**3.2.6 Role of the oceans in global warming**

180 Fossil Fuel and the Environment

suggest continuing changes in trends for some extreme events. Solomon *et al.* (2007), for example, projected the following likely (greater than 66% probability, based on expert

Projected changes in extreme events will have predominantly adverse impacts on

*IPCC (2007a:5)* found that, on average, mountain glaciers and snow cover had decreased in

Fig. 9. A map of the change in thickness of mountain glaciers since 1970 (Thinning in orange

This widespread decrease in glaciers and ice caps had contributed to observed sea level rise. With very high or high confidence, *IPCC (2007d: 11)* made a number of projections relating

 In Polar Regions, there will be reductions in glacier extent and the thickness of glaciers. More than one-sixth of the world's populations are supplied by melt-water from major mountain ranges. Changes in glaciers and snow cover are expected to reduce water

 In Latin America, changes in precipitation patterns and the disappearance of glaciers will significantly affect water availability for human consumption, agriculture, and

Increased incidence of extreme high sea level (excluding tsunamis).

judgment) changes:

ecosystems and human society.

and red, thickening in blue).

to future changes in glaciers:

energy production.

Mountainous areas in Europe will face glacier retreat

availability for these populations.

 Increase in the areas affected by drought; Increased tropical cyclone activity and

both the northern and southern hemispheres.

**3.2.5 Glacier retreat since 1850 and disappearance** 

The oceans serve as a sink for carbon dioxide, taking up much that would otherwise remain in the atmosphere, but increased levels of CO2 have led to ocean acidification. Furthermore, as the temperature of the oceans increases, their absorptivity for excess CO2 decreases. The oceans have also acted as a sink in absorbing extra heat from the atmosphere. This extra heat has been added to the climate system due to the build-up of GHGs. More than 90 percent of warming that occurred over 1960–2009 is estimated to have gone into the oceans.

Global warming is projected to have a number of effects on the oceans. Ongoing effects include rising sea levels due to thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and warming of the ocean surface, leading to increased temperature stratification. Other possible effects include large-scale changes in ocean circulation.


Fig. 10. Worldwide cyclone records set by Atlantic storms

The effects of ocean acidification on the marine biosphere have yet to be documented. Laboratory experiments suggest beneficial effects for a few species, with potentially highly detrimental effects for a substantial number of species. With medium confidence, Fischlin *et al.* (2007) projected that future ocean acidification and climate change would impair a wide range of plank tonic and shallow benthic marine organisms that use aragonite to make their shells or skeletons, such as corals and marine snails (pteropods), with significant impacts particularly in the Southern Ocean.


Global Trends of Fossil Fuel Reserves and Climate Change in the 21st Century 183

Fig. 12. Mean surface temperature change for 1999–2008 relative to the average temperatures

 *Social systems*: The impacts of climate change can be thought of in terms of sensitivity and vulnerability. "Sensitivity" is the degree to which a particular system or sector might be affected, positively or negatively, by climate change and/or climate variability. "Vulnerability" is the degree to which a particular system or sector might be

The sensitivity of human society to climate change varies. Sectors sensitive to climate change include water resources, coastal zones, human settlements, and human health. Industries sensitive to climate change include agriculture, fisheries, forestry, energy,

 *Food supply*: Climate change will impact agriculture and food production around the world due to: the effects of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere, higher temperatures, altered precipitation and transpiration regimes, increased frequency of extreme events, and modified weed, pest, and pathogen pressure (Easterling *et al.*, 2007). In general, lowlatitude areas are at most risk of having decreased crop yields (Schneider *et al.*, 2007). So far, the effects of regional climate change on agriculture have been relatively limited. Changes in crop phenology provide important evidence of the response to recent regional climate change. Phenology is the study of natural phenomena that recur periodically, and how these phenomena relate to climate and seasonal changes. A significant advance in phenology has been observed for agriculture and forestry in large

 *Health*: Human beings are exposed to climate change through changing weather patterns (temperature, precipitation, sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events) and indirectly through changes in water, air and food quality and changes in ecosystems, agriculture, industry and settlements and the economy (Confalonieri *et al.*, 2007a). According to a literature assessment, the effects of climate change to date have been small, but are projected to progressively increase in all countries and regions.

construction, insurance, financial services, tourism, and recreation.

from 1940 to 1980

adversely affected by climate change.

parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

projected to rise by 18 to 59 cm (7.1 to 23.2 in) for the time period 2090–99. This projection is with the increase in level relative to average global sea level over the 1980– 99 periods (*Bindoff, NL, et al., 2007*).

