**4. Discussion**

Main findings from this study were that natural vegetation (closed forest formation, mangrove forest, flooded savanna of Mitragyna, savannas on drained soil, swamp grassland) converted into agricultural and nonvegetated areas (mosaic of crops and fallows, urban agglomeration/bare soil, and plantations). These changes in LULC confirmed the dynamic of Mono Transboundary Biosphere Reserve [11, 32, 33].

The Mono Transboundary Biosphere Reserve (MTBR) holds an important wetland protected by the Ramsar convention. Before the year 2000, only natural vegetation (forest and floodplain savannas of *Mitragyna inermis*) was observed to be degraded, while after the year 2000, urban agglomeration/bare soil was mainly degraded, when important reconstitution was observed for natural vegetation (forests, savannas on drained soil, and mangroves). The year 2000 was marked by the ratification of the Ramsar convention by Benin. In the case of Togo, the Ramsar convention was ratified since 1995. Prior to this period, there was no restriction on the use of the reserve resources that were subject to important overexploitation, as confirmed by the exceptional increase of urban agglomeration/bare soil in the period 1986–2000. Later in 2000, several project activities followed the ratification of the Ramsar convention that contributed to the restoration of the natural vegetation, mainly the mangroves.

The MTBR is the only place in Dahomey Gap where mangroves remain natural. The mangroves provided ecosystem services including support for aquaculture and fishery activities, salt extraction, fuelwood, and agriculture [34–36]. Mangroves also provide ecological, socioeconomic, and climate regulation roles [37–39]. Thus, human beings remain the main beneficiaries in terms of self-consumption and the improvement of their income. The multiple ecosystem goods and services provided by the mangroves are among the main reason for the designation of the MTBR in 2017. This reserve is sustaining the conservation of mangroves as its cover had significantly increased in the period 2000–2015.

The future scenarios predict an important loss of natural vegetation (forests and floodplain savannas of *Mitragyna inermis*) and a significant increase in urban agglomeration/bare soil, assuming the dynamic recorded in the first period (1986–2000). In the second period, natural vegetation, mainly mangroves, will increase, while important loss will be observed for urban agglomeration/bare soil. Based on the progress observed after the year 2000 in the restoration of the natural vegetation, it is hopefully expected that the dynamic observed in the period 2000–2015 will prevail in the future. Moreover, the recent designation of MTBR as UNESCO biodiversity reserve confirms the need to sustain the conservation of this important biodiversity.

More actions including awareness-raising and sustainable management are needed to reduce the cover of farmland that will progress by 2070, assuming the dynamic of the period 2000–2015. The management of the reserve must be participatory based on gender approach in order to prevent the population from illegally re-introduction in the reserve. The successful management of the reserve also requires local interventions coordinated across ecologically appropriate spatial scales, and best guided by frequent and synoptic sampling and monitoring through the results of multidisciplinary research [40, 41].

The Markovian model used to predict the dynamic of LULC is useful for exploratory analysis and for depicting contrasting scenarios [41]. The model is not spatially explicit and assumes homogeneity of the transition probabilities over time *How Far the Mono Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Protects Biodiversity in the Dahomey-Gap… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.112884*

[41, 42]. Thus, spatially explicit model should be used in future on changes in LULC analysis to understand the LULC dynamics locations and pathways in the MTBR. Future similar studies should take into account the limits observed in the model used in this study.

### **5. Conclusion**

The Mono Transboundary Biosphere Reserve (MTBR) has contributed to the restoration of natural vegetation since the year 2000, that is, characterized by the ratification of Ramsar convention by Benin and Togo with the aims of the conservation and sustainable use of wetlands. The current study was designed to assess LULC dynamics from 1986 to 2015 and to predict future scenarios in the Mono Transboundary Biosphere Reserve (MTBR). The analysis of the dynamics of change in LULC revealed the different processes of evolution within the landscape during the period 1986–2015. These changes mainly concern the regression of natural ecosystems such as forests and wooded savannas, whereas low-cover land occupancies (mosaics of crops/fallows and urban agglomerations/bare soil) have been gradually increasing.

Despite the changes and conversions observed during the period of this study (1986 to 2015), the area remained largely covered by natural vegetation and still has good potential for biodiversity conservation. The MTBR is the only place in Dahomey Gap where mangroves remain natural. These mangroves provided ecosystem services including support for aquaculture and fishery activities, salt extraction, fuelwood, and agriculture. These mangrove ecosystems also provide ecological, socioeconomic, and climate regulation roles, and the multiple ecosystem goods and services provided by the mangroves are among the main reason for the designation of the MTBR in 2017.

The simulation of future land use dynamics in this study is part of the need to understand the functioning of LULC in the area of the reserve. Based on the observed dynamics in the first period (1986–2000), the area of forest and floodplain savannas of *Mitragyna inermis* is expected to decrease by 3.5% and 25.5% of the area recorded in 1986 by 2070. The area of savannas on drained soil, mosaic of crops and fallows, swamp grasslands, mangroves, water, and urban agglomeration/bare soil will increase, respectively, by 8.4%, 3%, 1.3%, 0.1%, 2.4%, and 13.8% of the areas recorded in 1986 by 2070.

The future scenario predicts the conservation of the natural vegetation mainly mangroves assuming the dynamic recorded in the period 2000–2015. By describing the possible evolutions of the LULC on the basis of prospective scenarios, it becomes possible to initiate a reflection on possible adaptation strategies to adjust natural and human systems to a new environment. It is very important to strengthen the conservation of the reserve with activities that support the Ramsar convention on wetlands and monitor the implementation of the management plan of the reserve in order to reduce the cover of farmlands that are expected to increase by 2070. Thus, the MTBR will be the potentially good for the conservation of biodiversity for the future generation. Thus, more actions including awareness-raising and sustainable management are needed to reduce the cover of farmland that will progress by 2070, assuming the dynamic of the period 2000–2015. The management of the reserve must be participatory and based on a gender approach in order to prevent the population from illegally re-introduction in the reserve.
