**Guessing the true state Y**

At the beginning of each period, you and the **2** participants in your session will receive two signals that will provide you with information about the true state **Y**. Both signals are randomly drawn given the true state from the interval [**Y**-10, **Y** + 10]. Because signals are randomly drawn, it is impossible to precisely predict the true state **Y** given the signals. However, they will give you an idea of a range where the true state **Y** might be. The examples below show you how signals should be interpreted:

#### **Example 1**


Based on both signals, you can deduce that the true state **Y** is between **50 and 64**.

#### **Example 2**


Based on both signals, you can deduce that the true state **Y** is between **10 and 15**. **Reminder:** The value **Y** cannot be less than 10!

### **Guessing the action of your playmates**

In the previous section, we explained how to guess the true state given the information that you receive (*public* and *private*). However, your gain will depend also on how well you can guess the actions chosen by the **2** other participants. The decisions of others are made by humans; therefore, your best option would be to try to predict the action the other participants are going to decide given their information. Here is what you know and what you do not know about the information available to other players in your group:

