**4. Specific challenges of climate change in South and Eastern Europe**

The impact of climate change promises to be more visible in southern part of the region because there is such a great diversity of plants and animals. Every species has unique requirements for persistence. This means that species will respond differently to the same climatic change. The range of a species is determined by external conditions like temperature, but also by conditions like interactions with other species.

Thus, native species will face novel environmental conditions – and will have precious little time to adjust. Even if the changes in climate are gradual, it has been recognized that the changes will be steep. Species with limited ability to move will have an especially difficult time keeping pace as Chen et al. (2011) reported that the distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 11.0 meters per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 16.9 kilometres per decade. Some species may even require assistance moving to new regions.

Of greatest concern for local scientist, however, is that even with a gradual change there may be "tipping points" in the system, whereby ecological complexities interact and there is a dramatic "step change" in the system. These may include massive scale die-back of forests due to abnormal drought conditions, conversion of scrub habitat to non-native grassland with a few too frequent fires, and the scouring of watersheds, excessive erosion, and alteration of geomorphology of region's streams and rivers, with rain after catastrophic fire. Such fundamental conversion of the region's ecosystems could be abrupt and irreversible. It is not currently known where such thresholds in the system might be.

Climate Change: Wildfire Impact 15

(*Antirrhinum coulterianum*) for the endangered butterfly, Quino Checkerspot (*Euphydryas editha quino*). All plant species, except brittlebush, flat-topped buckwheat and white snapdragon showed similar sensitivities as coastal sage scrub and chaparral to altered climate conditions. These three exceptions showed higher levels of potential habitat

The CCB also used modelling for the USA-endangered Quino Checkerspot butterfly and threatened California Gnatcatcher (*Polioptila californica*) (Preston et al, 2008). Other models included associations between species and compared predictions under altered climate conditions with models that did not. The CCB found that when vegetation, shrub or host plant species were included in the animal models, potential habitat for the butterfly and songbird was significantly reduced at altered climate conditions. Such models could be used

Climate change and the pressures associated with human pressure can each lead to large changes in biodiversity. While the ecological effects of each of these stressors are increasingly being documented, the complex effects of climate change, harvesting pressure and urbanization on ecosystems remain inadequately understood. Yet such effects are likely

Exploitation of intertidal and subtidal species as well as runoff and nutrient loading into coastal waters continues to increase as a result of rapid population growth at a time when the species involved are also being subjected to large scale changes in the environment driven by global warming. It is not unreasonable to presume that harvesting can undermine the resiliency of species to climate change. For example, historic data show that body size of molluscs plays an important role in determining which species are likely to shift their geographic distributions in response to climate change (Roy et al, 2001). Yet body sizes of many intertidal species have decreased substantially over the last century as a result of human harvesting of these species. Furthermore such size declines can result in major changes in growth rates, reproductive outputs and life histories of species and can even lead to changes in the compositions of ecological communities (Roy et al, 2003). How such changes in the biology of the species involved affects their resiliency to global warming is

The South Eastern Europe must brace for change. Even without the climate changes to come, native plants and animals, and the ecosystems on which the region rely, will be severely affected in the decades ahead. Climate change will only accelerate – and perhaps dramatically – changes already afoot in natural community composition and distribution. Some species may disappear as their habitat shifts to outside of the region; the range of others may expand to include the region. Species with limited dispersal ability will be most likely tested. Some of region's native species may be wholly reliant on how the region

The most important strategy to increase the likelihood of natural systems to adapt to the new climate regime is to maintain the connectivity between conservation reserve networks of core area representing the diversity of communities in the region for ecological cohesion

A favourable condition for biodiversity and ecosystems in the year to come is continued functionality of ecosystem processes; this would "save the evolutionary stage" and so

to be extremely important in regions such as southern part of South East Europe.

still poorly understood but the potential for feedback effects certainly exists.

community mobilizes to ease them through the transitions to come.

remaining at elevated temperatures, particularly flat-topped buckwheat.

to predict distribution changes with climate change.

**5. Conclusion** 

of the landscape.

### **4.1 Climate change and forest ecosystem**

In South East Europe, as in many other places in the world, the distribution of plant and animal populations will not be able to suddenly shift northward or to higher elevations because the potential habitat has been claimed by development, invaded by non-native species, or has unsuitable soils or other physical limitations (Parmesan, 2006).

Extended drought can stress individual trees, increase their susceptibility to insect attack, and result in widespread forest decline. Plant species respond differently and entire species may die off when drought occurs in an area that already has predictable seasonal droughts. Stressed trees have less resistance to insects, such as bark beetles. More indirectly, warmer winter temperatures as predicted for the region's future can increase insect survival and population levels. Drought and abnormally warm years that began in the 1980s have resulted in unprecedented pest outbreaks and tree dieback in southern part of the region (Logan et al, 2003).

