**6. References**

188 Fossil Fuel and the Environment

With medium confidence, the IPCC (2007b) concluded that with a global average temperature increase of 1–4 °C (relative to temperatures over the years 1990–2000), at least a partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet, and possibly the West Antarctic ice sheets would occur *(Parry 2007b).* The estimated timescale for partial deglaciation was centuries to millennia, and

From the present study it is observed that substantial increase in energy demand in the developing countries, due to the strong economic growth is dominating energy markets today and subsequently increasing global population deplete fossil fuel reserves is making

The global population is expected to increase by 30% the next 25 years, where 80-90% of

 Limits to Growth – the 30 year update claims that the global system is currently in an un-sustainable situation, and that there are limits to growth on our planet – on resources, food, environment, and also in the population the earth can supply over

 Fossil fuel reserve depletion times for oil, coal and gas of approximately would be 35, 107 and 37 years, respectively. This means that coal reserves are available up to 2112,

 The oil price is currently very high at around \$140 per barrel in nominal terms. This is much higher than after several other oil price crises, such as the Iran/Iraq war, Gulf war and 9/11 as per WTRG, 2008. According to OPEC (2007), OPEC benchmark crude price is assumed to remain in the \$50 to \$60 per barrel range in nominal terms for much of the projected period and rising further in the longer

 Coal prices have had less fluctuation in comparison to oil in the last 50 years. The coal market depicts relatively constant coal prices in historical data. This trend will remain flat until the middle of the next decade, and then increase very slowly,

 Gas prices have generally followed the increase in oil prices since 2003, typically with a 1 year lag. The average transmission and distribution margin for delivered gas is projected to change from \$2.38 per thousand cubic feet in 2006 to between

 Due to fast energy requirement and subsequent high consumption of fossil fuel, greenhouse" gases such as Carbon Dioxide (CO2) are tremendously increasing and

causing Global warming is threat to the survival of mankind in today's scenario. The effects, or impacts, of climate change may be physical, ecological, social or economic and closely associated with Global warming. Climate change includes the instrumental temperature record, rising sea levels, and decreased snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and sea ice, more frequent and intense heat waves, rising sea levels, and widespread ocean acidification, frequency of intense rainfall, and

would contribute 4 to 6 metres (13 to 20 ft) or more to sea level rise over this period.

the sustainability vulnerable. Other major findings of the study are as under:

the increase is expected to be in developing countries.

and will be the only fossil fuel remaining after 2042.

reaching just over \$60 per tonne by 2030.

\$2.07 and \$2.44 per thousand cubic feet in 2030.

term with inflation.

widespread ocean acidification.

**3.2.12 Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets** 

**4. Conclusion** 

time.


Global Trends of Fossil Fuel Reserves and Climate Change in the 21st Century 191

IEA, 2007b, IEA, World Energy Outlook 2007, China and India, Organisation for Economic

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007d), "Climate Change 2007: Synthesis

IPCC (2001b), "Figure SPM-2", In McCarthy 2001, Summary for Policymakers, Retrieved:

IPCC 2007d, "1. Observed changes in climate and their effects", Summary for Policymakers,

IPCC 2007d, "3. Projected climate change and its impacts", Summary for Policymakers. CH:

IPCC 2007d, "5.2 Key vulnerabilities, impacts and risks-long-term perspectives", Synthesis

Jansen, E, *et al*., "6.3.2 What Does the Record of the Mid-Pliocene Show?", In Solomon 2007,

Klass, 1998 D.L. Klass, Biomass for Renewable Energy, Fuels, and Chemicals, Academic

Klass, 2003 D.L. Klass, A critical assessment of renewable energy usage in the USA. *Energy* 

Kundzewicz, Z.W., *et al.*, "Executive Summary", In Parry 2007, Chapter 3: Fresh Water

Le Treut, H, *et al*. "FAQ 1.2 What is the Relationship between Climate Change and Weather?", In Solomon 2007, Historical Overview of Climate Change. CH: IPCC. Lior, 2008, N. Lior, Energy resources and use the present situation and possible paths to the

