**4. Results and discussion**

#### **4.1 Rainfall and temperature trends**

#### *4.1.1 Rainfall trends*

In terms of volume, as can be read from **Figure 4**, annual rainfall is seen decreasing with the magnitude of 3.8 mm/year which is not statistically significant (**Table 3**).

Similar finding in the region was reported by Belay et al. [28], Matewos and Tefera [23], and Misrak et al. [29] that both short and long period rainfall has decreased.

#### *4.1.1.1 Standardized precipitation index (SPI)*

Of all 31 years, 15 (48.4% of times considered) years, the area has been receiving below normal amount of annual rainfall (**Figure 5**). The year 2016 was the driest year followed by its successor while 2006 was the wettest one followed by 1997. In a decadal wise, most (10 out of 15 or 67%) droughts were recorded within 1998–2010. This implies that the years of 2000s were the years of frequent and continuous drought.

Of 15 droughts recorded within the time series (1987–2017), 11 (74%)—**Table 4** —were mild with SPI ranges of 0.02 to 0.96; 2 (13%) were moderate with the

**Figure 4.** *Annual total rainfall trend of the study area.*


#### **Table 3.**

*Annual and inter seasonal rainfall trends.*

**Figure 5.**

*Standardize annual mean rainfall anomalies of the study area. Source: MAKESENS output.*

SPI values of 1.38 and 1.10 recorded in 2000 and 2003, respectively and the rest 2 (13%) were severe droughts with the SPI values of 1.88 and 1.85 (**Figure 5**), recorded in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Similar findings were reported by other researcher such as Matewos and Tefera [23] and Misrak et al. [29].

Though it is a stumbling block among scholars, definitions of the drought whatever it is climatological, atmospheric, meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, or be it is water resource management, commonly agree on that it is condition of insufficient moisture caused by insufficient (normal need) precipitation over a series of times.

Thus, according to McKee et al. [30] and Hayes et al. advices, precipitation (standardized) which is major factor for the sufficiency and insufficiency of water sources (ground water, stream flow, snowpack, and reservoir storage), time scale, and probability are vital variables to analyze climate born drought. While precipitation analysis enable to look at the supply side of water resource both for consumptive and usable demands, time scale points out to look the duration of


#### **Table 4.**

*Annual drought frequency probability analysis.*

*Climate Change in Ethiopia: Implication on Human Capital in Rural Community - Case Study… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.98993*

sufficiency or deficit for these demand. Similarly, analysis on probability of occurrence of drought enables to inform stakeholder for further preparedness on the likelihood of associated risks. On top of this, extremely severe drought has not ever recorded for the last 31 years as meteorological data has revealed (**Table 4**).

On the other hand, in each of 15 years and 6 months, the study area experiences two droughts, one severe, and another moderate, while a mild drought occurs in every 2.8 years. The implication is the area is definitely prone to drought varying from most frequently occurring mild drought to severe drought through the moderate one (**Table 4**).

#### *4.1.2 Temperature*

Annual average maximum temperature has shown the increasing trend which is statistically significant (at *α* = 0.05; *P* = 0.012; **Table 5**). From **Figure 6**, it can be learnt that annual average maximum temperature ranges 30.81–31.77°C for the last 31 years which implies the raise by 0.96°C.

Throughout the study time series, 1987–2017, annual average maximum temperature is characterized by increase in the end of 1980s, fall in the beginning of 1990s, raise again in the late of 1990s, fall onset of 2000s, raise then again in the late of 2000s, abrupt down again in the early 2010s and the sharp rise again at the momentum which touched the highest (31.77°C) level in 2016 which as **Figure 6** shows is, also, associated with SOI which is linked to strong El Niño event in 2015/ 16. With annual average maximum temperature of 31.77°C, the year 2016 is the hottest year where the 1996 is the wettest with annual average maximum temperature of 30.81°C of all 31 years. On the other hand, global land surface mean temperature rose in 1990s which is known as the hiatus or pause and then tended to


*\*\*Significant trend at* <sup>α</sup> *= 0.05. \*\*\*Significant trend at* <sup>α</sup> *= 0.01.*

#### **Table 5.**

*Annual, Belg, and Kiremt average maximum temperature.*

**Figure 6.**

*Annual average maximum temperature of the study area.*

decline then since 2000s, Parker, Wendy. Relatively, recent years have become warmer and warmer than the early years. This finding is similar with report by Ministry of Water Resources [31].

Thus, finding on local level temperature coincides with facts both at national and global levels.

## **4.2 Climate change impact on human health**

Survey data revealed there is climate change impacts on human health recognized at a household and community level. The climate change impact on human health was explained through different paths.

The 77, 64, and 54% of the respondents believed that climate change has brought about negative impact on them and their family health through physiological inconveniences driven from extreme heat stress; occurrence of different diseases and increasing malnourishment rate (**Table 6**).

On the other hand, it was learnt from FGD and KIIs that climate change has brought about clear impact on the health of households and communities at large.

