**Abstract**

All over the world, since ancient times, disabled people have always had worse health, education, economical participation, and higher poverty rate compared to non-disabled people. For disabled people to achieve better and more lasting prospects, these people must be empowered and seek to eliminate barriers that prevent them from participating and being included in the community, having access to quality education, finding decent work, and having their voices heard. In statistical terms, a useful alternative that can serve as support and monitoring of public policies in this area is to propose, for continuous use, the risk index called risk index for disabled people (long-term physical, hearing, intellectual, or sensory), which consists of evaluating which factors are associated with this risk, as well its intensity and direction of each of these factors, generating a final score that can be ordered or classified, according to non-disabled person probability became disabled person. In the Brazilian case, we propose the use of binary and ordinal logistic regression techniques to select the most significant factors using criteria such as AIC and BIC and calculate the risk probability for different disabilities (visual, hearing, physical, and intellectual) for the dataset. Sample composed of 20,800,804 respondents to the 2010 IBGE Census Complete Questionnaire.

**Keywords:** disabled people, disability risk, variable selection, model selection, stereotype ordinal logistic regression
