LULC Dynamic Modelling

#### **Chapter 9**

## CA-Markov Approach in Dynamic Modelling of LULCC Using ESA CCI Products over Zambia

*Charles Bwalya Chisanga, Chizumba C. Shepande and Edson Nkonde*

#### **Abstract**

The Markov, Cell Atom and CA-Markov modules in TerrSet v19.0 have been applied to predict LULC maps for 2030 over Zambia. The European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) classified LULC maps for 2000, 2010 and 2020 were used in this study. The ESA-CCI LULC maps were reclassified using QGIS 3.20 into 10 classes. The 2000 and 2010 LULC maps were used to predict the 2020 LULC maps. The Kappa statistics between the 2020 reference and predicted LULC maps was kappa (0.9918). The probability and transition matrix between the 2010 and 2020 LULC maps were used as inputs into the CA-Markov module to generate the 2030 LULC map. The LULCC from 2020-2030 shows an expansion and contraction of different classes. However, Built-up (42.38% [481.82 km<sup>2</sup> ]) constitutes major changes among the LULC classes. However, Cropland, Dense forest, Grassland, Wetland and Bare land will reduce by 376.00, 1087.65, 70.60, 26.67 and 0.36 km<sup>2</sup> , respectively. Other LULC changes from 2020-2030 are in seasonally flooded grassland (94.66 km<sup>2</sup> ), Sparse forest (497.05 km<sup>2</sup> ), Shrub land (410.11 km<sup>2</sup> ) and Water body (77.63 km<sup>2</sup> ). The prediction of future LULC from historical LULC using CA-Markov model plays a significant role in policy making and land use planning.

**Keywords:** CA-Markov, cellular automata, ESA CCI, LULC, Markov

#### **1. Introduction**

Land use/land cover (LULC) has been defined as the physical composition and characteristics of land elements on the earth's surface [1]. The changes in LULC are caused by both natural and anthropogenic factors such as deforestation, and the intensification of agriculture [1–3]. Leta et al. [2] noted that the changes in LULC involve multifaceted processes that are dynamic, non-linear human-nature interactions that cause substantial land surface changes. The world-wide changes in LULC trajectory in the recent past have been characterised by gains and losses in agriculture and forests, respectively [2–4]. Researchers like Leta et al. [2], Pérez-Vega et al. [4],

and Kolb et al. [5] argue that LULC changes are associated with major changes in forest land to agriculture, built-up and deforestation.

The dynamics of LULC change may be monitored using remotely sensed data (satellite imagery). The satellite imagery data is provided at different spatial, temporal and spectral resolutions and this is used to detect changes on the earth's surface [6]. The prediction of LULC change is vital in strategic developmental plans and in the management of LULC [7, 8]. There are myriads of Land Use Land Cover Change (LUCC) models that have been developed and these includes; Markov model, Cellular Automata (CA) models, statistical models, GeoMod, evolutionary models, CLUE-S model, hybrid models and multi-agent models [9–13]. Markov models can quantitatively predict the dynamic changes in landscape patterns [13]. Unfortunately, these models cannot resolve the spatial patterns of landscape change [10, 14]. Conversely, the CA models can predict the spatial distribution of landscape patterns but fail to predict temporal changes [13]. Because of the above reasons, researchers use a combination of CA and Markov to model LULCC dynamically [10, 13]. The most convenient tool used in simulating the spatio-temporal LULCC and processes in the landscape is the CA-Markov model [11, 15, 16]. Researchers have used the CA-Markov model to model dynamically the spatiotemporal LULCC and predict future scenarios [15, 17–26].

Using a Markov process, the future state of a system can be simulated using the immediately preceding state [8]. The Markov model describes LULC change from one time period to another and this is the basis used to project future changes [8, 27]. The Markov outputs are the transition probability, area matrices and probability images of LULC change from the initial time to time two which displays the nature of change as the basis for projecting a future time period. The LULCC has been analysed in Europe, USA, South America, Asia and Africa [2, 28]. The expansion of agricultural fields in Africa has been influenced by population growth [2]. Agriculture has been recognised as the main driver of land use change (LUC). The dynamics of urban growth are linked to factors associated with demography especially in developing countries.

