**5. Conclusion**

The research concludes that:

1.The calculation model for the estimated discharge is based on the ten daily rainfall data from the selected watershed which includes Kali Asem Catchment Area and Umbul sub-watersheds. This is in the form of a mathematical equation which is stated as follows

**Q1** = 0,021 **Z21**0,022 **Z22** + 0,713 where: **Z21** = 0,755 **Z11** + 7685 **Z12**–8477 **Z22** = 7359 **Z11** + 2927 **Z12**–1755 And, **Z11** = 2434 **P1–**1422 **P2**–2730 **P3** + 2198 **P4** + 1798 **P5**–0,823 **P6** + 1206 **P7**–4729 **P8** + 5893 **Z12** = 2385 **P1**–1312 **P2–**1428 **P3–**2700 **P4–**0,613 **P5** + 3194 **P6**–0,166 **P7**–3937 **P8** + 5369 **Q2** = 0,033 **Z21** + 0,562 **Z22** + 0,129 **Q3** = 0,891 **Z21**0,739 **Z22** + 0,236 **Q4** = 0,762 **Z21** + 0,987 **Z22** + 0,267 **Q5** = 0,087 **Z21** + 0,999 **Z22** + 0,681 **Q6** = 0,068 **Z21**0,648 **Z22** + 0,644 **Q7** = 0,748 **Z21**0,179 **Z22** + 0,389 **Q8** = 0,101 **Z21** + 0,332 **Z22** + 0,383

The simulation test showed that the model was accepted at α = 5% or 95% confidence level and the reliability of its parameters, when applied to Sutami sub-watershed, was found to be only 80%.:

	- P50 = 36.84 which means the normal rainfall in the analysis period was 36.84 mm/ten daily.
	- Qaw50 = 16.27 which means the normal discharge at AWLR during the analysis period was 16.27 m<sup>3</sup> /sec. Ten daily.
	- Qd50 = 21.31 which means the normal discharge at AWLR in the analysis period was 16.27 m<sup>3</sup> /sec. Ten daily.
	- Qaw80 = 11.31 which means that the dependable discharge in AWLR in the analysis period is 11.31 m3 /sec. Ten daily.
	- Qd80 = 14.32 which means the dependable discharge at Umbul Dam during the analysis period was 14.32 m<sup>3</sup> /sec. Ten daily.

3.HDI for Kali Asem and Umbul sub-watersheds have the following limitations:


HDI in Sutami sub-watershed has the following limits:

