**6. Forecasting natural gas consumption**

This research study investigates natural gas consumption forecasting using NNAR model (neural network autoregression). Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were hypothesized as a method to imitate the human brain and its functions while it performs cognitive tasks, or when it learns [15]. The forecasting was done using RStudio software. Two forecasts were made for the year 2021–2022. The first one was made using historical data up to January 2020 and the next one collected historical data of the year 2020 where the pandemic was ongoing. **Figure 6** shows the consumption forecast with a horizon of one year. It does not take pandemics into account (**Figure 7**).

**Figure 8** considers the pandemic.

For example, gas consumption by industry in the state of Alabama and Colorado are shown in **Figures 9** and **10**. The figure shows gas consumption for the years: 2018, 2019, 2020. It is clear that the first two years are essentially collinear with each other, making it possible to make a forecast of consumption for 2020. However, the

**Figure 6.** *U.S. natural gas consumption – Forecast including COVID-19.*

**Figure 7.** *U.S. natural gas consumption (2016–2020).*

onset of the pandemic introduced a structural change in the time series and resulted in lower industrial gas consumption. Such a structural change causes distortion and becomes a problem in accurate forecasting. In order to carry out a natural gas forecast for 2021, it is therefore necessary to take into account, the structural change that occurred in 2020. In addition, an analysis of the impact of COVID-19 morbidity and economic dynamics should also be carried out.

The chapter presents the use of neural networks for forecasting. The use of machine learning can perfectly be used to predict natural gas consumption [16]. They can also be used to discuss the link between the number of COVID-19 cases and natural gas consumption [17].

*Pandemic Problems Related to Forecasting Natural Gas Consumption DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.99276*

**Figure 8.** *U.S. natural gas consumption – Forecast without COVID-19.*

**Figure 9.** *Alabama natural gas industrial consumption (MMcf) in 2018–2020.*
