**5. Conclusions and recommendations**

From global to local levels, public and private sector institutions are seeking the tools and knowledge for CRM (including capacity building and adaptation). People require climate information over wide ranges of time and space scales for planning and operational purposes. It is imperative, therefore, to ensure that they have the highest quality and widest possible range of products, information (including about uncertainties), and guidance on how the information can be used to provide optimal results and ensure appropriate decisions are made.

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Techniques, Case Studies, Good Practices and Guidelines for World Meteorological Organization Members 525

Weak or non-existent accountability system for encouraging and mandating use of

Limited involvement of the private sector to engage with stakeholders in the

Limited knowledge of climate and limited training in application and use of climate

Problems in identifying threats to carry out works on risk reduction because of limited

Limited synergy among national institutions to share climate and climate-relevant

The absence of an efficient communication system on extreme climate events to

Overly technical language in some climate information and products, making them

The lack of a culture of prevention of damage and proper maintenance, supported by

Even though climate scientific knowledge and probability modelling have advanced significantly over the last few past decades, especially with respect to the understanding of climate variability and change, the level of uncertainty inherent in probabilistic climate products has tended to make their communication by scientists for integration and understanding by users of the information more challenging. While the scientific community regards uncertainty as an inherent property of the climate system, which can be assessed through probability analysis, decision makers may consider uncertainty as a barrier to decision making, especially when other socio-economic and political variables also need to be considered. The result is a complex and confused integration situation among actors which requires careful communication to ensure the complex information is understood by all and appropriate decisions are made. To overcome this limitation, it is recommended that the climate scientific and stakeholder communities create an agenda sustained by the transfer of requirements, knowledge, tools and instruments allowing the formation of a community of practitioners with analytical skills and sharing basic agreements for action. To improve disaster and climate risk governance, it is proposed that decision-makers should also assume responsibilities concerning the understanding of risks within their sectors and regions, and consider the need to integrate DRR management and CRM using the wide range of currently available instruments and development

The role of the NMHS is decisive within the national efforts to cope with the opportunities and impacts of climate variability and change and to encourage effective CRM. The activities of NMHS regarding climate observations, data management, analysis maintaining a 'climate watch' and forecasting are strictly necessary to estimate the "near climate change", estimate indexes and provide local trends to be applied for risk management and development of adaptation plans. The nature of climate risks, including climate change implies accurate monitoring efforts under a rigorous methodology and standards that only NMHSs can

available scientific information for appropriate risk reduction measures.

development of risk management measures.

use of the necessary tools for assessment.

difficult to understand by lay people.

information at national level.

mechanisms.

information and products by users in many sectors;

disseminate information such as warnings and advisories.

finances, for the vulnerable physical and social infrastructure.

Effective CRM must be founded on scientifically sound risk assessment techniques that develop understanding, and where possible, quantification of the risks associated with natural hazards, socio-economic vulnerabilities and their impacts. Climate risk assessment, in turn, requires quality assured historical, real-time and future-projected data on climaterelated hazards and socio-economic vulnerabilities, with reliable regional detail. Changing patterns of climate hazards make those data needs even more imperative. Understanding the challenges posed by climate change to longer-term strategic planning and investments (e.g. infrastructure planning and retrofitting based on building codes as a 100 year flood may become a 30 year flood), would help providers frame future products and services, and users build resilience to future as well as current climate. To be effective, processes adopted for CRM must be perceived by individuals, communities and governments as providing real possibilities of improving their living standards through awareness, adaptation, prevention and increased resilience to climate impacts. If authorities set up sustainable, coherent and participative CRM plans that are 'owned' at local level, these will provide strong foundations for the development of successful adaptation strategies.

#### **5.1. Common constraints to Climate Risk Management**

A number of constraints limiting the use of climate information for decision-making by sectors have been discussed throughout this chapter. Some of the most common constraints to be addressed before implementation of sustainable CRM systems are:


Improving Climate Risk Management at Local Level –

 Weak or non-existent accountability system for encouraging and mandating use of available scientific information for appropriate risk reduction measures.

524 Risk Management – Current Issues and Challenges

decisions are made.

and authorities.

climate information requirements.

subnational governments.

**5. Conclusions and recommendations** 

From global to local levels, public and private sector institutions are seeking the tools and knowledge for CRM (including capacity building and adaptation). People require climate information over wide ranges of time and space scales for planning and operational purposes. It is imperative, therefore, to ensure that they have the highest quality and widest possible range of products, information (including about uncertainties), and guidance on how the information can be used to provide optimal results and ensure appropriate

