fabric, initiating innovation in the meaning of public space and its role in the recovery process. Public space potentially could mean something 'new' after an earthquake.

This chapter discusses how innovation might, at appropriate points, be a catalyst for recovery, what influences it and what it contributes to the resilience of an urban system. By looking at case studies we are able to match community adaptation with urban morphological change and establish a basis for evaluation of a fine grained resilience. To do this we have looked at the newly constructed open spaces of Kobe after its 1995 earthquake, after it has 'recovered' (normally considered to be a 10 year period). [33] We highlight five urban parks that show how innovation operates at the urban and community scale as a key part of recovery. We review the way people adapt their land holdings, their attitudes to community and their activities in a city after a major disturbance.

#### **2. Kobe's earthquake**

**Figure 2.** The collapse of Christchurch's Port Hills in the 2010/11, where fallen cliff faces have not only led to loss of property, but have also threatened access and recreation opportunities. There is now tension between community and government on the rebuilding of the road, pathways and other open space facilities (sources top: N. Jones; below:

188 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

BeckerFraser Photos).

#### **2.1. Kobe's urban morphology pre 1995**

In 1868, when the Meiji restoration opened Japan to international trade, Kobe was one of the key ports that facilitated Japan's transformation from commercialisation to industrialization [34].The geomorphological transect of Rokko Mountains, lowlands and deepwater harbour all within close proximity had served a string of rice farming, fishing and merchant communities administered by the centralised nationalistic state of Japan's hierarchical shogunate. By the 1920s two of the most powerful steel fabricators in the world had appropriated most of the port for its plant. Institutional planning for urbanisation focused on industrial and transport infrastructure. But urban governance of built form and urban parks was poor. [35] As the nonrural population grew with factory employment, the rice paddy was adapted as the template of urban residential structure: the paddy fields were reclaimed for low-rise housing, often sold to multiple owners, with plots set out in a dense, finely-grained matrix accessed by a squared network of alleys; the raised edges of the paddy field formed a gridded city road network in 100 metre squares; in plan, the squares (cho) rotate with the topography to form terraces, once part of the paddy field system's hydrology, now the definition of neighbourhoods (see figure 3). Open space was located on the periphery or in conjunction with temples, and as such there was a lack of spatial diversity in the size of parks. There was no doubt a strong reverence for nature in the large urban parks, but many of the smaller urban parks 'increasingly in the hands of municipal bureaucrats, became hard-surfaced and functionalist, with cookie-cutter layouts and standardized equipment, and remained so for much of the twentieth century.' [36] They were rarely part of the housing pattern. Streets provided the main setting for community life and activity.

During WWII American bombs laid waste much of the city, but Japan modernised in a programmatically functional way: building highways and transport and industrial infrastruc‐ ture. Private land units were unaffected, except when the land readajustment instruments juggled free holdings to make way for wider arterial roads or transport routes [37]. Moderni‐ sation was not deferential to the value of open space within the city: city planners focused on efficiencies of transport while few controls were exercised over private development. As a result, Kobe faced the 3rd millennium as a dense and vibrant city rich in street culture with a strong sense of identity afforded by its neighbourhood densities. Unlike the disappearing cities of Fordist modernism [38], Kobe's wartime disasters had primed the city for diversification when its industrial plant became uncompetitive in a bullish Asian economy. The earthquake of 1995 was a further catalyst for change.

#### **2.2. Kobe post 1995**

The earthquake caused significant damage to the infrastructure of transport, the port areas, and to the traditional housing areas. The government's response was typical engineering resilience - infrastructure was replaced as quickly as possible, upgraded with improvements to meet modern standards [39]. 'The object of recovery is to aid victims to get back to normal life…measures are conducted as swiftly and smoothly as possible' [40]. In some places Modernist practices such as streets widening, high rise buildings, and local parks of one hectare were introduced – a universal approach to urban planning without input from local culture. It appears that the government pursued recovery as a means of renewing fabric, without addressing change in community culture. Shin Nagata was a model. The streets and built form were all transformed to create a safe and accessible urban setting, where density was relocated vertically. But the change was not really innovation: more a reversion to globally established standards.

Modernisation did not coalesce altogether with Japanese culture. A grass roots planning movement called Machizukuri (community-building) emerged out of citizen participation and community organisation in the 1980s and a reaction to globalised modernism [41]. After Kobe's earthquake, community action galvanized because of the slow and somewhat inhumane response of the national government to the earthquake victims [42]. Machizukuri and gov‐ ernment contested the urban landscape. Land readjustment, park design and street layouts all became areas of tension, where the community sought to address the lessons of the earthquake and experiment in the way they might shape their public spaces. Although some commentators

**Figure 3.** From top left: Rice paddies formed the basis of Kobe's street and block grid (Source: Ishihama et al. Nikon No Bi Vol 14 Kansai. Kokusai Joho Sha. (1968) ); typical cho layout and street grid (Source: Miyasada Akira , cited in Yasui, E. Community vulnerability and Capacity in Post-Disaster Recovery: the cases of Mano and Mikura Neighbour‐ hoods in the wake of the 1995 Kobe Earthquake. Unpublished PhD thesis. UBC. (2007)); aerial view of Kobe in 1861 (Source: Kobayashi, I. Kobe: 100 years of urban history. Unpublished paper. 2003.); typical street scenes in traditional

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housing (M. Bryant).

100 metre squares; in plan, the squares (cho) rotate with the topography to form terraces, once part of the paddy field system's hydrology, now the definition of neighbourhoods (see figure 3). Open space was located on the periphery or in conjunction with temples, and as such there was a lack of spatial diversity in the size of parks. There was no doubt a strong reverence for nature in the large urban parks, but many of the smaller urban parks 'increasingly in the hands of municipal bureaucrats, became hard-surfaced and functionalist, with cookie-cutter layouts and standardized equipment, and remained so for much of the twentieth century.' [36] They were rarely part of the housing pattern. Streets provided the main setting for community life

190 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

During WWII American bombs laid waste much of the city, but Japan modernised in a programmatically functional way: building highways and transport and industrial infrastruc‐ ture. Private land units were unaffected, except when the land readajustment instruments juggled free holdings to make way for wider arterial roads or transport routes [37]. Moderni‐ sation was not deferential to the value of open space within the city: city planners focused on efficiencies of transport while few controls were exercised over private development. As a result, Kobe faced the 3rd millennium as a dense and vibrant city rich in street culture with a strong sense of identity afforded by its neighbourhood densities. Unlike the disappearing cities of Fordist modernism [38], Kobe's wartime disasters had primed the city for diversification when its industrial plant became uncompetitive in a bullish Asian economy. The earthquake

The earthquake caused significant damage to the infrastructure of transport, the port areas, and to the traditional housing areas. The government's response was typical engineering resilience - infrastructure was replaced as quickly as possible, upgraded with improvements to meet modern standards [39]. 'The object of recovery is to aid victims to get back to normal life…measures are conducted as swiftly and smoothly as possible' [40]. In some places Modernist practices such as streets widening, high rise buildings, and local parks of one hectare were introduced – a universal approach to urban planning without input from local culture. It appears that the government pursued recovery as a means of renewing fabric, without addressing change in community culture. Shin Nagata was a model. The streets and built form were all transformed to create a safe and accessible urban setting, where density was relocated vertically. But the change was not really innovation: more a reversion to globally established

Modernisation did not coalesce altogether with Japanese culture. A grass roots planning movement called Machizukuri (community-building) emerged out of citizen participation and community organisation in the 1980s and a reaction to globalised modernism [41]. After Kobe's earthquake, community action galvanized because of the slow and somewhat inhumane response of the national government to the earthquake victims [42]. Machizukuri and gov‐ ernment contested the urban landscape. Land readjustment, park design and street layouts all became areas of tension, where the community sought to address the lessons of the earthquake and experiment in the way they might shape their public spaces. Although some commentators

and activity.

of 1995 was a further catalyst for change.

**2.2. Kobe post 1995**

standards.

**Figure 3.** From top left: Rice paddies formed the basis of Kobe's street and block grid (Source: Ishihama et al. Nikon No Bi Vol 14 Kansai. Kokusai Joho Sha. (1968) ); typical cho layout and street grid (Source: Miyasada Akira , cited in Yasui, E. Community vulnerability and Capacity in Post-Disaster Recovery: the cases of Mano and Mikura Neighbour‐ hoods in the wake of the 1995 Kobe Earthquake. Unpublished PhD thesis. UBC. (2007)); aerial view of Kobe in 1861 (Source: Kobayashi, I. Kobe: 100 years of urban history. Unpublished paper. 2003.); typical street scenes in traditional housing (M. Bryant).

have dismissed Machizukuri as being characterised by 'long-drawn-out procedures' that 'generally operate only at very closely limited spatial reference levels' [43], some of the outcomes that have emanated in the aftermath show an innovation in the way open space has been researched and re-imagined by community will.

Is it a short lived over reaction to a crisis? Maybe, but, because it also tells the story of what these people experienced, why this place is significant, and how it serves as a physical memorial of the crisis that passed, it embodies the grieving process of the community. The park's innovation is not in the stylistic physical detail, but in how it has intensified the recreational and social programmes of a community in a small park. It is another way of thinking what a suburban park's role might be in Japan. The park needs to embody memories as well as Arcadian and civic interventions to make a place resilient. In doing so it liberates

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**Figure 4.** Rokko Kaze No Sate Koen: clockwise from top right: Aerial image of Rokko michi before the earthquake (Source: Geospatial Information Authority of Japan), showing location of future park; photo of plan of park; children playing beside water pump; children playing beside seat which has potential to act as toilet; vegetable gardens and

community centre. (Photos by P. Allan)

the neighbourhood of institutional overtones and allows adaptation to take place.