The future LULC condition can be determined using modelling such as CA-Markov models. The CA-Markov is a combination of cellular automata and Markov. It is a LULC prediction procedure that adds an element of spatial contiguity and the likely spatial distribution of transitions to Markov change analysis [10]. The CA-Markov models can be used to model and monitor LULC change at spatial and temporal scale [8]. It has been used by [27, 29–31] to successfully model future LULCC.

Researchers involved in LULCC agree that the intellectual foundation of validation for land use change models is insufficient [2]. The literature reviewed suggest insufficient research on rigorous validation of LUCC models has been conducted [32, 33]. The objectives of this study were to investigate and analyse the spatio-temporal ESA CCI LULCC for 2000, 2010 and 2020 and to predict LULCC for 2030. The study attempts to analyse the spatio-temporal LULC change based on 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030 using Zambia as a case study. The study also simulated the spatial variation in LULC change in 2000, 2010 and 2020 and used CA-Markov model to predict 2030 LULCC.

#### **2. Materials and methods**

#### **2.1 Study area**

The study covers the whole country, Zambia is used in this as shown in **Figure 1**. It is located in southern Africa and its spatial extent is between �8.27<sup>o</sup> to �18.075<sup>o</sup>

*CA-Markov Approach in Dynamic Modelling of LULCC Using ESA CCI Products over Zambia DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.103032*

#### **Figure 1.** *Location of Zambia in southern Africa.*

latitude South and 22.00o to 33.7<sup>o</sup> longitude East. Zambia is divided into three Agro-ecological Regions (AERI, AERII and AERIII) and ten provinces as shown in the figure below.

#### **2.2 Sources of classified satellite imagery data**

The global land cover maps utilised in this study were the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) datasets [34, 35]. The LULC maps for 2000, 2010 and 2020 were downloaded from the ESA web site (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/ cdsapp#!/dataset/satellite-land-cover?tab=form). The LULC maps for Zambia were clipped using the shapefiles for the administrative boundary. The annual ESA CCI LULC maps v2.1.1 (2000, 2010) and v2.0.7 (2020) have better quality in the classification and representation of change compared to v1.6.1 epoch-based datasets. The spatial resolutions of the LULC maps are at 300 m. These maps are reliable and cover the whole globe [34, 35]. The individual pixel value matches the labels of the land cover classes as defined by the United Nations (UN) Land Cover Classification System LCCS [35]. The UN LCCS classifiers having 22 classes makes provisions for further conversion into the Plant Functional Types distribution required by the Earth System Models. The global land cover datasets are produced in Coordinate Reference System (CRS).

#### **2.3 Reclassification of land use types**

The ESA CCI LULC datasets have 22 classes [34, 35] which were reclassified into 10 classes (**Table 1**). The reference for integration into 10 classes is the Food and

#### *Geographic Information Systems and Applications in Coastal Studies*


#### **Table 1.**

*Classified LULC map of 2000, 2010 and 2020 in square kilometres*.

Agriculture (FAO) Openforis EarthMap and Vito Landcover viewer tools located at http://www.openforis.org/newwebsite/tools/earth-map.html and https://lcviewer. vito.be. The ESA 22+ classes were reclassified into 10 classes using *r.reclass* module in QGIS software.

#### **2.4 Land use and land cover change using CA-Markov model**

Researchers have used CA-Markov to monitor LULCC and predictions [12, 15, 17, 19–22, 25, 26]. The CA-Markov model in TerrSet v19.0 has been adopted in this study to obtain reliable results for Zambia. The 2030 LULC map was predicted based on the state of 2020 LULC. The CA-Markov model in TerrSet v19.0 uses a Markov, CellAtom (Cellular Automata) and CA-Markov modules [10, 11]. The CA-Markov model was used to calculate the amounts of change that may occur to some selected locations in the future [10, 11]. It analyses two qualitative LULC maps from different dates and produces a transition matrix, a transition areas matrix, and a set of conditional probability images [10]. The CA-Markov model is a stochastic process model that describes the probability of change from one date to another [2]. The transition probability would be the probability that a land cover type (pixels) at the initial time (t0) changes to another land cover type at the second time (t1). The changes in LULC between 2000 and 2010 were used to develop a transition probability, area matrices and probability images.

