**4. Results**

100 runs of data that were collected from the SABANP model using the IBSs on DDG-51, CG-47 and CVN-68 were aggregated. The results revealed that the DDG-51 IBS has a 52% probability of being the best system among the systems examined

#### *The Application of Simple Additive Bayesian Allocation Network Process in System… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.98530*

in the trade-off analysis as shown in **Table 14**. The CG-47 IBS is the second best with a 51.78% probability, shown in **Table 15** and the CVN-68 IBS is the third best with a 51.56% probability as shown in **Table 16**. The sensitivity analysis conducted on the result over ten thousand times shows that the DDG-51 IBS is less susceptible to obsolescence than its counterparts.

The results of the SABANP model also revealed that in the 100 runs with respect to the best system, Procurement (PR), which includes Vendor Assembly and Installation support, at 79.1% is a critical criterion path that could have the most adverse effect on a system's lifecycle operations, and it should be prioritized with respect to the design, development, testing, maintenance. This is followed by the TRL at 76.1%, O&SR at 75%, and DR&TD at 72.1%. The least adverse effect is the availability of OA&S at 16.5%. **Table 17** show the breakdown of the likelihood of an impact for each obsolescence criterion across the systems that were selected.


#### **Table 14.**

*SABANP runs DDG-51 IBS.*


**Table 15.** *SABANP runs CG-47 IBS runs.*

## *Advances in Decision Making*


### **Table 16.**

*SABANP runs CVN-68 IBS runs.*


**Table 17.** *Likelihood of impact for each obsolescence criterion across the selected systems (N = 100).* *The Application of Simple Additive Bayesian Allocation Network Process in System… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.98530*


#### **Table 18.**

*IBS ranking of the result (TOPSIS) solutions. "S" score and "R" ranking.*

#### **4.1 Validation**

To validate the results, comparative analyses were done using TOPSIS. Whereas for SABANP, the weight data were not required since normalization was the only required parameter. The result shows that TOPSIS ranked the DDG-51 IBS as the best system, which follows the results provided by the SABANP model. The results of the ranking and comparisons to TOPSIS is found in the **Table 18**.

#### **5. Conclusions**

The use of SABANP for obsolescence management and as a method for selecting the system or technology that could potentially mitigate obsolescence early in the design stage of a system was successfully demonstrated. The results also indicate that systems should be designed with a proactive obsolescence approach in mind. MCDM that is deterministic (TOPSIS) model was also applied and demonstrated similar results in identifying the best systems among alternatives that mitigate obsolescence. The proposed model is shown to successfully combine quantitative and qualitative expert judgment data that incorporate attributes such as risk and training criteria using SABANP in order to efficiently propagate the evidence of obsolescence.

The analysis conducted in this chapter can serve to provide a holistic analysis of obsolescence in systems. The results of the data analysis were presented to the experts, and concluded that the IBS on DDG-51 was the best system for mitigating obsolescence. Future research should be focused on conducting systems engineering trade studies with the use of SABANP in decision making. This allows for the documentation of early decisions in a program and reducing long-term waste. Notwithstanding, it is recommended that all identified criteria in this work be prioritized equally in the design, development, testing, and maintenance.

This chapter recommends the use of SABANP in obsolescence management in order to conduct trade studies for systems during the design stage. The chapter does not intend to be an authoritative decision mechanism nor provide a recommendation for the best MCDM to use for the normalization technique. Rather, it serves as a new tool, approach, or guidance in obsolescence decision management. Additionally, future research can evaluate the normalization of other MCDM techniques in comparison to the SAW that was utilized in the SABANP model.

#### **Author statement**

This chapter is an extension of the author's original published research article. The views that are conveyed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the official policy or position of NSWC Philadelphia, the DoD, and its contractors, or the U.S. Government.
