**3. Coastal geomorphology and the Fuzzy Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Model (FCVAM)**

The Fuzzy Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Model uses a total of 20 parameters (13 physical and 7 relating to human activity) to define such processes as coastal erosion, inundation, flooding due to storm surges and saltwater intrusion to freshwater resources (groundwater and rivers) along coastal areas. The Fuzzy Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Model (FCVAM) evaluates different areas through aggregated coastal vulnerability. At the same time, a region can be assessed for its vulnerability to different impacts. In addition, the vulnerability of governing physical\anthropogenic parameters is evaluated for individual impacts. The model uses an analytical hierarchy process to integrate stakeholder opinion with the decision-making process; the fuzzy expert system to combine expert opinion, the available data and generic coastal engineering knowledge and geographical information systems in order to present the results of the assessment of the vulnerability of coastal areas, integrating the impacts of sea level rise. The integration of important human activities - such as river basin management, land use and coastal engineering structures - with physical processes - such as waves, tides and sea level rise - on a process level is also achieved through the fuzzy coastal vulnerability model. Several spatial scales can be used for the implementation of the model and each spatial scale aims to be used for distinct purposes, directly related to coastal management practice. The implementation of the model to a coastal region would serve the purpose of a national vulnerability assessment determining "hotspots". Site-specific implementation, on the other hand, serves the purpose of developing a framework for adaptation planning.

The fuzzy coastal vulnerability model uses the main components of fuzzy expert systems, such as parameter membership functions, rule bases and fuzzy arithmetic, as well as clustering and data analysis tools such as the fuzzy c-means algorithm. The database used to develop the parameter membership functions is combination and integration of data covering European coastlines. Rule bases are developed by analysing the numerical models used to define coastal processes and the literature on climate change. The MATLAB Fuzzy Logic Toolbox is used to construct the fuzzy expert system, which is based on a modular structure enabling the future extension of the capability of the present model. Fuzzy arithmetic is also utilised in addition to a rule base expert system in order to determine the coastal vulnerability index. The details on the methodology of the fuzzy coastal vulnerability assessment model are presented in Ozyurt (2010). On the other hand, the focus of this chapter looks to discuss the role of geomorphology within the fuzzy coastal vulnerability model as well as the integration of spatial and temporal scales within the model in view of the different scales of geomorphology and ICZM through examples of application of the model.

irreversible consequences for coastal areas, tools that could integrate expert opinion in an objective way with the available data and generic models and tools would mark an important step for the management of coastal areas where the monitoring and assessment of the implementation of developed plans could be scientifically verified. One such vulnerability assessment model was developed by Ozyurt (2007) and then upgraded in 2010 as a tool using fuzzy expert systems to integrate physical characteristics with human activities on both cross-shore and long-shore spatial extents for coastal areas (Ozyurt, 2010).

**3. Coastal geomorphology and the Fuzzy Coastal Vulnerability Assessment** 

The Fuzzy Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Model uses a total of 20 parameters (13 physical and 7 relating to human activity) to define such processes as coastal erosion, inundation, flooding due to storm surges and saltwater intrusion to freshwater resources (groundwater and rivers) along coastal areas. The Fuzzy Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Model (FCVAM) evaluates different areas through aggregated coastal vulnerability. At the same time, a region can be assessed for its vulnerability to different impacts. In addition, the vulnerability of governing physical\anthropogenic parameters is evaluated for individual impacts. The model uses an analytical hierarchy process to integrate stakeholder opinion with the decision-making process; the fuzzy expert system to combine expert opinion, the available data and generic coastal engineering knowledge and geographical information systems in order to present the results of the assessment of the vulnerability of coastal areas, integrating the impacts of sea level rise. The integration of important human activities - such as river basin management, land use and coastal engineering structures - with physical processes - such as waves, tides and sea level rise - on a process level is also achieved through the fuzzy coastal vulnerability model. Several spatial scales can be used for the implementation of the model and each spatial scale aims to be used for distinct purposes, directly related to coastal management practice. The implementation of the model to a coastal region would serve the purpose of a national vulnerability assessment determining "hotspots". Site-specific implementation, on the other hand, serves the purpose of

