**3. Empirical findings from the construction phase of road projects**

The construction phase in road projects starts when the contractor and team members are in place. Project resources are decided, and a design has been conducted. At this stage, the project environment is dynamic and incorporated with different events and accidents that have the potential to influence the project, which now runs at a high speed.

Here, the empirical study reported is based on longitudinal case studies, including seven road projects in Norway. All seven projects in the study were large in terms of time and money, and they were highly complex projects. All major projects in Norway need to pass the Ministry of Finance's quality assurance (QA) to be approved by their government for financing. Documentation from this QA includes complete uncertainty analysis and is publicly available. All road projects in this study finished their construction phase, and we evaluated them in the year 2022–2023. Case studies include document studies and interviews with experts involved in the uncertainty management of these projects. The interviewees had different roles, such as project manager and project controller. The researchers studied firsthand how uncertainties were managed in the construction phase of the projects. Uncertainties and their management were structured according to three components mentioned. We present the findings in two consecutive sections.

### **3.1 Identifying uncertainties and managing them**

Market, project organization, and project planning were the three major sources of uncertainty in seven studied projects in the construction phase. **Table 1** shows the important uncertainties in the early phase of these seven projects. The data are collected from the project's quality assurance reports or uncertainty cost analysis reports. **Table 1** contains a mixture of uncertainties, which are referred to as "factor uncertainty" that affect all or parts of the project, for example, a market that is unforeseen in relation to the level of detail, the project organization/lack of access


#### **Table 1.**

*Top five uncertainties in the early phase of the projects.*

to competent workforce, errors in design and poor engineering solutions, nature/ weather conditions, unforeseen ground conditions, new standards and norms or laws and regulations, construction time, and geology and geotechnics.

#### *Managing Uncertainty in the Construction Phase of Road Projects DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.113042*

Uncertainties in **Table 1** pertain to cost-related elements such as the rig and tunnel operation, as well as road operations. Additionally, this encompasses unpredictable circumstances characterized by events of low probability with high impact, referred to as "force majeure." In such instances, neither the owner nor the contractor can be held accountable for the occurrence of these conditions. Still, the consequences must be managed.

Market uncertainty often includes several considerations, which means that it can be complicated to assess. One way of looking at that uncertainty is to look at the difference between two different offers as a signal of how much market uncertainty there is in the offers, that is, if the lowest bidder prices the bridge at 950 million and the highest bidder prices the same bridge at 1050 million, the market uncertainty is often seen as 100 million. We believe that this initial assessment is too simple. Many different uncertainties, such as poor ground conditions, insurance requirements, and other factors can cause the latter bidder to assess differently and end up with a higher sum than the first.

**Table 2** shows the comparison of uncertainties in the early phase of the seven projects with the construction phase. The uncertainties in the right column are based on interviews with the project owner and project managers from the seven case projects consisting of not only the usual uncertainties, such as the market, but also some more project-specific uncertainties, such as the replacement of bolts on project number 4. It is interesting to observe the difference among uncertainties in the early phase and the construction phase. When construction begins, the essence of uncertainties is different from the early phase. Projects face other unexpected events and uncertainties during the construction phase. In the dynamic and high pace of execution phase, project management must have strategies for tackling uncertainties that are unexpected or not identified in the early phase.

In one of the projects, the project manager emphasized that all team members should have enough competency. However, when observing the contractor's performance across two different teams involved in separate sub-projects, variations became evident. In one project, the contractor demonstrated a highly proficient understanding of the overall scope, resulting in excellent performance. Conversely, in the other project, their lack of competence hindered their ability to deliver a satisfactory outcome.

Creating a conducive working environment and establishing a robust communication platform within a project organization is vital for effective uncertainty management. "*We had good communication with the contractor, which resulted in saving money for both of us (opportunity) and it led to a win-win situation*." This situation was a bonus scheme, which was suggested to the contractor for completing part of the road. This completion of the work led to better and smoother operation and maintenance of the road, which has many benefits for the project owner too. This benefit was estimated to be approximately \$1 million.

Another valuable suggestion put forth was the implementation of systematic registering of uncertainties, which involves continuous monitoring of uncertainties and aids in preventing redundant registrations leading to inefficiencies.

Furthermore, road projects should conduct comprehensive feasibility studies and scenario plans to anticipate changes in regulations, funding availability, and market conditions because of strategic uncertainties.

One of the uncertainties that could challenge projects was related to designing irrational procedures for uncertainty management. This weakness reduces our ability to identify uncertainties during the construction phase. If the uncertainties were considered in the planning phase, the result could be much better. For example, in one


#### **Table 2.**

*Top uncertainties in the early and the construction phase.*

*Managing Uncertainty in the Construction Phase of Road Projects DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.113042*

of the projects, the project manager said: "*There was little planning and pre-evaluation for tunneling done before the project started, and after beginning construction, unexpected things happened*".

