**4. Monte Carlo simulation with SimLab®**

The first task is to create a veritable deterministic model that represents the most likely scenario.

To use the SimLab® (SimLab, 2004), we must perform the following steps (Wajs et al., 2006):


report results and make decisions.

248 Novel Approaches and Their Applications in Risk Assessment

plan for their communities based on the use the technology for a gasification with waste to energy system. One scenario has been chosen: American Gasification System (design at 200 T/D). The Capital Budget – Project Costs of the American Scenario is given in Tables 1.

The revenues were based on the Proposal to Design, Develop and Construct a Waste-to-

The selling prices of the marketable material, and the tipping fee for each ton of waste that is delivered to the landfill are coming from the Waste Program Revenue from the city or others. The general operating parameters of the Konin's Waste-to-Energy Facility are as

Municipality has been entered into a contract to supply an average of 200/250 tons of

Capital Budget – Project Costs (USD) 1 **Etap 1**-Construction Management 600,731.00

**Etap 4-**Automatic Loading Systems 1,687,350.23 **Etap 5-**Office Furniture and Computers 4,25 **Etap 6-**Contingency Reserve 1,167,264.40 **Razem-Total Project Costs (USD**) 26,000,000.00

The first task is to create a veritable deterministic model that represents the most likely

To use the SimLab® (SimLab, 2004), we must perform the following steps (Wajs et al., 2006):

define the forecast cell, that is, the output variable - Total et the number of replication

define assumption for probabilistic variables - manufacturing costs

Table 1. Capital Budget – Project Costs of the proposed American Gasification System.

21,120,055.27

999,599.10

municipal waste per day with options for increased volume as the demand increases.

Energy Facility for the City of Konin. The revenues include:

 the tipping fees for landfill the revenues from energy sales

 operating weeks/year – 50 weeks receiving days/week – 5 days

current tons managed – 63,000 Mg/year

2 **Etap 2-**Civil& Site Design/Site Work &Building Permitting, Gasifiers System

**4. Monte Carlo simulation with SimLab®** 

simulate the model and analyze the outputs

build model the relationships

run the simulation

3 **Etap 3-**Continuous Emission Control, Monitoring

other revenues.

Systems

scenario.

follows:

In SimLab®, the assumptions or input range for each parameter was defined by choosing a probability distribution that describes the uncertainty of the data. Input distribution may be normal, uniform, triangular, skewed, or any shape that reflects the nature of the measurement being assessed.

At the start Simlab® displays the main panel (Figure 1); this panel is divided in three frames (Saltelli et al., 2004):



Fig. 1. Simlab® main panel.
