**7.2 Developing countries**

Figure 5 also displays the distribution of farm energy inputs in developing countries, showing that fertilizer embodies the largest energy cost. Rising prices will make this input increasingly expensive, and probably unreachable for most small farmers, unless subsidized by government policy. The cost of fertilizer will exert pressure to accelerate agroecological innovations, although soil fertility already compromised by reduction in animal nutrients and rotation cyles (Bunch, 2011) may warrant targeted use of synthetic fertilzer as part of a long range plan for land restoration. Scarcity of other fossil fuel inputs will confirm existing patterns of labor-intensive farming. Success in global efforts to raise crop yields on small farms in the developing world will require sustained policy commitments from national and international agencies.

Little information is available about post-farm energy inputs in developing country agricultural systems (Ziesemer, 2007). Organic systems in developed countries may provide a partial model, although these data also are few. Transportation costs will largely confine distribution to local and regional markets, although success in intensifying production may increasingly satisfy local needs and require expansion of regional marketing opportunities. Urban farming should have a role to play (Karanja & Njenga, 2011), as should innovative approaches that simultaneously minimize waste, generate income, and provide food, e.g., cultivating mushrooms on invasive water hyacinths in Africa (Pauli, 1998, Chapter 11). Because the largest population growth rates also occur in countries where agricultural

Fossil Fuel and Food Security 299

will fail to forestall collapse. Moreover, even with courageous leadership focused on long-

Thus, leaders at every level of government and society face a critical challenge to identify and implement wise policies to build long-term sustainability into the interlinked food, resource, environment, and economic systems. *Limits to Growth* (pp. 259-260) offers a list of guidelines

Food security requires sustainable agriculture, which in turn requires farsighted leadership to guide evolution away from heavy dependence on fossil fuel inputs and toward the alternatives discussed in Section 6. Failure to achieve food security will take a tragic toll of

The author thanks original authors or publishers for permission to reproduce their figures or data, particularly Dr. Josep Canadell for Figure 7. He thanks Dr. James Boyce and especially Dr. Tina Evans for comments on drafts of the manuscript; to Dr. Wes Jackson for a copy of his manuscript in advance of publication; to Dr. Richard Grossman for prompting his initial foray into this subject (White & Grossman 2010); and to Smith College for funds toward the cost of publication. He particularly thanks Dr. Angeline

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Brown, L. R. (2011). *World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and Economic Collapse,* 

Bunch, R.(2011). Africa's Fertility Crisis and the Coming Famine, In *State of the World, 2011:* 

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*of the World, 2011: Innovations that Nourish the Planet,* pp. 169-172, W. W. Norton,

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*Innovations that Nourish the Planet*, pp. 59-70, W. W. Norton, ISBN 978-0-393-33880-5,

Transformation Centre, Future Analysis Branch; Armed Forces, Capabilities and

Schrater for astute editorial comments, careful proofreading, and patient support.

term outcomes, slow responses in political systems will delay decisive policy action.

for this effort. Other sources, such as Brown (2011), provide book-length treatments.

human suffering through famine and social chaos. The need to act is urgent.

**9. Acknowledgements** 

**10. References** 

0301-4215

beyond.pdf

New York

ISBN 978-0-393-33880-5, New York

W. W. Norton, ISBN 978-0-393-33949-9, New York

productivity is low, systemically addressing the role of women in agriculture, along with provision of women's health services and educational opportunities, could advance food security both by improving productivity and by reducing human fertility, in addition to providing broader societal benefits.
