**2. Fossil and renewable energy resources and their means of exploitation**

Energy is always bound to and thus stored in a state of matter and has to be extracted thereof and transformed into the corresponding form for a certain usage. Primarily the energy we have access to comes either from nuclear fusion as in our sun (heating and driving the atmosphere), from nuclear decay within earth (keeping a molten core, volcanism, plate tectonics), and from the gravitational fields of our planetary system (tidal changes). This primary access is far from endless or renewable: e.g. hydrogen fusion has been done 2/3 already, i.e. only ~2 billion years are left for hydrogen fusion and thus already in ~300 million years the earth atmosphere will start to be heated up so much that life as one knows cannot exist anymore. Radioactive decay and the gravitational energy are also slowly used up. Consequently, the term renewable in that sense is only a relative terminology in respect to human time scales: Considering sun energy present for another 100 million years means ~30 million human generations or ~30 times the evolutionary development to homo sapiens. Nevertheless, on a human scale the term renewable thus really makes sense. In contrast, fossil energy resources (despite geogene gas and radioactives) consist mainly of organic substances produced through biogene conversion of sun energy by photosynthesis and their further transformation by geological process to coal, gas and oil. I.e. they are in principle a tertiary energy resource already. Due to the slow geogene processes and geological exploitation degree, the accessible size of these resources is fairly limited and especially concerning the human energy consumption very limited compared to the size of primary energy resources, their lasting and also not changeable natural production. Also the forms of energy which are termed renewables are in that sense secondary resources: i) sun energy is stored in photons, i.e. light, ii) wind energy is due to the sun energy transformed to heat creating atmospheric pressure imbalances, iii) hydro energy is due to water evaporation and gravitational lifting to higher altitudes and rain, iv) tidal energy is based on the earth-moon gravitational energy and stored in ocean movement,

Sustained Renewability: Approached by Systems Theory and Human Ecology 25

integrated in a systemic manner anymore with high efficiency. Beyond, fossil resources have one big drawback: they produce waste, i.e. CO2 is the leftover, whereas renewables only convert the energy form but not a resource additionally to the energy form. Thus, in a

As described briefly before, there are huge renewable energy resources available, which are based on the earth own geological nuclear decay, the suns nuclear fusion energy reaching us as light, and planetary gravitation. Simultaneously, there is a great shortage of exploitable resources as constantly claimed by users and providers – similar to the IT sector. Consequently, this paradoxical situation must have a reason, despite even the relative slow turnover rates of technical solutions in the energy sector, which are ~30-50 years for a production facility and perhaps the double for a complete new technology generation, compared to the 3-5 year fast turnover rates for a full technology replacement cycle in the IT sector. Thus, comparing the production solutions and organization of fossil and renewable energy resources is important. Both are based on dedicated organizations which handle the technical as well as management challenges and posses the same fundamental organization principles similar to the IT sector: i) ownership and control, ii) size of plant, iii) diversity and distribution, iv) technological broadness, and v) spatial distribution. To understand further the challenges, which still exist despite the crucial longing for energy and IT, the main three

The renewable energy sector has grown tremendously in Germany in the last 10-15 years mainly by guarantying a fixed price for the produced energy allowing return of investment of ~6% per year over 20 years: Today ~25,000 wind turbines with ~30 GW peak performance and ~800,000 photovoltaic plants with ~18 GW peak performance of electricity deliver ~7% and ~3.5% of the German electricity consumption. Together with biogas and biofuel production, combined heat and electricity production (KWK) and hydroelectric plants from lakes and rivers – each from some kW to some MW peak capacity – in total ~17% of the German electricity are now renewable and emission free. Whereas wind mills have a peak performance of 300 kW to 7.5 MW and are usually aggregated in parks of up to 50-100 mills, photovoltaic plants range from 1-2 kW to ~30-50 MW peak performance. Wind parks naturally reside in wind rich regions but are meanwhile spreading to the southern continental regions. Photovoltaic plants are installed throughout the country on the roofs of private households, government, or industry buildings. Bigger ones are also placed on farmland and conversion zones e.g. unused industrial estates. Investment costs range from some thousand Euros for a photovoltaic plant on a family home, some million for a medium sized windmill, to some hundred million for a big photovoltaic plant or wind park. Consequently, the production plants fit different business models and investor groups from the individual up to institutionalized funds. The electricity is mainly introduced into the grid and has priority by law over conventional electricity production. The electricity grid providers measure the production and the producers are monthly refunded by the local grid or electricity company. The grid belonged to the four big German electricity companies ENBW, EON, RWE, and Vattenfall until recently, but is now in other private hands. The free energy flow to the consumer – so called grid-neutrality – is guarantied by law. The price guaranty to the producer is shared by an addition to the bill of all electricity consumers in a social manner and often also sold as special green electricity product – then by green energy sellers. Besides the knowledge gain in Germany and being the world

limited world this unavoidable leads to pollution and thus e.g. climate challenge.

**3. Generic organization of the fossil and renewable energy sectors** 

different electricity production approaches in Germany are analysed:

v) geothermal energy is heat from radioactive decay stored in the geosphere itself, and vi) biomass is sun energy transformed by photosynthesis into biological matter as e.g. wood.

### **2.1 Renewable energy resources and their distributed exploitation**

Renewable energy resources are due to their primary and secondary origins in principle homogenously distributed in an extensive and variant mixture compared to the very localized fossil resources: i) sun energy depends mostly on the geographic altitude, ii) wind energy is strong at coasts, great plains or mountains, iii) hydro electric energy needs rain, mountains, or rivers, iv) tidal energy needs tidal differences, v) geothermal energy is best at geological active sites, and vi) biomass counts on a vivid agro- and forestry capability, i.e. thus fertile soils and water. Actually in biological terms the presence of ample energy resources at each location, which are available in principle everywhere and in principle exploitable similarly, are the deeper basis for the thriving of life, i.e. the success of evolution (neglecting now extreme life forms). Three different exploitation means of these renewables can be distinguished e.g. in electricity production: i) direct conversion of e.g. sun energy by photovoltaics or heat by thermotaics, ii) conversion of kinetic energy via a generator as for hydro, tidal, or wind power, and iii) chemical conversion into heat as for biomass or directly for geothermal power, then into kinetic energy before electricity generation. Consequently, to reach the highest exploitation and conversion efficiency it is obvious to use the local resource mixture according to the usage profile, and only transport the overproduction to where it currently might be needed or stored for local demand rich times, i.e. to secure supply for the peak demand. Thus, here also the most systemic integration, that means the best adaption to the local usage scenarios can be reached, since the conversion plants, i.e. photovoltaic modules, wind turbines, small hydroelectric plants etc. are relatively small in size and can be aggregated in the most modular and thus sensible way. Also the exploiters and/or producers are either the same as the users or at least very near to them, thus ownership and participation in the exploitation-transformation-usage cycle can be maximal.

### **2.2 Fossil energy resources and their central exploitation**

In contrast, the fossil resources are highly localized due to their origin: coal, gas, oil and uranium deposits are regional and need with their decline increased exploitation efforts. Despite being a local resource in a globalized world they are transported to the power plants. Thus, local economic thriving depends on an efficient transport system. Fossil energy conversion is based on chemical (in the case of nuclear decay, physical) transformation into heat, which is then transformed into kinetic energy driving turbines connected to generators for electric energy. Whereas renewable conversion is high-tech, the latter is still based on the steam engine and the electric generator. The best efficiencies are reached for big plants or a systemic combination of electricity and heat. Thus, due to the size the transformed energy transport itself becomes a major challenge and cost factor due to the large losses involved. From evolutionary optimized biological systems it is known that their scaling and success is based on: i) the distribution system is fractal, ii) the transport loss is minimized, and iii) the smallest part of the transport system has the same minimum size. Unfortunately, for the modern distribution networks this is mostly due to redundancy issues not the case anymore. Due to the plant size and the transport issues, the investments are high and only doable by international private companies, with relatively low integration with the local usage structures or participation of the local users. Thus, the production and usage can hardly be

v) geothermal energy is heat from radioactive decay stored in the geosphere itself, and vi) biomass is sun energy transformed by photosynthesis into biological matter as e.g. wood.

