**Agricultural Technological and Institutional Innovations for Enhanced Adaptation to Environmental Change in North Africa**

Ali Nefzaoui, Habib Ketata and Mohammed El Mourid *International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) North Africa Program, Tunis, Tunisia* 

## **1. Introduction**

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North Africa typically is a dry region, comprising the countries of Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, and Libya, where four subregions may be easily distinguished, namely (i) a northern subhumid coastal subregion, bordering the Mediterranean sea (and the Atlantic Ocean for western Morocco), where average annual rainfall is relatively high, generally above 500 mm and where soils are relatively good for farming; (ii) a semi-arid elevated subregion flanking the first subregion from the southern side, from which it is separated by the Atlas mountains and where rainfall is around 300-500 mm, and soils are light calcareous silt-loam; it is bordered on the southern side by (iii) an arid, lower-altitude subregion, with silt-sandy soils and an average rainfall of 100-300 mm; and (iv) Sahara desert subregion covering the largest part of the countries. Libya is predominantly (90%) desert land, except for a narrow coastal area where some agriculture is practiced. Therefore, reference in this chapter will be mainly made to the 3 countries of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia.

North Africa is marked by an acute water scarcity, combined with a highly variable Mediterranean climate. While the average world per capita share of fresh water is 7000 cubic meter (m3), all three North African countries are below the water poverty threshold of 1000 m3 (Table 1). Agriculture uses the largest share (up to 80%) of available water resources in North Africa where rainfed cropping predominates. The scarcity of natural water resources, combined with the highly variable and generally very low rainfall in most of the region explain in part the low agricultural productivity, especially of key crop commodities, and the reliance of North African countries on food imports to meet their growing national demands; this is especially true for Algeria that has the largest population, and the lowest agricultural contribution to country GDP and to total employment. Water scarcity is further exacerbated by the competition for water from domestic and industrial uses, and the increasing population and urbanization. Cereal crops, mainly wheat and barley, are the major crop commodities grown in North Africa, but their contribution to national food security and household income remains low (Table 1).

Agricultural Technological and Institutional

Emission composition (%):

Houerou, 2000).

Innovations for Enhanced Adaptation to Environmental Change in North Africa 59

will lead to salt water intrusion and salinization of irrigation water (IPCC, 2007). In fact, the frequency of drought in Morocco, for example, has been independently reported (Magnan et al., 2011) to have increased from 1 in 8 years during the period 1940-1979, to 1 in 3 years during 1980-1995, and to 1 in 2 years during 1996-2002. Also, North Africa has been identified as a hot-spot for vulnerability to climate change, based on the analysis of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data for the period 1982-2000 (De-Pauw, 2008).

GHG emissions Algeria Morocco Tunisia Total emissions (million TE-CO2 ) 103.14 63.34 20.8 Annual per capita emissions (TE-CO2 ) 3.0 1.98 2.15

The livestock sector has been described as a major contributor to global warming, accounting for 18% of the world anthropogenic GHG emissions, namely carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) (Koneswaran & Nierenberg, 2008; Steinfeld et al., 2006). Such large contribution of livestock to global warming is primarily the result of the highly intensive livestock system in well endowed, temperate regions of the world. In contrast, the livestock system in North Africa is primarily extensive in nature, where the dominant animals are sheep and goats, essentially raised in open rangeland fields, within the arid and semi-arid areas receiving less than 200 mm of rainfall and no fertilizer, apart from grazing animal manure. Such livestock contributes comparatively little to GHG emissions as compared to intensive livestock systems found in Europe and similar regions. However, rangelands in North Africa are subject to severe degradation, primarily because of cropping encroachment, which is responsible for 50% of rangeland degradation, versus 26% accounted for by overgrazing and 21% by fuel wood utilization. This trend opposes clearly that of the temperate areas, where overgrazing accounts for 70 % of land degradation (Le

The food commodity crisis of 2008 brought-up awareness of the serious threat to food security in many of the world areas, including North Africa, where policy makers realized the importance of food production uncertainty imposed by the vagaries of changing climate and the repercussions it may impose on social and political stability. In all North African countries, swift decisions were taken to encourage farmers and other food producers assure the highest degree possible for self-sufficiency in strategic food commodities. All countries prepared a multi-year plan to boost local agriculture production, taking into consideration climate change and necessary mitigation and adaptation measures. For example, Tunisia developed a national strategy for dealing with climate change (CC) based on the implementation of specific CC studies and a national action plan for adapting to CC. The studies indicated that by year 2020, temperature will have increased by 0.8oC-1.3oC and rainfall dropped by 5-10%, depending on region (Dali, 2008). These effects will impact unfavorably on water resources, ecosystems and agro-systems (including olives, fruit, livestock and rainfed annual crops). Results also indicated a possible 50-cm sea level rise by year 2100, threatening coastal ecosystems and marine biodiversity. Several projects have


Table 2. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in North African countries (2000).


Table 1. Selected agricultural characteristics for three North African countries.

To lessen their dependence on highly unpredictable cereal harvests, small-scale farmers may also maintain a small-ruminant (sheep and goats) raising activity that provides them a buffer against poor crop harvest or crop failure in severe-drought years. In fact, the cereallivestock system forms the backbone of agriculture in the semi-arid zones in contrast to the arid regions where small ruminant raising is the major agricultural activity. Horticultural crops and specific high value fruits (citrus fruits, grapes, etc.) are produced under moisturefavorable conditions in subhumid areas or under irrigation in other areas. Extensive cultivation of olives and other drought tolerant trees are generally produced under rainfed conditions in semi-arid and arid areas. Dates are produced in arid regions or in oases within desert areas.

The future of agriculture in North Africa is further threatened by unfavorable climate change that is expected to drastically affect agriculture productivity and people's livelihoods. The rest of the chapter describes the perceived effects of climate change on natural resources and livelihoods of agropastoral communities in the region. Successful tools and approaches deployed to face climate change are highlighted, including both technological and institutional innovations.
