**2. Methodology**

#### **2.1 Case study**

Myanmar is located in South East Asia (**Figure 1**). Its land size is approximately 678,500 km2 and it has an estimated population of 42.5 million people [37]. The country has a complex multi-level governance system with 330 townships at the lowest level of government [38]. Much of the population in Myanmar lives in poverty (MMPF, 2017) and the country was ranked 145 out of 189 on the Human Development Index in 2019 [39]. There are four major rivers in Myanmar with populations reliant on each [22]. The Ayeyarwady is the largest and the most important used in commerce and daily life [22]. Most of the country has a tropical monsoon climate, with river floods commonly occurring between May and October [22].

#### **2.2 Conceptual framework**

#### *2.2.1 Understanding root causes and dynamic pressures*

This chapter used the long-standing Pressure and Release Model (PAR) to understand how root causes were translated into unsafe conditions that are current vulnerabilities through dynamic pressures. As explained in the introduction, root causes are defined as "an interrelated set of widespread and general processes within a society and the world economy" [7]. Dynamic pressures are "processes and activities that

**Figure 1.** *Myanmar with labeled states. Townships are the next administrative level down.*

translate the effects of root causes both temporally and spatially into unsafe conditions" [7]. Unsafe conditions are the specific conditions in which the vulnerability of the people and ecosystems is expressed in time and space when being exposed to a hazard. Unlike the original concept of the PAR model, this analysis will consider that root causes can lead to all components of risk: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability of socio-ecological systems.

#### *2.2.2 Conceptual framework of flood risk*

To define risk, this chapter built on the common risk framework from the IPCC 5th assessment report, where risk is the potential for adverse consequences and is a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability [36], and the PAR model where root causes and dynamic pressures are considered (**Figure 2**). In this analysis, we focused

**Figure 2.** *Conceptual framework of socio-ecological system of flood risk.*

on present-day flood risk to people, agricultural, and ecosystems. Exposure was defined as the presence of people and ecosystems within the extent of the hazard [40] —a 100-year river flood and coastal flood event. Vulnerability was defined as the propensity or predisposition of the Myanmar people to be adversely affected and encompassed the components of susceptibility and coping capacity [40]. Root causes and dynamic pressures have impacts on all elements of risk. As mentioned in the above section, it is the difference from the PAR model, where root causes have only drive vulnerability. In this framework, those underlying causes and dynamic pressures drive all elements of risk (**Figure 2**).