Renewable energy resources are due to their primary and secondary origins in principle homogenously distributed in an extensive and variant mixture compared to the very localized fossil resources: i) sun energy depends mostly on the geographic altitude, ii) wind energy is strong at coasts, great plains or mountains, iii) hydro electric energy needs rain, mountains, or rivers, iv) tidal energy needs tidal differences, v) geothermal energy is best at geological active sites, and vi) biomass counts on a vivid agro- and forestry capability, i.e. thus fertile soils and water. Actually in biological terms the presence of ample energy resources at each location, which are available in principle everywhere and in principle exploitable similarly, are the deeper basis for the thriving of life, i.e. the success of evolution (neglecting now extreme life forms). Three different exploitation means of these renewables can be distinguished e.g. in electricity production: i) direct conversion of e.g. sun energy by photovoltaics or heat by thermotaics, ii) conversion of kinetic energy via a generator as for hydro, tidal, or wind power, and iii) chemical conversion into heat as for biomass or directly for geothermal power, then into kinetic energy before electricity generation. Consequently, to reach the highest exploitation and conversion efficiency it is obvious to use the local resource mixture according to the usage profile, and only transport the overproduction to where it currently might be needed or stored for local demand rich times, i.e. to secure supply for the peak demand. Thus, here also the most systemic integration, that means the best adaption to the local usage scenarios can be reached, since the conversion plants, i.e. photovoltaic modules, wind turbines, small hydroelectric plants etc. are relatively small in size and can be aggregated in the most modular and thus sensible way. Also the exploiters and/or producers are either the same as the users or at least very near to them, thus ownership and participation in the exploitation-transformation-usage cycle can be maximal.

In contrast, the fossil resources are highly localized due to their origin: coal, gas, oil and uranium deposits are regional and need with their decline increased exploitation efforts. Despite being a local resource in a globalized world they are transported to the power plants. Thus, local economic thriving depends on an efficient transport system. Fossil energy conversion is based on chemical (in the case of nuclear decay, physical) transformation into heat, which is then transformed into kinetic energy driving turbines connected to generators for electric energy. Whereas renewable conversion is high-tech, the latter is still based on the steam engine and the electric generator. The best efficiencies are reached for big plants or a systemic combination of electricity and heat. Thus, due to the size the transformed energy transport itself becomes a major challenge and cost factor due to the large losses involved. From evolutionary optimized biological systems it is known that their scaling and success is based on: i) the distribution system is fractal, ii) the transport loss is minimized, and iii) the smallest part of the transport system has the same minimum size. Unfortunately, for the modern distribution networks this is mostly due to redundancy issues not the case anymore. Due to the plant size and the transport issues, the investments are high and only doable by international private companies, with relatively low integration with the local usage structures or participation of the local users. Thus, the production and usage can hardly be

**2.1 Renewable energy resources and their distributed exploitation** 

**2.2 Fossil energy resources and their central exploitation** 

integrated in a systemic manner anymore with high efficiency. Beyond, fossil resources have one big drawback: they produce waste, i.e. CO2 is the leftover, whereas renewables only convert the energy form but not a resource additionally to the energy form. Thus, in a limited world this unavoidable leads to pollution and thus e.g. climate challenge.

### **3. Generic organization of the fossil and renewable energy sectors**

As described briefly before, there are huge renewable energy resources available, which are based on the earth own geological nuclear decay, the suns nuclear fusion energy reaching us as light, and planetary gravitation. Simultaneously, there is a great shortage of exploitable resources as constantly claimed by users and providers – similar to the IT sector. Consequently, this paradoxical situation must have a reason, despite even the relative slow turnover rates of technical solutions in the energy sector, which are ~30-50 years for a production facility and perhaps the double for a complete new technology generation, compared to the 3-5 year fast turnover rates for a full technology replacement cycle in the IT sector. Thus, comparing the production solutions and organization of fossil and renewable energy resources is important. Both are based on dedicated organizations which handle the technical as well as management challenges and posses the same fundamental organization principles similar to the IT sector: i) ownership and control, ii) size of plant, iii) diversity and distribution, iv) technological broadness, and v) spatial distribution. To understand further the challenges, which still exist despite the crucial longing for energy and IT, the main three different electricity production approaches in Germany are analysed:

The renewable energy sector has grown tremendously in Germany in the last 10-15 years mainly by guarantying a fixed price for the produced energy allowing return of investment of ~6% per year over 20 years: Today ~25,000 wind turbines with ~30 GW peak performance and ~800,000 photovoltaic plants with ~18 GW peak performance of electricity deliver ~7% and ~3.5% of the German electricity consumption. Together with biogas and biofuel production, combined heat and electricity production (KWK) and hydroelectric plants from lakes and rivers – each from some kW to some MW peak capacity – in total ~17% of the German electricity are now renewable and emission free. Whereas wind mills have a peak performance of 300 kW to 7.5 MW and are usually aggregated in parks of up to 50-100 mills, photovoltaic plants range from 1-2 kW to ~30-50 MW peak performance. Wind parks naturally reside in wind rich regions but are meanwhile spreading to the southern continental regions. Photovoltaic plants are installed throughout the country on the roofs of private households, government, or industry buildings. Bigger ones are also placed on farmland and conversion zones e.g. unused industrial estates. Investment costs range from some thousand Euros for a photovoltaic plant on a family home, some million for a medium sized windmill, to some hundred million for a big photovoltaic plant or wind park. Consequently, the production plants fit different business models and investor groups from the individual up to institutionalized funds. The electricity is mainly introduced into the grid and has priority by law over conventional electricity production. The electricity grid providers measure the production and the producers are monthly refunded by the local grid or electricity company. The grid belonged to the four big German electricity companies ENBW, EON, RWE, and Vattenfall until recently, but is now in other private hands. The free energy flow to the consumer – so called grid-neutrality – is guarantied by law. The price guaranty to the producer is shared by an addition to the bill of all electricity consumers in a social manner and often also sold as special green electricity product – then by green energy sellers. Besides the knowledge gain in Germany and being the world

Sustained Renewability: Approached by Systems Theory and Human Ecology 27

82 Million + Industry National Consumers

Public City Producers Government/Public

**German "Public" Producers The German Four**

*Seller/Broker Organization*

Users

82 Million + Industry National Consumers

International Companies Industrial/Private

*The German Four*

4 Producers ~100 Plants

> Monopolistic Monotechnic Central

*National Distribution Grid*

*Public-Private Organization*

Central Providers

*~ 700 Public Sellers*

~700-900 Producers ~1300 Plants

Ballanced Mixtur e

Fig. 1. Abstraction and detailed structure of the German electricity sector, showing three pillars and the four levels of infrastructures involved from production to usage. The three

government/public city/regional producers, and the very few industrial privately owned international companies. All share four levels of infrastructure from production to usage: i) users, ii) seller organizations, iii) the semi-private, i.e. public-private network organizations, and iv) individual producers. The three pillars are already characterized by their means of energy production: i) renewable and small scale, ii) regional and medium sized, and iii) classic large scale fossil and atomic. Whereas the first can be characterized by pluristic, polytechnic local/decentral means, the last is characterized by monopolistic, monotechnic, and central terms. Although, the details may vary, the structure leads to similar challenges on the micro and macro level, which can be understood by the *Human Ecology* rectangle

Generalizing, the renewables obviously belong to the class of individual/public distributed producers with a pluristic, polytechnic and local/decentral approach, whereas the "German Four" large scale producers are clearly industrial/private with a monopolistic, monotechnic, and central attitude. The German government/public city producers are a mixture of both: government and public, not too pluristic, polytechnic, and local/decentral and neither industrial/private, nor monopolistic, monotechnic, and central. Consequently, this shows already the similar property and power structures in the energy and IT sectors. Especially the "German Four" show the similarity to the newest development concerning IT resources, i.e. clouds, with the same monopolistic structures etc. and blocking effects on development. The analysis of these and other such many an infrastructure shows that four levels of organization are involved also in energy producing and distributing organizations: i) users,

pillars are characterized by: i) individual/public "private" producers, ii)

*National Distribution Grid*

*Seller/Broker Organization*

Users

82 Million + Industry National Consumers

**German Renewable PV/W/KWK**

Private Producers Individual/Public

*~ 900 Sellers*

e.g. ~800.000 PV Plants i.e. Local PV Producers

Pluristic Polytechnic Local/Decentral

*National Distribution Grid*

*Public-Private Organization*

Individual Producer

leader in renewable energy facility production with ~350,000 employed people meanwhile, the resource, i.e. sun or wind, has not to be paid for, which leads to a big economic advantage. Due to the range of business models in principle everybody can be an electricity producer, which means a democratization of electricity or renewable energy production within society.

