**3.2 Approaches to supply chain what if analysis: dependencies trees**

Considering the analyses and remediation plans structured to protect the SCC, it is possible to structure What If models oriented to predict the consequences linked to the lack of a supply.

In relation to the manpower issue, for example, it is possible to structure timeoriented models that consider the negative effects of the manpower.

The Domino Effect methodology applied to manpower aims to study and quantify the consequences of a negative event that causes a lack of personnel and/ or supply chain. The model is configured as a visualization of the propagation over time of the negative effects caused by the unavailability of a certain percentage of company personnel.

Such a predictive model can allow the decision maker to simulate different crisis scenarios resulting from the loss of personnel based on the formal organizational structure of the company. In order for the model to be effective, however, it will be essential to feed the model and the collection of information starting from the analysis of the organizational chart and the company function chart.

Information is needed that can be traced back to the following organizational areas:


The holistic evolution of this model consists in describing the interdependencies between different sectors starting from the simulation of a disservice concerning a sector. The generic example below can be applied to a single reality in order to understand what long-term effects the lack of manpower, considered as a distinguished sector, could have on the operational continuity of the organization itself (**Figure 2**).

The severity of the dependency corresponds to the extent to which the Quality of Service (QoS) perceived by the user is deteriorated. Depending on the item, the degradation can be measured by the variation of some specific parameters (coverage, signal reception, delivery time, etc.) with respect to the normal QoS values. In general, the measures that allow to characterize the QoS can be traced back to the general concepts of availability and capacity: the quality with which the service is

**Figure 2.**

*Manpower cascading effect on organizational areas.*

provided can be described by quantifying the quantity of items provided in comparison to the demand and the time in which the service is actually available. The choice of the temporal moments in which to sample the phenomenon varies according to the item represented.

Metrics commonly agreed to in these cases include: Abandonment Rate; ASA (Average Speed to Answer); TSF (Time Service Factor); FCR (First-Call Resolution); TAT (Turn-Around Time); TRT (total resolution time); MTTR (Mean Time To Recover).

Starting from the elaboration of matrices that consider dependency relations, to represent a domino effect map it is necessary to apply a "filter" based on the degradation level of the service. an item will be considered compromised (and therefore will be represented in the domino effect map) only if the QoS degradation will be higher than a certain threshold, so the service is not considered acceptable (outage).

Various methods are described in the literature to perform this assessment. In general, the most common approaches consist in identifying some indicators that describe the various aspects of the consequences caused by an out of service event.

These indicators can fall into the following categories:


Simulation of interdependencies and graph-based model to understand critical infrastructure interdependencies are proposed in literature [24–27].

**231**

**Figure 3.**

*Manpower dependency tree.*

*Italian Crisis Management in 2020*

listed above.

• Wholesale

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.94894*

considering one or more products and services sectors.

interruptions of those impacted directly are as follows:

• Legal and accounting activities

Critical Infrastructure protection.

• Rental and management of owned or leased properties

• Road freight transport, removal and pipeline transport

• Financial service activities (except insurance and pension funding)

**3.3 Augustus method and its application by the Italian civil protection**

Civil Protection assistance at various levels of competence.

• Manufacture of fabricated metal products (except machinery and equipment)

As we can see in **Figure 4**, some sectors such as Financial Services Activities that did not undergo significant effects during the first phase of the lockdown, are subject to an indirect impact due to the activity suspension of their main suppliers.

The Augustus method can be considered as another concrete approaches to

The Method is a tool used by the Civil Protection Department of the Italian Republic for emergency planning. The Augustus Method was created in order to equip the Italian Civil Protection Service with a unified strategy for planning the

The graphical output here proposed (**Figure 3**) from the described model consists of dependency trees, time-oriented, that describe the collapse of the internal structure of an organization following the manpower "sector" unavailability. This model can be applied to a single organization based on its SC analysis starting

By re-analyzing the ISTAT indices and considering the main sectors activated by the sectors impacted by the manpower shortage, it is possible to identify which related sectors have been most impacted by service interruptions than those

The sectors impacted indirectly by the shortage of manpower compared with the

### *Italian Crisis Management in 2020 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.94894*

*Issues on Risk Analysis for Critical Infrastructure Protection*

provided can be described by quantifying the quantity of items provided in comparison to the demand and the time in which the service is actually available. The choice of the temporal moments in which to sample the phenomenon varies accord-

