**6. Development of a new risk management model**

The weights of the risk criteria were calculated by the fuzzy DEMATEL method and classified as high, moderate, and low-risk groups according to the data obtained. The effects that the risks will create in case of occurrence are classified as shown in **Table 11**.

The "Risk Decision Matrix" in Appendix **Table A1** was created by utilizing the risk criterion weights and impact scores. It was obtained by dividing the weights of the risk criteria (importance of the risks) into the matrix depending on the effective value of the risks in case of occurrence.

The five-point value scale developed by Liberatore was used to rank the impact values of the risks. This scale consists of excellent, good, moderate, mediocre, and weak points [36]. This scale is adapted to classify effect values as very low, low, medium, high, and very high.

For example, the weight of the risk of "the assessor and internal verifiers do not have sufficient knowledge and experience" was determined as 0.054. The resulting weight was multiplied by "1000." The effects that the risk will create in case of occurrence and their scores are listed in the "Risk Decision Matrix" in Appendix **Table A1**. Accordingly, the score of the risk in case of very high impact is 0.054, in case of high impact "(4\*0.054)/5", in case of medium impact "(3\*0.054)/5", in case of low impact "(2\*0.054)/5," and in case of very low impact, it was calculated as "(1\*0.054)/5." Similar calculations were made for all sub-risk criteria.

The actions to be taken in case of occurrence of risks according to the risk decision matrix are shown in **Table 12**. The actions to be taken by Vocational Qualification Authority in case of occurrence of the risk are determined together with the expert group.


#### **Table 11.**

*The effects that the risk will create in case of occurrence.*

*Development of a Risk Management Model by the Fuzzy DEMATEL Method in the Evaluation… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.110018*


#### **Table 12.**

*Precautions to be taken against risk and actions to be taken in case of occurrence.*

**Figure 3.** *The flow of the new risk management model.*

As a result, a new risk management model has been proposed for organizations to evaluate risks related to measurement and evaluation activities and to take necessary precautions. The flow of the new risk management model is presented in **Figure 3**.

## **7. Conclusion**

Risk management is defined as the activities aimed at identifying the risks that businesses may encounter and evaluating and reducing these risks. The subject of risk management is to define, evaluate, and respond appropriately to events or situations that are likely to occur and are considered to affect the achievement of the goals and objectives of the administration when they occur [15].

Thanks to risk management, businesses identify the risks involved in the activities they perform, evaluate the possibility of the risks to occur and the effect when they occur, plan the necessary preventive actions, and thus turn the threat or danger element posed by the risks into an advantage [12].

Within the scope of the study, the possible risks to be encountered in the assessment and certification activities of the certification bodies authorized by the Vocational Qualifications Authority, a public institution operating in Turkey, were evaluated. The possible risks in the assessment activities of the organizations were determined, and the fuzzy DEMATEL method, which is one of the Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making Methods, was used to evaluate the risks.

For the application of the method, a questionnaire questioning the effect status among the risk criteria was designed. The designed questionnaire was applied to a group of experts consisting of 12 people. At this stage, the CFCS (Converting Fuzzy Data into Crisp Scores) defuzzification method, which was developed by Opricovic and Tzeng (2003) for the application of fuzzy DEMATEL, was used [30, 31].

The answers given to the questionnaires by the expert group were converted into fuzzy numbers and these numbers were clarified by using the CFCS method. The relations and risk weights between the main risk groups, the relations between the sub-risks under the main risk groups, and the sub-risk weights were determined. The final weights were obtained by integrating the main risk criteria weights and sub-risk criteria weights. Depending on the criterion weights, the risks are classified as low, moderate, and high.

As a result of the calculations made within the scope of fuzzy DEMATEL, it was determined that the criterion with the highest priority among the main risk criteria groups was "Assessment and Certification Activities" with a score of 0.22. This criterion was followed by "Impartiality and Reliability" with 0.18 points, "Internal Verification Activities" with 0.17 and "Human Resources" with 0.17 points. While the main criteria of internal verification and human resources were of equal importance, "Assessment Material" with 0.15 points and "Physical and Technical Facilities" with 0.11 points followed these criteria.

When the sub-risk criteria are examined within the scope of the main criteria, it has been determined that the criteria with the highest priority and accordingly the high-risk group are generally sub-criteria within the scope of the human resources main criterion.

It was determined that the criteria defined under assessment and certification activities came in second place, and the criteria within the scope of impartiality and reliability took the third place. While the criteria for impartiality and reliability,

### *Development of a Risk Management Model by the Fuzzy DEMATEL Method in the Evaluation… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.110018*

assessment material, and internal verification are generally in the moderate-risk group, the criteria for physical and technical facilities are in the low-risk group.

It has been observed that the distribution of the criteria to risk groups (low, moderate, and high) is homogeneous. Validity and reliability of assessment and certification activities depend on the competence of the assessors and internal verifiers, and the risks that may arise from the assessors and internal verifiers pose a high risk in terms of the validity and reliability of the related activities. For this reason, the fact that the sub-risk criteria weights due to human resources are high and they are included in the high-risk group have been evaluated as a suitable result by the expert group.

The weights of the risks have been determined, the effects to be created in the assessment and certification activities in case of occurrence of the risks have been calculated, and the activities to be carried out according to the obtained results have been determined. The effects of the risks in case of occurrence are classified as very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Impact values were assigned as one for very low, two for low, three for moderate, four for high, and five for very high.

By making use of the five-point value scale, the risk criteria weights were distributed to the matrix depending on the impact value of the risks in case of occurrence, and the "Risk Decision Matrix" was obtained. In line with the results obtained from the matrix, the precautions that should be applied by the institutions and the sanctions to be applied in case the risks occur in the systems of the institutions were determined.

As a result, a new risk management model was designed for the assessment and management of risks. The new model designed both offers a new approach and guides the institutions in the management of the risks in the assessment activities of the assessment and certification bodies. It is evaluated that the stages defined in the new risk management model designed can be used in many different fields of activity, and thus, businesses operating in various sectors and fields can identify and measure the possible risks in their system. According to risk value obtained by using this model, they can determine the necessary precautions and sanctions.

## **Thanks**

The author of the chapter would like to thank Prof. Dr. Abdullah Süreyya ERSOY and also the managers and employees of the Vocational Qualifications Authority who supported the necessary work for the writing of the chapter.
