**5.6. Climate risk of droughts in Chile and its effect on agriculture**

550 Risk Management – Current Issues and Challenges

related to the magnitude of ENSO episodes. Historically, Paraguay has experienced above normal mean temperatures and rainfall amounts, as well as unusually heavy rainfall events, during El Niño (or ENSO positive phase) episodes. The resulting floods have affected thousands of individuals, damaged numerous houses, public buildings and highways, and submerged entire crops, cattle grasslands and livestock farms. Recent examples include the catastrophic events that took place in the Paraguay and Paraná rivers, particularly during the El Niño 1982-83, 1991-92 and 1997-98 years. In the flat Paraguayan savannahs, rainfall extreme events have also caused a proliferation of *Aedes aegypti* mosquito breeding sites, increasing the incidence of classic dengue fever. This has been particularly true in the central, northeastern and eastern portions of this country, where climatic conditions are suitable for the successful development of *Aedes* mosquitoes. During La Niña events (or ENSO negative phase), the country usually experiences the opposite (i.e. rainfall deficits and well below normal ambient temperatures). The concomitant droughts cause a decline in dairy production, an increase in the rate of desertification of arable land, and a rise in the occurrence of grassland and forest fires. They also decrease hydropower generation, increase the pollution of rivers and pools of stagnant water, and limit fluvial transportation, thereby increasing import/export transport fees and diminishing the trade of goods. Moreover, long dry spells affect sunflower, maize, soy, cotton, and wheat production, thus reducing the revenue from these key agricultural activities. All these impacts, although mainly the ones affecting the agriculture sector, prompted the creation of a multidisciplinary group led by the Paraguayan Meteorological and Hydrological Service, and the Risk Management Unit at the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Farming. Collaboratively, the group issues an agro-meteorological bulletin, every month or at other intervals depending on specific needs, following the approach presented in the decision-making information system below. Activities include (see Figure 11) the

**Figure 11.** The Paraguayan monthly agrometeorological bulletin (available online at: http://www.meteorologia.gov.py/) and the decision-making information system.

CLIMATE INFORMATION PRODUCTS

**DECISION-MAKING INFORMATION SYSTEM**

AGRICULTURAL INFORMATION PRODUCTS ASSESSMENT IN AGRICULTURE SECTOR

MEDIUM- TO LONG-TERM ASSESSMENT IN AGRICULTURE SECTOR

TECHNICIANS, ADVISORS, END-USERS

> LOCAL IMPLEMENTATION

ASSESSMENT OF AVAILABLE CLIMATE INFORMATION

SEASONAL FORECASTS

In central Chile, the *secano* zone involves a total surface of 4.362 km2, and a human population of 54.450 habitants (6.25% of the regional population). Considered as a rural area, the *modus vivendi* depends basically on agriculture. In the coastal secano of the O´Higgins Region, the total surface designated to crops and plantations is on the order of 22.800 hectares. The majority of this land possesses forage plants (27%), cereals –especially wheat- (21%), fruits (20%), vines and vineyards (25%), and in lesser proportion legumes (5%) and vegetables (2%) [26]. Presently, the cattle production is on the order of 536.170 animals, most of them being sheep.

The secano zone shows a dry season that varies between 6 and 8 months per year. Precipitations take place between April and September, with values around the 500-600 mm/year [27]. Reports on droughts in Chile go back to the times before the Spanish Colonies, with a strong impact in the agriculture production throughout the history of the country [28]. In a period of 400 years, 25% has been reported as dry and half of them as extremely dry [29]. The mean probability is therefore on the order of one dry year every 4 years. Quintana and Aceituno [30] have recently discussed trends of decrease in precipitation for central Chile of 10-30% for the second half of the XX century.

Traditionally, the drought management in Chile has been contingent. Nonetheless, in the first decade of the XXI century, government actions in this regard have increased, orienting efforts towards an integrated management of extreme climate events. For example, this originated the National Plan for Civil Protection in 2002. The formal approval of the National Climate Change Strategy in 2006 and the respective Action Plan in 2008 have revealed the adaptation needs of the different productive sectors of Chile, but also the most vulnerable territories and populations. All this created a positive scenario for the establishment of improved policies for climate risk. Three important examples after the extreme drought of 2008 are the creation of the Comité Interministerial de Recursos Hídricos (Inter-ministry Water Resources Committee), the Comisión Nacional de Emergencias Agrícolas y Riesgos Agroclimáticos (National Committee for Agriculture Emergencies and Agro-Climate Risk) and the Sistema Nacional de Gestión del Riesgo Agroclimático (the National System for Agro-Climate Risk Management, found at http://www.minagri.gov.cl/agroclimatico/comision\_nacional.php).

The public risk management initiatives implemented by the Chilean organizations involve one or several of the following mechanisms. While excellent initiatives, some of them can still be further improved. Some suggestions are pointed out in those cases.

