*The Impact of Global Warming and Climate Change on the Development of Agriculture… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.99392*

Fluctuations in the production and supply of grain in the grain market caused by climate change strongly affect grain prices.

The food security of the Russian Federation [5, 7] in the long term largely depends not only on the readiness of agricultural systems to adapt to extreme climatic and weather events but also on the ability to adapt to these changes in the rest of the agro-industrial complex - logistics, agricultural processing and food consumption, as well as the social-economic sphere of the regions and the country as a whole.

In conclusion, the global community recognizes that climate change will make it challenging to produce enough food for the world's growing population and alter water resources' availability, quality, and mode of use. Avoiding over-intrusions into already stressed ecosystems will require countries to double the current rate of agricultural productivity growth while minimizing agricultural-related harm to the environment. This productivity will require the deliberate application of new or pre-existing technologies and practices, the development of crop varieties resistant to climatic shocks, the diversification of rural livelihoods, improved forest and fisheries management, investment in information technology and systems, and the active use of emerging computer technologies such as precision farming, GIS, etc.

International organizations including FAO [6], the International Food Policy Research Institute - IFPRI, the World Bank and others have developed recommendations for adapting world agriculture to global climate change.

Addressing this major challenge requires joint efforts and actions by all countries to effectively implement measures to mitigate climate change effects on agriculture and adapt the world food system.

The level of food security of the Northern regions of Russia depends on the local production of agricultural products and their regular import from favorable areas. And, in this regard, we have considered food security based on the gross harvest of the above indicators in the regions of the North [8].

The table shows that it is practically impossible to grow wheat (winter and spring) in the northern latitudes. Winter wheat is produced only in two subjects of the Federation out of 12 regions that we selected for the study (**Table 2**). According to the data, during the reporting period, winter wheat cultivation in the Tyumen region decreased by 38.04 thousand centners (or 24.9%), while in spring wheat, it decreased by 1037.2 thousand centners (or 11.6%). On the contrary, there has been a 15.6% increase in wheat yields in Russia's North.

The status of the Doctrine [7] indicator "potatoes" is more favorable than that of wheat. Potatoes are grown in 11 out of 12 regions. In the Krasnoyarsk region as a whole, potato self-sufficiency (6.182.97 thousand quintals) is high per capita (0.6 kilograms per day), i.e., exceeds 2.5 times the dietary standards. Still, in 2 autonomous Districts (Taimyr (Dolgano-Nenetskiy) and Evenk), potatoes are not grown due to difficult climate conditions and specific arctic [8]. Potatoes in these districts are not a staple food, unlike in Russia as a whole. In the other constituent entities of the Federation, potatoes are grown, albeit in small quantities. For example, in 3 regions (Yamalo-Nenetskiy Autonomous District, Magadan region, Chukotskiy Autonomous District), self-sufficiency in "potatoes" is low and equals less than 0.1% of the total in Russia. The Tyumen region (without districts), just as in wheat, shows a decrease in the gross output of potatoes by 1,031.79 thousand quintals. There is also an insignificant reduction in the gross harvest in 3 regions - the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the Magadan region and Chukotskiy Autonomous District. Three federal subjects (Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Area, Yamalo-Nenetskiy Autonomous Area, Kamchatka region) show increased potato cultivation. Still, only one part, Yugra, shows a significant growth rate of 140.84 thousand quintals.

*The Impact of Global Warming and Climate Change on the Development of Agriculture… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.99392*


*\*The entire Krasnoyarsk region, as no wheat is grown in the Taimyr (Dolgano-Nenetskiy Autonomous District) and Evenk Autonomous Districts.*

#### **Table 2.**

*Gross harvest of wheat (winter and spring) in farms of all categories in the northern regions of the Russian Federation for the period 2017–2020 [5].*

During the study period, potato yields increased from 24.5% in the Murmansk region to 104.1% in the Komi Republic. Therefore, self-sufficiency in the potato indicator in these regions is high.

The third Doctrine [7] indicator is "vegetables and gourds". These crops are more thermophilic than potatoes and are practically not intended for growing in the permafrost zone. Therefore, their cultivation rate is meager in this macro-region. The histogram (**Figure 1**) shows this clearly.

Despite the climatic conditions, the regions of Russia's northern latitudes are looking for opportunities to grow vegetables and gourds food crops. But the yield of the crops grown is low enough for the body to obtain all the vitamins it needs.

