**5. Discussion and conclusion**

72 Earthquake Research and Analysis – Statistical Studies, Observations and Planning

The algorithm Q1 aimed at detection of joint occurrence of seismic gap and *b-*value change was presented in (Tikhonov, 1999; 2000). This algorithm has been applied to recognize the time of increased probability for large (M 7.5) earthquake in the Southern Kuril Islands since the last large earthquake occurring here in December 03, 1995. Algorithm was examined at the time period since 1962 until 1995. Than the use of the algorithm in the real time regime has begun. The anomalies in four predictive functions of the Q1 algorithm were revealed on December 2007. In Fig. 22 the area of seismic quiescence statistically proved by the use of the Q1 algorithm is shown. The hazardous period for an earthquake M 7.4 was declared for the next two years (2008-2009). Note that the use of the M8 algorithm (http://mitp.ru/predictions/html) had resulted in the alarm period for the similar space-

But the alarm has proved to be false. Till now there is no strong earthquake in the Southern

The summary of algorithms application is presented in Table 2. Note that the number of examples is insufficient for statistical estimation of relative validity of different applied

Algorithms

Seismic quiescence Self-

first type (not used) second type (not

used)

ZMAP- algorithm technique visual

developing processes

second type (+) (+) (no existed)

second type (+) (not used)\* (no existed)

second type (+) (+) (no existed)

second type (+) (not used) (-)

Q1

(not used) (no existed)

**4.5.3 Case 5 summary** 

time domain.

Kuril Islands.

algorithms.

Example No

**4.6 Case 1-5 summary** 

M8

3 (-) (+)

Table 2. The summary of algorithms application (+) - means the algorithm was applied successfully;

(not existed) – this new algorithm was developed later.

(-) - means the algorithm failure;

1 (+) not used\* first type (not used)

2 (+) not used\* first type (not used)

4 not used\* not used\* first type (+)

5 (-) not used\* first type (not used)

(not used) - means the algorithm could be used but was not applied;

(not used)\* - means that the algorithm cannot be used due to different reasons;

The analysis of behavior of seismicity within the generalized vicinity of large earthquake gives possibility to verify and to detail the characteristic parameters of the fore- and aftershock sequences and a number of other anomalies inherent to a vicinity of strong events (Rodkin, 2008). It was confirmed that the averaged fore- and aftershock cascades do obey the power law evolution. Power-law exponent of the foreshock cascade was found to be less than that of the aftershock cascade, and thus, the rate of increase of foreshocks number toward the moment of occurrence of the main event is slower than the rate of aftershocks decays. The typical duration of the aftershock process for M7+ events is about 100 days, while the average duration of the foreshock cascade in the constructed generalized vicinity was found to be quite noticeable during 10-20 days. The confirmation of a power law evolution for both fore- and aftershock cascades testifies that large earthquakes can be examined in terms of the critical phenomena. In this case it can be expected that the process of strong earthquake occurrence will be accompanied by other anomalies with a critical-like character of behavior. And factually, in parallel with the power-law fore- and aftershock cascades a stress-strain instability was shown to take place in the generalized vicinity of strong earthquake (see (Rodkin, 2008) for a more detailed description of these anomalies). It is worth mentioning also that much weaker increase in a number of events and the process of softening were revealed in a broader (few hundred days) time vicinity of a large earthquake beyond the domain of the fore- and aftershock cascades occurrence.

The set of precursory anomalies indicates the approaching of a strong event quite definitely. Thus one can conclude that the effective short- and intermediate-term earthquake forecasting appears to be possible in the case of an essential increase of volume of statistical information available for forecasting. Now in every particular case of earthquake forecasting the volume of available information is much less than it is available in the generalized vicinity of strong earthquake, and correspondingly the results of forecasting are expected to be substantially less certain. It does take place actually.

