**5.5. The agrometeorological bulletin and improved decision-making processes in Paraguay**

Extreme weather events such as river floods, severe storms, droughts and below-freezing low temperatures are strongly linked to the onset of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Extreme events primarily affect river streamflow and cause numerous direct and indirect impacts on many key sectors of the Paraguayan economy: agriculture, ground and river transportation, potable water, construction, electricity, and recreation. Several studies have demonstrated that the potential impacts of these extreme events and their economic consequences are directly

related to the magnitude of ENSO episodes. Historically, Paraguay has experienced above normal mean temperatures and rainfall amounts, as well as unusually heavy rainfall events, during El Niño (or ENSO positive phase) episodes. The resulting floods have affected thousands of individuals, damaged numerous houses, public buildings and highways, and submerged entire crops, cattle grasslands and livestock farms. Recent examples include the catastrophic events that took place in the Paraguay and Paraná rivers, particularly during the El Niño 1982-83, 1991-92 and 1997-98 years. In the flat Paraguayan savannahs, rainfall extreme events have also caused a proliferation of *Aedes aegypti* mosquito breeding sites, increasing the incidence of classic dengue fever. This has been particularly true in the central, northeastern and eastern portions of this country, where climatic conditions are suitable for the successful development of *Aedes* mosquitoes. During La Niña events (or ENSO negative phase), the country usually experiences the opposite (i.e. rainfall deficits and well below normal ambient temperatures). The concomitant droughts cause a decline in dairy production, an increase in the rate of desertification of arable land, and a rise in the occurrence of grassland and forest fires. They also decrease hydropower generation, increase the pollution of rivers and pools of stagnant water, and limit fluvial transportation, thereby increasing import/export transport fees and diminishing the trade of goods. Moreover, long dry spells affect sunflower, maize, soy, cotton, and wheat production, thus reducing the revenue from these key agricultural activities. All these impacts, although mainly the ones affecting the agriculture sector, prompted the creation of a multidisciplinary group led by the Paraguayan Meteorological and Hydrological Service, and the Risk Management Unit at the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Farming. Collaboratively, the group issues an agro-meteorological bulletin, every month or at other intervals depending on specific needs, following the approach presented in the decision-making information system below. Activities include (see Figure 11) the Risk Management at the Latin American Observatory 551

assessment of available climate information, seasonal and ENSO forecasts, and medium- to long-term potential impacts on local agricultural production. Key information is then shared with local farmers and smallholders through technicians, advisors and on-the-ground

Up to date, the total number of end-users has reached over 2,000 local, regional and international groups including, among many others, the South American Common Market (MERCOSUR) and organizations in the United States of America, Canada and European countries. Numerous technicians, decision-makers, researchers, and students also use this

In central Chile, the *secano* zone involves a total surface of 4.362 km2, and a human population of 54.450 habitants (6.25% of the regional population). Considered as a rural area, the *modus vivendi* depends basically on agriculture. In the coastal secano of the O´Higgins Region, the total surface designated to crops and plantations is on the order of 22.800 hectares. The majority of this land possesses forage plants (27%), cereals –especially wheat- (21%), fruits (20%), vines and vineyards (25%), and in lesser proportion legumes (5%) and vegetables (2%) [26]. Presently, the cattle production is on the order of 536.170

The secano zone shows a dry season that varies between 6 and 8 months per year. Precipitations take place between April and September, with values around the 500-600 mm/year [27]. Reports on droughts in Chile go back to the times before the Spanish Colonies, with a strong impact in the agriculture production throughout the history of the country [28]. In a period of 400 years, 25% has been reported as dry and half of them as extremely dry [29]. The mean probability is therefore on the order of one dry year every 4 years. Quintana and Aceituno [30] have recently discussed trends of decrease in

Traditionally, the drought management in Chile has been contingent. Nonetheless, in the first decade of the XXI century, government actions in this regard have increased, orienting efforts towards an integrated management of extreme climate events. For example, this originated the National Plan for Civil Protection in 2002. The formal approval of the National Climate Change Strategy in 2006 and the respective Action Plan in 2008 have revealed the adaptation needs of the different productive sectors of Chile, but also the most vulnerable territories and populations. All this created a positive scenario for the establishment of improved policies for climate risk. Three important examples after the extreme drought of 2008 are the creation of the Comité Interministerial de Recursos Hídricos (Inter-ministry Water Resources Committee), the Comisión Nacional de Emergencias Agrícolas y Riesgos Agroclimáticos (National Committee for Agriculture Emergencies and Agro-Climate Risk) and the Sistema Nacional de Gestión del Riesgo Agroclimático (the National System for Agro-Climate Risk Management,

precipitation for central Chile of 10-30% for the second half of the XX century.

found at http://www.minagri.gov.cl/agroclimatico/comision\_nacional.php).

sectoral information in their individual routine activities.

animals, most of them being sheep.

**5.6. Climate risk of droughts in Chile and its effect on agriculture** 

experts.

**Figure 11.** The Paraguayan monthly agrometeorological bulletin (available online at: http://www.meteorologia.gov.py/) and the decision-making information system.

assessment of available climate information, seasonal and ENSO forecasts, and medium- to long-term potential impacts on local agricultural production. Key information is then shared with local farmers and smallholders through technicians, advisors and on-the-ground experts.

Up to date, the total number of end-users has reached over 2,000 local, regional and international groups including, among many others, the South American Common Market (MERCOSUR) and organizations in the United States of America, Canada and European countries. Numerous technicians, decision-makers, researchers, and students also use this sectoral information in their individual routine activities.