Melon crops are not grown in all regions of the northern latitudes due to the incompatibility of these crops' physiological and morphological characteristics and the difficult climatic conditions of the North. Thus, in 2020, according to federal statistics and the histogram, only three areas found it possible to supply themselves with minimal amounts of melon food crops, such as the Krasnoyarsk region (the entire region), the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the Tyumen region (without districts) with a gross harvest of 3.56 thousand quintals, 3.04 thousand quintals and 0.17 thousand quintals respectively.

As for outdoor and indoor vegetables, small volumes of gross harvest are present in the regions of Northern Russia. But the values are so low that the histogram (**Figure 2**) does not show them. As a result, only two areas give a small visualization (Krasnoyarsk region at 1.543.02 thousand quintals and Tyumen region at 1.267.82 thousand quintals in 2020) (**Figure 5**).

The average harvest of outdoor and indoor vegetables in 2020 is recorded in three regions. For example, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) shows 263.63 thousand quintals, the Kamchatka region - 135.77 thousand quintals, and Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous District - 267.64 thousand quintals.

And the lowest indicators for the cultivation of outdoor and indoor vegetables in 2020 are represented by three subjects of the Federation (Magadan region (44.05 thousand quintals), Chukotskiy region (2.7 thousand quintals) and Yamalo-Nenetskiy Autonomous District (1.36 thousand quintals).

#### **Figure 4.**

*Gross harvest of vegetables and gourds in farms of all categories in the northern regions of the Russian Federation 2017–2020 [5]. \*The entire Krasnoyarsk region, as in the Taimyr (Dolgano-Nenetskiy Autonomous District) and Evenk Autonomous Districts, no vegetables and melons are grown.*

#### **Figure 5.**

*Gross harvest of outdoor vegetables in farms of all categories in the northern regions of the Russian Federation 2017–2020 [5]. \*The entire Krasnoyarsk region, as in the Taimyr (Dolgano-Nenetskiy) and Evenk Autonomous Districts, no vegetables and melons are grown.*

*The Impact of Global Warming and Climate Change on the Development of Agriculture… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.99392*

The regions of the European North of Russia do not grow melons. But open field vegetables are grown in farms of all categories. The leader in growing vegetables among the European North of Russia regions is the Komi Republic in 2018 and 2020. The lowest yields are obtained in the Murmansk region due to the relatively small territory, climatic conditions and, of course, the specialization of the area itself. This region is an outpost of Russia in the North Seas.

Thus, we can conclude from this very Doctrine [7] indicator that man cannot change weather conditions in northern latitudes. Still, human engineering and technology of recent years show that it is possible to grow vegetable and food gourds even in extreme conditions. Besides, the facts recorded by meteorologists on global warming and climate change in northern latitudes over the past decades show that the sum of active temperatures (SAT) is observed more frequently than 35–50 years ago.

For example, in the Murmansk region over the last 35 years (**Figure 3**), there has been a significant upward trend in July temperatures from 15.2 °C in 1985 to 17.9 °C

**Figure 6.**

*Maximum air temperatures in Murmansk in July from 1985 to 2020.*

**Figure 7.** *Maximum air temperatures in Yakutsk in July from 1985 to 2020.*

in 2020, which of course, shortly could affect the cultivation of even more vegetable and food crops to increase food security (**Figure 6**).

Scientists observe the same trend in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) over 35 years (**Figure 4**). In July, the temperature increased from 24.3 °C in 1985 to 25.5 °C in 2020, indicating an increase in the Russian North's range (**Figure 7**).

The next Doctrine [7] indicator, "fruit and berries", also depends on the sum of the active temperatures in the northern latitudes of the macro-region. **Table 3** proves this. The availability of fruit and berry plantations, including strawberries, strawberries, raspberries, currants, gooseberries, and other berries, does exist. Still, the gross yield is insignificant to supply the population of this macro-region.

