**3. Energy profile and transitions**

SDG 7 obligates member states to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all. The Government of Uganda recognizes that energy is catalytic to economic and social development and that there is a direct relationship between per capita consumption of electricity to GDP and overall prosperity [16]. Recognizing, the link between energy and development, the Uganda Vision 2040 and NDP III (2020/21–2014/15) recognizes the critical role of electricity in the attainment of their key development priorities of economic growth, job creation and inclusive development. However, although Uganda is rich in energy resources, access to affordable, reliable electricity remains a major constraint to the country's socio-economic transformation and achievement of sustainable development. The energy resources potentials include renewables such as hydropower, biomass, solar, wind and geothermal, but also fossil fuels such as peat, and oil and gas, and these resources and are fairly distributed throughout the country.

Uganda has one of Sub-Saharan Africa's largest hydroelectric potential estimated to be well over 4,500 MW [2, 17] with a big portion of this potential lying along the Nile River, which increases dependency on the Nile. Renewable energy resource potential, estimated to be well over 7,500 MW, includes hydro, geothermal (450 MW), biomass cogeneration (1,650 MW), wind and peat (300 MW), as well as 460 million tons of biomass standing stock with a sustainable annual yield of 50 million tons, and an average of 5.1 kWh/m2 of solar energy [2, 17, 18]. As at 2019, the country's energy mix was dominated by biomass energy (88%) consumed mainly through firewood and charcoal, electricity (2%) and oil or fossil fuels at 10% [19], and energy consumption has been on rise over the years (see **Figure 2**).

The dominance of biomass energy in the country's energy mix remains socioeconomic and environment challenge; hindering socio-economic transformation, a source of indoor air population with the associated health challenges, a driver to increased deforestation and forest degradation and a source of GHG emissions. However, limited availability of alternative affordable clean energy sources for cooking means that biomass will remain Uganda's most important source of cooking energy in the foreseeable future. Currently, Uganda depends on imported

*The Energy and Climate Change Nexus in Uganda: Policy Challenges and Opportunities… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.99353*

**Figure 2.**

*The trends of contribution main energy by type (data sourced from MEMD and ERA 2010–2019).*

oil/petroleum with the annual imports of petroleum products having increasing over the years e.g. from 1.4 billion liters in 2014 to 2.1 billion in 2018 [10]. Transport consumes 90% of the imported petroleum products, while 6% is consumed as kerosene in households consumes mainly for lighting [19].

Uganda depends on hydropower for its electricity accounting for more 80% of the country's electricity supply, the other sources being thermal (8%), cogeneration (8%) and solar (4%). The grid installed electricity generation capacity has been increasing over the years from 183 MW in 1997 to 1,246 MW in 2019, while the energy losses in the distribution segment have reduced from 34% in 2008 to 16.4 in 2019% [16, 20]. Construction of Uganda's largest power plant (the Karuma hydropower plant) with 600 MW installed capacity is ongoing and could be commissioned by the end of 2021 or early 2022, and together with other small hydroelectricity plants that are under construction will increase the country's grid electricity generation to approx. 2,000 MW by 2025. However, the country's sustainable energy transition is still being hindered by the government's emphasis on large-scale hydroelectricity over other renewables [11], even when it is known that hydro-electricity is highly climate sensitive. Some interest in decentralized renewables exists, including solar and bioenergy, but they have not attracted the required state attention, and of late government attention is rather shifting to tap into oil and gas development for domestic power generation in the near future.

Nearly all the electricity generated in Uganda is consumed domestically, with households consuming the largest amount (61%), followed by commercial (14%), transport (13%), industry (8%), and others including export consuming only 4%. But then even at household level, the use of electricity is limited to lighting due to the high tariffs and for most households, charcoal and firewood remain the most accessible and affordable sources of energy for cooking. While there has been general increase in energy consumption in all the main sectors of economy over the last decade (see **Figure 3**), consumption of electricity in the industrial and commercial sectors remains low due to the low levels of industrialization, urbanization and overall economic development in the country.

Energy poverty is as electricity access remain low in Uganda with connectivity at only 28%, [21], which far lower than Sub-Saharan Africa average of 45% in 2017 [22]. In addition, electricity consumption per capita is approx. 100kWh [19], which is one of the lowest in the world. Besides the high costs of electricity, coupled with unreliable supply contribute to overdependence on biomass energy for cooking and the high cost of doing business which reduces the country's competitiveness [23].