The public city producers, which often have been owned by the cities or regions especially in the past have a very conventional portfolio consisting of coal or gas power plants, which are sized to serve the local or regional electricity and sometimes thermal, i.e. heating, energy needs. Historically they developed when electricity and heat was starting to be needed by major parts of society, i.e. between 1850 and 1950. The electricity is put into the electricity grid, which has often belonged also to the public city producers. The distribution network for the heat, which is a byproduct of the conventional electricity production, has also been build up by them, since this was relatively easy to implement concerning the technical and organizational efforts for a well thermally isolated pipeline system underground from production to consumers throughout a city. Electricity, nevertheless, is mainly traded at the European Energy Exchange and production depends on the national demand price, which depends again on the coal, oil, and gas trading prices, i.e. depends on a European/worldwide market price and thus is a major part of the production costs. The local city producers are also the major seller for their electricity. Meanwhile, many of them possess also renewable energy production capabilities (photovoltaic plants or wind parks, usually regional), besides the classic hydroelectric production facilities at lakes and rivers, which again has regulatory reasons. Since they are connected to the regional government and thus are controlled by the local inhabitants they are relatively much bound into the regional development process as well and also impact the regional industry.

In contrast, the four large-scale producers of electricity in Germany – ENBW, EON, RWE, and Vattenfall, who are often termed the big "German Four" – are meanwhile world wide acting producers of mainly conventional coal, gas, oil, and also atomic electric power. Their plants have investment costs of billions and their regional placement depends besides the energy production process and consumption needs mostly on business and regulatory reasons. Thermal energy is only in some cases used locally for heating since the amount surpasses by far the local demand, thus the electricity, which is put to the electricity grid, is often internationally transported through the network to the consumer. The network for a long time mainly belonged also to them until recently, and had been bought from regional city producers over the years, thus the "German Four" controlled production and transport in a very monopolistic manner. Naturally, they also have to buy the energy resource and thus depend critically on the resource price of energy resources, although due to their size they are in the position to influence that by their large demand. In selling terms they are the big sellers of electricity and due to their market position (and especially while being owners of the distribution network) can influence the price to some extent to their gusto. That this is not excessively abused, the German government has implemented a regulation agency controlling their market and price models. Due to the unavoidable switch to renewables due to the climate challenge they also invest meanwhile into very large photovoltaic plants, wind parks especially offshore, and hydroelectrics – again based on their business model of large-scale with a monotechnic approach. According to their financial power they act such that their market position, i.e. their monopolistic centrality is hardly touchable and thus that they can control the heart of the electricity sector in Germany. The dependencies this creates and the risk for society is retrospectively also one reason for the huge success of renewables with their decentral relative small-scale and thus democratic production.

leader in renewable energy facility production with ~350,000 employed people meanwhile, the resource, i.e. sun or wind, has not to be paid for, which leads to a big economic advantage. Due to the range of business models in principle everybody can be an electricity producer, which

The public city producers, which often have been owned by the cities or regions especially in the past have a very conventional portfolio consisting of coal or gas power plants, which are sized to serve the local or regional electricity and sometimes thermal, i.e. heating, energy needs. Historically they developed when electricity and heat was starting to be needed by major parts of society, i.e. between 1850 and 1950. The electricity is put into the electricity grid, which has often belonged also to the public city producers. The distribution network for the heat, which is a byproduct of the conventional electricity production, has also been build up by them, since this was relatively easy to implement concerning the technical and organizational efforts for a well thermally isolated pipeline system underground from production to consumers throughout a city. Electricity, nevertheless, is mainly traded at the European Energy Exchange and production depends on the national demand price, which depends again on the coal, oil, and gas trading prices, i.e. depends on a European/worldwide market price and thus is a major part of the production costs. The local city producers are also the major seller for their electricity. Meanwhile, many of them possess also renewable energy production capabilities (photovoltaic plants or wind parks, usually regional), besides the classic hydroelectric production facilities at lakes and rivers, which again has regulatory reasons. Since they are connected to the regional government and thus are controlled by the local inhabitants they are relatively much bound

means a democratization of electricity or renewable energy production within society.

into the regional development process as well and also impact the regional industry.

with their decentral relative small-scale and thus democratic production.

In contrast, the four large-scale producers of electricity in Germany – ENBW, EON, RWE, and Vattenfall, who are often termed the big "German Four" – are meanwhile world wide acting producers of mainly conventional coal, gas, oil, and also atomic electric power. Their plants have investment costs of billions and their regional placement depends besides the energy production process and consumption needs mostly on business and regulatory reasons. Thermal energy is only in some cases used locally for heating since the amount surpasses by far the local demand, thus the electricity, which is put to the electricity grid, is often internationally transported through the network to the consumer. The network for a long time mainly belonged also to them until recently, and had been bought from regional city producers over the years, thus the "German Four" controlled production and transport in a very monopolistic manner. Naturally, they also have to buy the energy resource and thus depend critically on the resource price of energy resources, although due to their size they are in the position to influence that by their large demand. In selling terms they are the big sellers of electricity and due to their market position (and especially while being owners of the distribution network) can influence the price to some extent to their gusto. That this is not excessively abused, the German government has implemented a regulation agency controlling their market and price models. Due to the unavoidable switch to renewables due to the climate challenge they also invest meanwhile into very large photovoltaic plants, wind parks especially offshore, and hydroelectrics – again based on their business model of large-scale with a monotechnic approach. According to their financial power they act such that their market position, i.e. their monopolistic centrality is hardly touchable and thus that they can control the heart of the electricity sector in Germany. The dependencies this creates and the risk for society is retrospectively also one reason for the huge success of renewables

Fig. 1. Abstraction and detailed structure of the German electricity sector, showing three pillars and the four levels of infrastructures involved from production to usage. The three pillars are characterized by: i) individual/public "private" producers, ii) government/public city/regional producers, and the very few industrial privately owned international companies. All share four levels of infrastructure from production to usage: i) users, ii) seller organizations, iii) the semi-private, i.e. public-private network organizations, and iv) individual producers. The three pillars are already characterized by their means of energy production: i) renewable and small scale, ii) regional and medium sized, and iii) classic large scale fossil and atomic. Whereas the first can be characterized by pluristic, polytechnic local/decentral means, the last is characterized by monopolistic, monotechnic, and central terms. Although, the details may vary, the structure leads to similar challenges on the micro and macro level, which can be understood by the *Human Ecology* rectangle

Generalizing, the renewables obviously belong to the class of individual/public distributed producers with a pluristic, polytechnic and local/decentral approach, whereas the "German Four" large scale producers are clearly industrial/private with a monopolistic, monotechnic, and central attitude. The German government/public city producers are a mixture of both: government and public, not too pluristic, polytechnic, and local/decentral and neither industrial/private, nor monopolistic, monotechnic, and central. Consequently, this shows already the similar property and power structures in the energy and IT sectors. Especially the "German Four" show the similarity to the newest development concerning IT resources, i.e. clouds, with the same monopolistic structures etc. and blocking effects on development. The analysis of these and other such many an infrastructure shows that four levels of organization are involved also in energy producing and distributing organizations: i) users,

Sustained Renewability: Approached by Systems Theory and Human Ecology 29

Therefore, the ECG is also connected to other grid and cloud infrastructures and respective European initiatives as e.g. the German MediGRID/D-Grid initiative, the European EGEE

MediGRID (Krefting, 2008; Sax, 2007, 2008) and its services branch Services@MediGRID operate the national German biomedical research and care grid and is one of ~20 community grids of the German nation wide D-Grid initiative. The resources are cluster computers, which are located and maintained at local universities. Their size varies from ~16 CPUs with 2 or 4 computing cores each (i.e. 32-64 cores) to 2048 CPUs with 4 cores (i.e. 8192 cores). These resources run different middlewares and can be accessed by the users via a central access portal or a central access to the resources directly (Fig. 2). Here again the userfriendliness is of major importance to gain a broad group of especially noncomputing experts. Special security protocols allow data transfer between the clusters under high-security medical conditions. Thus, the German MediGRID is said to be one of the most advanced health grids in the world combining data storage, computing power and sharing of applications in an entire nation. To serve the aims of research, education, and diagnostics in the biomedical research and care sectors MediGRID is organized in different modules, which are distributed via different institutions throughout Germany and thus form a more or less decentral organization. Nevertheless, special services, business modules and strategies were developed within the Services@MediGRID project allowing the grouping into different service classes and thus to apply different business and accounting models to distribute and organize appropriate the usage of the grid most efficiently. This also includes the possibility for billing and thus in principle commercial usage. Since MediGRID is located in the national research arena the latter is currently mostly valuable for accounting within the research community to balance and monitor the

The Amazon EC2 cloud favours now an even more concentrated production facility since it exists of a few data centres around the world with massive cluster computing capacity of hundred thousands of computing cores at one centre. The centres are localized according to environmental and business aspects, i.e. that cheap energy supply for cooling, operation, and local subsidies are the main location factor despite a high capacity connection to the rest of the internet. The administration is done centrally in each facility, with different operating systems available and generic portals for user access. The centres are shielded entities and guaranty maximum security despite the country and legal setting they are in. Due to the size, users have access to a free scaling system, for which they are billed per computing hour on different accounting and business models. Amazon also helps to develop together with users their solution of interest, however, focuses mostly on providing pure hardware, the

