**Simulating Collective Behavior in Natural Disaster Situations: A Multi-Agent Approach**

Robson dos Santos França1, Maria das Graças B. Marietto1, Margarethe Born Steinberger<sup>1</sup> and Nizam Omar2 <sup>1</sup>*Universidade Federal do ABC* <sup>2</sup>*Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie Brazil*

#### **1. Introduction**

434 Earthquake Research and Analysis – Statistical Studies, Observations and Planning

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The usage of simulations has been improved for quite some time. From mechanical artifacts that attempt to mimic a certain dynamic event using known physical properties up to complete representations of virtual worlds based on real life events which were augmented by concepts in order to prove a theory or to test a specific scenario. The key words here are "modeling", "constructing a simulacrum", "experimentation" and "evaluation". Simulations allow any researcher to explore, try out new ideas, check some theories in a controlled environment before testing in real life, and so forth. Psychology deals with individuals, Sociology with the study of human groups and the formation of institutions, both, individually, were not enough to study the humanŠs social behavior. All human sciences tried to create theories about reality, searching for well-defined and established patterns. The non-conformity with such patterns is considered a mistake, or even a wrongdoing. Taking a whole new approach, the field of Collective Behavior deals with human groups and collectivities that contradict or reinterpret societyŠs norms and standards. Crowd behavior has been studied by many researchers. Theoretical models have been established to understand them. This chapter will present a simulation model for panic in crowds phenomena based on the symbolic interactionism approach. Section 2 will present a review of the main concepts of Sociology and Collective behavior and establish a framework to be used in the model of crowd to be simulated. Section 3 will present a computation model and a simulation model of panic in crowd phenomenon, both in its theoretical aspects and its practical issues. The collective behavior studied in the previous section will be used as basis for the simulation model. Also, the main concepts regarding multi-agent based simulations will be presented. The model simulated have been applied to a fire incident and validated. Section 4 presents a generalization of the model proposed and delineates a future application for other kind of disasters as earthquakes. Section 5 shows some conclusions about the study here presented.

**2.1.1 Historical abstract**

actions.

Killian, 1957).

Santos França, 2010).

one;

contagion;

features of the crowds were:

• The trend to put suggested ideas into action.

criminal acts when he is in a collectivity.

**2.1.2 Collective behavior development**

The collective behavior was studied in distinct ways through the ages. Initially researchers such as Tarde and Durkheim developed social theories in order to justify the actions performed by offenders or as a mean of explaining how an isolated individual could have a socially accepted behavior and the very same individual could be able to participate in

Simulating Collective Behavior in Natural Disaster Situations: A Multi-Agent Approach 437

Emile Durkheim claimed that the group was important to understand the individual's behavior. Culture would be formed by the combination of personal minds instead of a chain of imitations from one subject by the other members of the group. This was one of the early conceptions of the group mind, a supra-personal entity which has an autonomous existence from the composing members of the group (Durkheim, 1895). In other words, the individuals engaged in a collective behavior unconsciously help to form the group mind that guides their

Following an opposite direction, Gabriel Tarde considered that the social behaviors happen due to man's natural inclination to mimic others. For Tarde, the interactions among individuals worked only to spread the mimic's individual results and the interactions were not responsible by their formation. According to Tarde's approach, collective behavior describes the person's socially anomalous behavior into a group and collective context and in situations not induced by criminal activities, such as the tulip mania (Mackay & Baruch, 1932) or the great social movements, such as the fall of the Bastille (Tarde, 1890; Turner &

After a criminal approach for the collective behavior, some researchers analyzed the collective behavior phenomenon in an individualized and superficial way, such as Sigmund Freud (Freud, 1955). However, some other researchers such as William McDougall and Gustave Le Bon developed the collective behavior studies further by creating an early classification of the phenomena, as well as a detailed profile of each member of the collectivity, but also taking into consideration that the collectivity itself has its own specific features. This second attempt to understand the collective behavior phenomenon followed a psychological standpoint (dos

Le Bon is considered one of the founders of the collective behavior studies and he was one of the firsts to use the term crowd to describe the collectivities, developing the Crowd Psychology and treating the crowd as the prototype of all group behaviors. The focus of his studies was the social behavior by using the "the crowd mind" theory. For Le Bon, the main

• The decreasing of the conscious personality along with the prominence of the unconscious

• The ideas and feelings of the members of the crowd are guided by suggestion and
