**4.1.4 Scenario three**

In this scenario water supply is maintained at the same level as 2005. Residential water use will be maintained at 105,379,575 m3 through the planning horizon, but the water services will be kept at the same level of having 135 litre/cap/day. To make this possible, a soft path will be developed to provide the additional 102,776,076 m3 to reach the level 208,155,650 m3 necessary for a water use of 135 litre/cap/day and a population of Amman of 3665483 in 2030.

Water Soft Path Analysis – Jordan Case 307

5. Review Water Supply options: Identify all current sources of water (surface and ground) and determine whether any is being over-used or degraded. Reduce withdrawals of fresh water or releases of wastewater that threaten long-term renewable use, and reject any new sources that cross major shed boundaries or create serious threat to ecological, cultural or social values. Indicate the relevant range of future

6. Backcast (in contrast with forecast): Create various soft paths by designing incremental policies and programs to get from here to the future. Check each option to see whether it seems economically feasible, socially acceptable and politically achievable. This is an

The first step in preparing a soft path analysis is to establish a base line of current water use services. Looking at the water services allows us to evaluate the effect of improvements in end use technology and water demand management while maintaining the purpose for

According to earlier calculations in this section water use per capita in Amman was

Consumption

Understanding how the customer uses water is important to understanding how where to get conservation savings. End use information – that is, information about water flow at each specific point that the customer uses water – is important not only to analyzing conservation potential, but also to forecasting increases in water demand in the future.

No data exists of exact measures of water use services in Amman. To develop basis of estimate for water use services, prior studies in Ammam, and the results of a model developed by Rosenberg (personal contacts) were used. This model of household water use

Drinking 2.0% 2,003,728 Toilets 17.8% 17,833,179 Showers 27% 27,050,328 Clothes Washers 11% 11,020504 Kitchen and Bath Faucets 27% 27,050,328 Outdoor 6.7% 6,712,489 Others 7% 7,013,048 Car 1.5% 1,502,796 Total 100% 100,186,400

Total

(m3)

Consumption

supply adjustment that may result from climate change.

iterative process of backdating.

**4.3.1 Disaggregating consumption of sectors** 

Table 5. Indoor water consumption by end use

Household Fixture % Total

**4.3 Step 1: Identify water services** 

which the water is required.

**4.3.1.1 Residential water use** 

estimated at 106 liters/day.

Figure 8 presents the official demand projection for Amman, along with the propped three soft paths.

Fig. 8. Official projection and soft path scenarios for Amman Governorate

### **4.2 Methodology**

The following basic steps for a soft path plan will be followed to develop the three Scenarios, these steps are after (Brandes et al, 2005)


Figure 8 presents the official demand projection for Amman, along with the propped three

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 **Year**

The following basic steps for a soft path plan will be followed to develop the three

1. Identify Water Services: List all services provided by water (e.g. residential indoor and outdoor, municipal parks, cooling). Some questions to answer include: Who is going to need water? For what purpose or goal water is needed? What kind of water is needed to meet a specific goal? How much water of a particular quality is needed to meet given

2. Adopt a Projection for the Governorate- Look 25 years in the future of pre-existing official documents, demographic projections, and expectations of economic growth. Next, apply existing water use patterns to this projection (on a use-by-use basis), thus

3. Establish a Desired Future Condition: Create a desired future pattern for water supply and use. For example, a governorate might assume all future growth will be offset by

conservation or efficiency and no new water sources will need to be developed. 4. Analyze Water Quantity and Quality: Establish the quantity of water required to provide the service identified for this projected future (Step 3) by applying as many of the water conserving options as can be adopted within the given time frame. Determine which uses require high water quality water notably (drinking, cooking and bathing) and which uses can proceed with lower quality water (toilet flushing, gardening, most

Fig. 8. Official projection and soft path scenarios for Amman Governorate

Scenarios, these steps are after (Brandes et al, 2005)

enabling a "business as usual" baseline.

forms of Agriculture, industrial applications, etc.)

Scenrio One & Scenario Three Scenario Two Official Scenario

soft paths.

0

**4.2 Methodology** 

goal?

50

100

150

200

**Million Cubic Meter**

250

300

350

