**5. Future projection**

78 Sustainable Growth and Applications in Renewable Energy Sources

Lignite production depends on electricity production While 1% of produced lignite in 1970 was used in power stations, 5% was used as house hold and industry. In 2000, the share of lignite consumption by sectoral were 82% and 18% power station and house hold and industry, respectively. In 2009, the share of the power station in lignite consumption

> **1000-2000 Kcal/kg %65.6**

increased and reached to 83% (Fig. 19).

**3000-4000 Kcal/kg %5.1**

Fig. 18. Lignite by calorific value

**<sup>1</sup> <sup>2</sup> <sup>6</sup>**

*7*

**9**

*5*

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

Lignite production/consumption [Million ton/year]

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

**6**

**20**

*15*

**35**

*9*

**15**

**30**

*16*

**46**

Lignite production Lignite consumption

**40**

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Fig. 19. Lignite production/consumption and consumption areas (data from TKI, 1970-2009)

*13*

**52**

**53**

*11*

**64**

**<sup>48</sup> <sup>51</sup>**

**Power station**

*10*

**60**

*8*

**57**

**61**

*12*

**72**

**<sup>66</sup> <sup>63</sup>**

*13*

**75 76**

**House hold+industry**

**>4000 Kcal/kg %1.8**

**<1000 Kcal/kg %3.2**

> **2000-3000 Kcal/kg %24.3**

The primary energy production–consumption of Turkey and distribution of electricity production of Turkey by sources projected for the years 2015 and 2020 are given in Figs. 20–21. No major change is seen or foreseen in the development of share of domestic energy sources in primary energy production. It is planned that this rate will be 32% in 2015 and 30% in 2020. In other words, 70% of the primary energy production of Turkey will be dependent on imports. On the other hand, renewable energy sources and hard coal constitute 90% of the primary energy consumption; 5–10 points increase is foreseen in the share of coal in primary energy production 2015 and 2020. It is planned that this share will be 54% and 61%, respectively, for the years. The dependence on imported energy sources for electricity production projected for the years 2015 and 2020 are 47% and 50%, respectively (Fig.22). It is projected that the share of coal in electricity production will increase to 28% in 2020 and no significant change is planned in electricity production using renewable sources and it is projected that this share will decrease to 23% in 2020. In other words, Turkey does not plan to introduce any expansion in energy production until 2020 when compared with today's conditions according to its energy projections (Ylmaz,2008; TPAO 2006).

Fig. 20. Projection of development of the share of domestic energy sources in overall primary energy consumption (data from MENR, 2006,2010).

Renewable Energy and Coal Use in Turkey 81

percentage of 89% (26 billion dollars) of the overall energy source imports and it is followed by hard coal with a percentage of 11% (3 billion dollars). The incredible increase rate of natural gas consumption in the recent years constitutes an important expense item in the imports items of Turkey. More importantly, use of natural gas in industry and electricity production makes Turkey completely dependent on the foreign countries in terms of energy security. Especially Turkey's supplying over 50% of its electricity production from natural gas causes very severe security problems and Turkey should question this issue very seriously. On the other hand, although Turkey has sufficient hard coal reserves, it increasingly imports hard coal in order to consume it in industry and electricity production due to some reasons such as production difficulties and insufficient investments. Turkey should immediately take action in order to meet such requirements from its own sources. It should not be expected that the domestic production covers the consumption within a very short time, but it should be aimed at meeting or minimizing the deficit between the production and import within a long time. On the other hand, although Turkey has sufficient lignite reserves for electricity production, importing hard coal for this purpose is a

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

**<sup>17</sup> <sup>20</sup> <sup>18</sup> <sup>17</sup> <sup>15</sup> <sup>18</sup> <sup>21</sup> <sup>20</sup> <sup>24</sup> <sup>21</sup>**

**117**

**73**

**140**

**86**

**170**

**107**

**202**

**132**

**141**

**102**

Import 55 41 52 69 98 117 140 170 202 141 Export 28 31 36 47 63 73 86 107 132 102 Energy imp/import. [%] 17 20 18 17 15 18 21 20 24 21

**69**

**47**

**98**

**63**

completely strategic mistake (Ylmaz,2008).

**55**

0

50

100

**Import-Export, [Billion \$]**

150

200

250

**41**

Fig. 23. Load of energy source imports on Turkey's economy

**<sup>28</sup> <sup>31</sup> <sup>36</sup>**

**52**

Fig. 21. Projection of distribution of domestic energy sources in overall primary energy production (data from MENR, 2006,2010).

Fig. 22. Projection of development of domestic energy sources in electricity production (data from MENR, 2006,2010).
