**6. Conclusion**

This study puts on show that the life cycle prediction of a downward pressure on saving by aging population could not be proved under uncertainty. Population aging is, on contrast, found to exert a long-term upward pressure on saving in an unemployment context. The economic environment's uncertainty (such income uncertainty) quantified, in our case of study, by the unemployment phenomenon, looks to be an essential factor of the change in the life cycle pattern of savings. It is able to shaping the saving behavior and to distort the LCH. The impact of the demographic change seems strongly related to the economic confidence factors. Accordingly, the social and economic conditions limit the scope of the LCH. Thus, population aging will not necessarily spell disaster on national saving. Consequently, studies' findings on developed countries could not be representative of saving behavioral in developing countries; where pension and medical insurance schemes are less developed and the persistent unemployment is without unemployment allowance benefit. Furthermore, it seems that the empirical findings checking the LCH depend on the aging indicator used. In fact, the use of the total dependency ratio could not validate the LCH, but it is validated by the old-age dependency ratio use. So, with more caution on the population aging measure, the evidence that elderly do not dissave may be found and the life cycle prediction may not be endorsed. Henceforth, the life cycle hypothesis may not be validated in macroeconomic approach as in the micro-econometric approach.

### *The Life Cycle Hypothesis and Uncertainty: Analyzing Aging Savings Relationship in Tunisia DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.100459*

Finally, as policy implications, several measures are needed to sustain saving rate or to prevent it from an eventual decline. In addition to the strategy applied lately to postponing the retirement age to 62 years-old, Tunisian Policy-makers have to accelerate the move from the pay-as-you-ago public pension system towards the funded pension system to cut costs of increasing old-age benefits. As well, to mobilize more savings, they should shift the liquid savings towards long-term products. Accordingly, it is important to reconsider the long-term savings strategy to meet the household's needs as well as the huge potential investment's needs. Therefore, major economic and financial reforms should be undertaken to restructure public corporates and the partial openness of their capital, to strengthen the pension plans, to develop the insurance sector and promote life insurance, and to improve the framework of the stock market and the bond market and diversify product of savings.
