**4. Discussion**

This is not the first study of uncertainty in major Norwegian projects. Market, project organization, and project planning were the three major sources of uncertainty in seven studied projects in the construction phase, aligned with previous studies [14, 31]. As a reference, we note the following results: The most frequent uncertainties in the pre-project phase projects are organizational factors, market conditions, and technical conditions [31]. Project organization, market conditions, project planning and control, and technical conditions are the most frequent uncertainties [14].

Uncertainties arising from market conditions, project organization, and project planning have consistently been recognized as critical factors that can significantly impact project outcomes. Market uncertainties, such as changes in demand, price changes, competition, or economic conditions, pose challenges in predicting project success and may require adaptive strategies. Project organization uncertainties refer to factors related to the structure, roles, and dynamics of the project team, which can influence communication, decision-making, and coordination. Lastly, project planning uncertainties encompass risks associated with project scope, scheduling, resource allocation, and other planning aspects. By acknowledging the importance of these three sources of uncertainty, project managers and stakeholders can proactively identify and address potential challenges, leading to more effective risk management and improved project performance.

All the uncertainties mentioned can be categorized into operational, strategic, and contextual. To proficiently address operational, strategic, and contextual uncertainties, it would be helpful for road projects to embrace a comprehensive and integrated approach. This strategy requires forethought, effective communication, adaptability, and follow-up meetings with the participation of key people in the project team.

Comprehensive risk assessments and review plans should be conducted for operational uncertainties to mitigate potential challenges in day-to-day project activities. This includes conducting site investigations, utilizing reliable apparatus and technology, and communicating with subcontractors and suppliers openly.

Early identification of the mentioned challenges (overemphasizing risk over opportunity management, lack of systematic approach, and shortage of systematic training) in projects contributes to improving the process of uncertainty management, and thus, enhancing cost performance. By implementing effective planning and employing appropriate measures to address risks and capitalize on opportunities, project teams can work toward achieving project objectives more successfully.

In the process component, studied road projects primarily focus on risk management rather than opportunities. This pattern is in line with findings in previous studies [8, 32]. Risks are often more apparent and urgent to address because they are associated with negative outcomes, such as cost overrun and potential loss to the project. Risks are seen as more tangible and predictable, whereas opportunities require an innovative approach to identify them. Road projects also operate within tight budgets and timelines, which prioritize risk mitigation for project success. Opportunities may be perceived as adding complexity or potential delays. However, road projects must recognize and embrace opportunities for innovation and cost savings to achieve improved outcomes. Balancing risk and opportunity management can lead to enhanced stakeholder value and overall project success.

Noticing risks more than opportunities becomes particularly important when a project encounters unforeseen costs and requires cost reductions. While reduction lists and optimizations may assist in lowering expenses, they may not be sufficient to fully offset the costs incurred. In addition, because of the tight schedule and budget, there is often a low flexibility for identifying and spending time exploring opportunities in the execution phase. Failure to recognize and utilize opportunities early in projects can result in significant consequences and expensive changes later in the project's life cycle.

To improve the identification of uncertainties, project teams must recognize the significance of actively pursuing and embracing opportunities throughout the project [6]. This shift in attitude requires nurturing a culture of proactive opportunity identification and evaluation at different levels of the organization. Implementing structured processes and frameworks for opportunity management, promoting collaboration and brainstorming sessions to uncover hidden possibilities, and providing training and guidance on identifying and using opportunities are all contributing to opportunity management [8]. Improving opportunity management and effective risk management projects can maximize their success and efficiency.

The lack of a systematic approach to uncertainty management is another challenge in uncertainty management. One of the main obstacles faced in implementing a systematic approach to uncertainty management relates to the low priority given to uncertainty management processes in projects by top management, resulting in its perceived lack of importance. In some cases, there is a technical challenge wherein existing tools fail to adequately assess the impact of specific risks on project costs when uncertainties are addressed. Understanding this level of influence (uncertainty on costs) could provide valuable insights for project management in monitoring and serve as a valuable learning experience for future endeavors. Furthermore, granting access to tools for all project members enables them to proactively register risks and identify potential opportunities on a daily basis. One of the key takeaways from

a particular project was the integration of uncertainty management into everyday project practices and other related activities.

As the project progresses and new uncertainties emerge, the uncertainty plans and documents should be updated regularly. This ensures that the approach remains effective and pertinent throughout the lifecycle of the project. Feedback from project team members, stakeholders, and relevant industry experts should be incorporated to refine and adapt the plans and risk registers to changing conditions.

A shortage of systematic training was obvious in seven projects. To address the lack of systematic training in uncertainty management, businesses should implement long-term training programs that cover multiple aspects of uncertainty management, foster a culture of continuous learning by encouraging ongoing professional development instead of a one-time event, and provide mentorship and support by connecting experienced professionals with less experienced team members. The focus should also be on having approximately the same goals and philosophies with uncertainty management across the projects so that there is continuity in the uncertainty work.

The level of training should be suitable for each role of the project teams to be effective. An increased focus on the transfer of experience will provide increased competence within the organization and make the project participants better equipped to find and implement the right measures to deal with uncertainties. By investing in these measures, businesses can increase the capabilities of their project teams, improve project outcomes, and boost the effectiveness of uncertainty analysis.

A comprehensive framework for uncertainty management needs three main components, as seen in **Figure 4**. This framework is a suggested conceptual framework that covers and fulfills the challenges and provides solutions (enablers) for uncertainty management.

**Figure 4** is a conceptual model for achieving comprehensive uncertainty management, and it presents three components that need to work together. These suggestions depend on project size and complexity. With the increasing complexity and size of the

**Figure 4.** *The conceptual framework for comprehensive uncertainty management.* projects, the suggestions are even more important. In large and complex projects, a comprehensive framework for uncertainty management is recommended. We suggest improvements for all three necessary components of the framework.

The human and organization component covers three suggested improvement areas, such as systematic training, risk manager role, and knowledge sharing. The analysis uncovered a lack of systematic training for uncertainty management within the projects, highlighting the necessity for enhanced training initiatives and knowledge dissemination across the entire project organization. In large and complex projects, having a dedicated role as a risk manager improves coordination and communication in the uncertainty management process. This results in a more effective process. In systematic training, all the people who are involved in the uncertainty management process should have training courses regularly. When tools and processes are updated, they should have new training sessions. Besides, all new staff involved in uncertainty management should have training courses to become familiar with the main concepts of uncertainty management.

In the process components, meeting schedules, quality of risk registering, and documentation quality should be improved. Meeting schedules should include discussions on risks and opportunities. Uncertainty management meetings in projects should mirror the project size. Cost analyses and updating the risk register are typically done every 6 months in large, complex projects, and an update of the analysis of time is recommended to be done at least annually. These updates help leadership at an organizational level have a better understanding of project-level problems and obstacles during the execution process.

Tools and techniques component include a proper cost estimating tool, which is a tool for simulating time uncertainty and risk with an uncertainty/risk matrix. These tools should be an integrated part of the project reporting systems for each large complex project. The tools in use should be checked by experts and improved, if necessary, and it should be ensured that the quality of the reports is high and that the tool is user-friendly. The quality check could be conducted by project managers or personnel with enough experience in technical subjects. Conducting monthly uncertainty management activities allows the project team to consistently and systematically identify and address uncertainties. Although project team members engage in a form of uncertainty management in their daily work, formalizing this process in a systematic manner can further enhance project outcomes. The uncertainty register needs to be updated every year to remain relevant at an operational level. The risk management team needs to have a monthly focus on the top ten risks and opportunities.