#### **3. Five parks**

There are five parks that seem to demonstrate various aspects of innovation in post- earthquake Kobe. All of the parks were slow to emerge, being built as part of the 'development restoration period', the final phase of recovery identified by Haas [44] and which Mileti [45] identified as a social process as well as a physical process. Each shows an approach to innovation that demonstrates an ecological resilience, where experimentation in form was driven not by institutional compliance, but by the changing community values that sought to integrate the disparate but important threads of Modernisation, social heritage, grass-roots politics and the memory of the disaster. The latter influence is pervasive: the earthquake became part of the consciousness of the community, a trigger for formal change. Not surprisingly, four out of five are bottom-up community-designed parks. The other is a government design commission which tests the social norms embodied in the formal idea of an urban park.

#### **3.1. Rokko Kaze No Sate Koen**

Traditional typologies of urban open spaces are either a place of respite, or a place of civic activity. The former are often dressed like an Arcadian idyll, the latter a fusion of simplicity and activity. Suburban parks often sit somewhere between these two, mixing both, without inventing the new. But can there be another typology?

*Rokko Kaze No Sate Koen* (see figure 4) is the ultimate community park, built in Rokko Michi, a dense urban area. The park was established after land readjustment established a one hectare space and government agreed to community involvement in the design. The land readjustment took six months; but the design of the park took seven years, mainly because there was so much interaction, discussion and research amongst the political atmosphere of an empowered community. The idea for the park embodied respite. Trees, vegetation and open space were paramount. The park also incorporated places for civic activity. A community centre was prominently positioned to frame an edge of the park; a baseball pitch was defined; and an outdoor gathering space and activity areas addressed needs of children and adults.

But what is interesting and innovative was that each of these somewhat traditional ideas was interpreted in a way that could only have come out of the experience of living through an earthquake. Play areas were dominated by water bodies, that had pumps and wells that anticipate the next disaster. Seats were designed to be adapted for cooking pits, or toilets. Tree species were selected for edible fruit. The park's form provided for recreation and civic activity: the design was a deliberate gesture that embodied intensity of activity throughout and a diversity of spaces in an otherwise everyday setting. But it also addressed the social need for the community to be self-sufficient for the next disturbance.

Is it a short lived over reaction to a crisis? Maybe, but, because it also tells the story of what these people experienced, why this place is significant, and how it serves as a physical memorial of the crisis that passed, it embodies the grieving process of the community. The park's innovation is not in the stylistic physical detail, but in how it has intensified the recreational and social programmes of a community in a small park. It is another way of thinking what a suburban park's role might be in Japan. The park needs to embody memories as well as Arcadian and civic interventions to make a place resilient. In doing so it liberates the neighbourhood of institutional overtones and allows adaptation to take place.

have dismissed Machizukuri as being characterised by 'long-drawn-out procedures' that 'generally operate only at very closely limited spatial reference levels' [43], some of the outcomes that have emanated in the aftermath show an innovation in the way open space has

192 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

There are five parks that seem to demonstrate various aspects of innovation in post- earthquake Kobe. All of the parks were slow to emerge, being built as part of the 'development restoration period', the final phase of recovery identified by Haas [44] and which Mileti [45] identified as a social process as well as a physical process. Each shows an approach to innovation that demonstrates an ecological resilience, where experimentation in form was driven not by institutional compliance, but by the changing community values that sought to integrate the disparate but important threads of Modernisation, social heritage, grass-roots politics and the memory of the disaster. The latter influence is pervasive: the earthquake became part of the consciousness of the community, a trigger for formal change. Not surprisingly, four out of five are bottom-up community-designed parks. The other is a government design commission

Traditional typologies of urban open spaces are either a place of respite, or a place of civic activity. The former are often dressed like an Arcadian idyll, the latter a fusion of simplicity and activity. Suburban parks often sit somewhere between these two, mixing both, without

*Rokko Kaze No Sate Koen* (see figure 4) is the ultimate community park, built in Rokko Michi, a dense urban area. The park was established after land readjustment established a one hectare space and government agreed to community involvement in the design. The land readjustment took six months; but the design of the park took seven years, mainly because there was so much interaction, discussion and research amongst the political atmosphere of an empowered community. The idea for the park embodied respite. Trees, vegetation and open space were paramount. The park also incorporated places for civic activity. A community centre was prominently positioned to frame an edge of the park; a baseball pitch was defined; and an

outdoor gathering space and activity areas addressed needs of children and adults.

But what is interesting and innovative was that each of these somewhat traditional ideas was interpreted in a way that could only have come out of the experience of living through an earthquake. Play areas were dominated by water bodies, that had pumps and wells that anticipate the next disaster. Seats were designed to be adapted for cooking pits, or toilets. Tree species were selected for edible fruit. The park's form provided for recreation and civic activity: the design was a deliberate gesture that embodied intensity of activity throughout and a diversity of spaces in an otherwise everyday setting. But it also addressed the social need for

which tests the social norms embodied in the formal idea of an urban park.

been researched and re-imagined by community will.

inventing the new. But can there be another typology?

the community to be self-sufficient for the next disturbance.

**3. Five parks**

**3.1. Rokko Kaze No Sate Koen**

**Figure 4.** Rokko Kaze No Sate Koen: clockwise from top right: Aerial image of Rokko michi before the earthquake (Source: Geospatial Information Authority of Japan), showing location of future park; photo of plan of park; children playing beside water pump; children playing beside seat which has potential to act as toilet; vegetable gardens and community centre. (Photos by P. Allan)

#### **3.2. Matsumoto**

Suburban parks want to be all things to all people: to do this they need to be a size that can reflect the needs of its catchment of population and fulfil recreational / civic roles. What if they don't? What if they are just there to provide open space, and what if they are just there as a symbol of the neighbourhood and its legibility. The pocket parks in Matsumoto (see figure 5) assume this role, and they do it not by concentrating the essence of the neighbourhood in one place, but by creating 10 more or less identical parks in 10 more or less identical chome, in a necklace that threads its way across the neighbourhood.

The urban experiment is their size and proximity to each other. Institutional land readjustment urged this neighbourhood to adopt a large 1 hectare park, but the community pursued an idea that each chome wanted spatial structure to match the scale of their chome. So ten parks were created. The simple modularity of the system shows the importance of the neighbourhood of chome as an urban unit fundamental to Kobe's settlement. There are, of course, antecedents to this idea, not the least of which is embodied in Spanish colonization and their laws of the Indies, which some commentators say emanate from earthquakes and the need for accessible open space. [46] The integration of this idea in a modernist planning framework is extraordi‐ nary, because efficiencies are sacrificed to achieve a greater sense of legibility and ownership. The size of community is an important aspect often disregarded in urban planning which is preoccupied with a critical mass that creates efficiencies. Matsumoto represents another innovate approach to open space because it experiments with the size of parks rather than their

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And the clocks serve as a reminder of the bonds of the small community in times of disaster.

Can a downtown urban park be a community park? If there is no one living around a park, how does it become part of the everyday lives of people who know each other? How does it come part of their identity, their collective memory? And if it is surrounded by multistory intersecting motorways, doesn't it look like urban planning gone wrong? More often the prescription for the siting of urban parks entails natural beauty, lots of residents nearby, and

Minato No Mori is an urban park that breaks the rules. It is a large urban parkland space, divorced from the harbour, badly connected to the city's business district and framed by motorways. Yet it is here, on disused railyards, that community driven by a newly found momentum of social capital (not government driven by mitigation of impact) resolved to create an oasis in the city's transport infrastructure, and in so doing challenged the monofunctional

The three hectare park (see figure 6) has a reasonably traditional structure: a large flexible centre dominated by a grass space, and an intense edge either programmed for community gardens and play, or planted with forest. In one area is a traditional physical memorial to the earthquake. In another are the defacto memorials: the community spaces that provide lifelines to the next event: a place for gathering and camping, an elevated area for viewing problems, water tanks and place for food security. It is framed not by well-proportioned buildings, as

The approach exemplifies diversity and its role in resilience in a number of ways. Firstly it shows that parkland can diversify monofunctional pieces of infrastructure, so as to say space under freeways is not wasted. It also shows the unorthodoxy that freeways are not necessarily alien scaled objects in an urban landscape, but rather a piece of topography that can be addressed and integrated. And finally it shows at the detailed scale the importance of diversity

urban formula would suggest, but by spaghetti of an overhead road system.

formal or programmatic content.

infrastructural systems that dominate urban planning.

**3.3. Minato No Mori**

a civic ambience.

**Figure 5.** Photo of maps of Matsumoto showing parks before and after in each of the chomes; image of one of the pocket parks (Photos by P.Allan).

Formally there is not much that distinguishes these parks. They each form an off-centre centerpiece to a modest chome – the 100m square Japanese street block. Each is within 50 metres of all the houses in its chome, and no more than 100metres from each other. Each park is tiny: 20m x 20m, and each has a gravel area, a few playground equipment pieces, a water pump and a clock. Placing each in the heart of the neighbourhood is relatively orthodox piece of urban planning, but they don't have the diversity to accommodate the broad range of needs of the community. Instead they just repeat themselves. Inefficient? Redundant? Yes, but these are some of the hallmarks of a resilient system.

The urban experiment is their size and proximity to each other. Institutional land readjustment urged this neighbourhood to adopt a large 1 hectare park, but the community pursued an idea that each chome wanted spatial structure to match the scale of their chome. So ten parks were created. The simple modularity of the system shows the importance of the neighbourhood of chome as an urban unit fundamental to Kobe's settlement. There are, of course, antecedents to this idea, not the least of which is embodied in Spanish colonization and their laws of the Indies, which some commentators say emanate from earthquakes and the need for accessible open space. [46] The integration of this idea in a modernist planning framework is extraordi‐ nary, because efficiencies are sacrificed to achieve a greater sense of legibility and ownership. The size of community is an important aspect often disregarded in urban planning which is preoccupied with a critical mass that creates efficiencies. Matsumoto represents another innovate approach to open space because it experiments with the size of parks rather than their formal or programmatic content.

And the clocks serve as a reminder of the bonds of the small community in times of disaster.