#### **Figure 3.**

*Trends in energy consumption by sector (data sourced from UBOS 2010–2019; and MEMD, 2015–2020).*

This makes it more than urgent for the country to increase access to modern energy in rural and urban so as to reduce deforestation, stimulate the growth of economies, and promote green and resilient development.

The government's target is to increase electricity connections to 60% by 2025 and 80% access to modern energy by 2040 [2]. An estimated US\$1.6bn capital investment will required to meet the present plan of 60% electrification [16]. With the Uganda Vision 2040 foreseeing a country developing at a high to achieving an upper MIC status by 2040, Uganda will need much more modern energy with the energy demand is likely to outstrip the supply by 2030. By 2040, energy demand (including energy to propel industrial and commercial sectors) could reach 41,738 MW and capita electricity consumption could increase from the current 100 KWh to 3,668 kWh, indicating that therefore there is still a lot to be done in the energy sector.

### **4. Climate vulnerabilities of energy systems and adaptation**

Uganda's climate is changing: temperatures are rising, rainfall is becoming more variable, and extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and severity. Between 1900 and 2010 temperatures in Uganda increased by 0.8°C - 1.5°C and are projected to increase by between 2-5O by 2100 and rainfall received in 2000–2010 was on average about 8% lower than rainfall received between 1920 and 1969rainfall was observed to be variable [24, 25]. Melting of the ice caps on Mt. Rwenzori, increased occurrence of droughts, rainstorms and flooding and landslides have been observed in the last three decades.

Drought and rising temperatures affect biomass availability, causing gradual drying up of biomass which will increasing hardship for the majority of Ugandan's who are dependent on wood fuel for their domestic energy needs. During extreme wet seasons, access to firewood is limited because of the reduction in the amount of available dry firewood, and the dangers associated with fetching firewood in such conditions. The scarcity and increasing prices of firewood greatly affects poor rural households that largely depend on biomass energy as they move long distances to collect firewood, a process that disproportionately affects women and girls exposing them to gender based sexual violence (GBSV), including sexual assault, rape and defilement. The projected change in climate means that droughts will occur which will increase scarcity of biomass. Even without climate change, the unmet demand for biomass energy will become extreme by 2050, estimated

#### *The Energy and Climate Change Nexus in Uganda: Policy Challenges and Opportunities… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.99353*

at 1,710 million tonnes over the period 2010–2050, and climate change will add a plausible loss of 5 to 10% of domestic wood between 2020 and 2050, which could increase the costs of inaction from US\$123.6 bn to between US\$130 bn and 136 bn [6]. Therefore, the current growth in demand for biomass is not sustainable and a sustainable solution is needed to address the predicted deficit [5]. Besides, the reliance on biomass energy is a major driver to widespread deforestation and land degradation across the country. Uganda's forest cover reduced from 24% percent in the 1990s to a mere to 12.4% currently, a two percent annual loss of forest cover, which is among the world's highest forest cover losses, driven by among others by increased demand for fire wood and charcoal, but also by expansion of farming and urban centres into forest land. But deforestation and forest degradation also results catchment degradation that indirectly affects hydro-electricity generation. i.e. it is a driver to soil erosion, run-off and flooding in the catchments which lead to siltation and sedimentation of lakes and rivers that in turn reduces water availability for hydro-power generation.

The impacts of climate change also significantly affect electricity supply. The Stern Report posits that that a 3-6°C increase in temperature in the next few years could result in a 30–50% water reduction [26] and this could disrupt hydro energy supply, alter energy demand patterns but also damage energy infrastructure [27]. With Uganda's temperature projected to increase by 2-5OC by 2100, the effect on energy will be significant, and indeed the functioning of electricity supply systems is already being adversely affected by the rising temperatures, increased rainfall variability, drought and flooding [28]. Hydro electricity generation, on which Uganda highly depends, is the most affected as droughts and higher temperatures often reduce water in lakes and rivers causing a reduction in electricity generation. For example, persistent droughts have in the past reduced water levels in Lake Victoria affecting hydropower generation at the Nalubale electric power generation dam in Jinja [29]. Electricity generation at hydro-power plant on Mpanga river in Western Uganda significantly declines during prolonged dry seasons or droughts [6]. A study conducted by MWE with support from the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) predicts a reduction in rainfall that could reduce Uganda hydropower potential by about 26% by 2050 [5].

In **Figure 4**, the possible the impact of climate change on electricity generation is illustrated further. The loss in hydro electricity production is due to reduced runoff, a scenario where a drop in available capacity is between 0% in 2025 and 26% in 2050 [5]. The loss would be met by increasing generation through nuclear and renewables (geothermal and solar) where nuclear accounts for 95% of the difference of the reduced yield (35.4 TWh). However, global opposition to nuclear power generation is very high due to its environmental and political sensitivity, and besides nuclear power plants are very expensive to put up.

