**3.2.7 Water resources crisis**

A number of climate-related trends have been observed that affect water resources. These include changes in precipitation, the crysosphere and surface waters (e.g., changes in river flows). Observed and projected impacts of climate change on freshwater systems and their management are mainly due to changes in temperature, sea level and precipitation variability. Sea level rise will extend areas of salinization of groundwater and estuaries, resulting in a decrease in freshwater availability for humans and ecosystems in coastal areas. In an assessment of the scientific literature, *Kundzewicz et al. (2007)* concluded, with high confidence, that:


#### **3.2.8 Environmental migration and conflict**

General circulation models project that the future climate change will bring wetter coasts, drier mid-continent areas, and further sea level rise (*Scott, MJ, et.al., 1996*). Such changes could result in the gravest effects of climate change through sudden human migration. Millions might be displaced by shoreline erosions, river and coastal flooding, or severe drought.

Migration related to climate change is likely to be predominantly from rural areas in developing countries to towns and cities. In the short term climate stress is likely to add incrementally to existing migration patterns rather than generating entirely new flows of people. It is quite likely that environmental degradation, loss of access to resources (e.g., water resources) (*Desanker, P., et al., 2001*) and resulting human migration could become a source of political and even military conflict. Factors other than climate change may, however, be more important in affecting conflict. For example, Wilbanks *et al.* (2007) suggested that major environmentally influenced conflicts in Africa were more to do with the relative abundance of resources, e.g., oil and diamonds, than with resource scarcity. Scott *et al.* (2001) placed only low confidence in predictions of increased conflict due to climate change.
