**Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life**

Michael Zgurovsky

*National Technical University of Ukraine "Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv, Ukraine*

#### **1. Introduction**

Sustainable Development – 200 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

http://www.tourism.gov.my/corporate/research.asp United Nations. (1997).

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Woodside, A, Lysonski, S. (1989). A General Model of Traveler Destination Choice, *Journal of* 

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http://www.un.org/jsummit/html/documents/summit\_docs.html UN Documents: *Johannesburg Declaration on Sustainable Development and Johannesburg* 

*Travel Research.* 27(4):8-14. World Future Council. Retrieved March 1, 2011 from http://www.worldfuturecouncil.org. World Tourism Organisation. (1997). *Tourism 2020 Vision*, Madrid: TO UN Conference on Environment and Development; Report UN: New York, NY, USA, 13 June 1992; Volume I, Doc A/CONF.151/26 31 ILM 874. *Rio Declaration on Environment and Development (Annex 2)*; UN World Commission on Environment and Development; Report UN: *Our Common Future*; Report, 4 August 1987; UN Documents: A/42/427; Retrieved 16 April 2011 from http://www.un-documents.net/ocf-10.htm UN Conference on Environment and Development; *Agenda 21 (Annex 2)*; 13 June 1992; Volume I, Doc A/CONF.151/26. UN Documents: *Background Paper for the UNCSD*; UNCSD: New York, NY, USA, 18

bp3.htm UN Documents: *Documents from the World Summit for Sustainable Development*; WSSD Documents; World Summit for Sustainable Development (WSSD): Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, August 2002; retrieved 01 March 2011 from

*Plan of Implementation*; Report of the World Summit on Sustainable Development; UN: New York, NY, USA, 4 September 2002; retrieved 01 March 2011 from http://www.un.org/jsummit/html/documents/summit\_docs.html UN Documents: *United Nations Millennium Development Goals*; Retrieved 01 March 2011

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from www.un.org/millenniumgoals.

pdf

Pearson Education Ltd.

*of Tourism Research*, 28(2), 269-290.

*Public-private partnerships: The enabling environment for development* 

This research is based on the concept of "sustainable development" being the further development of studies of V. Vernadskij about noosphere (Vernadskij, 1944). It has been theoretically and practically proved that on the edge of the centuries studies about the noosphere appeared to be a necessary platform for the development of three-dimension concept of ecological, social and economic sustainable development (Summit Planet Earth, 1992) and (Johannesburg Summit, 2002).

Economic approach is based on the optimal usage of limited resources and application of natural-, power- and material saving technologies for creation of the gross income flow which would at least provide the preservation (not reduction) of the gross capital (physical, natural or human), with the use of which the gross income is created.

From the ecological point of view the sustainable development is aimed at provision of the integrity of both biological and physical natural systems as well as their viability that influences the global stability of the whole biosphere. The ability of such systems to renovate and adapt to the various changes instead of maintenance of the biological variety in the certain static state, its degradation and loss is becoming extremely important.

Social constituent is aimed at human development, the preservation of stability of social and cultural systems, as well as the decrease in the number of conflicts in the society. A human being shall become not the object but the subject of the development participating in the processes of his/her vital activity formation, decision-making and implementation of the decisions, in the control over their implementation. To meet such requirements it is important to fairly distribute the wealth between the people, to observe pluralism of thoughts and tolerate human relationships, to preserve cultural capital and its variety, including first of all, the heritage of non-dominant cultures.

Systemic coordination and balance of these three components is an extremely difficult task. In particular, the interconnection of social and ecological constituents causes the necessity to preserve equal rights of present and future generations to use natural resources. The interaction of social and economic constituents requires the achievement of equal and fair distribution of material wealth between people and help provision to the poor. And finally, the correlation of environmental and economic components requires the cost estimation of anthropogenic influences on environment. The solution of these tasks is the main challenge

Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life 203

dimensions: economic (*Iec*), ecological (*Ie*) and socio-institutional (*Is*). Under this condition *j*  gains a value of a real unit for a normal regular state of society development at *Csl***>0** and a

> 1, 0 conflict . *sl sl*

1 , 0;

**2.1.1 Sustainable development estimation methodology in the context of quality of** 

In this case the indicators and policy categories included are calculated as a weighted total:

*n n i j ij j j j I wx i m w* 

where *Ii* is a value of an indicator or a category of policy for ith country (the number of the countries is m), *wj* is weight of the jth component of I index (the number of the components is

Such representation of integrated indices (indicators and categories of policy) envisages that components of xi,j in the formula (3) must be non-dimensional and vary within the same

Considering the fact that all data, indicators and indices included into the model are measured by virtue of different physical values, may be interpreted differently and change within the different ranges, they were aggregated to the standard form in such a way that all their variations would occur within the range from 0 to 1. The following formula was used:

> , 1

( )

where *xi,j*and *li,j* are respectively the initial and standard **jth** value for **ith** region, *<sup>j</sup> x* is the average value of *xj* at sampling and *σ(xj)* is the corresponding standard deviation. To calculate a mean value and a standard deviation value the following formulae are

> , , 1 1

*m m* 

 

*m m*

*i i j j*

*x x*

,( ) <sup>1</sup>

*i j ij j*

*x x x*

 

*j ij j x x x*

, 1

*i j l e*

, 1, , 1

, 1 1

n), *xi, j*is a value of the jth component for *ith* country.

For every country the Euclidean norm of vector radius of human life quality (*Cql*

2 22 *C I II ql ec e s* . (2)

, (3)

2

.

( )

, (4)

) is given

value of an imaginary unit when a society enters conflict state (*Csl*=0):

**human life** 

range.

used:

in the following form:

*for C <sup>j</sup> for C* 

of the present time for the national governments, influential international organizations and all progressive people of the world.

In this research a Sustainable Development Gauging Matrix (SDGM) (Zgurovsky, 2007) within three abovementioned components is proposed and these processes are globally modeled in terms of quality and security of the human life. With the help of this Matrix the sustainable development processes have been globally modeled for a large group of world countries in terms of quality and security of the human life.

#### **2. The methodology of sustainable development evaluation in terms of quality and security of the human life**

#### **2.1 Sustainable development as the quaternary functional of quality and security of the human life**

The important issue in the process of implementation of the concept of sustainable development is the formation of the measurement system (Matrix) for the quantitative and qualitative assessment of this extremely complicated procedure.

The process of sustainable development will be characterized according to two main components: security (*Csl*) and quality (*Cql*) of the human life as it is shown in fig.1.

Fig. 1. Quaternary approach to the description of sustainable development process

Under this concept, the generalized measure (index) of sustainable development can be presented by means of the quaternion *{Q}:*

$$\mathbf{C}\left\{\mathbf{Q}\right\} = j\,\mathbf{C}\_{sl} + \vec{\mathbf{C}}\_{ql} \{I\_{ec}, I\_{e}, I\_{s}\}.\tag{1}$$

The quaternion *{Q}* includes an imaginary scalar part *sl jC* which describes the security of human life and a real scalar part as a projection of the norm of vector radius *C q l* to an ideal vector with coordinates (1;1;1) which describes the quality of human life within three Sustainable Development – 202 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

of the present time for the national governments, influential international organizations and

In this research a Sustainable Development Gauging Matrix (SDGM) (Zgurovsky, 2007) within three abovementioned components is proposed and these processes are globally modeled in terms of quality and security of the human life. With the help of this Matrix the sustainable development processes have been globally modeled for a large group of world

**2. The methodology of sustainable development evaluation in terms of** 

**2.1 Sustainable development as the quaternary functional of quality and security of** 

The important issue in the process of implementation of the concept of sustainable development is the formation of the measurement system (Matrix) for the quantitative and

The process of sustainable development will be characterized according to two main

**Sustainable Development**

*Q jC C sl ql*

components: security (*Csl*) and quality (*Cql*) of the human life as it is shown in fig.1.

Fig. 1. Quaternary approach to the description of sustainable development process

human life and a real scalar part as a projection of the norm of vector radius *C q l*

Under this concept, the generalized measure (index) of sustainable development can be

( , , ). *Q jC C I I I sl ql ec e s*

The quaternion *{Q}* includes an imaginary scalar part *sl jC* which describes the security of

vector with coordinates (1;1;1) which describes the quality of human life within three

(1)

**Quality of life component**  *Cql* 

to an ideal

all progressive people of the world.

countries in terms of quality and security of the human life.

qualitative assessment of this extremely complicated procedure.

**quality and security of the human life** 

presented by means of the quaternion *{Q}:*

**Security of life component**  *Csl*

**the human life** 

dimensions: economic (*Iec*), ecological (*Ie*) and socio-institutional (*Is*). Under this condition *j*  gains a value of a real unit for a normal regular state of society development at *Csl***>0** and a value of an imaginary unit when a society enters conflict state (*Csl*=0):

$$j = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{  $for $ \mathcal{C}\_{sl} > 0 $;}\\ \sqrt{-1} & \text{ $ for  $\mathcal{C}\_{sl} = 0$ } & \text{(conflict)}. \end{cases}$$

#### **2.1.1 Sustainable development estimation methodology in the context of quality of human life**

For every country the Euclidean norm of vector radius of human life quality (*Cql* ) is given in the following form:

$$\left\|\vec{\mathbf{C}}\_{ql}\right\| = \sqrt{I\_{\text{ec}}^2 + I\_e^2 + I\_s^2} \ . \tag{2}$$

In this case the indicators and policy categories included are calculated as a weighted total:

$$I\_i = \sum\_{j=1}^{n} w\_j \mathbf{x}\_{i,j}, \mathbf{i} = \overline{\mathbf{1}\_r} \overline{m}\_r \sum\_{j=1}^{n} w\_j = \mathbf{1}\_r \tag{3}$$

where *Ii* is a value of an indicator or a category of policy for ith country (the number of the countries is m), *wj* is weight of the jth component of I index (the number of the components is n), *xi, j*is a value of the jth component for *ith* country.

Such representation of integrated indices (indicators and categories of policy) envisages that components of xi,j in the formula (3) must be non-dimensional and vary within the same range.

Considering the fact that all data, indicators and indices included into the model are measured by virtue of different physical values, may be interpreted differently and change within the different ranges, they were aggregated to the standard form in such a way that all their variations would occur within the range from 0 to 1. The following formula was used:

$$\mathbf{M}\_{i,j} = \left(\mathbf{1} + e^{\frac{\overline{\mathbf{x}\_j} - \mathbf{x}\_{i,j}}{\sigma(\mathbf{x}\_j)}}\right)^{-1} \text{ .}\tag{4}$$

where *xi,j*and *li,j* are respectively the initial and standard **jth** value for **ith** region, *<sup>j</sup> x* is the average value of *xj* at sampling and *σ(xj)* is the corresponding standard deviation. To calculate a mean value and a standard deviation value the following formulae are used:

$$\overline{\mathfrak{\chi}\_{j}} = \frac{\sum\_{i=1}^{m} \mathfrak{x}\_{i,j}}{m}, \sigma(\mathfrak{x}\_{j}) = \sqrt{\frac{\sum\_{i=1}^{m} (\mathfrak{x}\_{i,j} - \overline{\mathfrak{x}\_{j}})^2}{m+1}} \dots$$

Such data setting provides that values of indicators being the worst from the point of view of sustainable development correspond to numerical values near to 0, and the best values approach 1.

This normalization gives the possibility to calculate each of *Iec*,*Ie*,*Is* indices and with the help of them the components with appropriate weighting coefficients. Then the quantitative value of human life quality can be identified as projection of the norm of this vector to an ideal vector with coordinates (1; 1; 1), (Fig.2):

$$\mathbf{C}\_{ql} = \sqrt{I\_{ec}^2 + I\_e^2 + I\_s^2} \cdot \mathbf{COS}(a) \,. \tag{5}$$

Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life 205

As the researches of human life quality and security are conducted with the help of different methods and sets of initial data, it is worth performing them separately in three stages. At the first stage we will analyze the human life quality as one of the components of sustainable development. At the second stage we will investigate the human life security as another component of sustainable development. And at the third stage we will calculate the aggregate value of the Sustainable Development Index using two components and

In order to conduct the research of the life quality component of sustainable development, it is necessary to sample the data with the help of which each of three dimensions of sustainable development will be characterized in the most appropriate way. These data shall conform to the following important requirements: they have to be formed annually on

Thus, the life quality component of sustainable development *Сql* and the harmonization level of sustainable development *G***=1–α** are calculated on the basis of their constituents *Iec*, *Ie*,*Is*. Considering the requirements to initial data mentioned above the value of every dimension *Iec*, *Ie*, *Is* will be calculated according to five global indices widely used in the international practice (Tab.1), being annually formed by the recognized international

Global index Constituents Source

*Ief*—Economic Liberty Index 10 indicators

*Iql*—Life Quality Index 9 indicators

**The Economic Dimension Index** (*Iec*) will be made of the two following global indices

1. *The Global Competitiveness Index* (*Ic*) was created by the organizers of the World Economic Forum. This index is annually estimated for 139 world economics and published in the form of so-called "Global competitiveness report" (World Economic Forum, n.d.). We will use the

12 policy categories, 25 indicators

10 policy categories, 25 indicators

3 policy categories, 4 indicators World Economic Forum [www.gcr.weforum.org]

Heritage Foundation

[www.heritage.org/ind

Yale and Columbia universities, USA [www.epi.yale.edu]

International Living [www.internationallivin

UNDevelopment

[www.hdr.undp.org]

&The Wall Street Journal

ex/]

g.com/]

program

continuing basis by respected and recognized international organizations.

*Ic*—Global Competitiveness

*EPI*—Environmental Performance Index

*Ihd*—Human Development

Table 1. Global indices used for calculation*Сql* and *G=1–α*

investigate this index.

Life quality component *Сql*

Economic (*Iec*)

Ecological (*Ie*)

Socio-

(Table 1.)

institutional (*Іs*)

organizations. Let us consider all of them.

Index

Index

The deviation angle **α** of the vector's radius *Cql* from the ideal vector (1,1,1) is estimated on the basis of the values of dimensions *Iec*, *Ie*, *Is* in the following way:

*I II*

Fig. 2. Human life quality component (*Сql*) and harmonization level (*G=1–α*)

Thus, the projection of the norm of the vector's radius *Cql* to the ideal vector (1,1,1) characterizes the human life quality and the attitude position of the vector *Cql* in the coordinate system (*Iec*, *Ie*, *Is*) characterizes the "harmonization" level of sustainable development. We should mention that when the angle α approaches 0, the harmonization level of sustainable development increases, i.e. the equidistance of the vector *Cql* from each of coordinates (*Iec*, *Ie*, *Is*) will correspond to the highest harmonization value of sustainable development. If this vector approaches one of these coordinates, this will indicate the priority direction of the corresponding dimension development and neglect of two others. Let the value *G=1–α* be the harmonization level of sustainable development. It will increase when *G* approaches 1 and decrease when *G* approaches 0.

Sustainable Development – 204 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

Such data setting provides that values of indicators being the worst from the point of view of sustainable development correspond to numerical values near to 0, and the best values

This normalization gives the possibility to calculate each of *Iec*,*Ie*,*Is* indices and with the help of them the components with appropriate weighting coefficients. Then the quantitative value of human life quality can be identified as projection of the norm of this vector to an

The deviation angle **α** of the vector's radius *Cql* from the ideal vector (1,1,1) is estimated on

2 22

*ec e s ec e s*

*I II I II*

the basis of the values of dimensions *Iec*, *Ie*, *Is* in the following way:

arccos , 3

Fig. 2. Human life quality component (*Сql*) and harmonization level (*G=1–α*)

characterizes the human life quality and the attitude position of the vector *Cql*

level of sustainable development increases, i.e. the equidistance of the vector *Cql*

coordinate system (*Iec*, *Ie*, *Is*) characterizes the "harmonization" level of sustainable development. We should mention that when the angle α approaches 0, the harmonization

of coordinates (*Iec*, *Ie*, *Is*) will correspond to the highest harmonization value of sustainable development. If this vector approaches one of these coordinates, this will indicate the priority direction of the corresponding dimension development and neglect of two others. Let the value *G=1–α* be the harmonization level of sustainable development. It will increase

Thus, the projection of the norm of the vector's radius *Cql*

when *G* approaches 1 and decrease when *G* approaches 0.

<sup>α</sup> 2 22 *C I II ql ec e s* cos . (5)

<sup>1</sup> 0 arccos .

 

3

(6)

to the ideal vector (1,1,1)

in the

from each

approach 1.

ideal vector with coordinates (1; 1; 1), (Fig.2):

α

As the researches of human life quality and security are conducted with the help of different methods and sets of initial data, it is worth performing them separately in three stages. At the first stage we will analyze the human life quality as one of the components of sustainable development. At the second stage we will investigate the human life security as another component of sustainable development. And at the third stage we will calculate the aggregate value of the Sustainable Development Index using two components and investigate this index.

In order to conduct the research of the life quality component of sustainable development, it is necessary to sample the data with the help of which each of three dimensions of sustainable development will be characterized in the most appropriate way. These data shall conform to the following important requirements: they have to be formed annually on continuing basis by respected and recognized international organizations.

Thus, the life quality component of sustainable development *Сql* and the harmonization level of sustainable development *G***=1–α** are calculated on the basis of their constituents *Iec*, *Ie*,*Is*. Considering the requirements to initial data mentioned above the value of every dimension *Iec*, *Ie*, *Is* will be calculated according to five global indices widely used in the international practice (Tab.1), being annually formed by the recognized international organizations. Let us consider all of them.


Table 1. Global indices used for calculation*Сql* and *G=1–α*

**The Economic Dimension Index** (*Iec*) will be made of the two following global indices (Table 1.)

1. *The Global Competitiveness Index* (*Ic*) was created by the organizers of the World Economic Forum. This index is annually estimated for 139 world economics and published in the form of so-called "Global competitiveness report" (World Economic Forum, n.d.). We will use the

Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life 207

These policy categories are formed of four indicators that characterize peculiar features of the education system of a country, nation poverty factors, level of unemployment, human healthcare activities, gender conditions in the country and other constituents of human development. Table 2 shows the groups of policy categories and indicators used for global modeling of

> 2. Ethics and corruption 3. Improper influence 4. State inefficiency

7. Power and communication

15. Demand condition quality

19. Reliability and confidentiality

17. Talent use effectiveness

23. Foreign market volume

4. Dependence of economics

1. Business freedom 2. Trade freedom 3. Fiscal freedom

on government 5. Monetary freedom 6. Investment freedom 7. Financial freedom 8. Private property right 9. Freedom from corruption 10. Labor market freedom

5. Safety

infrastructure

21. ICT usage

9. Population health 10. Basic education

11. Education quantity 12. Education quality 13. Correspondent education

Economic infrastructure 6. Transport infrastructure

Macroeconomic stability 8. Macroeconomic stability

Goods market effectiveness 14. Competition

Financial market perfection 18. Effectiveness

Innovations 25. Innovations

Technological readiness 20. Technology adaptation

Market scales 22. Domestic market volume

Labor market effectiveness 16. Flexibility

sustainable development processes in 2010.

*Object Policy category Indicator*

education

education system

3. **Innovation** Business perfection 24. Business perfection

**2. Effectiveness increase** Higher education and

**1. Basic requirements** Institutional environment 1. Property right

Human health and basic

*1. Global competitiveness index Ic*

*2. Economic Freedom index Ief*

**Economic dimension**

data of such report for 2010-2011. The Global Competitiveness Index is formed of the following three groups of indicators: *1— the group of indicators of basic requirements (Basic requirements); 2—the group of indicators of efficiency enhancers (Efficiency enhancers) and 3 – the group of indicators of innovation and sophistication factors (Innovation and sophistication factors).*

The first group includes four complex categories of economic policy: *Institutions*; *Infrastructure*; *Macroeconomic stability* and *Health and primary education*. The second one consists of six policy categories: *Higher education and training*; *Goods market efficiency*; *Labor market efficiency*; *Financial market development*; *Technological readiness* and *Market size*. The third group involves two important complex indicators: *Business sophistication* and *Innovation*.

2. The Index of Economic Freedom (*Ief*) was created by the Heritage Foundation (The Heritage Foundation, n.d.). This index is formed of the following ten indicators: a level of business freedom; a level of trade freedom; a level of fiscal freedom; a dependence degree of economics on the government; a level of monetary freedom; a level of investment freedom; a level of financial freedom; private property rights; a level of freedom from corruption; a level of labor-market freedom. These ten indicators are calculated according to the expert assessment and usage of different economic, financial, legislative and administrative data.

**The Ecological Dimension Index** (*Ie*) will be estimated with the help of EPI (Environmental Performance Index 2010 (Yale Center for Environmental Low& Policy, n.d.)). This index is formed by the **Yale Center** of Environmental Law and Policy together with Columbia University (USA) for 163 countries of the world.

To calculate this index the aggregation method is used according to which EPI 2010 index is formed of two categories of top-level environmental policy (Environmental health, being the sanitary state of environment, and Ecosystem vitality, which is the vital ability of the ecosystem), ten medium-level ecological indicators and 25 low-level indicators.

The presented index and its indicators identify the ability of every country to protect its environment both during a current period of time and also in long-term perspective, on the basis of availability of national environmental system, the ability to resist to environmental impacts and decrease in human dependence on environmental impacts, social and institutional resources of a country to meet the environmental challenges, possibility of global control over the environmental state of the country etc. Moreover, they can be used as a powerful tool for making decisions on the analytical basis including social and economic dimensions of sustainable development of the country.

**The Social Dimension index**(*Is*) will be formed of two global indices:

1. *The Life Quality Index* (*Iql*) which is created by the international organization International Living (International Living, 2009). This index is formed with the help of nine indicators: human life cost, leisure and culture of people, economic state of the country, environmental state of the country, human freedom, human health, an infrastructure state, life risks and safety, climate conditions.

2. *The Human Development Index* (*Ihd*), which is annually calculated under the UNO program 'United Nations Development Program' (UNDP) for the majority of countries which are members of this organization. It is formed on the basis of the aggregation method according to which three policy categories of human development are used on the top level i.e. health, education and welfare of the population of the country.

Sustainable Development – 206 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

data of such report for 2010-2011. The Global Competitiveness Index is formed of the following three groups of indicators: *1— the group of indicators of basic requirements (Basic requirements); 2—the group of indicators of efficiency enhancers (Efficiency enhancers) and 3 – the group of indicators of innovation and sophistication factors (Innovation and sophistication factors).* The first group includes four complex categories of economic policy: *Institutions*; *Infrastructure*; *Macroeconomic stability* and *Health and primary education*. The second one consists of six policy categories: *Higher education and training*; *Goods market efficiency*; *Labor market efficiency*; *Financial market development*; *Technological readiness* and *Market size*. The third group involves two important complex indicators: *Business sophistication* and *Innovation*.

2. The Index of Economic Freedom (*Ief*) was created by the Heritage Foundation (The Heritage Foundation, n.d.). This index is formed of the following ten indicators: a level of business freedom; a level of trade freedom; a level of fiscal freedom; a dependence degree of economics on the government; a level of monetary freedom; a level of investment freedom; a level of financial freedom; private property rights; a level of freedom from corruption; a level of labor-market freedom. These ten indicators are calculated according to the expert assessment and usage of different economic, financial, legislative and administrative data. **The Ecological Dimension Index** (*Ie*) will be estimated with the help of EPI (Environmental Performance Index 2010 (Yale Center for Environmental Low& Policy, n.d.)). This index is formed by the **Yale Center** of Environmental Law and Policy together with Columbia

To calculate this index the aggregation method is used according to which EPI 2010 index is formed of two categories of top-level environmental policy (Environmental health, being the sanitary state of environment, and Ecosystem vitality, which is the vital ability of the

The presented index and its indicators identify the ability of every country to protect its environment both during a current period of time and also in long-term perspective, on the basis of availability of national environmental system, the ability to resist to environmental impacts and decrease in human dependence on environmental impacts, social and institutional resources of a country to meet the environmental challenges, possibility of global control over the environmental state of the country etc. Moreover, they can be used as a powerful tool for making decisions on the analytical basis including social and economic

1. *The Life Quality Index* (*Iql*) which is created by the international organization International Living (International Living, 2009). This index is formed with the help of nine indicators: human life cost, leisure and culture of people, economic state of the country, environmental state of the country, human freedom, human health, an infrastructure state, life risks and

2. *The Human Development Index* (*Ihd*), which is annually calculated under the UNO program 'United Nations Development Program' (UNDP) for the majority of countries which are members of this organization. It is formed on the basis of the aggregation method according to which three policy categories of human development are used on the top level i.e. health,

ecosystem), ten medium-level ecological indicators and 25 low-level indicators.

