**4. Newcomers in space exploration**

In this section, we first visit the prerequisites of an ambitious program for space exploration. Then we discuss the major difficulties that an aspiring nation will face. Some advantages that the newcomers will enjoy are the subject of the following sub-section. Finally, we

How Newcomers Will Participate in Space Exploration 17

commercialization of developed technologies and funding spinoffs to step forward for

Organizational capabilities are also important to succeed in space programs. An effective and efficient organization that can be kept out of daily political melee should coordinate all

Although the world has seen an increase in space technologies and applications so far, many developing and newly industrialized countries have been facing several problems including "inadequate information, high cost, difficulty of accessing the data, no involvement of end users, sustainability of transferred technologies and lack of commercialization of space activities" (Noichim, 2008), limited availability of highly reliable, high performance, electrical, electronic and electro-mechanical components to trade restriction imposed by export licenses, agreements safe guarding technology, and US International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) and other countries' export licenses, technology safe guard agreements and dependency on other nations for launch campaigns. These generic and common problems are the basic hurdles in the race to space of newcomers. In this subsection, we summarize the most important obstacles to for space exploration missions for newcomers.

Access to space is one of the major problems for newcomers to achieve orbital success. There is no doubt that certain countries may develop state of the art tools, payloads and spacecrafts, but only limited number of them are able to reach the orbit with their own will and abilities. Russia, the US and France are the main actors in this field and they inspired Asian nations, starting from India, China, Japan and South Korea in the area of space exploration. The first three have already reached sustainable, self reliant and self sufficient launch vehicle development programs to guarantee the access to space. However, the highly elliptical orbits necessary for outer space explorations may require more than the available capabilities of low earth orbit launch. Figure 4 summarizes the countries with the orbital

The experience of South Korea is a good example of difficulties of obtaining this capability. South Korea's Korean Space Launch Vehicle (KSLV) program was initiated with the cooperation of the Russian Federation and South Korea in 2004 as a part of a turn-key contract for the delivery of first stage engine of a launch vehicle, launch site and necessary services. South Korea contributed to the program with the second stage of the launch vehicle and test satellites. The KSLV is the first carrier rocket that made its maiden flight from Naro Space Centre in South Korea in 2009, followed by a second flight in 2010. Both flights dramatically ended up in failure and resulted in the loss of two technology

Today, Asian nations like Indonesia, Taiwan, Iran and Malaysia have sounding rockets or low earth orbit launch vehicle programs. Although Indonesia works with Ukraine and Russia while Malaysia works with Japan and Russia, there is a long way to go before these

demonstration satellites, moral, public support, motivation and public financing.

launch capabilities, whose launch vehicles confirmed to reach orbit.

rockets serve space exploration missions.

industrialization.

the efforts.

**4.2 Difficulties** 

**4.2.1 Access to space** 

discuss some possible ways that these nations can contribute to space exploration with examples in the next section.

#### **4.1 Prerequisites**

Of course, certain prerequisites exist for the contribution of a nation to space exploration. The basic capabilities of space technology, including the infrastructure, like clean rooms and environmental testing chambers, human resources, basic know-how of design, assembly and test facilities, are musts. The newcomers that are the subject of this work are assumed to have already reached that level.

Another important prerequisite is the existence of strong universities and research institutes that can support scientific missions. This requirement is closely related to the science and technology policies and the R&D expenditures of the country, as well as strong GDP levels.

Per the Science Citation Index, many of the newly industrialized and developing countries are getting stronger and investing more to support their scientific and academic basis, which will be the main source of space science and technology studies.

According to a report published by the Royal Society in London (The Royal Society, 2011), China has acquired a second place ranking in the number of articles published in international science journals, and has already overtaken the UK. By 2020 China is positioned to take the leading position from the US. While the top 10 is still dominated by the major Western powers and Japan, who are producing high quality publications and attracting researchers to their world class universities and research institutes, their share of published research papers is falling and China, Brazil and India are coming up fast. While Western EU Countries and Japan produced 59 percent of all spending on science globally, their dominant position is nevertheless slipping against the newcomers.

The Royal Society report also states that China improved from sixth place in 1999-2003 (4.4 percent of the total) to second place behind the US over the years 2004-2008 (10.2 percent of the total), thus overtaking Japan. Newcomers like Iran and Turkey are also making dramatic progress. Turkey's improved scientific performance has been almost as dramatic as China's. The country increased its investment in research and development nearly six-fold between 1995 and 2007, and during the same period, the number of researchers increased by 43 percent.

The fact that the newcomers that have successful space programs are at the same time the countries whose share of scientific publications is increasing is not a coincidence. To summarize, achieving a strong scientific background relies on strong government funding for R&D and a sustainable budget for the universities. Newcomers lacking in a strong scientific and technological basis will have little chance to achieve success.

