**Linking Sea Level Rise Damage and Vulnerability Assessment: The Case of Greece**

Areti Kontogianni1, Christos Tourkolias1,

Michalis Skourtos1 and Maria Papanikolaou2 *1University of Aegean, School of the Environment, Mytilini, Lesvos, 2Cambridge Quaternary Department of Geography & University of Athens, Department of Geology and Geo-Environment, Greece* 

#### **1. Introduction**

374 International Perspectives on Global Environmental Change

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Throughout the course of modern history, coasts have been a substantial means of human development and an ever-growing number of people still continue to colonize the coasts worldwide. Coasts comprise dynamic and complex socio-ecological systems, encompassing a variety of biotic and abiotic elements. Their complexity and dynamics are reflected in the multiplicity of their forms. Their dynamic nature is responsible for their high productivity, leading both to periodic changes and gradual mutation. The marine ecosystems, by storing carbon dioxide and by releasing oxygen to the atmosphere through the living processes of the phytoplankton population, play a significant role in regulating climate. The coastal areas help create and preserve microclimates. The existence of coastal forests and wetlands ensures minimization of floods, erosion and other natural disasters, and offers valuable regulating and supporting ecosystem services. The importance of coastal resources for the prosperity of coastal areas can be specified through the ecosystem services and goods, which support the human life (Daily, 1997; Turner et al., 2001; Beaumont, 2007; Kontogianni et al., 2010a). The categorization of coastal services and goods is presented in Table 1.

However, the ensuing anthropogenic activities of industrialization and economic growth have brought the coastal areas under intense pressure. Climatic change accentuates these pressures while it makes mean sea level rise (SLR) one of the most predictable and alarming impacts globally (Church et al., 2001; Nicholls, 2007). To make things worse, SLR is known to be rather inelastic against the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (OECD, 2006), a phenomenon known as "commitment to SLR". That is, even if drastic reduction policies globally succeed in stabilizing the climate, SLR and the accompanying phenomena of coastal erosion and storm surges will continue to occur for centuries (Meehl et al., 2005; Wigley, 2005), causing possible tipping points for some systems (Tipping Points Report, 2009).

This chapter examines the impacts of SLR on the Greek coastal zone and appraises their economic dimension. Researchers engaged in studies like this face two important issues. The first is the quantification of the economic impacts (damages) caused by the losses of coastal areas due to SLR. The second is the *ex ante* estimation of welfare gains from reducing SLR risks, since this estimation constitutes an important input for decision-making regarding

Linking Sea Level Rise Damage and Vulnerability Assessment: The Case of Greece 377

low-lying areas and saltwater intrusion, yet without implementing the monetary evaluation of the triggered impacts or the calculation of the necessary investment cost of adaptation policies. Pruszak and Zawadzka (2008) estimated total economic and social costs of land loss and flood risk in Polish coastal zone considering two scenarios of SLR (30 cm and 100 cm in 100 years). Kont et al. (2008) studied the impacts of SLR (1 m in 2100) on the coastal zone of Estonia without the implementation of adaptation measures. The coastal zone was studied either in the case of inundation by SLR or in the case of storm surges and the impacts were quantified in both physical and monetary terms. Sterr (2008) assessed the vulnerability (in economic terms) for five coastal states in Germany in the case of 1 m SLR and estimated the required costs for protection. Aunan and Romstad (2008) studied the potential damages from SLR to roads, bridges and port infrastructure in Norway based on possible restoration costs. Karacat and Nicholls (2008) performed a preliminary assessment of the potential costs due to SLR (1 m) in Turkey and the required investment costs for prevention. Devoy (2008) examined the physical components of coastal vulnerability to SLR in Ireland and presented available estimates for the capital value loss and the protection/adaptation costs assuming a

This chapter is structured as follows: in section 2 we provide a description of the Greek coastal zone and its vulnerability. In section 3 we lay out our research hypotheses, methodology and sources of data. In section 4 we estimate the financial impacts (damages) of both long-term and short-term SLR. At last, in section 5, we summarize and conclude the

**2. Ecosystem service and vulnerability assessment of the Greek coastal zone**  According to the ATEAM (2004), Mediterranean is considered the most vulnerable coastal

Knowledge of the vulnerability and ability to adapt to climate change is valuable for

Vulnerability holds several definitions. One of those refers to the degree to which an ecosystem service is sensitive to global change, plus the degree to which the sector that

Vulnerability is also assessed by the ATEAM (2004) as the likelihood of a specific humanenvironment system to experience harm due to exposure to perturbations, accounting for the process of adaptation. According to the ATEAM, high potential impact and low adaptive capacity constitutes a high degree of vulnerability for the system. Adaptive capacity according to Brooks (2003) has no direct implications to current vulnerability and can only diminish future vulnerability. IPCC (2007) defines adaptive capacity as the ability of a human-environment system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to