The fuzzy coastal vulnerability model uses the main components of fuzzy expert systems, such as parameter membership functions, rule bases and fuzzy arithmetic, as well as clustering and data analysis tools such as the fuzzy c-means algorithm. The database used to develop the parameter membership functions is combination and integration of data covering European coastlines. Rule bases are developed by analysing the numerical models used to define coastal processes and the literature on climate change. The MATLAB Fuzzy Logic Toolbox is used to construct the fuzzy expert system, which is based on a modular structure enabling the future extension of the capability of the present model. Fuzzy arithmetic is also utilised in addition to a rule base expert system in order to determine the coastal vulnerability index. The details on the methodology of the fuzzy coastal vulnerability assessment model are presented in Ozyurt (2010). On the other hand, the focus of this chapter looks to discuss the role of geomorphology within the fuzzy coastal vulnerability model as well as the integration of spatial and temporal scales within the model in view of the different scales of geomorphology and ICZM through examples of

**Model (FCVAM)** 

developing a framework for adaptation planning.

application of the model.

Of the impacts assessed by the FCVAM model, coastal erosion is the one that both influences and is influenced by geomorphologic processes the most. The FCVAM model uses 6 parameters for physical characteristics and 5 parameters for anthropogenic activities in representing the mechanism of coastal erosion (Table 1).


Table 1. Parameters of FCVAM model representing the coastal erosion mechanism (Ozyurt, 2010).

The physical parameters for erosion include and integrate the impact of climate change through sea level rise, geomorphology through landforms, and coastal processes through waves, the sediment budget and tidal range. Waves and tides are used to classify the shoreline as a high\low energy shoreline so as to determine whether or not coastal geomorphologic processes are governed by natural drivers. The sediment budget parameter - originating from the historical evolution of the shoreline - shows whether geomorphologic processes are dominant along the coastal area. The type of landforms points out the overall susceptibility of the shoreline to geomorphologic processes. All of the parameters mentioned are related to a long shore spatial scale.

The human influence parameters - also given in Table 1 - require assessments of their own which need to derive information from geomorphology studies as well. Due to activities outside the coastal zone, natural ecosystems (particularly within the catchments draining to the coast) have been fragmented and the downstream flow of water, sediment and nutrients has been disrupted (Nilsson et al. 2005). Land-use change - particularly deforestation - and hydrological modifications have had downstream impacts in addition to localised development on the coast. As stated by Jiongxhin (2004) erosion in the catchment has increased the river sediment load; for example, suspended loads in the Huanghe (Yellow) River have increased 2 to 10 times over the past 2000 years. In contrast, damming and channelisation have significantly reduced the supply of sediments to the coast on other rivers through retention of sediment in dams. Indeed, this latter effect will likely dominate the 21st century. On the other hand, land use change along the shoreline (long shore scale) also changed the amount of sediment supply available to coastal processes. Excavation of the coastal zone, sand mining and urbanisation contribute to the change in the sediment budget because of human use of the coast. Human activities controlling the flow rate of rivers also have a significant impact on the supply of sediment to coastal areas.

Two parameters (the reduction of sediment supply and river flow regulation) are inserted into the FCVAM model in order to reflect these mechanical processes and the spatial scales of these mechanisms. The reduction of sediment supply is defined as the ratio of

Spatial and Time Balancing Act:

processes.

erosion.

concept of scale.

Coastal Geomorphology in View of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) 149

Another effect of human activities along coastal areas is the change in the ecosystem that increases the resilience of the coastal area, such as dunes and wetlands. However, these systems are under threat of urbanisation and other anthropogenic pressures. The natural protection degradation parameter shows the status of the ecosystem (such as dunes and marshes and wetlands) which provides protection for the coast. If the system is healthy, then the resilience of the area to the impact of sea level rise is high. For example, dunes act as both sediment supply sources against erosion as well as a barrier to inundation. If there is sand extraction from these dunes, although the area may be naturally resilient human activity significantly decreases this resilience. This change in the ecosystem also affects such the mechanisms as sediment transport which in turn impacts the geomorphologic

In view of the aims of this study, the wave statistics and the spatial scale available for the region control the temporal scale which is used by the FCVAM for assessing coastal erosion vulnerability. For the coastal erosion process, the wave climate is one of the basic governing forces. Although single extreme events such as storms contribute to significant shoreline changes of a short duration, the coastal area always tries to establish equilibrium in the longer term. It is important to underline that storm-based coastal erosion might be more critical at some locations rather than long-term balance. For these locations, high resolution spatial scale and numerical modelling should be applied. This vulnerability might be what governs the natural hazard aspect of ICZM in the short temporal scale. However, if the time scale of sea level rise is considered, longer trends gain in importance. This is the reason for inserting another parameter (the sediment budget parameter) that represents historical and present shoreline movements so as to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas to coastal