University (USA) for 163 countries of the world.

dimensions of sustainable development of the country.

education and welfare of the population of the country.

safety, climate conditions.

**The Social Dimension index**(*Is*) will be formed of two global indices:

These policy categories are formed of four indicators that characterize peculiar features of the education system of a country, nation poverty factors, level of unemployment, human healthcare activities, gender conditions in the country and other constituents of human development.

Table 2 shows the groups of policy categories and indicators used for global modeling of sustainable development processes in 2010.


Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life 209

**1. Population health** Life expectancy index **2.Population education**  Adults literacy index Education coverage index **3. Population welfare** 

GDP index

Table 2. Policy categories and indicators for global modeling of sustainable development

As it is shown in Table 1 and 2, life quality component of sustainable development *Cql* and its harmonization degree *G =* **1 α** in the year 2010 were determined with the usage of

On the basis of description of relations between different categories of policy and indicators reduced to common calculating platform, the mathematical SDGM model was developed,

It was taken into account that all data, indicators and indexes included into model (Figure 3) are measured with the help of different physical quantities, may be interpreted differently

Fig. 3. The mathematical SDGM model for determination of life quality component of

sustainable development and its harmonization degree

**Life quality index** *Iql* **Human development index** *Ihd* Indicators Category of policy, indicators

Socio-institutional dimension

**1.Life quality**  Life cost

Leisure and culture State of economy State of environment Human freedom Human health State of infrastructure Life risks and safety Climate conditions

processes in 2010

twenty two categories of policy and 73 indicators.

the structure of which is presented in Figure 3.


Sustainable Development – 208 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

2. Air pollution in facilities 3. Dust pollution of city

4.Potable water availability 5. Availability of sanitation

6.Sulphur dioxide emissions 7. Nitrogen dioxide emissions 8. Non-methane organic volatiles emission

9. Surface ozone concentration

13. Protected nature territories

atmospheric air

(in ecosystems)

10. Water quality index 11. Water resources load index 12.Water resources deficiency

(biomes protection) 14. Marine protected areas 15. Index of Alliance against complete species extinction

woodland coverage 17. Woodland area change

19. Trawling intensity

21. State-subsidizing of

consumption for agricultural

22. Pesticides usage control

24. Carbon dioxide emission per unit of generated energy 25. Intensity of industrial greenhouse gases emission

means

index

7. Forestry 16. Growth change of

8. Fishery 18. Marine trophic index

9. Agriculture 20. Intensity of fresh water

10. Climate changes 23. Greenhouse gases emission

purposes

agriculture

per capita

1. **Ecological health** 1.Ecological disease load 1.Ecological disease load 2. Air pollution (influence on

3. Water (influence on

(influence on ecosystems)

5. Water (influence on

6. Biodiversity and natural

ecosystems)

habitat

*Object Policy category Indicator*

human)

human)

2. **Ecosystem viability** 4. Atmospheric air pollution

**Ecological dimension** 

**Ecological dimension index** *Ie***, (ЕРІ)** 


Table 2. Policy categories and indicators for global modeling of sustainable development processes in 2010

As it is shown in Table 1 and 2, life quality component of sustainable development *Cql* and its harmonization degree *G =* **1 α** in the year 2010 were determined with the usage of twenty two categories of policy and 73 indicators.

On the basis of description of relations between different categories of policy and indicators reduced to common calculating platform, the mathematical SDGM model was developed, the structure of which is presented in Figure 3.

It was taken into account that all data, indicators and indexes included into model (Figure 3) are measured with the help of different physical quantities, may be interpreted differently

Fig. 3. The mathematical SDGM model for determination of life quality component of sustainable development and its harmonization degree

Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life 211

{ } max

*RenewablesUsed Renewables*




Fig. 4. Change in "production-consumption" balance from positive into negative for energy

**Threat 2. The imbalance between biological abilities of the Earth and human needs in** 

In February 2011 the population of the planet has exceeded 7 million people living on the total area 510 072 000 km2. Daily growth of population is 211 467 people (GeoHive, n.d.). According to the method of arithmetic extrapolation the Earth population will have been 9,75 billion people by the year 2050. That is why the first threat appears being related to the fact that the Earth will be inhabited by the number of people that will exceed its abilities to sustain on the basis of the present natural resources. The Pentagon experts consider that the real problems for the mankind will have occurred by the year 2020, and will be connected with the catastrophic shortage of water, energy, foodstuff that can cause new conflicts on the

Nature can satisfy human requirements for business activity and only while this activity remains within the biosphere renewable capacity on the populated part of the planet. The

**biosphere in terms of the change in the world demographic structure (BB)** 

*<sup>j</sup> j countries*

,

*i*


production from oil, gas and uranium-235, accordingly

sources in national energetic;

Report 2007/2008, n.d.).

Earth (Membrane, n.d.).

where:

n.d.);

*i*

*RenewablesUsed*

and change within different ranges. That is why they were normalized for their changes to occur within range from 0 to 1. In this case the worst values of mentioned indicators conform to numeral values close to 1. Such normalization gives the opportunity to calculate every index *Iec*, *Ie*, *Is* and component *Cql* through their components with appropriate weight coefficients. In their turn the weight coefficients in the formula of calculation of life quality component of sustainable development *Cql* are selected in order to give the possibility to provide equal values of economic, ecological and social dimension in the coordinate system (*Iec*, *Ie*, *Is*).

Therefore, the SDGM model gives the possibility to calculate life quality component of sustainable development *Cql* and harmonization degree of this development *G =* **1 α** for every country of the world for which data about global indexes and indicators exist (Table 2).

#### **2.1.2 Methodology of sustainable development assessment in terms of the human life security**

Let us consider the global threats to the sustainable development to be those determined in the beginning of the XXI century by such recognized international organizations as UNO, World Health Organization (WHO), international organizations "World Economic Forum, Transparency International", "Global Footprint Network", "International Energy Agency", "World Resources Institute", company "British Petroleum" and others. The analysis of every threat will give the possibility to determine the vulnerability level of different countries of the world to the influence of these aggregated threats. Let us analyze each of the global threats separately.

#### **Threat 1. Global decrease in energy security (ES)**

For the first part of the XXI century one of the main critical challenges to the mankind is the rapid decrease in organic fuel resources that are extracted from entrails of the earth, and the increase in consumption of such resources, first of all, by India and China. In the beginning of the 20-ies of the current century, the curves of energy consumption and production of energy from oil will be crossed (AlenkaBurja, n.d.). In other words, the "productionconsumption" balance of energy, produced from oil, will change its value from positive to negative (Figure 4). The similar phenomena will occur for "production-consumption" balances of energy, made from gas in the beginning of 30-ies and for the energy generated from uranium-235 in the beginning of 50-ies, accordingly (Figure 4).

Thus, until the mankind invents the energy resources that could fully replace the organic types of fuel and nuclear energy, the energy security of a country in particular and the world in general, will decrease. In order to quantitatively estimate the energy security of different countries of the world let us introduce the energy security index (Energy Security Index, ES) that will be calculated by the formula

$$ES\_i = \frac{\text{Explansables}\_i + \text{Ronewables}\_i}{2}, i \in \{\text{counts}\},$$

$$\text{Explansables}\_i = \frac{\text{NuclearR}\_i + \text{CoalR}\_i + \text{OilR}\_i + \text{GasR}\_i}{\max\_{\forall i \in \{\text{counter}\}} [\text{NuclearR}\_j + \text{CoalR}\_j + \text{OilR}\_j + \text{GasR}\_j]},\tag{7}$$

$$Remewables\_i = \frac{Remewables \uplus d\_i}{\max\_{\forall^j \in \{continuous\}} Renvenues \uplus d\_j} \;'$$

where:

Sustainable Development – 210 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

and change within different ranges. That is why they were normalized for their changes to occur within range from 0 to 1. In this case the worst values of mentioned indicators conform to numeral values close to 1. Such normalization gives the opportunity to calculate every index *Iec*, *Ie*, *Is* and component *Cql* through their components with appropriate weight coefficients. In their turn the weight coefficients in the formula of calculation of life quality component of sustainable development *Cql* are selected in order to give the possibility to provide equal values of economic, ecological and social dimension in the coordinate system

Therefore, the SDGM model gives the possibility to calculate life quality component of sustainable development *Cql* and harmonization degree of this development *G =* **1 α** for every country of the world for which data about global indexes and indicators exist

**2.1.2 Methodology of sustainable development assessment in terms of the human life** 

Let us consider the global threats to the sustainable development to be those determined in the beginning of the XXI century by such recognized international organizations as UNO, World Health Organization (WHO), international organizations "World Economic Forum, Transparency International", "Global Footprint Network", "International Energy Agency", "World Resources Institute", company "British Petroleum" and others. The analysis of every threat will give the possibility to determine the vulnerability level of different countries of the world to the influence of these aggregated threats. Let us analyze each of the global

For the first part of the XXI century one of the main critical challenges to the mankind is the rapid decrease in organic fuel resources that are extracted from entrails of the earth, and the increase in consumption of such resources, first of all, by India and China. In the beginning of the 20-ies of the current century, the curves of energy consumption and production of energy from oil will be crossed (AlenkaBurja, n.d.). In other words, the "productionconsumption" balance of energy, produced from oil, will change its value from positive to negative (Figure 4). The similar phenomena will occur for "production-consumption" balances of energy, made from gas in the beginning of 30-ies and for the energy generated

Thus, until the mankind invents the energy resources that could fully replace the organic types of fuel and nuclear energy, the energy security of a country in particular and the world in general, will decrease. In order to quantitatively estimate the energy security of different countries of the world let us introduce the energy security index (Energy Security

*i i*

*Exhaustables Renewables ES i countries* ,

,{ } <sup>2</sup>

max [ ] *i ii i*

*NuclearR CoalR OilR GasR*

, (7)

*j jj j j countries*

(*Iec*, *Ie*, *Is*).

(Table 2).

**security** 

threats separately.

**Threat 1. Global decrease in energy security (ES)** 

Index, ES) that will be calculated by the formula

*i*

*i*

from uranium-235 in the beginning of 50-ies, accordingly (Figure 4).

{ }

*NuclearR CoalR OilR GasR Exhaustables*


Fig. 4. Change in "production-consumption" balance from positive into negative for energy production from oil, gas and uranium-235, accordingly

#### **Threat 2. The imbalance between biological abilities of the Earth and human needs in biosphere in terms of the change in the world demographic structure (BB)**

In February 2011 the population of the planet has exceeded 7 million people living on the total area 510 072 000 km2. Daily growth of population is 211 467 people (GeoHive, n.d.). According to the method of arithmetic extrapolation the Earth population will have been 9,75 billion people by the year 2050. That is why the first threat appears being related to the fact that the Earth will be inhabited by the number of people that will exceed its abilities to sustain on the basis of the present natural resources. The Pentagon experts consider that the real problems for the mankind will have occurred by the year 2020, and will be connected with the catastrophic shortage of water, energy, foodstuff that can cause new conflicts on the Earth (Membrane, n.d.).

Nature can satisfy human requirements for business activity and only while this activity remains within the biosphere renewable capacity on the populated part of the planet. The

Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life 213

change of the world we will use the indicator which is ecological reserve ("+") or deficit

According to the World Bank data, in the year 1973 the difference in incomes between the richest and poorest countries were determined by ratio 44:1, and today it is 72:1. The assets of three world's richest people exceed the wealth of 47 countries of the world. Assets of the whole mankind are controlled by 475 richest people. Assets of 50 richest people of Ukraine which amount to 64,4 billion dollars in 2007 exceeded two national budgets of the country, in particular (Donbass Internet Paper. News.dn.ua, n.d.). The correlation between one fifth of the richest and one fifth of the poorest parts of the Earth population has reached 1:75. Wealth of civilization still remains unachievable for the poorest group. Its representatives spend less than two dollars a day; 700 million of them live in Asia, 400 million live in Africa and 150 in Latin America. The gap between the richest and the poorest groups of people of the Earth has risen approximately tenfold according to their living standards in the course of the last 20 years. The threat is considered to be dangerous due to the growing number of the world conflicts, growth of corruption, terrorism and crime, ecology deterioration, a decrease

**In order to estimate the distribution inequality of economical and social boons for each country the SP-index (CIA, n.d.) which identifies these characteristics will be used.** 

The World Health Organization considers such diseases as cancer, cardio ischemia, cerebrovascular disease (paralysis), chest troubles, diarrhea, AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, diabetes to be the most dangerous for mankind as they may not only have bad consequences

("-") in global hectares per capita for a country (Global Footprint Network, n.d.). **Threat 3.Growing inequality between people and countries on the Earth (GINI)** 

in the level of education and health service support.

**Threat 4.The spread of global diseases (GD)** 

but also globally spread all over the world.

Fig. 5. Comparison of mortality factors, 2004 -2030 (Mathers, 2006)

calculation of ecologically disturbed area (Ecological Footprint) (Global Footprint Network, n.d.) gives the possibility to establish some limit according to which the ecological requirements to the world economics are within or exceed the biosphere abilities to supply the people with goods and services. This limit helps people, organizations and government to create strategies, establish the goals and provide the process according to the requirements of the sustainable development.

Ecologically disturbed territory (Ecological Footprint) determines which its part is necessary to preserve present population according to the present level of consumption, level of technological development and usage efficiency of natural wealth. The unit of measurement of this dimension is average (global on the whole Earth) hectare. The most substantial component of the Ecological Footprint is the territory of the Earth used for foodstuff production, forest area, biofuel amount, ocean (seas) territory, used for fishing and the most important element is the Earth area, necessary to support the life of plants absorbing the emissions of CO2 as a result of organic fuel burning.

Ecological Footprint envisages that in world economy the people use resources and ecological services from all over the world. Thus, the indicator for a country may exceed its actual biological possibilities. On the basis of it, the essence of Ecological Footprint for a country is the extent of its consumption and global impact on environment.

The same methodology can be used for calculation (in the same values) of biological abilities of the Earth, biological productivity of its territory. In 2011 biological abilities of the Earth were approximately 11.2 billion or 1.8 global hectares per capita (non-human species were not considered). Now the human need in biosphere, i.e. its global Ecological Footprint is 18.1 billion global hectares or 2.7 global hectares per capita. That is why, today global Ecological Footprint exceeds biological abilities of the Earth by 0.9 global hectares per capita or by 50%. This means that vital resources of the planet disappear faster than the nature can renew.

This threat has substantial correlation degree with demographic structure change of the planet population. For example, according to UNO (Human Development Report 2007/2008, n.d.) the biggest growth of population over a period of the following 50 years is expected in the poorest regions of the world: in Africa it will increase in 2 times, In Latin America and Caribbean basin will increase in 1.5 time, at the same time in Europe it will decrease in 0, 8 times. Essential threat is also uncontrolled increase in the urban population in underdeveloped countries. By the year 2050 it will have been doubled approximating to 10 billion people. It will lead to intensification of transport, ecological and social problems, an increase in criminality and other consequencess of chaotic urbanization.

The important tendency of the nearest decades is rapid change in the structure of religious groups of the Earth population. So, from 1980 to 2005 the number of Muslins will increase from 16,5% to 30%, the number of Christians will decrease from 13.3% to 3%, the number of Hindus will decrease from 13.3% to 10%, the number of Buddhists will decrease from 6.3% to 5%. The number of representatives of other religious groups will also decrease from 31.1% to 25% (Science Council of Japan, 2005). These changes will cause the necessity of searching new methods of tolerance coexistence of people on the Earth.

For estimation of increasing threats, connected with imbalance between biological capability of the Earth and human requirements in biosphere, in terms of demographic structure change of the world we will use the indicator which is ecological reserve ("+") or deficit ("-") in global hectares per capita for a country (Global Footprint Network, n.d.).

#### **Threat 3.Growing inequality between people and countries on the Earth (GINI)**

According to the World Bank data, in the year 1973 the difference in incomes between the richest and poorest countries were determined by ratio 44:1, and today it is 72:1. The assets of three world's richest people exceed the wealth of 47 countries of the world. Assets of the whole mankind are controlled by 475 richest people. Assets of 50 richest people of Ukraine which amount to 64,4 billion dollars in 2007 exceeded two national budgets of the country, in particular (Donbass Internet Paper. News.dn.ua, n.d.). The correlation between one fifth of the richest and one fifth of the poorest parts of the Earth population has reached 1:75. Wealth of civilization still remains unachievable for the poorest group. Its representatives spend less than two dollars a day; 700 million of them live in Asia, 400 million live in Africa and 150 in Latin America. The gap between the richest and the poorest groups of people of the Earth has risen approximately tenfold according to their living standards in the course of the last 20 years. The threat is considered to be dangerous due to the growing number of the world conflicts, growth of corruption, terrorism and crime, ecology deterioration, a decrease in the level of education and health service support.

#### **In order to estimate the distribution inequality of economical and social boons for each country the SP-index (CIA, n.d.) which identifies these characteristics will be used.**

#### **Threat 4.The spread of global diseases (GD)**

Sustainable Development – 212 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

calculation of ecologically disturbed area (Ecological Footprint) (Global Footprint Network, n.d.) gives the possibility to establish some limit according to which the ecological requirements to the world economics are within or exceed the biosphere abilities to supply the people with goods and services. This limit helps people, organizations and government to create strategies, establish the goals and provide the process according to the

Ecologically disturbed territory (Ecological Footprint) determines which its part is necessary to preserve present population according to the present level of consumption, level of technological development and usage efficiency of natural wealth. The unit of measurement of this dimension is average (global on the whole Earth) hectare. The most substantial component of the Ecological Footprint is the territory of the Earth used for foodstuff production, forest area, biofuel amount, ocean (seas) territory, used for fishing and the most important element is the Earth area, necessary to support the life of plants absorbing the

Ecological Footprint envisages that in world economy the people use resources and ecological services from all over the world. Thus, the indicator for a country may exceed its actual biological possibilities. On the basis of it, the essence of Ecological Footprint for a

The same methodology can be used for calculation (in the same values) of biological abilities of the Earth, biological productivity of its territory. In 2011 biological abilities of the Earth were approximately 11.2 billion or 1.8 global hectares per capita (non-human species were not considered). Now the human need in biosphere, i.e. its global Ecological Footprint is 18.1 billion global hectares or 2.7 global hectares per capita. That is why, today global Ecological Footprint exceeds biological abilities of the Earth by 0.9 global hectares per capita or by 50%. This means that vital resources of the planet disappear faster than the nature can

This threat has substantial correlation degree with demographic structure change of the planet population. For example, according to UNO (Human Development Report 2007/2008, n.d.) the biggest growth of population over a period of the following 50 years is expected in the poorest regions of the world: in Africa it will increase in 2 times, In Latin America and Caribbean basin will increase in 1.5 time, at the same time in Europe it will decrease in 0, 8 times. Essential threat is also uncontrolled increase in the urban population in underdeveloped countries. By the year 2050 it will have been doubled approximating to 10 billion people. It will lead to intensification of transport, ecological and social problems,

The important tendency of the nearest decades is rapid change in the structure of religious groups of the Earth population. So, from 1980 to 2005 the number of Muslins will increase from 16,5% to 30%, the number of Christians will decrease from 13.3% to 3%, the number of Hindus will decrease from 13.3% to 10%, the number of Buddhists will decrease from 6.3% to 5%. The number of representatives of other religious groups will also decrease from 31.1% to 25% (Science Council of Japan, 2005). These changes will cause the necessity of

For estimation of increasing threats, connected with imbalance between biological capability of the Earth and human requirements in biosphere, in terms of demographic structure

country is the extent of its consumption and global impact on environment.

an increase in criminality and other consequencess of chaotic urbanization.

searching new methods of tolerance coexistence of people on the Earth.

requirements of the sustainable development.

emissions of CO2 as a result of organic fuel burning.

renew.

The World Health Organization considers such diseases as cancer, cardio ischemia, cerebrovascular disease (paralysis), chest troubles, diarrhea, AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, diabetes to be the most dangerous for mankind as they may not only have bad consequences but also globally spread all over the world.

Fig. 5. Comparison of mortality factors, 2004 -2030 (Mathers, 2006)

Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life 215

Such tendencies signify another global threat due to marginalization of social and economic processes, a decrease in ecological and sanitary standards, impoverishment of people in the majority of countries of the world. In the further modeling, the data on the child mortality rate or under-5 mortality rate will be used. This data is collected by World Health Organization (WHO) and published in WHO Annual Reports and Statistical Information System. That data is also accessible at World Data Center for Geoinformatics and

Corruption is the biggest obstacle to the economic and social development of society. It endangers every change. Corruption has become not only one of the main reasons of poverty but also a source which prevents its overcoming. Although corruption had existed for a long time it became more widely spread in the process of globalization at the end of the

Corruption in one country had negative impact on the development of other countries which means that countries with the high level of corruption are not limited to the Third World. The process of liberalization in the former socialist countries was accompanied by unprecedented position abuses in 90-ies. Thus, Financial Times proclaimed 1995 to be "the year of corruption". The following years were marked with the spread of this phenomenon almost throughout all countries of the world and corruption itself became of global and

Wellbeing did not become the prerequisite of successful elimination of corruption. The analysis of long-term tendencies revealed by the international organization «Transparency International» showed that during last 12 years the level of corruption has decreased in such countries as Estonia, Columbia, Bulgaria. Nevertheless, the growth of corruption occurs in such developed countries as Canada and Ireland. Such factors of risks as opacity of state authorities, excessive influence of separate oligarchic groups, violation in financing of political parties, etc. exist both in poor and rich countries and unfortunately, tendencies in

Usually, the structure of corruption is different in different countries of the world. Figure 6 illustrates countries and segments of society with the highest level of corruption according

Figure 7 shows average indices of corruption in different segments of society according to

To estimate the influence of corruption on socio-economical and cultural development of different countries of the world we will use "the index of corruption perception" established by the international organization "Transparency International" (Report on the Transparency

According to the data of the WHO **and** the UNICEF (Corruption Perception Index 2008, 2008) the world is under the threat of increase of limited access to drinking-water and sanitary facilities. The fifth part of all mankind (11 billion people) does not have access to drinking-water and 2,4 billion of people do not have minimal sanitary facilities. That is why

Sustainable Development (WDC-Ukraine). **Threat 6. The growth of corruption (CP)**

20th at the beginning of 2the 1th centuries.

increase of corruption scale are the same.

to (Transparency International, n.d.).

(Transparency International, n.d.).

International Global Corruption Barometer 2007, 2007).

**Threat 7. Limited access to drinking-water (WA)**

international character.

During the next 20 years the sufficient increase in mortality caused by all non- infectious global diseases and decrease in mortality caused by AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria are expected. Such diseases as cardio ischemia, cerebrovascular disease, lung cancer and diabetes will become main global diseases during this period. At the same time the rate of total mortality from tobacco consumption will increase from 5.8 million people in the year 2009 to 6.4 million in the year 2015 and 8.3 million in 2030. Thus, tobacco is expected to kill by 50% people more than AIDS. Total human mortality on the Earth will be by 10% predetermined by the tobacco consumption.

But for estimation of the level of protection of the countries against quickly-spreading diseases it is reasonable to use the data on infectious diseases. In the further modeling the data on total mortality of the population of the world countries (million per year) caused by the totality of infectious diseases such as diarrhea (the most common mortality factor in underdeveloped countries), AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and others will be used (Mathers, 2006).

#### **Threat** *5.* **Child mortality (CM)**

The child mortality rate or under-5 mortality rate is the number of children who die by the age of five, per thousand live births per year. According to the data of United Nations Children's Fund 11 million children aged less than 5 die every year. Poverty which leads to bad health of mothers, insufficient nutrition and unsatisfactory sanitary is the reason of child mortality. Such factors as infectious diseases, poor health care and conflicts also increase child mortality. Africa, for example, has high rates of child mortality which are connected with AIDS epidemic, poor sanitary conditions and bad nutrition. The increase in child mortality in Iraq and Afghanistan is mostly caused by the conflicts.

According to UNICEF, most child deaths (and 70% in developing countries) result from one the following five causes or a combination thereof: acute respiratory infections, diarrhea, measles, malaria, malnutrition.

There is a significant difference in the indices of child mortality for different countries. In western industrially developed countries from 4 to 7 out of 1000 children die under the age of 5 years. The average rate of child mortality in developing countries is 158. In Sierra Leone, for example, every fourth child dies at infant age. Every tenth child doesn't live to 5 years in Iraq.