According to IPCC, vulnerability is a function of the sensitivity of a system to changes in climate (the degree to which a system will respond to a given change in climate, including beneficial and harmful effects), adaptive capacity (the degree to which adjustments in practices, processes, or structures can moderate or offset the potential for damage or take advantage of opportunities created by a given change in climate), and the degree of

part of Europe with multiple potential impacts and low generic adaptive capacity.

relies on this service is unable to adapt to the changes (Metzger et al., 2004).

adopting suitable policies for both natural and social systems.

exposure of the system to climatic hazards (IPCC, 2001).

scenario of SLR equal to 1 m until 2100.

cope with the consequences.

chapter.

policy and technical measures (mitigation and adaptation measures). Cost-benefit analysis is used as a tool for prioritization among different policy goals. Therefore, methodologically, it must succeed in associating economic estimates with measurable physical indicators, so that researchers are well aware of exactly what is being appraised (Kontogianni et al., 2010a; Sonderquist et al., 2008). Changes in physical indicators mostly refer to non-tradeable environmental goods (magnitudes) (e.g. human health, biodiversity conservation, quality of ecosystems etc). Due to the difficulty in appraising their economic value, they are usually not taken into consideration in decision making, thereby they constitute an external cost. A multidisciplinary approach, in order to be integrated and successful, has to deal with the coevolutionary aspects of both natural and socio-economic system, known together as the 'socio-ecological' system (Folke et al., 2002).


Table 1. Categorization of services and goods in the coastal environment (Source: Adapted from Garpe, 2008 & ΜΕΑ, 2005).

As pointed out in the latest national report submitted to the UNFCCC regarding climate change (Hellenic Republic, 2006), no coordinated effort to assess the long-term impacts of SLR and to design appropriate adaptation policies has been as yet conducted in Greece. To our knowledge and to date, only two studies have calculated the monetary losses of SLR for the Greek coastal zone. Dalianis et al. (1997) calculated the total cost of impacts caused by SLR (1-m) in Greece by 2100. The total cost was estimated at €3.4 billion. The authors cite IPCC's first Assessment Report as the source of their monetary estimates. The research program PESETA estimated the future impacts on coastal areas from SLR for 22 European countries including Greece (Richards & Nicholls, 2009; Vafeidis et al., 2008). The analysis was performed with a combination of the integrated model DIVA (Dynamic and Interactive Vulnerability Assessment Tool) and the scenarios A2 and B2 of the IPCC. The calculation of damages in the Greek coastal zone was restricted to land loss due to erosion and flooding and the ensuing human migration.

Few similar attempts have been performed to date in European scale. Sanchez-Arcilla et al. (2008) examined the implications of climatic change on the Ebro delta coast (Spain). Their research focused on the effects of climatic changes in wave return periods, inundation of

policy and technical measures (mitigation and adaptation measures). Cost-benefit analysis is used as a tool for prioritization among different policy goals. Therefore, methodologically, it must succeed in associating economic estimates with measurable physical indicators, so that researchers are well aware of exactly what is being appraised (Kontogianni et al., 2010a; Sonderquist et al., 2008). Changes in physical indicators mostly refer to non-tradeable environmental goods (magnitudes) (e.g. human health, biodiversity conservation, quality of ecosystems etc). Due to the difficulty in appraising their economic value, they are usually not taken into consideration in decision making, thereby they constitute an external cost. A multidisciplinary approach, in order to be integrated and successful, has to deal with the coevolutionary aspects of both natural and socio-economic system, known together as the

Supportive services Regulating services

Provisioning services Cultural services

Table 1. Categorization of services and goods in the coastal environment (Source: Adapted

As pointed out in the latest national report submitted to the UNFCCC regarding climate change (Hellenic Republic, 2006), no coordinated effort to assess the long-term impacts of SLR and to design appropriate adaptation policies has been as yet conducted in Greece. To our knowledge and to date, only two studies have calculated the monetary losses of SLR for the Greek coastal zone. Dalianis et al. (1997) calculated the total cost of impacts caused by SLR (1-m) in Greece by 2100. The total cost was estimated at €3.4 billion. The authors cite IPCC's first Assessment Report as the source of their monetary estimates. The research program PESETA estimated the future impacts on coastal areas from SLR for 22 European countries including Greece (Richards & Nicholls, 2009; Vafeidis et al., 2008). The analysis was performed with a combination of the integrated model DIVA (Dynamic and Interactive Vulnerability Assessment Tool) and the scenarios A2 and B2 of the IPCC. The calculation of damages in the Greek coastal zone was restricted to land loss due to erosion and flooding

Few similar attempts have been performed to date in European scale. Sanchez-Arcilla et al. (2008) examined the implications of climatic change on the Ebro delta coast (Spain). Their research focused on the effects of climatic changes in wave return periods, inundation of

1 Atmospheric regulation 2 Local climate regulation 3 Sediment retention 4 Biological regulation 5 Pollution control 6 Eutrophication mitigation

1 Recreation 2 Aesthetic values 3 Science and education 4 Cultural heritage 5 Inspiration 6 The legacy of nature

'socio-ecological' system (Folke et al., 2002).