#### **3.3. Minato No Mori**

**3.2. Matsumoto**

pocket parks (Photos by P.Allan).

are some of the hallmarks of a resilient system.

Suburban parks want to be all things to all people: to do this they need to be a size that can reflect the needs of its catchment of population and fulfil recreational / civic roles. What if they don't? What if they are just there to provide open space, and what if they are just there as a symbol of the neighbourhood and its legibility. The pocket parks in Matsumoto (see figure 5) assume this role, and they do it not by concentrating the essence of the neighbourhood in one place, but by creating 10 more or less identical parks in 10 more or less identical chome,

194 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

**Figure 5.** Photo of maps of Matsumoto showing parks before and after in each of the chomes; image of one of the

Formally there is not much that distinguishes these parks. They each form an off-centre centerpiece to a modest chome – the 100m square Japanese street block. Each is within 50 metres of all the houses in its chome, and no more than 100metres from each other. Each park is tiny: 20m x 20m, and each has a gravel area, a few playground equipment pieces, a water pump and a clock. Placing each in the heart of the neighbourhood is relatively orthodox piece of urban planning, but they don't have the diversity to accommodate the broad range of needs of the community. Instead they just repeat themselves. Inefficient? Redundant? Yes, but these

in a necklace that threads its way across the neighbourhood.

Can a downtown urban park be a community park? If there is no one living around a park, how does it become part of the everyday lives of people who know each other? How does it come part of their identity, their collective memory? And if it is surrounded by multistory intersecting motorways, doesn't it look like urban planning gone wrong? More often the prescription for the siting of urban parks entails natural beauty, lots of residents nearby, and a civic ambience.

Minato No Mori is an urban park that breaks the rules. It is a large urban parkland space, divorced from the harbour, badly connected to the city's business district and framed by motorways. Yet it is here, on disused railyards, that community driven by a newly found momentum of social capital (not government driven by mitigation of impact) resolved to create an oasis in the city's transport infrastructure, and in so doing challenged the monofunctional infrastructural systems that dominate urban planning.

The three hectare park (see figure 6) has a reasonably traditional structure: a large flexible centre dominated by a grass space, and an intense edge either programmed for community gardens and play, or planted with forest. In one area is a traditional physical memorial to the earthquake. In another are the defacto memorials: the community spaces that provide lifelines to the next event: a place for gathering and camping, an elevated area for viewing problems, water tanks and place for food security. It is framed not by well-proportioned buildings, as urban formula would suggest, but by spaghetti of an overhead road system.

The approach exemplifies diversity and its role in resilience in a number of ways. Firstly it shows that parkland can diversify monofunctional pieces of infrastructure, so as to say space under freeways is not wasted. It also shows the unorthodoxy that freeways are not necessarily alien scaled objects in an urban landscape, but rather a piece of topography that can be addressed and integrated. And finally it shows at the detailed scale the importance of diversity

**Figure 6.** Minato No Mori framed by motorways, built on former railway land by the community. Aerial photo: Geo‐ spatial Information Authority of Japan. Top photo: Amakawa Yoshimi, Bottom photos: M.Bryant.

not been exposed before. Some of the traditional residential areas of Shin-nagata were left intact by the earthquake, and after some repair to building stock the area more or less continued to operate as it had. No need to intervene? Perhaps not. But one of the legacies that the earthquake left was an understanding of why open space was important. It was something to be treasured. But there was no room for park in a traditional neighbourhood with multiple ownerships. The only open space in many of these traditional places was disused plots not much bigger than 400metres square, which generally felt 'unhealthy… unattractive… unsafe… insecure... inactive'. [47] The community in cho 1 chome rehabilitated their alleyways with signs for safety and developed a pocket park in one of the disused lots to amplify the qualities of living in a

**Figure 7.** Aerial photo of cho pre earthquake; pavement signage and photo of pocket park established after earth‐ quake destruction left vacant space. Aerial photo: Geospatial Information Authority of Japan. Photos P. Allan

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The park was rehabilitated as simple community space, prepared for the next disaster. It had a water pump, a seat, some flat space and tree planting for shelter and shade. Compared to previous examples this is less overwhelming as a piece of innovation. But the minimal nature

traditional neighbourhood place, and feeling safe (see figure 7).

in park planning: spatial diversity in elements that drive different programs and also temporal diversity that recognises that the park can fulfil functions at different times.

But the need for diversity is not just what this place is about. It also shows a willingness to experiment in the city grid, to free up rigid ideas of monofunctional connections and allow for growth in new ways. In this way the park is more than a formal expression of diversity in urban design it is also an expansion of the potential for community to colonise the infrastruc‐ ture of the city.

#### **3.4. Komagabayashi cho 1 chome**

Some places weather the impacts of earthquakes and continue to operate as before. But sometimes the impact of a disturbance warrants investigation to reveal the latencies that have

**Figure 7.** Aerial photo of cho pre earthquake; pavement signage and photo of pocket park established after earth‐ quake destruction left vacant space. Aerial photo: Geospatial Information Authority of Japan. Photos P. Allan

not been exposed before. Some of the traditional residential areas of Shin-nagata were left intact by the earthquake, and after some repair to building stock the area more or less continued to operate as it had. No need to intervene? Perhaps not. But one of the legacies that the earthquake left was an understanding of why open space was important. It was something to be treasured. But there was no room for park in a traditional neighbourhood with multiple ownerships. The only open space in many of these traditional places was disused plots not much bigger than 400metres square, which generally felt 'unhealthy… unattractive… unsafe… insecure... inactive'. [47] The community in cho 1 chome rehabilitated their alleyways with signs for safety and developed a pocket park in one of the disused lots to amplify the qualities of living in a traditional neighbourhood place, and feeling safe (see figure 7).

in park planning: spatial diversity in elements that drive different programs and also temporal

**Figure 6.** Minato No Mori framed by motorways, built on former railway land by the community. Aerial photo: Geo‐

But the need for diversity is not just what this place is about. It also shows a willingness to experiment in the city grid, to free up rigid ideas of monofunctional connections and allow for growth in new ways. In this way the park is more than a formal expression of diversity in urban design it is also an expansion of the potential for community to colonise the infrastruc‐

Some places weather the impacts of earthquakes and continue to operate as before. But sometimes the impact of a disturbance warrants investigation to reveal the latencies that have

diversity that recognises that the park can fulfil functions at different times.

spatial Information Authority of Japan. Top photo: Amakawa Yoshimi, Bottom photos: M.Bryant.

196 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

ture of the city.

**3.4. Komagabayashi cho 1 chome**

The park was rehabilitated as simple community space, prepared for the next disaster. It had a water pump, a seat, some flat space and tree planting for shelter and shade. Compared to previous examples this is less overwhelming as a piece of innovation. But the minimal nature of the transformation is the park's point of difference. The community- based designers left the traditional Japanese settlement pattern relatively untouched. The subtle interventions created beauty and the potential for recovery: a place that integrated community meeting areas and a pathway system that gave directions within a community to find safety. It shows that resilience is not so much embodied in changing form, but in changing community attitudes.

This project questions the hierarchical thinking of traditional post-earthquake recovery. It suggests that, even if an earthquake causes little physical destruction, and even if communities have limited resources, there may still be a significant psychological impact that encourages communities to change the physical fabric of their neighbourhoods in innovative ways and retain the unique alleyways and densities of their traditional settlement patterns.

#### **3.5. Waterfront park**

The final case study is not a community project. It is an institutional project, designed by one of Japan's great architects, Tadao Ando. The park shows qualities that are unusual for a waterfront: its formal expression is a series of garden-scaled rooms mostly screening the harbour view; its spatial language controls and frames the vast scenery rather than confronting it; and its programme is contemplation, achieved at a human scale, not at the scale of industrial waterfronts. The outcome is a sense of safety. In so doing Ando reinterprets Japanese culture in a globalized modern context.

Waterfront parks have been following a formula for the last 50 years when heavy industry has been forced out, containerization shipping has made ports more efficient and cities have sought to diversify. Kobe was undergoing this transformation prior to the earthquake, and the Waterfront Park was intended to be part of the gentrification of industrial space by drawing on the industrial or archaeological heritage. But an earthquake has a way of wiping out the heritage: needing to start anew, the tableau rasa. So how can a park cling to its context when the context has been erased?

Firstly, a caveat: it may be too early and too subjective to say whether the experiments were an innovative-defining success that could add knowledge to the generic ideas of open space design. The projects are each intertwined with a specific community, a specific place and a specific spatial morphology, and so the innovations will take time before they germinate

**Figure 8.** Ando's contemplative Waterfront Park, with 'community rooms'. Photos: P. Allan; aerial view from Jodidio,

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Secondly there is clearly an innovation in process of park procurement that has occurred as a result of the earthquake. This process stemmed from the competitive and catalytic tension between the agents of adaptation; between the institutional planning agencies and the small scale designers of the Machizukuri. The competition was not just over control of the outcome, but over the process. While both government and community had a role in rebuilding urban fabric, the design of each park was hard fought by the community, and the outcome appears to be highly treasured. Furthermore, each park then took a long time to come to fruition, because they each took time to be researched, debated and explored at the micro scale of the community after the earthquake. Each of these projects became (perhaps unintentionally) experiments in the social processes of form making, where the social processes were more important and more innovative than the formal outcomes. This long and risky and unpredict‐

elsewhere, if at all.

P. Ando: Complete Works. Hong Kong: Taschen. 2007

Tadao Ando's Waterfront Park at HAT (see figure 8) is exemplar of rethinking spaces in parks using the historical context of Japans garden culture [48]. It subdivides space for community ownership rather than as a grand gesture where one can see all. It does this formally by creating a series of park spaces – empty gardens separated by walls. The interconnected walls create a maze of connections, but also allow spaces for people to contemplate – not dissimilar to traditional Japanese gardens which embody Taoism. It abandons the idea that a park needs to be open with surveillance. The spaces in the park provide areas where people can gather but be apart. The tension between the need for gathering and privacy is summarized perfectly. In many ways this park is a memorial to that attitude and to the spirit of Kobe. In this way the park is an innovation not only in form but in reinventing the Japanese psyche in a modern setting.

