**7. Conclusion**

44 Biodiversity Conservation and Utilization in a Diverse World

maintenance of matrix permeability [154,93].

issue nowadays and for the future.

knowledge.

reduced to less than 10% of its original area. Due to its flight ability, perhaps bat species can cross large deforested area easily, but we can not say the same about the species that they depend on, such as plant species, insects, and small vertebrates. Species will have to disperse large distance to reach areas in which climate is the same as today. This suggests that future landscape connectivity will play a major role in the effectiveness of the species in reaching new areas. In this context, agroforestry systems will have a key importance in the

Climate change will affect not only species and natural ecosystems but also the agriculture. The Brazilian Center for Agriculture Research - EMBRAPA has already projected momentous changes for the regions where cultures such as soybean, sugarcane, cotton, coffee, cassava and corn are currently implemented. According to EMBRAPA and UNICAMP [155] all cultures cited above, except sugarcane and cassava, will have their areas decreasing due to climate change and global warming. Projections based on IPCC A2 scenario for 2050 verify that appropriate areas for soybean plantation will be mainly on the center and Southeastern regions of Brazil. The Southeastern region of Brazil is quite the projected area that will be sufficient to, for instance, birds and bat species of the Brazilian Cerrado. Thus, spatial competition for food production and species protection is a serious

Regarding human aspects, the exponential growth of human population, and the increased *per capita* consumption reflected in the development of a highly expansive and intensive agriculture. It has been estimated that the human population will increase by 50% until 2050, with a higher expected proportion of individual meat consumption in the daily diet (feeding at higher levels of the trophic pyramid) [26]. Sustaining food production in the same magnitude of human growth is a challenge for all areas of human

Already 1.2 billion people live in areas in which water is physically scarce, and this number should double by 2030 [6]. Projections of the proportion of total global food supply obtained from rain fed areas (non-irrigated) should decline from 65% currently to 48% in 2030 [156]. The total irrigated area is expected to grow from 254 million ha in 1995 to between to 280 and 350 million ha in 2025. Fertilizer use is expected to increase 188 million tons by 2030 [157], and the world's meat consumption is expected to grow by 70% in the 2000-2030 period, and 120% in the 2000-2050 period [6]. Concerning food production, future predictions are also alarming. Global cereal production is predicted to decline by more than 5%, but this value may reach more than 10%. The risk of hunger may rise up to almost 60% in the developing world [158]. In some countries, such as India, production of crops may decrease by 70% [159]. When food security, availability, stability, utilization, and access are considered, between 5 to 170 million additional people will be at risk of hunger by 2080 [160]. However, childhood malnutrition is projected to decline from 149 million children in 2000 to 130 million children by 2025, and 99 million children by 2050 [6]. In the Amazon, soybean yields will suffer a reduction of 44% by 2050 [161]. It is estimated that the average rate of atmospheric N deposition in 34 world biodiversity hotspots by 2050 will be twice the Overall, this chapter presents an overview on the agricultural systems and the effect of different types of management on biodiversity and ecosystems. We analyse data for shadecocoa, shade-coffee and agroforestry home gardens in Brazilian atlantic forest region. In most situations, win-win relationship between conservation and production is possible, as farms with intermediate levels of yield are associated with high biodiversity. Also, the idea that there is a need to intensify agricultural systems to increase food production to feed the hungry does not apply to many tropical agriculture landscapes. Instead, changing food habits and promoting a more even food distribution using small scale eco-agriculture will guarantee a more resilient, social, and biodiversity friendly practices.

The future of farming and biodiversity depends on the type of agricultural management that will be applied in landscapes. If the agricultural intensification continues to expand, it is very likely that yields will increase, but with high variance and low resilience to environmental uncertainties, which are predicted to increase due to climatic changes and loss of ecosystem services. On the other hand, stakeholders may opt for more biodiversity friendly agricultural practices, which sometimes (but not always) are less productive than intensive systems, but have more productive stability and are more resilient. Additionally, these non-intensive systems can mitigate climate change by being sinks of green house gases.

Food security in the tropics depends on the recognition of the importance of the poor small holder agricultural systems, because they are the majority of the hungry people in the world. The '*business as usual'* strategy should increase economic inequality, increasing poverty and starvation, as well as causing deep ecological impacts. On the other hand, small-holder mixed-farming systems increase food security during times of ecological and economical instability. As we see it, heterogeneous agroforestry is the best option for biological conservation and social justice. It is expected that in the near future, millions of hectares of land will be occupied by agroforestry systems.