1 Biogeochemical cycling 2 Primary production 3 Food web dynamics 4 Diversity 5 Habitat 6 Resilience

1 Food 2 Inedible resources 3 Genetic resources 4 Chemical resources 5 Ornamental resources 6 Energy resources 7 Space and waterways

from Garpe, 2008 & ΜΕΑ, 2005).

and the ensuing human migration.

low-lying areas and saltwater intrusion, yet without implementing the monetary evaluation of the triggered impacts or the calculation of the necessary investment cost of adaptation policies. Pruszak and Zawadzka (2008) estimated total economic and social costs of land loss and flood risk in Polish coastal zone considering two scenarios of SLR (30 cm and 100 cm in 100 years). Kont et al. (2008) studied the impacts of SLR (1 m in 2100) on the coastal zone of Estonia without the implementation of adaptation measures. The coastal zone was studied either in the case of inundation by SLR or in the case of storm surges and the impacts were quantified in both physical and monetary terms. Sterr (2008) assessed the vulnerability (in economic terms) for five coastal states in Germany in the case of 1 m SLR and estimated the required costs for protection. Aunan and Romstad (2008) studied the potential damages from SLR to roads, bridges and port infrastructure in Norway based on possible restoration costs. Karacat and Nicholls (2008) performed a preliminary assessment of the potential costs due to SLR (1 m) in Turkey and the required investment costs for prevention. Devoy (2008) examined the physical components of coastal vulnerability to SLR in Ireland and presented available estimates for the capital value loss and the protection/adaptation costs assuming a scenario of SLR equal to 1 m until 2100.

This chapter is structured as follows: in section 2 we provide a description of the Greek coastal zone and its vulnerability. In section 3 we lay out our research hypotheses, methodology and sources of data. In section 4 we estimate the financial impacts (damages) of both long-term and short-term SLR. At last, in section 5, we summarize and conclude the chapter.

## **2. Ecosystem service and vulnerability assessment of the Greek coastal zone**

According to the ATEAM (2004), Mediterranean is considered the most vulnerable coastal part of Europe with multiple potential impacts and low generic adaptive capacity.

Knowledge of the vulnerability and ability to adapt to climate change is valuable for adopting suitable policies for both natural and social systems.

Vulnerability holds several definitions. One of those refers to the degree to which an ecosystem service is sensitive to global change, plus the degree to which the sector that relies on this service is unable to adapt to the changes (Metzger et al., 2004).

Vulnerability is also assessed by the ATEAM (2004) as the likelihood of a specific humanenvironment system to experience harm due to exposure to perturbations, accounting for the process of adaptation. According to the ATEAM, high potential impact and low adaptive capacity constitutes a high degree of vulnerability for the system. Adaptive capacity according to Brooks (2003) has no direct implications to current vulnerability and can only diminish future vulnerability. IPCC (2007) defines adaptive capacity as the ability of a human-environment system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.

According to IPCC, vulnerability is a function of the sensitivity of a system to changes in climate (the degree to which a system will respond to a given change in climate, including beneficial and harmful effects), adaptive capacity (the degree to which adjustments in practices, processes, or structures can moderate or offset the potential for damage or take advantage of opportunities created by a given change in climate), and the degree of exposure of the system to climatic hazards (IPCC, 2001).

Linking Sea Level Rise Damage and Vulnerability Assessment: The Case of Greece 379

Greece, construction of summer residence occurs too close to the coast (Figure 1), increasing social vulnerability in the case of SLR. Construction near the coast happens due to the fact that tides in the Mediterranean do not exceed 40 cm. So, vulnerability rises due to the increased exposure of coastal constructions and the growing number of people colonizing

Fig. 1. Storm surge in Molyvos coast, Lesvos island, Greece, December 2009 (photo T. Karabas). All the aforementioned coastal resources contribute to the development of cultural services, such as leisure, aesthetics, and ability to perform scientific and educational activities, conservation of cultural heritage and cultural capital, also through arts, philosophy and inspirational sources. The coastal ecosystem services regulate, support and supply, in both natural and cultural terms, the Greek social capital through generations at a scale that