Intolerable heat stress and chilling frosts; diarrhea, typhoid, typhus and malaria; food and nutrition insecurities were commonly mentioned indicators of climate change impacts on the households and communities of the study area. This finding is in a line with Smith et al. [32] that reported multichannel impact of climate change on human health including heat stress, food insecurity, malnutrition and infectious diseases. Moreover, participant in four (80%; Safa of Dara, Falka of Lokka Abayya, Shello Ellancho of Borricha, and Rukessa Sukke of Hawassa Zuria) of five FGD held in the study area pointed out that impact of heat stress is exacerbated by acute water shortage in the districts.

In a spatial wise, the shortage was more resounded in Borricha, Lokka Abbayya, and Hawassa Zuria districts. Added, apart from health extension information, health services at health posts were neither easily accessible nor were they competent which signifies institutional malfunction, as participants claimed. Similar finding was reported by other scientific researchers including Hameso [33] and Matewos [34] that despite the fact that 97% coverage of health posts in the study area, the services were not sufficient and hence, as the poor members of the community could not afford for far distanced privately owned health services which, mostly, were found in the cities, they silently remain vulnerable to climate induced health shocks and further morbidities. These claims were partly found to be


#### **Table 6.**

*Impact of climate change on human capital.*

*Climate Change in Ethiopia: Implication on Human Capital in Rural Community - Case Study… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.98993*

acceptable by KIIs who were health extension and rural development agents in each of the districts.

Nutshell, data revealed that climate change has brought about negative impact on human health of the study area through the paths of generating physiological inconvenience (36%); mushrooming various climate driven human diseases (35%); and by exposing people to malnutrition (29%; **Figure 7**).

#### **4.3 Climate change and responses from households and community at large**

It was grasped from the participants of FGD and informants of KIIs that households and community at a large practice verities of copying mechanisms and adaptation strategies to withstand and to live with these climate shocks and reduce their impacts on their health. Receiving aids and transhumance were frequently mentioned practices to cope up climate shocks. Transhumance was being practiced to adjacent riverine localities of Bukito-Bura, Galade, Chiracha, Abaya Zuria, and Bilate Zuria. Despite participants and informants acknowledged the fact that this copying mechanism helped them to escape would be risks of droughts, at the same time, they also mentioned that they were exposed to get in to resource scarcity conflicts with pre-residing ethnic groups in the localities. According to their narrations, conflicts with Wolayita and Guji-Oromo ethnic groups were the typical ones. Thus, transhumance as a copying mechanism to family health impact of climate change offsets risks at hand while onsets other risks which is resource scarcity conflicts among rural community.

Furthermore, it was also raised by KIIs especially by school directors that, as long as households move with all the family members, students move with the transhumant family then by dropping out their school. Thus, children's right to education was being denied.

Receiving aid as another copying mechanism was also recognized to support the sustenance of lives exposed to climatic hazards.

On top of this, survey data revealed that 57% of the respondents responded receiving aid in terms of cash and kind. Though so, 64% of them responded that responded that receiving the said aid has encouraged the culture of dependency (**Figure 8**; **Table 7**).

Further, data revealed that the dependency syndrome among aid receiving rural household is manifested through poor saving (73%); negligence to adopting adaptation options (66%); skipping farming season (62%); and decreasing industriousness (52%).

Sum up, though copying mechanisms peoples practiced in the study areas in a response to negative impacts of climate changes were recognized to save human lives that could have not alive otherwise, data at the same time, pointed out that these mechanisms reproduced unintended negative impacts on community's peace

**Figure 7.** *Climate change impact on human health. Source: Survey 2020.*

#### **Figure 8.**

*Manifestations of aid dependency among rural households. Deindustriousness, decreasing industriousness; SkipFarmingS, skipping farming season; negligence, negligence to adopt adaptation strategies.*


#### **Table 7.**

*Aid receiving status of the households.*

and stability, child's education, and individuals' commitment to economic growth and sustainable development.

Thus, the aid organizations and government should work on antecedently to climate crisis so that to reduce further multiplying impacts on the households and on the community at large.

## **4.4 Climate change impact on education**

Result of survey pointed out that climate change has brought about negative impacts on the education of the people in the study area. And it was identified that paths of impacts are also different. Negative impact of the climate change was claimed to deny the child's right of access to education at rural settings. On top of this, 69% (**Table 6**) of the household believed that they had not been able to send their children to the school either at the onset of the school year or/and during the school course for not being able to afford for basic child provisions and facilities needed for the school.

This condition was further confirmed through all the group discussions held in the study area. As livestock was deteriorated in number; as crop yields remained only for hand to mouth which was even not sufficient for a household consumption, the groups narrated that, there was no source of finance to afford for all costs needed for school facilities of their children throughout the year and hence some household never enroll their children at the opening of the school while others' children drop amid the semesters. Per the FGD, the more the drier a year is, the less likely that a household send their children to the school; most likely the child, if was send perhaps, to drops out the school and follow the household's paths of copying