#### **4. Discussion**

There are some important considerations from this collection of projects.

of the transformation is the park's point of difference. The community- based designers left the traditional Japanese settlement pattern relatively untouched. The subtle interventions created beauty and the potential for recovery: a place that integrated community meeting areas and a pathway system that gave directions within a community to find safety. It shows that resilience is not so much embodied in changing form, but in changing community attitudes. This project questions the hierarchical thinking of traditional post-earthquake recovery. It suggests that, even if an earthquake causes little physical destruction, and even if communities have limited resources, there may still be a significant psychological impact that encourages communities to change the physical fabric of their neighbourhoods in innovative ways and

The final case study is not a community project. It is an institutional project, designed by one of Japan's great architects, Tadao Ando. The park shows qualities that are unusual for a waterfront: its formal expression is a series of garden-scaled rooms mostly screening the harbour view; its spatial language controls and frames the vast scenery rather than confronting it; and its programme is contemplation, achieved at a human scale, not at the scale of industrial waterfronts. The outcome is a sense of safety. In so doing Ando reinterprets Japanese culture

Waterfront parks have been following a formula for the last 50 years when heavy industry has been forced out, containerization shipping has made ports more efficient and cities have sought to diversify. Kobe was undergoing this transformation prior to the earthquake, and the Waterfront Park was intended to be part of the gentrification of industrial space by drawing on the industrial or archaeological heritage. But an earthquake has a way of wiping out the heritage: needing to start anew, the tableau rasa. So how can a park cling to its context when

Tadao Ando's Waterfront Park at HAT (see figure 8) is exemplar of rethinking spaces in parks using the historical context of Japans garden culture [48]. It subdivides space for community ownership rather than as a grand gesture where one can see all. It does this formally by creating a series of park spaces – empty gardens separated by walls. The interconnected walls create a maze of connections, but also allow spaces for people to contemplate – not dissimilar to traditional Japanese gardens which embody Taoism. It abandons the idea that a park needs to be open with surveillance. The spaces in the park provide areas where people can gather but be apart. The tension between the need for gathering and privacy is summarized perfectly. In many ways this park is a memorial to that attitude and to the spirit of Kobe. In this way the park is an innovation not only in form but in reinventing the Japanese psyche in a modern

There are some important considerations from this collection of projects.

retain the unique alleyways and densities of their traditional settlement patterns.

198 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

**3.5. Waterfront park**

in a globalized modern context.

the context has been erased?

setting.

**4. Discussion**

**Figure 8.** Ando's contemplative Waterfront Park, with 'community rooms'. Photos: P. Allan; aerial view from Jodidio, P. Ando: Complete Works. Hong Kong: Taschen. 2007

Firstly, a caveat: it may be too early and too subjective to say whether the experiments were an innovative-defining success that could add knowledge to the generic ideas of open space design. The projects are each intertwined with a specific community, a specific place and a specific spatial morphology, and so the innovations will take time before they germinate elsewhere, if at all.

Secondly there is clearly an innovation in process of park procurement that has occurred as a result of the earthquake. This process stemmed from the competitive and catalytic tension between the agents of adaptation; between the institutional planning agencies and the small scale designers of the Machizukuri. The competition was not just over control of the outcome, but over the process. While both government and community had a role in rebuilding urban fabric, the design of each park was hard fought by the community, and the outcome appears to be highly treasured. Furthermore, each park then took a long time to come to fruition, because they each took time to be researched, debated and explored at the micro scale of the community after the earthquake. Each of these projects became (perhaps unintentionally) experiments in the social processes of form making, where the social processes were more important and more innovative than the formal outcomes. This long and risky and unpredict‐ able procurement process, precipitated by competition, was itself an innovation, a new way of producing public space.

The success of the outcomes may not be clear for some time: they may not be stylistically creative, and perhaps need even more research, but they may, instead of entrenching the status quo of the 'efficient', provide a basis for a new way of thinking about space that addresses the

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Knowledge of the development of the community parks in Kobe was developed from the personal conversations with Koboyashi Ikuo and Amakawa Yoshimi from Kobe's Commun‐ ity / Communication / Co-operative Space. The conversations were generously translated by Liz Maly. In the field in Kobe, Yasmin Bhattacharya greatly assisted with translation. Melanda

Slemint provided valuable interpretations of Christchurch's Port Hills recovery.

\*Address all correspondence to: martin.bryant@vuw.ac.nz, penny.allan@vuw.ac.nz

2 School of Architecture and Design, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Landscape. New York: Princeton Architectural Press.1999: 79-85.

Ga7w&sig=bf7i\_D\_Y5zO\_bst4Kv5QMLkNaoo#v=onepage&q=holling

books.google.co.nz/books?hl=en&lr=&id=C0q7hXO‐ GuY8C&oi=fnd&pg=PA51&dq=holling+1996&ots=6SCzYp‐

1 Landscape Architecture Program, School of Architecture and Design, Victoria University

[1] Descombes G. Shifting Sites: The Swiss Way, Geneva. In: Corner J. (ed.) Recovering

[2] Holling C. Engineering Resilience versus Ecological Resilience. 1996:http://

%201996&f=false (accessed 1 October 2012) and Folke C. Resilience: The Emergence of a Perspective for Social-Ecological Systems Analysis. Global Environmental

persistence of communities.

**Acknowledgements**

**Author details**

**References**

Martin Bryant1\* and Penny Allan2

of Wellington, New Zealand

Change. 2006:16. 253–267.

[3] Holling C. op cit

[4] Folke, C. op.cit.

Thirdly, and leading on from the above, the innovative processes led by the communities has generated an innovation in cultural contexts through spatial change. Importantly, the formal solutions are not necessarily novel: each seemed to take the typical model of the modern park – a non-Japanese urban model of the small park, the neighbourhood park and the urban park. What is interesting is that each park explored cognitive transformations in the idea of public space and what it offered as a place of safety, and as a place of memory. They each had a new social and political meaning. The most material form of these transformations, which have become apparent in the spatial language, is in the divergent ideas of intensity, repetition, diversity and redundancy. It appears that these principles are important qualities in urban design because they demonstrate a re-reading of the physical context and a shift in culture and thereby demonstrate capacity for ecological resilience.

#### **5. Conclusion**

This study lays down an important challenge for urban designers and government agencies working in recovery after disasters. Undoubtedly there will always be a need to patiently work in the interest of citizens in building back what existed prior to any disaster, to replace what was lost and to provide a stronger urban fabric, one with better engineering resilience. But preempting or excluding community involvement in the recovery process can actually make communities more vulnerable [49]. And avoiding risk at all costs will not strengthen com‐ munities against all possible disasters. Although ecological resilience attributes, like innova‐ tion, are unlikely to dominate recovery of urban fabric, they need to be addressed in some way, just as much as engineering resilience does.

Designers therefore need to play a strategic role, negotiating between community and government, while also leading research and experimentation. In this process designers can help find the best way to achieve outcomes for the community with design interventions that are tactical and yet responsive, and assist government with cost effectiveness and timeliness. Part of this approach will entail an understanding of a community's cultural context and how that may be influenced by spatial design. Spatial design by itself may have little meaning. But small scale experiments in public space can be developed in some sort of partnership with active communities to develop an acute understanding of how spatial design can positively affect cultural context and cognitive memory.

The ecological resilience approach is a good model for public space design because, even though it may entail a lot of design research, it suggests that interventions can be targeted and relatively minimal, generated from the 'bottom-up', with whatever is at hand. This kind of design is about adjusting, encouraging innovation and redundancies, making 'space', explor‐ ing new ways and relationships between community and place.

The Kobe examples provide a basis to build up a body of knowledge on how the process of adaptation after disturbances may galvanise innovation and reinforce ecological resilience. The success of the outcomes may not be clear for some time: they may not be stylistically creative, and perhaps need even more research, but they may, instead of entrenching the status quo of the 'efficient', provide a basis for a new way of thinking about space that addresses the persistence of communities.

#### **Acknowledgements**

able procurement process, precipitated by competition, was itself an innovation, a new way

200 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Thirdly, and leading on from the above, the innovative processes led by the communities has generated an innovation in cultural contexts through spatial change. Importantly, the formal solutions are not necessarily novel: each seemed to take the typical model of the modern park – a non-Japanese urban model of the small park, the neighbourhood park and the urban park. What is interesting is that each park explored cognitive transformations in the idea of public space and what it offered as a place of safety, and as a place of memory. They each had a new social and political meaning. The most material form of these transformations, which have become apparent in the spatial language, is in the divergent ideas of intensity, repetition, diversity and redundancy. It appears that these principles are important qualities in urban design because they demonstrate a re-reading of the physical context and a shift in culture and

This study lays down an important challenge for urban designers and government agencies working in recovery after disasters. Undoubtedly there will always be a need to patiently work in the interest of citizens in building back what existed prior to any disaster, to replace what was lost and to provide a stronger urban fabric, one with better engineering resilience. But preempting or excluding community involvement in the recovery process can actually make communities more vulnerable [49]. And avoiding risk at all costs will not strengthen com‐ munities against all possible disasters. Although ecological resilience attributes, like innova‐ tion, are unlikely to dominate recovery of urban fabric, they need to be addressed in some way,

Designers therefore need to play a strategic role, negotiating between community and government, while also leading research and experimentation. In this process designers can help find the best way to achieve outcomes for the community with design interventions that are tactical and yet responsive, and assist government with cost effectiveness and timeliness. Part of this approach will entail an understanding of a community's cultural context and how that may be influenced by spatial design. Spatial design by itself may have little meaning. But small scale experiments in public space can be developed in some sort of partnership with active communities to develop an acute understanding of how spatial design can positively

The ecological resilience approach is a good model for public space design because, even though it may entail a lot of design research, it suggests that interventions can be targeted and relatively minimal, generated from the 'bottom-up', with whatever is at hand. This kind of design is about adjusting, encouraging innovation and redundancies, making 'space', explor‐

The Kobe examples provide a basis to build up a body of knowledge on how the process of adaptation after disturbances may galvanise innovation and reinforce ecological resilience.

of producing public space.