All the above ecosystem services provided by the Greek coastal zone lead to the conclusion that such an important natural resource should be worthy of respect and protection. The threats to the Greek coastal and marine environment stem mostly from anthropogenic driving forces (e.g. overexploitation of natural resources, urbanization, pollution, eutrophication, and invasive species). A major problem of the Greek coastal zone is the high rate of coastline erosion: over 20% of the total coastline is threatened making Greece the 4th most vulnerable country, among the 22 coastal EU member states, in terms of coastal erosion (EUROSION, 2004). Major causes for the increased erosion are the particularly strong winds and the storm surges in the Aegean Sea, the anthropogenic interventions (e.g. dams which reduce sediment input, Poulos et al., 2002) as well as the geomorphologic substrate of the coastline: the 2,400 km (15% of the total shoreline) correspond to non consolidated sediment deposits, while 960 km (6% of the total shoreline) correspond to coastal deltaic areas (Papanikolaou et al., 2010). Erosion is expected to increase in the immediate future due to (a) the foreseen rise of the mean sea level, (b) the intensification of extreme wave phenomena

exceeds the local and can be historically projected to a European and global level.

the Mediterranean coasts.

Adger et al. (2004) adopt another approach by separating biophysical from social vulnerability. Vulnerability, according to Brooks et al. (2005), depends critically on context, and the factors that make a system vulnerable to a hazard will depend on the nature of the system and the type of hazard in question. Resilience is used to define two specific system attributes: The amount of disturbance a system can absorb and still remain within the same state or domain of attraction; the degree to which the system is capable of self-organization. (Klein et al., 2004). Handmer (1996) defines vulnerability generally as susceptibility to injury which may be seen as inversely related to resilience: the more resilient one system, the less vulnerable.

A typical case study of the `vulnerability` issue, described in the preceding paragraphs, is the Greek coastal zone. An assessment of coastal ecosystem goods and services in Greece and their physical geographic vulnerability are discussed below. We refer to the social vulnerability and relevant risk perceptions in section 4.3.

The Greek coastal zone has a total length of approximately 16,200 km, being one of the longest coastal zones among European countries. Almost half of the coastal zone belongs to the continental Greece while the remaining half to the 3,000 islands (or 9,800 if islets are included). The importance of the main categories of coastal goods and services (Table 1) provided by the coastal Greek area is described below (YPEXODE 2006, Zanou 2003).

About 33% of the Greek population inhabits coastal areas located at 1-2 km distance from the coast. If we consider coastal population as those inhabiting areas up to 50 km from the coast, then the percentage of Greek coastal population reaches 85% of the total. Twelve out of the thirteen Prefectures of the Greek territory are registered as coastal areas, while the largest urban centres are located in the coastal zone. About 80% of industrial activities, 90% of tourism and recreational activities, 35% of agriculture (usually of high productivity), fisheries and aquaculture, as well as an important part of infrastructures (ports, airports, roads, electricity and telecommunications network etc) are located in the coastal zone. The added value created in the coastal zone includes:


The fishery and aquaculture sectors are important due to their contribution to the Greek GDP, but mostly due to their role in fostering and preserving social and cultural cohesion of the coastal areas. The fishery sector in 1999 had 40,000 employees, with a total production of 231,000 tn, while the number of directly employed in aquacultures is 4,800 and the number of indirectly employed exceeds 7,500 employees.

The coastal zone consists of variable habitats, which contribute to the conservation of biogenetic reserves. Indicatively, over 6,000 different flora species, 670 vertebrate species and 436 avifauna species are found in coastal zones.

Over the last 20 years (1990-2010), there has been an increase in construction of summer residences at the Greek coastal areas (YPEXODE, 2006). The overall urbanized coastal zone area is estimated to be 1,315 km2, accounting for 1.31% of the total Greek coastal zone. In

Adger et al. (2004) adopt another approach by separating biophysical from social vulnerability. Vulnerability, according to Brooks et al. (2005), depends critically on context, and the factors that make a system vulnerable to a hazard will depend on the nature of the system and the type of hazard in question. Resilience is used to define two specific system attributes: The amount of disturbance a system can absorb and still remain within the same state or domain of attraction; the degree to which the system is capable of self-organization. (Klein et al., 2004). Handmer (1996) defines vulnerability generally as susceptibility to injury which may be seen

A typical case study of the `vulnerability` issue, described in the preceding paragraphs, is the Greek coastal zone. An assessment of coastal ecosystem goods and services in Greece and their physical geographic vulnerability are discussed below. We refer to the social

