**6. Empirical model**

The relationship between climate change and agricultural production for the years 2009–2019 is analyzed with an econometrics model using Panel Regression. The data were collected for the country as a whole. Cereal crop production in kg per hectare is taken into consideration as Dependent variable while climate variable (average annual maximum and minimum temperatures, and average annual precipitation), agricultural inputs (application of fertilizer consumption, and phosphate and potash) are regarded as Explanatory variables.

This study is mainly used by multiple regression model. This regression analysis has been conducted using "R" to find out the best fit in the model. The "R" was used to analyze the data collected, and results is presented in table. Linear regression inferential statistic was used to analyze the contributions of the independent variables to the dependent. The statistical modeling applies observed country data on production of cereal crops and historical weather records to fit Linear regression functions in order to predict the response of cereal crop production [23, 24]. As a statistical model, Linear regression equation is used to link variations in historical year-to-year cereal crop production to variation in particular climate variables.

The functional form of the equation may be written as [25].

$$\left(TProd\right) = f\left(\text{TEMP}, \text{RAIN}, FC, \text{Phosphate}, \text{Potash}\right) \tag{1}$$

Where, TProd stands for total production for cereal crops. TEMP, RAIN, FC, Phosphate, Potash denotes annual temperature, rainfall, total fertilizer consumption, phosphate and potash respectively. Climate factors, fertilizers, phosphate and potash are assumed to be input factors for growth of production of cereal crops in multiple regression model.

The above equation can be written in the multiple regression form as:

$$\begin{array}{l} \ln(TPmod) = \beta \ 0 + \beta \ 1 \ln\left(\text{TEMP}\right) + \beta \ 2 \ln\left(\text{RAIN}\right) + \beta \ 3 \ln\left(FC\right) \\ \rightarrow \beta \ 4 \ \ln\left(\text{Phosphate}\right) + \beta \ 5 \ln\left(\text{Potash}\right) + \mu s \end{array} \tag{2}$$

Where, 0 is constant coefficient; 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, are the coefficients for the respective variables and μs is the intercept term.

## **7. Effect of climate change on cereal production**

Change in crop production are very sensitive to climate change particularly in changes in temperature and changes in rainfall [26, 27]. Climate change significantly affects the crop production due to the fact that crop production largely depends on temperature and water [28–30]. Climate change may lessen the period of crop maturation and increase in variation of crop yield, decrease suitable areas for crop production [31–33] decrease in crop yield, [34–36] and thereby leading to reduce crop production [37–39].

The result can be seen in **Table 2**. According to the result, the coefficient for temperature is found a negative and 1% significant in production of cereal crops in Myanmar. Temperature negatively affects the crop production due to the fact that temperatures in Dry Zone could reach 40–43°C during the hot dry season. This indicates that an increase in temperature reflects a decrease in cereal crop production in Myanmar. This means that a 1°C increase in temperature in the growing


*Macro Analysis of Climate Change and Agricultural Production in Myanmar DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.98970*

#### **Table 2.**

*Regression result of climate change on cereal production.*

period may decrease with production of cereal by 3849347 tons. It is found that an increase in temperature strongly influences on crop production and the temperature-related extreme weather events have an association with the production of cereal crops. The result is the same with the finding of Lesk et al. 2016 that drought and extreme temperature adversely affected on production of agriculture across the world and also greater impact on production of cereal crops [40]; and finding of You L et al. 2009 who found that in term of cereal crops, the higher temperature can negatively effect on cereal production, reflecting a 1°C increase in temperature in the growing period may decrease production of wheat by about 3–10% [41]. The result is also consistent with the finding of [42, 43] in which higher temperatures may have negative impact on aggregate output. An increase in temperature-related extreme weather events have an association with reduction in production of crops in Myanmar. Due to the reason, irrigation is largely demanded in order to cope with reduction in cereal crops production. To cope with this condition, water storage need to be reinforced in order to capture rain to reduce water needs in growing season.

The result found that the coefficient for rainfall are also negative but not significant with production of cereal crop production. This indicates that an increase in rainfall reflects a decrease in cereal crop production due to the fact that heavy intense of rain may cause frequent floods in Central Dry Zone that greatly affect the production of crop. Mean annual rainfall is generally the lowest in the Central Dry Zone (500–1000 mm per year) that is prone to extreme heat events and drought. In term of cereal crops, the intense rain can negatively affect on production of cereal crops, reflecting a 1 mm increase in rainfall in the growing period may decrease production of cereal by 5762 tons. Changes in rainfall affects delaying planting date which keeps crops at risk under the condition of high temperature in the growing season [44].

The result also found that the coefficient for fertilizer and phosphate are negative but not significant with production of cereal crops, indicating that an increase in utilization of fertilizer and phosphate reflects a decrease in production of cereal crops. This means that improper use of fertilizer negatively affects the production of cereal crop production. One-kilogram increase in consumption of fertilizer per hectare decreases with 148386 tons of cereal crop production and One-kilogram increase in consumption of phosphate per hectare decreases with 111175 tons of

cereal production respectively. In order to improve production of cereal crop production, the social capital become urgently needed to incorporate and coordinate with respective stakeholders in order to adopt climate change adaptation measures such as stress tolerance crop varieties selection, enhancing drought resilience, drip irrigation technique for enhancing water use efficiency, sharing on climate resilient farming method among farmers, soil and water conservation, conservation and cultivation with local adaptable crop varieties in response to climate change. The same experience is found that the adoption of new technologies, such as droughttolerant seeds, and changing farm practices, as sowing dates, are moderating the impacts of climate variability and change on crop yields [45–47].