Metrics commonly agreed to in these cases include: Abandonment Rate; ASA (Average Speed to Answer); TSF (Time Service Factor); FCR (First-Call Resolution); TAT (Turn-Around Time); TRT (total resolution time); MTTR (Mean

These indicators can fall into the following categories:

physical suffering, and disruption of daily life).

infrastructure interdependencies are proposed in literature [24–27].

deterioration of products or services)

Starting from the elaboration of matrices that consider dependency relations, to represent a domino effect map it is necessary to apply a "filter" based on the degradation level of the service. an item will be considered compromised (and therefore will be represented in the domino effect map) only if the QoS degradation will be higher than a certain threshold, so the service is not considered acceptable (outage). Various methods are described in the literature to perform this assessment. In general, the most common approaches consist in identifying some indicators that describe the various aspects of the consequences caused by an out of service event.

• number of people (evaluated in terms of people impacted by the disruption)

• economic damage (assessed in terms of the extent of economic losses and/or

• effects on public opinion (assessed in terms of impact on public confidence,

Simulation of interdependencies and graph-based model to understand critical

**230**

ing to the item represented.

*Manpower cascading effect on organizational areas.*

Time To Recover).

**Figure 2.**

The graphical output here proposed (**Figure 3**) from the described model consists of dependency trees, time-oriented, that describe the collapse of the internal structure of an organization following the manpower "sector" unavailability. This model can be applied to a single organization based on its SC analysis starting considering one or more products and services sectors.

By re-analyzing the ISTAT indices and considering the main sectors activated by the sectors impacted by the manpower shortage, it is possible to identify which related sectors have been most impacted by service interruptions than those listed above.

The sectors impacted indirectly by the shortage of manpower compared with the interruptions of those impacted directly are as follows:


As we can see in **Figure 4**, some sectors such as Financial Services Activities that did not undergo significant effects during the first phase of the lockdown, are subject to an indirect impact due to the activity suspension of their main suppliers.

#### **3.3 Augustus method and its application by the Italian civil protection**

The Augustus method can be considered as another concrete approaches to Critical Infrastructure protection.

The Method is a tool used by the Civil Protection Department of the Italian Republic for emergency planning. The Augustus Method was created in order to equip the Italian Civil Protection Service with a unified strategy for planning the Civil Protection assistance at various levels of competence.

**Figure 3.** *Manpower dependency tree.*

**Figure 4.** *Index of indirect impact on SCC for other sectors not highly affected by unavailability of manpower.*

This method is named after the Roman Emperor Augustus (27 B.C. to 14 A.D.), who affirmed that: "*The value of planning decreases with the complexity of the state of things*." In detail, Augustus stated that it is impossible to plan a strategy in the smallest detail, because the event when it happens will always present in a different way. The Augustus Method is generated from the need to harmonize the directions of emergency planning.

This approach to the complexity of modern reality was structured and adapted by Elvezio Galanti, who considers the "emergency" (a public situation of particular difficulty and danger) an "organism" with its own life and composed by physiological functions (endocrine system, cardiology, etc.), each one specialized in its own field in which normally carries out its ordinary activity. In the context of civil protection, the "organism" is defined as the territory in which they normally act, and each one because of its specific functions (municipal, regional, health, transport, etc.). In the event of a disaster, these activities must all work together and in synergy.

The Augustus Methodology highlights, therefore, a fundamental aspect of the functioning of the Italian Civil Protection: its systemic nature. A complex apparatus made up of different elements and different organizations, resulting from the functioning of different systems in interaction with each other and with the other organizational systems [28].

In the preventive design phase, the Civil Protection, first of all, must work to collect information (time of occurrence of an event, geological conformation, productive fabric, urban fabric, etc.), then it must proceed with basic examinations (hazard analysis, vulnerability analysis, etc.) and finally a first diagnosis will be made (scenario, i.e. what I expect to happen) and for this reason, facilities will be arranged (monitoring networks, cleaning of riverbeds, seismic adaptation of structures, etc.).

In the absence or in the impossibility of activating these protocols, minimum measures of confrontation will be taken through the constitution of a "resilient cell" to manage the "big 5", i.e. five macro-areas in which the operational approach is divided into "acute emergency". These are:

**233**

*Italian Crisis Management in 2020*

for reception and stay).

operational centres.