The IPCC (2007d, p. 5) reported that between 1961 and 2003, global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year (mm/yr), with an uncertainty range of 1.3– 2.3 mm/yr. Between 1993 and 2003, the rate increased above the previous period to 3.1 mm/yr (uncertainty range of 2.4–3.8 mm/yr).

Fig. 11. (a) Current sea level rise and (b) Sea level rise during the Holocene.

A range of projections suggested possible sea level rise by the end of the 21st century of between 0.56 and 2 m. These projections are based on the same measurement range, with the increase in sea level by 2090-99 measured against average global sea level over the 1980–99 time periods.


There are three major ways in which global warming will make changes to regional climate: melting or forming ice, changing the hydrological cycle (of evaporation and precipitation) and changing currents in the oceans and air flows in the atmosphere. The coast can also be considered a region, and will suffer severe impacts from sea level rise.

99 periods (*Bindoff, NL, et al., 2007*).

the 1980–99 time periods.

absorb CO2.

the global trend.

mm/yr (uncertainty range of 2.4–3.8 mm/yr).

projected to rise by 18 to 59 cm (7.1 to 23.2 in) for the time period 2090–99. This projection is with the increase in level relative to average global sea level over the 1980–

The IPCC (2007d, p. 5) reported that between 1961 and 2003, global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year (mm/yr), with an uncertainty range of 1.3– 2.3 mm/yr. Between 1993 and 2003, the rate increased above the previous period to 3.1

(a) (b)

e. *Ocean temperature rise*: From 1961 to 2003, the global ocean temperature has risen by 0.10 °C from the surface to a depth of 700 m. There is variability both year-to-year and over longer time scales, with global ocean heat content observations showing high rates of warming for 1991–2003, but some cooling from 2003 to 2007 (*Bindoff, NL, 2011*). The temperature of the Antarctic Southern Ocean rose by 0.17 °C (0.31 °F) between the 1950s and the 1980s, nearly twice the rate for the world's oceans as a whole (*Gille, Sarah T, 2002*). As well as having effects on ecosystems (e.g. by melting sea ice, affecting algae that grow on its underside), warming reduces the ocean's ability to

f. *Regional effects of global warming*: Some are the results of a generalised global change, such as rising temperature, resulting in local effects, such as melting ice. In other cases, a change may be related to a change in a particular ocean current or weather system. In such cases, the regional effect may be disproportionate and will not necessarily follow

There are three major ways in which global warming will make changes to regional climate: melting or forming ice, changing the hydrological cycle (of evaporation and precipitation) and changing currents in the oceans and air flows in the atmosphere. The coast can also be

considered a region, and will suffer severe impacts from sea level rise.

A range of projections suggested possible sea level rise by the end of the 21st century of between 0.56 and 2 m. These projections are based on the same measurement range, with the increase in sea level by 2090-99 measured against average global sea level over

Fig. 11. (a) Current sea level rise and (b) Sea level rise during the Holocene.

Fig. 12. Mean surface temperature change for 1999–2008 relative to the average temperatures from 1940 to 1980

 *Social systems*: The impacts of climate change can be thought of in terms of sensitivity and vulnerability. "Sensitivity" is the degree to which a particular system or sector might be affected, positively or negatively, by climate change and/or climate variability. "Vulnerability" is the degree to which a particular system or sector might be adversely affected by climate change.

The sensitivity of human society to climate change varies. Sectors sensitive to climate change include water resources, coastal zones, human settlements, and human health. Industries sensitive to climate change include agriculture, fisheries, forestry, energy, construction, insurance, financial services, tourism, and recreation.

 *Food supply*: Climate change will impact agriculture and food production around the world due to: the effects of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere, higher temperatures, altered precipitation and transpiration regimes, increased frequency of extreme events, and modified weed, pest, and pathogen pressure (Easterling *et al.*, 2007). In general, lowlatitude areas are at most risk of having decreased crop yields (Schneider *et al.*, 2007).

So far, the effects of regional climate change on agriculture have been relatively limited. Changes in crop phenology provide important evidence of the response to recent regional climate change. Phenology is the study of natural phenomena that recur periodically, and how these phenomena relate to climate and seasonal changes. A significant advance in phenology has been observed for agriculture and forestry in large parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

 *Health*: Human beings are exposed to climate change through changing weather patterns (temperature, precipitation, sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events) and indirectly through changes in water, air and food quality and changes in ecosystems, agriculture, industry and settlements and the economy (Confalonieri *et al.*, 2007a). According to a literature assessment, the effects of climate change to date have been small, but are projected to progressively increase in all countries and regions.