Parry 2007b, ed., "Magnitudes of impact", Summary for Policymakers, CH: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 17, Retrieved: 2011-05-08. Schneider, SH, *et al*., "19.3.1 Introduction to Table 19.1", In Parry 2007, Chapter 19: Assessing

Schneider, SH, *et al*., "19.3.2.1 Agriculture", In Parry 2007, Chapter 19: Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and the Risk from Climate Change, pp. 790, Retrieved: 2011-06-25. Scott, M., *et al.*, "7.2.2.3.1 Migration", In McCarthy 2001, Chapter 7: Human Settlements,

Scott, M.J., *et al.*, "12.3.1 Population Migration", In Watson 1996, Chapter 12: Human

Shaffer, G.; Olsen, S. M.; Pedersen, J. O. P. (2009), "Long-term ocean oxygen depletion in

response to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels", *Nature Geoscience* 2 (2): 105–

Settlements in a Changing Climate: Impacts and Adaptation.

109, Bibcode 2009NatGe...2..105S, doi:10.1038/ngeo420.

Key Vulnerabilities and the Risk from Climate Change. CH: IPCC, Retrieved: 2011-

Resources and their Management, pp. 175, Retrieved: 2011-08-14.

Parry 2007a, ed. "Definition of "biota"". Appendix I: Glossary Retrieved: 2011-10-01.

*al.* (eds.))". IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, Retrieved: 2009-05-20.

IPCC 2007d, "3.3.4 Ocean acidification", Synthesis Report, Retrieved: 2011-06-11.

Chapter 6: Palaeoclimate. CH: IPCC Retrieved: 2011-05-04.

Washington, DC (2007).

IPCC 2001d, "3.16", Question 3, Retrieved: 2011-08-05.

CH: IPCC, Retrieved: 2011-06-17.

report, Retrieved: 2011-08-05.

Karl 2009, ed., "Global Climate Change".

Press, San Diego (1998).

*Policy*, 31 (2003), pp. 353–367.

future, *Energy*, 33 (2008), pp. 842–857.

Energy, and Industry, Retrieved: 2011-08-29.

2011-05-18.

IPCC.

IPCC, 2001, SPM Question 3

05-04.

Co-operation and Development, International Energy Agency, Paris and

Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team *et* 


Confalonieri *et al.*, *2007f,* "8.2.3.1 Drought and infectious disease", In Parry 2007, Chapter 8:

Confalonieri *et al.*, *2007g,* "8.2.6.3 Air pollutants from forest fires", In Parry 2007, Chapter 8:

Confalonieri *et al.*, *2007h,* "8.2.8 Vector-borne, rodent-borne and other infectious diseases", In

Confalonieri *et al.*, *2007i,* "8.2.5 Water and disease", In Parry 2007, Chapter 8: Human health,

Confalonieri *et al.*, *2007j,* "8.2.6 Air quality and disease", In Parry 2007, Chapter 8: Human

Confalonieri *et al.*, *2007k,* "8.4.1.4 Urban air quality", In Parry 2007, Chapter 8: Human health,

Confalonieri *et al.*, *2007l,* "8.2.1.2 Cold-waves", In Parry 2007, Chapter 8: Human health,

Crowley, T. J.; North, G. R. (May 1988), "Abrupt Climate Change and Extinction Events in

Desanker, P., *et al.*, "Executive summary", In McCarthy 2001, Chapter 10: Africa, Retrieved

Easterling, WE, *et al*., "5.4.1 Primary effects and interactions", In Parry 2007, Chapter 5: Food,

Fischlin, A, *et al*., "Executive summary", In Parry 2007 (PDF), Chapter 4: Ecosystems, their

Fischlin, A., *et al.*, 2007a, "Executive summary", In Parry 2007 (PDF), Chapter 4: Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services. pp. 213–214, Retrieved: 2011-09-07. Fischlin, A., *et al.*, 2007b, "4.4.11 Global synthesis including impacts on biodiversity", In

Fisher, BS, *et al* (2007). "3.1 Emissions scenarios", In B Metz, *et al*. *Issues related to mitigation in* 

Gille, Sarah T (February 15, 2002). "Warming of the Southern Ocean Since the 1950s", *Science*

Goldemberg, 2006 J. Goldemberg, The promise of clean energy. *Energy Policy*, 34 (2006), pp.

