**2. Uncertainty management in large road projects**

Uncertainty is an inherent aspect of everyday life, influencing our perception of situations as either opportunities or risks. This perception greatly impacts our understanding of projects and operations, allowing us to take necessary precautions to mitigate risks associated with cost, time, and project quality. Successful projects must carefully consider the interplay between cost, time, and quality, often referred to as the "iron triangle" [18]. Uncertainties stemming from various sources have direct consequences on project cost, time, and quality, influencing decision-making and daily choices. By studying uncertainty management, we not only gain a better understanding of its impact but also acquire valuable insights into how to effectively navigate and manage uncertainties in project environments.

Uncertainty origins and drivers could be categorized into operational, strategic, and contextual risks [19]. Different drivers will occur and vary over a project's

#### **Figure 1.**

*Operational, strategic, and contextual risk over project phases [19].*

construction phase depending on the uncertainty management strategies and the context in which the project is executed [19], as depicted in **Figure 1**. Most of the time, risk management is conducted by project managers in the pre-project and planning phases and is not followed in the construction phase. By getting more information and more analysis, the level of risk is reduced. In the execution phase, all three categories of risk are at high levels, as shown in **Figure 1**. After finishing construction, the level of risk is reduced through commissioning and closeout.

Operational uncertainties related to the project design and construction are managed by the project team. Uncertainties with strategic origins are businesslevel uncertainties handled by the owner or mother organization and are out of the project manager's control. Uncertainties with contextual origins are conditions external to the project, which may have an impact on its process and results, such as war and events with global effects on the whole supply chain [6] (p. 48) [8] (p. 133). During construction, certain risks may arise, which are difficult to anticipate before project initiation. Lack of competent team members, accidents, unexpected things in ground conditions, or changes in regulations could be some examples of such risks.

To effectively manage uncertainties with different origins, project managers need to have a process supported by suitable tools and expert people. Simister [20] developed a process for uncertainty management based on international standards and guidelines from professional institutions. The process is illustrated in **Figure 2**.

The process of uncertainty management includes identifying, registering, evaluating, and treating uncertainties. The three important components studied in the literature [8] for uncertainty management are as follows:

a.Human and organization

#### b.The process

c.Tools and techniques

In this section, we explain each of these components separately.

*Managing Uncertainty in the Construction Phase of Road Projects DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.113042*

**Figure 2.** *Process for risk management according to Simister [20].*

#### **2.1 Human and organization in uncertainty management**

The "human and organization" component incorporates a variety of professions, skills, and roles, including civil engineers, construction employees, project managers, and stakeholders. Effective uncertainty management relies on the critical elements of collaboration, coordination, and the fulfillment of different duties.

Regarding the human and organization component, risk responsibility and ownership have been emphasized as crucial factors [8, 21]. Individuals within project teams need to take ownership of the risk management processes and be accountable for their respective roles. Workforce competency is another key criterion [7, 22]. A team of individuals who possess the necessary competence and skills plays a crucial role in facilitating successful decision-making and problem-solving, particularly when confronted with unknown circumstances. The clear definition of team members' roles [6, 23, 24], effective communication [24, 25], and a supportive organizational culture [26, 27] are additional criteria that contribute to the overall effectiveness of uncertainty management.

#### **2.2 Uncertainty management's process**

The process component plays a vital role in uncertainty management, encompassing phases, such as initial planning and risk identification, risk analysis, mitigation strategies, and ongoing monitoring. Each stage of the process is interdependent, ensuring that all uncertainties are effectively addressed and mitigated.

Johansen [28] suggested a 9-step uncertainty management process for identifying, analyzing, and following up project uncertainty as illustrated in **Figure 3**.

Steps 1 and 2 are for preparing the process, Steps 3–7 are for group processes (workshops) for identifying, analyzing, and developing measures for exploiting or controlling the uncertainty, and the final steps, Steps 8–9, are for following up the uncertainty during the project life cycle. Typically, these steps are done in a risk register with a matrix consisting of opportunities and risks with a follow-up function.

**Figure 3.** *Practical uncertainty management—9-step framework [28].*

Formal and informal meetings have the potential to impact and facilitate the uncertainty management process. Formal meetings are pre-scheduled meetings in which people's role is defined, and project teams with various disciplines gather and conduct an uncertainty analysis session (with an external facilitator) held every month or every 6 months. These formal meetings could be project sessions in which problems and events during projects are discussed, or they could be workshops for identifying uncertainties in the projects. Informal meetings are meetings without preplan, such as coffee time, lunchtime meetings, or meetings in the workplace corridors [8, 29].

In the process of managing uncertainty, it is important to identify and plan for harvesting opportunities. Earlier, the focus was only on risks and threats. In recent years, the prevalent trend in risk management has shifted significantly, with a greater emphasis now placed on identifying and capitalizing on opportunities. Standardization contributes to the degree to which uncertainty management is structured and systematically followed, ensuring that all projects adhere to the same set of procedures and guidelines.

Many of these subjects that we mentioned for the uncertainty management process, such as formal or informal meetings, equal consideration for risk and opportunity, and others, originated from organizational culture. Leadership and their support play an important role. In terms of the process component, equal consideration for risk and opportunity has been identified as a crucial criterion [6]. This ensures that potential risks and opportunities are adequately assessed and addressed throughout the project lifecycle. The process should be user-friendly and simple for project teams to implement and use in the daily management of the project. Adequate documentation is essential for effective uncertainty management [7] because it facilitates knowledge sharing and provides a reference for future decision-making. Collaboration and information exchange among project stakeholders also play a vital role in the uncertainty management process [24].

#### **2.3 Tools and techniques in uncertainty management**

The "tools and techniques" component involves analytical and visualization methods and techniques for project uncertainty identification, analysis, and management.

#### *Managing Uncertainty in the Construction Phase of Road Projects DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.113042*

Proper utilization of suitable tools and techniques enhances decision-making, communication, and overall project outcomes. The "tools and techniques" component requires careful consideration as well. The complexity or simplicity of the tools and techniques utilized should match the project requirements [21]. Precision is another criterion, with the need to select tools and techniques that provide accurate and reliable results [21]. The capability of visualization and documentation is also important for effective uncertainty management [8, 30].

By incorporating these criteria, stakeholders can establish a comprehensive approach to uncertainty management, ensuring the successful completion of projects while minimizing the impact of uncertainties. The cited references provide further insights into the importance of each component and serve as valuable resources for understanding and implementing effective uncertainty management practices. Additionally, the construction phase of a project is a critical stage wherein project contractors and team members are defined and resources are allocated.

The theoretical foundation presented above makes up a useful base of concepts and principles. To understand the uncertainty management practices and improve their performance in the construction phase, we turn to empirical data from real projects.