The rate of child mortality in the countries of the former Soviet Union in 10-12 times exceeds the rate of child mortality in the countries of Western Europe. It is particularly high in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.

Leaders of the countries took the responsibilities to decrease the rate of death of children aged under 5 years by two thirds by the year 2015. The United Nations Children's Fund now warns that 98 countries of the world will not be able to succeed in the specified task.

One of the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is to reduce child mortality, and the target is to "Reduce by two thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate". According to the UN MDG Report 2010 child deaths are falling, but not quickly enough to reach the target. Revitalizing efforts against pneumonia and diarrhoea, while bolstering nutrition, could save millions of children. Recent success in controlling measles may be short-lived if funding gaps are not bridged.

Such tendencies signify another global threat due to marginalization of social and economic processes, a decrease in ecological and sanitary standards, impoverishment of people in the majority of countries of the world. In the further modeling, the data on the child mortality rate or under-5 mortality rate will be used. This data is collected by World Health Organization (WHO) and published in WHO Annual Reports and Statistical Information System. That data is also accessible at World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development (WDC-Ukraine).

#### **Threat 6. The growth of corruption (CP)**

Sustainable Development – 214 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

During the next 20 years the sufficient increase in mortality caused by all non- infectious global diseases and decrease in mortality caused by AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria are expected. Such diseases as cardio ischemia, cerebrovascular disease, lung cancer and diabetes will become main global diseases during this period. At the same time the rate of total mortality from tobacco consumption will increase from 5.8 million people in the year 2009 to 6.4 million in the year 2015 and 8.3 million in 2030. Thus, tobacco is expected to kill by 50% people more than AIDS. Total human mortality on the Earth will be by 10%

But for estimation of the level of protection of the countries against quickly-spreading diseases it is reasonable to use the data on infectious diseases. In the further modeling the data on total mortality of the population of the world countries (million per year) caused by the totality of infectious diseases such as diarrhea (the most common mortality factor in underdeveloped countries), AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and others will be used (Mathers,

The child mortality rate or under-5 mortality rate is the number of children who die by the age of five, per thousand live births per year. According to the data of United Nations Children's Fund 11 million children aged less than 5 die every year. Poverty which leads to bad health of mothers, insufficient nutrition and unsatisfactory sanitary is the reason of child mortality. Such factors as infectious diseases, poor health care and conflicts also increase child mortality. Africa, for example, has high rates of child mortality which are connected with AIDS epidemic, poor sanitary conditions and bad nutrition. The increase in

According to UNICEF, most child deaths (and 70% in developing countries) result from one the following five causes or a combination thereof: acute respiratory infections, diarrhea,

There is a significant difference in the indices of child mortality for different countries. In western industrially developed countries from 4 to 7 out of 1000 children die under the age of 5 years. The average rate of child mortality in developing countries is 158. In Sierra Leone, for example, every fourth child dies at infant age. Every tenth child doesn't live to 5 years in Iraq. The rate of child mortality in the countries of the former Soviet Union in 10-12 times exceeds the rate of child mortality in the countries of Western Europe. It is particularly high in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,

Leaders of the countries took the responsibilities to decrease the rate of death of children aged under 5 years by two thirds by the year 2015. The United Nations Children's Fund now

One of the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is to reduce child mortality, and the target is to "Reduce by two thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate". According to the UN MDG Report 2010 child deaths are falling, but not quickly enough to reach the target. Revitalizing efforts against pneumonia and diarrhoea, while bolstering nutrition, could save millions of children. Recent success in controlling measles may be

warns that 98 countries of the world will not be able to succeed in the specified task.

child mortality in Iraq and Afghanistan is mostly caused by the conflicts.

predetermined by the tobacco consumption.

**Threat** *5.* **Child mortality (CM)**

measles, malaria, malnutrition.

short-lived if funding gaps are not bridged.

Uzbekistan.

2006).

Corruption is the biggest obstacle to the economic and social development of society. It endangers every change. Corruption has become not only one of the main reasons of poverty but also a source which prevents its overcoming. Although corruption had existed for a long time it became more widely spread in the process of globalization at the end of the 20th at the beginning of 2the 1th centuries.

Corruption in one country had negative impact on the development of other countries which means that countries with the high level of corruption are not limited to the Third World. The process of liberalization in the former socialist countries was accompanied by unprecedented position abuses in 90-ies. Thus, Financial Times proclaimed 1995 to be "the year of corruption". The following years were marked with the spread of this phenomenon almost throughout all countries of the world and corruption itself became of global and international character.

Wellbeing did not become the prerequisite of successful elimination of corruption. The analysis of long-term tendencies revealed by the international organization «Transparency International» showed that during last 12 years the level of corruption has decreased in such countries as Estonia, Columbia, Bulgaria. Nevertheless, the growth of corruption occurs in such developed countries as Canada and Ireland. Such factors of risks as opacity of state authorities, excessive influence of separate oligarchic groups, violation in financing of political parties, etc. exist both in poor and rich countries and unfortunately, tendencies in increase of corruption scale are the same.

Usually, the structure of corruption is different in different countries of the world. Figure 6 illustrates countries and segments of society with the highest level of corruption according to (Transparency International, n.d.).

Figure 7 shows average indices of corruption in different segments of society according to (Transparency International, n.d.).

To estimate the influence of corruption on socio-economical and cultural development of different countries of the world we will use "the index of corruption perception" established by the international organization "Transparency International" (Report on the Transparency International Global Corruption Barometer 2007, 2007).

#### **Threat 7. Limited access to drinking-water (WA)**

According to the data of the WHO **and** the UNICEF (Corruption Perception Index 2008, 2008) the world is under the threat of increase of limited access to drinking-water and sanitary facilities. The fifth part of all mankind (11 billion people) does not have access to drinking-water and 2,4 billion of people do not have minimal sanitary facilities. That is why

Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life 217

one to several °С (in different regions of the world or in the Earth in average) in 1990-2080 years. The warming is expected to cause other climate changes such as an increase in the level of Word Ocean by 0,1-5 m. (probably, in 30-40 years), the appearance of new viruses and also the change of atmospheric condensation and their distribution. This may result in an increase in such natural disasters as floods, draughts, hurricanes etc; a decrease in harvests of agricultural crops, the emergence of new epidemic diseases and the extinction of many biological species. As a result of the control over decreasing natural resources the struggle not only between countries but also between separate groups of population can exacerbate. This process will cause new global conflicts. The influence of carbon dioxide emissions on the global warming is much higher than the corresponding influence of methane. That is why the danger of global warming will be estimated by the amount of

Data about emissions is obtained by WDC-Ukraine from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC). It can be obtained with data extraction tool (http://wdc.org.ua/en/data). Original data is only the amount of Carbon (C) and calculation has been done to convert Carbon into Carbon Dioxide (CO2): values were multiplied by according coefficient (12+16\*2)/12. Per capita emission data is based on

After the end of Cold War and Soviet Union collapse (1991) the world has entered the era of new dramatic geopolitical processes. The following 18 years were marked with the blistering growth of globalization. Technical revolution in the field of informationcommunication technologies has made the world policy more transparent and led to an increase in changes influence which occurred in one region and affected the other parts of the planet. Due to these new qualities of the globalized world it became clear that new geopolitical system is full of unstable, unsuccessful and weak countries. The weakening of retaining mechanisms peculiar to bipolar world and conflict exacerbation between fundamental values of different countries caused a new wave of oppositions, terrorism,

Uncontrolled spread of nuclear, chemical and biological weapon, rebuilding of nuclear energetics in such unstable, unbalanced world significantly increases the threat to

Under such conditions the stabilization of world development becomes possible due to the international cooperation, investments and support to the weak countries and planet regions by the progress of new paradigm of "tolerant, peaceful world". In order to accomplish such global, stabilizing policy the recognized international organizations and scientific centers began to develop analytical instruments for the estimation of new developing tendencies of the world since the beginning of this century. The first attempt to control the tendencies of the global development was a series of reports "The world and the conflict" which were published in the University of Maryland State (USA) in 2001. Reports devoted to the global tendencies of world development were also published in many

The final aim of the development of new analytical instruments was the attempt to estimate the ability of different countries to act in such important dimensions as conflict, state

calculations: CO2 emission / population for each country correspondingly.

carbon dioxide emissions СО2 in metric tons per capita.

violence, territorial claims and irregular development.

sustainable development and global security of mankind.

countries such as Spain, Canada, and Germany etc.

**Threat 9. The state fragility (SF)**

Fig. 6. The structure of corruption according to the data of «Transparency International» (Transparency International, n.d.)

2003 was proclaimed as year of drinking water by the General Assembly of UNO. The period of 2005-2015 starting from the International Day of Water Recourses (22nd of March, 2005) was proclaimed as International decade of actions "Water for life".

The urban regions of underdeveloped countries have complicated situation where due to the rapid increase in the population the problem is exacerbating rapidly. These factors negatively influence the children health. According to the data of the WHO in the year 2005, 1,6 million children aged under 5 (4500 children per day approximately) died as a result of consumption of the dangerous water and inappropriate sanitary facilities.

The more the population of the planet increases, especially in underdeveloped countries, the more struggle for the control of drinking-water recourses will exacerbate another global threat for mankind.

The limited access to the drinking- water will be estimated by the inversed magnitude to the indicator of the access to drinking water (Human Development Report 2007/2008, n.d.).

#### **Threat 8. Global warming (GW)**

Global warming is the process of gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the Earth and World Ocean. According to conclusions of the International UNO Expert Group in Climate Control (UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation, n.d.) and National Academies of Sciences of the Group of Eight, from the end of 19th century the average temperature of the Earth has risen by 1°С and "the major part of warming observed during the last 50 years had been caused by human activities" preliminary by gas emissions which cause green-house effect (carbon dioxide, CO2) and methane (CH4).

Estimates obtained with the climate models and cited by the International UNO Expert Group in Climate Control show that the average temperature of the Earth can increase from one to several °С (in different regions of the world or in the Earth in average) in 1990-2080 years. The warming is expected to cause other climate changes such as an increase in the level of Word Ocean by 0,1-5 m. (probably, in 30-40 years), the appearance of new viruses and also the change of atmospheric condensation and their distribution. This may result in an increase in such natural disasters as floods, draughts, hurricanes etc; a decrease in harvests of agricultural crops, the emergence of new epidemic diseases and the extinction of many biological species. As a result of the control over decreasing natural resources the struggle not only between countries but also between separate groups of population can exacerbate. This process will cause new global conflicts. The influence of carbon dioxide emissions on the global warming is much higher than the corresponding influence of methane. That is why the danger of global warming will be estimated by the amount of carbon dioxide emissions СО2 in metric tons per capita.

Data about emissions is obtained by WDC-Ukraine from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC). It can be obtained with data extraction tool (http://wdc.org.ua/en/data). Original data is only the amount of Carbon (C) and calculation has been done to convert Carbon into Carbon Dioxide (CO2): values were multiplied by according coefficient (12+16\*2)/12. Per capita emission data is based on calculations: CO2 emission / population for each country correspondingly.

#### **Threat 9. The state fragility (SF)**

Sustainable Development – 216 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

Fig. 6. The structure of corruption according to the data of «Transparency International»

2005) was proclaimed as International decade of actions "Water for life".

consumption of the dangerous water and inappropriate sanitary facilities.

2003 was proclaimed as year of drinking water by the General Assembly of UNO. The period of 2005-2015 starting from the International Day of Water Recourses (22nd of March,

The urban regions of underdeveloped countries have complicated situation where due to the rapid increase in the population the problem is exacerbating rapidly. These factors negatively influence the children health. According to the data of the WHO in the year 2005, 1,6 million children aged under 5 (4500 children per day approximately) died as a result of

The more the population of the planet increases, especially in underdeveloped countries, the more struggle for the control of drinking-water recourses will exacerbate another global

The limited access to the drinking- water will be estimated by the inversed magnitude to the indicator of the access to drinking water (Human Development Report 2007/2008, n.d.).

Global warming is the process of gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the Earth and World Ocean. According to conclusions of the International UNO Expert Group in Climate Control (UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation, n.d.) and National Academies of Sciences of the Group of Eight, from the end of 19th century the average temperature of the Earth has risen by 1°С and "the major part of warming observed during the last 50 years had been caused by human activities" preliminary by gas emissions which cause green-house effect (carbon dioxide, CO2) and methane (CH4).

Estimates obtained with the climate models and cited by the International UNO Expert Group in Climate Control show that the average temperature of the Earth can increase from

(Transparency International, n.d.)

threat for mankind.

**Threat 8. Global warming (GW)**

After the end of Cold War and Soviet Union collapse (1991) the world has entered the era of new dramatic geopolitical processes. The following 18 years were marked with the blistering growth of globalization. Technical revolution in the field of informationcommunication technologies has made the world policy more transparent and led to an increase in changes influence which occurred in one region and affected the other parts of the planet. Due to these new qualities of the globalized world it became clear that new geopolitical system is full of unstable, unsuccessful and weak countries. The weakening of retaining mechanisms peculiar to bipolar world and conflict exacerbation between fundamental values of different countries caused a new wave of oppositions, terrorism, violence, territorial claims and irregular development.

Uncontrolled spread of nuclear, chemical and biological weapon, rebuilding of nuclear energetics in such unstable, unbalanced world significantly increases the threat to sustainable development and global security of mankind.

Under such conditions the stabilization of world development becomes possible due to the international cooperation, investments and support to the weak countries and planet regions by the progress of new paradigm of "tolerant, peaceful world". In order to accomplish such global, stabilizing policy the recognized international organizations and scientific centers began to develop analytical instruments for the estimation of new developing tendencies of the world since the beginning of this century. The first attempt to control the tendencies of the global development was a series of reports "The world and the conflict" which were published in the University of Maryland State (USA) in 2001. Reports devoted to the global tendencies of world development were also published in many countries such as Spain, Canada, and Germany etc.

The final aim of the development of new analytical instruments was the attempt to estimate the ability of different countries to act in such important dimensions as conflict, state

Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life 219

As consequences of the natural disasters usually make a long-term influence on the country, gradually disappearing only with time, the final value of vulnerability index on the natural disasters will be defined as Exponential Weighted Moving Average, EWMA, which has the

> 1 , ,

*DisastersAffected*

. (8)

was chosen by the experts on the basis of the estimation of

*Tr = ES,BB,GINI,GD,CM,CP,WA,GW,SF,ND <sup>j</sup>* (9)

*e E*

*year state year t state*

the average time and level of the impact of disasters on the country. For convenience of calculations only the last significant *Tmax = 25* years will be considered. At the same time

The values of vulnerability index for the countries to the natural disasters during 1995-2010

The total impact of the total global treats to different countries and their groups will be determined by the component of human security *Csl being the part of index of sustainable* 

Let us formalize this in the following way. Let every **j** country corresponds to the vector In

the coordinates which characterize the degree of the development of the relevant threats,

*ES is a global decrease in energy security* **(**determined by the index of energy security calculated

*ВB* is misbalanced biological capacity of the Earth and needs of the mankind in the biosphere

*GINI is growing inequality between people and countries of the Earth (measured by* Gini-index which changes within the range from 1 to 100; where 0 is a minimum inequality, 100 is

*GD* is the spread of global infectious diseases (measured by the total quantity of the people

*CM* is child mortality (measured by the number of children who died under 5 per 100

*CP* is the growth of corruption (measured by the index of corruption perception varying within the range from 0 to 10; where 0 is a maximum corruption level and 10 – minimum

*WA* I s the *limited access to drinking-water* (the percentage of the population which has no

*GW is global warming* (measured by the quantity of carbon dioxide emissions in metric tones);

in terms of changing world's demography (measured in global hectares per person);

[millions per year] died from diarrhea diseases, AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria);

**2.1.3 Determination of the aggregate impact of the total global threats on different** 

 

max

the significance of time series will amount to max ln(1 ) 0,0007525 10 3 *<sup>T</sup>*

*t T*

1 1 (1 )*<sup>t</sup>*

were calculated according to the given methodology.

correspondence with each country **j** a vector

potential smoothing factor

The value of the coefficient

**countries and their groups** 

*development in formula* **(1).** 

where:

newborn)

corruption level);

access to drinking-water);

by the formula 7);

maximum inequality);

*ND*

0,25

administration, economic and social development. Among all these instruments "The index of ability of the peaceful society development" that belongs to the series of reports "The world and conflict", "Indicators of the world management" developed by the World Bank and "Index of unsuccessfulness of the countries" developed by The Fund of Peace can be mentioned.

For the quantitative estimation of the sustainable development threat in our research the State Fragility Index will be used (The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, n.d.). This index is calculated as average arithmetic value between political and economical instability of the country. Data concerning these values are given in the paper (Marshall, 2008).

#### **Threat 10. Natural Disasters (ND)**

*Natural disasters are the threat which is not so directly dependent on the human activity comparing to the other threats mentioned above. But, taking into account last reports of the international organizations on climate changes (*World Economic Forum, *2010) we cannot state that a human being is beside the point of the dynamics of the natural disasters.* For the quantitative estimation of the degree of vulnerability of the world countries to the natural disasters the index of vulnerability to natural cataclysms was developed. The data of the International Disasters Database (Kotlyakov, 2001) and the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) of the World Health Organization (WHO) are used for its calculation.

Experts of UNO and WDC-Ukraine determined 6 major natural disasters (in the order of danger decrease): draughts, floods, hurricanes, extreme temperatures, earthquakes and tsunami (UNDP, n.d.; Aivazian, 1983).

#### **Index is calculated as follows:**

#### **1. The summarized total of people suffered from the natural cataclysms in a year in a country is calculated***:*

, , , = + *DisastersAffected DroughtAffected FloodAffected year state year state year state*

, , , *StormAffected ExtremeTemperatureAffected EarthquakeAffected year state year state year state*

, ,, *TsunamiA year state ffected year state* .

#### **2. Then the summarized total of people affected DisastersAffected is divided by the amount of population in the country and in the given year***:*

$$\text{DisastersAffected}\_{\text{year\\_state}}^{\prime} = \frac{\text{DisastersAffected}\_{\text{year\\_state}}}{\text{Population}\_{\text{year\\_state}}}, \quad \forall year\text{\\_state} \quad \dots$$

#### **3. After that the obtained data are normalized by the logistic norm:**

$$\left\| \left\| \text{Disaeters} \text{Affected}\_{\text{year},\text{ state}}' \right\| = \left\| \begin{array}{l} \text{Dissators} \text{Affected}\_{\text{year},\text{ state}}' - \text{M} \left[ \text{Dissators} \text{Affected}' \right]\_{\text{year}} \\ \text{s} \left[ \text{DissatesAfterted}' \right]\_{\text{year}} \\ \text{} \end{array} \right\| \text{-} \right\| $$

*where M[.], s[.] – are approximate average and standard deviation values respectively per year in all countries.*

Sustainable Development – 218 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

administration, economic and social development. Among all these instruments "The index of ability of the peaceful society development" that belongs to the series of reports "The world and conflict", "Indicators of the world management" developed by the World Bank and "Index of unsuccessfulness of the countries" developed by The Fund of Peace can be

For the quantitative estimation of the sustainable development threat in our research the State Fragility Index will be used (The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, n.d.). This index is calculated as average arithmetic value between political and economical instability of

*Natural disasters are the threat which is not so directly dependent on the human activity comparing to the other threats mentioned above. But, taking into account last reports of the international organizations on climate changes (*World Economic Forum, *2010) we cannot state that a human being is beside the point of the dynamics of the natural disasters.* For the quantitative estimation of the degree of vulnerability of the world countries to the natural disasters the index of vulnerability to natural cataclysms was developed. The data of the International Disasters Database (Kotlyakov, 2001) and the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

Experts of UNO and WDC-Ukraine determined 6 major natural disasters (in the order of danger decrease): draughts, floods, hurricanes, extreme temperatures, earthquakes and

**1. The summarized total of people suffered from the natural cataclysms in a year in a** 

, , , *StormAffected ExtremeTemperatureAffected EarthquakeAffected year state year state year state*

**2. Then the summarized total of people affected DisastersAffected is divided by the** 

,

, 1 ,

*where M[.], s[.] – are approximate average and standard deviation values respectively per year in all* 

, , *year state*

 ,

*DisastersAffected M DisastersAffected*

*year state year year*

1

,

*Population* .

*year state*

the country. Data concerning these values are given in the paper (Marshall, 2008).

(CRED) of the World Health Organization (WHO) are used for its calculation.

, , , = + *DisastersAffected DroughtAffected FloodAffected year state year state year state*

**amount of population in the country and in the given year***:* 

*DisastersAffected DisastersAffected year state*

*s DisastersAffected DisastersAffectedyear state <sup>e</sup>*

**3. After that the obtained data are normalized by the logistic norm:** 

mentioned.

**Threat 10. Natural Disasters (ND)**

tsunami (UNDP, n.d.; Aivazian, 1983).

, ,, *TsunamiA year state ffected year state* .

,

*year state*

**Index is calculated as follows:** 

**country is calculated***:* 

*countries.*

As consequences of the natural disasters usually make a long-term influence on the country, gradually disappearing only with time, the final value of vulnerability index on the natural disasters will be defined as Exponential Weighted Moving Average, EWMA, which has the potential smoothing factor 0,25

$$\text{ND}\_{\text{year},\text{state}} = 1 - \alpha \cdot \sum\_{1 \le t \le T\_{\text{max}}} (1 - \alpha)^{t-1} \cdot \left\| \text{Disassers} \text{Affected}\_{\text{year} - t, \text{state}}^{\prime} \right\|\,. \tag{8}$$

The value of the coefficient was chosen by the experts on the basis of the estimation of the average time and level of the impact of disasters on the country. For convenience of calculations only the last significant *Tmax = 25* years will be considered. At the same time the significance of time series will amount to max ln(1 ) 0,0007525 10 3 *<sup>T</sup> e E* 

The values of vulnerability index for the countries to the natural disasters during 1995-2010 were calculated according to the given methodology.

#### **2.1.3 Determination of the aggregate impact of the total global threats on different countries and their groups**

The total impact of the total global treats to different countries and their groups will be determined by the component of human security *Csl being the part of index of sustainable development in formula* **(1).** 

Let us formalize this in the following way. Let every **j** country corresponds to the vector In correspondence with each country **j** a vector

$$\vec{Tr}\_{\vec{j}} = \left( \text{ES}\_{\text{'}} \text{BB}\_{\text{'}} \text{GINI}\_{\text{'}} \text{GD}\_{\text{'}} \text{CM}\_{\text{'}} \text{CP}\_{\text{'}} \text{VVA}\_{\text{'}} \text{GW}\_{\text{'}} \text{SF}\_{\text{'}} \text{ND} \right) \tag{9}$$

the coordinates which characterize the degree of the development of the relevant threats, where:

*ES is a global decrease in energy security* **(**determined by the index of energy security calculated by the formula 7);

*ВB* is misbalanced biological capacity of the Earth and needs of the mankind in the biosphere in terms of changing world's demography (measured in global hectares per person);

*GINI is growing inequality between people and countries of the Earth (measured by* Gini-index which changes within the range from 1 to 100; where 0 is a minimum inequality, 100 is maximum inequality);

*GD* is the spread of global infectious diseases (measured by the total quantity of the people [millions per year] died from diarrhea diseases, AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria);

*CM* is child mortality (measured by the number of children who died under 5 per 100 newborn)

*CP* is the growth of corruption (measured by the index of corruption perception varying within the range from 0 to 10; where 0 is a maximum corruption level and 10 – minimum corruption level);

*WA* I s the *limited access to drinking-water* (the percentage of the population which has no access to drinking-water);

*GW is global warming* (measured by the quantity of carbon dioxide emissions in metric tones);

Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life 221

in the form of human life security component *Csl* as the component of sustainable development index in the formula (1) (chapters 2.1.2, 2.1.3). At the final third stage we will calculate the value of quaternion **{***Q***}** according to the formula (1) as the quantitative dimension of sustainable development which considers the human life security and quality

**3.1.1 The estimation of human life quality as index of the sustainable development**  Calculation of the life quality component *Cqt* of sustainable development and the level of its harmonization *G = 1-α* will be performed with the use of the mathematical model *SDGM* (chapter 2.1) and global indices (tables 1 and 2).The initial data for the *SDGM* model will be taken from the annual reports of such international organizations as UNO, Heritage Foundation, World Economic Forum, International Living, Environmental Law and Policy

In order to perform comparative global analysis of the life quality component of the sustainable development let us choose five countries of the world: Countries leading by the quality of life component; group of Eight (G8); the Group of giant rapidly developing countries including Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC countries)*;* the group of post-

It should be mentioned that owing to its geographical position and economic status Russia enters the 2nd, 3rd and 4th group simultaneously, while Germany, France and Great Britain

**1. Ten leading countries** in the year 2010 by the life quality component of sustainable development are presented in table 3. This group includes 9 European countries and 1 country of Oceania. Considering the results of the research it can be seen that countries which in 2005-2010 were 5 world leaders by the index of their sustainable development were not superpowers with dominating ideologies and economies. Basic industries of such

> **Economic dimension Iec**

**CLUSTER 1(''VERY HIGH'')**  *CHE* Switzerland 1,498 0,872 0,917 0,806 0,947 *SWE* Sweden 1,398 0,796 0,895 0,730 0,917 *NOR* Norway 1,379 0,731 0,847 0,810 0,939 *NZL* New Zealand 1,365 0,816 0,739 0,810 0,956 *ISL* Iceland 1,357 0,730 0,942 0,678 0,855 *AUT* Austria 1,343 0,751 0,810 0,765 0,967 *FIN* Finland 1,342 0,804 0,761 0,760 0,974 *DEU* Germany 1,338 0,770 0,736 0,812 0,960 *FRA* France 1,320 0,664 0,812 0,810 0,909 *GBR* Great Britain 1,319 0,803 0,753 0,729 0,960 Table 3. Ten leading countries according to the life quality component of sustainable

**Ecological dimension Ie** 

**Socioinstitutional dimensionIs**  **Harmonization degree G** 

Center of Yale University, the University of Columbia (USA).