Key driving forces for the sustainability of space activities in the long term include, political will, public support, competitive pressure from neighbouring countries (Taiwan, Japan and Iran examples), in addition to basic capabilities and a strong scientific background. If we consider the emerging countries mentioned in the previous section, creation of public support shall be supported with providing employment opportunities for the new generation, supporting scientific opportunities for universities and institutes, answering daily needs like disaster management, remote sensing, telecommunication, commercialization of developed technologies and funding spinoffs to step forward for industrialization.

Organizational capabilities are also important to succeed in space programs. An effective and efficient organization that can be kept out of daily political melee should coordinate all the efforts.

### **4.2 Difficulties**

16 Space Science

discuss some possible ways that these nations can contribute to space exploration with

Of course, certain prerequisites exist for the contribution of a nation to space exploration. The basic capabilities of space technology, including the infrastructure, like clean rooms and environmental testing chambers, human resources, basic know-how of design, assembly and test facilities, are musts. The newcomers that are the subject of this work are assumed to

Another important prerequisite is the existence of strong universities and research institutes that can support scientific missions. This requirement is closely related to the science and technology policies and the R&D expenditures of the country, as well as strong GDP levels. Per the Science Citation Index, many of the newly industrialized and developing countries are getting stronger and investing more to support their scientific and academic basis, which

According to a report published by the Royal Society in London (The Royal Society, 2011), China has acquired a second place ranking in the number of articles published in international science journals, and has already overtaken the UK. By 2020 China is positioned to take the leading position from the US. While the top 10 is still dominated by the major Western powers and Japan, who are producing high quality publications and attracting researchers to their world class universities and research institutes, their share of published research papers is falling and China, Brazil and India are coming up fast. While Western EU Countries and Japan produced 59 percent of all spending on science globally,

The Royal Society report also states that China improved from sixth place in 1999-2003 (4.4 percent of the total) to second place behind the US over the years 2004-2008 (10.2 percent of the total), thus overtaking Japan. Newcomers like Iran and Turkey are also making dramatic progress. Turkey's improved scientific performance has been almost as dramatic as China's. The country increased its investment in research and development nearly six-fold between 1995 and 2007, and during the same period, the number of

The fact that the newcomers that have successful space programs are at the same time the countries whose share of scientific publications is increasing is not a coincidence. To summarize, achieving a strong scientific background relies on strong government funding for R&D and a sustainable budget for the universities. Newcomers lacking in a strong

Key driving forces for the sustainability of space activities in the long term include, political will, public support, competitive pressure from neighbouring countries (Taiwan, Japan and Iran examples), in addition to basic capabilities and a strong scientific background. If we consider the emerging countries mentioned in the previous section, creation of public support shall be supported with providing employment opportunities for the new generation, supporting scientific opportunities for universities and institutes, answering daily needs like disaster management, remote sensing, telecommunication,

will be the main source of space science and technology studies.

their dominant position is nevertheless slipping against the newcomers.

scientific and technological basis will have little chance to achieve success.

examples in the next section.

have already reached that level.

researchers increased by 43 percent.

**4.1 Prerequisites** 

Although the world has seen an increase in space technologies and applications so far, many developing and newly industrialized countries have been facing several problems including "inadequate information, high cost, difficulty of accessing the data, no involvement of end users, sustainability of transferred technologies and lack of commercialization of space activities" (Noichim, 2008), limited availability of highly reliable, high performance, electrical, electronic and electro-mechanical components to trade restriction imposed by export licenses, agreements safe guarding technology, and US International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) and other countries' export licenses, technology safe guard agreements and dependency on other nations for launch campaigns. These generic and common problems are the basic hurdles in the race to space of newcomers. In this subsection, we summarize the most important obstacles to for space exploration missions for newcomers.

#### **4.2.1 Access to space**

Access to space is one of the major problems for newcomers to achieve orbital success. There is no doubt that certain countries may develop state of the art tools, payloads and spacecrafts, but only limited number of them are able to reach the orbit with their own will and abilities. Russia, the US and France are the main actors in this field and they inspired Asian nations, starting from India, China, Japan and South Korea in the area of space exploration. The first three have already reached sustainable, self reliant and self sufficient launch vehicle development programs to guarantee the access to space. However, the highly elliptical orbits necessary for outer space explorations may require more than the available capabilities of low earth orbit launch. Figure 4 summarizes the countries with the orbital launch capabilities, whose launch vehicles confirmed to reach orbit.

