**Abstract**

Modern business processes are characterized by a large number of random factors that can affect the characteristics of internal and external processes. The created models use the method of calculating output parameters as an operation with random characteristics of factors that affect the final results. The processes and factors of the project are divided into permanent and random. Random processes are characterized by individual distributions and characteristics. The mathematical model of a business project is formed by a program that performs operations with the characteristics of random factors and risk factors that form the business project. The generated model allows you to calculate financial flows and balances at all stages of the project implementation, and determines various indicators of its effectiveness. To optimize these indicators, it is planned to introduce anti-risk measures. The model allows you to optimize the number of such activities, taking into account their cost and the degree of impact on the project performance indicators. Using the proposed method of analyzing business projects allows you to take into account possible random factors and risk factors and make the most optimal management decisions.

**Keywords:** risk assessment, discount rate, Probabilistic, simulation, distribution

#### **1. Introduction**

Innovative business projects require a thorough analysis of their implementation. For this analysis, a business plan is drawn up, the most important element of which is the financial model of the project. Typically, a business plan uses deterministic characteristics of the project's processes and objects. However, it is impossible to accurately predict the values of these processes, since they relate to the future time and are subject to market influences. By their nature, they refer to random processes with their individual characteristics and distributions. Just as random are the potential risks that may occur during the implementation of the project. The peculiarity of the considered method of constructing a financial model of the project is that all the initial data of the project components are recorded as random variables, if they are such. To quantify the characteristics of random variables, the program uses the ModelRisk add-in. The implemented program allows you to learn the output characteristics of a business project as random variables with their distribution law. This form of results allows you to more accurately determine the risks of project implementation.