The Markov modules were used to generate the suitability transition images and change matrix. The cellular automata transition rule was implemented in TerrSet v19.0 using a combination of FILTER and RECLASS modules [10]. The CellAtom module was used to generate transition suitability images. The FILTER and RECLASS modules were used to create filters and reclassifying the LULC maps before implementing the cellular automata transition rules [10]. On the other hand, the CA-Markov module output was the 2020 predicted LULC map. The VALIDATE module was used to produce the kappa statistics using the 2020 reference LULC map and the

*CA-Markov Approach in Dynamic Modelling of LULCC Using ESA CCI Products over Zambia DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.103032*


**Table 2.**

*Comparison and level of kappa agreement values [2, 37].*

2020 predicted LULC map. More details on how the process was implemented are provided by Eastman [11].

#### **2.5 Validation of the simulated map**

An important stage in the development of any predictive change model is validation [10]. Validation is a procedure used to assess the quality of the predicted LULC map against a reference map [2]. The 2020 predicted LULC map was validated using the 2020 reference LULC map. The VALIDATE module in TerrSet v19.0 [11] was used as it provides a comparative analysis based on the Kappa Index of Agreement (KIA). KIA is essentially a statement of proportional accuracy, adjusted for chance agreement [36]. The kappa for stratum level location (KlocationStrata) is a quantification of the spatial accuracy within pre-identified strata, and it indicates how well the grid cells are situated within the strata [11]. The blend of Kstandard, Kno, Klocation, and Klocation strata scores is considered for a comprehensive evaluation of the overall accuracy both in terms of location and quantity. The statistics; AgreementQuantity, AgreementChance, AgreementGridCell, DisagreementGridCell, and Disagreement-Quantity are used to ascertain the strength of the agreement. The Kstandard, Kno, Klocation, KlocationStrata, AgreeGridcell and AgreeQuantity were used in validating the accuracy of the prediction LULC map. The possible ranges of map comparison and level of kappa agreement values are shown in **Table 2**.

#### **3. Results and discussion**

#### **3.1 Gains and losses in LULC**

The gains and losses by category are shown in **Table 3**. All LULC classes experienced gains and losses except Bare land and Built-up. Built-up and Bare land categories had gains and losses from 2000 to 2010, 2010–2020 and 2000–2020, respectively. The Built-up class from 2000 to 2020 increased by 697.62 km<sup>2</sup> . From 2000 to 2020, the net gains in cropland, dense forest, wetland and water body were relatively large. Sparse forest, shrub land and grassland LULC were converted to other LULC classes. The sparse forest, shrub land and grassland LULC classes experienced net losses to other classes.

The LULCC from 2000 to 2020 in km2 is shown in **Table 4**. Cropland, dense forest, wetlands, built-up, bare land and water body had an overall increase of 1.40%, 1.26%, 2.64%, 37.5, 7.25% and 0.77% from 2000 to 2010, respectively. However, there


#### **Table 3.**

*Gains and losses by category.*

was an overall reduction of 0.39%, 1.91%, 4.91% and 0.57% in seasonally flooded grassland, sparse forest, shrub land, and grassland from 2000 to 2010, respectively. During 2010 and 2020, cropland, dense forest, grassland and bare land experienced a reduction of 0.71%, 0.19%, 0.85% and 1.43%, respectively. There was an overall increase in seasonally flooded grassland, sparse forest, shrub land, wetland, built-up and water body as shown in **Table 4**. Leta et al. [2] observed that the expansion of agricultural land for both domestic and commercial production are drivers of LULC change. Furthermore, cropland is on an increase while shrub land, forest and grassland are decreasing in the world.