The experience of South Korea is a good example of difficulties of obtaining this capability. South Korea's Korean Space Launch Vehicle (KSLV) program was initiated with the cooperation of the Russian Federation and South Korea in 2004 as a part of a turn-key contract for the delivery of first stage engine of a launch vehicle, launch site and necessary services. South Korea contributed to the program with the second stage of the launch vehicle and test satellites. The KSLV is the first carrier rocket that made its maiden flight from Naro Space Centre in South Korea in 2009, followed by a second flight in 2010. Both flights dramatically ended up in failure and resulted in the loss of two technology demonstration satellites, moral, public support, motivation and public financing.

Today, Asian nations like Indonesia, Taiwan, Iran and Malaysia have sounding rockets or low earth orbit launch vehicle programs. Although Indonesia works with Ukraine and Russia while Malaysia works with Japan and Russia, there is a long way to go before these rockets serve space exploration missions.

How Newcomers Will Participate in Space Exploration 19

suitable for escape manoeuvre via apogee kick engine and provides launch to solar system destinations except the Moon. They are also used for satellite radio applications by the US and communication purposes by Russia during cold war-era. HEO access is harder to achieve due to several cutting edge technologies onboard the launch vehicle and so far only

To be able to reach the Moon, Moon Transfer Orbit (MTO-Hohmann transfer orbit) is generally used. In orbital mechanics, the Hohmann transfer orbit is an elliptical orbit used to transfer between two (typically coplanar) circular orbits. The orbital maneuver to perform the Hohmann transfer uses two engine impulses which, under standard assumptions, move a spacecraft in and out of the transfer orbit. This maneuver was named after Walter Hohmann, the German scientist. MTO orbit is achieved by Indian, Russian, Japanese,

On-board propulsion is required to make necessary manoeuvres from the initial orbits for space exploration missions. Interplanetary travel requires new propulsion systems and new ways of generating power (Czysz, 2006). Although nuclear energy could be an alternative and unique way to discover our solar system and beyond, only Russia and the US have achieved this technology so far. This is a definitely limiting factor for newcomers wishing to pursue exploration of Mars and beyond. To be able to design satellites reasonably small to fit in launch vehicles, Isp, the specific impulse, must at least double. However, a limiting factor for using chemical sources starts at this point and they do not permit benefitting from commonly used cold gas propulsion or hydrazine systems to be employed on board, as

For outer space transportation, the ultimate alternative could be ion propulsion or Hall Effect thrust, which is a mature and qualified technology. This technology is safe, peaceful and easily be accessible for at least some of the newcomers and attracts the way for outer

However, another major problem is maintaining the temperature of the satellite battery and other subsystems as the spacecraft grows increasingly distant from the Sun and the heating effect of the sunlight to approach other space objects like Mars. It is clear that a simple way will have to be discovered by scientists to solve this problem so that reliance on nuclear reactors for propulsion is terminated. Otherwise, all nations will remain dependent on the nuclear superpowers, which is another limiting factor for newcomers to pursue outer space

The next obstacle is the difficulty to convince politicians to allocate sufficient funds for space exploration. The funding of costly projects like telecommunication satellites, high-resolution earth observation satellites, or launchers is easier to justify on economic, strategic or security-related grounds. Although space exploration projects can be defended for their technological returns in the long run, spill-over effects, reversing brain-drain and promoting science, and their positive psychological effects on the public, securing the necessary funds is not easy. Most space exploration missions are extremely costly, for example, NASA's

these chemical sources will finish much earlier than providing necessary thrust.

Russia, US and Japan managed to launch satellites to HEO orbits.

Chinese and US launch vehicles so far.

space exploration.

exploration.

**4.2.2 Funding** 

**4.2.1.2 On board propulsion for space exploration** 

Hence, most of the newcomers are dependent on launch vehicles from other countries. Dedicated launches for these missions are very costly and shared launches for the required peculiar orbits are very difficult to arrange and manage.

Fig. 4. Space Launch Capability. Pink: countries capable of launch technologies, Dark red: ESA, light blue: Countries with limited launch capability, blue: Countries thought to be very close to performing the first successful launch.

#### **4.2.1.1 Important orbits for space exploration missions**

The elliptical orbit is the primary way to access the Moon, Mars and beyond as they can provide escape from earth's gravity field. Orbits have different classifications from geostationary earth orbit (GEO) to geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), from Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) to Moon Transfer Orbit (MTO) or Earth-Moon Transfer Orbit (EMTO).

Low Earth orbit (LEO) is geocentric orbits ranging in altitude from 0–2,000 km and is the suitable orbit altitude for remote sensing satellites, suborbital launches, mobile communications, zero-g and biological experiments. LEO access is relatively more common than the others and number of LEO launch rockets and the number of countries who could achieve LEO access is more common.