Risk Management at the Latin American Observatory 553

estimates of the offer and demand under similar circumstances. The associated database will consolidate the emergency monitoring system and also will provide useful information for

The Latin American Observatory partnership has been able to improve several aspects of the way decision-making tools are created and provided to stakeholders and end-mile users in different institution of Latin America in the past years, increasing the dissemination of available services for assessing and –when possible- forecasting hazards and vulnerabilities. This allows advisement of authorities in taking the right course of action in order to protect

In this chapter, we have presented the general methodologies that are used in the OLE2 for risk assessment and management, along with a few case studies for different countries. The main innovation is related to the way the partnership interacts to share data, products, experiences, helping institutions with lesser human resources and capacities to take advantage of the strengths of other partners, but also sharing efforts at a regional level so the work is divided among a greater number of experts, even when they don't belong to a certain institute, or even when they are not present in the same country. This interdependence has proven a key component of the long-term sustainability of the

In terms of the methods employed, important learned lessons arise in relation to the use of probability maps when working with vulnerabilities, hazards and risk management. A probability approach involves the consideration of the related uncertainties of every step of the methodology, which are always present in this kind of analysis. This introduces an *a priori* spectrum of possible immediate actions to decision-makers, even if the real intensity of the hazard is not known until the moment of the emergency. The whole system is aimed at

Providing services that take into consideration different scales (e.g. interannual to decadal to climate change scales, as well as from basins to nation-wide to continental scales) and the evolution in time of both hazard and vulnerability probabilities has proven in our

The recognition of the local chains of dissemination of the information, institutional relationships and their adequate use and promotion instead of creating new ones is another lesson learned. The Observatory as a "boundary institution" is paying special attention to these issues and also to the importance of "translating" methods and products so the final services can not only be adequately understood but also be properly assimilated by

Finally, there is an increasingly growing culture on risk assessment and management in LAC, but as Baethgen has pointed out recently [31], it is also important to consider the benefits that may arise if there is also preparedness to take advantage of probable "positive"

experience to be a more adequate practice when assessing and managing risk.

future studies and experience-sharing with other institutions.

human populations from the direct or indirect effects of hazards.

improving the response times and also benefit/cost ratios.

decision-makers and stakeholders.

**6. Discussion and concluding remarks** 

Observatory.

#### *Early Warning System*

Chile possesses a modern early warning system that is able to detect and send alerts about natural disasters. It uses information produced by the Dirección Meteorológica de Chile (DMC), Dirección de Obras Hidráulicas (DOH), Dirección General de Aguas (DGA), Servicio Hidrográfico y Oceanográfico de la Armada (SHOA) and others. The Ministry of Agriculture via its Regional Centers for Agro-meteorological Information interacts with the climate information providers and generates tailored products for the corresponding sector. Nonetheless, these products do not always arrive on time to the farmers.

#### *Agriculture Emergency Announcements*

The Agriculture Emergency Zone (ZEA, in Spanish) announcements for droughts are fast and the corresponding institutional instances are efficient. However, the criteria used for announcing the ZEAs, which is based on the agriculture impact, may require modifications. The impacts are assessed in terms of a combination of factors: e.g. losses reported by a technical organism, request of a local authority and help requests from affected farmers. Specifically, ZEA announcements may require a criteria homogenization for both monitoring the evolution of the drought, as well as the emergency declaration itself. The announcement must adjust to regional realities and take into consideration the potable water supply and its effects on agriculture activities.

#### *Budget Availability for Emergencies*

Even when the budget allocation for emergencies is normally made through the utilization of funds already directed to other activities, in the last years, there has been an increasing amount of money in Chile properly directed to environmental emergencies. For instance, the emergency drought budget made available for the 2007-2008 case enabled the development of a higher number of implemented policies. In the Ministry of Agriculture, different mechanisms (e.g. emergency bonds, accident benefits, livestock health operations, agriculture emergency employment programs and a special incentive fund program for the recovery of degraded soils) were able to take care of around 161,000 beneficiaries.

A final comment can be included here about the implementation of an additional system to monitor the success of the risk management process in Chile. Presently there is neither an evaluation of the loss levels associated with a drought, nor an *ex post* diagnostic of the implementation mechanisms. It is necessary to possess adequate metrics to assess the effectiveness of applied strategies and the recovery of the affected populations. It is important to develop and to implement a protocol for the evaluation of the impacts of droughts. In addition, this will help with emergency management policies and the development of *ad hoc* prevention and mitigation measures focused on the vulnerability reduction of certain territories. A continuously updated registration of the users and affected people during an emergency is also required; this information will help to project estimates of the offer and demand under similar circumstances. The associated database will consolidate the emergency monitoring system and also will provide useful information for future studies and experience-sharing with other institutions.
