**Abstract**

A dairy is a place that is used for handling milk and milk products. Dairy products are basically based on milk. Milk is used to prepare dairy products, such as butter, cheese, and milk powder. There is always a great demand for milk and milk products among people. This study attempted to investigate the trends in the actual yield of cow's milk production at Andassa dairy farm. We used secondary data for the study of the daily milk production of cows at Andassa dairy farm. The specific objectives of the study were—to identify whether the milk production is time-dependent or not; to predict in which season the milk production is high or low; to examine the daily trend analysis of milk production; to fit the appropriate model; and to forecast the milk production for the future. The study was conducted based on quantitative variables. So, the dependent variable is the average daily milk, and the independent variable is the time measure at which milk production is measured each day. The study used both descriptive and inferential statistics to analyze the data that were collected from the dairy farms in the sector. This study covered a total of 179 days of milk production. The results reveal that the milk yield of cows is declining, and that milk output is time-dependent, according to the time series plot, and that the model is ARIMA.

**Keywords:** milk production, time series analysis, forecasting

## **1. Introduction**

A dairy is a place that is used for handling milk and milk products. Dairy products are basically based on milk. Milk is used to prepare dairy products, such as butter, cheese, and milk powder. There is always a great demand for milk and milk products among people. Most of the time, milk is used as a complete food for infants. It is used in all homes, hotels, and restaurants as well as in milk products. Most countries are expanding their production systems to increase the supply of milk and fulfill the needs of the people [1].

Unless it is produced and handled under sanitary circumstances, milk is an essential route for the spread of harmful germs to humans. As a result, sanitary milk production must be prioritized in order to give more high-quality milk to the general population. Consumers need clean, healthy, and nutritious food, which has been produced and processed in a safe, sanitary manner, and is free of pathogens [2]. As a result, premium milk production is required to meet consumer demand. Milk that is

free of pathogenic bacteria and hazardous poisonous compounds, free of silt and extraneous elements, of good flavor, of normal composition, adequate in maintaining quality, and low in a bacterial count is considered to be of high quality; on the other hand, the superiority of milk has persisted deprived [3]. A number of technological innovations now permit automated daily monitoring of cow performance [4]. The use of automated milk yield recording systems for early detection of diseases requires a statistical model to forecast expected performance and actual performance. Previous research on modeling milk production in cows has focused on fitting linear or nonlinear deterministic models to daily, weekly, or monthly milk measurements. Milk production is an integral part of the Andassa agricultural farming system. Even though the area has potential for milk and dairy products, little is known about the existing dairy production system, constraints, and opportunities associated with dairying in this area. It is essential that researchers and dairy development agents understand the existing situations in order to design relevant development strategies for the specific regions [5]. Therefore, the main objective of the study was to predict trends, seasonal effects, and future yields in cow's milk through time series analysis.
