**4. Conclusions**

The importance of acting, prior to enrollment and during the crucial first weeks of study [22], is ratified by the empirical evidence found. Students who are diligent in the first weeks of study of the academic period and who have an AP equal to or higher than 75% of the grade, have the best chances of passing the semester in that subject. This result is not a coincidence, nor a simple modeling, it is a phenomenon related to human behavior, because students base their behavior on the evidence that they are generating of their learning process, with this the academic selfconcept is formed [13] that will surely influence the decision to remain or abandon the studies in that career and even in the university.

In light of the evidence, the models found and validated can be used as a tool to proactively identify - in the first weeks - students at high risk of low AP and with them work intervention strategies [9, 23], which allow changing the course of the final behavior of AP. If the course of AP is not modified in the first weeks, the risk is to have an unsatisfactory final AP, the latter, will be the cause for the student to make the decision to drop out early and that in the vast majority of cases becomes desertion. Students with low intrasemester or short-term AP are less willing to continue their studies, their decision is based on a simple rule: the quantitative

academic results are not very satisfactory and do not generate a favorable expectation in the long term.

In this research, the behavior of AP in the very short term is collected, and what might happen in the short term - at the end of the semester - is analyzed, but grades are strongly correlated and the short term affects the long term [24]. The initial results, in time have direct consequences on the terminal efficiency rates and personally are determinants of post-education, other higher studies and work.