The state of art in a practice of earthquake forecasting is presented by an example of earthquake forecasting performed for the Sakhalin Island and the surrounding areas in the Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia. In two cases (1 and 4) from the five described above the whole set of earthquake parameters were successfully forecasted and thus these cases satisfy the term of "earthquake prediction". This practice suggests that at least in some cases earthquakes can be forecasted despite the shortage of available data.

All the used algorithms of earthquake forecasting are based upon the general properties of seismic regime in vicinity of strong earthquake. These properties (besides the seismic quiescence) are similar with those revealed in the generalized vicinity of strong earthquake. The "seismic quiescence" was not found in the generalized vicinity of strong earthquake because of anisotropic character of this type of precursor anomaly in relation to epicenter of the corresponding main shock.

We expect that the precursor features of the seismic regime behavior revealed in the generalized vicinity of strong earthquake can be useful in an earthquake prediction. These typical anomalies can be used as ideal images of precursory anomalies developing in process of preparation of individual strong earthquakes. Having in mind the volume of data

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#### **6. Acknowledgements**

This work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, grant No. 11-05- 00663, and the European grant FP7 No. 262005 SEMEP.

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**4** 

 *Romania* 

**Earthquakes Precursors** 

Dumitru Stanica and Dragos Armand Stanica *Institute of Geodynamics of the Romanian Academy* 

Strong earthquake of magnitude 7 or more (on the Richter scale) strikes about once a year somewhere in the world and, several times triggers a cascade of follow-on events, such as tsunamis, floods, landslides, nuclear power plant crisis and public health catastrophes in the affected regions. Thus, during the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake and Indian Ocean tsunami nearly 230,000 people were killed and more than one million people were left homeless in 13 countries surrounding the Indian Ocean. The May 12th, 2008 earthquake in Western Sichuan, China and January 8th, 2010 earthquake in Haiti caused a death toll well over 75,000 and 320,000 people, respectively. The latest M9 Tohoku earthquake of March 11th 2011 in Japan was the biggest recorded earthquake ever to hit Japan. The earthquake triggered extremely destructive tsunami waves of up to 10 meters that struck Japan minutes after the quakes and caused about 26,000 deaths and 3000 injured. Recent catastrophic earthquakes (2004–2011) occurred in Asia, Europe and America have provided and renewed interest in question of the existence of precursory signals related to earthquakes. In these circumstances, the science community is struggling on how to provide early information related to the occurrence time of such events in order to reduce the loss of human life and property. Previous studies (Gotoh et al., 2002; Fraser-Smith et al., 1990; Freund et al., 1999; Hattori et al., 2006; Hayakawa & Fujinawa, 1994; Hayakawa & Molchanov, 2002; Kopytenko et al., 1994; Liu et al., 2004; Ouzounov et al., 2006; Parrot et al., 2007; Pulinets et al., 2004; Stanica & M. Stanica, 2007; Stanica & D.A. Stanica, 2010; Tramutoli et al., 2005; Tronin et al., 2004; Varotsos, 2005) have shown that there were precursory signals observed on the ground and in space associated with several earthquakes. In the last 10 years, the interdisciplinary group for Electromagnetic Study of Earthquakes and Volcanoes (EMSEV) have demonstrated that the existence of the electromagnetic earthquake precursors by terrestrial and satellite observations is not trivial, and it is necessary a wide international cooperation and several more years of research with primary focus in the following directions: (i) what is the possible generation mechanisms of the electromagnetic phenomena; and (ii) whether electromagnetic precursors systematically precede earthquakes. In this respect, taking into account that the seismic-active Vrancea zone, Romania is one of the "hot" subjects in the Eastern Europe, this paper is focused on the specific methodology able to emphasize the short–term electromagnetic (EM) precursory parameters, associated to intermediate depth earthquakes (70-180Km). We consider that one of the realistic mechanisms for triggering such events in the seismogenic volume can be the dehydration of rocks which make fluid-assisted faulting possible. The changes of electrical conductivity occurred before an earthquake, as a sequence of geodynamic processes

**1. Introduction** 