**Life quality component Cql** 

socialistic countries; the countries of Africa.

belong to the 1st and 2nd groups.

**Cql ISO Country** 

development, 2010

of life.

**Rate**

*SF is state fragility* (measured by State Fragility Index (The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, n.d.), which changes in the range from 0 to 23, where 0 - minimum fragility; 23 – maximum fragility);

*ND is* index of vulnerability to natural disasters (calculated by the formula (8)).

The source data for each danger are normalized by the formula (4) and in the case of necessity converted for the maximum threat to correspond to 0 and minimum threat to correspond to 1. Thus, after normalization the more each threat approaches its zero value it becomes the most "likely to occur" in each specific country. But the more its value approaches 1 it becomes more 'unlikely to happen' in that country.

After the normalization for all global threats, the normalized vector is obtained:

$$\vec{Tr}\_{\vec{j}}^{0} = \left( \mathbf{ES}^{0}, \mathbf{BB}^{0}, \mathbf{GINI}^{0}, \mathbf{GD}^{0}, \mathbf{CM}^{0}, \mathbf{CP}^{0}, \mathbf{WA}^{0}, \mathbf{GW}^{0}, \mathbf{SF}^{0}, \mathbf{ND}^{0} \right) \; , \tag{10}$$

Let us calculate the value for each component of life security *Csb, which is norm of Minskoski, which* is formed of normalized threats according to *P* = 3, *n* = 10:

$$\left\|C\_{sl} = \left\|\vec{Tr}\_{j}\right\| = \sqrt[3]{\sum\_{l=1}^{n} \left(\vec{Tr}\_{jl}^{0}\right)^{3}}.\tag{11}$$

It should be mentioned that in practice the parameter P is mostly chosen to be equal 2. An increase in this parameter increases the model sensitivity for each part of the vector and vice versa its decrease smoothes (reduces) this sensitivity. That is why on the basis of the data analysis of the mentioned threats it is advisable to enlarge parameter P from the value 2 to 3, to increase sensitivity of the models to the threats being insignificant by their quantitative values if compared to the other models but being important by their substantial values.

Let us also introduce the value of vulnerability of the country to the total of the global threats which is the inverse value to the component of the life securityy *Сsl*:

$$I\_{vul} = \sqrt[3]{10} - C\_{sl}.\tag{12}$$

Thus, the SDGM model (1-12) combines a lot of indicators and indexes included in it by mathematical correlations making their algebraic convolution. This model combines the data of different nature i.e. economic, ecological and socio-institutional one. Thus, it shows the reverse connection and balance between three integral spheres of society development. With the help of this model it is possible to obtain the numerical value for every dimension of the quality of life and also its single matrix that considers all three dimensions together.

#### **3. The mathematical simulation of sustainable development processes**

#### **3.1 Computation for general simulation**

The mathematical simulation of sustainable development processes can be performed in three stages. At the first stage we will perform the estimation of life quality dimension *Cql* as the component of sustainable development index in the formula (1) using Sustainable Development Gauging Matrix (SDGM) (chapter 2.1.). At the second stage we will calculate the total impact of global threats totality on different countries and world countries groups Sustainable Development – 220 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

*SF is state fragility* (measured by State Fragility Index (The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, n.d.), which changes in the range from 0 to 23, where 0 - minimum

The source data for each danger are normalized by the formula (4) and in the case of necessity converted for the maximum threat to correspond to 0 and minimum threat to correspond to 1. Thus, after normalization the more each threat approaches its zero value it becomes the most "likely to occur" in each specific country. But the more its value

0 00 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 ,, , , ,, , ,, *Tr = ES BB GINI GD CM CP WA GW SF ND <sup>j</sup>*

Let us calculate the value for each component of life security *Csb, which is norm of Minskoski,* 

*sl j jl l=*

It should be mentioned that in practice the parameter P is mostly chosen to be equal 2. An increase in this parameter increases the model sensitivity for each part of the vector and vice versa its decrease smoothes (reduces) this sensitivity. That is why on the basis of the data analysis of the mentioned threats it is advisable to enlarge parameter P from the value 2 to 3, to increase sensitivity of the models to the threats being insignificant by their quantitative values if compared to the other models but being important by their substantial values.

Let us also introduce the value of vulnerability of the country to the total of the global

Thus, the SDGM model (1-12) combines a lot of indicators and indexes included in it by mathematical correlations making their algebraic convolution. This model combines the data of different nature i.e. economic, ecological and socio-institutional one. Thus, it shows the reverse connection and balance between three integral spheres of society development. With the help of this model it is possible to obtain the numerical value for every dimension of the quality of life and also its single matrix that considers all three dimensions together.

**3. The mathematical simulation of sustainable development processes** 

The mathematical simulation of sustainable development processes can be performed in three stages. At the first stage we will perform the estimation of life quality dimension *Cql* as the component of sustainable development index in the formula (1) using Sustainable Development Gauging Matrix (SDGM) (chapter 2.1.). At the second stage we will calculate the total impact of global threats totality on different countries and world countries groups

**3.1 Computation for general simulation** 

threats which is the inverse value to the component of the life securityy *Сsl*:

, (10)

<sup>3</sup> <sup>0</sup>

*C Tr = Tr* (11)

<sup>3</sup> 10 . *vul sl I C* (12)

1 3 . *n*

*ND is* index of vulnerability to natural disasters (calculated by the formula (8)).

After the normalization for all global threats, the normalized vector is obtained:

approaches 1 it becomes more 'unlikely to happen' in that country.

*which* is formed of normalized threats according to *P* = 3, *n* = 10:

fragility; 23 – maximum fragility);

in the form of human life security component *Csl* as the component of sustainable development index in the formula (1) (chapters 2.1.2, 2.1.3). At the final third stage we will calculate the value of quaternion **{***Q***}** according to the formula (1) as the quantitative dimension of sustainable development which considers the human life security and quality of life.

#### **3.1.1 The estimation of human life quality as index of the sustainable development**

Calculation of the life quality component *Cqt* of sustainable development and the level of its harmonization *G = 1-α* will be performed with the use of the mathematical model *SDGM* (chapter 2.1) and global indices (tables 1 and 2).The initial data for the *SDGM* model will be taken from the annual reports of such international organizations as UNO, Heritage Foundation, World Economic Forum, International Living, Environmental Law and Policy Center of Yale University, the University of Columbia (USA).

In order to perform comparative global analysis of the life quality component of the sustainable development let us choose five countries of the world: Countries leading by the quality of life component; group of Eight (G8); the Group of giant rapidly developing countries including Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC countries)*;* the group of postsocialistic countries; the countries of Africa.

It should be mentioned that owing to its geographical position and economic status Russia enters the 2nd, 3rd and 4th group simultaneously, while Germany, France and Great Britain belong to the 1st and 2nd groups.

**1. Ten leading countries** in the year 2010 by the life quality component of sustainable development are presented in table 3. This group includes 9 European countries and 1 country of Oceania. Considering the results of the research it can be seen that countries which in 2005-2010 were 5 world leaders by the index of their sustainable development were not superpowers with dominating ideologies and economies. Basic industries of such


Table 3. Ten leading countries according to the life quality component of sustainable development, 2010

Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life 223

**3. BRIC-country group** (Brazil, Russia, India and China) is characterized by rapid increase in their economies development that annually reaches 8-12 %. This is provided both due to the growth of innovational, highly-technological components of the development of these countries and by intensive use of their own natural and environmental resources, involvement of cheap labor, giant consumption of organic types of fuel (oil, gas and coil).

In spite of the rapid economic growth these countries hold from the 48th (Brazil) to 85th (India) positions in the rating table by the life quality component of sustainable

This can be explained by the low level of harmonization of sustainable development for this group of countries at the expense of prior economic development and at the same time substantial backlogs in environmental and social spheres. The countries of this group are characterized by the decrease in ecological results, increase in inequality between people, high corruption levels that tend to increase. These and other factors of ecological and social character restrain harmonized sustainable development of the group of BRIC-countries.

> **Economic dimension Iec**

federation 0,740 0,358 0,497 0,427 0,868

48 *BRA* Brazil 0,902 0,424 0,544 0,594 0,864

79 *CHN* China 0,647 0,459 0,255 0,406 0,773 85 *IND* India 0,572 0,418 0,245 0,328 0,789 Table 5. Group of BRIC countries according to the life quality component of sustainable

**4. Post-socialist countries** (Table 6) turned out "scattered" from the 29th to 99th positions of the rating table by the life quality component in 2010. The leaders in this group were the countries of the Central Europe and Baltic, which outstripped the countries of the East

For the countries of this group it is not current position by the life quality component of sustainable development that is of great importance but the dynamics of the qualitative changes and differentiation scale that have been observed for the last 15-20 years. From the approximately equal initial conditions in the late 80-ies of the last century, the countries of this group have passed through very different political, economic and mental changes for historically short period of time. The best examples of successful development were shown by the countries of the Baltic, Central and Eastern Europe, and the worst ones were shown by the countries of the Central Asia and North-Caucasian countries of the former USSR.

**5. African countries** listed by the life quality component of sustainable development are shown in Table 7. Except for South Africa, Tunis and Algeria, they belong to the poorest

countries in the world, the GDP per person of which is lower than 5000 dollars.

**Ecological dimension Ie** 

**Socioinstitutional dimensionIs**  **Harmonization level G** 

**Life quality componentC ql** 

development (Table 5).

**Cql ISO Country** 

<sup>69</sup>*RUS* Russian

development, 2010

Europe and Middle Asia.

**CLUSTER 4 (''LOW'')** 

**CLUSTER 3 (''AVERAGE'')** 

**Rate**

countries are not oriented towards the usage of significant natural recourses and cheap workforce. The characteristic feature of these countries is domination of intellectual and highly-technological labor in the additional cost of their economies. All these countries are the world leaders by the ecological dimension of the world. Their innovative activity is of high level; over 4% of their GNP is spent for research and development.

Since the beginning of 1990-s they have been actively working in order to implement the model of the 'environmental economy' and knowledge-based economy. They started largescale production of new knowledge, 'ecosystem' products and services and in the course of the following few years they included social assets into their strategy as another productive factor of the development. That is why now these counties are the countries with wellharmonized life quality components of the sustainable development i.e. economic, ecological and social ones. These countries have become the closest to the model of the 'smart' society which is the highest form of the developed, knowledge-based society.

**2. The Group of Eight countries** (table 4), in the year 2010 takes from 8th to 24th positions in the list by the quality of life component in sustainable development (except Russia).


Table 4. The Group of Eight according to the component of the life quality of sustainable development, 2010

Although they have leading GNP indices in the world they are still on 20-30 places in the world list by quality characteristics of their economic, renewable environmental resources and development of their social assets.

The only exception in this group is Russia (69th position) which being formally included into the Group of Eight is at the same time "excluded" frotm it by the qualitative characteristics. Dependence of Russian economy on the energy sector is extremely high. This field provides the country with almost 25% of GDP and 50% of national export that makes Russia rather sensitive to and dependent on global market conditions. These results in narrowing the diversification of economic interests of Russia, which in its turn, provides aggressive statemonopoly foreign policy of the country in energy field.

Sustainable Development – 222 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

countries are not oriented towards the usage of significant natural recourses and cheap workforce. The characteristic feature of these countries is domination of intellectual and highly-technological labor in the additional cost of their economies. All these countries are the world leaders by the ecological dimension of the world. Their innovative activity is of high

Since the beginning of 1990-s they have been actively working in order to implement the model of the 'environmental economy' and knowledge-based economy. They started largescale production of new knowledge, 'ecosystem' products and services and in the course of the following few years they included social assets into their strategy as another productive factor of the development. That is why now these counties are the countries with wellharmonized life quality components of the sustainable development i.e. economic, ecological and social ones. These countries have become the closest to the model of the

'smart' society which is the highest form of the developed, knowledge-based society.

the list by the quality of life component in sustainable development (except Russia).

**Life quality component Cql** 

**2. The Group of Eight countries** (table 4), in the year 2010 takes from 8th to 24th positions in

**Economic dimension Iec** 

*DEU* Germany 1,338 0,770 0,736 0,812 0,960 *FRA* France 1,320 0,664 0,812 0,810 0,909 *GBR* Great Britain 1,319 0,803 0,753 0,729 0,960 *CAN* Canada 1,293 0,845 0,608 0,786 0,866 *JPN* Japan 1,290 0,789 0,725 0,719 0,957 *USA* The USA 1,268 0,851 0,546 0,801 0,819

24 *ITA* Italy 1,169 0,525 0,734 0,767 0,843

Table 4. The Group of Eight according to the component of the life quality of sustainable

Although they have leading GNP indices in the world they are still on 20-30 places in the world list by quality characteristics of their economic, renewable environmental resources

The only exception in this group is Russia (69th position) which being formally included into the Group of Eight is at the same time "excluded" frotm it by the qualitative characteristics. Dependence of Russian economy on the energy sector is extremely high. This field provides the country with almost 25% of GDP and 50% of national export that makes Russia rather sensitive to and dependent on global market conditions. These results in narrowing the diversification of economic interests of Russia, which in its turn, provides aggressive state-

Federation 0,740 0,358 0,497 0,427 0,868

**Ecological dimension Ie** 

**Socialinstitutional dimensionIs**  **Harmonization degree G** 

level; over 4% of their GNP is spent for research and development.

**Rate**

**Cql ISO Country** 

**CLUSTER 2 (''HIGH'')** 

<sup>69</sup>*RUS* Russian

development, 2010

**CLUSTER 3 (''AVERAGE'')** 

and development of their social assets.

monopoly foreign policy of the country in energy field.

**CLUSTER 1 ("VERY HIGH'')** 

**3. BRIC-country group** (Brazil, Russia, India and China) is characterized by rapid increase in their economies development that annually reaches 8-12 %. This is provided both due to the growth of innovational, highly-technological components of the development of these countries and by intensive use of their own natural and environmental resources, involvement of cheap labor, giant consumption of organic types of fuel (oil, gas and coil).

In spite of the rapid economic growth these countries hold from the 48th (Brazil) to 85th (India) positions in the rating table by the life quality component of sustainable development (Table 5).

This can be explained by the low level of harmonization of sustainable development for this group of countries at the expense of prior economic development and at the same time substantial backlogs in environmental and social spheres. The countries of this group are characterized by the decrease in ecological results, increase in inequality between people, high corruption levels that tend to increase. These and other factors of ecological and social character restrain harmonized sustainable development of the group of BRIC-countries.


Table 5. Group of BRIC countries according to the life quality component of sustainable development, 2010

**4. Post-socialist countries** (Table 6) turned out "scattered" from the 29th to 99th positions of the rating table by the life quality component in 2010. The leaders in this group were the countries of the Central Europe and Baltic, which outstripped the countries of the East Europe and Middle Asia.

For the countries of this group it is not current position by the life quality component of sustainable development that is of great importance but the dynamics of the qualitative changes and differentiation scale that have been observed for the last 15-20 years. From the approximately equal initial conditions in the late 80-ies of the last century, the countries of this group have passed through very different political, economic and mental changes for historically short period of time. The best examples of successful development were shown by the countries of the Baltic, Central and Eastern Europe, and the worst ones were shown by the countries of the Central Asia and North-Caucasian countries of the former USSR.

**5. African countries** listed by the life quality component of sustainable development are shown in Table 7. Except for South Africa, Tunis and Algeria, they belong to the poorest countries in the world, the GDP per person of which is lower than 5000 dollars.

Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life 225

Eight (table 4) it is possible to state that in the year 2010 as compared to the year 2006 the gap between the developed countries of the world and the countries of Africa increases both by standard of living (GDP per capita) and by the life quality component of the sustainable development. This is an alarming symptom due to the increase in inequality in the world, spreading of global diseases, a growing number of global and regional conflicts, the growth

> **Economic dimension Iec**

*<sup>M</sup>*Namibia 0,792 0,472 0,455 0,445 0,975

*<sup>G</sup>*Madagascar 0,508 0,391 0,258 0,231 0,767

Africa 0,746 0,532 0,286 0,474 0,760

55 *TUN* Tunis 0,835 0,509 0,483 0,455 0,954 57 *DZA* Algeria 0,796 0,393 0,628 0,358 0,745

64 *MAR* Morocco 0,774 0,434 0,591 0,315 0,753

71 *EGY* Egypt 0,734 0,433 0,514 0,324 0,818 76 *BWA* Botswana 0,668 0,579 0,150 0,429 0,568

*KEN* Kenya 0,508 0,354 0,296 0,229 0,828 *UGA* Uganda 0,496 0,393 0,268 0,198 0,726 *GMB* Gambia 0,473 0,372 0,278 0,170 0,706 *MWI* Malawi 0,462 0,281 0,298 0,221 0,878 *ZMB* Zambia 0,453 0,335 0,224 0,225 0,803 *TZA* Tanzania 0,450 0,353 0,237 0,189 0,742 *MOZ* Mozambique 0,414 0,276 0,293 0,147 0,732 *SEN* Senegal 0,411 0,339 0,161 0,212 0,693 *BEN* Benin 0,380 0,315 0,132 0,213 0,672 *NGA* Nigeria 0,375 0,343 0,138 0,168 0,604 *CMR* Cameroun 0,371 0,274 0,190 0,179 0,804 *ETH* Ethiopia 0,323 0,253 0,171 0,135 0,743 *ZWE* Zimbabwe 0,227 0,073 0,236 0,084 0,482

Table 7. The countries of Africa ranked by the life quality component of sustainable

**3.1.2 The estimation of human life security as the component of sustainable** 

Using the method of estimation of the total impact of the global threats totality on different countries and world countries groups represented in chapter 2.1.2. (formulae 7-12) let us calculate the life security component *Сsl* for every country considered in this research. On

**Ecological dimension Ie** 

**Socialinstitutional dimensionIs**  **Harmonization degree G** 

**Life quality component Cql** 

of corruption and crime.

**Cql ISO Country** 

**CLUSTER 4(''LOW'')**  <sup>68</sup>*ZAF* Southern

**CLUSTER 5 (''VERY LOW'')** 

**CLUSTER 3 (''AVERAGE'')** 

**Rate**

<sup>60</sup>*NA*

<sup>89</sup>*MD*

development, 2010

**development index** 

According to the data of the International Organization "Transparency International", these countries have the highest levels of corruption, and according to the World Health Organization they have the highest levels of spreading global diseases, such as AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. In 2010 the characteristics of these countries (except Tunis) greatly decreased in comparison with the previous years, not only by the life quality component in general, but also by all three dimensions of this component. The positive tendency of the sustainable development of Tunis can be explained by significant improvement of innovation climate especially in the sphere of information technologies after the UNO World Summit on Information Society was held in this country in 2005.


Table 6. Post-socialist countries ranked by the quality-of-life component of sustainable development, 2010

On the whole, comparing the group of African countries (table 7) with the leading countries by the life quality component of the sustainable development (table 3) and the Group of Sustainable Development – 224 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

According to the data of the International Organization "Transparency International", these countries have the highest levels of corruption, and according to the World Health Organization they have the highest levels of spreading global diseases, such as AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. In 2010 the characteristics of these countries (except Tunis) greatly decreased in comparison with the previous years, not only by the life quality component in general, but also by all three dimensions of this component. The positive tendency of the sustainable development of Tunis can be explained by significant improvement of innovation climate especially in the sphere of information technologies after the UNO

> **Economic dimension Iec**

*SVK* Slovakia 1,176 0,611 0,757 0,669 0,912 *LTU* Lithuania 1,125 0,615 0,646 0,686 0,955 *EST* Estonia 1,121 0,703 0,553 0,686 0,896 *HUN* Hungary 1,112 0,553 0,662 0,711 0,898 *LVA* Latvia 1,095 0,526 0,724 0,646 0,872 *SVN* Slovenia 1,083 0,591 0,577 0,707 0,907 *POL* Poland 1,009 0,535 0,538 0,675 0,888 *HRV* Croatia 1,000 0,435 0,653 0,645 0,827 *ALB* Albania 0,984 0,470 0,705 0,529 0,826

*ROU* Rumania 0,992 0,510 0,620 0,589 0,920 *BGR* Bulgaria 0,932 0,472 0,525 0,617 0,890 *ARM* Armenia 0,817 0,506 0,480 0,430 0,933 *AZE* Azerbaijan 0,761 0,474 0,451 0,394 0,923

72 *KAZ* Kazakhstan 0,720 0,464 0,413 0,370 0,907 73 *UKR* Ukraine 0,714 0,294 0,432 0,511 0,786

78 *KGZ* Kyrgyzstan 0,653 0,359 0,463 0,308 0,830 83 *MDA* Moldova 0,619 0,146 0,445 0,481 0,602

92 *TJK* Tajikistan 0,493 0,264 0,295 0,296 0,948 99 *UZB* Uzbekistan 0,411 0,247 0,160 0,305 0,755 Table 6. Post-socialist countries ranked by the quality-of-life component of sustainable

On the whole, comparing the group of African countries (table 7) with the leading countries by the life quality component of the sustainable development (table 3) and the Group of

Federation 0,740 0,358 0,497 0,427 0,868

Herzegovina 0,707 0,318 0,383 0,523 0,794

Republic 1,214 0,669 0,709 0,725 0,967

**Ecological dimension Ie** 

**Socioinstitutional dimension Is**  **Harmonization level G** 

World Summit on Information Society was held in this country in 2005.

**Life quality component Cql** 

**Rate**

**Cql ISO Country** 

**CLUSTER 2 (''HIGH'')**  <sup>21</sup>*CZE* Czech

**CLUSTER 3 (''AVERAGE'')**

<sup>69</sup>*RUS* Russian

**CLUSTER 4 (''LOW'')**

<sup>74</sup>*BIH* Bosnia and

**CLUSTER 5 (''VERY LOW'')**

development, 2010

Eight (table 4) it is possible to state that in the year 2010 as compared to the year 2006 the gap between the developed countries of the world and the countries of Africa increases both by standard of living (GDP per capita) and by the life quality component of the sustainable development. This is an alarming symptom due to the increase in inequality in the world, spreading of global diseases, a growing number of global and regional conflicts, the growth of corruption and crime.


