*2.4.4 Calculation of estimated carbon reduction if solar panels were installed at household irrigation wells, with 50–200 m small factories for electricity purposes in South Syria*

Primary data mapping conducted for South Syria—which targeted wells showed that in total, there were 69 wells with almost the same depth and capacity specifications. Thirty out of 69 wells were rehabilitated by solar panels; the calculation assumed that the average carbon reduction of the 30 wells can give an overall indication of how much—in total—the carbon reduction in South Syria governorates per year will be and prevented pollution that occurs when using diesel.

A total of **552,238.05** tonnes of CO2 could be reduced by the rehabilitation of 69 wells in South Syrian governorates.

Correspondingly, a total of **291,520,320** tonnes can be reduced by the rehabilitation of 47 factories/ small workshops that were potentially mapped in South Syrian governorates in May 2018.

This means that there is an obvious carbon reduction from such solar panel initiatives with a total of **843,758.37** tonnes of CO2, from both irrigation wells and small factories, in two of the South Syrian governorates. Particularly, the government of Syria can save up to **843,758.37** tonnes of carbon per radiation year (312 days) and can have opportunity to trade this carbon market globally.

*Transformation Action to Combat Desertification: A Direct Carbon Saving Mechanism… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.101462*

Currently, this amount of carbon reduction does not take into account the life cycle cost of solar panel, as mentioned in Section 2.4.3. However, it must be noted that this approximation is speculative and needs thorough calculations of the energy inputs and emission outputs, throughout the whole production chain of solar panels, including its transportation and installation process.

Arguably, most research harmonizes the life cycle GHG emission from PV solar panels materials, in order to determine the average emission intensity. Production stage is significantly contributing with 30 percent of the total of GHG emission [22]. Hence, some research did not take into account the end cycle—such as recycling the system, which is contributing with 4 percent of the total GHG emission [29].

According to the report published by the World Nuclear Association in 2011 [30]—on the Comparison of Lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of various electricity generation sources, the range between different studies for solar panels is 85 tonnes CO2e/Kwh, which specified that the manufacturing process is becoming more efficient compared to other sources of renewable energy.

Therefore, if the approximate 30 percent of the total carbon from solar panel lifecycle is considered, then it should be deducted from the first year of installation. Finally, the actual carbon saved from the solar panel initiative in South Syria will be calculated as below:

834,758.37 30 percent 253,127.51 tonnes of × = *CO*<sup>2</sup>

Carbon saving for year is 834,758.37 253,1 = − 27.51

Based on the result, this initiative will save a total of **590,630.86 tonnes of CO2**, which can be traded in year one. Starting from year 2, it will approximately be a total of **834,758.37 tonnes of CO2**.

### **2.5 Potential impacts on transboundary water resources between Jordan and Syria**

Both Syria and Jordan rely on different water sources to generate renewable energy. Precisely, the Yarmouk river basin is shared by both Jordan and Syria, and both of them receive energy from the Unity Dam [31]. With the decrease in precipitation and overall water levels, the dependency on hydroelectricity needs to shifted [32]. According to the Millennium Development Goals Report in 2014, water is becoming a scarcer resource in the region and is overall becoming a less reliable resource. This means that there will be a decrease in hydroelectricity coming from the dam, along with other water resources in the region [5]. This necessitates the need to find a new power resource [33].

Some of the main tools developed for this research are the focus group discussion (FGD) and the key informant interviews (KIIs). Due to the limitation and constrains during the data collection from South governorates in Syria, one FGD was conducted with the farmers group, and two KIIs were conducted with water engineers—who used to support the WASH4 sector's actors in South Syrian governorates. On the other side of the Yarmouk basin—in Jordan, four KIIs were

<sup>4</sup> Water, Sanitation and Hygiene is the focus of the first two targets of the Sustainable Development Goal 6 – targets 6.1 and 6.2 aim at equitable and accessible water and sanitation for all. "Access to WASH" includes safe water, adequate sanitation and hygiene education.

conducted with related decision makers on water basin management, as well as wash cluster members, who used to support the people in need and the displaced people in South Syria with WASH assistance, such as sanitation, hygiene, and water access.

KIIs respondents mentioned that the wash assistance was focused on providing solar panels for households or villages, in order to support their access to water. Therefore, most actors need to consider the safety issues associated with arrays, and also need to have a clear discussion with the targeted communities before the confirmation of solar sites, and management of their operational modalities. Involving them will ensure the ownership, thereby, decreasing the likelihood of damage or theft of installation.

Most respondents from FGD and KIIs complained about the cost recovery practice that was introduced by different WASH actors. They complained about the inability of beneficiaries to afford the cost of the system's maintenance, due to their low land productivity, and the malfunction of surrounding market. However, they were interested in having cash vouchers or start-up kits to support the operation and maintenance of the system in the first 3 months, along with intensive capacity building on system operation and maintenance so that the communities will manage to run it efficiency and effectively.