The Greek coastal zone has a total length of approximately 16,200 km, being one of the longest coastal zones among European countries. Almost half of the coastal zone belongs to the continental Greece while the remaining half to the 3,000 islands (or 9,800 if islets are included). The importance of the main categories of coastal goods and services (Table 1) provided by the coastal Greek area is described below (YPEXODE 2006, Zanou 2003). About 33% of the Greek population inhabits coastal areas located at 1-2 km distance from the coast. If we consider coastal population as those inhabiting areas up to 50 km from the coast, then the percentage of Greek coastal population reaches 85% of the total. Twelve out of the thirteen Prefectures of the Greek territory are registered as coastal areas, while the largest urban centres are located in the coastal zone. About 80% of industrial activities, 90% of tourism and recreational activities, 35% of agriculture (usually of high productivity), fisheries and aquaculture, as well as an important part of infrastructures (ports, airports, roads, electricity and telecommunications network etc) are located in the coastal zone. The





The fishery and aquaculture sectors are important due to their contribution to the Greek GDP, but mostly due to their role in fostering and preserving social and cultural cohesion of the coastal areas. The fishery sector in 1999 had 40,000 employees, with a total production of 231,000 tn, while the number of directly employed in aquacultures is 4,800 and the number

The coastal zone consists of variable habitats, which contribute to the conservation of biogenetic reserves. Indicatively, over 6,000 different flora species, 670 vertebrate species

Over the last 20 years (1990-2010), there has been an increase in construction of summer residences at the Greek coastal areas (YPEXODE, 2006). The overall urbanized coastal zone area is estimated to be 1,315 km2, accounting for 1.31% of the total Greek coastal zone. In

as inversely related to resilience: the more resilient one system, the less vulnerable.

vulnerability and relevant risk perceptions in section 4.3.

added value created in the coastal zone includes:


production of the 25 EU member-states)

of indirectly employed exceeds 7,500 employees.

and 436 avifauna species are found in coastal zones.

transported annually

EU member-states)

foreign tourists.

Greece, construction of summer residence occurs too close to the coast (Figure 1), increasing social vulnerability in the case of SLR. Construction near the coast happens due to the fact that tides in the Mediterranean do not exceed 40 cm. So, vulnerability rises due to the increased exposure of coastal constructions and the growing number of people colonizing the Mediterranean coasts.

Fig. 1. Storm surge in Molyvos coast, Lesvos island, Greece, December 2009 (photo T. Karabas).

All the aforementioned coastal resources contribute to the development of cultural services, such as leisure, aesthetics, and ability to perform scientific and educational activities, conservation of cultural heritage and cultural capital, also through arts, philosophy and inspirational sources. The coastal ecosystem services regulate, support and supply, in both natural and cultural terms, the Greek social capital through generations at a scale that exceeds the local and can be historically projected to a European and global level.

All the above ecosystem services provided by the Greek coastal zone lead to the conclusion that such an important natural resource should be worthy of respect and protection. The threats to the Greek coastal and marine environment stem mostly from anthropogenic driving forces (e.g. overexploitation of natural resources, urbanization, pollution, eutrophication, and invasive species). A major problem of the Greek coastal zone is the high rate of coastline erosion: over 20% of the total coastline is threatened making Greece the 4th most vulnerable country, among the 22 coastal EU member states, in terms of coastal erosion (EUROSION, 2004). Major causes for the increased erosion are the particularly strong winds and the storm surges in the Aegean Sea, the anthropogenic interventions (e.g. dams which reduce sediment input, Poulos et al., 2002) as well as the geomorphologic substrate of the coastline: the 2,400 km (15% of the total shoreline) correspond to non consolidated sediment deposits, while 960 km (6% of the total shoreline) correspond to coastal deltaic areas (Papanikolaou et al., 2010). Erosion is expected to increase in the immediate future due to (a) the foreseen rise of the mean sea level, (b) the intensification of extreme wave phenomena

Linking Sea Level Rise Damage and Vulnerability Assessment: The Case of Greece 381

In Figure 2, coastal areas are subdivided into: (a) those classified as of medium vulnerability to SLR (green colour) consisting of non consolidated sediment deposits in areas with low altitude, (b) those classified as of high vulnerability to SLR including deltaic deposits in low altitude (red colour). High risk areas are deltaic areas such as Evinos in Messolonghi, Kalama in Igoumenitsa, Acheloos, Mornos at the Corinthian Gulf, Pineios, Alfeios, Aliakmonas and Axios at the Thermaic Gulf, the area of North Aegean near Platamona, Amphipolis, Strymon, Nestos (to Abdyra), the Ebros, and the deltaic areas in Malliakos, Amvrakikos, Messiniakos and Argolikos Gulfs. Black colour indicates areas with altitudes below 20 m, usually of loose sedimentary deposits. The other zones designated as coastal

Assessing the severity of the rising sea level impacts on coastal areas includes uncertainties

a. The intensity of sea level rise, which ranges between 0.2 and 2 meters. The evolution of the sea level rise is determined by the interaction between several natural (e.g. astronomical parameters) and anthropogenic (e.g. greenhouse gas) forces. The severity of each one of these will also determine the overall development of the climate cycle we are currently in, which seems to be at the peak of today's "warm" interglacial period. b. The relationship between the tectonic elevation and the eustatic sea level rise which, for many areas of the Greek territory is quite significant, to the extent that it may

c. the sedimentation of clastic materials in coastal areas, which is determined by geological and climate conditions but also by anthropogenic interventions (e.g. dams, river sand mining), which for instance in the case of river deltas, may alter their

