**4. Ongoing plans**

100 Atmospheric Model Applications

based sensitivity areas for the typhoon were located on the right side of the moving direction of the typhoon, which was dominated by potential energy components in the midlower troposphere. Compared with global model singular vectors (GSVs), MSVs reflected

A mesoscale EPS system using MSV and GSV is under development at JMA (Ono et al.,

An international research project of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP; Duan et al. 2012) was conducted in conjunction with the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. The main component of B08RDP was short-range forecasting of up to 36 h based on mesoscale EPSs with a horizontal resolution of 15 km. Six institutions from five countries [MRI, NCEP, Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) of Austria, National Meteorological Center (NMC) of CMA, and Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS)] participated in the project, and were requested to run their EPSs for a forecast time of up to 36 h, starting every day at 1200 UTC. Prior to the 2008 intercomparison period (one month, from 25 July to 23 August 2008), MRI developed five initial perturbation methods: (1) a downscaling of JMA's operational oneweek EPS (WEP; Saito et al., 2010a), (2) a targeted global model singular vector (GSV; Yamaguchi et al., 2009; Hara, 2010) method, (3) MSV method based on the adjoint model of NHM (Kunii, 2010a), (4) a mesoscale breeding of growing modes (MBD) method based on the NHM forecast (Saito, 2007), and (5) a local ensemble transform Kalman filter using NHM (LETKF; Miyoshi and Aranami, 2006; Seko, 2010). Saito et al. (2011a) objectively compared the results of the ensemble forecasts made with these five methods by evaluating the evolution of the ensemble spreads, the RMSE of the ensemble mean. GSV was selected as the initial perturbation method, considering its performance for weak to moderate rain QPF and the RMSE characteristics. The initial condition of the MRI/JMA system was prepared

Kunii et al. (2011) reported the results of the international EPS intercomparison. Verification was performed using the MEP outputs interpolated into a common verification domain. For all systems, the ensemble spreads grew as the forecast time increased, and the ensemble mean improved the RMSEs compared with individual control forecasts in the verification against the analysis fields. MRI/JMA's EPS and the control run had the best performance among the six EPS systems for predicting surface conditions (2m temperature and relative humidity) and weak to moderate rains, in terms of RSMEs against the initial condition and

Details of MRI and JMA's activities in B08FDP/RDP have been published as an MRI

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) technique is a new method of data assimilation that employs ensemble prediction to estimate forecast error. Miyoshi and Aranami (2006)

small scale structures that affect mesoscale disturbances.

**3.5.4 WWRP Beijing Olympics 2008 RDP project** 

by applying Meso 4DVAR to the B08RDP area (Kunii et al., 2010a).

the threat scores.

Technical Report (Saito et al., 2010b).

**3.5.5 Ensemble Kalman filter** 

2011), assuming operational application.

### **4.1 Next generation supercomputer project in Japan**

The next-generation supercomputer project, "Strategic Programs for Innovative Research (SPIRE)", is being carried out under a MEXT initiative. A supercomputer center was built in the city of Kobe by the RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science (AICS). The supercomputer 'K' achieved the benchmark performance of 10.51 petaflops in November 2011 with a total of 88,128 CPUs of the FUJITSU SAPARC64 processor.

The SPIRE project consists of five strategic research fields (life science and medicine, new material and energy, disaster prevention, engineering, and matter and universe). A five-year research plan of high performance NWP with cloud resolving ensemble data assimilation has been endorsed as a sub-subject of Field 3 in SPIRE (Saito et al., 2011c). The sub-subject on mesoscale NWP has three goals:


The JMA Nonhydrostatic Model and Its Applications to Operation and Research 103

Fig. 5. Field campaign in TOMACS. Courtesy of NIED and the Meteorological Satellite and

The author thanks T. Kato, C. Muroi, H. Eito, T. Hara, Y. Honda, Ts. Fujita, Ta. Fujita, J. Ishida and many scientists of NPD/JMA for their significant contributions towards developing NHM and its data assimilation systems. Figure 1 was quoted by courtesy of T. Hara and H. Kusabiraki of NPD. The author also thanks H. Seko, T. Kawabata, M. Kunii, Y. Shoji, S. Origuchi, K. Aonashi, T. Tsuyuki, Y. Yamada, M. Murakami, and several researchers of MRI, as well as T. Kuroda and L. Duc of JAMSTEC, for their research and development. Thanks are extended to T. Tokioka and F. Kimura of JAMSTEC and M. Maki of NIED for their leadership in conducting the research projects SPIRE and TOMACS. This study was partly supported by MEXT through a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (21244074) "Study of advanced data assimilation and cloud resolving ensemble technique

Aonashi, K. and Eito, H. (2011). Displaced ensemble variational assimilation method to

Aoyagi, T., and Seino, N. (2011). A square prism urban canopy scheme for the NHM and its

Clark, T.L. (1977). A small scale numerical model using a terrain following coordinate

Deardorff, J.W. (1980). Stratocumulus-capped mixed layers derived from a three-

Duan, Y., Gong, J., Du, J., Charron, M., Chen, J., Deng, G., DiMego, G., Hara, M., Kunii, M.,

dimensional model. *Boundary-Layer Meteorol.*, Vol.18, pp.495-527.

incorporate microwave imager data into a cloud-resolving model. *J. Meteor. Soc.* 

evaluation on summer conditions in the Tokyo metropolitan area, Japan. *J. Appl.* 

Li, X., , Li, Y., Saito, K., Seko, H., Wang, Y., and Wittmann, C. (2012). An overview

Observing System Research Department of MRI.