Interestingly, all respondents believe that using solar panels is the most viable and appropriate solution for their water pumping. Respondents believe that using this system at the level of school and health care facilities will minimize electricity shortages. Hence, ensuring the working hours for these services are sufficiently increased, to support their communities. Unfortunately, although the drought seasons were mentioned by the respondents, no one linked using the solar panels of the potential mitigation activity to the impact of climate change on their country; this emphasizes the need to raise the communities' awareness on the biggest threat on their livelihoods assets, which is climate change. Moreover, there is an urgent need to bridge the gap between humanitarian aids - resilience and development activities to plan, monitor and track the different interventions to design and DO NO HARM to social and environmental interventions.

In Jordan, the other side of the Yarmouk basin has a different perspective on using the renewable energy technologies for communities that live in the basin areas. Jordan and Syria have a long history of nonsatisfaction on several treaties over the years, prior to the conflict in Syria. Both countries are facing drought, where the average precipitation dropped significantly [34, 35].

The main concern of the Ministry of Water and Irrigation is losing control of the measurement of the water table and flow, which will occur if such solar panel system becomes widely used in Syria. The ministry considered the electricity bill as the only enforcement measure that can control the illegal and over pumping of Yarmouk ground water. As a result, the Jordanian enforce limitations on trade the solar panels' items, with aims to control the flow level of water in their catchment areas as much as possible.

Additionally, the Ministry of Agriculture restricted the trade of seeds or seedlings for two reasons: The first is to avoid deficiency of native seeds in Jordan, such as wheat and barley, that already differ from the ones used to plant in Syria. The second reason is to avoid planting around drainage area, thus avoiding the low water table, changes in the land use in catchment areas, and water allocations to Jordan.

What also contributed to this problem was the agricultural lands inside of Syria, which led to decreases in the level of water, and increases in the level of salt by digging local wells [36]. This calls for both governments in Syria and Jordan to

*Transformation Action to Combat Desertification: A Direct Carbon Saving Mechanism… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.101462*

approach a more diplomatic way of ensuring the effective transboundary water management, by addressing the political and hydrological conditions of the basin [37].

WASH actors are also facing challenges in managing the water resources and needs in south governorates of Syria. The Syrian Human Needs Overview 2017 [26] identifies 14.9 million people in urgent need of support with WASH, in addition to the extensive needs across the sub-sectors of water in order to move toward increasing the resilience of affected population and ensure the sustainable access to safe water.

The main challenges facing the WASH actors are the inefficiency of piped water networks, which have been damaged, destroyed, or non-operational due to the lack of power and/or fuel. The 2017 WASH assessment conducted by the cluster members highlighted that the water networks currently operate at less than 20 percent of its real capacity. This added an extra burden on communities, mainly women and girls, due to the spending of more time in collecting and saving water during the day.

The Syrian communities recognize the importance of water resources and its safety; the cost of the fuel and irrigation systems is very high compared to the average monthly income. Most of the community members, mainly the medium or small businesses, cannot afford the high cost of fuel, which led to the nonfunctional Syrian market.

In 2018, the WASH and food Security clusters proposed multiple responses to provide multi-sectorial assistance to vulnerable people. The clusters' members highlighted that farmers and herders started complaining about the drought seasons—mainly the limited grazing lands—due to the highly displaced movement in south Syria governorates, and also the conflict which changed the access to land and water. This indicates that multi-clusters must address the potential impact of climate change, and include the environmental measures in their mandate and interventions, to ensure food security and reduce negative coping strategies for the affected communities in South Syria.

#### **3. Research discussion**

Renewable energy advanced rapidly in 2017 with the highest growth rate according to the Global Energy and CO2 status report [38]. Solar panel technology is one of the green technologies that prove its efficiency among other technologies, such as wind, hydroelectric, nuclear, and biomass [30]. Although the improvement in global efficiency decreased to 1.7 percent in 2017 compared to 2.0 percent in 2016, the Arab countries recorded a 55 percent improvement in energy efficiency, whereas it was 35 percent in 2015 [39]. However, the demand of electricity and transportation is increasing due to higher temperatures [40], which will burden the energy efficiency performance especially with the conflict and political instability in the region [41].

In comparison, 99 percent of the total installed capacity in Yemen are from fossil fuels, according to the Country Profile Energy Efficiency in Yemen 2012. About 40 percent of the total population still remains without electricity [42]. About 2 percent of the total installed energy capacity in Yemen is from renewable energy, reflected in 22 Million Mt. of CO2 emission from the consumption of energy [14]. This is less than in Iraq, of 137 Million Mt. of CO2 emission—from consumption of energy—compared to 87.3 percent of total installed energy capacity, which are from fossil fuels and 0 percent from renewable energy.