Global Trends of Fossil Fuel Reserves and Climate Change in the 21st Century 185

 *Extreme events*: With high confidence, Confalonieri *et al.* (2007b) projected that climate change would increase the number of people suffering from death, disease and injury

 *Floods and weather disasters*: Floods are low-probability, high-impact events that can overwhelm physical infrastructure and human communities (Confalonieri *et al.*, 2007c). Major storm and flood disasters have occurred in the last two decades. The impacts of weather disasters are considerable and unequally distributed. For example, natural disasters have been shown to result in increased domestic violence against - and posttraumatic stress disorders in – women. In terms of deaths and populations affected, floods and tropical cyclones have the greatest impact in South Asia and Latin America. Vulnerability to weather disasters depends on the attributes of the person at risk, including where they live and their age, as well as other social and environmental factors. High-density populations in low-lying coastal regions experience a high health

 *Heatwaves*: Hot days, hot nights and heatwaves have become more frequent (*Confalonieri et al., 2007d*). Heatwaves are associated with marked short-term increases in mortality. For example, in August 2003, a heat wave in Europe resulted in excess mortality in the

Heat-related morbidity and mortality is projected to increase (Confalonieri *et al.*, 2007*e*). The health burden could be relatively small for moderate heatwaves in temperate

 *Drought*: The effects of drought on health include deaths, malnutrition, infectious diseases and respiratory diseases. Countries within the "Meningitis Belt" in semi-arid sub-Saharan Africa experience the highest endemicity and epidemic frequency of meningococcal meningitis in Africa, although other areas in the Rift Valley, the Great Lakes, and southern Africa are also affected (*Confalonieri et al., 2007f*). The spatial distribution, intensity, and seasonality of meningococcal (epidemic) meningitis appear to be strongly linked to climate and environmental factors, particularly drought. The

 *Fires*: In some regions, changes in temperature and precipitation are projected to increase the frequency and severity of fire events (*Confalonieri et al., 2007g*). Forest and

 *Infectious disease vectors*: With high confidence, *Confalonieri et al. (2007h)* projected that climate change would continue to change the range of some infectious disease vectors such as: Dengue, Malaria, Diarrhoeal diseases etc. Vector-borne diseases, (VBD) are infections transmitted by the bite of infected arthropod species, such as mosquitoes, ticks, triatomine bugs, sandflies, and blackflies. There is some evidence of climatechange-related shifts in the distribution of tick vectors of disease, of some (nonmalarial) mosquito vectors in Europe and North America. Climate change has also been implicated in changes in the breeding and migration dates of several bird species. Several species of wild bird can act as carriers of human pathogens as well as of vectors

 *Ground-level ozone*: With high confidence, *Confalonieri et al. (2007i)* projected that climate change would increase cardio-respiratory morbidity and mortality associated with ground-level ozone. Ground-level ozone is both naturally occurring and is the primary constituent of urban smog (*Confalonieri et al., 2007j*). Ozone in smog is formed through

bush fires cause burns, damage from smoke inhalation and other injuries.

regions, because deaths occur primarily in susceptible persons.

from heatwaves, floods, storms, fires and droughts.

burden from weather disasters.

range of 35,000 total deaths.

of infectious agents.

cause of this link is not fully understood.

Fig. 13. Precipitation during the 20th century and up through 2008 during global warming, the NOAA estimating an observed trend over that period of 1.87% global precipitation increase per century.

A study by the World Health Organization (*WHO, 2009*) estimated the effect of climate change on human health. Not all of the effects of climate change were included in their estimates, for example, the effects of more frequent and extreme storms were excluded. Climate change was estimated to have been responsible for 3% of diarrhoea, 3% of malaria, and 3.8% of dengue fever deaths worldwide in 2004. Total attributable mortality was about 0.2% of deaths in 2004; of these, 85% were child deaths.

 *Projections*: With high confidence, IPCC (2007d:48) projected that climate change would bring some benefits in temperate areas, such as fewer deaths from cold exposure, and some mixed effects such as changes in range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa. Benefits were projected to be outweighed by negative health effects of rising temperatures, especially in developing countries.

Fig. 13. Precipitation during the 20th century and up through 2008 during global warming, the NOAA estimating an observed trend over that period of 1.87% global precipitation

mortality was about 0.2% of deaths in 2004; of these, 85% were child deaths.

temperatures, especially in developing countries.