**5. Conclusion**

thereby demonstrate capacity for ecological resilience.

just as much as engineering resilience does.

affect cultural context and cognitive memory.

ing new ways and relationships between community and place.

Knowledge of the development of the community parks in Kobe was developed from the personal conversations with Koboyashi Ikuo and Amakawa Yoshimi from Kobe's Commun‐ ity / Communication / Co-operative Space. The conversations were generously translated by Liz Maly. In the field in Kobe, Yasmin Bhattacharya greatly assisted with translation. Melanda Slemint provided valuable interpretations of Christchurch's Port Hills recovery.

### **Author details**

Martin Bryant1\* and Penny Allan2

\*Address all correspondence to: martin.bryant@vuw.ac.nz, penny.allan@vuw.ac.nz

1 Landscape Architecture Program, School of Architecture and Design, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

2 School of Architecture and Design, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

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[13] Verganti, R. Design-Driven Innovation. Boston: Harvard Business Press.2009.

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[18] Popadiuk, S. and Choo, C. Innovation and knowledge creation: How are these con‐ cepts created? International Journal of Information Management. 2006: 26: 302-312.

[19] Corner J. Ecology and landscape as agents of creativity. In Thompson G., Steiner F.

[20] Forsyth A. Innovation in Urban Design: Does Research help?Journal of Urban De‐

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[22] Tobriner S. Earthquakes and Planning in the 17th and 18th Centuries. Journal of Ar‐

[15] Sola de Morales, M. Ten Lessons on Barcelona. COAC: Barcelona. 2007.

Ecological Design and Planning. New York: JohnWiley. 1997: 80-109

[10] Schumpeter, J. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy.NY:Routledge. 1942: 81–84.


[41] Hein C. Toshikeikaku and Machizukuri in Japanese Urban Planning - the Recon‐ struction of Inner City Neighborhoods in Kobe. Jahrbuch des DIJ (DeutschesInstitut‐ fürJapanstudien) 2001:13. 221

**Chapter 10**

**The Implications of**

Jacqueline McIntosh

**1. Introduction**

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/55273

to at least its original state, if not better.

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

**Post Disaster Recovery for Affordable Housing**

Disasters, both natural and man-made and involving the massive destruction of habitats, have been with us since the beginning of time. While responses have varied by countries, depending on their population, wealth and culture; and while the magnitude of disaster has also varied, as does the capacity for a country to respond, each country strives to restore its infrastructure

At the same time, affordable housing is also a persistent and world-wide imperative. Common strategies to respond to this need include subsidy, reducing quality, simplifica‐ tion and self-help (Katz et al, 2003; Johnson, 2006; Thorns, 2006; FAS 2008a; Gurran et al, 2008). Subsidy, involving agency payment for part or all of the costs of housing (and seeking to recovery) has been challenged by issues relating to internal objectives and external teaming initiatives (Bratt, 2002, FEMA 2008a). Quality has been compromised by issues relating to longevity, generosity, politics and lack of agreement about the mini‐ mum acceptable level of service to be provided (Anderson et al, 2003; FEMA 2008b, Lindberg et al, 2010). Simplification refers to the stripping of any superfluous details such as decoration, outdoor spaces and methods of construction and delivery. Self-help refers to the potential for self-building and in some cases self-financing (Harris, 1999; Brede‐ noord and van Lindert, 2010; HUD, 2007, Leishman, 2012). These policies have been implemented to differing degrees of success, but affordability crisis persists (RAND, 2008b). The prospect of more frequent and more extreme exceptional weather events, engendered by climate change, further exacerbates the housing affordability crisis. Nowhere is the intersection of these two issues—post disaster recovery and affordable housing—more intense than in the recovery programmes following a disaster such as an extreme weather event. In the face of growing public awareness and concern for global warming and the potential for climate

> © 2013 McIntosh; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,

© 2013 McIntosh, licensee InTech. This is a paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


## **The Implications of Post Disaster Recovery for Affordable Housing**

Jacqueline McIntosh

[41] Hein C. Toshikeikaku and Machizukuri in Japanese Urban Planning - the Recon‐ struction of Inner City Neighborhoods in Kobe. Jahrbuch des DIJ (DeutschesInstitut‐

204 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

[43] Flüchter W. Tokyo before the Next Earthquake: Agglomeration-Related Risks, Town Planning and Disaster Prevention.The Town Planning Review. Liverpool University

[44] Haas J., Kates R. Bowden J. (eds.)) Reconstruction Following Disaster. Cambridge

[45] Mileti D. Disasters by Design: A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United

[47] Yasui, E. Community Vulnerability and Capacity in Post-Disaster Recovery: the cases of Mano and Mikura Neighbourhoods in the wake of the 1995 Kobe Earthquake. Un‐

[48] Futiagaya, Y. (ed) Global Architecture: Tadao Ando 1994-2000 Tokyo: ADA Edita.

[49] Comfort L. Shared Risks: Complex Systems in Seismic Response. Oxford: Pergamon/

2000 and Jodidio, P. Ando: Complete Works. Hong Kong: Taschen. 2007.

States. Washington, DC: Joseph Henry Press.1999.

published PhD thesis. UBC. (2007). p242.

fürJapanstudien) 2001:13. 221

[42] Sorenson, A. op. cit.

Press. 2001:74 (2)235

MA : MIT Press;1977.

Elsevier Science. 1999.

[46] Tobriner S. op.cit.

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/55273

#### **1. Introduction**

Disasters, both natural and man-made and involving the massive destruction of habitats, have been with us since the beginning of time. While responses have varied by countries, depending on their population, wealth and culture; and while the magnitude of disaster has also varied, as does the capacity for a country to respond, each country strives to restore its infrastructure to at least its original state, if not better.

At the same time, affordable housing is also a persistent and world-wide imperative. Common strategies to respond to this need include subsidy, reducing quality, simplifica‐ tion and self-help (Katz et al, 2003; Johnson, 2006; Thorns, 2006; FAS 2008a; Gurran et al, 2008). Subsidy, involving agency payment for part or all of the costs of housing (and seeking to recovery) has been challenged by issues relating to internal objectives and external teaming initiatives (Bratt, 2002, FEMA 2008a). Quality has been compromised by issues relating to longevity, generosity, politics and lack of agreement about the mini‐ mum acceptable level of service to be provided (Anderson et al, 2003; FEMA 2008b, Lindberg et al, 2010). Simplification refers to the stripping of any superfluous details such as decoration, outdoor spaces and methods of construction and delivery. Self-help refers to the potential for self-building and in some cases self-financing (Harris, 1999; Brede‐ noord and van Lindert, 2010; HUD, 2007, Leishman, 2012). These policies have been implemented to differing degrees of success, but affordability crisis persists (RAND, 2008b).

The prospect of more frequent and more extreme exceptional weather events, engendered by climate change, further exacerbates the housing affordability crisis. Nowhere is the intersection of these two issues—post disaster recovery and affordable housing—more intense than in the recovery programmes following a disaster such as an extreme weather event. In the face of growing public awareness and concern for global warming and the potential for climate

© 2013 McIntosh; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2013 McIntosh, licensee InTech. This is a paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

change, the challenges of post-disaster recovery and affordable housing have been intensified with a resurgence of interest in sustainability and green building (Hamin, 2008; Levine et al, 2007; Hayles, 2010). The new imperative for sustainable construction demands that *any* new housing be able to weather and mitigate damage from future extreme weather events. No longer is it sufficient to simply temporarily house victims of a disaster. Post-disaster recovery goals demand that this be accomplished using community processes and that new structures are better and stronger, will mitigate damage from future events and will be culturally appropriate (Berke et al, 1993; Comerio, 1998; Kennedy et al, 2008). All this must be achieved within the constraint of affordability.

Following the hurricane, there was a significant increase in demand for affordable rental housing. While the US had typically relied on market forces to supply the bulk of its rental housing requirements, in this instance, the market did not respond as expected (Popkin, et al, 2006). Instead of rushing to rebuild rental housing, many private investors delayed or indefinitely deferred the decision to rebuild. This is evident in the rates of recovery by housing type (Katz, 2008). The rate of recovery moved more rapidly for single-family dwellings than for multifamily units and it was higher for moderately damaged buildings than for severely damaged units. It was also especially true for most severely damaged properties of uninsured and underinsured homeowners and landlords (for example those with multi-unit rental properties). Landlords with severely damaged buildings faced with "overheated" construc‐ tion costs and financing shortfalls had the ability to "take their investment money elsewhere," delaying rebuilding until the market cooled off. This was deemed to have been particularly true for the 'mom and pop' landlords who depend heavily on the cash flow from rents (Gulf

In addition to those homeowners seeking to restore their housing, some homeowners were not happy with the directions that their former neighbourhoods were taking in the rebuilding process, so they took the cash from their insurance to rebuild elsewhere, often out of state (Johnson, 2006). As a result, the number of private landlords dropped significantly following the hurricane, the proportion of renters relative to owners increased, the demand for affordable housing increased (also inflated by the influx of low-paid construction workers—many of whom were migrants) and the 'market' showed signs of not recovering fast enough to meet demand, putting added pressure on the state to provide affordable housing—fast (Gulf

Shortly after Hurricane Katrina struck, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA, 2008b) provided temporary emergency housing, drawing from their existing inventory of temporary trailers and the purchase of 102,000 additional travel trailers. The FEMA trailers

Designed for mobility and rapid deployment, the trailers were provided on wheels for ease of movement into trailer parks or onto individual lots. To meet the massive demand, the

), larger travel trailers (37 m2

The Implications of Post Disaster Recovery for Affordable Housing

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/55273

207

), and even

Renewal, 2007 McCarthy, K and Hanson M, 2008).

were a mix of new and used small trailers (18.5 m2

**2.1. Federal emergency management response to Hurricane Katrina**

Renewal 2007, Quarantelli, E. 1995).

larger mobile homes (see Figure 1).