The assessment of vulnerability due to storm surges is another module of the FCVAM (Table 2). Storm surges also have an impact on geomorphologic processes. However, the FCVAM model evaluates the flooding of coastal areas due to storm surges. Nevertheless, the time scale of the assessment - in terms of flooding - can be controlled through the storm

Inundation, saltwater intrusion to groundwater resources and rivers are also included in the FCVAM, and geomorphology has influence on these processes as well (Table 2). Beach slope is the main parameter for the inundation mechanism, which is determined by the type of landform present at the coastal area. The properties of the soil layer and land use have an impact on the recharging of aquifers which, in turn, is included in the groundwater vulnerability assessment module. Also coastal geomorphologic processes significantly influence the geometry of the river mouth, which is represented by river depth in the river vulnerability assessment module. As can be seen, the parameters of the assessment are selected by analysing geomorphology studies for several time and spatial scales as well as other mechanisms. Thus, it would be appropriate to say that the upgrading of the assessment model is highly dependent on the advancement of geomorphology literature.

The next section will present examples of the application of the FCVAM model at different sites, focusing on the parameters directly related to geomorphology in addition to the

surge height parameter by determining the return period (1, 10, 100, 1000 years).

present sediment supply to the region to the natural state sediment supply in Ozyurt (2007). This parameter covers the sediment trapped in dams or reservoirs at the upstream of the river, the excavation of the coastal zone, mining and changes in land use. It defines the sediment particle itself and the abundance of it through different mechanisms, including the control structures on rivers that trap sediment. On the other hand, the river flow regulation parameter shows the degree of impact of any regulative structure on rivers at the down drift in terms of flow rate by using the methodology of Nilsson et al. (2005) relating to the flow regulation index (Ozyurt, 2007). This parameter focuses on the modification of the flow rate and the change in sediment movement along the river. As is well-documented in the literature, unregulated rivers carry the most sediment, partly because sediment is not trapped behind dams and partly because of the flushing of the river channel during floods or else high flow rates. While control structures enable stable flow rates, this change decreases the amount of sediment carried to the coastal area by generating favourable conditions for the settling of sediment particles along river channels (Ozyurt, 2010). The reduction of the sediment supply and river flow regulation parameters dictate the spatial scale (that is, if there is a river within the coastal zone then the basin is automatically included in the assessment as well as the associated processes influencing the geomorphology such as sediment transport). River basin management authorities can provide the necessary information for both parameters and this automatically secures the integration of other stakeholders - especially the ones along the river basin - as well.

Many structures, such as groins, seawalls, breakwaters and revetments, occupy coastal areas for different purposes, including the control of erosion and land loss. However, these structures themselves initiate undesirable impacts on the sedimentary processes of the region or neighbouring regions. Structures parallel to the coast - such as seawalls cause the erosion of land in front of the structure and - in time - the whole of the land is lost if no other measure is put into practice. Although coastal protection structures may have a negative impact on adjacent shores, properly designed structures control the erosion and even initiate accretion within their region. Thus, coastal protection structures can decrease the vulnerability of the region when they work properly, achieving the intended results if adapted to sea level rise. If no adaptation measures are taken, these structures will lose their efficiency and, therefore, the vulnerability of the region will be increased.

Two parameters (engineered frontage and coastal protection structures) are included in the FCVAM so as to integrate the intervention of man-made structures on the coastal processes that alter coastal geomorphology. The engineered frontage parameter shows the percentage of the shoreline that the coastal structures occupies. This parameter includes all coastal structures (such as harbours, marinas, jetties and navigation channels) that do not have any purpose relating to the protection of the shoreline as well as coastal protection structures, which might cause adverse effects on adjacent shorelines. The coastal protection structures parameter, on the other hand, shows the percentage of shoreline that the coastal protection structures (such as groins and seawalls) occupy. As previously mentioned, coastal protection structures increase the resilience of the region if properly designed and adapted to sea level rise scenarios.