Table 7. The countries of Africa ranked by the life quality component of sustainable development, 2010

#### **3.1.2 The estimation of human life security as the component of sustainable development index**

Using the method of estimation of the total impact of the global threats totality on different countries and world countries groups represented in chapter 2.1.2. (formulae 7-12) let us calculate the life security component *Сsl* for every country considered in this research. On the basis of the calculation of the standard value of Minkovski threats vector *Csl*= *Trj* let us introduce for every *j* country the correlation between the clusters of the countries:

$$\left\|K\_{k}\prec K\_{j}\right\|\Longleftrightarrow\left\|\vec{T}r\_{k}\right\|\leq\left\|\vec{T}r\_{j}\right\|.\tag{13}$$

Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life 227

**Rate Csl ISO Country Life security component Csl Biological balance, BB Child mortality, CM Corruption perception, CP Energy safety , ES Global diseases, GD Inequalities between countries and people, GINI Global warming, GW Natural disasters, ND State instability, SI Limited access to potable water, WA** 

*CAN* Canada 1,478 0,916 0,663 0,874 0,627 0,642 0,615 0,178 0,575 0,635 0,670 *USA* The USA 1,368 0,244 0,656 0,801 0,908 0,634 0,448 0,128 0,505 0,619 0,654 *DEU* Germany 1,315 0,296 0,674 0,835 0,328 0,642 0,693 0,357 0,575 0,569 0,670 *FRA* France 1,312 0,374 0,676 0,754 0,304 0,639 0,611 0,476 0,571 0,701 0,670 *JPN* Japan 1,281 0,244 0,679 0,815 0,282 0,632 0,750 0,345 0,570 0,146 0,670

43 *ITA* Italy 1,210 0,255 0,678 0,485 0,306 0,644 0,545 0,411 0,575 0,671 0,670

Table 9. The G8 countries ranked by the life security component of sustainable development,

**Corruption perception, CP** 

15 *BRA* Brazil 1,353 0,865 0,576 0,418 0,695 0,574 0,202 0,628 0,549 0,720 0,621

79 *CHN* China 1,115 0,431 0,584 0,407 0,713 0,605 0,433 0,533 0,145 0,472 0,478 83 *IND* India 1,100 0,489 0,306 0,385 0,646 0,430 0,530 0,644 0,408 0,577 0,460

Table 10. BRIC countries group ranked by the life security component of sustainable

Britain 1,246 0,272 0,667 0,815 0,282 0,633 0,547 0,370 0,566 0,455 0,670

Federation 1,353 0,611 0,625 0,267 0,977 0,614 0,391 0,320 0,570 0,679 0,603

**Energy safety , ES** 

Federation 1,353 0,611 0,625 0,267 0,977 0,614 0,391 0,320 0,570 0,679 0,603

**Global diseases, GD** 

**Inequalities between countries and people, GINI** 

**Global warming, GW** 

**Natural disasters, ND** 

**State instability, SI** 

**Limited access to** 

**potable water, WA** 

**CLUSTER 1 (''VERY HIGH'')** 

<sup>30</sup>*GBR* Great

<sup>16</sup>*RUS* Russian

**ISO** 

**Country** 

**CLUSTER 3 (''AVERAGE'')** 

<sup>16</sup>*RUS* Russian

**CLUSTER 4 (''LOW'')** 

development, 2010

**Life security componentCsl** 

**Biological balance, BB** 

**Child mortality, CM** 

2010

**Rate Csl** 

**CLUSTER 2 (''HIGH'')** 

**CLUSTER 3 (''AVERAGE'')** 

The calculations will be performed for the 5 groups of countries mentioned above. Table 8 rpresents the list of ten leading countries by the life security component of sustainable development in 2010.


Table 8. Ten leading countries by the life security component of sustainable development, 2010

All leading countries, except Paraguay, are in the cluster with very high values of life security index of sustainable development (table 8). It should be noted that Canada is the only representative of G8 group included in the list of ten leading countries.

Among G8 countries (Table 9) Italy has the worst values (43rd place). It should be mentioned that Russia in spite of rather low values of separate indices (''Corruption perception'', ''People inequality'', ''Global Warming'') is on the 16th place which is due, first of all, by a large amount of natural resources.

In the group of BRIC countries (Table 10) we can see that Brazil and Russia have the significantly better results by human life security component while China and India the Sustainable Development – 226 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

let us

the basis of the calculation of the standard value of Minkovski threats vector *Csl*= *Trj*

*K K Tr Tr <sup>k</sup> <sup>j</sup> <sup>k</sup> <sup>j</sup>*

The calculations will be performed for the 5 groups of countries mentioned above. Table 8 rpresents the list of ten leading countries by the life security component of sustainable

**Corruption perception , CP** 

1 *AUS* Australia 1,549 0,916 0,666 0,874 0,931 0,642 0,562 0,143 0,564 0,624 0,670 2 *ISL* Iceland 1,527 0,678 0,682 0,874 0,785 0,644 0,958 0,437 0,576 0,358 0,670

*FIN* Finland 1,480 0,872 0,679 0,884 0,412 0,642 0,717 0,268 0,576 0,708 0,670 *CAN* Canada 1,478 0,916 0,663 0,874 0,627 0,642 0,615 0,178 0,575 0,635 0,670 *SWE* Sweden 1,473 0,766 0,681 0,897 0,466 0,642 0,748 0,498 0,576 0,669 0,670 *NOR* Norway 1,451 0,511 0,679 0,869 0,621 0,642 0,735 0,661 0,576 0,640 0,670 *LUX* Luxemburg 1,434 0,347 0,683 0,847 0,278 0,634 0,958 0,071 0,576 0,689 0,670 *DNK* Denmark 1,397 0,284 0,674 0,901 0,377 0,642 0,752 0,353 0,576 0,722 0,670

9 *PRY* Paraguay 1,398 0,918 0,537 0,258 0,975 0,586 0,227 0,644 0,546 0,515 0,425 Table 8. Ten leading countries by the life security component of sustainable development, 2010

All leading countries, except Paraguay, are in the cluster with very high values of life security index of sustainable development (table 8). It should be noted that Canada is the

Among G8 countries (Table 9) Italy has the worst values (43rd place). It should be mentioned that Russia in spite of rather low values of separate indices (''Corruption perception'', ''People inequality'', ''Global Warming'') is on the 16th place which is due, first of all, by a

In the group of BRIC countries (Table 10) we can see that Brazil and Russia have the significantly better results by human life security component while China and India the

only representative of G8 group included in the list of ten leading countries.

**Energy safety , ES** 

Zealand 1,483 0,858 0,667 0,905 0,478 0,646 0,543 0,663 0,574 0,640 0,670

**Global diseases, GD** 

**Inequalities between countries and people, GINI** 

**Global warming, GW** 

**Natural disasters, ND** 

**State instability, SI** 

**Limited access to** 

**potable water, WA** 

. (13)

introduce for every *j* country the correlation between the clusters of the countries:

development in 2010.

**Rate Csl ISO Country** 

<sup>3</sup>*NZL* New

**CLUSTER 1(''VERY HIGH'')** 

**CLUSTER 3(''AVERAGE'')** 

large amount of natural resources.

**Life security component, Csl** 

**Biological balance, BB** 

**Child mortality, CM** 


Table 9. The G8 countries ranked by the life security component of sustainable development, 2010


Table 10. BRIC countries group ranked by the life security component of sustainable development, 2010

Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life 229

**Rate Csl ISO Country Life security component Csl Biological balance, BB Child mortality, CM Corruption perception, CP Energy safety , ES Global diseases, GD Inequalities between countries and people, GINI Global warming, GW Natural disasters, ND State instability, SI Limited access to potable water, WA** 

**CLUSTER 3 ('AVERAGE'')**  *NAM* Namibia 1,242 0,839 0,459 0,508 0,495 0,202 0,049 0,684 0,505 0,710 0,533 *TUN* Tunis 1,189 0,452 0,580 0,474 0,347 0,540 0,448 0,615 0,573 0,727 0,568 *MAR* Morocco 1,155 0,474 0,489 0,375 0,286 0,586 0,446 0,684 0,574 0,736 0,339 *DZA* Algeria 1,057 0,445 0,461 0,323 0,320 0,526 0,560 0,555 0,564 0,586 0,373 **CLUSTER 4 (''LOW'')**  *EGY* Egypt 1,227 0,438 0,569 0,323 0,313 0,579 0,623 0,620 0,576 0,713 0,654

56 *BWA* Botswana 1,171 0,597 0,522 0,630 0,409 0,062 0,135 0,593 0,569 0,689 0,586

**CLUSTER 5(''VERY LOW'')**  *TZA* Tanzania 1,198 0,503 0,161 0,304 0,826 0,133 0,574 0,683 0,542 0,689 0,068 *ETH* Ethiopia 1,192 0,489 0,145 0,313 0,833 0,179 0,667 0,685 0,394 0,653 0,022 *CMR* Cameroon 1,169 0,583 0,090 0,267 0,743 0,180 0,374 0,681 0,573 0,731 0,236 *GMB* Gambia 1,167 0,354 0,154 0,333 0,764 0,326 0,323 0,681 0,568 0,694 0,533

*ZMB* Zambia 1,150 0,618 0,062 0,343 0,825 0,037 0,265 0,681 0,396 0,659 0,101 *MWI* Malowi 1,138 0,518 0,174 0,375 0,764 0,059 0,484 0,685 0,399 0,666 0,323 *BEN* Benin 1,136 0,489 0,113 0,333 0,677 0,256 0,493 0,675 0,544 0,724 0,250 *UGA* Uganda 1,122 0,467 0,083 0,294 0,764 0,123 0,412 0,684 0,482 0,691 0,157 *KEN* Kenya 1,076 0,481 0,097 0,267 0,784 0,138 0,316 0,676 0,375 0,616 0,095 *SEN* Senegal 1,071 0,525 0,146 0,343 0,577 0,301 0,481 0,676 0,562 0,600 0,177 *NGA* Nigeria 1,069 0,496 0,026 0,294 0,853 0,153 0,405 0,392 0,574 0,509 0,089 *MDG* Madagascar 1,064 0,611 0,153 0,343 0,764 0,339 0,324 0,683 0,454 0,121 0,028 *ZWE* Zimbabwe 0,991 0,489 0,188 0,267 0,728 0,003 0,275 0,659 0,443 0,147 0,356

Table 12. Countries of Africa ranked by the life security component of sustainable

Africa 1,009 0,431 0,035 0,530 0,494 0,153 0,168 0,370 0,527 0,691 0,514

bique 1,158 0,597 0,093 0,294 0,848 0,156 0,326 0,644 0,372 0,701 0,042

<sup>104</sup>*ZAF* Southern

62 *MOZ* Mozam-

development, 2010

rates of people life security practically coincide with the positions of these countries in the life quality rating of sustainable development.

For the group of post-socialistic countries (table 11) the main feature is the growth of difference by the value of human life security component. Thus, in 2010 the positions for this group vary from 16 (Russian) to 102 (Uzbekistan).


Table 11. Post-socialistic countries ranked by the life safety component of sustainable development, 2010

Sustainable Development – 228 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

rates of people life security practically coincide with the positions of these countries in the

For the group of post-socialistic countries (table 11) the main feature is the growth of difference by the value of human life security component. Thus, in 2010 the positions for this

> **Biological balance, BB**

Republic 1,211 0,309 0,677 0,553 0,301

Federation 1,353 0,611 0,625 0,267 0,977

1,187 0,481 0,527 0,313 0,651

1,121 0,525 0,480 0,241 0,540

1,109 0,438 0,618 0,343 0,318

*SVN* Slovenia 1,278 0,328 0,677 0,728 0,324 *EST* Estonia 1,271 0,597 0,667 0,728 0,326 *HRV* Croatia 1,267 0,431 0,666 0,463 0,306 *SVK* Slovakia 1,232 0,416 0,655 0,508 0,296 *LVA* Latvia 1,230 0,625 0,649 0,508 0,460 *POL* Poland 1,226 0,361 0,661 0,564 0,312 *LTU* Lithuania 1,225 0,496 0,658 0,553 0,314 *HUN* Hungary 1,216 0,460 0,663 0,575 0,300

53 *ALB* Albania 1,179 0,445 0,620 0,364 0,395

*ARM* Armenia 1,212 0,438 0,570 0,313 0,295 *AZE* Azerbaijan 1,199 0,438 0,490 0,276 0,292 *BGR* Bulgaria 1,197 0,374 0,639 0,429 0,296 *ROU* Rumania 1,099 0,467 0,622 0,429 0,345

65 *UKR* Ukraine 1,152 0,438 0,613 0,267 0,388

87 *MDA* Moldova 1,094 0,467 0,602 0,375 0,276 94 *TJK* Tajikistan 1,069 0,489 0,330 0,249 0,514

102 *UZB* Uzbekistan 1,038 0,460 0,477 0,225 0,319 Table 11. Post-socialistic countries ranked by the life safety component of sustainable

**Child mortality, CM** 

**Corruption perception, CP** 

**Energy security , ES** 

life quality rating of sustainable development.

group vary from 16 (Russian) to 102 (Uzbekistan).

**Life security component Csl** 

**Rate** 

**Csl ISO Country** 

**CLUSTER 2 ("HIGH")** 

<sup>42</sup>*CZE* Czech

**CLUSTER 4 ("LOW")**  <sup>50</sup>*KAZ* Kazakhsta n

<sup>77</sup>*KGZ* Kyrgyzsta n

**CLUSTER 5 ("VERY LOW")** 

Bosnia and

Herzegovi na

81 *BIH* 

development, 2010

**CLUSTER 3 ("MIDDLE")**  <sup>16</sup>*RUS* Russian


Table 12. Countries of Africa ranked by the life security component of sustainable development, 2010

Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life 231

*ISL* Iceland 2,883 1,357 1,527 *SWE* Sweden 2,870 1,398 1,473 *AUS* Australia 2,859 1,310 1,549 *NZL* New Zealand 2,848 1,365 1,483 *NOR* Norway 2,830 1,379 1,451 *CHE* Switzerland 2,827 1,498 1,329 *FIN* Finland 2,823 1,342 1,480 *CAN* Canada 2,771 1,293 1,478 *DNK* Denmark 2,707 1,310 1,397 *LUX* Luxemburg 2,691 1,257 1,434

Table 13. Ten leading countries ranked by sustainable development index, 2010

*CAN* Canada 2,771 1,293 1,478 *DEU* Germany 2,654 1,338 1,315 *USA* The USA 2,636 1,268 1,368 *FRA* France 2,631 1,320 1,312 *JPN* Japan 2,571 1,290 1,281 *GBR* Great Britain 2,565 1,319 1,246

26 *ITA* Italy 2,380 1,169 1,210

49 *RUS* Russia 2,093 0,740 1,353

G8 countries are ''scattered'' in the table from the 8th (for Canada) to the 49th position (for

**Sustainable development index Isd** 

35 *BRA* Brazil 2,256 0,902 1,353 49 *RUS* Russia 2,093 0,740 1,353

78 *CHN* China 1,762 0,647 1,115 86 *IND* India 1,672 0,572 1,100

Table 15. BRIC countries group ranked by sustainable development index, 2010

Table 14. G8 countries ranked by sustainable development index, 2010

**Sustainable development index Isd** 

**Sustainable development index Isd** 

**Life quality component Cql** 

> **Life quality component Cql**

**Life quality component Cql** 

**Life security component Csl** 

> **Life security component Csl**

**Life security component Csl** 

**Rate** 

**Rate** 

**Isd ISO Country** 

**CLUSTER 1 (''VERY HIGH'')**

**Isd ISO Country** 

**CLUSTER 1 (''VERY HIGH'')**

**CLUSTER 2 (''HIGH'')**

Russia) (Table 14).

**Rate** 

**CLUSTER 3 (''AVERAGE'')**

**Isd ISO Country** 

**CLUSTER 3 (''AVERAGE'')**

**CLUSTER 4 (''LOW'')**

For the countries of Africa (Table 12) we have the average (Namibia, Morocco, Tunis, Algeria), low (Egypt, Botswana, South Africa) and very low values of life security component of sustainable development. This results in permanent political and military conflicts in this region.

Analyzing Ukraine by its vulnerability to the global threats we see that in comparison with 2009 the rate of its national security has become slightly better, but still remains significantly low (by the human life security index Ukraine has reached the 65th position from 78th position). For Ukraine the worst threats still are the following: level of spreading of global diseases, especially AIDS and tuberculosis, which is one of the highest in the world; very high level of corruption; low level of energy security; high child mortality; high level of state fragility.

#### **3.1.3 The estimation of sustainable development index as quarter functional of human life security and quality**

Having obtained the values of life quality component of sustainable development *Cql*  (tables 3-7) and component of human life security Csl *(*table 8-12), let us calculate the value of sustainable development index *Isd*, as a quarter functional by the formula (1) according to the SDGM methodology. The results of calculations for 5 groups of countries are shown in Tables 13-17 accordingly. All countries have been distributed into 5 clusters by the sustainable development index: ''Very high"", ''High", "Average'', ''Low'' and ''Very low''.

According to table 13, ten countries with the highest values of sustainable development index include 7 European countries (Iceland, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, Finland, Denmark and Luxemburg), one country of Northern America (Canada) and the countries of Oceania (Australia and New Zealand). They are characterized by low level of vulnerability to the global threats (high level of national security), high indices of human life quality in the economic, ecological and social dimensions, high harmonization level of sustainable development (figure 8).

Cluster 1 (''Very low'') contains the group of the most ''successful'' countries of the world, including the G8 countries, except Russia; they have the highest rates of life quality and lowest rate of vulnerability to the impact of global threats totality according to Table 13, 14.

On the contrary cluster 5 (''Very low'') contains the countries with low values of life quality component of sustainable development and these countries are more vulnerable to the impact of global threats totality. Ukraine together with China, India, South Africa and other countries has been included to cluster 4 (''Low'') with low level of sustainable development. Most of these countries have average and low values of life quality and security components of sustainable development. This means that there is the definite correlation between vulnerability to the global threat totality (global saecurity) and life quality component of sustainable development of these countries.

BRIC countries group hold the following rating positions: Brazil – the 35th position, Russia – the 49th position, China – the 78th position, India – the 86th position.

Sustainable Development – 230 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

For the countries of Africa (Table 12) we have the average (Namibia, Morocco, Tunis, Algeria), low (Egypt, Botswana, South Africa) and very low values of life security component of sustainable development. This results in permanent political and military

Analyzing Ukraine by its vulnerability to the global threats we see that in comparison with 2009 the rate of its national security has become slightly better, but still remains significantly low (by the human life security index Ukraine has reached the 65th position from 78th position). For Ukraine the worst threats still are the following: level of spreading of global diseases, especially AIDS and tuberculosis, which is one of the highest in the world; very high level of corruption; low level of energy security; high child mortality; high level of state

**3.1.3 The estimation of sustainable development index as quarter functional of human** 

Having obtained the values of life quality component of sustainable development *Cql*  (tables 3-7) and component of human life security Csl *(*table 8-12), let us calculate the value of sustainable development index *Isd*, as a quarter functional by the formula (1) according to the SDGM methodology. The results of calculations for 5 groups of countries are shown in Tables 13-17 accordingly. All countries have been distributed into 5 clusters by the sustainable development index: ''Very high"", ''High", "Average'', ''Low'' and ''Very

According to table 13, ten countries with the highest values of sustainable development index include 7 European countries (Iceland, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, Finland, Denmark and Luxemburg), one country of Northern America (Canada) and the countries of Oceania (Australia and New Zealand). They are characterized by low level of vulnerability to the global threats (high level of national security), high indices of human life quality in the economic, ecological and social dimensions, high harmonization level of sustainable

Cluster 1 (''Very low'') contains the group of the most ''successful'' countries of the world, including the G8 countries, except Russia; they have the highest rates of life quality and lowest rate of vulnerability to the impact of global threats totality according to Table 13,

On the contrary cluster 5 (''Very low'') contains the countries with low values of life quality component of sustainable development and these countries are more vulnerable to the impact of global threats totality. Ukraine together with China, India, South Africa and other countries has been included to cluster 4 (''Low'') with low level of sustainable development. Most of these countries have average and low values of life quality and security components of sustainable development. This means that there is the definite correlation between vulnerability to the global threat totality (global saecurity) and life quality component of

BRIC countries group hold the following rating positions: Brazil – the 35th position, Russia –

conflicts in this region.

**life security and quality** 

development (figure 8).

sustainable development of these countries.

the 49th position, China – the 78th position, India – the 86th position.

fragility.

low''.

14.


Table 13. Ten leading countries ranked by sustainable development index, 2010


Table 14. G8 countries ranked by sustainable development index, 2010

G8 countries are ''scattered'' in the table from the 8th (for Canada) to the 49th position (for Russia) (Table 14).


Table 15. BRIC countries group ranked by sustainable development index, 2010

Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life 233

**Sustainable development index Isd** 

*NAM* Namibia 2,034 0,792 1,242 *TUN* Tunis 2,024 0,835 1,189 *MAR* Morocco 1,929 0,774 1,155 *DZA* Algeria 1,859 0,761 1,098

61 *EGY* Egypt 1,961 0,761 1,199 71 *BWA* Botswana 1,853 0,796 1,057

*TZA* Tanzania 1,648 0,450 1,198 *UGA* Uganda 1,640 0,473 1,167 *ZMB* Zambia 1,618 0,496 1,122 *MWI* Malaya 1,600 0,541 1,059 *KEN* Kenya 1,600 0,462 1,138 *GMB* Gambia 1,584 0,508 1,076 *MDG* Madagascar 1,572 0,508 1,064 *MOZ* Mozambique 1,571 0,414 1,158 *CMR* Cameroon 1,540 0,371 1,169 *BEN* Benin 1,517 0,380 1,136 *ETH* Ethiopia 1,514 0,323 1,192 *SEN* Senegal 1,482 0,411 1,071 *NGA* Nigeria 1,443 0,375 1,069 *ZWE* Zimbabwe 1,218 0,227 0,991

Table 17. Countries of Africa ranked by sustainable development index, 2010

Fig. 6. Clusterization of countries in the coordinates of life quality and security

Republic 1,755 0,746 1,009

**Life quality component Cql** 

**Life security component Csl** 

Clusters

**Rate** 

**Isd ISO Country** 

<sup>80</sup>*ZAF* Southern African

**CLUSTER 5(''VERY LOW'')**

**CLUSTER 3 (''AVERAGE'')**

**CLUSTER 4 (''LOW'')**

Post-socialistic countries also took different positions by sustainable development index (table 16). The clusters with very high and high value of sustainable development index contain Slovenia, Lithuania, Estonia, Slovakia, Croatia, Latvia, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Bulgaria.


Table 16. Post-socialistic countries ranked by sustainable development index, 2010

Russia, Rumania, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia have been included into the cluster with average values of sustainable development index. The countries with low and very low value of sustainable development index include Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

All countries of Africa, except for Namibia, Morocco, Tunis and Algeria, are in the clusters with low and very low value of sustainable development index.

Sustainable Development – 232 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

Post-socialistic countries also took different positions by sustainable development index (table 16). The clusters with very high and high value of sustainable development index contain Slovenia, Lithuania, Estonia, Slovakia, Croatia, Latvia, Hungary, Poland, Czech

> **Sustainable development indexIsd**

*CZE* Czech republic 2,425 1,214 1,211 *SVK* Slovakia 2,408 1,176 1,232 *EST* Estonia 2,393 1,149 1,244 *SVN* Slovenia 2,360 1,083 1,278 *LTU* Lithuania 2,350 1,125 1,225 *HUN* Hungary 2,327 1,112 1,216 *LVA* Latvia 2,325 1,095 1,230 *HRV* Croatia 2,268 1,000 1,267 *POL* Poland 2,235 1,009 1,226 *ALB* Albania 2,163 0,984 1,179

*BGR* Bulgaria 2,129 0,932 1,197 *RUS* Russia 2,093 0,740 1,353 *ROU* Rumania 2,091 0,992 1,099 *ARM* Armenia 2,029 0,817 1,212 *AZE* Azerbaijan 1,961 0,734 1,227

64 *KAZ* Kazakhstan 1,907 0,720 1,187 68 *UKR* Ukraine 1,889 0,854 1,036

75 *KGZ* Kyrgyzstan 1,774 0,653 1,121

*MDA* Moldova 1,713 0,619 1,094 *TJK* Tajikistan 1,562 0,493 1,069 *UZB* Uzbekistan 1,450 0,411 1,038 Table 16. Post-socialistic countries ranked by sustainable development index, 2010

Russia, Rumania, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia have been included into the cluster with average values of sustainable development index. The countries with low and very low value of sustainable development index include Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan

All countries of Africa, except for Namibia, Morocco, Tunis and Algeria, are in the clusters

with low and very low value of sustainable development index.

Herzegovina 1,816 0,707 1,109

**Life quality componentCql**

**Life security component Csl** 

Republic, Bulgaria.

**CLUSTER 2 (''HIGH'')**

**CLUSTER 3 (''AVERAGE'')**

**CLUSTER 4 (''LOW'')**

<sup>73</sup>*BIH* Bosnia and

**CLUSTER 5 (''VERY LOW'')**

and Uzbekistan.