From 2000 to 2020, cropland, dense forest, wetlands, built-up, bare land and water body had an overall increase of 3.28%, 1.92%, 8.27%, 56.98, 28.03% and 2.01%,


#### **Table 4.**

*LULCC from 2000 to 2020 in km<sup>2</sup> .* *CA-Markov Approach in Dynamic Modelling of LULCC Using ESA CCI Products over Zambia DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.103032*

**Figure 2.** *Classified LULC for 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030*.

respectively. However, there was an overall reduction in seasonally flooded grassland, sparse forest, shrub land and grassland by 0.45%, 3.28%, 9.55% and 0.98%, respectively. The LULCC analysis of 2000 to 2010, 2010 to 2020 and 2000 to 2020, results indicated a positive increase in built-up and water body. Rapid population growth and migration of people from rural to urban areas have resulted in unprecedented changes in LULC. From 2000 to 2010, 2010–2020 and 2000–2020, built-up class had the largest increase at 37.50%, 41.75% and 56.98% followed by bare land at 7.25% (2000– 2010) and 28.03% (2000–2020). Shrub land experienced a loss of 4.91% (2000–2010) and 9.55% (2000–2020) to other LULC classes. An increase in built-up and cropland LULC classes is anticipated to meet the demand of the population for residential and food production. This should be taken into consideration by policy makers and planners in future land use plans for sustainable management of natural resources such as soil fertility, water resources and forests (**Figure 2**).

#### **3.2 Transition matrices for Markov 2020 and 2030 prediction**

The transition matrix of Markov 2020 and 2030 predictions is shown in **Tables 5** and **6**. The CA-Markov model is simple to calibrate and can simulate LULCC dynamically with high efficiency [12]. Furthermore, it can simulate complex and multiple land cover patterns. The combination of Markov and Cellular Automata (CA-Markov) allows simulating the evolution of the geographical area represented by pixels. CA-Markov is a combined cellular automata/Markov change LULC prediction procedure that adds an element of spatial contiguity as well as knowledge of the likely spatial distribution of transitions to Markov change analysis [10]. Each pixel can take a value


*C 1 = Cropland; C 2 = Seasonally & flooded grassland; C 3 = Sparse forest; C 4 = Dense forest; C 5 = Shrub land; C 6 = Grassland; C 7 = Wetland; C 8 = Built-up; C 9 = Bare land; C 10 = Waterbody.*

**Table 5.** *Transition matrix of Markov 2020 prediction based on LULC maps 2000 and 2010.*


**Table 6.**

*Transition matrix of Markov 2030 prediction based on LULC maps 2010 and 2020.*

from a finite set of states. All pixels are affected by a transition function that takes as arguments of the measured values and values of the neighbouring pixels as a function of time [8, 10, 38].

#### **3.3 Validation of CA-Markov LULC prediction results**

**Table 7** shows the statistics of model validation. The Kappa Index of Agreement (KIA), Kno (kappa for no information), Klocation (kappa for location), Kstandard (kappa for standard), and KlocationStrata (kappa for stratum-level location) [39]

*CA-Markov Approach in Dynamic Modelling of LULCC Using ESA CCI Products over Zambia DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.103032*


#### **Table 7.**

*Kappa statistics for 2020 reference versus 2020 predicted LULC map.*

shown in **Table 7** indicate the accuracy of the prediction. The Kstandard, Kno, Klocation, KlocationStrata, AgreeGridcell, AgreeStrata, AgreeQuantity, AgreeChange, DisagreeQuantity, DisagreeStrata and DisagreeGridcell using user-defined filters of 3x3, 5x5 and 7.7 shown in **Table 7** indicate the performance of the prediction. The Kno indicates the agreement between the 2020 reference and 2020 predicted LULC map. The Klocation was almost perfect and indicated the spatial accuracy in the overall LULC in each category between the predicted and reference map [40]. **Table 8** shows the comparison between the predicted and reference LULC map. The overall Kappa


#### **Table 8.**

*Comparison of 2020 reference and 2020 predicted LULC map.*

between the 2020 reference and 2020 predicted map was 0.9918. The results indicate that reference and predicted LULC maps have many similarities. The difference between the maps is due to changes that will take place in the future LULC maps.