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.94894*

4.identification of proximity sites to coordinate local interventions;

5. assistance to the population (health and management of any temporary camps

In the "acute" emergency scenario the Augustus Method becomes a good practice to manage the situation through the identification of 14 basic support functions, or support, that match all the competent and specific institutional figures for each function at territorial level and that contribute to its ordinary and extraordinary functioning. These functions are usually involved during the emergency itself, while in the study phases prior to the emergency, such as forecasting and prevention, they are deactivated and delivered to their specific and ordinary institutional functioning. These functions are: F 1 - Technology and planning; F 2 - Health, social and veterinary assistance; F 3 - Mass-media and information; F 4 - Volunteering; F 5 - Materials and means; F 6 - Transport, traffic and roads; F 7 - Telecommunications; F 8 - Essential services; F 9 - Census of damage to persons and property; F 10 - Operational facilities; F 11 - Local authorities; F 12 - Hazardous materials; F 13 - Assistance to the population; F 14 - Coordination of

The design of all coordinated activities and procedures of Civil Protection to respond to any disaster event that is expected in a specific territory is called

• physical processes causing the risk conditions and their assessments

Therefore, it is necessary to represent graphically the information necessary for the characterization of possible risk scenarios for the implementation of intervention strategies for the rescue and management of the emergency, rationalizing and

According to the Method, the following conditions determine the success of a

• unitary direction: the unitary direction of emergency operations is implemented through the coordination of a complex system and not in a sectoral

• communication: constant exchange of information between the central and

• resources: rational and timely use of the resources really available and the

availability of the men and means suitable for intervention.

"Emergency Plan". The Emergency Plan must be implemented:

1.Forecasting and Prevention Programs

2.Information related to:

• precursors

• events

• scenarios

• available resources.

targeting the use of men and means.

vision of the intervention.

peripheral Civil Protection system.

civil protection operation [29]:


*Issues on Risk Analysis for Critical Infrastructure Protection*

of emergency planning.

organizational systems [28].

divided into "acute emergency". These are:

2. entry points for expected rescue;

1.identification of sites per control room;

3. reception areas and first assistance to the population;

structures, etc.).

synergy.

**Figure 4.**

This method is named after the Roman Emperor Augustus (27 B.C. to 14 A.D.), who affirmed that: "*The value of planning decreases with the complexity of the state of things*." In detail, Augustus stated that it is impossible to plan a strategy in the smallest detail, because the event when it happens will always present in a different way. The Augustus Method is generated from the need to harmonize the directions

*Index of indirect impact on SCC for other sectors not highly affected by unavailability of manpower.*

This approach to the complexity of modern reality was structured and adapted by Elvezio Galanti, who considers the "emergency" (a public situation of particular difficulty and danger) an "organism" with its own life and composed by physiological functions (endocrine system, cardiology, etc.), each one specialized in its own field in which normally carries out its ordinary activity. In the context of civil protection, the "organism" is defined as the territory in which they normally act, and each one because of its specific functions (municipal, regional, health, transport, etc.). In the event of a disaster, these activities must all work together and in

The Augustus Methodology highlights, therefore, a fundamental aspect of the functioning of the Italian Civil Protection: its systemic nature. A complex apparatus made up of different elements and different organizations, resulting from the functioning of different systems in interaction with each other and with the other

In the preventive design phase, the Civil Protection, first of all, must work to collect information (time of occurrence of an event, geological conformation, productive fabric, urban fabric, etc.), then it must proceed with basic examinations (hazard analysis, vulnerability analysis, etc.) and finally a first diagnosis will be made (scenario, i.e. what I expect to happen) and for this reason, facilities will be arranged (monitoring networks, cleaning of riverbeds, seismic adaptation of

In the absence or in the impossibility of activating these protocols, minimum measures of confrontation will be taken through the constitution of a "resilient cell" to manage the "big 5", i.e. five macro-areas in which the operational approach is

**232**


In the "acute" emergency scenario the Augustus Method becomes a good practice to manage the situation through the identification of 14 basic support functions, or support, that match all the competent and specific institutional figures for each function at territorial level and that contribute to its ordinary and extraordinary functioning. These functions are usually involved during the emergency itself, while in the study phases prior to the emergency, such as forecasting and prevention, they are deactivated and delivered to their specific and ordinary institutional functioning. These functions are: F 1 - Technology and planning; F 2 - Health, social and veterinary assistance; F 3 - Mass-media and information; F 4 - Volunteering; F 5 - Materials and means; F 6 - Transport, traffic and roads; F 7 - Telecommunications; F 8 - Essential services; F 9 - Census of damage to persons and property; F 10 - Operational facilities; F 11 - Local authorities; F 12 - Hazardous materials; F 13 - Assistance to the population; F 14 - Coordination of operational centres.