**Isd ISO Country** 

**Rate** 


Table 17. Countries of Africa ranked by sustainable development index, 2010

Fig. 6. Clusterization of countries in the coordinates of life quality and security

Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life 235

obtained by the recognized international organizations we have developed the mathematical model that gives the possibility to calculate the components of human life quality and security as the components of sustainable development index and harmonization level of this development for every country. The global modeling of sustainable development processes for the large group of the countries in terms of human life quality and security has been performed. The results of modeling have been explained

The author expresses his gratitude to the employees of ICSU World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development Kostiantyn Yefremov, Andrew Boldak, Alexis Pasichny, Tetyana Matorina, Olena Poptsova for their assistance in data gathering and

Aivazian S. А. (1983). *Applied statistics: Fundamentals of simulation and primary data processing* 

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http://www.transparency.org/policy\_research/surveys\_indices/cpi/2008/cpi\_20

Donbass Internet paper NEWS.dn.ua (n.d.). Parade of moneybags: 50 richest people of Ukraine have amassed \$64,4 billion [Electronic resource]. Access link:

Global Footprint Network (n.d.). Ecological Footprint – Ecological Sustainability [Electron. resource]. Access link: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/ Human Development Report 2007/2008. Fighting climate change: Human solidarity in a

International Living (2009). 2009 Quality of Life Index [Electron. resource]. Access link: http://www.internationalliving.com/index.php/Internal-Components/Further-

Johannesburg Summit (2002). Access mode: http://www.un.org/russian/conferen/wssd/

Kotliakov V. M. (2001) Global Climate changes: anthropogenic impact or natural variations?,

Marshall M. G. (2008). Global Report on Conflict, Governance and State Fragility 2008

[Electron. resource], In: *Foreign Policy Bulletin,* M. G. Marshall, B. R. Cole. Access

Kondratiev N. D. (1989) *Problems of economic dynamics [Text]*, Economics, Moscow

link: http://www.systemicpeace.org/Global Report 2008.pdf

 http://www.folkecenter.dk/en/articles/hscheer\_aburja.htm CIA (n.d.). The World Factbook [Electron. Resource]. Access link:

http://novosti.dn.ua/details/46009/2.html

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Resources/qofl2009

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*Ecology and life*, V. M. Kotliakov, №1. Access link: http://www.ecolife.ru/jornal/ecap/2001-1-3.shtml;

*[Text]* (Reference book), S. А. Aivazian, I S. Yenukov, L. D. Meshalkin, Finances and

in details for every dimension of the sustainable development.

**5. Acknowledgment** 

**6. References** 

computer modeling of the presented results.

statistics, Moscow

08\_table

#### **3.2 Country profiles construction on example of Ukraine**

One of the main applications of the Sustainable Development Gauging Matrix (SDGM) is using actual data on indicators and parameters of sustainable development for a given country with the purpose of decision-making at various levels of the country's governance.

Using the country profiles service (http://wdc.org.ua/en/services/country-profilesvisualization) provided by WDC-Ukraine one can easily obtain dashboard for each world country to perform further in-depth analysis.

For 2010 results Ukraine has Isd=1,889, Cql=0,854, Csl=1,036 with rankings #68, #73, #65 correspondingly. Each sustainable development component and its can be displayed in a dimension diagram (Fig. 7).

Fig. 7. Dimension diagrams for Ukraine's quality of life(a) and security of life (b).

Given figure gives possibility to handle visual analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of Ukraine through comparison of the values for certain indicators with their extreme and average meanings.

Considering the quality of life diagram one can point out, that Ukraine has better developed social dimension and poorer economic dimension. Analyzing the security of life component we can name as strengths indicators which values are better than average: people inequality (GINI), access to potable water (WA), health (CM, GD) and natural disasters (ND). Accordingly weaknesses are energy security (ES), biological balance (BB), corruption perception (CP), CO2 emissions (GW) and state instability (SI). The most critical situation is with corruption and state instability that corresponds to the evaluations of experts from many international organizations like World Economic Forum, World Bank, etc. about Ukraine development problems.

#### **4. Conclusion**

In this research the system of indexes and indicators has been developed and the gauging matrix for sustainable development processes (SDGM) in three dimensions: economic, ecological and socio-institutional has been offered. Using this matrix and initial data, obtained by the recognized international organizations we have developed the mathematical model that gives the possibility to calculate the components of human life quality and security as the components of sustainable development index and harmonization level of this development for every country. The global modeling of sustainable development processes for the large group of the countries in terms of human life quality and security has been performed. The results of modeling have been explained in details for every dimension of the sustainable development.

#### **5. Acknowledgment**

Sustainable Development – 234 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

One of the main applications of the Sustainable Development Gauging Matrix (SDGM) is using actual data on indicators and parameters of sustainable development for a given country with the purpose of decision-making at various levels of the country's governance. Using the country profiles service (http://wdc.org.ua/en/services/country-profilesvisualization) provided by WDC-Ukraine one can easily obtain dashboard for each world

For 2010 results Ukraine has Isd=1,889, Cql=0,854, Csl=1,036 with rankings #68, #73, #65 correspondingly. Each sustainable development component and its can be displayed in a

Fig. 7. Dimension diagrams for Ukraine's quality of life(a) and security of life (b).

Given figure gives possibility to handle visual analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of Ukraine through comparison of the values for certain indicators with their extreme and

Considering the quality of life diagram one can point out, that Ukraine has better developed social dimension and poorer economic dimension. Analyzing the security of life component we can name as strengths indicators which values are better than average: people inequality (GINI), access to potable water (WA), health (CM, GD) and natural disasters (ND). Accordingly weaknesses are energy security (ES), biological balance (BB), corruption perception (CP), CO2 emissions (GW) and state instability (SI). The most critical situation is with corruption and state instability that corresponds to the evaluations of experts from many international organizations like World Economic Forum, World Bank, etc. about

In this research the system of indexes and indicators has been developed and the gauging matrix for sustainable development processes (SDGM) in three dimensions: economic, ecological and socio-institutional has been offered. Using this matrix and initial data,

**3.2 Country profiles construction on example of Ukraine** 

country to perform further in-depth analysis.

a. b.

dimension diagram (Fig. 7).

average meanings.

**4. Conclusion** 

Ukraine development problems.

The author expresses his gratitude to the employees of ICSU World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development Kostiantyn Yefremov, Andrew Boldak, Alexis Pasichny, Tetyana Matorina, Olena Poptsova for their assistance in data gathering and computer modeling of the presented results.

#### **6. References**


http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR\_20072008\_EN\_Complete.pdf


**10** 

*Spain* 

Oscar Fernández *University of León* 

**People, Places and History –** 

**Traditional Environments<sup>1</sup>**

**Towards the Sustainability of Social Life in** 

The study of the historical centres of cities has not attracted much attention, perhaps because they have been considered a "consolidated urban phenomenon", or maybe for a number of other reasons. Nevertheless, they are places of great interest, liable to farreaching transformations and innovations, with much social interaction, which varies over time, for they are generally inhabited by one group of individuals, the residents, and used and enjoyed by others, depending on their functionality, which is usually one of tourism, leisure and culture. And the most interersting point, as I shall try to point out, is that it is a phenomenon with characteristics and peculiarities common to many historical centres of

This article examines the characteristics, problems and solutions offered by historical centres in different cultural contexts. Before going into a general analysis, I offer a study of the case of the historical centre of the city of León, in Spain, which will allow us to reflect later and

León is a medium-sized city with a complex structure with a dominating urban characteristic reaching beyond the actual municipal boundaries. It forms, together with its suburbs, a small conurbation of nearly 180,000 inhabitants. It has two thousand years of history and is very attractive because of its situation in north-west Spain, an area where different peoples have settled and different cultures have developed over time. It is a centre of such important routes as the Pilgrim Route to Santiago, the Silver Route and the *Mesta* route of sheep transhumance. All this contributes to its cultural value and heritage of different periods and styles. Notable examples of this heritage are the 1st-century Roman city walls, St Isidore's Basilica and the Royal Burial Vault of the Kings and Queens of León (12th century), the Gothic Cathedral (begun in 1255) and the 18th-century Renaissance San Marcos building, now a *parador* (state-run hotel). The old city, the walled area, is the Roman and Medieval enclave, with a history going back over two thousand years. The quarter is characterized by a great morphological, functional and social variety. It retains a major role

1 This study is part of a project financed by the Spanish Ministery of Science and Technology (ref. FFI

**1. Introduction** 

2009-12186).

medium-sized cities of southern Europe.

make proposals for the sustained development of such places.


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http://www.weforum.org/en/media/publications/CompetitivenessReports/inde x.htm ;


### **People, Places and History – Towards the Sustainability of Social Life in Traditional Environments<sup>1</sup>**

Oscar Fernández *University of León Spain* 

#### **1. Introduction**

Sustainable Development – 236 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

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9, ES2003, doi:10, 2205/2007ES000273

2030 [Electron. resource], In: *PLoS Medicine*, C.D. Mathers, D. Loncar. Access link: http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pmed.0

> The study of the historical centres of cities has not attracted much attention, perhaps because they have been considered a "consolidated urban phenomenon", or maybe for a number of other reasons. Nevertheless, they are places of great interest, liable to farreaching transformations and innovations, with much social interaction, which varies over time, for they are generally inhabited by one group of individuals, the residents, and used and enjoyed by others, depending on their functionality, which is usually one of tourism, leisure and culture. And the most interersting point, as I shall try to point out, is that it is a phenomenon with characteristics and peculiarities common to many historical centres of medium-sized cities of southern Europe.

> This article examines the characteristics, problems and solutions offered by historical centres in different cultural contexts. Before going into a general analysis, I offer a study of the case of the historical centre of the city of León, in Spain, which will allow us to reflect later and make proposals for the sustained development of such places.

> León is a medium-sized city with a complex structure with a dominating urban characteristic reaching beyond the actual municipal boundaries. It forms, together with its suburbs, a small conurbation of nearly 180,000 inhabitants. It has two thousand years of history and is very attractive because of its situation in north-west Spain, an area where different peoples have settled and different cultures have developed over time. It is a centre of such important routes as the Pilgrim Route to Santiago, the Silver Route and the *Mesta* route of sheep transhumance. All this contributes to its cultural value and heritage of different periods and styles. Notable examples of this heritage are the 1st-century Roman city walls, St Isidore's Basilica and the Royal Burial Vault of the Kings and Queens of León (12th century), the Gothic Cathedral (begun in 1255) and the 18th-century Renaissance San Marcos building, now a *parador* (state-run hotel). The old city, the walled area, is the Roman and Medieval enclave, with a history going back over two thousand years. The quarter is characterized by a great morphological, functional and social variety. It retains a major role

<sup>1</sup> This study is part of a project financed by the Spanish Ministery of Science and Technology (ref. FFI 2009-12186).

People, Places and History – Towards the Sustainability of Social Life in Traditional Environments 239

a survey on the implantation of Local Agenda 21. Maiques (2003) shows the configuration of the townscape of Valencia, Spain, another European Mediterranean city, from a historical perspective. The creation of an intellectual and political discourse based on biological and medical metaphors helps to create an image of urban society at a definite historical moment. Another case is the one offered by Williams (2002) on the "who", "why" and "to what purpose" of the Historic Cairo Restoration Program, after many years of neglect. A different cultural context, but not for that less interesting, is offered by Middleton (2003), who says that recuperating a city through tourism is having some repercussions in Latin America, for example in Quito, the object of his study. The solutions offered may be similar to European ones, although he says that there could be some disadvantages to them if any type of social

But if we concentrate on the historical centres of many southern European cities, we shall see that they are characterized by a marked development during the second half of the twentieth century, more so in the last quarter. Reviewing these studies and the various institutional forums offering information on the progress and achievements within the development of European programmes and projects, and continuing previous studies (Fernández, 2000), I shall outline the situation of many historical centres similar to those of Bologna in Italy, León in Spain, Leipzig in Germany and Ljubljana in Slovenia, all participants in the Re Urban Mobil Programme; and a number of historical centres of medium-sized cities of southern Europe involved in Local Agenda 21, which offers strategies for changing many situations, including that of historical centres (http://www.un.org/esa/sustev/documents/agenda21/index.htm) plus other cities that

It could be argued that the analysis of the period 1960-1990s shows the typical development of many of these cities, as well as in León: the resident population is mainly aging, generally working class, with housing units occupied by a single person paying a low rent, a situation which would seem to have prevented investment in renewal. In the most degraded parts of old districts, where the buildings are on the verge of ruin, the people largely belong to lowincome groups and even socially excluded ones. There are often small shops and craftsmen's workshops recalling the economic activities of bygone days, generally the Middle Ages. Aging is therefore accompanied by a functional residualness, a step towards the socio-economic degradation of a neighbourhood, with the planning and social consequences of a social and functional vacuum. The progressive aging and social exclusion of the residual population are factors that have contributed to the decay of neighbourhoods, brought on by the low purchasing power of the population and progressive impoverishment of economic and social relationships. The tendency of the last few years has generally meant a progressive loss of population, which has given rise to the replacing of the original social group of the area. Poverty and the decay of accommodation pushed all those who could afford it to other parts of the city, which meant that those remaining

Another common phenomenon in historical centres has been the inability to bring about a social unification of all the residents of the neighbourhood. Furthermore, the arrival of new ones implies a structural division within it into old and new residents. The latter are on the road to exclusion, favoured by the fact that the unity of the group, if indeed it can be called

are signatories to the Aalborg Charter (http://www.sustainable-cities.org).

conflict arises to prevent their development.

belonged to low-income groups.

in the life of the city owing both to its geographical location in the centre of the city and to its historical and cultural significance. The gradual process of degradation undergone in recent years has made it less competitive in comparison with other areas and new neighbourhoods of the city, which are more dynamic, despite the considerable efforts of the city council over the last ten years to maintain public spaces, buildings, lighting and other improvements, with the help of European financing. In this article, we shall analyse the problem of historical centres, general to many Spanish and Italian cities, and others of southern Europe.

Later, through the case study of the historical centre of the city of León, I shall concentrate on one of the most urgent problems for its people: habitability, housing and other indicators of sustainability. We consider that it is also possible to speak of the construction of sustainable cities through the situation of historical centres, for despite having their own life, they also form part of the rest of the city. By applying the criterion of sustainability, we shall discover how to achieve the city of tomorrow, the city of progress, while at the same time preserving and safeguarding our cultural heritage brought to us by the city's history.

The central methodological position of the discipline of anthropology is based on participatory observation, with in-depth interviews yielding qualitative information. We also use quantitative data obtained from a habitability survey, using indicators of sustainability, carried out in the city of León in 2004 under the auspices of the Re Urban Mobil Project and within the framework of research performed by the group led by Dr. Cervantes (2004 www.re-urban.com) for León City Council. The methodology of the survey is based on that of the UFZ-Centre for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle. Over a total population of 5,364 living in 2,443 homes in the historical centre in 2004, 287 homes were contacted and 261 questionnaires were distributed, of which 206 were analysed, representing 8.4% of the homes and 3.8% of the population.

The information is completed from archives and other graphical sources, which allow us to corroborate data, along with bibliographical sources for purposes of comparison.

#### **2. The situation and the problems of historical centres of medium-sized cities**

Although the problems of historical centres are manifest and they are a constant source of preoccupation, they have received less attention than they deserve. Their situation has been tackled from different disciplines and in different countries and contexts. A recent review of the literature shows that the preoccupation aroused has come from different scientific angles and is present in diverse cultural contexts. Thus for example, Rossi (2004), writing on the process of urban change undergone by the centre of Naples over the last decade, examines the role of a number of local institutions, such as the judiciary, the new urban political elites, institutionalized civil society and urban social movements. They are the instigators of the dynamics of urban change "from above", and later of dynamics "from below". Another case from the same country is offered by Lo Piccolo (1996), who examines the different attempts to preserve and restore the historical centre of Palermo, a historical city with a unique cultural heritage, typical of the southern Mediterranean cities, for its setting, the wealth and variety of its architecture and its historical buildings, its characteristic habitational problems, and the different preservation plans implemented. More recently, Sancassiani (2005), from an optimistic standpoint, gives data about Italy in general, though with specific reference to Sustainable Development – 238 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

in the life of the city owing both to its geographical location in the centre of the city and to its historical and cultural significance. The gradual process of degradation undergone in recent years has made it less competitive in comparison with other areas and new neighbourhoods of the city, which are more dynamic, despite the considerable efforts of the city council over the last ten years to maintain public spaces, buildings, lighting and other improvements, with the help of European financing. In this article, we shall analyse the problem of historical centres, general to many Spanish and Italian cities, and others of

Later, through the case study of the historical centre of the city of León, I shall concentrate on one of the most urgent problems for its people: habitability, housing and other indicators of sustainability. We consider that it is also possible to speak of the construction of sustainable cities through the situation of historical centres, for despite having their own life, they also form part of the rest of the city. By applying the criterion of sustainability, we shall discover how to achieve the city of tomorrow, the city of progress, while at the same time

The central methodological position of the discipline of anthropology is based on participatory observation, with in-depth interviews yielding qualitative information. We also use quantitative data obtained from a habitability survey, using indicators of sustainability, carried out in the city of León in 2004 under the auspices of the Re Urban Mobil Project and within the framework of research performed by the group led by Dr. Cervantes (2004 www.re-urban.com) for León City Council. The methodology of the survey is based on that of the UFZ-Centre for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle. Over a total population of 5,364 living in 2,443 homes in the historical centre in 2004, 287 homes were contacted and 261 questionnaires were distributed, of which 206 were analysed,

The information is completed from archives and other graphical sources, which allow us to

**2. The situation and the problems of historical centres of medium-sized cities**  Although the problems of historical centres are manifest and they are a constant source of preoccupation, they have received less attention than they deserve. Their situation has been tackled from different disciplines and in different countries and contexts. A recent review of the literature shows that the preoccupation aroused has come from different scientific angles and is present in diverse cultural contexts. Thus for example, Rossi (2004), writing on the process of urban change undergone by the centre of Naples over the last decade, examines the role of a number of local institutions, such as the judiciary, the new urban political elites, institutionalized civil society and urban social movements. They are the instigators of the dynamics of urban change "from above", and later of dynamics "from below". Another case from the same country is offered by Lo Piccolo (1996), who examines the different attempts to preserve and restore the historical centre of Palermo, a historical city with a unique cultural heritage, typical of the southern Mediterranean cities, for its setting, the wealth and variety of its architecture and its historical buildings, its characteristic habitational problems, and the different preservation plans implemented. More recently, Sancassiani (2005), from an optimistic standpoint, gives data about Italy in general, though with specific reference to

corroborate data, along with bibliographical sources for purposes of comparison.

preserving and safeguarding our cultural heritage brought to us by the city's history.

representing 8.4% of the homes and 3.8% of the population.

southern Europe.

a survey on the implantation of Local Agenda 21. Maiques (2003) shows the configuration of the townscape of Valencia, Spain, another European Mediterranean city, from a historical perspective. The creation of an intellectual and political discourse based on biological and medical metaphors helps to create an image of urban society at a definite historical moment. Another case is the one offered by Williams (2002) on the "who", "why" and "to what purpose" of the Historic Cairo Restoration Program, after many years of neglect. A different cultural context, but not for that less interesting, is offered by Middleton (2003), who says that recuperating a city through tourism is having some repercussions in Latin America, for example in Quito, the object of his study. The solutions offered may be similar to European ones, although he says that there could be some disadvantages to them if any type of social conflict arises to prevent their development.

But if we concentrate on the historical centres of many southern European cities, we shall see that they are characterized by a marked development during the second half of the twentieth century, more so in the last quarter. Reviewing these studies and the various institutional forums offering information on the progress and achievements within the development of European programmes and projects, and continuing previous studies (Fernández, 2000), I shall outline the situation of many historical centres similar to those of Bologna in Italy, León in Spain, Leipzig in Germany and Ljubljana in Slovenia, all participants in the Re Urban Mobil Programme; and a number of historical centres of medium-sized cities of southern Europe involved in Local Agenda 21, which offers strategies for changing many situations, including that of historical centres (http://www.un.org/esa/sustev/documents/agenda21/index.htm) plus other cities that are signatories to the Aalborg Charter (http://www.sustainable-cities.org).

It could be argued that the analysis of the period 1960-1990s shows the typical development of many of these cities, as well as in León: the resident population is mainly aging, generally working class, with housing units occupied by a single person paying a low rent, a situation which would seem to have prevented investment in renewal. In the most degraded parts of old districts, where the buildings are on the verge of ruin, the people largely belong to lowincome groups and even socially excluded ones. There are often small shops and craftsmen's workshops recalling the economic activities of bygone days, generally the Middle Ages. Aging is therefore accompanied by a functional residualness, a step towards the socio-economic degradation of a neighbourhood, with the planning and social consequences of a social and functional vacuum. The progressive aging and social exclusion of the residual population are factors that have contributed to the decay of neighbourhoods, brought on by the low purchasing power of the population and progressive impoverishment of economic and social relationships. The tendency of the last few years has generally meant a progressive loss of population, which has given rise to the replacing of the original social group of the area. Poverty and the decay of accommodation pushed all those who could afford it to other parts of the city, which meant that those remaining belonged to low-income groups.

Another common phenomenon in historical centres has been the inability to bring about a social unification of all the residents of the neighbourhood. Furthermore, the arrival of new ones implies a structural division within it into old and new residents. The latter are on the road to exclusion, favoured by the fact that the unity of the group, if indeed it can be called

People, Places and History – Towards the Sustainability of Social Life in Traditional Environments 241

an aesthetic task, whereby the historical and artistic city is rediscovered for citizens and tourists alike. Carefully chosen light colours for façades have become a visible sign of this recuperation, which we trust is not just a facelift. Another characteristic tendency has been pedestrianization, with non-residents' cars being denied entry, and space thus being

On the other hand, however, there has always been a noticeable division of the subgroups living in historical centres, which means that they fail to achieve the group identification necessary for solving problems facing all of them, while bringing out their socio-economic

After this brief overview, we shall now concentrate on the case of León, where, after a

In León, three factors come together which, according to J. Borja (1997, 2003), are necessary for the success of urban transformation projects: the sensation of acute crisis brought on by the awareness of the globalization of the economy, the harmonization of public and private urban key players together with the generation of local leadership (both political and civic), and the joint will and consensus of the citizens for the city to take a step forward, both

Thus, León, with the brokerage of the council and the impulse of the global macroeconomic current imposed and facilitated by the European Union, and under the auspices of the Regional Development Fund, in the 1990s, sought the revitalization of its old quarter but with criteria that in some way were imposed on it from outside. Thus arose the Urban pilot project "Building León: a Development Proposal for the Old City 1995-1999", which, while also potentially applicable to other historical cities centres in the European Union, sought to bring new life to the historical centre of León. It was felt necessary to involve young people and revitalize the economy of the area by attracting small and medium-sized firms, and to improve the quality of life of the residents. In this way, the historical centre would not merely be a collection of historical buildings for tourists and visitors but the living district that it historically used to be, a place with its own identity and, in short, the definite and dynamic urban reality which, also historically, it has sought through the consensus of physical, social and economic structures. Furthermore, these projects include the idea of competitiveness at different levels, both internal, within the city, and external, with other similar cities, both Spanish and European. And this idea of competitiveness has made itself very much felt in the territorial debate, according to Díaz Orueta (1997). Because of it, and in line with globalizing and subsidy-based policies, there has been an on-going struggle to attract investment. Much effort has been made to modernize infrastructures, and much money has been spent on defining strategies to determine the place León should take in the

The work of social and political groups functioning in the district, which has had partial and isolated successes in line with Rossi's ideas (2004), is to be interpreted as directed at organizing the group and establishing an infrastructure for social dynamics leading to coexistence, solidarity and an improvement of the quality of life. A significant case was the

period of lethargy, the strategies applied are fairly typical of those outlined above.

liberated for citizens to walk around and enjoy the historical buildings.

diversity and multiculturalness.

hierarchies of cities.

**3. The historical centre of the city of León** 

physically and socio-economically and culturally.

that, mainly made up of the elderly, is based on tradition and common symbols, and on the knowledge afforded by years of living in the area. In the case of Spain, for the period in question, there were half a million people living in historical centres, with characteristics like those already mentioned, that is an elderly population with major shortcomings in services and accommodation, with a mean unemployment rate of 27.6% and 21.6% of the population with only elementary education. They are the only areas with a major amount of rented accommodation (44.5%) and a high proportion of empty dwellings (21.3%) (http://habitat.aq.upm.es/doc.html). In general, over half of the residents were born outside the municipal boundaries and are of low social classes. A quarter of the houses were lying empty and of those occupied, only 25% were owner-occupied. About 40% were severely dilapidated.