The estimation of the length of these three types of coastal areas shows that from a total of 16,200 km, 960 km (6%) corresponds to deltaic areas of high vulnerability (red colour), 2,400 km (15%) to non consolidated sediments of medium vulnerability (green colour) and the remaining 12,810 km (79%) to rocky coastal areas of low vulnerability. Therefore, the total coastline length characterized by medium to high vulnerability to SLR is about 3,360 km

Typical approximate values of flooded coastal areas and shoreline retreat (excluding the tectonics and geodynamics corrections) triggered by a possible SLR equal to 0.5 m and 1 m in high risk areas are presented in Table 2. This table illustrates the impacts of SLR as estimated in 27 Greek coastal zone case studies. Available case studies were surveyed through a literature review till September 2010. The coastal land retreat for a hypothetical increase of SLR equal to 0.5 m ranges from 15 m to 2,750 m, while the range for a hypothetical increase of 1 m ranges from 400 m to 6,500 m. Figure 3 maps the geographical

The selected case studies used for the economic assessment of SLR impacts on Greek coastal zone are: C1: Skala Eressos Mytilene, C2: Gulf of Nafplio, C3: Lagoon Kotichiou, C4: Hersonissos Crete, C5: Aigio Achaias, C6: Lambi Kos, C7: Kardamaina Kos, C8: Tigaki Kos, C9: Afantou Rhodes, C10: Vartholomio Ileias, C11: Acheloos River Delta, C12: Plain of Thessaloniki, C13: Abdyra Xanthi, C14: Lake Alyki Limnos, C15: Saltmarsh Kitrous Pierias, C16: Porto Heli, C17: Ermioni, C18: Evinos River Delta, C19: Mornos River Delta, C20: Kalama River Delta, C21: Penaeus River Delta, C22: Thermaic Gulf (includes Axios River Delta, Aliakmonas River Delta, Loudias-Aliakmonas Deltaic plain), C23: Kiparissiakos Gulf (includes Alfeios River Delta -

northern part and Alfeios River Delta - southern part), C24: South Euboean Gulf.

areas of a low vulnerability are mainly rocky and high altitude coastal regions.

counterbalance or locally exceed the sea level rise.

representing 21% of the Greek shoreline (Papanikolaou et al., 2010).

vulnerability to the sea level rise.

distribution of the examined case studies.

with regard to:

and (c) the further reduction of the river sediment inflows due to changes in rainfall and construction of river management works (Emanuel, 2005; IPCC, 2007; Velegrakis, 2010).

A reliable assessment of the potential risk associated with SLR should take into account not only the trends and rates of eustatic SLR, but consider also such local factors as tectonics, sediment supply and compaction, and storm surges (Poulos & Collins, 2002; Vött, 2007).

Especially the role of tectonism is important in tectonically active zones because it can counterbalance the relative SLR. Typical examples constitute the coastal zone of northern Peloponnese with an uplift rate ranging between 0.3 and 1.5 mm/year, Crete with an uplift rate between 0.7 and 4 mm/year and Rhodes between 1.2 and 1.9 mm/year. Thus, a supposed average value of 4.3 mm/year SLR would be reduced to 3.5 mm/year due to the counteraction of a mean tectonic uplift of about 0.8 mm/year (Papanikolaou et al., 2010). The expected sea level rise could also be locally offset by the increased fluvial sediment input and deposition in deltaic plains and resultant advance of the shoreline (Poulos et al., 2002). On the contrary, reduced fluvial sediment input in deltaic plains would reinforce sea inundation due to sea level rise. An important factor in the vulnerability of coastal areas to SLR is the coastal morphology (i.e. slope and lithological composition) because it is related directly to the rate of erosion. The latter can range from very high (several m/year) in the case of low-lying land to low (approximately mm/year) in the case of hard coastal limestone formations (e.g. cliffs).

