**7.1 Developed countries**

Figures 5 and 6 show the heavy fossil fuel dependence of the agricultural system in the U.S., which should be broadly typical of other developed countries. Increasing energy costs will prompt evolution toward the more sustainable cultivation systems described in

Bottom-up analyses such as Smil's, typically take little account of institutional inertia that creates significant obstacles to widespread achievement of possible system efficiencies. One such potential obstacle is the disparate influence on agricultural systems and food trade between rich nations and transnational corporations on the one hand, and poor nations and small farmers on the other (FAO, 2003). The new movement for food sovereignty (Wikipedia, 2011) is a grass roots attempt to redress this imbalance, asserting as a human

Pimentel and Pimentel (2008, Chapter 23) are less sanguine than Smil about the energy future. They review future food needs, energy requirements for producing the food, constraints on land and water, climate change, and environmental pollution. They stress, as do none of the other sources discussed here, that lowering birthrates is an additional food security and sustainability strategy. They acknowledge the social challenge involved in conveying to parents that having smaller families would serve their interests and those of their children, but do not mention evidence that improving the status and education of women yields multiple societal benefits, including voluntary fertility reduction. The gender

Smedshaug (2010) provides a long view of the history of agriculture and the role of national and international policy in regulating food production. He takes as given the constriction of energy resources in this century, but provides no detailed projections of its impact. He does, however, stress the critical role of policy in moderating the fluctuating effects of markets on production and on farm incomes. The history of intermittent overproduction that he documents suggests that providing adequate food supplies will be possible—even as it is today. The question is whether policy makers can achieve a state that meets the broad definition of food security, particularly including not just food availability, but universal

Section 6 focused primarily on the farm and the interaction of the farm system with the environment. This section seeks to articulate likely impacts of rising fossil fuel costs and conceivable adaptions in developed and developing countries, both on the farm and in post-

Because of its annual cycle of production, the food system adapts relatively quickly to altered prices of inputs, leading to optimism that the system will evolve relatively smoothly in a changing cost environment. Price spikes, however, can be more disruptive then gradual increases, although they may also induce long-term adjustment. An example is the radical improvement in energy efficiency of American refrigerators since the oil price shocks of the 1970s. Since then, energy efficiency has improved by a factor of about 3.5, while average sizes have grown about 10%, and real prices have decreased by 2/3 (Appliance Standards

Figures 5 and 6 show the heavy fossil fuel dependence of the agricultural system in the U.S., which should be broadly typical of other developed countries. Increasing energy costs will prompt evolution toward the more sustainable cultivation systems described in

right access to healthy, culturally appropriate, sustainably produced food.

gap in world agriculture is highlighted by the FAO (2011b).

access to food on a stable basis.

**7. Fossil fuels in the food system** 

farm segments of the food system.

Awareness Project, 2011).

**7.1 Developed countries** 

Section 6, in particular, the reduced material and energy inputs and greater labor intensity illustrated by Rodale (2011). Technological inputs from improved crop strains, precision application of water and nutrients, and other innovations will also contribute. Higher energy prices will accelerate the longstanding evolution of agriculture and the larger economy toward higher energy efficiency; they may also reverse the corresponding trend toward greater overall energy use. Because of the significant food system costs to individual households, food and energy price increases will directly impact household budgets, leading to choices of more efficient appliances and possibly dietary changes. Owing to the long life of home appliances, however, evolution will be slow. Fuel costs will directly impact the transport sector, while electricity costs will impact food processing. Possible responses are greater reliance on biofuels, which exacerbate food price increases, reliance on renewable energy resources, and localization of processing and distribution facilities. The evolution probably will include all three, in a variable mix depending on national and regional market forces.

Smil's (2000, 2003) optimism about the adaptability of both the food and energy systems is likely well-placed, unless severe economic shocks of the more pessimistic Peak Oil forecasts disrupt the economy on a large scale and undermine capital investment. Then, the more drastic localization scenario represented by the Cuban experience (Wright, 2009) may be relevant.

Agricultural and energy policy initiatives could either accelerate or inhibit adaptation to an environment of gradually increasing energy prices; they also could reduce or increase vulnerability to price shocks. Unfortunately, politically powerful vested interests in conventional agriculture and fossil fuel production are likely to oppose policy innovations to promote more sustainable systems.