Obviously, the ECG belongs to the class of individual/public desktop grids with a pluristic, polytechnic and local/decentral approach, whereas the Amazon EC2 cloud is clearly industrial/private with a monopolistic, monotechnic, and central attitude. The German MediGRID and thus D-GRID is a mixture of both: government and public, not too pluristic, polytechnic, and local/decentral and neither industrial/private, nor monopolistic, monotechnic, and central. Consequently, this shows similar property and power structures as in the energy sectors including the current phenomenon to set up overcome giant monopolistic structures in the new cloud infrastructures, which are blocking fast development towards new more efficient opportunities. Thus, generically

and EDGES infrastructures and several other local resources.

money flow within German research.

operating system and the access to the resource.

ii) organizing broker organizations, iii) provider organizations, and iv) individual providers. In a more abstract form this shows that actually there are i) individuals and ii) societies of individuals, which are both involved on each of the four levels of organization, with a different degree of influence. Consequently, there is a micro level from which a macro level emerges, having again an influence on the micro level, i.e. that both levels are connected in a complex and cyclical manner as in any evolutionary evolving system. Thus, the micro level is constituted by an invironment and the macro level creates an environment. This will later constitute already the *Human Ecology* rectangle.

## **4. Generic organization of grid and cloud IT infrastructures**

Obviously, there are also huge resources available in the IT sector – similar as in the renewable energy sector, although there is – at the same time – a shortage of resources as constantly claimed by users and providers. Consequently, this paradoxical situation must have again a reason and especially for the IT sector where the opportunities for technical solutions with fast turnover rates of 3-5 years for full technology replacement cycles are large compared to the ~30-50 years in the energy sector. Grid and cloud infrastructures are one solution to ease the resource shortage by more efficient usage of available resources and are based on dedicated organizations, which handle the technical as well as management challenges involved. They also posses the same fundamental organization principles and can be classified by the same characterization as already the energy sector: i) ownership and control, ii) size of grid/cloud, iii) diversity and distribution, iv) technological broadness, and v) spatial distribution. Thus, it is very interesting to see that despite the much higher turnover rates and the innovative potential of the IT sector in principle the same challenges exist as in the energy sector. Therefore, now two grid and one cloud infrastructure will be investigated in greater detail to show the similarities:

The Erasmus Computing Grid (ECG) is one of the largest desktop grids for the biomedical research and care sectors worldwide (de Zeeuw et al., 2007; Fig. 2). The computing cycles of the desktop computers of the Erasmus Medical Centre and the Hogeschool Rotterdam (the local University for Applied Sciences) are donated to the ECG. Technically, these cycles are exploited by the middleware CONDOR and a newly developed management system, which administrates on the one side all the computers in the grid as well as the users and on the other hand posses an easy accessible back-end/front-end system for usage. The latter is especially important for efficient use and security: The users only need to deliver their application, which then is implemented in a work flow scenario, thus the users for production only need to upload via a portal their new data and parameters for the analysis. The users are informed about status and final plausibility result checks. The rest is shielded for security reasons. Currently, the ECG has a capacity of ~15 Tera FLOPS already available for user applications (total existing capacity: ~20,000 desktop PCs, ~30,000 computing cores, ~50 Tera FLOPS). This corresponds to a ~30 M€ investment. In absolute terms this is also one of the largest dedicated computer resources world wide available to users via a central entry port managed by the Erasmus Computing Grid Office (ECGO). The ECGO is the secretariat in front of the technical infrastructure, supporting users, technical maintainers of the desktops, and serves as the development hub for grid as well as special user wishes. The aim of the ECG is to serve the areas of research, education, and diagnostics according to the mission of the donating public organizations. Beyond, the aim is to develop the ECG as a general broker organization for computing resources also for industry and other sectors.

ii) organizing broker organizations, iii) provider organizations, and iv) individual providers. In a more abstract form this shows that actually there are i) individuals and ii) societies of individuals, which are both involved on each of the four levels of organization, with a different degree of influence. Consequently, there is a micro level from which a macro level emerges, having again an influence on the micro level, i.e. that both levels are connected in a complex and cyclical manner as in any evolutionary evolving system. Thus, the micro level is constituted by an invironment and the macro level creates an environment. This will later

Obviously, there are also huge resources available in the IT sector – similar as in the renewable energy sector, although there is – at the same time – a shortage of resources as constantly claimed by users and providers. Consequently, this paradoxical situation must have again a reason and especially for the IT sector where the opportunities for technical solutions with fast turnover rates of 3-5 years for full technology replacement cycles are large compared to the ~30-50 years in the energy sector. Grid and cloud infrastructures are one solution to ease the resource shortage by more efficient usage of available resources and are based on dedicated organizations, which handle the technical as well as management challenges involved. They also posses the same fundamental organization principles and can be classified by the same characterization as already the energy sector: i) ownership and control, ii) size of grid/cloud, iii) diversity and distribution, iv) technological broadness, and v) spatial distribution. Thus, it is very interesting to see that despite the much higher turnover rates and the innovative potential of the IT sector in principle the same challenges exist as in the energy sector. Therefore, now two grid and one cloud infrastructure will be

The Erasmus Computing Grid (ECG) is one of the largest desktop grids for the biomedical research and care sectors worldwide (de Zeeuw et al., 2007; Fig. 2). The computing cycles of the desktop computers of the Erasmus Medical Centre and the Hogeschool Rotterdam (the local University for Applied Sciences) are donated to the ECG. Technically, these cycles are exploited by the middleware CONDOR and a newly developed management system, which administrates on the one side all the computers in the grid as well as the users and on the other hand posses an easy accessible back-end/front-end system for usage. The latter is especially important for efficient use and security: The users only need to deliver their application, which then is implemented in a work flow scenario, thus the users for production only need to upload via a portal their new data and parameters for the analysis. The users are informed about status and final plausibility result checks. The rest is shielded for security reasons. Currently, the ECG has a capacity of ~15 Tera FLOPS already available for user applications (total existing capacity: ~20,000 desktop PCs, ~30,000 computing cores, ~50 Tera FLOPS). This corresponds to a ~30 M€ investment. In absolute terms this is also one of the largest dedicated computer resources world wide available to users via a central entry port managed by the Erasmus Computing Grid Office (ECGO). The ECGO is the secretariat in front of the technical infrastructure, supporting users, technical maintainers of the desktops, and serves as the development hub for grid as well as special user wishes. The aim of the ECG is to serve the areas of research, education, and diagnostics according to the mission of the donating public organizations. Beyond, the aim is to develop the ECG as a general broker organization for computing resources also for industry and other sectors.

constitute already the *Human Ecology* rectangle.

investigated in greater detail to show the similarities:

**4. Generic organization of grid and cloud IT infrastructures** 

Therefore, the ECG is also connected to other grid and cloud infrastructures and respective European initiatives as e.g. the German MediGRID/D-Grid initiative, the European EGEE and EDGES infrastructures and several other local resources.

MediGRID (Krefting, 2008; Sax, 2007, 2008) and its services branch Services@MediGRID operate the national German biomedical research and care grid and is one of ~20 community grids of the German nation wide D-Grid initiative. The resources are cluster computers, which are located and maintained at local universities. Their size varies from ~16 CPUs with 2 or 4 computing cores each (i.e. 32-64 cores) to 2048 CPUs with 4 cores (i.e. 8192 cores). These resources run different middlewares and can be accessed by the users via a central access portal or a central access to the resources directly (Fig. 2). Here again the userfriendliness is of major importance to gain a broad group of especially noncomputing experts. Special security protocols allow data transfer between the clusters under high-security medical conditions. Thus, the German MediGRID is said to be one of the most advanced health grids in the world combining data storage, computing power and sharing of applications in an entire nation. To serve the aims of research, education, and diagnostics in the biomedical research and care sectors MediGRID is organized in different modules, which are distributed via different institutions throughout Germany and thus form a more or less decentral organization. Nevertheless, special services, business modules and strategies were developed within the Services@MediGRID project allowing the grouping into different service classes and thus to apply different business and accounting models to distribute and organize appropriate the usage of the grid most efficiently. This also includes the possibility for billing and thus in principle commercial usage. Since MediGRID is located in the national research arena the latter is currently mostly valuable for accounting within the research community to balance and monitor the money flow within German research.