Extended drought can also increase the severity of wildfires when they are ignited. The 2003 and 2007 wildfire events in South East Europe were shaped by extended drought that reduced fuel moisture of trees, the sea borned winds and high temperatures, and the ignition in shrubs – maquis type of vegetation that burned "uphill" into the forests.

Forests may not regenerate to historical species composition, when wildfires burn with higher intensity than tree species are adapted to. For example Franklin et al. (2006) surveyed areas in Cuyamaca Rancho State Park, USA, during the first two post-fire growing seasons following the Cedar Fire, and found that most conifers were killed by the high-intensity fire and that pine seedlings have not re-established. Oaks and ceanothus species now dominate the forest.

Forest-dependent fish and wildlife species may be lost in the indirect effects of climate change, drought, and wildfire. For example the Sweetwater Creek State park native trout and stickleback populations in Atlanta were totally eliminated in the Cedar Fire in 2003, and the last native trout population is threatened in Pauma Creek by sediments filling pools (after wildfires and rainstorms).

To understand the impact of climate change particular focus has to be given to shrubland communities that support a diversity of sensitive plant and animal species in the region. To begin to understand how changing climate conditions might affect these natural communities, a climate sensitivity analyses for coastal sage scrub and maquis vegetation and for plant and animal species found in these shrublands is needed (Preston et al, 2008).

To assess sensitivity of species and vegetation types to climate, the model that uses varied temperature and precipitation compared with current climate conditions could be employed. These values fall within the range of various climate forecasts for the region, although the emerging consensus is that the region will become more arid (IPPC, 2007). In response to increasing temperature and reduced precipitation, each vegetation type moves to higher elevations where current conditions are cooler and there is greater precipitation compared with locations where these shrublands / maquis vegetation occur.

In Europe some work was done on modelling habitat shifts due to climate change, however, the most conclusive one took place in the USA. For example analyses was conducted for five different coastal sage scrub shrub species in the USA; California sagebrush (*Artemisia californica*), brittlebush (*Encelia farinos*), flat-topped buckwheat (*Eriogonum fasciculatum*), laurel sumac (*Malosma laurina*), and white sage (*Salvia apiana*). The model developed by The Center for Conservation Biology (CCB) at the University of California, Riverside also modelled two annual host plants, California plantain (*Plantago erecta*) and white snapdragon

In South East Europe, as in many other places in the world, the distribution of plant and animal populations will not be able to suddenly shift northward or to higher elevations because the potential habitat has been claimed by development, invaded by non-native

Extended drought can stress individual trees, increase their susceptibility to insect attack, and result in widespread forest decline. Plant species respond differently and entire species may die off when drought occurs in an area that already has predictable seasonal droughts. Stressed trees have less resistance to insects, such as bark beetles. More indirectly, warmer winter temperatures as predicted for the region's future can increase insect survival and population levels. Drought and abnormally warm years that began in the 1980s have resulted in unprecedented pest outbreaks and tree dieback in southern part of the region

Extended drought can also increase the severity of wildfires when they are ignited. The 2003 and 2007 wildfire events in South East Europe were shaped by extended drought that reduced fuel moisture of trees, the sea borned winds and high temperatures, and the

Forests may not regenerate to historical species composition, when wildfires burn with higher intensity than tree species are adapted to. For example Franklin et al. (2006) surveyed areas in Cuyamaca Rancho State Park, USA, during the first two post-fire growing seasons following the Cedar Fire, and found that most conifers were killed by the high-intensity fire and that pine seedlings have not re-established. Oaks and ceanothus species now dominate

Forest-dependent fish and wildlife species may be lost in the indirect effects of climate change, drought, and wildfire. For example the Sweetwater Creek State park native trout and stickleback populations in Atlanta were totally eliminated in the Cedar Fire in 2003, and the last native trout population is threatened in Pauma Creek by sediments filling pools

To understand the impact of climate change particular focus has to be given to shrubland communities that support a diversity of sensitive plant and animal species in the region. To begin to understand how changing climate conditions might affect these natural communities, a climate sensitivity analyses for coastal sage scrub and maquis vegetation and for plant and animal species found in these shrublands is needed (Preston et al, 2008). To assess sensitivity of species and vegetation types to climate, the model that uses varied temperature and precipitation compared with current climate conditions could be employed. These values fall within the range of various climate forecasts for the region, although the emerging consensus is that the region will become more arid (IPPC, 2007). In response to increasing temperature and reduced precipitation, each vegetation type moves to higher elevations where current conditions are cooler and there is greater precipitation

