**4. Preventing the threats - solutions**

### **4.1. Interdisciplinary research mixing criminology into logistics**

According to several authors [50, 51, 52], criminology is interdisciplinary research of the history and future of crimes, and this paper follows this tradition by using theories from criminology to strengthen the field of logistics. This mix of theories also challenges the predominant research approach in logistics related to tangible artefacts [53], and human intervention or influence to a smaller extent [54]. The reason for this approach is that violation of law is considered a human attribute. Criminology distinguishes three elements of a crime that are present in all sorts of crime ranging from occasional violence to advance and complex economic crimes [55, 56, 57]. The elements are:

Supply Chain Security – Threats and Solutions 167

Crime opportunity is a cornerstone of criminal behaviour. There are ten crime opportunity

Some of these principles are self-explanatory and easy to understand. All of them are valid for every type of crime and therefore they are also valid for crimes committed against the transport network. The more interesting examples of these opportunities will be explained and described later in this thesis. The most important thing to remember about crime opportunity is that an opportunity alone does not explain why a crime occurs because a crime needs a motivated perpetrator and opportunity to occur [64]. The theory of crime opportunity also refers to the fourth principle of microeconomics [57] - *people respond to incentives -* and there the degree of necessary opportunity or incentive depends on the individual. The incentives could range from vindication to morality, ethics, altruism, or determinism [3, 64]. Altogether, this leads to that the relationship between threats (motivated perpetrator) and countermeasures (security) linked around a desirable outcome

It is possible to separate mankind into two different categories, depending on how decisions are made. This separation is a theoretical construction and its validity varies for every

Modern criminology uses rational choice theory as the basis for research. Rational choice theory, also known as rational action theory, is a framework for describing and modeling social and economic behavior. This theory originates in the idea of the economic man in economic research, primarily microeconomics. This theoretical model is also central in modern political science and scientific fields such as sociology and philosophy. Rational choice theory assumes that individuals choose the best action according to the constraints, opportunities, functions, and abilities they face. Today, rational choice theory in microeconomics is defined best with the first four principles of microeconomics [58]. In short, the theory states that every presumed criminal is should be considered a rational person who makes decisions about potential crime from relationships between the benefits

**4.2. Opportunity to crime** 

*1. Opportunity plays a role in causing all crimes, 2. Crime opportunities are highly specific,* 

*8. Opportunities for crime can be reduced,* 

*3. Crime opportunities are concentrated in time and place, 4. Crime opportunities depend on everyday movements, 5. One crime produces opportunities for another,* 

*6. Some products offer more tempting crime opportunities,* 

*9. Reducing opportunities does not usually displace crime,* 

or object, are complex and contextual depended.

person in every situation.

*7. Social and technological changes produce new crime opportunities,* 

*10. Focused opportunity reduction can produce wider declines in crime.* 

**4.3. The two different outlooks on mankind in criminology** 

principles as follows [63]:


These three different elements can be described as:

*Motivated perpetrator*: The perpetrator is an individual that, based on the outcome of the own decision process, commits a certain action or prepares for a certain action that is prohibited by locality or country of international law. The perpetrator can be modelled with two different categories depending on how decisions are made by each individual, namely rational choice theory (also known as the economical man theory) or determinism [54, 58]. It is commonly agreed that different crimes demand various mixtures of rational choice and determinism from the perpetrator's side, where crimes of passion (sexual crime, etc.) are considered more deterministic than property crimes (economic crime, etc.), which are more rational [59]. Thus, therefore can the general description of human behaviour be described as acting rational on the margin or limited (by circumstance, choice or mixture of both) rational choice [60, 61].

*Object*: The desirable outcomes or objects for the motivated perpetrator differ greatly depending on the motivated perpetrator's decision process. Normally is it suitable to describe the object as the primary or direct reason for the action, but also as secondary or indirect reasons [56]. The primary objects can be shipped products, resources used, infrastructure, or even the media attention an attack will receive (terrorist attacks, action junkies etc.). It is in the relationship between object and motivated perpetrator that the categorisation of the antagonistic threat is found [3].

*Lack of capable guardian*: The preventive measures that can be induced to alter the motivated perpetrator's decision process are called security [62]. If the security measures are considered insufficient by the motivated perpetrator, then there is nothing to prevent the crime [56].

Most important to remember about the elements of crime is that it is first when all three elements comes together at the same time that a crime is possible. This means that if one of the three elements is missing than is crime impossible. Any combination of lack of security and target are normally referred to as a crime opportunity.