**5. Acknowledgments** 

for prediction of local heavy rainfall".

*Japan*, Vol.89, pp.175-194.

*Meteor. Climatol.*, Vol.50, pp.1476-1496.

system. *J. Comp. Phys.*, Vol.24, pp.186-215.

**6. References** 

The goal of a) is to dynamically predict local heavy rainfalls with deep convection by assimilating dense observation data. As described in the previous section, high resolution data assimilation methods (*e.g.*, 4D-VAR and LETKF) have been developed and applied to case studies of cloud resolving forecast experiments of precipitation. In addition, a displaced ensemble variational assimilation method has also been developed and tested for a data assimilation experiment on satellite microwave imager data (Aonashi and Eito, 2011).

The goal of b) is to demonstrate the plausibility of the probabilistic quantitative forecast of heavy rainfalls for disaster prevention by cloud resolving ensemble NWP. A NHM-LETKF system using incremental approach has been developed by Fujita et al. (2011) and has been tested at MRI in anticipation of application to the K computer (Kuroda et al., 2011). A cloud resolving (2 km) ensemble forecast experiment was performed for the summer of 2010 as a test trial. The JNoVA 4DVAR analyses were used as the initial conditions, and the JMA oneweek ensemble prediction was used as the boundary perturbations. Duc et al. (2012) evaluated the ensemble prediction with the fraction skill score extended to temporal spaces. Results of the ensemble prediction will also be used for input data of river and flood models for risk management applications at Kyoto University.

In c), parameterizations in the cloud resolving model *(e.g.,* the bulk cloud microphysics and the PBL scheme) are assesed and modified using the spectral BIN method and the LES model. Mechanisms of typhoons and tornados are also examined by very high resolution simulations.

### **4.2 Tokyo metropolitan area convection study (TOMACS)**

Observation data are critical in high resolution data assimilation experiments. A field campaign in the Tokyo metropolitan area with a dense observation network is being conducted by MRI, the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED), and twelve national institutions and universities in Japan. This field experiment is part of the research program 'Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study for Extreme Weather Resilient Cities (TOMACS)'. The intensive operational periods are set in the summers of 2011 to 2013. The research project consists of the following three subjects.


Unprecedented dense observations including fourteen Doppler radars, six Doppler lidars, a high resolution (3 km) AWS network, a KU-band fast scan MP radar, and five additional GPS stations are deployed as a possible international test-bed for deep convection (Fig. 5).

## **4.3 Local forecast model at JMA**

JMA is planning to run a high resolution (2 km horizontally and 60 layers vertically) local forecast model in 2012 for the aviation weather forecast and the very short range forecast of precipitation. A rapid update cycle with a 3D-VAR version of JNoVA (Fukuda et al., 2011) will be used to prepare initial conditions hourly. Performance of NHM with a horizontal resolution of 2 km as a regional NWP model has been verified (Hirahara et al., 2011), while a new dynamical core 'asuca' is under development considering better computational efficiency in the new parallel computer system at JMA (Ishida et al. 2010).

Fig. 5. Field campaign in TOMACS. Courtesy of NIED and the Meteorological Satellite and Observing System Research Department of MRI.

## **5. Acknowledgments**

102 Atmospheric Model Applications

The goal of a) is to dynamically predict local heavy rainfalls with deep convection by assimilating dense observation data. As described in the previous section, high resolution data assimilation methods (*e.g.*, 4D-VAR and LETKF) have been developed and applied to case studies of cloud resolving forecast experiments of precipitation. In addition, a displaced ensemble variational assimilation method has also been developed and tested for a data assimilation experiment on satellite microwave imager data (Aonashi and Eito, 2011).

The goal of b) is to demonstrate the plausibility of the probabilistic quantitative forecast of heavy rainfalls for disaster prevention by cloud resolving ensemble NWP. A NHM-LETKF system using incremental approach has been developed by Fujita et al. (2011) and has been tested at MRI in anticipation of application to the K computer (Kuroda et al., 2011). A cloud resolving (2 km) ensemble forecast experiment was performed for the summer of 2010 as a test trial. The JNoVA 4DVAR analyses were used as the initial conditions, and the JMA oneweek ensemble prediction was used as the boundary perturbations. Duc et al. (2012) evaluated the ensemble prediction with the fraction skill score extended to temporal spaces. Results of the ensemble prediction will also be used for input data of river and flood models

In c), parameterizations in the cloud resolving model *(e.g.,* the bulk cloud microphysics and the PBL scheme) are assesed and modified using the spectral BIN method and the LES model. Mechanisms of typhoons and tornados are also examined by very high resolution

Observation data are critical in high resolution data assimilation experiments. A field campaign in the Tokyo metropolitan area with a dense observation network is being conducted by MRI, the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED), and twelve national institutions and universities in Japan. This field experiment is part of the research program 'Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study for Extreme Weather Resilient Cities (TOMACS)'. The intensive operational periods are set in the summers of 2011 to 2013. The research project consists of the following three subjects.

