**5. Results of the FCVAM Analysis**

The FCVAM analysis is performed for the three case study areas by using the inputs collected from database of Ozyurt (2010) and published research papers on the specific sites

The Goksu delta is known for the important biodiversity of its flora and fauna, which led to the Specially Protected Area status that it claimed in 1991. In 1994, the wetlands of the delta were included in the RAMSAR list (List of Wetlands of International Importance). The richness of the fauna of the Goksu delta is influenced by its geographical location as well as its ecology. The presence of the major sea turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting beaches on the Mediterranean and its importance in terms of ornithology make the delta one of the most diverse and valuable ecosystems in the region. In addition to its important ecological properties, the delta has become an important agricultural area, leading to rapid socioeconomic development since the implementation of irrigation network in 1968. The use of the river as a freshwater resource as well as the aquifers of the region has increased substantially after the 1980s when rice production started to dominate the agricultural landscape. High demand for freshwater - especially for groundwater - has led to sharp decreases in the water tables and the intrusion of sea water into some of the coastal aquifers. Across the region there are 5 municipalities and 7 villages, and the population is increasing with a rate above the average rate of the country. All of the economical, physical and ecological properties of the Göksu delta demonstrate the importance of this low-lying land,

which has an average elevation of 2m above sea level (Ozyurt & Ergin, 2009).

Fig. 5. Google Earth image of Goksu Delta, Silifke, Turkey

The FCVAM analysis is performed for the three case study areas by using the inputs collected from database of Ozyurt (2010) and published research papers on the specific sites

**5. Results of the FCVAM Analysis** 

(Axiak, 1992; Birdi, 1997; Lorenzo et al, 2010; Ozyurt and Ergin, 2009). Table 3 presents the input values for the three study areas. Some of the data presented in Table 3 needs preprocessing steps. These pre-processing steps are explained in detail in Ozyurt (2010).


Table 3. Input data used for the FCVAM Analysis.

Spatial and Time Balancing Act:

vulnerability score for this region.

Coastal Geomorphology in View of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) 157

the variance of vulnerability across the region since the possible higher vulnerability of the pocket beaches were not reflected in the results. However, studies on the dynamics on the main beach (Cove beach) of the area shows that the beach is mostly stable because of annual artificial nourishment. Nonetheless, the moderate vulnerability score for coastal erosion is sufficient to explain the vulnerability of the coastal zone of the region, although the application of low resolution data misses the variance in vulnerability at higher spatial resolution. Additionally, due to the variability of the vulnerability of pocket beaches an assessment using higher resolution spatial data should be applied. The aggregated vulnerability score shows moderate vulnerability while the high vulnerability score for storm surge impact underlines the necessity for short term spatial planning, as is the case in Goksu, Turkey. Although the cliff geomorphology is resistant to flooding, medium cliffs are prone to erosion and the high energy driving force can initiate cliff erosion as well as short term coastal erosion along pocket beaches. The possibility of cliff erosion along the most

The assessment of the B'Buga region in Malta demonstrates a moderate score of aggregated vulnerability, very similar to that of Viveiro, Spain. Although the scores are close, the ranking of the impact vulnerability scores are different, showing that the aggregated vulnerability score by itself might mask the importance of individual impacts. The same discussion holds true for the different results of the assessment using different spatial resolutions, as with the case of Viveiro. The dominant geomorphology of the B'Buga region is its rocky cliffs, although inside the bay there are small beaches protected by a huge port infrastructure that has recently been constructed. The resilience of the geomorphology combined with milder forces (waves and tides) for geomorphologic processes determines the low to moderate vulnerability in terms of the impacts along the shoreline. Coastal erosion scores signal the low vulnerability of the region, which is also protected from the driving forces via coastal structures. Storm surge and inundation impacts show moderate to low vulnerability. These scores can be attributed to the natural resilience of the coastal strip and significant human intervention which act as protection measures. On the contrary, the vulnerability of groundwater resources for the whole island shows high vulnerability. The over-exploitation of the available resources due to land use and urbanisation, as well as the low resilience of the aquifer, generates the high

