**7. Conclusion**

580 Risk Management – Current Issues and Challenges

A system was developed to ingest output data from the Predictive Atmospheric-Ocean Model for Australia (POAMA) GCM [17]. A user-facing component was developed, based on a rich web-based interface that provides a one-stop shop for access to dynamical modelbased outlooks. The purpose of the tool is to provide a specialised point of access to CGCM based seasonal outlooks for the national meteorological services of Pacific Island countries.

This project was supported by the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP), a component of the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative - an Australian Government Initiative of \$328 million over five years, 2008-2013 to assist with high priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific region. As part of this program, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology lead a project to strengthen climate prediction capacities in the national meteorological and hydrological services of Pacific Island countries, including countries both north and south of the equator: Papua New Guinea, Tuvalu, Kiribati, Fiji, Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, Nauru, Cook Islands, Samoa, Tonga, Niue, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and East Timor. A key element of this work was the development of a web-based application providing access to dynamical model-based seasonal outlooks. As previously described, one means to reduce vulnerability to climate change is by improve preparedness to anomalous climatic events.

Graphical displays of seasonal forecasts of broad-scale, point and climate driver forecasts are generated with an example shown in Figure 9. The web application displays the contextual information provided as meta-data by the data service layer, consumes the outputs of web services that produce figures and tables. It displays model-based outlooks as overlays on dynamical maps using geospatial web services. Access is given not just to application graphics but also to outlook data. User-friendly options for data extraction from

An agile, iterative approach to the development of the web portal user interface (UI) included testing of early development versions of the portal with users at a project workshop, and in a series of country visits. These sessions validated the overall UI design

While much work went into the web front end, an equal amount of work was spent ensuring that the forecast generation layer is decoupled from this specific client. The access to the data provided by the data service layer allows for the future design of web clients that perform computational value adding using processing services, for example the ingestion

The integration of data into a dynamical mapping tool provides opportunities for data mash-up in which data from different sources is displayed in composite. The provision of geospatial information in such a way that data from multiple sources can be integrated opens the way for new and interesting applications. For example, one potential future application for seasonal forecasting might be the display of agricultural or fishery yield data

the web portal are provided to support users of the range of tools from Excel to R.

and subsequent combination and calibration of multiple selected models.

and provided valuable feedback for improvements.

overlaid with outlook reliability data.

From the physical basis to the complexities of applications to specific industries and decisions it is clear that seasonal prediction is a large-scale enterprise requiring coordinated work across a range of scientific and technological disciplines. Steady improvements in GCM resolution and physics, coupled with ever increasing understanding of the physical mechanisms of predictability, will ensure that seasonal predictions become an important component of adaptation to a changing and more variable climate.