The Amazon EC2 cloud favours now an even more concentrated production facility since it exists of a few data centres around the world with massive cluster computing capacity of hundred thousands of computing cores at one centre. The centres are localized according to environmental and business aspects, i.e. that cheap energy supply for cooling, operation, and local subsidies are the main location factor despite a high capacity connection to the rest of the internet. The administration is done centrally in each facility, with different operating systems available and generic portals for user access. The centres are shielded entities and guaranty maximum security despite the country and legal setting they are in. Due to the size, users have access to a free scaling system, for which they are billed per computing hour on different accounting and business models. Amazon also helps to develop together with users their solution of interest, however, focuses mostly on providing pure hardware, the operating system and the access to the resource.

Obviously, the ECG belongs to the class of individual/public desktop grids with a pluristic, polytechnic and local/decentral approach, whereas the Amazon EC2 cloud is clearly industrial/private with a monopolistic, monotechnic, and central attitude. The German MediGRID and thus D-GRID is a mixture of both: government and public, not too pluristic, polytechnic, and local/decentral and neither industrial/private, nor monopolistic, monotechnic, and central. Consequently, this shows similar property and power structures as in the energy sectors including the current phenomenon to set up overcome giant monopolistic structures in the new cloud infrastructures, which are blocking fast development towards new more efficient opportunities. Thus, generically

Sustained Renewability: Approached by Systems Theory and Human Ecology 31

Primary energy or IT resource exploitation in reality involves a complex chain of events already on a technical level from the resource to usage, and involves e.g. resource i) acquisition, ii) basic exploitation, iii) storage and provision, iv) transformation to usable form, and v) transport to or access from users. Consequently, for a highly efficient exploitation of this chain, i.e. reaching a high efficiency from the primary resource to the end usage and thereby minimizing both the recyclable and unrecyclable losses, these five steps have to be optimized in a systemic manner to guaranty a careful exploitation of the primary resource. Optimization means here that not only the different steps are optimized within themselves but beyond, that the overall efficiency of the chain is optimized, since the optimum in on step of the chain might as a side effect reduce even the level of efficiency in another step or the rest of the chain far below the optima of these single steps and thus reduce the overall efficiency of the entire exploitation chain. Thus, the exploitation chain is

It is obvious that usually the chain is seen mostly from each end, i.e. that the perception of the exploitation chain is either i) resource oriented or ii) usage oriented: i) it is easy to look only on the energy or IT resource and then think about its exploitation without looking at the usage, and ii) it is equally easy to take only the perspective of the usage and user and neglect the meaning for the primary resource exploitation. The first perspective is often taken e.g. in fossil energy business models where power plants have at the beginning been built near the coalmines. Equally, big hydroelectric dams can only been built locally whether there is a usage at hand or not. Often then potential users take the opportunity to move to that location. The second perspective, however, is often taken due to the low transport costs of fossil resources, i.e. coal is just transported around the world to the user. In contrast, renewable energy or grid IT approaches try to combine both perspectives: here first the two questions are asked at the same time: i) what demand exist locally, and ii) what resources are available locally? If availability and demand cannot be brought in agreement locally then the radius can be broadened from local to regional and so forth. In either case then the details of the different steps have to be questioned and the best mix of resources – if there are different ones – has to be considered, thus the whole exploitation chain can be optimized. This is, of course, a dynamic process, i.e. the optimized exploitation chain will most likely vary over time, i.e. that the time factor of a technology replacement or entire new introduction has also to be considered. In the case of renewables this involves less the primary resource, which is one of the biggest advantages of renewables and leads already to a sustained availability of the primary resource, which nevertheless is only one chain part. The complex exploitation chain is, however, still a too simple rationalization, since the chain from the resource to usage involves on each of the five described technical levels again other chains of events, which need again various resources i) energy, ii) information, and iii) materials. Thus, respectively, the exploitation chain itself needs to exploit energy, information and material resources to exploit the resource of interest, as e.g. energy or IT resources. Consequently, this means that the exploitation chain is in reality a complex network of exploitation chains based on the availability of the same and other resources. And on these secondary levels again exploitation sub-chains exist and so forth and so forth… Thus, an exploitation network makes naturally the situation tremendously more complex then just a complex exploitation chain, not only because there are even more

**5. Tragedy of the systemic complexity and the solution for a systemic** 

already a complex system, where different parts influence all other parts.

**sustained resource exploitation** 

Fig. 2. Abstraction and detailed structure of the Erasmus Computing Grid, the German MediGRID, and the well known Amazon EC2 cloud. The three pillars are characterized by i) individual/public "private" grids, ii) government/public grids and iii) the very few industrial privately owned international clouds. Again all show the four levels involved in grid infrastructures: i) users, ii) organizing broker organizations, iii) donor organizations, and iv) individual donors. Again the three pillars are characterized by their means of capacity: i) small scale desktop and small mainframes, ii) regional and medium sized clusters, and iii) classic large scale cloud centres. And again whereas the first can be characterized by pluristic, polytechnic local/decentral means, the last is characterized by monopolistic, monotechnic and central terms. Although, the details may vary the structure leads to similar changes on the micro and macro level, which can be understood by the *Human Ecology* rectangle.

again four levels of organization are involved also in grid organizations: i) users, ii) organizing broker organizations, iii) donor organizations, and iv) individual donors. In a more abstract form this shows again that actually there are i) individuals and ii) societies of individuals, which are both involved on each of the organization levels, with a different degree of influence. Consequently, there is again a micro level from which a macro level emerges, with influence on the micro level, i.e. that both levels are connected in a complex and cyclical manner as in any evolutionary evolving system. Thus, the micro level is constituted by an invironment and the macro level creates an environment. This we will later see constitutes already again the *Human Ecology* rectangle as in the case of the energy sector.

30 BioMedical User Groups

Cluster/Grid Grid Government/Public

**German MediGRID Amazon Cloud**

*Organizing Broker Organization*

Users

Thousands Worldwide User Groups

Amazon Cloud Industrial/Private

*Worldwide Distributed Offices*

~Few Distributed Centers ~Millions Secured

> Monopolistic Monotechnic Central

*~ Amazon EC2*

*Provider Organization*

Individual Provider

*Nationwide Distributed Office*

*~ D-Grid Donor Organizations*

~10.000 Cluster Nodes ~5.000 Medically Secur ed

Ballanced Mixture

Fig. 2. Abstraction and detailed structure of the Erasmus Computing Grid, the German MediGRID, and the well known Amazon EC2 cloud. The three pillars are characterized by i)

again four levels of organization are involved also in grid organizations: i) users, ii) organizing broker organizations, iii) donor organizations, and iv) individual donors. In a more abstract form this shows again that actually there are i) individuals and ii) societies of individuals, which are both involved on each of the organization levels, with a different degree of influence. Consequently, there is again a micro level from which a macro level emerges, with influence on the micro level, i.e. that both levels are connected in a complex and cyclical manner as in any evolutionary evolving system. Thus, the micro level is constituted by an invironment and the macro level creates an environment. This we will later see constitutes already again the *Human Ecology* rectangle as in the case of the energy

individual/public "private" grids, ii) government/public grids and iii) the very few industrial privately owned international clouds. Again all show the four levels involved in grid infrastructures: i) users, ii) organizing broker organizations, iii) donor organizations, and iv) individual donors. Again the three pillars are characterized by their means of capacity: i) small scale desktop and small mainframes, ii) regional and medium sized clusters, and iii) classic large scale cloud centres. And again whereas the first can be characterized by pluristic, polytechnic local/decentral means, the last is characterized by monopolistic, monotechnic and central terms. Although, the details may vary the structure leads to similar changes on the micro and macro level, which can be understood by the

*Organizing Broker Organization*

Users

10 BioMedical User Groups

**Erasmus Computing Grid**

Desktop Grid Individual/Public

*ECG Centralized Office*

*Two Donor Organizations*

~15.000 PC Owners i.e. Local PC Owners

*Human Ecology* rectangle.

sector.

Pluristic Polytechnic Local/Decentral *Donor Organization*

Individual Donor

## **5. Tragedy of the systemic complexity and the solution for a systemic sustained resource exploitation**

Primary energy or IT resource exploitation in reality involves a complex chain of events already on a technical level from the resource to usage, and involves e.g. resource i) acquisition, ii) basic exploitation, iii) storage and provision, iv) transformation to usable form, and v) transport to or access from users. Consequently, for a highly efficient exploitation of this chain, i.e. reaching a high efficiency from the primary resource to the end usage and thereby minimizing both the recyclable and unrecyclable losses, these five steps have to be optimized in a systemic manner to guaranty a careful exploitation of the primary resource. Optimization means here that not only the different steps are optimized within themselves but beyond, that the overall efficiency of the chain is optimized, since the optimum in on step of the chain might as a side effect reduce even the level of efficiency in another step or the rest of the chain far below the optima of these single steps and thus reduce the overall efficiency of the entire exploitation chain. Thus, the exploitation chain is already a complex system, where different parts influence all other parts.

