**1.4 The future of natural gas**

The world is hungry for energy. On the one hand, there is a need for cheap and increasing energy, on the other hand, fossil fuels are seeing more and more resistance, and the energy sector has started its transformation.

*"Industry discussions about the future of gas in North America are polarizing. On [the] one hand, the shale revolution keeps delivering, displacing liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports since the late 2000s, as abundant gas resources and technological innovation drove costs down... On the other hand, as state-level decarbonization policies ramp up, the demand for natural gas in key segments such as power generation and local distribution companies (LDC) is expected to decline"* [15].

Natural gas can bring supply and demand of electricity into balance, by fuelling dispatchable on-demand power generation (as huge energy storage devices are lacking). There will probably be more volatility in demand for that natural gas with an increasing share of wind power and photovoltaics, which are difficult to predict in their actual production and which cannot be tuned to demand. Also, it is not yet clear how fast and how effectively the gas industry can curb its fugitive methane emissions, and which policies different countries will enact.

In any case, we are on a path of decarbonization, and times have become unsecure for natural gas owners and industry incumbents. This is not a convenient situation, and energy-related investments are typically characterized by very long (several decades) investment times.

In the near future, we might see


What can be taken for granted, owners of natural gas will be more inclined to produce value-added materials from natural gas, rather than betting on their resource being continuously used as fuel in the next decades.

Also, owners of natural gas resources that have not yet been connected to the grid might turn towards materials production, as the corresponding production plants can be economic also at smaller scale than mere natural gas extraction for energy. Depending on the value of the products, units of 10,000 tons/year of materials or less can be viable. In the transition to the bioeconomy, biorefineries face the challenge of scalability. Larger scale translates into lower unit costs, however, at the same time, raw material transport over longer distances will increase the costs, so the optimum scale is narrower than with a natural-gas operated plant.

What's more, there has been a strong technology push for gas fermentation technology from biogas gasification (to synthesis gas), which generates technology spill-over potential for natural gas fermentation. Biogas production by anaerobic digestion of various substrates [18] is an established technology.

These 3 aspects make natural gas fermentation a highly attractive route for methane valorization.
