**4.1 Mitigating the effect of climatic changes on biodiversity**

Recently developed models predicted that bat species would both lose areas of suitable habitat in their original range, and would often need to move north if they were to remain in similar niches in response to climatic change (A.C. Hughes et al., in review). However in order to adapt, species must be able to reach suitable habitat. Translocation, and assisted migrations are often put forward as ways of accomplishing this (McLachlan et al., 2007). However many species face the same threats, and so how could species be selected for translocation: by uniqueness, charismatic mega fauna, ecological role or extinction risk? Too many species face the same situation, and too little information exists on many to make translocation a viable solution. Even for species selected as candidates for translocation,

Mapping a Future for Southeast Asian Biodiversity 17

I would like to thank my collaborators at Prince of Songkla University, Hat Yai, especially Sara Bumrungsri and Chutamus Satasook, and Paul Bates at the Harrison Institute. I must also thank the British Council for funding for field research which was used in making projections. Additionally I wish to thank those in my laboratories at the University of Bristol

Mean annual temperature, minimum and maximum annual temperature, minimum and

Distance from waterways and distance from roads: Edited from U.S. Geological Survey

Karsts: Karst portal- School of Environment, University of Auckland,

Geology :CCOP-Coordinating Committee of Geoscience Programmes in Asia and Southeast

Human population density: Ciesen (Grump v1: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/) A2 and B1 future climate scenarios: CIAT-GCM (Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical-Global Climate Model, - CSIRO-Mk2.0 model: http://ccafs-climate.org/)

Aitken, S.N.; Yeaman, S.; Holliday, J.A.; Wang, T. & Curtis-McLane, S. (2008). Adaptation,

Anthony, N.M.; Johnson-Bawe, M.; Jeffery, K.; Clifford, S.L.; Abernethy, K.A.; Tutin, C.E.;

Aylward, B.; Allen K.; Echeverria J. & Tosi, J. (1996). Sustainable Ecotourism in Costa Rica:

Bain, R.H.; Lathrop, A.; Murphy, R.W, Orlov, N.L. & Ho, C.T. (2003). Cryptic species of a

species. *American Museum Noviates,* Vol.3417, pp.1-60, ISSN 0003-008 Baltzer, J.L.; Davies, S.J.; Bunyavejchewin, S. & Noor, N.S.M. (2008). The role of desiccation

*Functional Ecology*, Vol.22, No. 2, pp.221-231, ISSN 0269-8463

*Evolutionary Applications* Vol.1, No.1, pp.95–111, ISSN 17524563

migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations,

Lahm, S.A.; White, L.J.T.; Utley, J.F.; Wickings, E.J. & Bruford, M.W. (2007). The role of Pleistocene refugia and rivers in shaping gorilla genetic diversity in central Africa. *Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences USA,* Vol.104, No.51, pp.20432–

The Monteverde Cloud Forest. *Biodiversity and Conservation,* Vol.5, No.3, pp.315-43,

cascade frog from Southeast Asia: taxonomic revisions and descriptions of six new

tolerance in determining tree species distributions along the Malay-Thai Peninsula.

Asia (www.ccop.or.th/),Prince of Songkla University's GIS centre, Ministry of

maximum mouthy precipitation, total annual precipitation, isothermality:

and Prince of Songkla University for their support during research.

Vegetation cover: Globcover-Ionia (http://ionia1.esrin.esa.int/)

Elevation: NGDC http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/topo/globe.html)

(http://web.env.auckland.ac.nz/our\_research/karst/)

Variables included in species distribution models:

Humidity: New et al. 1999 (http://atlas.sage.wisc.edu/)

www.worldclim.org

Soil pH :ISRIC-WISE (www.isric.org/)

Mining in Myanmar.

20436, ISSN 0027-8424

ISSN 0960-3115

(USGS- www.usgs.gov/)

**6. Acknowledgments** 

**7. Appendix 1.** 

**8. References** 

(due to IUCN status, or other factors) some species react poorly and show poor survival following translocation (Weinberger et al., 2009). Consequently translocation is not a practicable solution, both due to the number of species that face threat and the variability in the reaction to translocation in particular species, in addition to the financial cost. Humanmediated adaptive strategies should allow species to shift ranges in response to climate change (similar changes have occurred naturally during previous periods of climate change (Hickling et al., 2006; Lenoir et al., 2008)). Movements can be assisted by increasing landscape connectivity, by creating corridors of native forest between existing forest patches particularly in a north-south orientation (Heller & Zavaleta, 2008). These areas must be wide enough so not to act as population sinks, and must contain heterogeneity of both species and genetic variation in order to be viable and sustainable (Lamb et al., 2008, Lamb & Erskine, 2008; Kettle, 2010). Hence there is a need for careful matching of tree species to soil type and area between sites, and corridors should also contain site-appropriate plants including nitrogen-fixing legumes to increase canopy density (Siddique et al., 2008; Suzuki et al., 2009). Afforestation has begun in many countries (UK, Vietnam; McNamara, et al., 2006; McNamara, et al., 2008), and if it is used to connect areas it will give species a higher probability of responding effectively to climatic change, by allowing the species to expand their ranges north as detailed in predictive models (fig.2) and studies in other regions (Malcolm et al., 2006) and therefore not suffer severe reductions in overall range.