It is obvious that usually the chain is seen mostly from each end, i.e. that the perception of the exploitation chain is either i) resource oriented or ii) usage oriented: i) it is easy to look only on the energy or IT resource and then think about its exploitation without looking at the usage, and ii) it is equally easy to take only the perspective of the usage and user and neglect the meaning for the primary resource exploitation. The first perspective is often taken e.g. in fossil energy business models where power plants have at the beginning been built near the coalmines. Equally, big hydroelectric dams can only been built locally whether there is a usage at hand or not. Often then potential users take the opportunity to move to that location. The second perspective, however, is often taken due to the low transport costs of fossil resources, i.e. coal is just transported around the world to the user. In contrast, renewable energy or grid IT approaches try to combine both perspectives: here first the two questions are asked at the same time: i) what demand exist locally, and ii) what resources are available locally? If availability and demand cannot be brought in agreement locally then the radius can be broadened from local to regional and so forth. In either case then the details of the different steps have to be questioned and the best mix of resources – if there are different ones – has to be considered, thus the whole exploitation chain can be optimized. This is, of course, a dynamic process, i.e. the optimized exploitation chain will most likely vary over time, i.e. that the time factor of a technology replacement or entire new introduction has also to be considered. In the case of renewables this involves less the primary resource, which is one of the biggest advantages of renewables and leads already to a sustained availability of the primary resource, which nevertheless is only one chain part.

The complex exploitation chain is, however, still a too simple rationalization, since the chain from the resource to usage involves on each of the five described technical levels again other chains of events, which need again various resources i) energy, ii) information, and iii) materials. Thus, respectively, the exploitation chain itself needs to exploit energy, information and material resources to exploit the resource of interest, as e.g. energy or IT resources. Consequently, this means that the exploitation chain is in reality a complex network of exploitation chains based on the availability of the same and other resources. And on these secondary levels again exploitation sub-chains exist and so forth and so forth… Thus, an exploitation network makes naturally the situation tremendously more complex then just a complex exploitation chain, not only because there are even more

Sustained Renewability: Approached by Systems Theory and Human Ecology 33

This now has huge consequences for the implementation of a highly systemic exploitation network by individuals and society, since now all individual components have to be optimized themselves with respect to all other components and the complete complex hyper systemic exploitation network. Therefore, the classic reductionistic approach is unavoidable as long as it finally ends in a holistically reintegrated systemic result. Consequently, for a highly efficient energy and IT resource exploitation this is the vital core to *Sustained Renewability*, since only then also primary renewable resources are not compromised by the limits in the complex resource and exploitation network and since only then enough resources will on human time scales always be available to exploit this primary resource and thus sustain its exploitation and usage for again on human time scales indefinite time. Thus,

the technical level requires a holistic systemic approach for *Sustained Renewability*.

the IT sector with its great opportunities and fast turnover rates, paradoxical.

The analysis of energy and grid organizations showed already generically that there is a micro level from which a macro level emerges. Actually, the organizational chain suggests that this is true for every resource exploitation network and thus is its fundamental cultural root, especially if the resources, which are to be exploited, are part of the commons as the renewable energy (i.e. in the climate change dilemma) or IT resources (i.e. the dilemma of e.g. to little information transforming capacities) in principle are. Both this micro and macro level now wraps the technical exploitation into the dialectics from invironment to environment. In the case of over-exploitation of common resources, the exactly same

**sectors** 

**6. The inverse tragedy of the commons in the renewable energy and grid IT** 

Analysing both the energy and IT resources, their means of exploitation and usage scenarios in a systemic manner, clearly shows beyond a pure estimate of scale, that obviously there are affluent resources and also solutions for their efficient exploitation available. The *Tragedy of the Systemic Complexity* thereby shows that already the pure technical means in the entire chain from the resource to usage has to be taken special care of, since otherwise the loses are far too big, i.e. the efficiency is far too low. E.g. considering overall efficiencies below 1% would mean that a system of resources would be 100 times faster depleted than in the, of course, impossible case of 100% efficiency. Again it should be stressed that this must include beyond the basic energy or IT resource themselves, their entire exploitation chain and thus the resources needed for this exploitation as well. Renewables and grid are means of doing that in a very sophisticated manner at least to a larger extent then the classic large-scale power plants, computing centres, or cloud infrastructures. Thus, the fundamental basis for *Sustained Renewability* means solving the technical systemic complexity in a productive manner, i.e. the technical chain from the resource to usage must be exploited in a systemic manner already on the pure technical level. Without such a systemic approach for resource exploitation, no *Sustained Renewability* can be reached. Thus also all the limits have to be considered in the entire exploitation network, since even if there is a huge resource their might be a tiny but nevertheless bottleneck within a resource network as e.g. a rare metal or substance which is crucially needed somewhere in a corner of the exploitation network. Nevertheless, exploiting the renewable energy or IT resources in a systemic approach purely technical, i.e. by integrated holistic ecology like systems e.g. by using the renewable resource or sharing the available IT infrastructure, seems hard since both renewable energy and grid infrastructures slowly emerge, which is due to their importance and especially in

components to be considered, but mostly because the number of non-linear interactions of these components are even higher, more complex, and more dependent on each other. Especially the recursive dependence on the primary exploitation chain by the secondary, i.e. that also the secondary exploitation chains nested on each of the primary exploitation chain levels, need e.g. energy or IT resources to be able to function, is here of major importance in terms of complexity increase. The influence is now not only non-linear but also adds many an exponential interaction, which can in- or decrease the importance of a small tiny factor somewhere in the exploitation network enormously.

Beyond, an exploitation network connected to a specific e.g. energy or IT resource now involves many other resources, which have as well their limits and renewability aspects. Especially, material resources play here a fundamental role as – additional to energy and information resources – e.g. steel for the primary resource exploitation within machines and transport systems, rare metals for the transformation as e.g. metal catalysts or the dotation of the silicium in photovoltaic cells as well as copper for energy or information transmission or lithium for high capacity storage energy, to name only a few. Consequently, the whole resource and exploitation sector already on the technical level is a multi-recursive network of resources and their exploitations, where finally the single small component, its resources status, and renewability, might be as important as the major resource to be exploited. Nevertheless, there is a caveat in this on first sight depressing and seemingly unsolvable complexity. There is a natural hierarchy of the importance of and the amount of resources: If a resource is renewable or at least highly recyclable then these limits are tameable as well as in the case of resource replacement. Whereas for a fundamental resource like energy or information this can be tremendously difficult, for the materialistic part in exploitation networks that might in most cases be possible due to the fact that with the building box nature provides us in the many physical elements and thus the chemical products one can make thereof. So it is possible nowadays to replace steel by carbon fibre, i.e. heavy industry products by light chemical materials. The same holds for many components, although all follow again the resource limit, exploitation network, and renewable or recycling generic challenges as already discussed.

Consequently, for a highly efficient exploitation of such a complex systemic network, i.e. reaching a high efficiency from the primary resource to usage, all single steps have to be optimized in a systemic manner to guaranty a careful exploitation of the primary and all other involved resources. Actually the exploitation network becomes now also a general resource network. Thus, optimization means here that not only the different steps are optimized within themselves but beyond, that the overall efficiency of the entire network is optimized, since the optimum in one step might as a side effect reduce even the level of efficiency in another step or the rest of the network far below optima of these single steps and thus reduce the overall efficiency of the entire resource and exploitation network. Thus, the resource and exploitation network is already a hyper complex system, where different parts influence all other parts, which creates in principle what can be termed the *Tragedy of Systemic Complexity*:

#### *The Tragedy of the Systemic Complexity:*

*Resource exploitation is a complex systemic network with a huge number of technical components and beyond huge exponential non-linear interactions between these components, thus highest efficiency can only be achieved by a systemic optimization with contradictions appearing on the level of single components leading to huge individual and social paradoxical challenges of perceptions and understandings.* 

components to be considered, but mostly because the number of non-linear interactions of these components are even higher, more complex, and more dependent on each other. Especially the recursive dependence on the primary exploitation chain by the secondary, i.e. that also the secondary exploitation chains nested on each of the primary exploitation chain levels, need e.g. energy or IT resources to be able to function, is here of major importance in terms of complexity increase. The influence is now not only non-linear but also adds many an exponential interaction, which can in- or decrease the importance of a small tiny factor