**Figure 1.** FEMA travel trailer types

This chapter explores the problem of providing affordable and sustainable housing in the context of a post-disaster recovery both in the short term and in the longer term. It focuses specifically on the sustainable construction strategies adopted by various US government agencies in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. It begins with a description of the response to the hurricane and the unexpected new housing issues that it created. The chapter then explores the sometimes conflicting mandates of federal and state housing providers as well as the providers of affordable housing within the context of a 'sustainability aware' design com‐ munity. Finally, it identifies some of the broader implications that can be drawn from this case study.

#### **2. Hurricane Katrina and the housing market**

Hurricane Katrina devastated the US Gulf Coast in August 2005, inflicting major damage on housing, commercial property and infrastructure (Elliott and Pais, 2006; Nigg et al, 2006; Popkin, et al, 2006; FAS, 2008b). While the US has had longstanding experience coping with hurricanes, Hurricane Katrina was the first to impact the central urban area of a major city. Prior to Katrina, the housing stock in the New Orleans region consisted of a mix of singlefamily dwellings, multi-dwelling units and mobile homes (Nigg et al, 2006). The majority of these were owner-occupied. Most rental housing was privately owned (as opposed to stateowned) and consisted of both single-family homes and multi-unit dwellings purposely built for rental.

During the hurricane, as could be expected, poorly constructed housing sustained greater damage then did housing of better construction (Elliott and Pais, 2006). It was common to find that lower-income families inhabited the more poorly constructed housing (Peacock et al, 2007). Rental housing was generally more poorly constructed than owner-occupied housing. Despite the widespread extent of the damages to housing stock throughout the region, there were significant differences in the extent and intensity of damage among submarkets (Johnson, 2006). The most severely affected subset was the multifamily rental submarket—almost 80 percent of such units were damaged, and one-third of all multifamily rental units suffered severe or moderate damage. About one-half of the single-family residences (owned and rented) suffered damage, and almost 20 percent of all single-family units were severely or moderately damaged (RAND, 2008a).

Following the hurricane, there was a significant increase in demand for affordable rental housing. While the US had typically relied on market forces to supply the bulk of its rental housing requirements, in this instance, the market did not respond as expected (Popkin, et al, 2006). Instead of rushing to rebuild rental housing, many private investors delayed or indefinitely deferred the decision to rebuild. This is evident in the rates of recovery by housing type (Katz, 2008). The rate of recovery moved more rapidly for single-family dwellings than for multifamily units and it was higher for moderately damaged buildings than for severely damaged units. It was also especially true for most severely damaged properties of uninsured and underinsured homeowners and landlords (for example those with multi-unit rental properties). Landlords with severely damaged buildings faced with "overheated" construc‐ tion costs and financing shortfalls had the ability to "take their investment money elsewhere," delaying rebuilding until the market cooled off. This was deemed to have been particularly true for the 'mom and pop' landlords who depend heavily on the cash flow from rents (Gulf Renewal, 2007 McCarthy, K and Hanson M, 2008).

In addition to those homeowners seeking to restore their housing, some homeowners were not happy with the directions that their former neighbourhoods were taking in the rebuilding process, so they took the cash from their insurance to rebuild elsewhere, often out of state (Johnson, 2006). As a result, the number of private landlords dropped significantly following the hurricane, the proportion of renters relative to owners increased, the demand for affordable housing increased (also inflated by the influx of low-paid construction workers—many of whom were migrants) and the 'market' showed signs of not recovering fast enough to meet demand, putting added pressure on the state to provide affordable housing—fast (Gulf Renewal 2007, Quarantelli, E. 1995).

#### **2.1. Federal emergency management response to Hurricane Katrina**

Shortly after Hurricane Katrina struck, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA, 2008b) provided temporary emergency housing, drawing from their existing inventory of temporary trailers and the purchase of 102,000 additional travel trailers. The FEMA trailers were a mix of new and used small trailers (18.5 m2 ), larger travel trailers (37 m2 ), and even larger mobile homes (see Figure 1).

**Figure 1.** FEMA travel trailer types

change, the challenges of post-disaster recovery and affordable housing have been intensified with a resurgence of interest in sustainability and green building (Hamin, 2008; Levine et al, 2007; Hayles, 2010). The new imperative for sustainable construction demands that *any* new housing be able to weather and mitigate damage from future extreme weather events. No longer is it sufficient to simply temporarily house victims of a disaster. Post-disaster recovery goals demand that this be accomplished using community processes and that new structures are better and stronger, will mitigate damage from future events and will be culturally appropriate (Berke et al, 1993; Comerio, 1998; Kennedy et al, 2008). All this must be achieved

206 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

This chapter explores the problem of providing affordable and sustainable housing in the context of a post-disaster recovery both in the short term and in the longer term. It focuses specifically on the sustainable construction strategies adopted by various US government agencies in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. It begins with a description of the response to the hurricane and the unexpected new housing issues that it created. The chapter then explores the sometimes conflicting mandates of federal and state housing providers as well as the providers of affordable housing within the context of a 'sustainability aware' design com‐ munity. Finally, it identifies some of the broader implications that can be drawn from this case

Hurricane Katrina devastated the US Gulf Coast in August 2005, inflicting major damage on housing, commercial property and infrastructure (Elliott and Pais, 2006; Nigg et al, 2006; Popkin, et al, 2006; FAS, 2008b). While the US has had longstanding experience coping with hurricanes, Hurricane Katrina was the first to impact the central urban area of a major city. Prior to Katrina, the housing stock in the New Orleans region consisted of a mix of singlefamily dwellings, multi-dwelling units and mobile homes (Nigg et al, 2006). The majority of these were owner-occupied. Most rental housing was privately owned (as opposed to stateowned) and consisted of both single-family homes and multi-unit dwellings purposely built

During the hurricane, as could be expected, poorly constructed housing sustained greater damage then did housing of better construction (Elliott and Pais, 2006). It was common to find that lower-income families inhabited the more poorly constructed housing (Peacock et al, 2007). Rental housing was generally more poorly constructed than owner-occupied housing. Despite the widespread extent of the damages to housing stock throughout the region, there were significant differences in the extent and intensity of damage among submarkets (Johnson, 2006). The most severely affected subset was the multifamily rental submarket—almost 80 percent of such units were damaged, and one-third of all multifamily rental units suffered severe or moderate damage. About one-half of the single-family residences (owned and rented) suffered damage, and almost 20 percent of all single-family units were severely or

within the constraint of affordability.

**2. Hurricane Katrina and the housing market**

study.

for rental.

moderately damaged (RAND, 2008a).

Designed for mobility and rapid deployment, the trailers were provided on wheels for ease of movement into trailer parks or onto individual lots. To meet the massive demand, the new trailers were manufactured using the least expensive and most readily available materials and methods, then constructed in haste with little time spent drying out in the factory. This was to backfire later when trailers were found to not only be unsustainable due to their relative expense and short life expectancy, but that they were unhealthy for the occupants (Popkin, et al, 2006).

Overall, the FEMA travel trailers were widely criticized for providing less than desirable temporary housing (Majority Staff Report, 2008). The Internet is filled with personal accounts of unhappy occupants, reports of unhealthy living conditions and overall dissatisfaction. Although the travel trailers were never intended to be used long term (i.e. their use was limited to 18 months), the extended use of travel trailers following disasters of this nature was common in the southern US, with people continuing to live in them for many years. As of mid-August 2007—two years after the hurricane, 60,000 people were still living in 'temporary' shelter

The Implications of Post Disaster Recovery for Affordable Housing

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/55273

209

While the federal government focussed its efforts on the provision of emergency shelter, the state governments response tended to look further into the future in search of a more holistic and sustainable housing approach that took in the entire urban community (Hassett and Handley, 2006). It became readily apparent to Governor of Mississippi, Hayley Barbour, and his advisors that the so-called temporary shelters had, by necessity, become more permanent fixtures. With their interest in affordable housing models, state officials wanted to go beyond the Band-Aid solutions previously employed for disaster recovery and introduce a more sustainable solution (Peacock et al, 2007). This prompted the governor to employ New Urbanist planner Andres Duany to explore other possibilities. Duany has argued that that shelter is not enough, that a sustainable model had to be fast, flexible and able to transition from temporary shelter to temporary housing and on to permanent housing (Evans-Cowley, 2009). Only through this capacity to transition would costs stay reasonable. Moreover, Peacock et al

FEMA trailers in Louisiana and Mississippi (Blueprint for Gulf Renewal)

**2.2. State response to loss of housing**

**Figure 3.** BASIPS park in LaPlace, St John Parish, LA.

In addition to the trailers, FEMA had also ordered 25,000 Building America Structural Insulated Panel (BASIP) homes (see Figures 2 and 3). The program for the house design was developed in the 1970s and, like the travel trailers they were designed for temporary shelter, for periods that do not exceed 18 months (Thomas-Rees, 2006). These houses differ from travel trailers both in terms of size and construction. Seeking a more sustainable housing option, the proposed BASIP house design uses prefabricated insulated panels for walls and the roof, resulting in greater energy efficiency and improved durability. Each unit has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and have been designed for expansion through the joining of a second unit to create a 'double wide.' Other proposed features included special shutters to provide future hurricane protection and solar shading, a retractable awning for solar shading and an addi‐ tional square area.

#### **Figure 2.** BASIP Homes

Some of the other sustainable features include the potential for integration of photovoltaics to meet power needs in situations where utilities have not been restored or during times when service is interrupted (Thomas-Rees, 2006). In terms of external appearance however, BASIP's homes look very much like a larger version of the FEMA trailer only with a pitched roof.