present sediment supply to the region to the natural state sediment supply in Ozyurt (2007). This parameter covers the sediment trapped in dams or reservoirs at the upstream of the river, the excavation of the coastal zone, mining and changes in land use. It defines the sediment particle itself and the abundance of it through different mechanisms, including the control structures on rivers that trap sediment. On the other hand, the river flow regulation parameter shows the degree of impact of any regulative structure on rivers at the down drift in terms of flow rate by using the methodology of Nilsson et al. (2005) relating to the flow regulation index (Ozyurt, 2007). This parameter focuses on the modification of the flow rate and the change in sediment movement along the river. As is well-documented in the literature, unregulated rivers carry the most sediment, partly because sediment is not trapped behind dams and partly because of the flushing of the river channel during floods or else high flow rates. While control structures enable stable flow rates, this change decreases the amount of sediment carried to the coastal area by generating favourable conditions for the settling of sediment particles along river channels (Ozyurt, 2010). The reduction of the sediment supply and river flow regulation parameters dictate the spatial scale (that is, if there is a river within the coastal zone then the basin is automatically included in the assessment as well as the associated processes influencing the geomorphology such as sediment transport). River basin management authorities can provide the necessary information for both parameters and this automatically secures the integration of other stakeholders - especially the ones along the

Many structures, such as groins, seawalls, breakwaters and revetments, occupy coastal areas for different purposes, including the control of erosion and land loss. However, these structures themselves initiate undesirable impacts on the sedimentary processes of the region or neighbouring regions. Structures parallel to the coast - such as seawalls cause the erosion of land in front of the structure and - in time - the whole of the land is lost if no other measure is put into practice. Although coastal protection structures may have a negative impact on adjacent shores, properly designed structures control the erosion and even initiate accretion within their region. Thus, coastal protection structures can decrease the vulnerability of the region when they work properly, achieving the intended results if adapted to sea level rise. If no adaptation measures are taken, these structures will lose their efficiency and, therefore, the vulnerability of the region will be

Two parameters (engineered frontage and coastal protection structures) are included in the FCVAM so as to integrate the intervention of man-made structures on the coastal processes that alter coastal geomorphology. The engineered frontage parameter shows the percentage of the shoreline that the coastal structures occupies. This parameter includes all coastal structures (such as harbours, marinas, jetties and navigation channels) that do not have any purpose relating to the protection of the shoreline as well as coastal protection structures, which might cause adverse effects on adjacent shorelines. The coastal protection structures parameter, on the other hand, shows the percentage of shoreline that the coastal protection structures (such as groins and seawalls) occupy. As previously mentioned, coastal protection structures increase the resilience of the region if properly designed and adapted

river basin - as well.

increased.

to sea level rise scenarios.

Another effect of human activities along coastal areas is the change in the ecosystem that increases the resilience of the coastal area, such as dunes and wetlands. However, these systems are under threat of urbanisation and other anthropogenic pressures. The natural protection degradation parameter shows the status of the ecosystem (such as dunes and marshes and wetlands) which provides protection for the coast. If the system is healthy, then the resilience of the area to the impact of sea level rise is high. For example, dunes act as both sediment supply sources against erosion as well as a barrier to inundation. If there is sand extraction from these dunes, although the area may be naturally resilient human activity significantly decreases this resilience. This change in the ecosystem also affects such the mechanisms as sediment transport which in turn impacts the geomorphologic processes.

In view of the aims of this study, the wave statistics and the spatial scale available for the region control the temporal scale which is used by the FCVAM for assessing coastal erosion vulnerability. For the coastal erosion process, the wave climate is one of the basic governing forces. Although single extreme events such as storms contribute to significant shoreline changes of a short duration, the coastal area always tries to establish equilibrium in the longer term. It is important to underline that storm-based coastal erosion might be more critical at some locations rather than long-term balance. For these locations, high resolution spatial scale and numerical modelling should be applied. This vulnerability might be what governs the natural hazard aspect of ICZM in the short temporal scale. However, if the time scale of sea level rise is considered, longer trends gain in importance. This is the reason for inserting another parameter (the sediment budget parameter) that represents historical and present shoreline movements so as to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas to coastal erosion.