Beyond, an exploitation network connected to a specific e.g. energy or IT resource now involves many other resources, which have as well their limits and renewability aspects. Especially, material resources play here a fundamental role as – additional to energy and information resources – e.g. steel for the primary resource exploitation within machines and transport systems, rare metals for the transformation as e.g. metal catalysts or the dotation of the silicium in photovoltaic cells as well as copper for energy or information transmission or lithium for high capacity storage energy, to name only a few. Consequently, the whole resource and exploitation sector already on the technical level is a multi-recursive network of resources and their exploitations, where finally the single small component, its resources status, and renewability, might be as important as the major resource to be exploited. Nevertheless, there is a caveat in this on first sight depressing and seemingly unsolvable complexity. There is a natural hierarchy of the importance of and the amount of resources: If a resource is renewable or at least highly recyclable then these limits are tameable as well as in the case of resource replacement. Whereas for a fundamental resource like energy or information this can be tremendously difficult, for the materialistic part in exploitation networks that might in most cases be possible due to the fact that with the building box nature provides us in the many physical elements and thus the chemical products one can make thereof. So it is possible nowadays to replace steel by carbon fibre, i.e. heavy industry products by light chemical materials. The same holds for many components, although all follow again the resource limit, exploitation network, and renewable or recycling generic challenges as already discussed. Consequently, for a highly efficient exploitation of such a complex systemic network, i.e. reaching a high efficiency from the primary resource to usage, all single steps have to be optimized in a systemic manner to guaranty a careful exploitation of the primary and all other involved resources. Actually the exploitation network becomes now also a general resource network. Thus, optimization means here that not only the different steps are optimized within themselves but beyond, that the overall efficiency of the entire network is optimized, since the optimum in one step might as a side effect reduce even the level of efficiency in another step or the rest of the network far below optima of these single steps and thus reduce the overall efficiency of the entire resource and exploitation network. Thus, the resource and exploitation network is already a hyper complex system, where different parts influence all other parts, which creates in principle what can be termed the *Tragedy of* 

*The Tragedy of the Systemic Complexity: Resource exploitation is a complex systemic network with a huge number of technical components and beyond huge exponential non-linear interactions between these components, thus highest efficiency can only be achieved by a systemic optimization with contradictions appearing on the level of single components leading to huge individual and social paradoxical challenges of perceptions and understandings.* 

somewhere in the exploitation network enormously.

*Systemic Complexity*:

This now has huge consequences for the implementation of a highly systemic exploitation network by individuals and society, since now all individual components have to be optimized themselves with respect to all other components and the complete complex hyper systemic exploitation network. Therefore, the classic reductionistic approach is unavoidable as long as it finally ends in a holistically reintegrated systemic result. Consequently, for a highly efficient energy and IT resource exploitation this is the vital core to *Sustained Renewability*, since only then also primary renewable resources are not compromised by the limits in the complex resource and exploitation network and since only then enough resources will on human time scales always be available to exploit this primary resource and thus sustain its exploitation and usage for again on human time scales indefinite time. Thus, the technical level requires a holistic systemic approach for *Sustained Renewability*.

### **6. The inverse tragedy of the commons in the renewable energy and grid IT sectors**

Analysing both the energy and IT resources, their means of exploitation and usage scenarios in a systemic manner, clearly shows beyond a pure estimate of scale, that obviously there are affluent resources and also solutions for their efficient exploitation available. The *Tragedy of the Systemic Complexity* thereby shows that already the pure technical means in the entire chain from the resource to usage has to be taken special care of, since otherwise the loses are far too big, i.e. the efficiency is far too low. E.g. considering overall efficiencies below 1% would mean that a system of resources would be 100 times faster depleted than in the, of course, impossible case of 100% efficiency. Again it should be stressed that this must include beyond the basic energy or IT resource themselves, their entire exploitation chain and thus the resources needed for this exploitation as well. Renewables and grid are means of doing that in a very sophisticated manner at least to a larger extent then the classic large-scale power plants, computing centres, or cloud infrastructures. Thus, the fundamental basis for *Sustained Renewability* means solving the technical systemic complexity in a productive manner, i.e. the technical chain from the resource to usage must be exploited in a systemic manner already on the pure technical level. Without such a systemic approach for resource exploitation, no *Sustained Renewability* can be reached. Thus also all the limits have to be considered in the entire exploitation network, since even if there is a huge resource their might be a tiny but nevertheless bottleneck within a resource network as e.g. a rare metal or substance which is crucially needed somewhere in a corner of the exploitation network. Nevertheless, exploiting the renewable energy or IT resources in a systemic approach purely technical, i.e. by integrated holistic ecology like systems e.g. by using the renewable resource or sharing the available IT infrastructure, seems hard since both renewable energy and grid infrastructures slowly emerge, which is due to their importance and especially in the IT sector with its great opportunities and fast turnover rates, paradoxical.

The analysis of energy and grid organizations showed already generically that there is a micro level from which a macro level emerges. Actually, the organizational chain suggests that this is true for every resource exploitation network and thus is its fundamental cultural root, especially if the resources, which are to be exploited, are part of the commons as the renewable energy (i.e. in the climate change dilemma) or IT resources (i.e. the dilemma of e.g. to little information transforming capacities) in principle are. Both this micro and macro level now wraps the technical exploitation into the dialectics from invironment to environment. In the case of over-exploitation of common resources, the exactly same

Sustained Renewability: Approached by Systems Theory and Human Ecology 35

*Inverse Tragedy of the Commons*

*hedonists cool calculating tragic hopeless*

*Under - Exploitation*

**Systemic**

**Development**

*Under-Used Potentials*

*General Basis matter energy information biological psychological societal*

as the technical core.

*Over-Used Resources*

*Concrete Objects materials reservoirs memes organisms behaviours cultures*

*Over-Exploitation*

*indifferent hedonists careless players chronic overstrained*

*Classic Tragedy of the Commons*

Fig. 3. Generalization of the *Inverse Tragedy of the Commons*: the *Classic* and *Inverse Tragedy of the Commons* are directly complementary to each other and can on the deep psychology level be associated with complementary pears of archetypical behavioural traits. This is in line with the complementary under-used potentials and over-used resources, which emerge from the potentials by freezing of potentials into concrete objects with corresponding limits. Both correspond to the general basis and concrete objects. Whereas the *Classic Tragedy of the Commons* corresponds to i) indifferent hedonists, ii) careless players, and iii) the chronic overstrained, the *Inverse Tragedy of the Commons* corresponds to i) hedonists, ii) the cool calculating, and iii) the tragic hopeless. All cluster around a systemic technical development

of a solution for the *Tragedy of Systemic Complexity*). Thus, the system of i) technical system, ii) micro level, and iii) macro level has now to be investigated as a system in a holistic systemic manner itself. Therefore, pinpointing the phenomenon of under exploited potentials to the same phenomenological root as the well known phenomenon of over exploited resources opens now the complete opportunities and tool set to examine the challenge of introducing a *Sustained Renewability* approach into practice (as e.g. in the renewable energy or grid IT sectors) as well as its principle day-to-day management. Thus, practical implications can be derived from an analysis of the micro and macro levels, which then have to be embedded in a systemic manner and approached on a theoretic level. Appliance of this concept with practical guidelines, the implementation of *Sustained Renewability* practically, can be realized in principle for every resource management sector.

complex interplay between the individual and the society as well as the invironment and the environment appears. This his is well known as the so called *Classic Tragedy of the Commons* (Hardin, 1968, 1994, 1998; Ostrom, 1990; IASC; Commons), in which (multiple) independently acting individuals due to their own self-interest can ultimately destroy a shared limited resource even though it is clear that it is not in the long term interest of the local community and society as a whole. The phenomenon in principle is nothing new and appears already in ancient myth and religions, since it concerns the basis of life, i.e. the usage of resources in general and in particular that of energy and food. The violation of the carrying capacity, the theft of resources connected with the decline or death of those who lose their resource basis, and the squandering of resources are deeply integrated in all cultures reaching the level of archetypical traits. E.g. the Irish measure for the size of a piece of land in *callop*'s describes the size in terms of the carrying capacity for different animals: the same sized piece of land, i.e. e.g. one callop might be 10 cows, 12 horses, or 40 sheep. In the case of under exploited resources there seems to be the same phenomenology of the *Classic Tragedy of the Commons* challenge put forward. This phenomenon is now theoretically defined – as a logical consequence – as the *Inverse Tragedy of the Commons* (Fig. 3):

*The (Classic) Tragedy of the Commons: A resource belonging to all and being on limited demand is OVEREXPLOITED by the user due to responsibility diffusion!* 

*<=> TRANSFORMATION <=>* 

*:The INVERSE Tragedy of the Commons A resource belonging to all and being in affluent availability on limited demand is UNDEREXPLOITEDby potential users due to responsibility diffusion!* 

Interestingly, not only is responsibility diffusion the most likely and general reason for the appearance of both tragedies, but also the psychological description for both the micro and the macro level hits the same archetypical traits (Fig. 3) as mentioned above. Whereas the *Classic Tragedy of the Commons* corresponds to i) indifferent hedonists, ii) careless players, and iii) the chronic overstrained, the *Inverse Tragedy of the Commons* corresponds to i) hedonists, ii) the cool calculating, and iii) the tragic hopeless. The under-used potentials, i.e. the general basis (matter, energy, information, biological, psychological, and societal level) and over-used resources (materials, reservoirs, memes, organisms, behaviours, cultures), clearly show how from a virgin resource opportunity, concrete objects emerge with their attached limitation burden (Fig. 3). Nevertheless, they all cluster around a systemic technical development. Thus, the complex field created, describes exactly the tension found in resource limitation phenomena and evolutionary emergence.

