**10. Conclusion**

This chapter uses a Multivariate Unobserved Component Model to determine the impact of the commodities and the financial cycle on the global business cycle. It shed light on the cyclicity of the unobserved components as a determinant of the business cycle using the filtering approach Band-Pass filter. One distinctive feature of our research is that it combines the financial and non-financial markets as the realm of economic systems to examine the cyclicity of the business cycle.

Our model produces several implications, which are discussed in the chapter. We use the maximum likelihood estimator with the Kalman filter to estimate the model. The main results show that oil has a lag impact on the fluctuation of the business cycle, it reacts as an impulsion for the crisis, compared to the gold and the global financial cycle which reacts simultaneously with the trend of the global business cycle. Our results are in accordance with the prominent literature treating the energy as an impulsion for any upswing or downswing within the cyclicity of the business cycle. Within the recent reframing of the economic system and the interconnectedness of the real and the financial spheres, the gold and the stock market are acting as hedge funds and as investment reacts simultaneously with the trend of the global business cycle. Our study might bring new features that the energy is acting as a hedge fund rather than just a consumption creating a combined business cycle with prominent expectations of their fluctuations.

*New Topics in Emerging Markets*