The project manager in one of the projects said: "*Market is one of the important uncertainties, and after contracting to some extent, it is solved. Regulation and changes in them are other uncertainties which affect the project."* Monitoring market trends regularly and maintaining solid relationships with stakeholders and regulatory bodies are helpful. Lastly, proactive engagement with stakeholders, including local communities and environmental organizations, is essential for contextual uncertainties. By incorporating stakeholders' perspectives, addressing their concerns, and incorporating their feedback into decision-making, road construction projects can reduce conflicts and improve their resilience. Using this comprehensive approach, road projects can effectively manage uncertainties.

### **3.2 Challenges and enablers toward uncertainty management**

In this section, we presented and explored the challenges involved in uncertainty management. Solutions for these challenges can serve as enablers for uncertainty management in the context of road construction projects. The identified challenges are overemphasizing risk over opportunity management, lack of systematic approach in uncertainty management, and shortage of systematic training on uncertainty management.

#### *3.2.1 Emphasizing risk over opportunity*

In the process component, studied road projects primarily focus on risk management rather than opportunities. For example, in one of the projects, the number of risks and opportunities found in the risk register had the pattern shown in **Table 3**.

The number of risks presented in **Table 3** surpasses the number of opportunities, highlighting the significant focus on risk management in projects. **Table 4** provides an overview of the total risks and opportunities observed in the construction phase of the seven cases.


#### **Table 3.**

*Number of identified risks and opportunities in one of the projects.*


#### **Table 4.**

*Comparison of project risk versus opportunity focus.*

Data for the projects are derived from reports provided at varying intervals, such as monthly, quarterly, biannually, and yearly. Data for project 7 are not available in **Table 4** because of incomplete documentation.

In every study conducted, there was a consistent pattern of risk management taking precedence over managing opportunities. Unfortunately, this tendency persists in six projects. Addressing opportunities becomes increasingly difficult during the implementation phase because plans are decided, and in the middle of construction, identifying opportunities is difficult. The only project in which they exploited opportunities had a different form of contract and procurement strategy. The contract and procurement strategy supported opportunities in this project.

In one of the projects, the project manager mentioned: *"Due to the lack of a culture that promoted the identification of uncertainties and the pursuit of opportunities at a higher organizational level, the project ended up predominantly prioritizing risk management*.*"*

#### *3.2.2 To benefit from the systematic approach*

Three projects from the seven in the study have a consistent strategy for managing uncertainty. They engage in a continuous process of collecting information, identifying uncertainties, implementing measures, and monitoring the uncertainties. Additionally, the project's unpredictability is reported monthly.

The case studies demonstrate varying approaches to uncertainty management. While some projects explicitly incorporate the uncertainty register into their uncertainty management practices, other projects update the register minimally after construction commences. According to the project manager's statements in the interview:

*"I think the value of systematic risk registration is necessary for achieving better and more consistent performance. Fostering transparency and promoting effective communication among all involved parties could improve uncertainty management in projects."*

Moreover, some projects actively pursue opportunities to generate cost savings, whereas others use the register primarily to monitor the early phase identified uncertainties. Overall, each project's uncertainty register identifies more threats than opportunities. Other observed patterns in seven projects were a lack of attention to measures for identified uncertainties and not dedicating sufficient time to develop risk reduction measures. A systematic approach contributes to regularly defining and updating measures during the project's execution phase. Intriguingly, the frequency of uncertainty analysis varied significantly among projects, with some executing it monthly, others three or four times a year, and still others every 6 months. This partly demonstrates a systematic approach to uncertainty management.

Some of the projects experienced challenges in working with the risk registering tool. In some cases, some uncertainties were deleted, which affected the usage of the system for risk registration. There was no regular meeting to follow up on the uncertainty management system. One of the project managers interviewed said: "*To small extent projects logged uncertainties and measures, which they adopt for managing uncertainties. Such logs could be very helpful and could have a learning effect."*

*The quote from the owner was: "What has been truly fascinating is that during our prolonged discussions on relationships, they frequently evolved into discussions*  *Managing Uncertainty in the Construction Phase of Road Projects DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.113042*

> *about opportunities. This has not only helped us in terms of cost reduction but has also allowed the contractor to mitigate implementation risks and optimize resource utilization, resulting in significant cost savings and greater profitability."*

#### *3.2.3 Systematic training on uncertainty management*

The analysis of seven road construction projects revealed a lack of systematic training for those responsible for managing uncertainty. Numerous respondents mentioned initial difficulties and learning the tools and techniques through trial and error. For instance, a project controller in one of the projects said*: "We had some courses at the beginning of the career for the job position, but we did not have any* training *for uncertainty management, and we learned it during the project."* Despite confronting numerous uncertainties in their daily work, it remained unclear to what extent they utilized a systematic approach to uncertainty management. This raised the question of why businesses should invest considerable time and resources in uncertainty analysis if the project teams do not directly benefit from it. Some projects were more systematic than others in their approach to uncertainty management. If the frequency of analysis meetings increases and is supported by efficient tools, we anticipate that the outcomes will be more satisfying and in line with expectations. This will come from an increased focus on the right things and the training effect of doing it more often.