The design of all coordinated activities and procedures of Civil Protection to respond to any disaster event that is expected in a specific territory is called "Emergency Plan". The Emergency Plan must be implemented:

	- physical processes causing the risk conditions and their assessments
	- precursors
	- events
	- scenarios
	- available resources.

Therefore, it is necessary to represent graphically the information necessary for the characterization of possible risk scenarios for the implementation of intervention strategies for the rescue and management of the emergency, rationalizing and targeting the use of men and means.

According to the Method, the following conditions determine the success of a civil protection operation [29]:


The Emergency Plan structured according to the Augustus Method must be able to answer the following questions:


To satisfy these needs, it is first of all necessary to define the risk scenarios on the basis of the vulnerability of the portion of the territory concerned (areas, population involved, damaged structures, etc.) in order to have a global and reliable picture of the expected event and therefore to be able to dimension in advance the operational response necessary to overcome the disaster with particular attention to the protection of human life (how many firefighters, how many volunteers, which command and control structures, which roads or escape routes, which shelter structures, health areas, etc.).

The Emergency Plan is therefore a working tool calibrated on a likely situation based on scientific knowledge of the state of risk of the territory, which can be updated and integrated with reference to the list of men and means, but especially when new knowledge is acquired on the conditions of risk involving different assessments of the scenarios, or even when new or additional monitoring and warning systems to the population are available [30].

On the provincial level, the Emergency Plan will identify, at an inter-municipal or provincial scale: on the one side the situations that can configure a more extensive emergency of the single municipality, on the other side the situations, even localized, of greater risk, pointing out, when necessary, the need for an in-depth study of some aspects related to the Municipal scale.

On municipal level, a more detailed level of information is needed to allow the operators of the various components of the Civil Protection to have a reference framework corresponding to the size of the expected event, the population involved, the alternative road system, possible escape routes, waiting areas, shelter, storage areas and so on. Considering that the risk present in a given territory may refer to different types of events (floods, earthquakes, landslides, etc.), the Emergency Plan must provide for one or more "risk scenarios", which must or may correspond to different types of intervention.

The Italian Civil Protection assumes primary and decisive roles on the institutional scene of civil protection in Italy. This body sums up three fundamental structures at national level:


**235**

*Italian Crisis Management in 2020*

operational system.

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.94894*

primarily at safeguarding human life.

emergency, to face something unforeseen.

emergencies and in particular cases also for events at local level, makes the Civil Protection an entity that can operate de facto across the board. The Prefect is the cornerstone of the command and coordination structure of the civil protection

Another key player is represented by the Mayor. He is the determining element in the operational chain of civil protection at municipal level in the assumption of all responsibilities related to civil protection tasks: from the preventive organization of control and monitoring activities to the adoption of emergency measures aimed

It is appropriate, at this point, to make one final consideration: the Emergency Plan is drawn up in any case on the basis of the scientific knowledge possessed at the time of writing, without waiting for studies in progress or future assignments or improvements. An "expeditious" plan, even if imprecise and precautionary, is better than no plan at all. As soon as possible, the Emergency Plan will be reviewed,

The key concept of contingency planning is to try to predict all possible variables, however, it is necessary to be aware that it will always be possible, in any

**3.4 The Italian civil protection strategy for the management of the 2020 crisis**

The coordination of the members of the National Service of Civil Protection is happening according to the provisions of the Augustus Method thanks to the synchronism of the representatives of each operational function (Health, Volunteering,

The intervention model adopted by civil protection for the management of the epidemiological emergency [31] based on the definition of the chain of command and control, the communication flow and the procedures to be activated in relation

The chain of command and control includes the following levels of coordination:

• National level: the Head of the Civil Protection Department ensures the coordination of the necessary interventions, making use of the Department, the components, and operational structures of the National Civil Protection Service, as well as implementing entities. At the Department of Civil Protection is active the Civil Protection Operational Committee, with the task of ensuring the contribution and support of the National Civil Protection System on the basis of the health indications defined by the Ministry of Health, which makes use of the ISS (Istituto Superiore Sanità) and the Scientific Technical Committee specifically established with the OCDPC 630/2020 at the Department.