An analysis of references showed us that the areas in question had suffered deterioration in building and planning quality as well as falling behind socially and environmentally, some of them affected by social exclusion, an increase in the elderly population and people with low resources, neglect of buildings by well-off, etc. this brought about a crisis of economic activity, with the loss of traditional activities, the occupation by marginalized groups of buildings with inadequate sanitation that made them difficult to live in, and a consequent proliferation of tenement slums. The social image of these areas fell, and this deterioration gradually spread to neighbouring districts.

To this situation of depopulation and neglect there must be added the difficult problem arising from the new functionality being acquired by these neighbourhoods, now leisure areas, with an increasing number of bars and restaurants, which in principle met the demand of a cultural tourist sector offered by the area through the historical buildings and museums normally situated in such areas. This saturation of bars and the like, and their impact on night life and their concentration in certain parts of historical centres has discouraged new residents from entering the areas, along with other commercial functions and services. What we have seen is that the rehabilitation of these areas has become a pressing question, for they needed a very careful reformation in order not to affect their historical atmosphere and character and increase their vitality, and even their picturesqueness (various authors, Places to Live, 2003).

A similar process in these southern European centres, according to another study about León, (Fernández, 2000) has consisted, as the catastrophic tendency has waned, in new population groups coming into these districts, and not only the socially excluded, ethnic minorities or foreigners in precarious employment situations. Attracted by the gradual processes of restoration, young professional people are moving in, choosing these areas for their accessibility and central position. Moreover, the rehabilitation plans carried out have generally formed part of public programmes with European funding, mainly through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), such as those mentioned above (Urban, Re Urban, etc.) They have the advantage of setting up networks of cities with similar problems, affording the possibility of information exchanges and synergies (http://europa.eu.int/ comm/regional policy/intro/regions1 en.htm).

The effects have been varied and, at times, limited, mainly in small and medium-sized cities. The positive effects have served to establish guidelines for renovation, and grime, filth and damp have gradually given way to colour. The preservation of historical centres has become an aesthetic task, whereby the historical and artistic city is rediscovered for citizens and tourists alike. Carefully chosen light colours for façades have become a visible sign of this recuperation, which we trust is not just a facelift. Another characteristic tendency has been pedestrianization, with non-residents' cars being denied entry, and space thus being liberated for citizens to walk around and enjoy the historical buildings.

On the other hand, however, there has always been a noticeable division of the subgroups living in historical centres, which means that they fail to achieve the group identification necessary for solving problems facing all of them, while bringing out their socio-economic diversity and multiculturalness.

### **3. The historical centre of the city of León**

Sustainable Development – 240 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

that, mainly made up of the elderly, is based on tradition and common symbols, and on the knowledge afforded by years of living in the area. In the case of Spain, for the period in question, there were half a million people living in historical centres, with characteristics like those already mentioned, that is an elderly population with major shortcomings in services and accommodation, with a mean unemployment rate of 27.6% and 21.6% of the population with only elementary education. They are the only areas with a major amount of rented accommodation (44.5%) and a high proportion of empty dwellings (21.3%) (http://habitat.aq.upm.es/doc.html). In general, over half of the residents were born outside the municipal boundaries and are of low social classes. A quarter of the houses were lying empty and of those occupied, only 25% were owner-occupied. About 40% were

An analysis of references showed us that the areas in question had suffered deterioration in building and planning quality as well as falling behind socially and environmentally, some of them affected by social exclusion, an increase in the elderly population and people with low resources, neglect of buildings by well-off, etc. this brought about a crisis of economic activity, with the loss of traditional activities, the occupation by marginalized groups of buildings with inadequate sanitation that made them difficult to live in, and a consequent proliferation of tenement slums. The social image of these areas fell, and this deterioration

To this situation of depopulation and neglect there must be added the difficult problem arising from the new functionality being acquired by these neighbourhoods, now leisure areas, with an increasing number of bars and restaurants, which in principle met the demand of a cultural tourist sector offered by the area through the historical buildings and museums normally situated in such areas. This saturation of bars and the like, and their impact on night life and their concentration in certain parts of historical centres has discouraged new residents from entering the areas, along with other commercial functions and services. What we have seen is that the rehabilitation of these areas has become a pressing question, for they needed a very careful reformation in order not to affect their historical atmosphere and character and increase their vitality, and even their

A similar process in these southern European centres, according to another study about León, (Fernández, 2000) has consisted, as the catastrophic tendency has waned, in new population groups coming into these districts, and not only the socially excluded, ethnic minorities or foreigners in precarious employment situations. Attracted by the gradual processes of restoration, young professional people are moving in, choosing these areas for their accessibility and central position. Moreover, the rehabilitation plans carried out have generally formed part of public programmes with European funding, mainly through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), such as those mentioned above (Urban, Re Urban, etc.) They have the advantage of setting up networks of cities with similar problems, affording the possibility of information exchanges and synergies (http://europa.eu.int/

The effects have been varied and, at times, limited, mainly in small and medium-sized cities. The positive effects have served to establish guidelines for renovation, and grime, filth and damp have gradually given way to colour. The preservation of historical centres has become

severely dilapidated.

gradually spread to neighbouring districts.

picturesqueness (various authors, Places to Live, 2003).

comm/regional policy/intro/regions1 en.htm).

After this brief overview, we shall now concentrate on the case of León, where, after a period of lethargy, the strategies applied are fairly typical of those outlined above.

In León, three factors come together which, according to J. Borja (1997, 2003), are necessary for the success of urban transformation projects: the sensation of acute crisis brought on by the awareness of the globalization of the economy, the harmonization of public and private urban key players together with the generation of local leadership (both political and civic), and the joint will and consensus of the citizens for the city to take a step forward, both physically and socio-economically and culturally.

Thus, León, with the brokerage of the council and the impulse of the global macroeconomic current imposed and facilitated by the European Union, and under the auspices of the Regional Development Fund, in the 1990s, sought the revitalization of its old quarter but with criteria that in some way were imposed on it from outside. Thus arose the Urban pilot project "Building León: a Development Proposal for the Old City 1995-1999", which, while also potentially applicable to other historical cities centres in the European Union, sought to bring new life to the historical centre of León. It was felt necessary to involve young people and revitalize the economy of the area by attracting small and medium-sized firms, and to improve the quality of life of the residents. In this way, the historical centre would not merely be a collection of historical buildings for tourists and visitors but the living district that it historically used to be, a place with its own identity and, in short, the definite and dynamic urban reality which, also historically, it has sought through the consensus of physical, social and economic structures. Furthermore, these projects include the idea of competitiveness at different levels, both internal, within the city, and external, with other similar cities, both Spanish and European. And this idea of competitiveness has made itself very much felt in the territorial debate, according to Díaz Orueta (1997). Because of it, and in line with globalizing and subsidy-based policies, there has been an on-going struggle to attract investment. Much effort has been made to modernize infrastructures, and much money has been spent on defining strategies to determine the place León should take in the hierarchies of cities.

The work of social and political groups functioning in the district, which has had partial and isolated successes in line with Rossi's ideas (2004), is to be interpreted as directed at organizing the group and establishing an infrastructure for social dynamics leading to coexistence, solidarity and an improvement of the quality of life. A significant case was the

People, Places and History – Towards the Sustainability of Social Life in Traditional Environments 243

The district's central position means that the normal way of getting about within the city is walking, 70.4% of the population using this means, with journey times of 15-20 minutes, although half of the homes have one car and 18% have two while a third have none. In turn, of those who have cars, half have access to garage space or pay for a parking place, while the other half leave their vehicles parked in the streets, which causes thoroughfare problems

Fieldwork shows that one of the means of creating cohesion in the quarter is through the mutual personal acquaintance of residents. The certainty of meeting the same people every day creates affinity, which is borne out by statistics: more than a quarter of the residents of the old city (25.7%) have lived there all their lives, and the remainder have been there fore varying periods, ranging from 10-25 years (18%), 6-10 years (11.2%) to under 5 years (10.2%). Of those who have moved into the area, over half (54.3%) said that the accommodation was what they wanted, that the centre was near, and a third said that their places of work or study were near. Regarding social life in the quarter, most residents consider themselves fairly or very involved in it, which contrasts with the fact that most of them find out what is happening in the area through the local press or television and radio, while 10.3% find out from the residents' association, 4.6% from the parish church and a few (4.1%) because they see what happens personally. Just over half (54.4%) do not feel adequately informed about local issues. A similar percentage (54.6%) say that they know of some association at work in the area like the residents' association, a social or community grouping working for the district or for some sector such as tradesmen or caterers, or for the local heritage or NGOs. Nevertheless, the real percentage of active participation in the life of the district is only

Relationships between residents may be said to be good, and over half of them (53.3%) say that they have relatives or friends in the area, and see them often, perhaps daily and at least weekly. Half of the residents of the old town would recommend others to move into the area, for its central position and convenience, although they would not recommend it from

Most of the residents are owner-occupiers (61.2%). Given the age of the buildings, few upper flats have lifts, only 15.5%, and the same may be said for central heating (12.1%), and that in a city where the weather is cold for 8 months of the year. 68.4% of residents tend to use

The level of satisfaction of residents of the area with their housing is very variable. The main complaints concern the condition of the roofs and ceilings, heating and the quality of the windows, all of which are connected with the external environment (climate, noise

Another source of complaints is the lack of facilities for children, of play areas, and the excess of noise at night, together with the lack of services for the elderly and of cultural activities and facilities. The points of greatest satisfaction are the numbers of restaurants and cafés, street cleaning and the novel system of pneumatic selective refuse disposal, installed

But the general feeling among the residents is one of improvement, especially over the last few years, at least as far as outward appearances are concerned, as in this regard, the

because of the recent pedestrianization of a number of streets.

17.9%, as opposed to 82.1% who say that they do not participate.

diverse types of gas, diesel, coal and electric fires and heaters.

the noise point of view.

pollution, age of the buildings, etc.).

under the auspices of the Urban pilot project.

"León Típico" Residents' Association, which had a major social and political impact (Fernández, 1997), originally based on opposition to the previous political regime in its struggle for the artistic and cultural heritage of the district. But now, because of the absolute lack of stimuli, and the loss of interest of the citizenry, it has largely given up solidarity to concentrate on improving the quality of life. This means peace, being able to enjoy a walk, no noise at night and, if necessary, the possibility of bringing charges against annoying bars or other premises causing any kind of nuisance (noise, drugs, and so on). But this piecemeal work, though positive, must include a search for alternatives to the stagnation of the problems of the resident population.

The Urban pilot project had praiseworthy aims, for it sought the recuperation of the historical centre as an active and integral part of the city, while giving it a live role, in order to avoid it becoming a merely monumental centre, and improved the appearance and sanitation of the district with a pneumatic system of refuse collection. It did not, however, solve the structural problems concerning the aging population, the situation of its housing, or the functionality of the area as one for night life, which quite definitely affected the quality of life through noise pollution. These are the main problems facing the old quarter of León and those which the residents consider the most worrying.

Specifically, the residents mention such problems as the deficient state of their homes, the loss of crafts and commercial activities, an aging population and the abandonment of the area as one of residence, in relation to its night life, which engenders high levels of pollution, especially at weekends. Although the old quarter is set in the centre of the city of León, major functional changes have taken place in it and in the city as a whole: as a place of residence it is in decline, as 1900 residents have left in the last ten years; there has been a loss of activity as a result of the changes in the location of administrative services; religious and educational functions have been run down, though not as regards space, owing to the drop in the number of students and in the numbers of residents of religious homes an convents. On the other hand, art, culture and tourism have grown in importance. Trade has been strengthened in some of the better-known streets, which have been renovated, but to the detriment of other parts of the district, where it has disappeared altogether. The southern part of the old quarter, known as the *Barrio Húmedo*, or "Damp Quarter" retains its major role as a night spot. Bars, restaurants and discothèques take up most of the business premises, almost to the exclusion of other shops or services, causing much nuisance to residents through the great amount of noise generated at night.

As has already been said, the population of the historical centre was 5,364 in 2004. Over 60s account for a third of the total, at 1,832. Another significant fact that we observed is that 16% of the homes are occupied by people living alone. Although the population is mainly an aging one, young professional people are moving in, as there are signs of the rehabilitation of the area. Although most of the population comprises Spanish nationals, at given moments, foreign immigrants and ethnic minorities have set up in this area owing to the availability of cheap housing, usually with deficient sanitation. At present, foreigners account for only 3% of the population.

As for the socio-economic structure, over 85% of the population has at least received primary education, 34.6% having been to university. Although a variety of occupations are represented, 27.8% of the population is retired.

Sustainable Development – 242 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

"León Típico" Residents' Association, which had a major social and political impact (Fernández, 1997), originally based on opposition to the previous political regime in its struggle for the artistic and cultural heritage of the district. But now, because of the absolute lack of stimuli, and the loss of interest of the citizenry, it has largely given up solidarity to concentrate on improving the quality of life. This means peace, being able to enjoy a walk, no noise at night and, if necessary, the possibility of bringing charges against annoying bars or other premises causing any kind of nuisance (noise, drugs, and so on). But this piecemeal work, though positive, must include a search for alternatives to the stagnation of the

The Urban pilot project had praiseworthy aims, for it sought the recuperation of the historical centre as an active and integral part of the city, while giving it a live role, in order to avoid it becoming a merely monumental centre, and improved the appearance and sanitation of the district with a pneumatic system of refuse collection. It did not, however, solve the structural problems concerning the aging population, the situation of its housing, or the functionality of the area as one for night life, which quite definitely affected the quality of life through noise pollution. These are the main problems facing the old quarter of

Specifically, the residents mention such problems as the deficient state of their homes, the loss of crafts and commercial activities, an aging population and the abandonment of the area as one of residence, in relation to its night life, which engenders high levels of pollution, especially at weekends. Although the old quarter is set in the centre of the city of León, major functional changes have taken place in it and in the city as a whole: as a place of residence it is in decline, as 1900 residents have left in the last ten years; there has been a loss of activity as a result of the changes in the location of administrative services; religious and educational functions have been run down, though not as regards space, owing to the drop in the number of students and in the numbers of residents of religious homes an convents. On the other hand, art, culture and tourism have grown in importance. Trade has been strengthened in some of the better-known streets, which have been renovated, but to the detriment of other parts of the district, where it has disappeared altogether. The southern part of the old quarter, known as the *Barrio Húmedo*, or "Damp Quarter" retains its major role as a night spot. Bars, restaurants and discothèques take up most of the business premises, almost to the exclusion of other shops or services, causing much nuisance to

As has already been said, the population of the historical centre was 5,364 in 2004. Over 60s account for a third of the total, at 1,832. Another significant fact that we observed is that 16% of the homes are occupied by people living alone. Although the population is mainly an aging one, young professional people are moving in, as there are signs of the rehabilitation of the area. Although most of the population comprises Spanish nationals, at given moments, foreign immigrants and ethnic minorities have set up in this area owing to the availability of cheap housing, usually with deficient sanitation. At present, foreigners

As for the socio-economic structure, over 85% of the population has at least received primary education, 34.6% having been to university. Although a variety of occupations are

León and those which the residents consider the most worrying.

residents through the great amount of noise generated at night.

account for only 3% of the population.

represented, 27.8% of the population is retired.

problems of the resident population.

The district's central position means that the normal way of getting about within the city is walking, 70.4% of the population using this means, with journey times of 15-20 minutes, although half of the homes have one car and 18% have two while a third have none. In turn, of those who have cars, half have access to garage space or pay for a parking place, while the other half leave their vehicles parked in the streets, which causes thoroughfare problems because of the recent pedestrianization of a number of streets.

Fieldwork shows that one of the means of creating cohesion in the quarter is through the mutual personal acquaintance of residents. The certainty of meeting the same people every day creates affinity, which is borne out by statistics: more than a quarter of the residents of the old city (25.7%) have lived there all their lives, and the remainder have been there fore varying periods, ranging from 10-25 years (18%), 6-10 years (11.2%) to under 5 years (10.2%). Of those who have moved into the area, over half (54.3%) said that the accommodation was what they wanted, that the centre was near, and a third said that their places of work or study were near. Regarding social life in the quarter, most residents consider themselves fairly or very involved in it, which contrasts with the fact that most of them find out what is happening in the area through the local press or television and radio, while 10.3% find out from the residents' association, 4.6% from the parish church and a few (4.1%) because they see what happens personally. Just over half (54.4%) do not feel adequately informed about local issues. A similar percentage (54.6%) say that they know of some association at work in the area like the residents' association, a social or community grouping working for the district or for some sector such as tradesmen or caterers, or for the local heritage or NGOs. Nevertheless, the real percentage of active participation in the life of the district is only 17.9%, as opposed to 82.1% who say that they do not participate.

Relationships between residents may be said to be good, and over half of them (53.3%) say that they have relatives or friends in the area, and see them often, perhaps daily and at least weekly. Half of the residents of the old town would recommend others to move into the area, for its central position and convenience, although they would not recommend it from the noise point of view.

Most of the residents are owner-occupiers (61.2%). Given the age of the buildings, few upper flats have lifts, only 15.5%, and the same may be said for central heating (12.1%), and that in a city where the weather is cold for 8 months of the year. 68.4% of residents tend to use diverse types of gas, diesel, coal and electric fires and heaters.

The level of satisfaction of residents of the area with their housing is very variable. The main complaints concern the condition of the roofs and ceilings, heating and the quality of the windows, all of which are connected with the external environment (climate, noise pollution, age of the buildings, etc.).

Another source of complaints is the lack of facilities for children, of play areas, and the excess of noise at night, together with the lack of services for the elderly and of cultural activities and facilities. The points of greatest satisfaction are the numbers of restaurants and cafés, street cleaning and the novel system of pneumatic selective refuse disposal, installed under the auspices of the Urban pilot project.

But the general feeling among the residents is one of improvement, especially over the last few years, at least as far as outward appearances are concerned, as in this regard, the

People, Places and History – Towards the Sustainability of Social Life in Traditional Environments 245

of progress is being sought that satisfies the needs of the present without jeopardizing the

One of the typical sustainability proposals that we have seen applied in many historical centres has been the freeing of spaces from traffic. As motor traffic is the main source of urban atmospheric pollution, action must be taken to reduce its impact. As an example, Handy and Clifton (2001) have evaluated the possibility that providing local shopping opportunities will help to reduce automobile dependence. Although local shopping does not show great promise as a strategy for reducing automobile use, but it does show promise as a strategy for enhancing quality of life in neighbourhoods, at least partly by making driving once again a matter of choice. The topic has a complex solution, because, as Black, William R., and Peter Nijkamp (2002) say, "solutions will succeed or fail on the basis of social response". As emissions cannot be stopped altogether, for it is impossible to prohibit all traffic, an effort must be made to rationalize and improve the quality of air through innovative traffic policies, the use of noise-reducing surfaces and public transport policies directed at the improvement of the environment, although, as we have seen, where traffic

Nevertheless, I believe that the role of sustainability in the study of historical centres of this type need not be limited to environmental questions. It would seem necessary to bear in mind other kinds of indicator which in principal could be considered as emerging, such as society and culture, principally in the historical areas that we are dealing with, where taking the old town as a consolidated fact has caused other aspects just as basic to the lives of the citizens to be forgotten. We shall thus be able to bring out the value of the city as a cultural heritage, as a living place, one of co-existence, of commercial and cultural exchange, of the exchange of knowledge, a seat of institutions and a place of leisure. This must also be translated into actions capable of recuperating the normal aspects and activities of the historical city, which are the basis of its formation and development, and which are at risk of disappearing as the result of the burgeoning development of suburbia, with alternatives for

In this regard, one of the aspects to consider is the concentration of the cultural heritage characterizing historical cities, especially their old quarters. This fact determines their close association with a growing type of tourism: cultural tourism, or, more specifically, "heritage tourism". This is the case that Ian Strange (1999: 302) explores. He presents the argument that in some places attempts to reconcile the potentially conflicting and incompatible demands of urban competitiveness and urban sustainability are being pursued through the application of sustainable development policies to the management of local environmental and historical assets. He shows analyses the varying ways in which policy makers in historic cities are engaging in action to regulate localised patterns of economic and physical growth. Indeed, a major dilemma for many small- to medium-sized historic cities revolves around the simultaneous need to manage the conservation of the physical fabric of the city and accommodate the pressures associated with an expanding range of economic development and tourist-related activities and functions. Nevertheless, not all urban heritage is a resource for tourism, and not all spaces attract visitors or offer any significant use for tourism. There are other spaces in the historical quarters which are also lived in, and which have value for the collective memory of the residents. Evidence tells us that the rehabilitation of certain spaces with a monumental or historical value has been to the detriment and neglect of areas

noise has been eliminated, other forms of noise pollution have taken its place.

coexistence totally detached from the traditional urban nucleus.

ability of future generations to satisfy their own needs.

changes have been far-reaching. This has been helped by the policy of pedestrianization, as the removal of motor traffic has improved the quality of the environment, while the renovation of streets, squares and façades has improved the general appearance. But the main problem, nocturnal noise pollution, has yet to be solved. It may also be the source of another problem, vandalism directed against renovated street furniture.

The perception of the district's future for most residents (60.4%) is positive, while a minority of 19% consider it negative. Despite this, answers about the future of the quarter are equally divided into those who think that it will be restored, and that it will have nothing but bars and restaurants, and those who think that it will depend on the will of the council and of the politicians in power at any given moment. It is significant that 18.5% of the people would move to another district if they could, because of the problem of noise at night, especially at weekends.

In short, we have found some positive feelings among the population of the historical centre regarding a gradual recuperation of the population (which is false, as the statistics show), the accessibility of the city centre, improvements brought about by the pedestrianization of certain areas, improvements to façades and streets and the area's becoming attractive as a residential one because of its architecture and historical setting. Also mentioned are the social atmosphere, the air quality, the cleanliness of the streets and the system of refuse disposal, together with good relations among residents, the number of bars and restaurants, a favourable opinion concerning the overall situation of the last few years and positive feelings regarding the district's future as a residential area. Negative feelings recorded concentrate on the excessively aged population and the number of homes with over sixties living alone and who depend on their old-age pensions, which are usually low. There is also some unrest concerning the state of housing, usually with regard to its age, the conditions of the streets and pavements, the levels of noise at night, the lack of green areas and trees, of children's play areas, of cultural and leisure facilities and of public social centres, activities for the young, sports fields, centres for the aged and public social centres in general, together with the physical state of buildings, poor access to information, and so on.

#### **4. Towards the sustainability of historical quarters**

It has now become quite necessary to apply the criterion of sustainability to city planning and development. At the world level, one of the initiatives of the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 was to foment local initiatives to support sustainable development. In Europe, the Treaty of Amsterdam of 1999 confirmed in articles 2 and 6 that balanced and sustainable development, together with the protection and improvement of the environment, were basic aims of the European Union. The criterion of sustainability, however, has not been felt excessively in historical cities, which are in the process of change and development.

Brugmann (1992) and Tjallingii (1995) proposed considering the city as an ecosystem and using ecological concepts to understand the problems of urban sustainability and find solutions for them. It is certainly true that advances are being made in the construction of the city, approaching the aims of sustainability, of a modern and dynamic city developing in an attractive setting, and one that is healthy from the environmental point of view. Through a strategy of integration of the environmental elements of different sectorial policies, a kind Sustainable Development – 244 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

changes have been far-reaching. This has been helped by the policy of pedestrianization, as the removal of motor traffic has improved the quality of the environment, while the renovation of streets, squares and façades has improved the general appearance. But the main problem, nocturnal noise pollution, has yet to be solved. It may also be the source of

The perception of the district's future for most residents (60.4%) is positive, while a minority of 19% consider it negative. Despite this, answers about the future of the quarter are equally divided into those who think that it will be restored, and that it will have nothing but bars and restaurants, and those who think that it will depend on the will of the council and of the politicians in power at any given moment. It is significant that 18.5% of the people would move to another district if they could, because of the problem of noise at night, especially at

In short, we have found some positive feelings among the population of the historical centre regarding a gradual recuperation of the population (which is false, as the statistics show), the accessibility of the city centre, improvements brought about by the pedestrianization of certain areas, improvements to façades and streets and the area's becoming attractive as a residential one because of its architecture and historical setting. Also mentioned are the social atmosphere, the air quality, the cleanliness of the streets and the system of refuse disposal, together with good relations among residents, the number of bars and restaurants, a favourable opinion concerning the overall situation of the last few years and positive feelings regarding the district's future as a residential area. Negative feelings recorded concentrate on the excessively aged population and the number of homes with over sixties living alone and who depend on their old-age pensions, which are usually low. There is also some unrest concerning the state of housing, usually with regard to its age, the conditions of the streets and pavements, the levels of noise at night, the lack of green areas and trees, of children's play areas, of cultural and leisure facilities and of public social centres, activities for the young, sports fields, centres for the aged and public social centres in general,

together with the physical state of buildings, poor access to information, and so on.