Fig. 2. Coastal areas in Greece with medium (green colour) and high (red colour) vulnerability. Black colour indicates areas with altitudes below 20 m, usually of loose sedimentary deposits. (Source: Papanikolaou et al., 2010)

and (c) the further reduction of the river sediment inflows due to changes in rainfall and construction of river management works (Emanuel, 2005; IPCC, 2007; Velegrakis, 2010). A reliable assessment of the potential risk associated with SLR should take into account not only the trends and rates of eustatic SLR, but consider also such local factors as tectonics, sediment supply and compaction, and storm surges (Poulos & Collins, 2002; Vött, 2007). Especially the role of tectonism is important in tectonically active zones because it can counterbalance the relative SLR. Typical examples constitute the coastal zone of northern Peloponnese with an uplift rate ranging between 0.3 and 1.5 mm/year, Crete with an uplift rate between 0.7 and 4 mm/year and Rhodes between 1.2 and 1.9 mm/year. Thus, a supposed average value of 4.3 mm/year SLR would be reduced to 3.5 mm/year due to the counteraction of a mean tectonic uplift of about 0.8 mm/year (Papanikolaou et al., 2010). The expected sea level rise could also be locally offset by the increased fluvial sediment input and deposition in deltaic plains and resultant advance of the shoreline (Poulos et al., 2002). On the contrary, reduced fluvial sediment input in deltaic plains would reinforce sea inundation due to sea level rise. An important factor in the vulnerability of coastal areas to SLR is the coastal morphology (i.e. slope and lithological composition) because it is related directly to the rate of erosion. The latter can range from very high (several m/year) in the case of low-lying land to low (approximately mm/year) in the case of hard coastal limestone formations (e.g. cliffs).

Fig. 2. Coastal areas in Greece with medium (green colour) and high (red colour) vulnerability. Black colour indicates areas with altitudes below 20 m, usually of loose sedimentary deposits.

(Source: Papanikolaou et al., 2010)

In Figure 2, coastal areas are subdivided into: (a) those classified as of medium vulnerability to SLR (green colour) consisting of non consolidated sediment deposits in areas with low altitude, (b) those classified as of high vulnerability to SLR including deltaic deposits in low altitude (red colour). High risk areas are deltaic areas such as Evinos in Messolonghi, Kalama in Igoumenitsa, Acheloos, Mornos at the Corinthian Gulf, Pineios, Alfeios, Aliakmonas and Axios at the Thermaic Gulf, the area of North Aegean near Platamona, Amphipolis, Strymon, Nestos (to Abdyra), the Ebros, and the deltaic areas in Malliakos, Amvrakikos, Messiniakos and Argolikos Gulfs. Black colour indicates areas with altitudes below 20 m, usually of loose sedimentary deposits. The other zones designated as coastal areas of a low vulnerability are mainly rocky and high altitude coastal regions.

Assessing the severity of the rising sea level impacts on coastal areas includes uncertainties with regard to:


The estimation of the length of these three types of coastal areas shows that from a total of 16,200 km, 960 km (6%) corresponds to deltaic areas of high vulnerability (red colour), 2,400 km (15%) to non consolidated sediments of medium vulnerability (green colour) and the remaining 12,810 km (79%) to rocky coastal areas of low vulnerability. Therefore, the total coastline length characterized by medium to high vulnerability to SLR is about 3,360 km representing 21% of the Greek shoreline (Papanikolaou et al., 2010).

Typical approximate values of flooded coastal areas and shoreline retreat (excluding the tectonics and geodynamics corrections) triggered by a possible SLR equal to 0.5 m and 1 m in high risk areas are presented in Table 2. This table illustrates the impacts of SLR as estimated in 27 Greek coastal zone case studies. Available case studies were surveyed through a literature review till September 2010. The coastal land retreat for a hypothetical increase of SLR equal to 0.5 m ranges from 15 m to 2,750 m, while the range for a hypothetical increase of 1 m ranges from 400 m to 6,500 m. Figure 3 maps the geographical distribution of the examined case studies.

The selected case studies used for the economic assessment of SLR impacts on Greek coastal zone are: C1: Skala Eressos Mytilene, C2: Gulf of Nafplio, C3: Lagoon Kotichiou, C4: Hersonissos Crete, C5: Aigio Achaias, C6: Lambi Kos, C7: Kardamaina Kos, C8: Tigaki Kos, C9: Afantou Rhodes, C10: Vartholomio Ileias, C11: Acheloos River Delta, C12: Plain of Thessaloniki, C13: Abdyra Xanthi, C14: Lake Alyki Limnos, C15: Saltmarsh Kitrous Pierias, C16: Porto Heli, C17: Ermioni, C18: Evinos River Delta, C19: Mornos River Delta, C20: Kalama River Delta, C21: Penaeus River Delta, C22: Thermaic Gulf (includes Axios River Delta, Aliakmonas River Delta, Loudias-Aliakmonas Deltaic plain), C23: Kiparissiakos Gulf (includes Alfeios River Delta northern part and Alfeios River Delta - southern part), C24: South Euboean Gulf.

