**8. Conclusion**

Creating food security for the projected mid-century global population of 9 billion is an enormous challenge. Meeting the challenge will require efficient use of arable land without continued deforestation, efficient use of water, mindful choices between use of agriculture for food and for energy, altering diets for optimum balance of animal and plant protein, supplementing diets with unconventional foods such as mushrooms and algae, attention to global nutrient cycles, restoration of soils, protection of biodiversity, improved crop varieties, and adaptation to climate change.

The goal of this chapter is to demonstrate that over the coming decades this multi-faceted challenge must be met in an economy with increasingly limited supplies of oil and coal, and probably natural gas, with correspondingly rising energy prices. In particular, continuation and expansion of conventional energy- and chemical-intensive agriculture will become uneconomic, even apart from its contribution to climate change and other negative ecological impacts. In the arena of food security, "business as ususal" is unsustainable. Even if conventional agriculture can meet short-term productivity demands, it already fails to provide food access to a billion people, and it simply cannot provide a stable long-term solution to the food security challenge.

The challenge of food security represents just one dimension of the growing conflict between the dominant economic paradigm of unending growth and the finite capacity of planet Earth to supply resources and absorb wastes. Crucial elements of this conflict have been identified in *Limits to Growth* (Meadows, Meadows, & Randers, 2004, p. 178): (1) the cultural acceptance of growth as desirable, (2) the existence of physical limits, such as the land area available for agriculture, which may be erodable by overexploitation, and (3) the existence of delays in the system between signals, such as declining crop yields, and responses, such as altered land management.

To project possible trajectories of human welfare, *Limits to Growth* broadly represents key components of the economy: population, food production, industrial output, pollution, and resource depletion. It further identifies interactions that provide positive or negative feedbacks among them. For example, increasing food production positively impacts population, wheres pollution has a negative impact. Conceptual scenarios explore the possible evolution of the coupled systems. Most of the scenarios exhibit peaks in population and industrial output by mid-century, followed by collapse; only a few scenarios that embody conscious choices acknowledging ecological limits show a relatively smooth transition to sustainability.

Many of global challenges of recent years, such as increases in oil prices, the growing climate crisis, and the continuing economic crisis, can be interpreted as signals of a global economy that has overshot the carrying capacity of the planet. Unfortunately, owing to slow responses in natural systems, if policy makers wait for an unequivocal signal, such as prolonged economic depression caused by declining oil supplies, their belated responses

productivity is low, systemically addressing the role of women in agriculture, along with provision of women's health services and educational opportunities, could advance food security both by improving productivity and by reducing human fertility, in addition to

Creating food security for the projected mid-century global population of 9 billion is an enormous challenge. Meeting the challenge will require efficient use of arable land without continued deforestation, efficient use of water, mindful choices between use of agriculture for food and for energy, altering diets for optimum balance of animal and plant protein, supplementing diets with unconventional foods such as mushrooms and algae, attention to global nutrient cycles, restoration of soils, protection of biodiversity, improved crop

The goal of this chapter is to demonstrate that over the coming decades this multi-faceted challenge must be met in an economy with increasingly limited supplies of oil and coal, and probably natural gas, with correspondingly rising energy prices. In particular, continuation and expansion of conventional energy- and chemical-intensive agriculture will become uneconomic, even apart from its contribution to climate change and other negative ecological impacts. In the arena of food security, "business as ususal" is unsustainable. Even if conventional agriculture can meet short-term productivity demands, it already fails to provide food access to a billion people, and it simply cannot provide a stable long-term

The challenge of food security represents just one dimension of the growing conflict between the dominant economic paradigm of unending growth and the finite capacity of planet Earth to supply resources and absorb wastes. Crucial elements of this conflict have been identified in *Limits to Growth* (Meadows, Meadows, & Randers, 2004, p. 178): (1) the cultural acceptance of growth as desirable, (2) the existence of physical limits, such as the land area available for agriculture, which may be erodable by overexploitation, and (3) the existence of delays in the system between signals, such as declining crop yields, and

To project possible trajectories of human welfare, *Limits to Growth* broadly represents key components of the economy: population, food production, industrial output, pollution, and resource depletion. It further identifies interactions that provide positive or negative feedbacks among them. For example, increasing food production positively impacts population, wheres pollution has a negative impact. Conceptual scenarios explore the possible evolution of the coupled systems. Most of the scenarios exhibit peaks in population and industrial output by mid-century, followed by collapse; only a few scenarios that embody conscious choices acknowledging ecological limits show a relatively smooth

Many of global challenges of recent years, such as increases in oil prices, the growing climate crisis, and the continuing economic crisis, can be interpreted as signals of a global economy that has overshot the carrying capacity of the planet. Unfortunately, owing to slow responses in natural systems, if policy makers wait for an unequivocal signal, such as prolonged economic depression caused by declining oil supplies, their belated responses

providing broader societal benefits.

varieties, and adaptation to climate change.

solution to the food security challenge.

responses, such as altered land management.

transition to sustainability.

**8. Conclusion** 

will fail to forestall collapse. Moreover, even with courageous leadership focused on longterm outcomes, slow responses in political systems will delay decisive policy action.

Thus, leaders at every level of government and society face a critical challenge to identify and implement wise policies to build long-term sustainability into the interlinked food, resource, environment, and economic systems. *Limits to Growth* (pp. 259-260) offers a list of guidelines for this effort. Other sources, such as Brown (2011), provide book-length treatments.

Food security requires sustainable agriculture, which in turn requires farsighted leadership to guide evolution away from heavy dependence on fossil fuel inputs and toward the alternatives discussed in Section 6. Failure to achieve food security will take a tragic toll of human suffering through famine and social chaos. The need to act is urgent.