Unprecedented dense observations including fourteen Doppler radars, six Doppler lidars, a high resolution (3 km) AWS network, a KU-band fast scan MP radar, and five additional GPS stations are deployed as a possible international test-bed for deep convection (Fig. 5).

JMA is planning to run a high resolution (2 km horizontally and 60 layers vertically) local forecast model in 2012 for the aviation weather forecast and the very short range forecast of precipitation. A rapid update cycle with a 3D-VAR version of JNoVA (Fukuda et al., 2011) will be used to prepare initial conditions hourly. Performance of NHM with a horizontal resolution of 2 km as a regional NWP model has been verified (Hirahara et al., 2011), while a new dynamical core 'asuca' is under development considering better computational

for risk management applications at Kyoto University.

**4.2 Tokyo metropolitan area convection study (TOMACS)** 

3. Social experiments on extreme weather resilient cities.

**4.3 Local forecast model at JMA** 

1. Studies of extreme weather with dense meteorological observations. 2. Development of an extreme weather early detection and prediction system.

efficiency in the new parallel computer system at JMA (Ishida et al. 2010).

simulations.

The author thanks T. Kato, C. Muroi, H. Eito, T. Hara, Y. Honda, Ts. Fujita, Ta. Fujita, J. Ishida and many scientists of NPD/JMA for their significant contributions towards developing NHM and its data assimilation systems. Figure 1 was quoted by courtesy of T. Hara and H. Kusabiraki of NPD. The author also thanks H. Seko, T. Kawabata, M. Kunii, Y. Shoji, S. Origuchi, K. Aonashi, T. Tsuyuki, Y. Yamada, M. Murakami, and several researchers of MRI, as well as T. Kuroda and L. Duc of JAMSTEC, for their research and development. Thanks are extended to T. Tokioka and F. Kimura of JAMSTEC and M. Maki of NIED for their leadership in conducting the research projects SPIRE and TOMACS. This study was partly supported by MEXT through a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (21244074) "Study of advanced data assimilation and cloud resolving ensemble technique for prediction of local heavy rainfall".

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**6** 

Yehia Hafez

*Egypt* 

*Space Science and Meteorology* 

**Variability of Intertropical Convergence** 

*Cairo University, Faculty of Science Department of Astronomy,* 

**Zone (ITCZ) and Extreme Weather Events** 

For case one, the UK severed from abnormal severs cold winter season on 2009. The mean temperature for that winter was 3.2 °C, which was 0.5 °C below average of (1971-2000), provisionally making it the coldest winter since 1996/97. Whereas, Mean temperatures over the UK were 1.1 °C below the average during December 2008, 0.6 °C below average during January and 0.2 °C above average during February during that season. A generally cold first half to December was followed by a milder period, before turning very cold by the first of January see Figure (1). This very cold spell persisted for the first 10 days of January, with some severe frosts, followed by alternating milder and colder periods. Despite a cold (and snowy) first half of February, milder conditions later resulted in near-normal temperatures overall. Rainfall amounts over the UK were below the 1971-2000 average during December with 70%, January was close to average with 98% and February was drier than average with 63%. In December, parts of south-east England, East Anglia and Wales had less than 50% of the average rainfall and in February much of Wales, north-west England and western Scotland recorded less than 50% of average. Significant snowfalls occurred in the first half of February, particularly over England and Wales during the first week, when depths greater than 15 cm were recorded quite widely. The last time of that winter season a comparable snowy spell occurred was in February 1991 (MetOffice., UK, 2009). However, there are several scientific literatures challenge the abnormal weather conditions [e.g. (Cohen et al., 2001; Hafez 2007, 2008; and Rosting & Kristjansson 2008)]. In addition to that identification, oscillations, and influence of the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) in the atmospheric cooling weather conditions had studied by (Bates 1970; Pike 1972; Citeau 1988b; Gadgil & Guruprasad 1990; Waliser 1992, 1994; Hess et al., 1993; Philander et al., 1996; Kraus 1997; Sultan & Janicot 2000; Hafez 2003a; Broccoli et al., 2006; and Raymond 2006). However, climate simulations, using models with different levels of complexity, indicated that the north-south position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) responds to changes in interhemispheric temperature contrast. The present work aims to investigate the relationship between the Atlantic Western Africa ITCZ variability and the surface air temperature over UK through months of the winter 2009. For case two, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is one of the most recognizable aspects of the global circulation that influence in the atmospheric weather. The ITCZ forms as a zonally elongated band of cloud at low latitudes nearness of the equator where the northeasterly and southeasterly

**1. Introduction** 