In Europe some work was done on modelling habitat shifts due to climate change, however, the most conclusive one took place in the USA. For example analyses was conducted for five different coastal sage scrub shrub species in the USA; California sagebrush (*Artemisia californica*), brittlebush (*Encelia farinos*), flat-topped buckwheat (*Eriogonum fasciculatum*), laurel sumac (*Malosma laurina*), and white sage (*Salvia apiana*). The model developed by The Center for Conservation Biology (CCB) at the University of California, Riverside also modelled two annual host plants, California plantain (*Plantago erecta*) and white snapdragon

compared with locations where these shrublands / maquis vegetation occur.

ignition in shrubs – maquis type of vegetation that burned "uphill" into the forests.

species, or has unsuitable soils or other physical limitations (Parmesan, 2006).

**4.1 Climate change and forest ecosystem** 

(Logan et al, 2003).

the forest.

(after wildfires and rainstorms).

(*Antirrhinum coulterianum*) for the endangered butterfly, Quino Checkerspot (*Euphydryas editha quino*). All plant species, except brittlebush, flat-topped buckwheat and white snapdragon showed similar sensitivities as coastal sage scrub and chaparral to altered climate conditions. These three exceptions showed higher levels of potential habitat remaining at elevated temperatures, particularly flat-topped buckwheat.

The CCB also used modelling for the USA-endangered Quino Checkerspot butterfly and threatened California Gnatcatcher (*Polioptila californica*) (Preston et al, 2008). Other models included associations between species and compared predictions under altered climate conditions with models that did not. The CCB found that when vegetation, shrub or host plant species were included in the animal models, potential habitat for the butterfly and songbird was significantly reduced at altered climate conditions. Such models could be used to predict distribution changes with climate change.

Climate change and the pressures associated with human pressure can each lead to large changes in biodiversity. While the ecological effects of each of these stressors are increasingly being documented, the complex effects of climate change, harvesting pressure and urbanization on ecosystems remain inadequately understood. Yet such effects are likely to be extremely important in regions such as southern part of South East Europe.

Exploitation of intertidal and subtidal species as well as runoff and nutrient loading into coastal waters continues to increase as a result of rapid population growth at a time when the species involved are also being subjected to large scale changes in the environment driven by global warming. It is not unreasonable to presume that harvesting can undermine the resiliency of species to climate change. For example, historic data show that body size of molluscs plays an important role in determining which species are likely to shift their geographic distributions in response to climate change (Roy et al, 2001). Yet body sizes of many intertidal species have decreased substantially over the last century as a result of human harvesting of these species. Furthermore such size declines can result in major changes in growth rates, reproductive outputs and life histories of species and can even lead to changes in the compositions of ecological communities (Roy et al, 2003). How such changes in the biology of the species involved affects their resiliency to global warming is still poorly understood but the potential for feedback effects certainly exists.

#### **5. Conclusion**

The South Eastern Europe must brace for change. Even without the climate changes to come, native plants and animals, and the ecosystems on which the region rely, will be severely affected in the decades ahead. Climate change will only accelerate – and perhaps dramatically – changes already afoot in natural community composition and distribution. Some species may disappear as their habitat shifts to outside of the region; the range of others may expand to include the region. Species with limited dispersal ability will be most likely tested. Some of region's native species may be wholly reliant on how the region community mobilizes to ease them through the transitions to come.

The most important strategy to increase the likelihood of natural systems to adapt to the new climate regime is to maintain the connectivity between conservation reserve networks of core area representing the diversity of communities in the region for ecological cohesion of the landscape.

A favourable condition for biodiversity and ecosystems in the year to come is continued functionality of ecosystem processes; this would "save the evolutionary stage" and so

Climate Change: Wildfire Impact 17

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reconstructed from charcoal deposited in the Santa Barbara Basin, *California* 

perhaps allow the greatest complement of native species to persist. While the current configuration and composition of general vegetation communities will surely be different, it is desirable the communities to be characterized predominantly by species native to the region.

Forest wildfire in the South East Europe is strongly influenced by spring and summer temperatures and by cumulative precipitation. The effect of temperature on wildfire risks is related to the timing of spring, and increases with latitude and elevation. The greatest effects of higher temperatures on forest wildfire in recent decades have been seen in the southern countries - Croatia, Greece, Italy- and a handful of fire seasons account for the majority of large forest wildfires. A seasonal climate forecast for spring and summer temperatures would thus be of value in anticipating the severity and expense of the forest wildfire season in much of the South East Europe, and would be of particular value in Albania, Bosnia, Croatia.
