**5. Conclusion**

This chapter presents an application of probabilistic modelling using Monte Carlo simulation methods for strategic business decisions. We examined two decision strategies and evaluated the effects of the critical uncertain input variables on the outcome variables. What is apparent from the discussion is that making big strategic business decisions from the 'gut' or using deterministic models could be problematic. This is because deterministic models do not allow us to envision all possible scenarios that could affect our decisions and account for uncertainties in our business decisions. However, the expectation that the likelihood of all possible outcomes in a complex dynamic business problem can be accurately estimated using probabilistic models is unrealistic. Instead, probabilistic modelling using the Monte Carlo simulation method helps to combine all available insights about the relevant uncertainties and their impact on the variable of interest. Probabilistic modelling offers essential support to making risk-informed decisions if used appropriately.