Prior to the conflict in Syria, two renewable energy master plans were developed in 2002 covered 10 years aimed at maximizing the use of renewable energy to increase the contribution of the in grid connected electricity generated, in order to reduce gas consumption [43]. The 2010–2030 scenarios of the Syrian master plans for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy projects prioritized solar energy for replacing fossil fuel in households, industry, and service sectors; it showed that 22 Mtoe5 of conventional fuels will be substituted by using renewable energy. Therefore, 97 Mtoe of total energy will be saved.

However, due to the drop of the energy intensities in 2009, instability, and the lack of political commitment, the master plans failed to be implemented [44]. In view of these proposed scenarios, the research argument reveals that solar energy can be a smart source of electricity and support the country's master plan to increase the energy demand from renewable energy from 0 to 4.31 percent by 2030 [43].

Numerical validation of greenhouse gas emitted from using the renewable energy at household's level or small scale of enterprises to mitigate the climate change impact and can lead to strengthen communities' resilience need to be calculated. Evidently, the simplified approach that was adopted to calculate the data available presented that more than 12 percent adapted sufficient coping mechanisms, between families who installed solar panel and families that did not. In addition, between 25.8 –and 40.4 percent improved their savings. As for factories' owners, approximately 53 percent were able to profit from installing solar panel systems to operate their factories.

Monetarily, the average August 2018 carbon price, according to the carbon emission future price (*https://www.investing.com/commodities/carbon-emissions*), is approximately 19.30USD per 1 tonne of CO2. This means that the Syrian government can trade the carbon and get:

590,630.86 tonnes of X 19.30 11,399,175.5 *CO USD* <sup>2</sup> = *USD*

in year after deducting the life cycle emi *one GHG* ssion

While the actual trading starting from year 2 will 16,284,536.54 / year *be USD*

If the lifetime for the solar panels of 30 years is considered, this means that over the 30 years of horizon, the Syrian government can trade with a total of **472,251,559.59 USD** at country level from two south governorates, keeping in mind that the calculations were done after deducting the production cost of the solar panel for the first year.

Having the recent conflict in Syria, the demand and price of electricity doubled, and increased by five times for Industrial and commercial tariffs, during the conflict years between 2014 and 2017, according to the recent Global Energy and CO2 status report. Presently, based on the analysis, it is projected that each household with an irrigated well that uses an average of 16.03 Kwh per day can trade money with **154,466.56 USD** annually as out grid source. Likewise, the factories with average of 12.425 Kwh per day can trade with roughly **119,709,408 USD** annually. Therefore, as the economic burdens deepen with the recent conflict in Syria, communities increasingly adopt negative coping mechanisms, which pose protection risks, such as child labor or early marriage [12].

Such initiative can support the communities' resilience capacity and reduce the negative coping mechanisms, which are shown for families who installed solar

<sup>5</sup> Millions of tonnes of oil equivalent.

#### *Transformation Action to Combat Desertification: A Direct Carbon Saving Mechanism… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.101462*

panel systems. For example, The International Organization for Immigration in Yemen reduced 400 tonnes of carbon emissions every year, and saved 121,000USD as a result of using solar energy projects, other countries have installed solar energy projects to serve water scarcity, which are a result of internal and external conflicts. For instance, Iraq started to recover from war and is now operating its main streets by solar powered lamps—around six thousand solar lamps light up the street in Baghdad. Moreover, Iraq is looking to subsidize solar panels through carbon trading, but still needs to establish internal resolutions and laws to promote and allow the trading of carbon [45].

The recent studies done by Intelligence 2017 highlighted that due to the instability, the energy revenue declined in Syria leading to high fuel costs and fluctuation in Syrian currency [46]. The primary data demonstrated such impacts on the communities' coping strategy, electricity costs, and industrial activities, to support the currency in the market. The purposive sample showed insights on potential solutions to such declines. For instance, the productivity level of targeted rehabilitated factories increased by 37 percent, which ensured the availability of their products in the market. Communities living around these factories expressed their satisfaction on availability of items during the week, compared to the usual demand and increased number of displaced folks, from time to time during the recent conflict in the south governorates. In contrast, a total of 8878.76 Kwh/year out of electricity grid can be produced from a small sample of HH and factories, which was intended to be much more, if applied to the whole HHs and small factories or workshops in south governorates.

On the other hand, the changes at the political border level between Syria and Jordan showed the over abstraction variated on water-related records [47]. The two countries should review their agreements on including the impact of climate change on water flow, and to ensure the role and impact of communities' activities and behaviors on transboundary villages [48].

Interestingly, the effect of using renewable energy, such as solar panels at a small scale of households and factories, would have a remarkable impact on the national footprint, eventually mitigating the impact of climate change on the environment [49].
