**3. Incidence and consequence**

An important distinction to keep in mind when considering the whole question of risk taking is the distinction between the likelihood of the occurrence of the risk under question versus the harmful consequence of the actual occurrence of risk under question. Clearly, when the likelihood of occurrence is high and the consequence of occurrence severe in terms of harm doing to risk takers, be it the public at large and/or the environment, this is an example of the kind of risk that should never be taken except under the most severely warranted circumstances. The example of self-defense, when confronted with a murderer who is armed and plans to murder you, comes to mind. Here, the likelihood that your defense will result in his escalating his response is very high, and the consequence of his escalation, in the hypothetical circumstance, could prove to be fatal. Nevertheless, in order to protect your own life, you must take the risk of self-defense under these circumstances.

There is no need to consider the case in which the incidence of occurrence is low and the consequence is also low.7 Here, the example of starting to speak while inside a house during the winter in Finland with all the windows and doors closed and the sound of a bird chirping that interrupts one's speech may be taken as an example of low possibility of occurrence and low severity of consequence. Of course, one may imagine a scenario in which one's speech was to warn another of a fatal and impending danger, and this warning would be blocked, but any example can be played with to tamper with the point it is designed to illustrate. All we needed to do in this case would be to qualify the original example to state that the speech one was about to utter was an exclamation of how blue the sky was this morning. But, it is important to consider what point an example is designed to make since one can always find some way to find some fault with the example one is choosing to illustrate one's point.

We also need not consider the kind of risk that involves little consequence even if the possibility of its incidence is high. For example, when we carry a glass of milk across the floor, we may easily spill some milk. But, the consequence of the spill (excepting the scenario that we or the person to whom we are carrying the milk are starving) is of no great import. Our discussion need not include examples of high risks of incidence that involve harmless consequences.

The kind of risk with which we most frequently struggle is the risk in which the incidence of its occurrence is low, but the consequence of its occurrence is grave. The example of an airplane exploding in mid-air is a good example of this type of risk. We assume in the state of technology that currently exists commercial air travel is an advantage that we do not wish

<sup>7</sup> For the sake of convenience, whenever the term 'consequence' is used it is understood that what is meant is 'harmful consequence' to primary risk taker, general public, the environment, future generations or all of the above.

to surrender. We also know that in the general, unknown risk category, that a plane may explode in mid-air. This risk taking is minimized by careful and regular inspection of the mechanical parts of the airplane and a replacement of said parts and said plane on a needful basis. Other aspects of this risk are minimized by guarding against a drunken pilot, hijacking by suicidal terrorists, etc. In such cases, risk is minimized. It is more accurate to consider that the risk in these cases is *minimized* rather than *managed*, because its possibility of occurrence is reduced rather than the occurrence of its risk being managed. The latter understanding is how the term 'risk management' might well be construed. In fact, it is difficult to understand what the term 'management' means in the case of 'risk management'.