Geostationary orbit (GEO) is the orbit around Earth matching Earth's sidereal rotation period. All geostationary orbits have a semi-major axis of 42,164 km. And this orbit is suitable for geostationary communications for TV, radio, telephone signals and meteorology applications while geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) is used for transferring communication satellites from LEO to GEO. GTO is an elliptic orbit where the perigee is at the altitude of a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and the apogee at the altitude of a geostationary orbit. GEO launch vehicle is relatively limited than LEO launch vehicle and countries who could achieve this success are; US, Russia, China, France and India.

There are other certain orbit types that are used for outer space exploration. High Earth orbit (HEO) is the geocentric orbit above the altitude of geosynchronous orbit 3,786 km and 18 Space Science

Hence, most of the newcomers are dependent on launch vehicles from other countries. Dedicated launches for these missions are very costly and shared launches for the required

Fig. 4. Space Launch Capability. Pink: countries capable of launch technologies, Dark red: ESA, light blue: Countries with limited launch capability, blue: Countries thought to be very

The elliptical orbit is the primary way to access the Moon, Mars and beyond as they can provide escape from earth's gravity field. Orbits have different classifications from geostationary earth orbit (GEO) to geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), from Medium Earth

Low Earth orbit (LEO) is geocentric orbits ranging in altitude from 0–2,000 km and is the suitable orbit altitude for remote sensing satellites, suborbital launches, mobile communications, zero-g and biological experiments. LEO access is relatively more common than the others and number of LEO launch rockets and the number of countries who could

Geostationary orbit (GEO) is the orbit around Earth matching Earth's sidereal rotation period. All geostationary orbits have a semi-major axis of 42,164 km. And this orbit is suitable for geostationary communications for TV, radio, telephone signals and meteorology applications while geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) is used for transferring communication satellites from LEO to GEO. GTO is an elliptic orbit where the perigee is at the altitude of a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and the apogee at the altitude of a geostationary orbit. GEO launch vehicle is relatively limited than LEO launch vehicle and countries who

There are other certain orbit types that are used for outer space exploration. High Earth orbit (HEO) is the geocentric orbit above the altitude of geosynchronous orbit 3,786 km and

Orbit (MEO) to Moon Transfer Orbit (MTO) or Earth-Moon Transfer Orbit (EMTO).

could achieve this success are; US, Russia, China, France and India.

peculiar orbits are very difficult to arrange and manage.

close to performing the first successful launch.

achieve LEO access is more common.

**4.2.1.1 Important orbits for space exploration missions** 

suitable for escape manoeuvre via apogee kick engine and provides launch to solar system destinations except the Moon. They are also used for satellite radio applications by the US and communication purposes by Russia during cold war-era. HEO access is harder to achieve due to several cutting edge technologies onboard the launch vehicle and so far only Russia, US and Japan managed to launch satellites to HEO orbits.

To be able to reach the Moon, Moon Transfer Orbit (MTO-Hohmann transfer orbit) is generally used. In orbital mechanics, the Hohmann transfer orbit is an elliptical orbit used to transfer between two (typically coplanar) circular orbits. The orbital maneuver to perform the Hohmann transfer uses two engine impulses which, under standard assumptions, move a spacecraft in and out of the transfer orbit. This maneuver was named after Walter Hohmann, the German scientist. MTO orbit is achieved by Indian, Russian, Japanese, Chinese and US launch vehicles so far.

#### **4.2.1.2 On board propulsion for space exploration**

On-board propulsion is required to make necessary manoeuvres from the initial orbits for space exploration missions. Interplanetary travel requires new propulsion systems and new ways of generating power (Czysz, 2006). Although nuclear energy could be an alternative and unique way to discover our solar system and beyond, only Russia and the US have achieved this technology so far. This is a definitely limiting factor for newcomers wishing to pursue exploration of Mars and beyond. To be able to design satellites reasonably small to fit in launch vehicles, Isp, the specific impulse, must at least double. However, a limiting factor for using chemical sources starts at this point and they do not permit benefitting from commonly used cold gas propulsion or hydrazine systems to be employed on board, as these chemical sources will finish much earlier than providing necessary thrust.

For outer space transportation, the ultimate alternative could be ion propulsion or Hall Effect thrust, which is a mature and qualified technology. This technology is safe, peaceful and easily be accessible for at least some of the newcomers and attracts the way for outer space exploration.

However, another major problem is maintaining the temperature of the satellite battery and other subsystems as the spacecraft grows increasingly distant from the Sun and the heating effect of the sunlight to approach other space objects like Mars. It is clear that a simple way will have to be discovered by scientists to solve this problem so that reliance on nuclear reactors for propulsion is terminated. Otherwise, all nations will remain dependent on the nuclear superpowers, which is another limiting factor for newcomers to pursue outer space exploration.