The assessment of vulnerability due to storm surges is another module of the FCVAM (Table 2). Storm surges also have an impact on geomorphologic processes. However, the FCVAM model evaluates the flooding of coastal areas due to storm surges. Nevertheless, the time scale of the assessment - in terms of flooding - can be controlled through the storm surge height parameter by determining the return period (1, 10, 100, 1000 years).

Inundation, saltwater intrusion to groundwater resources and rivers are also included in the FCVAM, and geomorphology has influence on these processes as well (Table 2). Beach slope is the main parameter for the inundation mechanism, which is determined by the type of landform present at the coastal area. The properties of the soil layer and land use have an impact on the recharging of aquifers which, in turn, is included in the groundwater vulnerability assessment module. Also coastal geomorphologic processes significantly influence the geometry of the river mouth, which is represented by river depth in the river vulnerability assessment module. As can be seen, the parameters of the assessment are selected by analysing geomorphology studies for several time and spatial scales as well as other mechanisms. Thus, it would be appropriate to say that the upgrading of the assessment model is highly dependent on the advancement of geomorphology literature.

The next section will present examples of the application of the FCVAM model at different sites, focusing on the parameters directly related to geomorphology in addition to the concept of scale.

Spatial and Time Balancing Act:

**4.2 Case study areas: Viveiro, Spain** 

borders of Viveiro.

**4.3 Case study areas: B'Buga, Malta** 

**4.1 Database** 

Coastal Geomorphology in View of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) 151

The database build by Ozyurt (2010) covers most of the European coastlines from the Baltic Sea to the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea and include information on 79 major river basins and the aquifers of nine EU countries. This variety of coastal properties ensured the compilation of a thorough dataset enabling the application of the model to different coastal areas around the world. The database includes information on all the parameters of the FVCAM model presented in Table 1 and Table 2. Some of the databases used by Ozyurt (2010) form a part of other databases, which are either publicly or commercially available. However, all of the data collected and used by Ozyurt from these databases is available free for research. Some of the studies which were used to develop the database of Ozyurt (2010) were the EUROSION project, the DIVA project, the Digital Dataset of the European Groundwater Resources, the RivDIS dataset, the Waterbase dataset, the WWDII dataset and several national datasets. Details on the representation of different parameters within the developed database and the processes used to develop the GIS-based database are explained in Ozyurt (2010) in detail. The spatial resolution of the compiled dataset is not homogenous throughout European

coasts (for some parameters, only information at a coarser resolution is available).

Viveiro (also known as Vivero) is a town and municipality in the province of Lugo, in the north-western Galician autonomous community of Spain. It has a residential population of over 16,000 (2010 figures), which triples in the summer months with visitors to the coastal region. Viveiro Ria is open to the north and is separated from the Barqueiro Ria by Coelleira Island (Fig. 3) on the lee side of Cape Estaca de Bares. The Landro River has developed an estuary in the inner part of the inlet. Its mouth complex used to present large sand spit, growing eastward from Covas headland. The Viveiro Ria is significantly affected by human occupation. The area includes the important fishing seaport of Celeiro in addition to extensive urbanisation and industrialisation. This occupation affects a large part of the marshland - most of which has been reclaimed - resulting in its current degraded state. Additionally, the highly modified Covas beach has developed between Punta Anchousa to the west and a dike to the east. The construction of the dike and the occupation of the dunes have resulted in a considerable erosion of sand. This loss has been compensated for with artificial regeneration of the beach. Research by Lorenzo et al. (2010) states that "the most significant changes on the beach and spit system have been (1) complete occupation of the dune area of the bar, (2) infilling of the former channel and of the Celeiro inlet, (3) construction of the seawalls of the Celeiro port, and (4) channelling of the Landro River outlet." On the other hand, the coastal strip of the administrative unit is dominated by rocky and medium cliffs, where the cliffs on the eastern side of the bay show signs of erosion. Small pocket beaches also exist along this indented coastal strip of the administrative

The Maltese Islands have a collective shoreline of about 190 km and a surface area of 316 squares kilometres. Rough estimates indicate that only approximately 1.2% of the total land surface is 1m or less above sea level. In fact, the islands' coastline is characterised by cliffs, clay slopes and boulder rocks (Fig. 4). 50% of Malta's coasts and 74% of Gozo's coastline


Table 2. Parameters of the FCVAM model representing other mechanisms included in the model (Ozyurt, 2010).
