**1. Introduction**

166 Fossil Fuel and the Environment

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Today's energy markets are dominated by a substantial increase in energy demand due to the strong economic growth in the developing countries especially in China and India. At the same time it is also observed that the capacity to deliver fossil energy may be limited due to limited production capacity and lack of infrastructure such as pipeline, refining and terminal capacities (CERA, A global sense of energy insecurity). A number of nations are concerned with their security of supply with respect to delivery of power, oil and gas, and we see a development toward more nationalization of energy production and distribution in several nations. Huge investments in production capacity and infrastructure are needed in many countries to secure necessary access to energy (*IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2004, p 32*).

Emissions of carbon dioxide due to our use of fossil energy will change the climate and the temperature is estimated to increase by 2 to 6o Celsius within year 2100, which is a tremendous increase from our current average temperature of 1.7o Celsius (IPCC). This will probably cause huge changes to our society, both positive and negative, but the total impact on our society is currently very uncertain.

The global population is expected to increase by 30% the next 25 years, where 80-90% of the increase is expected to be in developing countries (*IEA, World Energy Outlook 2004, p 43-46*). To be able to establish a sustainable global development, with growth in population and living standard, it will probably be necessary to develop renewable and cleaner energy sources, improved energy efficiency and mechanisms that make it attractive to utilize new technology.

The 30 year update claims that the global system is currently in an un-sustainable situation, and that there are limits to growth on our planet – on resources, food, environment, and also in the population the earth can supply over time. If we do not act soon to establish a sustainable world, we will probably face enormous challenges in providing goods, energy and food to the population and we will probably experience recession, hunger, conflicts, reduced living conditions and maybe a significant reduction in population.

This study describes some of the background for the scenario analysis such as: potential impacts of changes in the energy resource situation, both fossil and renewable, impact on global climate, important geo-political issues and major global trends which can have an impact on the energy as well as climate.

Global Trends of Fossil Fuel Reserves and Climate Change in the 21st Century 169

Fossil fuels play a crucial role in the world energy market *(Goldemberg, 2006)*. The world's energy market worth around 1.5 trillion dollars is still dominated by fossil fuels. The World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2007 claims that energy generated from fossil fuels will remain the major source and is still expected to meet about 84% of energy demand in 2030. There is worldwide research into other reliable energy resources to replace fossil fuel, as they diminish; this is mainly being driven due to the uncertainty surrounding the future supply of fossil fuels. It is expected, however, that the global energy market will continue to depend

World oil resources are judged to be sufficient to meet the projected growth in demand until 2030, with output becoming more concentrated in Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on the assumption that the necessary investment is forthcoming IEA, 2007. According to WEO 2007 oil and gas supplies are estimated to escalate from 36 million barrels per day in 2006 to 46 million barrels per day in 2015, reaching 61 million barrels per day by 2030. In addition, oil and gas reserves are forecast at about 1300 billion barrels and 6100 trillion cubic feet in 2006, respectively (BP, 2007). The World Energy Council (WEC) in

Table 1 shows the distribution of remaining reserves of fossil fuels. Firstly, as seen in Table 1, coal constitutes approximately 65% of the fossil fuel reserves in the world, with the remaining 35% being oil and gas. Secondly, while the size and location of reserves of oil and gas are limited in the Middle East, coal remains abundant and broadly distributed around the world. Economically recoverable reserves of coal are available in more than 70 countries worldwide and in each major world region. In other words, coal reserves are not limited to mainly one location, such as oil and gas in the Middle East. These two geological reasons support the fact that coal reserves have potential to be the dominant

North America 8 170 7 185 0.86 18.20 0.75 19.81 South America 15 13 6 34 1.61 1.39 0.64 3.64 Europe 2 40 5 47 0.21 4.28 0.54 5.03 Africa 16 34 13 63 1.71 3.64 1.39 6.75 Russia 18 152 52 222 1.93 16.27 5.57 23.77 Middle East 101 0 66 167 10.81 0.00 7.07 17.88 India 1 62 1 64 0.11 6.64 0.11 6.85 China 2 76 2 80 0.21 8.14 0.21 8.57

Asia 2 60 10 72 0.21 6.42 1.07 7.71 Total 165 607 162 934 17.67 64.99 17.34 100.00

**equivalent) Fossil fuel reserve (%)** 

**Oil Coal Gas Sum Oil Coal Gas Sum** 

2007 estimated recoverable coal reserves of around 850 billion tonne in 2006.

**Region Fossil fuel reserve (giga tonnes of oil** 

Table 1. Location of the world's main fossil fuel reserves in 2006

on fossil fuels for at least the next few decades.

fossil fuel in the future.

Australia and East

[*Source*: WCI (2007) and BP (2006)]