Overall, the FEMA travel trailers were widely criticized for providing less than desirable temporary housing (Majority Staff Report, 2008). The Internet is filled with personal accounts of unhappy occupants, reports of unhealthy living conditions and overall dissatisfaction. Although the travel trailers were never intended to be used long term (i.e. their use was limited to 18 months), the extended use of travel trailers following disasters of this nature was common in the southern US, with people continuing to live in them for many years. As of mid-August 2007—two years after the hurricane, 60,000 people were still living in 'temporary' shelter FEMA trailers in Louisiana and Mississippi (Blueprint for Gulf Renewal)

#### **2.2. State response to loss of housing**

new trailers were manufactured using the least expensive and most readily available materials and methods, then constructed in haste with little time spent drying out in the factory. This was to backfire later when trailers were found to not only be unsustainable due to their relative expense and short life expectancy, but that they were unhealthy for

208 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

In addition to the trailers, FEMA had also ordered 25,000 Building America Structural Insulated Panel (BASIP) homes (see Figures 2 and 3). The program for the house design was developed in the 1970s and, like the travel trailers they were designed for temporary shelter, for periods that do not exceed 18 months (Thomas-Rees, 2006). These houses differ from travel trailers both in terms of size and construction. Seeking a more sustainable housing option, the proposed BASIP house design uses prefabricated insulated panels for walls and the roof, resulting in greater energy efficiency and improved durability. Each unit has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and have been designed for expansion through the joining of a second unit to create a 'double wide.' Other proposed features included special shutters to provide future hurricane protection and solar shading, a retractable awning for solar shading and an addi‐

Some of the other sustainable features include the potential for integration of photovoltaics to meet power needs in situations where utilities have not been restored or during times when service is interrupted (Thomas-Rees, 2006). In terms of external appearance however, BASIP's homes look very much like a larger version of the FEMA trailer only with a pitched roof.

the occupants (Popkin, et al, 2006).

tional square area.

**Figure 2.** BASIP Homes

While the federal government focussed its efforts on the provision of emergency shelter, the state governments response tended to look further into the future in search of a more holistic and sustainable housing approach that took in the entire urban community (Hassett and Handley, 2006). It became readily apparent to Governor of Mississippi, Hayley Barbour, and his advisors that the so-called temporary shelters had, by necessity, become more permanent fixtures. With their interest in affordable housing models, state officials wanted to go beyond the Band-Aid solutions previously employed for disaster recovery and introduce a more sustainable solution (Peacock et al, 2007). This prompted the governor to employ New Urbanist planner Andres Duany to explore other possibilities. Duany has argued that that shelter is not enough, that a sustainable model had to be fast, flexible and able to transition from temporary shelter to temporary housing and on to permanent housing (Evans-Cowley, 2009). Only through this capacity to transition would costs stay reasonable. Moreover, Peacock et al

**Figure 3.** BASIPS park in LaPlace, St John Parish, LA.

(2007) point out that the capacity of an individual family household to recover is inextricably tied to housing recovery.

cottage design to an all encompassing community design, avoiding the less than desirable

Other designers continued to build on Duany and Plater-Zyberk's ideas, expanding the original Katrina cottage idea to 20 different cottage models, including the Kernel House, which

These projects attempted to create sustainable post-disaster recovery housing, but one of the more sustainable and interesting is the Green Mobile Project (see Figure 6), which 'represents a blend of key emergency housing needs with energy efficient and affordable housing that can serve as a temporary or permanent dwelling--emphasizing innovative site design features, green building technologies, durability, expandability with an open interior design that can be adapted to varied family needs. The units, therefore, result in 'reduced energy consumption and affordable living' (United States Government Accountability Office Washington, DC

**Figure 6.** MSU architecture professor Michael Berk shows a model of GreenMobile.

module to a 120.7 m2

The Implications of Post Disaster Recovery for Affordable Housing

home with added wings

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/55273

211

temporary community plans formerly employed (Talen, 2008; Evans-Cowley, 2009).

was designed to grow from an initial 46.4 m2

**Figure 5.** Kernel cottages designed for expansion

2007, FEMA website).

(See Figure 5).

The houses envisaged by Duany and his partner and wife, Elizabeth Plater-Zyberk, were developed as temporary shelter which could be located in new green-field sites, or at the rear of existing properties, as in-fill properties on vacant pockets of land or could even provide additional dwelling spaces for guests or aging relatives. Initial affordability was achieved largely through their small size. Challenging a group of architects to find an alternative to the FEMA trailer, Duany found what he was looking for in a cottage designed by architect Marianne Cusato (see Figure 4). Her house became known as the 'Katrina cottage', named after the hurricane that prompted it's inception. Seeking an intermediate size somewhere between the 18.5 m2 and 27.8 m2 FEMA trailers, the first cottage was designed at 27.8 m2 . The cottages were kitset, using prefabricated panels specially designed for hurricane conditions and able to withstand high wind-load conditions and excessive moisture without incurring damage or destruction. In sum, to meet with new objectives, the cottages had to be sustainable, to be able to mitigate damage from future storms, to be appropriate to regional conditions, culture and climate and deliverable by all major delivery methods. This vision extended beyond simple

**Figure 4.** The original Katrina Cottage

cottage design to an all encompassing community design, avoiding the less than desirable temporary community plans formerly employed (Talen, 2008; Evans-Cowley, 2009).

Other designers continued to build on Duany and Plater-Zyberk's ideas, expanding the original Katrina cottage idea to 20 different cottage models, including the Kernel House, which was designed to grow from an initial 46.4 m2 module to a 120.7 m2 home with added wings (See Figure 5).

**Figure 5.** Kernel cottages designed for expansion

(2007) point out that the capacity of an individual family household to recover is inextricably

210 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

The houses envisaged by Duany and his partner and wife, Elizabeth Plater-Zyberk, were developed as temporary shelter which could be located in new green-field sites, or at the rear of existing properties, as in-fill properties on vacant pockets of land or could even provide additional dwelling spaces for guests or aging relatives. Initial affordability was achieved largely through their small size. Challenging a group of architects to find an alternative to the FEMA trailer, Duany found what he was looking for in a cottage designed by architect Marianne Cusato (see Figure 4). Her house became known as the 'Katrina cottage', named after the hurricane that prompted it's inception. Seeking an intermediate size somewhere between

and 27.8 m2 FEMA trailers, the first cottage was designed at 27.8 m2

were kitset, using prefabricated panels specially designed for hurricane conditions and able to withstand high wind-load conditions and excessive moisture without incurring damage or destruction. In sum, to meet with new objectives, the cottages had to be sustainable, to be able to mitigate damage from future storms, to be appropriate to regional conditions, culture and climate and deliverable by all major delivery methods. This vision extended beyond simple

. The cottages

tied to housing recovery.

**Figure 4.** The original Katrina Cottage

the 18.5 m2

These projects attempted to create sustainable post-disaster recovery housing, but one of the more sustainable and interesting is the Green Mobile Project (see Figure 6), which 'represents a blend of key emergency housing needs with energy efficient and affordable housing that can serve as a temporary or permanent dwelling--emphasizing innovative site design features, green building technologies, durability, expandability with an open interior design that can be adapted to varied family needs. The units, therefore, result in 'reduced energy consumption and affordable living' (United States Government Accountability Office Washington, DC 2007, FEMA website).

**Figure 6.** MSU architecture professor Michael Berk shows a model of GreenMobile.

#### **2.3. Post-disaster recovery housing becomes affordable (and desirable)**

Meanwhile the prototype Katrina cottage had caught the imagination of designers throughout the southern US, eliciting a host of Katrina copies with varying degrees of sustainable con‐ struction. Currently there are dozens of listings on the Internet for Katrina cottages that available for rent (Lane, 2008, Benfield, 2010). They are being used for long-term housing and for uses including vacation homes, granny cottages and home offices (Benfield 2010, Stark, 2006). The trailers arrived on site ready to inhabit, flexible for use in a variety of situations and as temporary dwellings, they did not require building consent. The following quotes from the Internet illustrate the range of uses and locations that the cottages have been deployed, well beyond their intended post-disaster recovery housing based in the New Orleans region.

adaptable for disaster situations. It is also critical to develop the manufacturing technologies and delivery processes that can be ramped up in large numbers and in short time frames. These are best resolved well before any emergency arises. This is the only way to get beyond the

The Implications of Post Disaster Recovery for Affordable Housing

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213

The experience of the post-disaster recovery period in the US following Hurricane Katrina suggests that it is possible to build sustainably and affordably, but it is difficult (Johnson, 2007). The following lessons regarding sustainability and affordability can be gleaned from

**1.** There is no such thing as 'temporary' with respect to housing, post-disaster recovery or otherwise. Sustainable housing is more than a discrete 'product'. It must also be consid‐ ered as a cultural artefact that has particular meaning for the community within which it

**2.** Significant cost and waste results from non-cooperation between agencies. Conflicting organisational objectives must be aligned in order to achieve long-term sustainable

**3.** Even in the most liberal capitalist society, the government should endeavour to lead the way by providing well-researched advanced design solutions. The government needs to play an important role modelling function in facilitating a desirable outcome that will

The convergence of post-disaster recovery and sustainable housing research practices has fortuitously created important new directions and opportunities. While the solutions that were created in response to Hurricane Katrina might be vastly different from those appropriate for Third World countries or other cultural settings, the process for 'getting to sustainable, affordable housing' is more universal in its application. *Any* new housing must, within the confines of what is affordable, be able to weather and mitigate damage from future extreme weather events, be culturally appropriate, and strengthen community structures. This leaves us with only one major remaining challenge: Who is deserving of sustainable affordable housing? One intriguing possibility has been put forward by a Californian architect from one

'One of the problems that I see with it, and I probably shouldn't say this, is that it looks nice. I think the government has a very hard time giving things away to people or underwriting

