**1. Introduction**

Oil Spills have never been reported as having occurred along the coasts of either South Carolina (SC) or North Carolina (NC). However, we present evidence, by way of a surrogate to oil droplets; a marine-based toxic biological plant, where a non-local source invasion of oil could occur in the coastal waters of those states. Additionally, via numerical modeling, we show that both non-local and local spills could invade SC and NC beaches. By way of example, an industrial disaster, the British Petroleum

Oil (BPO) Company Deepwater Horizon oil spill, occurred in late April 2010 in the eastern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). The BPO vessel, the Macondo Prospect, sprung a leak that resulted in the largest marine oil spill in the history of the petroleum industry. In truth, the BPO oil spill was contained in the GOM. Therefore, a presumption could be that given the BPO spill in the GOM, that future spills will be contained in kind. That is not the case, given evidence provided by our surrogate GOM-based toxic marine plant.

On October 31, 1987, Onslow Bay, NC continental shelf waters became infested with a yellow-green toxic organism. Investigators from the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Laboratory in Beaufort NC (Dr. P. Tester, p.c.) determined that the yellow-green patches consisted of the one-celled plant organism Ptychodiscus Brevis or the Karina Brevis Dinoflagellate, and accompanying marine algae indigenous to tropical waters such as the GOM. The effects of the one-celled intruder were immediate and widespread. Shellfish, such as clams, scallops and oysters became infected and rendered inedible. This particular Red Tide organism contained a neurotoxin that affected the nervous systems of higher life forms, including humans. As the neurotoxins become airborne via breaking waves, beachcombers and surf fishers suddenly felt the sensations of burning eyes and lungs, nausea, and dizziness. Subsequently shell fishing was banned in NC and the beaches were closed.

Federal and university scientists became suspicious that the Red Tide dinoflagellate was transported to the subtropical waters of NC and SC from the tropical south. If so, then what was the source of the K-Brevis and what was its pathway? The answer was addressed by Pietrafesa et al. [1] in which it was hypothesized that an atmospheric cold front in the GOM in August, the Loop Current, the Gulf Stream, and the atmospheric wind field of NC in late September and early October created a hypothetical scenario for the realization of this event. Could it happen again? Possibly. Further, could GOM spilled oil, a non-local event for the Carolinas, be transported the same way as the Red Tide to NC and SC? Further, could oil spilled locally off the NC coast be transported to NC and SC beaches and estuaries? Conventional wisdom is that the oil would be swept to away by the Gulf Stream and distributed across the North Atlantic Ocean to the north. However, via numerical model experiments we show that NC spills could reach the beaches of NC and SC. We develop the physical descriptive and numerical modeling scenarios below.

In Section 2, we describe the 1987 eastern GOM Red Tide event that reached NC and SC beaches. In Section 3, we discount the Astronomical Tides as a potential cause of non-local or oil spills reaching the NC or SC beaches. In Section 4, we describe Gulf Stream Variability and Frontal Filaments. In Section 5, we revisit the 1987 Red Tide event that invaded NC and SC coastal waters, via satellite imagery and then numerically model the non-local Red Tide event with modern numerical modeling. In Section 6, we model hypothetical local oil spills on the NC coast during the passages of a GSF and a typical mid-latitude cyclone. Section 7 includes the conclusions and summary.