In terms of ICZM planning, the scores show that the most vulnerable resource is groundwater. Although the natural vulnerability of the aquifer is moderate, the high impact of human influence on the vulnerability highlights future problems and urges the preparation of policy actions both for the short term and the long term. The installation of RO plants on the island is one of the actions that can be considered in line with the results of the assessment. However, more actions are needed in the long term. Similar to the case of Viveiro, the assessment of aggregated values for a long coastal strip masks the vulnerabilities of small beaches within the region which might have higher scores. Thus, a similar type of assessment is required using detailed data, the results of which might point

The vulnerability scores for Goksu point out that the region is highly vulnerable to geomorphology dependent coastal processes such as erosion, flooding and inundation.

out a more definite framework for the future application of ICZM plans.

exposed coast strip is also documented in Lorenzo et al. (2007).

The results of 3 case studies are given in Table 4. These values should be discussed using a scale of 1 to 5 which the FCVAM model also translates into levels of vulnerability, such as very low, low, moderate, high and very high (Ozyurt, 2010).

The coastal vulnerability assessment of the three different case study sites shows that Viveiro and B'Buga show moderate vulnerability to the impact of sea level rise and that the Goksu Delta (Silifke) shows a high vulnerability according to the aggregated vulnerability scores. The results are compatible with the literature on the impact of sea level rise on coastal landforms presented in the IPCC Assessment Reports (2007). The IPCC Assessment Reports (2007) generalise the vulnerability of coastal areas to sea level rise in terms of coastal landforms; cliff and indented coastlines inherit moderate vulnerability while deltas and low lying lands show high vulnerability, particularly to the impact of sea level rise.


Table 4. Results of the fuzzy vulnerability assessment model for the three case study sites.

The first case study area is the Viveiro region, where medium cliffs and indented coastal strips with pocket beaches dominate the geomorphology. Since the assessment is performed at the LAU2 level, the information on the geomorphology of the region has been determined using the most dominant characteristic, namely medium cliffs and indented coasts. This geomorphology indicates the low vulnerability of the coastal area as a region. Moreover, the aggregated vulnerability score shows that the region is moderately vulnerable to the impact of sea level rise. Moderate vulnerability is assigned to coastal erosion and inundation for the region where the high resilience of the geomorphologic characteristics of the coastal strip to withstand the high energy of such driving forces as tides and waves. The high vulnerability of the region to storm surges (documented by measurements (Lorenzo et al. 2007)) highlights the dominance of the driving forces of geomorphologic processes. Impact vulnerabilities are governed by the physical characteristics of the region and for processes along shorelines, and human intervention adds to the vulnerability to a moderate level. The assessment - using aggregated information for a large spatial area - is not able to highlight

The results of 3 case studies are given in Table 4. These values should be discussed using a scale of 1 to 5 which the FCVAM model also translates into levels of vulnerability, such as

The coastal vulnerability assessment of the three different case study sites shows that Viveiro and B'Buga show moderate vulnerability to the impact of sea level rise and that the Goksu Delta (Silifke) shows a high vulnerability according to the aggregated vulnerability scores. The results are compatible with the literature on the impact of sea level rise on coastal landforms presented in the IPCC Assessment Reports (2007). The IPCC Assessment Reports (2007) generalise the vulnerability of coastal areas to sea level rise in terms of coastal landforms; cliff and indented coastlines inherit moderate vulnerability while deltas and low

lying lands show high vulnerability, particularly to the impact of sea level rise.

**Impacts Viveiro B'Buga Goksu** 

Coastal Erosion 3.00 Moderate 2.14 Low 4.00 High

Inundation 3.20 Moderate 3.00 Moderate 4.05 High

Storm Surge 4.00 High 3.00 Moderate 4.00 High

Groundwater NA NA 4.01 High 3.83 High

**VULNERABILITY INDEX** 3.05 Moderate 3.09 Moderate 3.71 High

Table 4. Results of the fuzzy vulnerability assessment model for the three case study sites.