It has now become quite necessary to apply the criterion of sustainability to city planning and development. At the world level, one of the initiatives of the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 was to foment local initiatives to support sustainable development. In Europe, the Treaty of Amsterdam of 1999 confirmed in articles 2 and 6 that balanced and sustainable development, together with the protection and improvement of the environment, were basic aims of the European Union. The criterion of sustainability, however, has not been felt excessively in historical cities, which are in the process of change

Brugmann (1992) and Tjallingii (1995) proposed considering the city as an ecosystem and using ecological concepts to understand the problems of urban sustainability and find solutions for them. It is certainly true that advances are being made in the construction of the city, approaching the aims of sustainability, of a modern and dynamic city developing in an attractive setting, and one that is healthy from the environmental point of view. Through a strategy of integration of the environmental elements of different sectorial policies, a kind

**4. Towards the sustainability of historical quarters** 

another problem, vandalism directed against renovated street furniture.

weekends.

and development.

of progress is being sought that satisfies the needs of the present without jeopardizing the ability of future generations to satisfy their own needs.

One of the typical sustainability proposals that we have seen applied in many historical centres has been the freeing of spaces from traffic. As motor traffic is the main source of urban atmospheric pollution, action must be taken to reduce its impact. As an example, Handy and Clifton (2001) have evaluated the possibility that providing local shopping opportunities will help to reduce automobile dependence. Although local shopping does not show great promise as a strategy for reducing automobile use, but it does show promise as a strategy for enhancing quality of life in neighbourhoods, at least partly by making driving once again a matter of choice. The topic has a complex solution, because, as Black, William R., and Peter Nijkamp (2002) say, "solutions will succeed or fail on the basis of social response". As emissions cannot be stopped altogether, for it is impossible to prohibit all traffic, an effort must be made to rationalize and improve the quality of air through innovative traffic policies, the use of noise-reducing surfaces and public transport policies directed at the improvement of the environment, although, as we have seen, where traffic noise has been eliminated, other forms of noise pollution have taken its place.

Nevertheless, I believe that the role of sustainability in the study of historical centres of this type need not be limited to environmental questions. It would seem necessary to bear in mind other kinds of indicator which in principal could be considered as emerging, such as society and culture, principally in the historical areas that we are dealing with, where taking the old town as a consolidated fact has caused other aspects just as basic to the lives of the citizens to be forgotten. We shall thus be able to bring out the value of the city as a cultural heritage, as a living place, one of co-existence, of commercial and cultural exchange, of the exchange of knowledge, a seat of institutions and a place of leisure. This must also be translated into actions capable of recuperating the normal aspects and activities of the historical city, which are the basis of its formation and development, and which are at risk of disappearing as the result of the burgeoning development of suburbia, with alternatives for coexistence totally detached from the traditional urban nucleus.

In this regard, one of the aspects to consider is the concentration of the cultural heritage characterizing historical cities, especially their old quarters. This fact determines their close association with a growing type of tourism: cultural tourism, or, more specifically, "heritage tourism". This is the case that Ian Strange (1999: 302) explores. He presents the argument that in some places attempts to reconcile the potentially conflicting and incompatible demands of urban competitiveness and urban sustainability are being pursued through the application of sustainable development policies to the management of local environmental and historical assets. He shows analyses the varying ways in which policy makers in historic cities are engaging in action to regulate localised patterns of economic and physical growth. Indeed, a major dilemma for many small- to medium-sized historic cities revolves around the simultaneous need to manage the conservation of the physical fabric of the city and accommodate the pressures associated with an expanding range of economic development and tourist-related activities and functions. Nevertheless, not all urban heritage is a resource for tourism, and not all spaces attract visitors or offer any significant use for tourism. There are other spaces in the historical quarters which are also lived in, and which have value for the collective memory of the residents. Evidence tells us that the rehabilitation of certain spaces with a monumental or historical value has been to the detriment and neglect of areas

People, Places and History – Towards the Sustainability of Social Life in Traditional Environments 247

certainly, it is not possible to base sustainability only on souvenir shops in the daytime and bars and restaurants at night. While on the subject of education, I would suggest that there should be education in ethics for the young, together with alternatives to alcohol-based nocturnal leisure in bars and discothèques that are open well into the small hours of the morning. Such measures could be evening sports activities and a management of culture allowing for a more affordable culture for young people. The noise pollution caused by existing leisure activities is a new source of annoyance in these cities, and, as we have seen, many historical centres that have managed to rid themselves of the noise generated by traffic are suffering from the noise produced by the aggressive spread of nocturnal leisure. It is certainly true that southern European cultures, especially Mediterranean ones, and noticeably in Spain, are characterized by celebrations and street life, and therefore by rowdy open-air partying. But it is just as true that in our cultural environment, noise is becoming more and more a source of urban annoyance. There is a problem of the proliferation of fixed points of noise pollution such as discothèques, bars, open-air terraces and other leisure-time activities. The conflict between the right to rest and the right to leisure and social relationships is generating new urban unrest, in some cases of a serious nature, which is making it necessary to set up mechanisms of dialogue, shared responsibility and arbitration. However, the socio-cultural life of such places is also an asset that makes them attractive and contributes to local vitality and vibrancy in a way that buildings and artefacts do not, (and is not easily separated into what is either critical or tradable capital). In this particular case, communication channels must be opened up between those who run bars and shops, youth groups and residents to find a solution based on the satisfactory compromise of rights. In this regard, in the local setting, campaigns of awareness, education and environmental information have an effective background for generating social change, for it would seem that they get feedback from processes of community participation and are more permeable to the influence of ecological and environmental organizations. Therefore, cities play a basic role in changing their citizens' habits and values regarding the new paradigm of

Most of these problems are typical of the historical centres of our cities. But we might consider that the solution to many of them depends on transforming these historical centres into places of convergence where there are activities with an obvious function within the framework of the city as a whole. Considering and studying them in a piecemeal way and in isolation will give us a sectorial view, with an obvious dysfunctionalness leading to degradation and destruction through their separation from the rest of the city. They will have to be considered within global strategies, at the same level as the rest of the city and its zones of influence, as part of a cultural legacy belonging to the whole community and forming part of a dynamic process in which the old city has a number of attributes that can neither be repeated nor regained. When the elderly people of the area speak to us of bygone days, of time immemorial, what is really essential is the message: the proclamation of the prestige and age of the city, the idea of a past with a presence in the present. But the most interesting thing is how they cling on to them emotionally. This is all the clearer when they tell their personal experiences, however disastrous. As long ago as 1946, Annoni pointed out that the historical centres of cities collaborated in the development of a modern town, insofar as they offer culture, rest and leisure. This obliges us to find a concept of Historical Centre within the context of the city, not just to preserve its history, but also to look after its

sustainable development.

social life.

without such value. It cannot be denied that the association of culture, tourism and historical cities has obvious advantages for communities and the places that are home to them, such as income from visitors, the physical and functional renovation of the areas in question, and so on, but it also has a number of negative effects of growing importance. As far as space is concerned, these effects are especially felt in a small part of the old city defined as a "historical city of interest to tourists". Together with the advocacy of urban sustainability, there arises the need for models of tourism development able to maximize the benefits and minimize the costs of attracting tourists, especially in the more fragile and vulnerable sectors. Likewise, a better flow of information concerning the projects and programmes in any way affecting the neighbourhood and its inhabitants will contribute to social sustainability, while also stimulating the participation of the citizens in the face of the tendency for today's society to become less and less solidarity-minded, as we have seen in the countryside. Of course, it would be desirable to enhance local management with integrated decision making involving public and private institutions and the community at large. In many Local Agenda 21 cities, an opportunity to renew, innovate and increase the processes of participation is arising in this way. The community's involvement in these processes of gradual and strategic change is a fundamental condition for their success. In this regard, Agenda 21 offers a forum and processes that could strengthen the community. Some Spanish cities, such as Barcelona and Granada, or even, Swedish (Adolfsson Jörby, 2002) or Austrian (Astleithner and Hamedinger, 2003, and Narodoslawsky, 2001) or Italian ones, as borne out by Sancassiani's recent study (2005) have approached them as governance experiences, where different key players take part in the processes and take on their share of the joint responsibility regarding the shared goals. These are, then, participative processes directed at establishing a different relationship between the local authorities and the various social actors at work.

Another point to consider is the increased value of the built-up city and the improvement of its infrastructures, fomenting their recycling and preserving the architectural heritage. This would enrich cultural identity, while improving the aesthetic quality of the townscape. Generating urban diversity and complexity (in residence, economic activity, culture and services) would help to reduce the need for mobility, which would make the city more attractive as a place to live, work and offer services. The substantial improvement of living conditions and social cohesion, and of quality of life (housing, education, work, health, culture, leisure, and so on) would help us to regain the idea of a city as a common project of its citizens.

Likewise, there arises the need to stimulate economic dynamism, which would be helped by the setting up of workshops and schools of traditional activities linked with the area, such as restoration, plastic arts, crafts, etc., where education and training would be a first step towards economic consolidation. In this concern, Summers, M., Childs, A., Corney, G. (2005) show the case of education for sustainable development (ESD) in initial teacher training. They find that schools are not yet well developed as sites for student teacher learning in the domain; student teachers generally have greater understanding of sustainable development than their mentors; geography mentors perceive themselves to be better prepared for mentoring in this area than their science counterparts (who feel ill-prepared); for both students and mentors, there are significant gaps in understanding of education for sustainable development. The transmission to lower levels may be significant also. But Sustainable Development – 246 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

without such value. It cannot be denied that the association of culture, tourism and historical cities has obvious advantages for communities and the places that are home to them, such as income from visitors, the physical and functional renovation of the areas in question, and so on, but it also has a number of negative effects of growing importance. As far as space is concerned, these effects are especially felt in a small part of the old city defined as a "historical city of interest to tourists". Together with the advocacy of urban sustainability, there arises the need for models of tourism development able to maximize the benefits and minimize the costs of attracting tourists, especially in the more fragile and vulnerable sectors. Likewise, a better flow of information concerning the projects and programmes in any way affecting the neighbourhood and its inhabitants will contribute to social sustainability, while also stimulating the participation of the citizens in the face of the tendency for today's society to become less and less solidarity-minded, as we have seen in the countryside. Of course, it would be desirable to enhance local management with integrated decision making involving public and private institutions and the community at large. In many Local Agenda 21 cities, an opportunity to renew, innovate and increase the processes of participation is arising in this way. The community's involvement in these processes of gradual and strategic change is a fundamental condition for their success. In this regard, Agenda 21 offers a forum and processes that could strengthen the community. Some Spanish cities, such as Barcelona and Granada, or even, Swedish (Adolfsson Jörby, 2002) or Austrian (Astleithner and Hamedinger, 2003, and Narodoslawsky, 2001) or Italian ones, as borne out by Sancassiani's recent study (2005) have approached them as governance experiences, where different key players take part in the processes and take on their share of the joint responsibility regarding the shared goals. These are, then, participative processes directed at establishing a different relationship between the local

Another point to consider is the increased value of the built-up city and the improvement of its infrastructures, fomenting their recycling and preserving the architectural heritage. This would enrich cultural identity, while improving the aesthetic quality of the townscape. Generating urban diversity and complexity (in residence, economic activity, culture and services) would help to reduce the need for mobility, which would make the city more attractive as a place to live, work and offer services. The substantial improvement of living conditions and social cohesion, and of quality of life (housing, education, work, health, culture, leisure, and so on) would help us to regain the idea of a city as a common project of

Likewise, there arises the need to stimulate economic dynamism, which would be helped by the setting up of workshops and schools of traditional activities linked with the area, such as restoration, plastic arts, crafts, etc., where education and training would be a first step towards economic consolidation. In this concern, Summers, M., Childs, A., Corney, G. (2005) show the case of education for sustainable development (ESD) in initial teacher training. They find that schools are not yet well developed as sites for student teacher learning in the domain; student teachers generally have greater understanding of sustainable development than their mentors; geography mentors perceive themselves to be better prepared for mentoring in this area than their science counterparts (who feel ill-prepared); for both students and mentors, there are significant gaps in understanding of education for sustainable development. The transmission to lower levels may be significant also. But

authorities and the various social actors at work.

its citizens.

certainly, it is not possible to base sustainability only on souvenir shops in the daytime and bars and restaurants at night. While on the subject of education, I would suggest that there should be education in ethics for the young, together with alternatives to alcohol-based nocturnal leisure in bars and discothèques that are open well into the small hours of the morning. Such measures could be evening sports activities and a management of culture allowing for a more affordable culture for young people. The noise pollution caused by existing leisure activities is a new source of annoyance in these cities, and, as we have seen, many historical centres that have managed to rid themselves of the noise generated by traffic are suffering from the noise produced by the aggressive spread of nocturnal leisure. It is certainly true that southern European cultures, especially Mediterranean ones, and noticeably in Spain, are characterized by celebrations and street life, and therefore by rowdy open-air partying. But it is just as true that in our cultural environment, noise is becoming more and more a source of urban annoyance. There is a problem of the proliferation of fixed points of noise pollution such as discothèques, bars, open-air terraces and other leisure-time activities. The conflict between the right to rest and the right to leisure and social relationships is generating new urban unrest, in some cases of a serious nature, which is making it necessary to set up mechanisms of dialogue, shared responsibility and arbitration. However, the socio-cultural life of such places is also an asset that makes them attractive and contributes to local vitality and vibrancy in a way that buildings and artefacts do not, (and is not easily separated into what is either critical or tradable capital). In this particular case, communication channels must be opened up between those who run bars and shops, youth groups and residents to find a solution based on the satisfactory compromise of rights. In this regard, in the local setting, campaigns of awareness, education and environmental information have an effective background for generating social change, for it would seem that they get feedback from processes of community participation and are more permeable to the influence of ecological and environmental organizations. Therefore, cities play a basic role in changing their citizens' habits and values regarding the new paradigm of sustainable development.

Most of these problems are typical of the historical centres of our cities. But we might consider that the solution to many of them depends on transforming these historical centres into places of convergence where there are activities with an obvious function within the framework of the city as a whole. Considering and studying them in a piecemeal way and in isolation will give us a sectorial view, with an obvious dysfunctionalness leading to degradation and destruction through their separation from the rest of the city. They will have to be considered within global strategies, at the same level as the rest of the city and its zones of influence, as part of a cultural legacy belonging to the whole community and forming part of a dynamic process in which the old city has a number of attributes that can neither be repeated nor regained. When the elderly people of the area speak to us of bygone days, of time immemorial, what is really essential is the message: the proclamation of the prestige and age of the city, the idea of a past with a presence in the present. But the most interesting thing is how they cling on to them emotionally. This is all the clearer when they tell their personal experiences, however disastrous. As long ago as 1946, Annoni pointed out that the historical centres of cities collaborated in the development of a modern town, insofar as they offer culture, rest and leisure. This obliges us to find a concept of Historical Centre within the context of the city, not just to preserve its history, but also to look after its social life.

People, Places and History – Towards the Sustainability of Social Life in Traditional Environments 249

Many of the challenges and problems mentioned will only be sorted out (legal, fiscal and regulatory policies aside) with a new social consensus allowing for a change in attitudes and daily behaviour patterns of most of the people. The historical city is the background to the processes of collective identification, of belonging, which creates community, and it is in that community environment that new alliances of sustainability must be created. The positive role of local government and of the city as a whole are, owing to their proximity and permeability, generally recognized, but there is still a long way to go. And the way is not without obstacles, for as humans we have to recognize that we are all somewhat contradictory and we want a lot of things at the same time. But we must remain aware of the demands that the discourse on urban sustainability creates if we want more than well-

The cultural standpoint, and that of Europe's historical heritage, should regain the taste for human projects, advocating the city of Erasmus (quoted by A. Clayton and N. Radcliffe, 1994), who, far better than modern town-planners and humanists, recognized that the ultimate goal of any discipline had to be the improvement of the quality of life of the human

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Ashworth, G. J., Tunbridge, J. E. (1999) "Old cities, new pasts: Heritage Planning in selected

Astleithner, F., Hamedinger, A. (2003)"Urban Sustainability as a New Form of Governance:

Baker, S., Kousis, M., Richardson, D. & Young, S. (1997) Introduction: the theory and

Black, W. R., and Nijkamp, P. (eds.) (2002) *Social Change and* Sustainable Transport, Indiana

Blowers, A. & Evans, B. (Eds) (1997) *Town Planning into the 21st Century*. London: Routledge. Blowers, A. (1997) Society and sustainability: the context of change for planning, in: A.

Borja, J., & Castells, M. (1996) *Local y Global: la gestión de las ciudades en la era de la información,*

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Now may be the time to consider again the city as a joint project, as a space for human relationships, as a place where there will inevitably be conflicts, which can and must be resolved via consensus and not by the imposition of a dominating element, by applying to problems created over a long period of time solutions that are not quantified in units of time measured by political legislatures. But above all, it is fundamental that we should seek a project of a city for the future from a more comprehensive point of view than today's, transcending the interests of political parties and economic groups, with our sights always on the people. In short, what is sought is to maintain, or even regain the original urban structure of the city as an area that is lived in, and stressing the value of the historical centre and its importance in the development of the city.

### **5. Conclusion**

The historical centres of cities still have their character as multifunctional areas but the pace of renovation of facilities is quite slow and this impedes competition with other more dynamic neighbourhoods.

In the object of our study, the old city of León, through its historical buildings, it is a symbol of the whole city and the seat of many of its urban, social and cultural values. Moreover, it is a dynamic urban reality which throughout history has striven to strike a balance between physical, social and economic structures. The old city is living through a critical situation where there are obviously many difficulties when it comes to finding an operational model that allows it to get away from the cycle of physical, social, cultural and functional deterioration.

The residents of the historical area have lived there for a long time and many of the old buildings are inadequate and occupied by single people living alone. There is a low percentage of young people, and hardly any in middle age. Although over half the population feel that the district has improved in general over the last few years, people would like to see green spaces, public, social and cultural services, shops, more trade in general and anything that will give more daytime life to the area.

In this regard, we have drawn up a proposal of sustainability for areas of this type which, through criteria of culture and society, seeks to contribute to revitalizing the commercial and leisure activities normal in a consolidated city, by means of specific actions like the maintaining of the resident population, encouraging the refurbishment of old homes, along with the preservation of their topological characteristics and their adaptation to the demands of today's life, and attracting new generations so that they will, together with the present population, guarantee the survival of activities and urban co-existence. Furthermore, one of the greatest problems detected is the danger that these historical centres will become mere monumental areas with an exclusively museum-like character, which leads us to conclude that it is important to integrate historical centres in the daily life of whole cities.

Our cities require sustainability, and to achieve it, we need changes in our concept of what a city should be, and to reconsider the way decisions are made regarding certain policies and new outlooks on how to get tomorrow's problems into a political debate focussed on today. This is an urgent task which requires specific commitments and a great capacity to learn. Many of the challenges and problems mentioned will only be sorted out (legal, fiscal and regulatory policies aside) with a new social consensus allowing for a change in attitudes and daily behaviour patterns of most of the people. The historical city is the background to the processes of collective identification, of belonging, which creates community, and it is in that community environment that new alliances of sustainability must be created. The positive role of local government and of the city as a whole are, owing to their proximity and permeability, generally recognized, but there is still a long way to go. And the way is not without obstacles, for as humans we have to recognize that we are all somewhat contradictory and we want a lot of things at the same time. But we must remain aware of the demands that the discourse on urban sustainability creates if we want more than wellmeaning rhetoric.

The cultural standpoint, and that of Europe's historical heritage, should regain the taste for human projects, advocating the city of Erasmus (quoted by A. Clayton and N. Radcliffe, 1994), who, far better than modern town-planners and humanists, recognized that the ultimate goal of any discipline had to be the improvement of the quality of life of the human being in a development compatible with Nature and the environment.

#### **6. References**

Sustainable Development – 248 Policy and Urban Development – Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment

Now may be the time to consider again the city as a joint project, as a space for human relationships, as a place where there will inevitably be conflicts, which can and must be resolved via consensus and not by the imposition of a dominating element, by applying to problems created over a long period of time solutions that are not quantified in units of time measured by political legislatures. But above all, it is fundamental that we should seek a project of a city for the future from a more comprehensive point of view than today's, transcending the interests of political parties and economic groups, with our sights always on the people. In short, what is sought is to maintain, or even regain the original urban structure of the city as an area that is lived in, and stressing the value of the historical centre

The historical centres of cities still have their character as multifunctional areas but the pace of renovation of facilities is quite slow and this impedes competition with other more

In the object of our study, the old city of León, through its historical buildings, it is a symbol of the whole city and the seat of many of its urban, social and cultural values. Moreover, it is a dynamic urban reality which throughout history has striven to strike a balance between physical, social and economic structures. The old city is living through a critical situation where there are obviously many difficulties when it comes to finding an operational model that allows it to get away from the cycle of physical, social, cultural and functional

The residents of the historical area have lived there for a long time and many of the old buildings are inadequate and occupied by single people living alone. There is a low percentage of young people, and hardly any in middle age. Although over half the population feel that the district has improved in general over the last few years, people would like to see green spaces, public, social and cultural services, shops, more trade in

In this regard, we have drawn up a proposal of sustainability for areas of this type which, through criteria of culture and society, seeks to contribute to revitalizing the commercial and leisure activities normal in a consolidated city, by means of specific actions like the maintaining of the resident population, encouraging the refurbishment of old homes, along with the preservation of their topological characteristics and their adaptation to the demands of today's life, and attracting new generations so that they will, together with the present population, guarantee the survival of activities and urban co-existence. Furthermore, one of the greatest problems detected is the danger that these historical centres will become mere monumental areas with an exclusively museum-like character, which leads us to conclude that it is important to integrate historical centres in the daily life of

Our cities require sustainability, and to achieve it, we need changes in our concept of what a city should be, and to reconsider the way decisions are made regarding certain policies and new outlooks on how to get tomorrow's problems into a political debate focussed on today. This is an urgent task which requires specific commitments and a great capacity to learn.

general and anything that will give more daytime life to the area.

and its importance in the development of the city.

**5. Conclusion** 

deterioration.

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**11** 

*Germany* 

**Raise It, Feed It, Keep It –** 

*Hochschule Furtwangen University* 

 **Building a Sustainable Knowledge** 

**Pool Within Your R&D Organization** 

Wiebke Schone, Cornelia Kellermann and Ulrike Busolt

In light of the increasing globalization and economic competitiveness of the emerging countries, a key to competitive advantages of the western European countries, the United States and Japan lies in leveraging their innovative potential. With regard to the costs of living, social security systems and costs of labor, the industrialized countries can hardly compete with the emerging countries in the producing industry. Since neither Europe, the US nor Japan can beat the low production- and low technical development costs of the emerging countries, it is vital for their economies to focus on their key competences: The stimulation and driving of new innovative products to the market by means of inventions

Pursuing this target does not only imply high quality education in science and engineering. The actual economic value reveals itself in the researchers' and scientists' industrial careers, when their knowledge is applied to solving technical problems and is transformed into economic return in terms of inventions, patents and products. Hence, we need to realize the importance not only to recruit high quality experts for our research and development, but furthermore to preserve and build on this knowledge throughout the organization in order to gain a sustainable return of the high Western labor costs through innovative new

This target can be achieved by improving two main aspects within a company's R&D organization: Firstly by creating conditions that secure long term employment of the researchers, and secondly by understanding, improving and nurturing the inventors'

The Western industry is based on its innovative power in research and development. There is a growing demand for highly skilled personnel in science and technology, such as researchers and engineers (BMBF, 2010). The aim must be to include the whole range of the innovative and inventive potential. Especially women represent a high educated potential

and patents within the R&D (research & development) industry.

labor force, whose potential has not been fully tapped into yet.

technologies and scientific findings.

communication within the organization.

**2. State of research** 

**1. Introduction** 