Consequently, it becomes now also clear what constitutes the micro and macro levels: on the micro-social level the systemic and the open sharing attitude of the individual play the key roles, whereas on the macro-social level the organization culture of the embedding institutions and in the end society as a whole as well as its cultures are the central points. I.e. that beyond the technical implementation of an exploitation network in a systemic technical manner, but nevertheless still technically focused approach, the individual and society with their invironment and environment they consist of and create respectively, need to be considered as the crucial to be investigated fields to understand why still with even a systemic technical exploitation scheme with highest efficiencies existing, even the best solved *Tragedy of Systemic Complexity* is not implemented (not to speak of the development

complex interplay between the individual and the society as well as the invironment and the environment appears. This his is well known as the so called *Classic Tragedy of the Commons* (Hardin, 1968, 1994, 1998; Ostrom, 1990; IASC; Commons), in which (multiple) independently acting individuals due to their own self-interest can ultimately destroy a shared limited resource even though it is clear that it is not in the long term interest of the local community and society as a whole. The phenomenon in principle is nothing new and appears already in ancient myth and religions, since it concerns the basis of life, i.e. the usage of resources in general and in particular that of energy and food. The violation of the carrying capacity, the theft of resources connected with the decline or death of those who lose their resource basis, and the squandering of resources are deeply integrated in all cultures reaching the level of archetypical traits. E.g. the Irish measure for the size of a piece of land in *callop*'s describes the size in terms of the carrying capacity for different animals: the same sized piece of land, i.e. e.g. one callop might be 10 cows, 12 horses, or 40 sheep. In the case of under exploited resources there seems to be the same phenomenology of the *Classic Tragedy of the Commons* challenge put forward. This phenomenon is now theoretically

defined – as a logical consequence – as the *Inverse Tragedy of the Commons* (Fig. 3):

*<=> TRANSFORMATION <=>* 

Interestingly, not only is responsibility diffusion the most likely and general reason for the appearance of both tragedies, but also the psychological description for both the micro and the macro level hits the same archetypical traits (Fig. 3) as mentioned above. Whereas the *Classic Tragedy of the Commons* corresponds to i) indifferent hedonists, ii) careless players, and iii) the chronic overstrained, the *Inverse Tragedy of the Commons* corresponds to i) hedonists, ii) the cool calculating, and iii) the tragic hopeless. The under-used potentials, i.e. the general basis (matter, energy, information, biological, psychological, and societal level) and over-used resources (materials, reservoirs, memes, organisms, behaviours, cultures), clearly show how from a virgin resource opportunity, concrete objects emerge with their attached limitation burden (Fig. 3). Nevertheless, they all cluster around a systemic technical development. Thus, the complex field created, describes exactly the tension found in

Consequently, it becomes now also clear what constitutes the micro and macro levels: on the micro-social level the systemic and the open sharing attitude of the individual play the key roles, whereas on the macro-social level the organization culture of the embedding institutions and in the end society as a whole as well as its cultures are the central points. I.e. that beyond the technical implementation of an exploitation network in a systemic technical manner, but nevertheless still technically focused approach, the individual and society with their invironment and environment they consist of and create respectively, need to be considered as the crucial to be investigated fields to understand why still with even a systemic technical exploitation scheme with highest efficiencies existing, even the best solved *Tragedy of Systemic Complexity* is not implemented (not to speak of the development

*on limited demand is UNDEREXPLOITEDby potential users due to responsibility diffusion!* 

*:The INVERSE Tragedy of the Commons* 

*A resource belonging to all and being in affluent availability* 

*The (Classic) Tragedy of the Commons:* 

*A resource belonging to all and being on limited demand is OVEREXPLOITED by the user due to responsibility diffusion!* 

resource limitation phenomena and evolutionary emergence.

*Classic Tragedy of the Commons*

Fig. 3. Generalization of the *Inverse Tragedy of the Commons*: the *Classic* and *Inverse Tragedy of the Commons* are directly complementary to each other and can on the deep psychology level be associated with complementary pears of archetypical behavioural traits. This is in line with the complementary under-used potentials and over-used resources, which emerge from the potentials by freezing of potentials into concrete objects with corresponding limits. Both correspond to the general basis and concrete objects. Whereas the *Classic Tragedy of the Commons* corresponds to i) indifferent hedonists, ii) careless players, and iii) the chronic overstrained, the *Inverse Tragedy of the Commons* corresponds to i) hedonists, ii) the cool calculating, and iii) the tragic hopeless. All cluster around a systemic technical development as the technical core.

of a solution for the *Tragedy of Systemic Complexity*). Thus, the system of i) technical system, ii) micro level, and iii) macro level has now to be investigated as a system in a holistic systemic manner itself. Therefore, pinpointing the phenomenon of under exploited potentials to the same phenomenological root as the well known phenomenon of over exploited resources opens now the complete opportunities and tool set to examine the challenge of introducing a *Sustained Renewability* approach into practice (as e.g. in the renewable energy or grid IT sectors) as well as its principle day-to-day management. Thus, practical implications can be derived from an analysis of the micro and macro levels, which then have to be embedded in a systemic manner and approached on a theoretic level. Appliance of this concept with practical guidelines, the implementation of *Sustained Renewability* practically, can be realized in principle for every resource management sector.

Sustained Renewability: Approached by Systems Theory and Human Ecology 37

This macro level tragedy clarifies that renewable energy and grid IT organizations are just another example for complex infrastructures whose efficiency increase depends beyond more or less complex technical solutions on the participation of all subsystems concerning their societal internalization. In detail this means that each of those social subsystems must be analysed according to their internal constituents in respect towards the implementation of a systemic approach in respect to the status quo as well as to the ability to react to an until then not used or entire novel systemic approach. Thus, it might be, that such a systemic approach might not at all be implementable within such a subsystem at first, that major transformation need to be made, or that in the best case already existing structures can be used. The same holds for the communication between the subsystems, since here different internal preparedness levels might either ease or worse the communication in respect to such an implementation. Consequently, the challenge of implementation of *Sustained Renewability* approaches into society involves again two levels: On the micro level of individual subsystems the move towards implementation depends on the subsystem "stickiness" of individuals. On the macro subsystem level the integration of institutionalized subsystems via soft interfaces, which allow the communication barriers to be lowered, is central. Both has to be taken care of since this is given beyond the systemic pathways within

the subsystem and the setting how subsystems can be moved or interact with others.

combined on the social system level in a sustainable systemic manner.

**8. The tragedy of security/risk/profit psychology** 

The acceptance of this is an important knowledge opening huge opportunities to examine and approach the challenge of introducing renewables or grids and their management. Beyond, this clarifies the challenges in all other exploitation sectors (probably residing in other subsystems) since all subsystems should always be involved. Thus, the *Tragedy of the Systemic Complexity* in terms of systemic integration into society can be understood and has to be taken into account. Beyond, the *Classic* and *Inverse Tragedy of the Commons* are a societal challenge with the opportunity to be resolved, if as well the technical systemic approach is

Since the macro level of social subsystems emerges evolutionarily from the micro level (Egger, 2008), one needs to consider the individual for whom each implementation and internalization of a new technology is based on a positive relation between the risk and the profit involved from the perspective of the individual. This is the core of any action a human individual takes and defines the degree of motivation a person commits to an action, i.e. the change of something in contrast to doing nothing. Thus, the level of altruism leading to successful implementation as in the renewable energy case or the sharing in the grid IT case on the individual level and its commitment beyond its own job/agenda, as well as that of its own institution without incentive structure to take responsibilities, is essential and leads to responsibility diffusion: Even the obvious winwin situation renewables like photovoltaic on the roof, or small hydroelectrics on the grounds of an individual, are hard to communicate and even the clear effects of producing with no energy resource costs the own energy result in slow implementation of renewables compared to the benefits and the climate issue at face. Even more so, the clear win-win situations for individual grid users are under these circumstances hard to communicate and even the additional networking effects result hardly in the set-up or usage of grids. It is also unlikely that people take the risk to exceed their own budget and corresponding responsibilities, when future results and its benefits are unclear to them.