#### **3.4 Predicted LULCC in 2030**

**Figure 2** shows the 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030 LULCC maps over Zambia. The Built-up constitutes major changes among the LULC classes with an increasing trend at 42.38% (481.82 km<sup>2</sup> ) from 2020 to 2030 (**Table 8**, **Figure 3**). Researchers such as Jain et al. [41] have observed that built-up areas have increased while forests have decreased. The growth in built-up consequently causes a reduction in cropland or agricultural land. The 2020 to 2030 LULC prediction maps indicate that Cropland, Dense forest, Grassland, Wetland and Bare land will reduce by 0.82% (376.00 km<sup>2</sup> ), 0.24% (1087.65 km<sup>2</sup> ), 0.86% (70.60 km<sup>2</sup> ), 0.09% (26.67 km<sup>2</sup> ) and 0.80% (0.36 km<sup>2</sup> ), respectively. However, LULC classes of seasonally flooded grassland (0.58%, 94.66 km<sup>2</sup> ), Sparse forest (0.76%, 497.05 km<sup>2</sup> ), Shrub land (0.33%, 410.11 km<sup>2</sup> ), Built-up (42.38%, 481.82 km<sup>2</sup> ) and Water body (0.55%, 77.63 km<sup>2</sup> ) will increase from 2020 to 2030. Analysing historical LULCC from future LULCC using CA-Markov plays a significant role in forest management and land use planning [29, 31]. The CA-Markov model can be applied in modelling and quantifying transition rates and different states of diverse land uses [24]. The CA-Markov model can simulate larger areas efficiently [13] such has been undertaken in this study. However, CA-Markov is very sensitive in simulating smaller regions as noted by [13, 42].

The gains and losses by category indicate that Built-up will have gains of 479.36 km<sup>2</sup> between 2020 and 2030. The Cropland, Dense forest, Grassland, Wetland and Bare land LULC categories will experience greater losses compared to gains as shown in **Table 9**. On the other hand, seasonally flooded grassland, Sparse forest, Shrub land and Water body LULC categories will experience greater gains than losses. Therefore, LULC prediction is important as it contributes to national, and regional planning and management of natural resources [3].

**Figure 3.** *Gains and losses by categories of LULC from 2020 to 2030 over Zambia*.


*CA-Markov Approach in Dynamic Modelling of LULCC Using ESA CCI Products over Zambia DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.103032*

> **Table 9.**

*Percent changes in LULC classes from 2000 to*

 *2030.*

#### **4. Conclusions**

The prediction of future LULC from historical LULC using CA-Markov model plays a significant role in policy making, land use planning and in natural resource management. There are major changes in built-up areas during the historical (2000 and 2020) and future (2030). An increase in built-up and cropland LULC classes is anticipated to meet the demand of the population for residential and food production. This should be taken into consideration by policy makers and planners in future land use plans for sustainable management of natural resources. This study has shown that the ESA CCI products can be used in LULC analysis and in predicting future LULCC.

#### **Acknowledgements**

The authors would like to thank ESA for the provision of the ESA CCI LULC maps and codes for converting NetCDF to Gtiff used in this study.

#### **Author contributions**

Downloading, preparation and analysis of the ESA CCI data by CBC. Methodology development by CBC. Model setup, simulation and validation by CBC. Drafting of the original manuscript by CBC. Abstract and conclusion by CCS. Reviews and editing by EN and CCS.

#### **Contribution to the field statement**

The information generated from change detection can be used in land use planning. The European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) products can be used in LULCC analysis and in predicting future LULCC at 300 m spatial resolution. The prediction of future LULC from historical LULC using CA-Markov model plays a significant role in policy making and land use planning.

#### **Funding information**

There was no funding for this research.

#### **Competing interests**

The authors declare no competing interests.

#### **Data availability statement**

The datasets analysed during the current study are available in the ESA CCI repository (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/satellite-land-cover? *CA-Markov Approach in Dynamic Modelling of LULCC Using ESA CCI Products over Zambia DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.103032*

tab=form). The reclassified datasets are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

#### **Institutional Review Board Statement**

Not applicable.

#### **Informed Consent Statement**

Not applicable.

#### **Author details**

Charles Bwalya Chisanga<sup>1</sup> \*, Chizumba C. Shepande<sup>2</sup> and Edson Nkonde<sup>3</sup>

1 Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, Copperbelt University, Kitwe, Zambia

2 University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia

3 Zambia Meteorological Department, Ministry of Transport and Communication, Lusaka, Zambia

\*Address all correspondence to: cbchisanga@gmail.com

© 2022 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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### Section 8