These tables indicate the possibility of developing crop production in the regions of the North of Russia. However, food availability by the Doctrine indicator "Fruits" is high only in two areas (Tyumen and Krasnoyarsk regions) relative to other regions of the North. And, even these values of 69.36 thousand quintals and 64.27 thousand quintals do not cover the needs of these regions in fruit. For example, according to Order No. 614 of 09.08.2016 of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, the norm for consumption of fruit and berries is 100 kg/year per capita. In the Krasnoyarsk region, fruit supplies are similar to those in the Tyumen Region. The per capita fruit deficit is 77.51 kg/per year per capita, without considering the increased consumption of fruits and vegetables for residents of the Far North by 15%. In other words, the current state of the gross fruit harvest is insufficient for the


#### **Table 3.**

*Gross potato harvest in farms of all categories in the northern regions of the Russian Federation for the period 2017–2020 [5].*

*The Impact of Global Warming and Climate Change on the Development of Agriculture… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.99392*

self-sufficiency of the population of this region, let alone other territories of the Russian North.

As for fruit supply in Krasnoyarsk Region, the situation is similar to that in Tyumen Region. The per capita fruit deficit is 77.51 kg per year, and this does not include the 15% increased norms of fruit and vegetable consumption for residents of the Far North (**Table 4**).


*\*The entire Krasnoyarsk region, as in the Taimyr (Dolgano-Nenetskiy) and Evenki Autonomous Districts, no vegetables or melons are grown.*

#### **Table 4.**

*Gross harvest of fruit and berries in farms of all categories in the northern regions of the Russian Federation for the period 2017–2020 [5].*

For the Doctrine [7] indicator "berries", the situation, according to the table, is more optimistic, as there is no deficit in this position. Still, there is an oversupply of these crops per capita per year. For example, Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous District - Yugra shows 42 kg/year per capita against the consumption norm of 7 kg/year per capita (not including the increase of consumption norm by 15% inhabitants of the Far North). Three other regions exceed the consumption norms: Tyumen region (without districts), Krasnoyarsk region (the entire region) and Kamchatka region.

We found that the gross berry harvest in four regions of the North of Russia (Yamalo-Nenetskiy Autonomous District, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Magadan region, Chukotskiy Autonomous District) is lower than the average Russian consumption rate.

The growth rate for 2017–2020 in the regions of the European North for fruit and berry plantations and berries shows a steady increase in yield as these regions have significant stocks of non-timber products, which are in demand both domestically and internationally. Therefore, this area of crop production needs to be developed and maintained. Furthermore, because of the change in air temperature by 2.7 °C in these regions, it can be said that the growing season increases in days and, accordingly, some crops can adapt to the weather and climatic conditions of the North.

#### **4. Discussion**

There is considerable uncertainty in quantifying how climate change is expected to play out in the future and its impact on ecosystems, economic activity, and social processes in different countries and regions.

Studies on the impact of climate change on the economies of world regions and individual countries (including agriculture) have been carried out by various international organizations and national research centres. For example, the World Bank's Economics of adaptation to climate change synthesis report (2010) estimates that the costs of adapting to 2-degree global warming between 2020 and 2050 are in the range of \$70 billion to \$100 billion a year, depending on future climate change scenarios.

The same report notes that in addition to the financial costs of adapting the world's regions to climate change, the prices of mitigating the negative impacts on developing economies will rise, totaling US\$265 billion to US\$565 billion [4]. As a result, the cost of mitigating the effects of climate change would increase to a total of US\$265 billion to US\$565 billion [4].

It should be noted that even under constant climate conditions, as shown in the model studies, prices for the most critical crops will rise. By 2050, it is predicted that the cost of wheat could increase by 39%, rice by 62%, maize by 63% and soybean by 72%. Climate change will result in additional price increases: an average increase of 32–37% for rice, 52–55% for maize and 12–14% for soybeans, with the highest growth expected for wheat, ranging from 94 to 111% [4].

Adapting the food system to global climate change will require complex social, economic and biophysical adjustments to food production, processing and consumption. Such changes will be most difficult for the poorest and most vulnerable regions and populations. Furthermore, climate change modeling shows that the most severe impacts are likely to occur in the tropical drylands. Many of the poorest countries are located in these regions, so nations least able to adapt will be most affected.

Nevertheless, the food system is embedded in global processes and linked to other systems, which has both advantages and disadvantages. For example,

*The Impact of Global Warming and Climate Change on the Development of Agriculture… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.99392*

economic shocks in one geographic region may spread rapidly to others. Still, shocks due to sharp reductions in the food supply in one area may be offset by output from the other areas. The global food system also affects the efficiency of food production by allowing parts with advanced production systems to export to lagging regions [4].

A global problem of the scale of climate change requires coordinated efforts at the international level. However, its solution depends on the actions taken by each country in its territory. Primarily, it is a question of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere.