• Regional level: at all Regions must be activated a regional crisis unit, which operates in close connection with the SOR - Regional Operations Room, which must provide for the participation of the Regional Health Contact, which operates in connection with the Health Director of the local health agencies, and in constant contact with a representative of the Chief Prefecture, in order to ensure the connection with the other Prefectures - UTG of the regional territory.

• Provincial level: in the provinces in which at least one person is positive for whom the source of transmission is unknown or in any case where there is a case not attributable to a person from an area already affected by the virus, as provided by art. 1, paragraph 1 of Decree-Law no. 6 of 23.02.2020, the Prefect or his delegate provides for the activation of the CCS - Rescue Coordination Centre

improved, and completed with more data and more scientific bases.

Telecommunications, etc..) to interact directly with each other.

to the emergency state determined by the spread of the pandemic.

The Civil Protection plays a key role in the management of national emergencies but not only: the possibility of being activated by the Prefect (Prefetto) for

### *Italian Crisis Management in 2020 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.94894*

*Issues on Risk Analysis for Critical Infrastructure Protection*

to answer the following questions:

structures, health areas, etc.).

ing systems to the population are available [30].

study of some aspects related to the Municipal scale.

correspond to different types of intervention.

structures at national level:

Ministry of the Interior

The Emergency Plan structured according to the Augustus Method must be able

• what operational organization is necessary to minimize the effects of the event

• to whom are the different responsibilities at the various levels of command and

To satisfy these needs, it is first of all necessary to define the risk scenarios on the basis of the vulnerability of the portion of the territory concerned (areas, population involved, damaged structures, etc.) in order to have a global and reliable picture of the expected event and therefore to be able to dimension in advance the operational response necessary to overcome the disaster with particular attention to the protection of human life (how many firefighters, how many volunteers, which command and control structures, which roads or escape routes, which shelter

The Emergency Plan is therefore a working tool calibrated on a likely situation based on scientific knowledge of the state of risk of the territory, which can be updated and integrated with reference to the list of men and means, but especially when new knowledge is acquired on the conditions of risk involving different assessments of the scenarios, or even when new or additional monitoring and warn-

On the provincial level, the Emergency Plan will identify, at an inter-municipal or provincial scale: on the one side the situations that can configure a more extensive emergency of the single municipality, on the other side the situations, even localized, of greater risk, pointing out, when necessary, the need for an in-depth

On municipal level, a more detailed level of information is needed to allow the operators of the various components of the Civil Protection to have a reference framework corresponding to the size of the expected event, the population involved, the alternative road system, possible escape routes, waiting areas, shelter, storage areas and so on. Considering that the risk present in a given territory may refer to different types of events (floods, earthquakes, landslides, etc.), the Emergency Plan must provide for one or more "risk scenarios", which must or may

The Italian Civil Protection assumes primary and decisive roles on the institutional scene of civil protection in Italy. This body sums up three fundamental

• the Civil Protection Department at the Presidency of the Council of Ministers

• the National Seismic Service at the Department of National Technical Services

The Civil Protection plays a key role in the management of national emergencies but not only: the possibility of being activated by the Prefect (Prefetto) for

• the General Directorate of Civil Protection and Firefighting Services at the

(currently dependent on the Ministry of Public Works).

• what calamitous events may reasonably affect the municipality?

• which people, facilities and services will be affected or damaged?

with particular attention to the protection of human life?

control for emergency management assigned?

**234**

emergencies and in particular cases also for events at local level, makes the Civil Protection an entity that can operate de facto across the board. The Prefect is the cornerstone of the command and coordination structure of the civil protection operational system.

Another key player is represented by the Mayor. He is the determining element in the operational chain of civil protection at municipal level in the assumption of all responsibilities related to civil protection tasks: from the preventive organization of control and monitoring activities to the adoption of emergency measures aimed primarily at safeguarding human life.

It is appropriate, at this point, to make one final consideration: the Emergency Plan is drawn up in any case on the basis of the scientific knowledge possessed at the time of writing, without waiting for studies in progress or future assignments or improvements. An "expeditious" plan, even if imprecise and precautionary, is better than no plan at all. As soon as possible, the Emergency Plan will be reviewed, improved, and completed with more data and more scientific bases.

The key concept of contingency planning is to try to predict all possible variables, however, it is necessary to be aware that it will always be possible, in any emergency, to face something unforeseen.
