**Abstract**

The academic performance of the first weeks of the study period, determine or project the final academic performance; This phenomenon, mainly, is since the student seeks and finds stimulus in her results, even if they are very short-term. This article proposes a way of modeling the evolution of academic performance intraperiod, to guide the accompanying actions during the process and not after it. The degree cohort of the distance study system, April–August 2019 (6,675 students), from the Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja, was followed up, through probability models, on the four moments of performance measurement academic and it was found that, at the first moment of measurement, students who accumulated a result equal to or greater than 75% of the possible grade, had a high probability of passing the course.

**Keywords:** Academic performance, dropout, open and distance learning, learning analytics