Hegerl, GC, *et al*. "Executive Summary", In Solomon 2007, Chapter 9: Understanding and

Hubbert M.K., 1956, Nuclear energy and the fossil fuels; American Petroleum Institute, Drilling and Production Practice, Proc. Spring Meeting, San Antonio, Texas. 7-25 IEA, 2006 IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, International Energy Agency, Paris and Washington, DC (2006). IEA, 2007a, IEA, Coal Information 2007, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, International Energy Agency, Paris and Washington, DC (2007).

Parry 2007, Chapter 4: Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services, Retrieved:

*the long term context*. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambrige, UK & New York, NY, USA; CH: Cambridge University

295 (5558): 1275–7, Bibcode 2002Sci...295.1275G, doi:10.1126/science.1065863,

Earth History", *Science* 240 (4855): 996–1002, Bib code: 1988Sci...240...996C,

Parry 2007, Chapter 8: Human health, Retrieved 2011-07-13.

doi:10.1126/science.240.4855.996, PMID 17731712.

Fibre, and Forest Products, pp. 282, Retrieved 2011-06-25.

properties, goods, and services, pp. 213, Retrieved 2011-06-11.

Human health, Retrieved: 2011-07-13.

Human health, Retrieved 2011-07-13.

Retrieved 2011-07-13.

Retrieved 2011-07-13.

Retrieved 2011-07-13.

2011-06-20.

2011-10-01.

PMID 11847337.

2185–2190.

Press; IPCC, Retrieved: 2011-05-04.

Attributing Climate Change. CH: IPCC.

health, Retrieved 2011-07-13.


**9** 

Shahriar Khan

*Bangladesh* 

**Modern Transitions in Saving Energy** 

Although there have been numerous programs to reduce fossil fuel consumption, there is still tremendous potential for further reduction of energy consumption. Reduced consumption today will both lower prices in future, and increase availability for future generations. Renewable energies can hardly compare to fossil fuel in convenience and energy intensity. The developed world has moved only slightly from incandescent to fluorescent and LED lamps. Larger automobiles, owing to their greater safety in collisions, and the status they convey, have contributed to a "size race" among consumers for larger automobiles. Urban sprawl, as practiced in much of the world, has contributed to spreadout cities, and a car-dependent culture. Owing to rising fuel prices, urban sprawl is largely unsustainable, as could be evidenced by the recent crash in the suburban housing market in the developed world. Back-up generators and UPS by individual households and consumers may worsen problems, and even cause a vicious cycle of power shortages. Over the last few decades, forest and vegetation densities have increased, but marine life has

While fossil fuel is known to be in decline, the nature of the decline and future trends in prices is unclear. Since 1900, the world population has more than quadrupled, and primary energy consumption has increased by a factor of 22.5 (BP Statistical Review 2011). The consumption of fossil fuel has been increasing at the rate of about 1.6 % annually for many years, and oil companies expect consumption at this rate for another two decades (BP

From these estimates of known and future reserves, it is only a question of time, before oil and gas reserves become largely depleted. At the present rates of consumption, it is generally acknowledged that fossil fuel, especially oil and gas, will decline greatly in a few decades. Oil and gas are being produced from increasingly deep reserves, leading to higher production costs. These greater expenses have been at the cost of disposable incomes, and quality of life.

The size of fossil fuel reserves and their times to depletion are fundamental issues with conflicting answers given by experts. According to one estimate, the fossil fuel reserve

**1. Introduction** 

decreased, for reasons which are unclear at this time.

**2. Nature of the decline of fossil fuel** 

Energy Outlook 2030, 2011).

**2.1 Expected time to depletion** 

**and the Environment** 

*Independent University, Bashundhara R/A, Dhaka,* 

