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**8** 

*India* 

**Global Trends of Fossil Fuel Reserves** 

Bharat Raj Singh1 and Onkar Singh2 *1SMS Institute of Technology, Lucknow* 

*2Harcourt Butler Technological Institute, Kanpur* 

**and Climate Change in the 21st Century** 

Today's energy markets are dominated by a substantial increase in energy demand due to the strong economic growth in the developing countries especially in China and India. At the same time it is also observed that the capacity to deliver fossil energy may be limited due to limited production capacity and lack of infrastructure such as pipeline, refining and terminal capacities (CERA, A global sense of energy insecurity). A number of nations are concerned with their security of supply with respect to delivery of power, oil and gas, and we see a development toward more nationalization of energy production and distribution in several nations. Huge investments in production capacity and infrastructure are needed in many countries to secure necessary access to energy (*IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2004, p 32*). Emissions of carbon dioxide due to our use of fossil energy will change the climate and the temperature is estimated to increase by 2 to 6o Celsius within year 2100, which is a tremendous increase from our current average temperature of 1.7o Celsius (IPCC). This will probably cause huge changes to our society, both positive and negative, but the total impact

The global population is expected to increase by 30% the next 25 years, where 80-90% of the increase is expected to be in developing countries (*IEA, World Energy Outlook 2004, p 43-46*). To be able to establish a sustainable global development, with growth in population and living standard, it will probably be necessary to develop renewable and cleaner energy sources, improved energy efficiency and mechanisms that make it attractive to utilize new technology. The 30 year update claims that the global system is currently in an un-sustainable situation, and that there are limits to growth on our planet – on resources, food, environment, and also in the population the earth can supply over time. If we do not act soon to establish a sustainable world, we will probably face enormous challenges in providing goods, energy and food to the population and we will probably experience recession, hunger, conflicts,

This study describes some of the background for the scenario analysis such as: potential impacts of changes in the energy resource situation, both fossil and renewable, impact on global climate, important geo-political issues and major global trends which can have an

reduced living conditions and maybe a significant reduction in population.

**1. Introduction** 

on our society is currently very uncertain.

impact on the energy as well as climate.

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http://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/online/articles/doo15.

