**5. Conclusions**

In this chapter we have used market and non-market values to estimate the SLR damages in Greek coastal zone. We have also combined this assessment with a preliminary socioeconomic analysis of coastal vulnerability and risk perceptions. The proposed methodological approach focused on the assessment of two different categories of economic impacts: long term inundation effects of SLR and short-term extreme weather effects. In this assessment we have also incorporated a rough estimation of the losses due to cultural, recreational and other non-consumptive elements of value. In order to reaffirm the policy relevance of applying economic assessment methods in Integrated Coastal Zone Management, UNEP (1999) introduces the notion of 'resource consciousnesses' into its Regional Strategic Environmental Action Plan. It is asserted accordingly that 'raw cost information is insufficient to support investment decisions' what is needed is an investment plan where 'benefits [..] derived from the reduction or avoidance of pollution impacts on resources of social, economic and environmental value' are demonstrated. Moreover, in order for benefit estimates to be of relevance to prospective investors, their definition should include 'the conservation of resource for their existence (or non-use) value' [UNEP 1999, pp. 67-69).

Conservation (ie coastal protection measures) should be adopted if it can be demonstrated that net economic benefits are generated. So we need the total cost of SLR to compare it with the relevant conservation measures (benefit).

Similar results were obtained from the implementation of a similar study in Crete island (January 2011) on the perceptions of locals referring to weather extremes. A random sample of 100 people were personally interviewed. Half of the respondents (50%) is aware of the climate change, while 17.5% has no information on the subject. Regarding the time horizon of the climate change impacts 57.5% of them believe that it is directly influencing their lives. Out of 100 usable questionnaires, 17.5% believe that climate change impacts will be visible and destructive within the next 20 years, while 20% believes so within the next 100 years. Only 5% refused the existence of climate change impacts. As in the Lesvos survey, participants (islanders) were asked to rank and assess the severity of certain impacts. Results are given in Table 15. It is quite conceivable that the majority (97.5%) rank impacts

**simportant Important Very** 

In both surveys water and food availability seem to be the highest social concerns as far

In this chapter we have used market and non-market values to estimate the SLR damages in Greek coastal zone. We have also combined this assessment with a preliminary socioeconomic analysis of coastal vulnerability and risk perceptions. The proposed methodological approach focused on the assessment of two different categories of economic impacts: long term inundation effects of SLR and short-term extreme weather effects. In this assessment we have also incorporated a rough estimation of the losses due to cultural, recreational and other non-consumptive elements of value. In order to reaffirm the policy relevance of applying economic assessment methods in Integrated Coastal Zone Management, UNEP (1999) introduces the notion of 'resource consciousnesses' into its Regional Strategic Environmental Action Plan. It is asserted accordingly that 'raw cost information is insufficient to support investment decisions' what is needed is an investment plan where 'benefits [..] derived from the reduction or avoidance of pollution impacts on resources of social, economic and environmental value' are demonstrated. Moreover, in order for benefit estimates to be of relevance to prospective investors, their definition should include 'the conservation of resource

Conservation (ie coastal protection measures) should be adopted if it can be demonstrated that net economic benefits are generated. So we need the total cost of SLR to compare it with

**Water resources** - 2,5% 17,5% 80% **Ecosystems** 2,5% 5% 40% 52,5% **Food availability** 2,5% 5% 27,5% 65% **Coasts** 2,5% **2,5% 37,5% 57,5% Health** 7,5% 5% 35% 52,5% Table 15. Climate change impacts assesment by survey respondents (Crete island, Greece,

**important** 

**Extremely important** 

on coasts important to extremely important.

specific impacts of climate change are concerned.

for their existence (or non-use) value' [UNEP 1999, pp. 67-69).

the relevant conservation measures (benefit).

**Impacts on Not so** 

January 2011).

**5. Conclusions** 

Tables 16 and 17 present the total SLR cost for discount rates of 1% and 3% correspondingly. Total cost here means the sum of long-term SLR, short-term SLR and non-use values (aesthetic/recreational and cultural/spiritual value loss). The total discounted SLR cost equals 2% of the Greek GDP (in 2010 prices).


Table 16. Present value of total cost of SLR for discount rate 1%.


Table 17. Present value of total cost of SLR for discount rate 3%.

Our study shows that there is an imperative need to study Greek coastal areas that are at high risk of flooding. This need is expanded to the detailed diagnosis/forecasting of the coastal zone's vulnerability also due to changes in the frequency/intensity of extreme weather phenomena (storm surges). From an institutional aspect, EU member states, according to Directive 2007/60/EC, must undertake a preliminary assessment of river basins flood risk (including coastal zone) by year 2011, aiming to identify areas where flooding is likely to occur. Moreover, by year 2013, member states must develop risk assessment maps for these areas, while by year 2015, member states must prepare flood risk management plans for these zones.

The principal determinant of a society's capacity to adapt to climate change is likely to be access to resources. Such access is determined by entitlements, which are often the product of external political factors. Therefore, poverty, inequality, isolation and marginalization can all undermine entitlements of individuals and groups (Adger et al., 2005). In Greece due to the imminent economic crisis the country is currently experiencing, poverty is a threatening factor; inequality is a social characteristic due to corruption; so entitlements of individuals and groups are under threat of undermining. A particularly coastal country facing SLR impacts finds itself within a vulnerable status. Is the country going to bounce back after the economic shock and prepare itself for adaptation to SLR? According to Tompkins et al. (2005) the basic preconditions for resilience are: ability to self-organize, ability to buffer disturbance and capacity for learning and adapting. Or as Handmer (1996) puts it: Stability is sought but change constantly redraws the playing field and demands redefinition of the rules.

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