**5.2 Advanced seismic hazard assessment in India**

Another remarkable examples of fruitful collaborations established within EU-IndiaGrid is the activity performed on the EU-IndiaGrid computing infrastructure by ICTP/SANDs group and their Indian partners (Institute of Seismological Research (ISR), in Gujarat and CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation (C-MMACS) in Bangalore) in the area of advanced seismic hazard assessment in the Indian region of Gujarat.

Seismic risk mitigation is a worldwide concern and the development of effective mitigation strategies requires sound seismic hazard assessment. The purpose of seismic hazard analysis is to provide a scientifically consistent estimate of seismic ground shaking for engineering design and other considerations. The performances of the classical probabilistic approach to seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), currently in use in several countries worldwide, turned out fatally inadequate when considering the earthquakes occurred worldwide during the last decade, including the recent destructive earthquakes in Haiti (2010), Chile (2010) and Japan (2011).

Therefore the need for an appropriate estimate of the seismic hazard, aimed not only at the seismic classification of the national territory, but also capable of properly accounting for the local amplifications of ground shaking (with respect to bedrock), as well as for the fault properties (e.g. directivity) and the near-fault effects, is a pressing concern for seismic engineers.

Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic waves generation and propagation processes, along with the improving quantity and quality of geophysical data (spanning from seismological to satellite observations), allow nowadays for viable numerical and analytical alternatives to the use of probabilistic approaches. A set of scenarios of expected ground shaking due to a wide set of potential earthquakes can be defined by means of full waveforms modelling, based on the possibility to efficiently compute synthetic seismograms in complex laterally heterogeneous anelastic media. In this way a set of scenarios of ground motion can be defined, either at national and local scale, the latter considering the 2D and 3D heterogeneities of the medium travelled by the seismic waves.

The considered scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment, namely the NDSHA approach (neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment), builds on rigorous theoretical basis and exploits the currently available computational resources that permit to compute realistic synthetic seismograms. The integrated NDSHA approach intends to provide a fully formalized operational tool for effective seismic hazard assessment, readily applicable to compute complete time series of expected ground motion (i.e. the synthetic seismograms) for seismic engineering analysis and other mitigation actions.

300 Grid Computing – Technology and Applications, Widespread Coverage and New Horizons

different convective precipitation schemes on land and ocean, modifying the values of the parameters in the regcm.in file and changing the landuse pattern. Scientific results of Indian Summer Monsoon using RegCM4.1 compared with those of Global Climate models such as

Another remarkable examples of fruitful collaborations established within EU-IndiaGrid is the activity performed on the EU-IndiaGrid computing infrastructure by ICTP/SANDs group and their Indian partners (Institute of Seismological Research (ISR), in Gujarat and CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation (C-MMACS) in Bangalore) in the area of advanced seismic hazard assessment in the Indian region of

Seismic risk mitigation is a worldwide concern and the development of effective mitigation strategies requires sound seismic hazard assessment. The purpose of seismic hazard analysis is to provide a scientifically consistent estimate of seismic ground shaking for engineering design and other considerations. The performances of the classical probabilistic approach to seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), currently in use in several countries worldwide, turned out fatally inadequate when considering the earthquakes occurred worldwide during the last decade, including the recent destructive earthquakes in Haiti

Therefore the need for an appropriate estimate of the seismic hazard, aimed not only at the seismic classification of the national territory, but also capable of properly accounting for the local amplifications of ground shaking (with respect to bedrock), as well as for the fault properties (e.g. directivity) and the near-fault effects, is a pressing concern for seismic

Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic waves generation and propagation processes, along with the improving quantity and quality of geophysical data (spanning from seismological to satellite observations), allow nowadays for viable numerical and analytical alternatives to the use of probabilistic approaches. A set of scenarios of expected ground shaking due to a wide set of potential earthquakes can be defined by means of full waveforms modelling, based on the possibility to efficiently compute synthetic seismograms in complex laterally heterogeneous anelastic media. In this way a set of scenarios of ground motion can be defined, either at national and local scale, the latter considering the 2D and 3D heterogeneities of the medium travelled by the seismic

The considered scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment, namely the NDSHA approach (neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment), builds on rigorous theoretical basis and exploits the currently available computational resources that permit to compute realistic synthetic seismograms. The integrated NDSHA approach intends to provide a fully formalized operational tool for effective seismic hazard assessment, readily applicable to compute complete time series of expected ground motion (i.e. the synthetic seismograms)

for seismic engineering analysis and other mitigation actions.

GPCP and CRU are under study and will published soon.

**5.2 Advanced seismic hazard assessment in India** 

(2010), Chile (2010) and Japan (2011).

Gujarat.

engineers.

waves.

e-Infrastructures represent a critical mean to provide access to important computing resources and specialized software to worldwide seismological community. In fact, e-science removes some of the infrastructural barriers that prevent collaborative work at the international level. Accordingly, the proposed scientific and computational tools and networking will permit a widespread application of the advanced methodologies for seismic hazard assessment, particularly useful for urban planning and risk mitigation actions in developing countries, and, in turn, will allow for a faster development and verification of the models.

The use of the mentioned seismological methodologies can be optimized by the use of modern computational infrastructures, based on GRID computing paradigms. Advanced computational facilities, in fact, may enable scientists to compute a wide set of synthetic seismograms, dealing efficiently with variety and complexity of the potential earthquake sources, and the implementation of parametric studies to characterize the related uncertainties.

The application of the NDSHA approach to the territory of India already started in the framework of long-term bilateral cooperation projects Italy-India, involving ICTP/Sand group and CSIR C-MMACS (Bangalore). In that framework, a neo-deterministic hazard map have been produced for India, and specific studies have been performed to estimate the ground motion amplifications along selected profiles in the cities of Delhi and Kolkata. The collaboration has been recently extended to the ISR, Institute of Seismological Research (Ghandinagar, Gujarat).