The political reality that this architect alludes to is that a significant proportion of the wealthier sectors of society are resistant and vocal about granting the very poor considerably better housing stock to that prior to what they had (or perceived to be had) prior to the disaster. In a post-disaster recovery situation this political and socio-cultural hurdle is mitigated by a combination of public sympathy to widespread loss and the benchmark of the pre-existing housing. Overall, replacement housing should be of equal or only marginally better 'value' than that which existed before. In the cases of the extreme poor, the homeless, or those without

things that go beyond some sort of bureaucratically understood minimal gesture'.

property, establishing these benchmarks seem to pose an insurmountable problem.

constraints imposed by supply and demand economics.

is located.

solutions.

allow the market to follow.

of the oldest architectural firms based in that state:

the events that took place in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina:

"The Katrina cottage - with living quarters about the size of a McMansion bathroom - is now appealing to people well beyond the flood plain. Californians want to build one in their backyards to use for rental income to help with the mortgage payment. Modestly paid kayakers in Colorado see it as a way to finally afford a house. Elsewhere, people envision building one so a parent can live nearby." (M Cusato, Katrina cottage designer)

"We have lot sizes that are too small for a... single-family, detached household, so the idea is to bring in these extremely attractive dwellings to provide affordable housing," (City council‐ lor, Connecticut)

'Meanwhile, in the iconic new urbanist resort town of Seaside, Florida, Katrina Cottages are being employed for a small educational facility' (Kaid Benfield)

"A developer in Virginia wants to do some as affordable houses. People see it and realize it's a dignified way to live." (M Cusato)

Driven by the desires of the public, the US had found a desirable housing model suited not only to post-disaster recovery, but to the wider development of sustainable, communityoriented, affordable housing.

#### **3. Conclusions and discussion**

The Hurricane Katrina experience has graphically shown the critical importance of planning and designing post-disaster recovery housing well before the disaster strikes. This advanced planning and design needs to be conducted at both the level of the individual dwelling as well as the community in which that dwelling will be located. It is also critical that these advanced designs be tested particularly when trialling new technologies and processes (Miller, 2006). It is also vital that leadership for these design initiatives be initiated by both the federal and the state government (Bathurst, et al 2011). Once these are initiated, it is imperative that commun‐ ities and local businesses become fully engaged in the evolutionary design processes *prior* to the disaster (Popkin, 2006; Cowley-Evans, 2009; Talen, 2008).

In planning and designing post disaster recovery housing, it is important to work backwards, from a sustainable housing model that is suited to the needs of the current rental market, but adaptable for disaster situations. It is also critical to develop the manufacturing technologies and delivery processes that can be ramped up in large numbers and in short time frames. These are best resolved well before any emergency arises. This is the only way to get beyond the constraints imposed by supply and demand economics.

**2.3. Post-disaster recovery housing becomes affordable (and desirable)**

212 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

so a parent can live nearby." (M Cusato, Katrina cottage designer)

being employed for a small educational facility' (Kaid Benfield)

the disaster (Popkin, 2006; Cowley-Evans, 2009; Talen, 2008).

lor, Connecticut)

a dignified way to live." (M Cusato)

**3. Conclusions and discussion**

oriented, affordable housing.

Meanwhile the prototype Katrina cottage had caught the imagination of designers throughout the southern US, eliciting a host of Katrina copies with varying degrees of sustainable con‐ struction. Currently there are dozens of listings on the Internet for Katrina cottages that available for rent (Lane, 2008, Benfield, 2010). They are being used for long-term housing and for uses including vacation homes, granny cottages and home offices (Benfield 2010, Stark, 2006). The trailers arrived on site ready to inhabit, flexible for use in a variety of situations and as temporary dwellings, they did not require building consent. The following quotes from the Internet illustrate the range of uses and locations that the cottages have been deployed, well beyond their intended post-disaster recovery housing based in the New Orleans region.

"The Katrina cottage - with living quarters about the size of a McMansion bathroom - is now appealing to people well beyond the flood plain. Californians want to build one in their backyards to use for rental income to help with the mortgage payment. Modestly paid kayakers in Colorado see it as a way to finally afford a house. Elsewhere, people envision building one

"We have lot sizes that are too small for a... single-family, detached household, so the idea is to bring in these extremely attractive dwellings to provide affordable housing," (City council‐

'Meanwhile, in the iconic new urbanist resort town of Seaside, Florida, Katrina Cottages are

"A developer in Virginia wants to do some as affordable houses. People see it and realize it's

Driven by the desires of the public, the US had found a desirable housing model suited not only to post-disaster recovery, but to the wider development of sustainable, community-

The Hurricane Katrina experience has graphically shown the critical importance of planning and designing post-disaster recovery housing well before the disaster strikes. This advanced planning and design needs to be conducted at both the level of the individual dwelling as well as the community in which that dwelling will be located. It is also critical that these advanced designs be tested particularly when trialling new technologies and processes (Miller, 2006). It is also vital that leadership for these design initiatives be initiated by both the federal and the state government (Bathurst, et al 2011). Once these are initiated, it is imperative that commun‐ ities and local businesses become fully engaged in the evolutionary design processes *prior* to

In planning and designing post disaster recovery housing, it is important to work backwards, from a sustainable housing model that is suited to the needs of the current rental market, but The experience of the post-disaster recovery period in the US following Hurricane Katrina suggests that it is possible to build sustainably and affordably, but it is difficult (Johnson, 2007). The following lessons regarding sustainability and affordability can be gleaned from the events that took place in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina:


The convergence of post-disaster recovery and sustainable housing research practices has fortuitously created important new directions and opportunities. While the solutions that were created in response to Hurricane Katrina might be vastly different from those appropriate for Third World countries or other cultural settings, the process for 'getting to sustainable, affordable housing' is more universal in its application. *Any* new housing must, within the confines of what is affordable, be able to weather and mitigate damage from future extreme weather events, be culturally appropriate, and strengthen community structures. This leaves us with only one major remaining challenge: Who is deserving of sustainable affordable housing? One intriguing possibility has been put forward by a Californian architect from one of the oldest architectural firms based in that state:

'One of the problems that I see with it, and I probably shouldn't say this, is that it looks nice. I think the government has a very hard time giving things away to people or underwriting things that go beyond some sort of bureaucratically understood minimal gesture'.

The political reality that this architect alludes to is that a significant proportion of the wealthier sectors of society are resistant and vocal about granting the very poor considerably better housing stock to that prior to what they had (or perceived to be had) prior to the disaster. In a post-disaster recovery situation this political and socio-cultural hurdle is mitigated by a combination of public sympathy to widespread loss and the benchmark of the pre-existing housing. Overall, replacement housing should be of equal or only marginally better 'value' than that which existed before. In the cases of the extreme poor, the homeless, or those without property, establishing these benchmarks seem to pose an insurmountable problem.

#### **Author details**

Jacqueline McIntosh

School of Architecture and Design, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zea‐ land

[12] Federation of American Scientists (FAS) (2008b), A Response to Katrina: The making of the largest, most efficient modular building order in US history http://

The Implications of Post Disaster Recovery for Affordable Housing

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215

[14] FEMA and CDC Joint Press Release (2008b), FEMA 'To Expedite Relocation Of Resi‐ dents From Temporary Housing Units' http://www.cdc.gov/media/pressrel/2008/

[15] FEMA technical notes: Alternative Housing Pilot Program (AHPP) and Joint Hous‐ ing Solutions Group (JHSG) (nd) posted at http://www.huduser.org/periodicals/city‐ scape/technotes/AHPP.pdf and http://www.huduser.org/periodicals/cityscape/

[16] Gurran, N, Milligan, V, Baker, D, Beth Bugg L. and Christensen, S (2008) 'New direc‐ tions in planning for affordable housing: Australian and international evidence and implications' Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Sydney Research

[17] Hamin E.M., & Gurran, N. (2008) 'Urban form and climate change: Balancing adapta‐ tion and mitigation in the U.S. and Australia', *Habitat International* , doi:10.1016/

[18] Harris, R (1999) 'Slipping through the Cracks: The Origins of Aided Self-help Hous‐

[19] Hassett, W. Handley, M (2006) 'Hurricane Katrina Mississippi's Response' Public

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[21] Lindberg, R. Shenassa, E, Acevedo-Garcia, D. Popkin, S, Villaveces, A., Morley R (2010) 'Housing Interventions at the Neighborhood Level and Health: A Review of the Evidence', *Journal of Public Health Management Practice*, 16(5) E-Supp, S44–S52 [22] Johnson, C (2007) 'Strategic planning for post-disaster temporary housing' *Disasters,*

[23] Johnson, M. (2006) 'Decision Models for Affordable Housing and Sustainable Com‐ munity Development' *Journal of the American Planning Association*: The Future(s) of

[24] Katz, C (2008) 'Bad elements: Katrina and the scoured landscape of social reproduc‐

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Housing

#### **References**


[12] Federation of American Scientists (FAS) (2008b), A Response to Katrina: The making of the largest, most efficient modular building order in US history http:// www.fas.org/programs/energy/btech/about/MEMA%20AHPP%20Article.pdf

**Author details**

Jacqueline McIntosh

land

**References**

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13-26

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Berkeley: University of California Press

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214 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

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*Crisis Management* Volume 16 Number 1 March

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2006


### *Edited by John Tiefenbacher*

Approaches to Disaster Management regards critical disaster management issues. Ten original research reports by international scholars centered on disaster management are organized into three general areas of hazards and disaster management. The first section includes discussions of perspectives on vulnerability and on evolving approaches to mitigation. The second section highlights approaches to improve data use and information management in several distinct applications intended to promote prediction and communication of hazard. The third section regards the management of crises and post-event recovery in the private sector, in the design of urban space and among the victims of disaster. This volume contributes both conceptual and practical commentary to the disaster management literature.

Approaches to Disaster Management -

Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters

Approaches to

Disaster Management

Examining the Implications of Hazards,

Emergencies and Disasters

*Edited by John Tiefenbacher*