*Climate Change in Ethiopia: Implication on Human Capital in Rural Community - Case Study… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.98993*

mechanisms including temporary migration. This was affirmed through key informant interview with the school directors. Different adaptation strategies were being practiced at a community levels so as to reduce the impact of climate change on education including "School Feeding" program, aggressive afforestation at schools and digging boreholes in the schools so as to provide heat stressed and intolerably thirsted students with water at the school. On top of this, participants on focus group discussions and key informants (mainly school leaders) unambiguously disclosed that afforestation at the school has been contributing a lot so as to reduce heat irritations and inconveniences at schools. But at the same times, they did not report that as water tapes are running deeper following hydrological droughts in the areas, the boreholes they dug manually no more were being the sources of water for the schools; nor were there water pipelines nearby. This condition, therefore, requires the use of technology (which is beyond their affording capacities) such as water drilling machineries which dig up water from far deep and supply for the dehydrated students at the schools. This finding is alike with reports by Belay et al. [28] in the study of central rift valley of Ethiopia. On the other hand, according to key informant, particularly in three districts—Dara, Alata Chuko, and Boricha (**Figure 9**) there were some initiatives of "School Feeding" in some primary schools of the districts from the consortium of civic organizations and government to fill the food supply gaps of the households to their school children for which the FGD participants were very happy.

For its contribution to reduce school dropout rates and increasing better learning motivation of the children at the school, the "the School feeding" program was also recognized by the school directors and CEOs of the districts who were my key informants. Remarkably, from the report of year ended 2018 of ESDA, its program has contributed to 36% reduction of dropout rate while at the same time facilitated for better learning. However, both FGD participants and KIIs from the rest of two

#### **Figure 9.**

*School feeding at Alawo Arfe Primary School under the supply of Ebenezer Supporting and Development Association (ESDA) in Boricha district in 2018. Source: ESDA.*

### *The Nature, Causes, Effects and Mitigation of Climate Change on the Environment*

**Figure 10.** *Education dimension of climate change impacts on human capital. Source: Survey 2019.*

districts—Falka of Lokka Abayya and Rukessa Sukke of Hawassa Zuria—claim that there was no such kind of "School Feeding" interventions over their districts.

Linked to this, it was learnt from other key informant from the administrative zone level that the said program was not launched formally at the zone level and what was observed at two district level was that a pilot works for further implementation to which the informant was not sure. On the other hand, 66% of the household believed that children drop the school for health impairment attributed to heat stress and climate related morbidities (**Table 6**). Further, as the same table portrays, 76% of the respondent believed that student failed standard test at the end because in one or another way of poor nutrition at the early age; poor attendance and follow at the lower grades. This finding is in a line with what Park [35] reported that heat stress has a profound negative impact on both short and long term educational attainments and the impact increases with lower adaptive capacity of economically poor community. Indeed, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [6] Fifth Assessment and report predicted that climate-induced health and income shocks could in turn negatively affect educational outcomes if, for example, children experience poorer health and nutrition in early life, thereby impairing cognitive and physical development; if households are unable to pay school fees; or if children must participate in income generation activities during school ages.

All in all, climate change impact on education as explained through three above said components can be weighted as 36, 33, and 31%, respectively for failing for standard examination attributed to a roll over impacts of climate change; decreasing demand to education due to deteriorating purchasing power which as a consequence of crop failure and declining livestock and increasing dropout rate as a function of extreme heat stress and other health related complications (**Figure 10**).

#### **5. Conclusion**

Data collected from secondary source and primary sources revealed that there is climate change that is defined through increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall over the study area. This change has brought about various impacts on rural community. Human capital (health and education) is one of livelihood dimensions that climate change has brought about negative impacts. To this end, the impact is 47% (**Figure 11**) for human health assessed through three sub-components (climate change impact driven diseases (physiological inconvenience (17%); prevalence of diseases (16%); and malnutrition (14%)) that are tracked in to in to one (health impact). On the other hand, the impact of climate change is 53% (**Figure 11**) for

*Climate Change in Ethiopia: Implication on Human Capital in Rural Community - Case Study… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.98993*

**Figure 11.** *Climate change impacts on health and education.*

education assessed through other three sub-components (fail in standard exam attributed to a roll over impacts of climate change since early child hood (19%); increasing dropout rate (17%); and decreasing demand to education mainly owing to diminish in agricultural yield (17%)).

The latter is more linked to decrease in livestock and crop yields which are principal components and only the source of income for most of the households.

This diminution on the agricultural output resulted in to decline in food supply; diminish on their purchasing power (demand) of the households. Consequently, these households had not able to afford for education and education facilities of their children who either could not enroll to the school; or could not attend regularly; or drop it amid or fail to standard examinations of local and regional levels.

Thus, negative impact of climate change on human capital which is 53% for education and 47% for health implies, other things remain constant, that deteriorating future adaptive capacity of the rural community.

Data from survey and PRA also revealed that harmers in rural settings tried to cope up with and adapt climate change impacts on their health. It was also observed that there were some efforts of philanthropic and government organizations in supporting these endeavors the farmers. It was learnt these copying mechanism farmers practiced did contribute to save would be died lives. Nevertheless, it was also witnessed that some of these practices had led to unintended negative effects such as reinforcing interethnic; encouraging dependency syndrome and forcing children to drop the school.

Therefore, interventionists should plan to intervene before onset of climate change led crisis so as to reduce further mushrooming socio-economic problems during and crisis aftermaths.