Besides, that is only part of the story as significant increase in rainfall amounts and intensity, and flooding as predicted could also seasonally increase water levels in lakes and rivers and also become barriers to energy generation. Between 2019 and 2020, the Lake Victoria basin received increased rainfall and run-off which increased the water level of Lake Vitoria to unprecedented levels, by 13.42 metres at Entebbe, which exceeded the 13.41 metres level recorded in 1964 [30]2 . This rise in water level created some challenges to electricity generation, with moving islands/ floating vegetation blocking water flow to the hydro power stations on the Nile in Jinja. According to Eskom, Uganda's major power generation company, on April 14, 2020 a floating island docked at the Nalubale power dam blocking water for power

<sup>2</sup> https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/bd820937c06845faa86f7f8944d56f47

#### **Figure 4.**

*Impact of climate change on electricity generation in TWh/yr. under the scenario of reduced runoff assuming high electricity demand with low supply capacity (DHSLWBC) vs. no impact of climate change (source [5]).*

generation causing a nationwide power blackout.3 However, Uganda's National Environment Management Authority (NEMA) also attributes the floating islands on the lake to environmental degradation in the lake basin. The old Maziba hydroelectric power station, in south western Uganda, was closed due persistent siltation that affected electricity generation and all these point to need to "climate-proof" the country's energy infrastructure.

Another major source of energy vulnerability is that the impacts of climate change disrupt the energy supply chain. The increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall storms and floods affect energy infrastructure - power plants, transmission lines and power lines - that disrupt energy supply resulting in power cuts and higher energy prices [31, 32]. Moreover, the heavy rains and flooding make road and rail transportation inaccessible. The disruption of rail and road transport indirectly affects energy supply, as fuel is typically imported into the country by train from the coast and distributed by trucks [23].

Adaptation to climate change for energy sector should that focus significantly reducing dependence on traditional biomass. A biomass supply deficit is already being experienced, with prices of charcoal rising each passing day, and indeed supply will not meet demand in the future even without climate change. It is also important to ensure the efficiency gains in biomass use (e.g. efficient cook stoves) are increased, and diversifying energy sources and promoting renewable energy that transition into more households switch to LPG, biogas, and electricity. It is critical to increase electricity connectivity, affordability, and reliability and de-risking the use of LPGs through tax incentives and supply in rural areas. The adaptation cost for replacing lost biomass is estimated at between \$5 and \$11 bn over the period 2020–2050 at a 10 percent discount rate [5].

The best use of hydropower needs careful management of the water resources and thus catchment management is also important. Afforestation and reforestation measures to protect watersheds that supply major hydroelectricity generating sources should be a key part of such protection, and Uganda is promoting

<sup>3</sup> Eskom Uganda Limited. Press Release. April 16, 2020.

*The Energy and Climate Change Nexus in Uganda: Policy Challenges and Opportunities… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.99353*

catchment-based water resource management, and the country is divided into 17 catchments, for which catchment management plans are prepared to address the issues affecting water and other related resources (forests, biodiversity, wetlands, soils etc.) that could among others ensure sustained water availability for electricity generation.

Above all, coping with extreme events requires strengthening the structures of small dams to withstand increase in rainfall intensity or reduced water levels.

But still, Uganda government's preference for large hydro-power projects in areas of rich ecosystems and biodiversity, and eco-tourism sites is an environmental controversy, given the dependence on hydropower on natural systems (climate and water availability). The ongoing construction of Karuma hydro-electricity dam/station and the proposal to construction another hydro-electricity dam on Murchison Falls (and adjacent Uhuru Falls), all projects in Murchison Falls National Park, a protected area with rich biodiversity and eco-tourism potential is are cases in point. These energy projects remain controversial given that Uganda is not lacking alternative renewable energy resources – solar and geothermal potential is very high and there are many other alternative sites for hydro-electricity development. The larger questions are the levels of Uganda government's assessment of the 'economic benefits' versus 'environmental costs' of its energy development model. Besides, the dams on the Nile remain insecure to current and future climate risk i.e. fluctuating water levels and extreme weather events. But also, the Nile is a transboundary resource and water governance and security concerns are hot topic of debate and a potential source conflict in the Nile basin countries, especially with downstream neighbors (Sudan and Egypt), putting Uganda's dams at future risk of reduced flow.
