**5. Data source and empirical model**

This study is based on country level data of Myanmar cereal crops for the time span of 2009 to 2019 obtained from various sources such as FAO STAT and Department of Agriculture and Department of Meteorology. The data are classified into two parts: cereal crop production and meteorological variables (temperature and precipitation). The data on cereal crop production are obtained from FAO STAT and meteorological variables are obtained from Statistical Yearbook with various issues. The data on agricultural inputs such as use of pesticides, application of fertilizers was obtained from FAO STAT. Climate variables such as annual precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature have been taken into in the model. State and district-wise Annual rainfall data for the respective years (2009–2019) has been obtained from Central Statistical Yearbook from the Ministry of Planning, Finance and Industry in Myanmar [22].
