**2.2 Coal**

The issue of coal is somewhat different from oil and gas, because it is expected that coal will last for perhaps another 100 years, well beyond the expected life of oil and gas. The huge reserves of coal make coal the likely major replacement of oil and gas. As coal is particularly well adapted to electricity production at power stations, it is expected that coal-powered plants will be available well after oil and gas have gone into sharp decline. On the other hand, coal cannot be used for most of the transportation industry, such as for powering automobiles and airplanes (Table 1).



depletion times for oil, coal and gas are approximately 35, 107 and 37 years, respectively (Shafiee, 2009). Accordingly, coal is expected to be available up to 2112, and will be the only

The consumption of fossil fuel in the next few decades is complicated by uncertainties about known and future reserves, and our consumption rates. Speculation over the next few decades is further complicated by the large numbers of variables and unknowns, some of

b. uncertainty about the rise of fuel prices, over the next few decades, in the face of

c. uncertainty as to the trends of the diminishing consumption of oil and gas, after it has

d. uncertainty as to how renewable energy such as solar and bio-fuels would replace fossil

In spite of these uncertainties and unknowns about the future of fossil fuel, there is

The issue of coal is somewhat different from oil and gas, because it is expected that coal will last for perhaps another 100 years, well beyond the expected life of oil and gas. The huge reserves of coal make coal the likely major replacement of oil and gas. As coal is particularly well adapted to electricity production at power stations, it is expected that coal-powered plants will be available well after oil and gas have gone into sharp decline. On the other hand, coal cannot be used for most of the transportation industry, such as for powering

Oil Gas Coal Hydroelectric Nuclear

suited Unsuitable Almost

suitable

Barely suitable

suitable

Almost impossible

suited Well suited Well suited Well suited

impossible

Almost impossible

Almost impossible

Almost impossible

Almost impossible Almost impossible

Almost impossible

Almost impossible

Suitable only for large ships

Almost impossible

fossil fuel remaining after 2042.

which are identified below:

diminishing reserves

**2.2 Coal** 

Electricity Generation

Trucks and

Trains and Locomotives

reached well into its decline.

fuel in the next few decades.

automobiles and airplanes (Table 1).

Automobiles Well suited well

e. importance of oil to the chemical industry

a. uncertainty about known and yet-unknown reserves

consensus as to the importance of conserving fuel today.

Well suited Well

Lorries Well suited Suitable Barely

Ships Well suited Suitable Barely

Table 1. Conventional Power Sources and their Applicability

Barely suitable

suitable

Suitable but not for underground

Aeroplanes Well suited Barely

### **2.3 Continuous decline, rather than total depletion**

One popular perception about oil and gas (and coal) is that they will be suddenly depleted (Figure 1).

Fig. 1. Popular perception about Oil and Gas, and Alternative Energy. Fallacies are that there will be (a) a mostly complete depletion of oil and gas (b) Alternative energy production will be comparable to former levels of oil and gas.

In reality, the effect of diminishing supply and rising prices will soon cause consumption to decrease. Contrary to most existing speculations, the issue of depletion is complicated by the fact that, today it is commercially viable to extract at best about two-thirds of fuel in a reserve. There are large residual reserves of oil under the ground, which are not commercially feasible to extract today, but will become very attractive several decades later.

The reality is that rather than being completely depleted, fossil fuel will go into a long decline for many decades, during which prices will continue to rise. During this time, both fossil fuel and renewable energy will exist side by side (Figure 2). However, renewable energy will never come close to the energy production formerly by fossil fuel.

Fig. 2. A more realistic expectation of the decline where Oil and gas, rather than being completely depleted, will continue to decline, with rising prices, for a long time. Alternative energy will rise to levels much lower than former levels of oil and gas.

Modern Transitions in Saving Energy and the Environment 197

In areas of North America, biofuels account for up to 10% of automobile fuel, for the purpose of cleaner emissions. Compared to fossil fuel oil, production rates for biofuels are low and costs are high. Large areas of ancient rainforests have been cleared in Brazil for biofuels. Also, biofuels divert land which could otherwise have been used for food crop production. Globally biofuel production grew at 13.8 %, driven mostly by the US and Brazil. Biofuel may be the only substitute for oil and gas for transportation applications such as

Almost

Almost

Almost

Almost

The present prosperity of the world is much dependent on the rapid transportation of people across large distances. The transportation sector involves the automobile, trucking, locomotive (train), shipping and aviation industries. The vast majority of this transportation industry runs on oil. The exceptions are mass transit, such as city trains running on electricity, and large defense ships running on nuclear power. There is an ongoing transition

As oil becomes more scarce, gas powered, hybrid, and fully electric vehicles are expected to gain popularity. Fully electric vehicles, which have been confined to special applications, are now moving on to everyday use. It is expected that conventional automobiles will be largely replaced by hybrid and fully electric vehicles. These may be rechargeable from distant power stations (figure 3). Owing to the inherent difficulties with electric vehicles, compared to oilpowered vehicles, the number of automobiles is expected to decline over future decades.

Trains mostly run on diesel, with the exception of electric trains in city areas for mass transit. As oil and gas continue to be depleted, electric trains will become better options. However, the capital investment is prohibitive for copper and aluminum conductors over long distances, or cross country. Under these circumstances, the economical option may be a

return to coal-powered trains, built much like coal-powered power stations.

**Solar panels Wind energy Biodiesel. Battery power** 

impossible Suitable Barely suitable

impossible Suitable Highly suitable

unsuitable

impossible

impossible Suitable Highly

impossible Suitable Almost

with batteries Unsuitable Suitable Suitable

**3.3 Biofuels** 

**Trucks and lorries** 

**4.1 Automobiles** 

**4.2 Locomotives and trains** 

automobiles, airplanes, and shipping (Table 2).

Almost impossible

impossible

impossible

impossible

Table 2. Renewable sources and their applicability for transportation

from oil to natural gas power and electric power for automobiles.

**Automobile** Barely suited,

**Locomotives** Almost

**Ships** Almost

**Airplanes** Almost

**4. The transportation sector** 

Petroleum is also one of the main sources of raw materials for the chemical industry today. An example is the bitumen used in paving roads, which is produced from petroleum. There are very few substitutes for petroleum-based bitumen, comparable to it in price and availability. In future, with the shortage and depletion of oil, there will also be a great shortage of other petroleum-based raw materials. The abandoned reservoirs of today will look very promising when there are real shortages of oil in future.