The first case study area is the Viveiro region, where medium cliffs and indented coastal strips with pocket beaches dominate the geomorphology. Since the assessment is performed at the LAU2 level, the information on the geomorphology of the region has been determined using the most dominant characteristic, namely medium cliffs and indented coasts. This geomorphology indicates the low vulnerability of the coastal area as a region. Moreover, the aggregated vulnerability score shows that the region is moderately vulnerable to the impact of sea level rise. Moderate vulnerability is assigned to coastal erosion and inundation for the region where the high resilience of the geomorphologic characteristics of the coastal strip to withstand the high energy of such driving forces as tides and waves. The high vulnerability of the region to storm surges (documented by measurements (Lorenzo et al. 2007)) highlights the dominance of the driving forces of geomorphologic processes. Impact vulnerabilities are governed by the physical characteristics of the region and for processes along shorelines, and human intervention adds to the vulnerability to a moderate level. The assessment - using aggregated information for a large spatial area - is not able to highlight

River 2.00 Low NA NA 2.88 Moderate

very low, low, moderate, high and very high (Ozyurt, 2010).

**Regions** 

the variance of vulnerability across the region since the possible higher vulnerability of the pocket beaches were not reflected in the results. However, studies on the dynamics on the main beach (Cove beach) of the area shows that the beach is mostly stable because of annual artificial nourishment. Nonetheless, the moderate vulnerability score for coastal erosion is sufficient to explain the vulnerability of the coastal zone of the region, although the application of low resolution data misses the variance in vulnerability at higher spatial resolution. Additionally, due to the variability of the vulnerability of pocket beaches an assessment using higher resolution spatial data should be applied. The aggregated vulnerability score shows moderate vulnerability while the high vulnerability score for storm surge impact underlines the necessity for short term spatial planning, as is the case in Goksu, Turkey. Although the cliff geomorphology is resistant to flooding, medium cliffs are prone to erosion and the high energy driving force can initiate cliff erosion as well as short term coastal erosion along pocket beaches. The possibility of cliff erosion along the most exposed coast strip is also documented in Lorenzo et al. (2007).

The assessment of the B'Buga region in Malta demonstrates a moderate score of aggregated vulnerability, very similar to that of Viveiro, Spain. Although the scores are close, the ranking of the impact vulnerability scores are different, showing that the aggregated vulnerability score by itself might mask the importance of individual impacts. The same discussion holds true for the different results of the assessment using different spatial resolutions, as with the case of Viveiro. The dominant geomorphology of the B'Buga region is its rocky cliffs, although inside the bay there are small beaches protected by a huge port infrastructure that has recently been constructed. The resilience of the geomorphology combined with milder forces (waves and tides) for geomorphologic processes determines the low to moderate vulnerability in terms of the impacts along the shoreline. Coastal erosion scores signal the low vulnerability of the region, which is also protected from the driving forces via coastal structures. Storm surge and inundation impacts show moderate to low vulnerability. These scores can be attributed to the natural resilience of the coastal strip and significant human intervention which act as protection measures. On the contrary, the vulnerability of groundwater resources for the whole island shows high vulnerability. The over-exploitation of the available resources due to land use and urbanisation, as well as the low resilience of the aquifer, generates the high vulnerability score for this region.

In terms of ICZM planning, the scores show that the most vulnerable resource is groundwater. Although the natural vulnerability of the aquifer is moderate, the high impact of human influence on the vulnerability highlights future problems and urges the preparation of policy actions both for the short term and the long term. The installation of RO plants on the island is one of the actions that can be considered in line with the results of the assessment. However, more actions are needed in the long term. Similar to the case of Viveiro, the assessment of aggregated values for a long coastal strip masks the vulnerabilities of small beaches within the region which might have higher scores. Thus, a similar type of assessment is required using detailed data, the results of which might point out a more definite framework for the future application of ICZM plans.

The vulnerability scores for Goksu point out that the region is highly vulnerable to geomorphology dependent coastal processes such as erosion, flooding and inundation.

Spatial and Time Balancing Act:

the sustainability of aquifers.

**6. Conclusion** 

be assessed.

