*4.2.2 Approach*

Bearing in mind *M1* and *M2*, an important step is determining precisely what information is of primary importance. What variables are of interest and what features are important?

Step 1: As argued in JR2017, step-like shifts in temperatures are a feature of the abrupt state transitions of *M2* rather than the smooth transitions of *M1*.

Step 2: Matching alternative hypotheses, including those represented by the objections, to appropriate statistical tests. Consideration of the implicit choices made.

