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**Part 4** 

**Models** 


**Part 4** 

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**9** 

*USA* 

**Resilience and Stability Associated with** 

A clear understanding of boreal forest dynamics is critical to developing an accurate representation of the Earth's response to climate change. The Russian boreal forest is the largest continuous forest region on Earth and a tremendous repository of terrestrial organic carbon. The boreal forest has experienced significant warming over the past several decades and is expected to be impacted by global climate change (Chapin et al., 2000; McGuire et al., 2002; Soja et al., 2007). Siberian summers in the past century were warmer than any century in the past millennium, and future climate scenarios indicate that the region will continue warming, by some accounts between 2° and 10°C by 2100 (IPCC 2007; Soja et al., 2007). Warming climate will likely exert influence on species distributions and land cover types in the boreal forest regions (Ustin and Xiao 2001; Tchebakova et al., 2005; Tchebakova et al., 2009). In particular, these temperature increases have led to the shift of treelines northward or upslope of previous climate limits, and a reduction in cone and seed yield for *Larix sibirica* and *Pinus slyvestris* which changes forest composition and structure (Kharuk et al., 2009; Soja et al., 2007). These changes are important indicators of how Eurasian boreal forests

may respond to, and ultimately amplify, increases in average global temperature.

These land cover changes can force alterations in regional climate through modifications in surface albedo and land/atmosphere energy fluxes (Bonan et al., 1992; Chapin et al., 2000; Baldocchi 2000; Amiro 2001; Beringer et al., 2005; Soja et al., 2007), as well as in global climate through changes in carbon sequestration and release patterns (Bonan 2008; Snyder et al., 2004). Global climate model (GCM) results have shown that clearing boreal forest alters surface albedo, and substantially cools the Earth, not only in the boreal region but across the Northern Hemisphere (Bonan et al., 1992), and has the greatest effect on global mean temperature when compared to the removal of other biomes (Snyder et al., 2004). Betts (2000) found surface albedo changes associated with the growth of coniferous evergreen trees led to significant increases in average global temperature large enough to overshadow the effect of carbon storage by growing evergreen forest in that region. Bioclimatic modeling predicts that by 2090 vegetation change across Siberia will create an albedo shift and increase overall net radiation, thereby producing enhanced warming above that already predicted for the high latitudes (Vygodskaya et al., 2007). Larch (*Larix* spp.) forest, dominated by both *L. sibirica* and *L. gmelinii,* covers extensive regions in Siberia. Field observations have documented shifts from larch to evergreen conifer forests, dominated by trees such as spruce (*Picea* spp.) or fir (*Abies* spp.) that are tolerant of higher temperatures

**1. Introduction** 

Jacquelyn Kremper Shuman and Herman Henry Shugart *University of Virginia, Department of Environmental Sciences* 

**Conversion of Boreal Forest** 
