**3.2 Changes in land use/land cover**

The proportions of the nine LULC types changed considerably from 1986 to 2015 (**Table 2**). In 1986, floodplain savanna of *Mitragyna inermis*, savannas on drained soil and mosaic of crops, and fallows were the dominant land cover types (**Table 2**; **Figure 3**). In 2000, the land cover types were dominated by agglomeration and dry savannas, whereas in 2015, savannas on drained soil and farmland were the dominant land cover types. The cover of forests and floodplain savannas of *Mitragyna inermis* decreased in the periods 1986–2000, whereas other land uses increased except farmland, which remained stable. In the period 2000–2015, the cover of floodplain


#### **Table 2.**

*Land use/land cover classes used in the analysis of change (area in ha).*

#### **Figure 3.**

*Dynamic of land use/land cover in the Mono Transboundary Biosphere Reserve from 1986 to 2015.*

savannas of *Mitragyna inermis*, swamp grassland/marshy meadow, and urban agglomeration/bare soil decreased, while the others increased except for water body that remained stable. In both periods, the cover of floodplain savannas of *Mitragyna inermis* decreased, while the cover of savannas on drained soil, mangroves, and plantations increased.

The transition matrices of the observed time periods 1986–2000 and 2000–2015 (**Table 3**) helped to derive the probability of change (**Table 4**). During the period 1986–2000, water body and savannas on drained soil showed large persistence (99.9% and 97.8% per year, respectively) as well as farmland and urban agglomeration/bare soil (96.5% and 96.0%, respectively) (**Table 3**). The forest cover converted to mangroves (0.1%), floodplain savannas of *Mitragyna inermis* (1.4%), savanna on drained soil (1.2%), swamp grassland (0.3%), plantations (0.6%), farmland (0.7%), and urban agglomeration/bare soil (1.1%). The floodplain savannas of *Mitragyna inermis* mainly regressed into savannas on drained soil (0.5%), swamp grassland (0.6%), plantations (0.6%), farmland (0.5%), urban agglomeration/bare soil (2%), and water body (0.1%). However, it progressed in forests (0.3%) and mangroves (0.2). The mangroves also regressed into floodplain savannas of *Mitragyna inermis* (1.8%), savannas on drained soil (0.3%), swamp grassland (1.8%), plantations (0.5%), farmland (0.1%), and urban agglomeration/bare soil (0.6%). However, it progressed into forest (0.9%).

In the period 2000–2015, water body had a large annual persistence (99.8%) followed by farmland (97.9%). Forest cover was regressed into mangroves (0.6%), savanna on drained soil (2.2%), floodplain savannas of *Mitragyna inermis* (1.1%), swamp grassland (0.2%), plantations (0.5%), and farmland (0.3%). Floodplain savannas of *Mitragyna inermis* were mainly regressed in savannas on drained soil (2.5%), swamp grassland (0.1%), plantations (1.7%), farmland (0.7%), and water (0.1%). However, it progressed into mangroves (0.4%) and forests (0.3%). Mangroves were regressed into savannas on drained soil (2.1%), floodplain savannas of *Mitragyna inermis* (1.5%), swamp grassland (0.2%), plantations (0.4%), farmland (1%), and urban and agglomeration/bare soil (0.2%). However, it progressed into forests (0.3%).

#### **3.3 Land use/land cover degradation or conservation rates**

During the first period, 1986–2000, the highest rate of degradation (**Table 5**) was observed for floodplain savannas of Mitragyna inermis (61,979.4 ha lost) and forests (6962.22 ha). The other LULC had increased with the highest increase for urban agglomeration/bare soil (46,977.39 ha). In the second period, 2000–2015, urban agglomeration/bare soil had a high annual rate of degradation (58,561.38 ha) in addition to floodplain savannas of Mitragyna inermis (14,849.10 ha). The other LULC had increased with the highest increase for mangroves (19,572.84 ha).

#### **3.4 Future LULC changes forecasting**

Future land cover changes will depend upon the previously observed dynamics for the time period considered (1986–2000 and 2000–2015). Based on the observed dynamics in the first period (1986–2000), the area of forest and floodplain savannas of *Mitragyna inermis* is expected to decrease by 3.5% and 25.5% of the area recorded in 1986 by 2070 (**Figure 4**). The area of savannas on drained soil, mosaic of crops and fallows, swamp grasslands, mangroves, water, and urban agglomeration/bare soil will increase respectively by 8.4%, 3%, 1.3%, 0.1%, 2.4%, and 13.8% of the areas recorded in 1986 by 2070.


*How Far the Mono Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Protects Biodiversity in the Dahomey-Gap… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.112884*


**Table 3.**

*Land use/land cover transition matrix (area in ha) for the considered time period (1986–2000–2015).*


*How Far the Mono Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Protects Biodiversity in the Dahomey-Gap… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.112884*