Effective CRM must be founded on scientifically sound risk assessment techniques that develop understanding, and where possible, quantification of the risks associated with natural hazards, socio-economic vulnerabilities and their impacts. Climate risk assessment, in turn, requires quality assured historical, real-time and future-projected data on climaterelated hazards and socio-economic vulnerabilities, with reliable regional detail. Changing patterns of climate hazards make those data needs even more imperative. Understanding the challenges posed by climate change to longer-term strategic planning and investments (e.g. infrastructure planning and retrofitting based on building codes as a 100 year flood may become a 30 year flood), would help providers frame future products and services, and users build resilience to future as well as current climate. To be effective, processes adopted for CRM must be perceived by individuals, communities and governments as providing real possibilities of improving their living standards through awareness, adaptation, prevention and increased resilience to climate impacts. If authorities set up sustainable, coherent and participative CRM plans that are 'owned' at local level, these will provide strong

A number of constraints limiting the use of climate information for decision-making by sectors have been discussed throughout this chapter. Some of the most common constraints

 Limited national capabilities for climate data processing, analysis, modeling and the generation of information and forecast services including sectoral applications in

Lack of capacity to communicate information between NMHS and national agencies

Limited capability of governmental institutions and sectoral institutions to identify their

 Weak or non-existent planning of the investment budget for actions aimed at prevention of and preparedness for national disasters at the level of national and

foundations for the development of successful adaptation strategies.

to be addressed before implementation of sustainable CRM systems are:

Limited coordination between local institutions and agencies.

strategic sectors such as agriculture, health, water resources and others.

**5.1. Common constraints to Climate Risk Management** 


Even though climate scientific knowledge and probability modelling have advanced significantly over the last few past decades, especially with respect to the understanding of climate variability and change, the level of uncertainty inherent in probabilistic climate products has tended to make their communication by scientists for integration and understanding by users of the information more challenging. While the scientific community regards uncertainty as an inherent property of the climate system, which can be assessed through probability analysis, decision makers may consider uncertainty as a barrier to decision making, especially when other socio-economic and political variables also need to be considered. The result is a complex and confused integration situation among actors which requires careful communication to ensure the complex information is understood by all and appropriate decisions are made. To overcome this limitation, it is recommended that the climate scientific and stakeholder communities create an agenda sustained by the transfer of requirements, knowledge, tools and instruments allowing the formation of a community of practitioners with analytical skills and sharing basic agreements for action. To improve disaster and climate risk governance, it is proposed that decision-makers should also assume responsibilities concerning the understanding of risks within their sectors and regions, and consider the need to integrate DRR management and CRM using the wide range of currently available instruments and development mechanisms.

The role of the NMHS is decisive within the national efforts to cope with the opportunities and impacts of climate variability and change and to encourage effective CRM. The activities of NMHS regarding climate observations, data management, analysis maintaining a 'climate watch' and forecasting are strictly necessary to estimate the "near climate change", estimate indexes and provide local trends to be applied for risk management and development of adaptation plans. The nature of climate risks, including climate change implies accurate monitoring efforts under a rigorous methodology and standards that only NMHSs can provide in a sustainable way. The current efforts of NMHSs in weather and climate forecasts, the analysis of extremes and other prediction services are valuable for CRM and consequently a solid basis to work on climate change estimations at local level where global projections are not necessary applicable. To encourage communities to engage with such climate services and to enhance the relationship with the vulnerable local populations, a number of recommendations, that will underpin a "new business model" for conducting effective CRM at local levels, are proposed for the operations of the NMHSs of the WMO.

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Techniques, Case Studies, Good Practices and Guidelines for World Meteorological Organization Members 527

(the operational 'engine' of the GFCS which includes the NMHSs of WMO's 189 Member countries), and much improved interaction with users. A great deal of capacity development will be required to ensure the capability of climate providers to deliver quality information and the ability of the users to take up and apply the information. Indeed, in many places this is already underway, such as the provision of climate services in developing countries via the Regional Climate Outlook Forum supported by the WMO Climate Information and

The curent effort of the CCl Task Team on CRM, which has provided the motivation for this chapter, marks the beginning of a new collaboration on CRM. As the GFCS is implemented and improves over time, much will be learned, and the concept of CRM, *inter alia*, will be tested and evolve, particularly with the cooperation of the organizations affiliating themselves with the GFCS. We hope this chapter provides techniques, case studies, good

Prediction Services (CLIPS) project (Semazzi, 2011)73.

**Author details** 

G. Cockfield and S. Mushtaq

R. Martínez\*

D. Hemming\*

L. Malone\*

N. Bermudez

*QLD, Australia* 

A. Diongue

J. Hansen

K. Ingram

G. Jakeman

Leading Authors

 \*

A. Hildebrand

practices and guidelines that will be useful for this endeavour.

*International Research Center on El Niño (CIIFEN). Guayaquil, Ecuador* 

*World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva, Switzerland* 

*United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Quito, Ecuador* 

*Met Office Hadley Centre, UK Meteorologcial Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, UK* 

*Agence Nationale de l'Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie (ANACIM), Senegal* 

*International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), New York, USA* 

*Panamerican Health Organization (PAHO), Quito, Ecuador* 

*University of Florida, Gainsville, FL, USA* 

*Australian Centre for Sustainable Catchment, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba* 