 *Projections*: With high confidence, IPCC (2007d:48) projected that climate change would bring some benefits in temperate areas, such as fewer deaths from cold exposure, and some mixed effects such as changes in range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa. Benefits were projected to be outweighed by negative health effects of rising

A study by the World Health Organization (*WHO, 2009*) estimated the effect of climate change on human health. Not all of the effects of climate change were included in their estimates, for example, the effects of more frequent and extreme storms were excluded. Climate change was estimated to have been responsible for 3% of diarrhoea, 3% of malaria, and 3.8% of dengue fever deaths worldwide in 2004. Total attributable

increase per century.


Heat-related morbidity and mortality is projected to increase (Confalonieri *et al.*, 2007*e*). The health burden could be relatively small for moderate heatwaves in temperate regions, because deaths occur primarily in susceptible persons.


Global Trends of Fossil Fuel Reserves and Climate Change in the 21st Century 187

important in affecting conflict. For example, Wilbanks *et al.* (2007) suggested that major environmentally influenced conflicts in Africa were more to do with the relative abundance of resources, e.g., oil and diamonds, than with resource scarcity. Scott *et al.* (2001) placed only low

Aggregating impacts adds up the total impact of climate change across sectors and/or regions. Examples of aggregate measures include economic cost (e.g., changes in gross domestic product (GDP) and the social cost of carbon), changes in ecosystems (e.g., changes over land area from one type of vegetation to another), human health impacts, and the

Economic impacts are expected to vary regionally. For a medium increase in global mean temperature (2-3 °C of warming, relative to the average temperature between 1990-2000), market sectors in low-latitude and less-developed areas might experience net costs due to climate change. On the other hand, market sectors in high-latitude and developed regions might experience net benefits for this level of warming. A global mean temperature increase above about 2-3 °C (relative to 1990-2000) would very likely result in market sectors across

Aggregate impacts have also been quantified in non-economic terms. For example, climate change over the 21st century is likely to adversely affect hundreds of millions of people through increased coastal flooding, reductions in water supplies, increased malnutrition and

Beyond the year 2050, climate change may be the major driver for biodiversity loss globally. It was projected by Fischlin *et al.* (2007a) that approximately 20 to 30% of plant and animal species assessed so far would likely be at increasingly high risk of extinction should global mean temperatures exceed a warming of 2 to 3 °C above pre-industrial temperature levels (Fischlin *et al.,* 2007b). The uncertainties in this estimate, however, are large: for a rise of about 2 °C the percentage may be as low as 10%, or for about 3 °C, as high as 40%, and depending on biota(Parry 2007a) (all living organisms of an area, the flora and fauna considered as a unit) the range is between 1% and 80%. As global average temperature exceeds 4 °C above pre-industrial levels, model projections suggested that there could be

Climate change may have an effect on the carbon cycle in an interactive "feedback" process. Using the A2 SRES emissions scenario, Schneider *et al.* (2007:789) found that this effect led to additional warming by 2100, relative to the 1990–2000 period, of 0.1–1.5 °C. This estimate was made with high confidence. The climate projections made in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report of 1.1–6.4 °C account for this feedback effect. On the other hand, with medium confidence, Schneider *et al.* (2007) commented that additional releases of GHGs were possible from permafrost, peat lands, wetlands, and large stores of marine hydrates at

significant extinctions (40-70% of species that were assessed) around the globe.

confidence in predictions of increased conflict due to climate change.

number of people affected by climate change (*Smith, J.B., et al., 2001*).

all regions experiencing either declines in net benefits or rises in net costs.

**3.2.9 Aggregate economic impacts of climate change** 

increased health impacts.

**3.2.11 Biogeochemical cycles** 

high latitudes.

**3.2.10 Climate change and ecosystems** 

chemical reactions involving nitrogen oxides and other compounds. The reaction is a photochemical reaction, meaning that it involves electromagnetic radiation, and occurs in the presence of bright sunshine and high temperatures. Exposure to elevated concentrations of ozone is associated with increased hospital admissions for pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, allergic rhinitis and other respiratory diseases, and with premature mortality.

Background levels of ground-level ozone have risen since pre-industrial times because of increasing emissions of methane, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides (*Confalonieri et al., 2007k*). This trend is expected to continue into the mid-21st century.

 *Cold-waves*: Cold-waves continue to be a problem in northern latitudes, where very low temperatures can be reached in a few hours and extend over long periods (*Confalonieri et al., 2007l*). Reductions in cold-deaths due to climate change are projected to be greater than increases in heat-related deaths in the UK.
