**6. Acknowledgment**

This work was supported by the CNCSIS - UEFISCDI, project number 1028/2009, PN II – IDEI code 14/2008. We would also like to thank to the Institute of Geodynamics of the Romanian Academy for providing electromagnetic data and facilities for the present research project.

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**Earthquake Prediction: Analogy with** 

**Internet and Computer Systems** 

*Brazil* 

**Forecasting Models for Cyber Attacks in** 

Elvis Pontes, Anderson A. A. Silva, Adilson E. Guelfi and Sérgio T. Kofuji *Laboratory of Integrated Systems, Polytechnic School of the University of São Paulo* 

Currently, security of the cyber space (computer networks and the Internet) is mostly based on detection and/or blocking of attacks by the use of Intrusion Detection and Prevention System (IDPS), according to (National Institute of Standards and Technology [NIST SP800- 94], 2010). However IDPS lacks in security as it is based on *postmortem* approaches - threats and attacks are identified and/or blocked only after they can inflict serious damage to the computer systems either while attacks are happening, or when attacks have already

On the subject of earthquakes, one can notice the same kind of limitation: once an earthquake has already begun, devices can provide warnings with just few seconds before major shaking arrives at a given location (Bleier & Freund, 2005), (Su & Zhu, 2009). In the cyber space context, intending to cover the deficiency of late warnings, predicting techniques have already been approached in a small number of studies for cyber attacks in the last few years (Pontes & Zucchi, 2010), (Haslum et al, 2008), (Lai-Chenq, 2007), (Yin et al

Although studies based on 1) historical earthquake records and 2) monitoring the earth's surface had contributed to map affected regions, short-term earthquake predictions are not

Some researchers are studying and correlating signals gathered in the ionosphere that can

According to (Bleier & Freund, 2005) "both the lights and the radio waves appear to be electromagnetic disturbances that happen when crystalline rocks are deformed--or even broken--by the slow grinding of the earth that occurs just before the dramatic slip that is an

Some occurrences of earthquakes show signals and disturbances like following reported


**1. Introduction** 

2004).

**1.1 Motivation** 

earthquake".

ones:

efficient yet (Bleier & Freund, 2005).

imposed losses to the systems (Haslum et al, 2008).

precede earthquakes, like odd radio noise and lights in the sky.

Wortel, M.J.R., & Spakman, W. (2000). Subduction and slab detachment in Mediterranean-Carpathian region. *Science,* 290, pp. 1910-1917 **5** 