Coastal Geomorphology in View of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) 159

As was previously mentioned, ICZM aims to manage all the resources available on the coastal area, including fresh water resources. For Goksu, both river and groundwater resources are assessed in terms of vulnerability to sea water intrusion. Although the river shows moderate vulnerability - due to higher scores of human influence parameters - the possibility of higher vulnerability can be expected in the long term. This result indicates that ICZM should consider adjusting the human activities along the spatial extent of the region, including the river basin management. On the other hand, groundwater resources show high resilience if not over exploited. However - as is shown by the histogram - the human parameters show the highest vulnerability score. Thus ICZM plans must consider policydriven options that include both short term solutions as well as long term applications for

For the sustainability of coastal areas, integrated coastal zone management has become the leading concept which requires the integration of many concepts studied by different disciplines, such as geology, geomorphology, coastal and marine sciences, sociology, etc. The study of the geomorphology of coastal areas - focusing on landforms and the processes that shape them - is one of the core disciplines required for successful and efficient ICZM practice. The information generated by geomorphologic studies acts as a foundation for other studies included in ICZM plans - such as vulnerability assessments by determining the scale of the assessments, the processes to be included and options to

The results of the case study locations assessed by the FCVAM are used to discuss the role of geomorphology in the vulnerability of coastal areas. Additionally, the integration of spatial and temporal scales within the model, considering the different scales of geomorphology and the ICZM, are presented through these examples. The assessment methodology uses the concepts and theories of geomorphology (landform processes, drivers and factors) such that different processes (such as waves, tides) acting on the geomorphology are integrated and evaluated by using governing parameters which are not limited to spatial or temporal scales. Geomorphology in terms of coastal land forms is directly included in the FCVAM model. In addition, the site-specific application of the model is suggested to be performed by preparing the model database, determining coastal strips with respect to their geomorphological properties and focusing on landforms. The processes related to specific landforms are the main properties that also define the vulnerability of the coastal zone, and the relationships between these processes and landforms are the structural backbone of FCVAM model. The selection processes of the parameters to be included in site-specific assessments using the FCVAM model are dependent on the study of geomorphology and its theories of specific landforms, as

The fuzzy coastal vulnerability assessment methodology (Ozyurt, 2010) was used to assess different coastal areas showing various physical and geomorphological properties as well as different levels of socio-economic development patterns. The regional application of the FCVAM is presented by comparing three different locations (Viveiro, Spain; B'Buga, Malta and Silifke, Turkey) at the LAU2 level using coarse resolution data. The data used for the

presented in the discussion on the model's parameters.

Figure 7 shows the influence graphs of Goksu, Turkey in addition to the impact and vulnerability scores. These graphs are important for local decision-making processes, while the comparison of different sites according to the overall vulnerability scores enables planning for the regional to national management of coastal areas. The histogram shows that although human influence on the geomorphologic processes is significant (scores for human influence parameters indicate moderate vulnerability), it is the physical properties of the region that governs the vulnerability. Many of the physical parameters are part of the geomorphologic mechanisms, either as driving forces or as affected attributes, and the scores of these parameters for the Goksu region signal a high vulnerability as reflected by the aggregated vulnerability of the whole region. On the other hand, the vulnerability of groundwater resources is human influence-driven, although the physical characteristics of the aquifers indicate the resilience to sea level rise. It is the establishment of the level of influence of different processes along the coastal area that enables us to generate a framework for the Goksu region in terms of ICZM planning. In terms of high vulnerability impacts where geomorphologic processes govern the dynamics, the understanding of local geomorphology dynamics and the impact of human activities over the long term represents the key areas that ICZM practice should be based on. The high score of flooding due to storm surges indicates that a short term temporal scale should be included in the modelling, underlining the necessity for numerical model studies for this site. Since the physical properties of the region dominate the vulnerability, management options need to be more structure-based, at least in terms of soft protection options such as nourishment or dune planning (Ozyurt & Ergin, 2010).

Fig. 7. Influence Histogram for Goksu (red columns indicate the human inference system, blue columns indicate the physical inference system).

As was previously mentioned, ICZM aims to manage all the resources available on the coastal area, including fresh water resources. For Goksu, both river and groundwater resources are assessed in terms of vulnerability to sea water intrusion. Although the river shows moderate vulnerability - due to higher scores of human influence parameters - the possibility of higher vulnerability can be expected in the long term. This result indicates that ICZM should consider adjusting the human activities along the spatial extent of the region, including the river basin management. On the other hand, groundwater resources show high resilience if not over exploited. However - as is shown by the histogram - the human parameters show the highest vulnerability score. Thus ICZM plans must consider policydriven options that include both short term solutions as well as long term applications for the sustainability of aquifers.
