**Abstract**

Mono Transboundary Biosphere Reserve (MTBR) is rich in biodiversity associated with different multi-functional ecosystems in the Dahomey-Gap corridor in the southern border between Benin and Togo. The reserve has been facing many anthropogenic pressures since few years including the uncontrolled exploitation of forest resources, and fragmentation of habitats and permanent search for arable land. Thus, it becomes important to develop prospective analysis approaches in order to provide specific insights for a balanced biodiversity. This study aims to provide scientific evidence to better understand and project future changes in LULC in the MTBR at different spatial and temporal scales. Changes in LULC were used to map the MTBR in 1986, 2000, and 2015 and to predict the LULC in the future up to 2070 using Markovian chain analysis. During 1986–2000, urban agglomeration/bare soil (8.79 ha/year) increased, whereas the natural vegetation cover increased during the period 2000–2015, particularly mangroves (9.81 ha/year). Assuming the dynamic observed, the mangroves will increase by 2070 (6% of its cover). However, an important increase is also expected for farmland (13% of its cover). It is, therefore, important to strengthen the actions and strategies around and within the MTBR for sustainable management of biological resources.

**Keywords:** Dahomey gap, future scenarios, land use/land cover, prospective analysis, protected area
