**4.5.3 Case 5 summary**

The algorithm Q1 aimed at detection of joint occurrence of seismic gap and *b-*value change was presented in (Tikhonov, 1999; 2000). This algorithm has been applied to recognize the time of increased probability for large (M 7.5) earthquake in the Southern Kuril Islands since the last large earthquake occurring here in December 03, 1995. Algorithm was examined at the time period since 1962 until 1995. Than the use of the algorithm in the real time regime has begun. The anomalies in four predictive functions of the Q1 algorithm were revealed on December 2007. In Fig. 22 the area of seismic quiescence statistically proved by the use of the Q1 algorithm is shown. The hazardous period for an earthquake M 7.4 was declared for the next two years (2008-2009). Note that the use of the M8 algorithm (http://mitp.ru/predictions/html) had resulted in the alarm period for the similar spacetime domain.

But the alarm has proved to be false. Till now there is no strong earthquake in the Southern Kuril Islands.