Linking Sea Level Rise Damage and Vulnerability Assessment: The Case of Greece 383

1 278

1 21,300

1 3,710

1 10,060

1 14,780

0.5 224

1 683

1 28,482

0.5 8,900 1 25,575 South Euboean Gulf 0.5 7,890 18.5 km Roussos &

Apart from long-term SLR, other climate phenomena capable of causing coastal erosion , are

Storm surges and SLR are distinct phenomena. However, climate change may increase the risk of storm surges by changing two drivers: cyclone 's frequencies/intensities and the mean sea-level rise (McInnes et al., 2000; Emanuel, 2005). The interannual and decadal variability in time of extremes is caused by mean sea level changes (Marcos et al., 2009).Changes in mean sea level and changes in the meteorological strength of storm surges (enhanced by climate change) may cause extreme wave phenomena and, accordingly, serious damage on coastal areas. This happens because strong winds affect larger water masses which unleash more energy to storm surges, while the height of the waves increases relatively to the mean sea level rise; as a result the waves further penetrate coastal areas and have significant impacts on coastline morphology. The strong coastal waves caused by the stormy winds cause erosion, while the normal, low-mid energy waves cause sediment

Table 2. Shoreline retreat and inundated area for potential SLR of 0.5-m and 1-m.

the foreseen increase of storminess / frequency of storm surges (IPCC, 2007).

deposition (Komar, 1998). The impacts of storm surges include:

Intrusion of salt water in coastal habitats, lagoons, rivers e.t.c.

120 km2 1 8,950

1 12,620 Karibalis, 2009

0.5 35 1 344

Evinos River Delta 0.5 12,500 92 km2

Mornos River Delta 0.5 2,580 28 km2

Kalama River Delta 0.5 7,020 78 km2

Penaeus River Delta 0.5 6,530 69 km2

Axios River Delta 0.5 10,825 390 km2

Aliakmonas River Delta 0.5 4,875

0.5 19 19.903 km

110 km2

Karibalis & Gaki-Papanastasiou, 2008

Poulos et al., 2009

Ermioni

Alfeios River Delta (northern part)

Alfeios River Delta (southern part)

Loudias-Aliakmonas

Flooding of coastal areas.

Coastal erosion.

Destruction of coastal infrastructure

Deltaic plain



Table 2. Shoreline retreat and inundated area for potential SLR of 0.5-m and 1-m.

Apart from long-term SLR, other climate phenomena capable of causing coastal erosion , are the foreseen increase of storminess / frequency of storm surges (IPCC, 2007).

Storm surges and SLR are distinct phenomena. However, climate change may increase the risk of storm surges by changing two drivers: cyclone 's frequencies/intensities and the mean sea-level rise (McInnes et al., 2000; Emanuel, 2005). The interannual and decadal variability in time of extremes is caused by mean sea level changes (Marcos et al., 2009).Changes in mean sea level and changes in the meteorological strength of storm surges (enhanced by climate change) may cause extreme wave phenomena and, accordingly, serious damage on coastal areas. This happens because strong winds affect larger water masses which unleash more energy to storm surges, while the height of the waves increases relatively to the mean sea level rise; as a result the waves further penetrate coastal areas and have significant impacts on coastline morphology. The strong coastal waves caused by the stormy winds cause erosion, while the normal, low-mid energy waves cause sediment deposition (Komar, 1998). The impacts of storm surges include:


382 International Perspectives on Global Environmental Change

Skala Eressos Mytilene 0.3 28 2.5 km Doukakis,

Gulf of Nafplio 0.5 4,200 25 km Doukakis,

Lagoon Kotichiou 0.5 720 27.6 km Doukakis,

Hersonissos Crete 0.5 4,700 20 km Doukakis,

Aigio Achaias 0.5 1,070 6.8 km Doukakis,

1 52

1 33

0.5 161

1 322

1 439

1 300 Acheloos River Delta 1 72 5.8 km Doukakis,

Abdyra Macedonia 1 716 7 km Doukakis,

0.5 9,450

Porto Heli 0.5 36 38.93 km Seni &

**Inundated area (10^3 m2)** 

**Length/Area** 

1 8,700 2005a

1 1,760 2003

1 5,200 2004

1 1,800 2005b

2.7 km


2003 1 11,800

1 161 Karibalis, 2007

**of shoreline Source** 

2008

Papadopoulou & Doukakis, 2003

2007

Kanelakis & Doukakis, 2004; Doukakis, 2007

2007

Pliakos & Doukakis, 2004; Doukakis, 2007

Stergiou & Doukakis,

**(m)** 

Lambi Kos 0.5 35 0.25 km

Kardamaina Kos 0.5 19 0.615 km

Afantou Rhodes 0.5 375 3 km

Vartholomio Ileias 0.5 190 2.65 km

Plain of Thessaloniki 1 37,100 41.2 km

Lake Alyki Limnos 1 2,041 4.3 km

**Coastal area SLR** 

Tigaki Kos

Saltmarsh Kitrous Pierias

Intrusion of salt water in coastal habitats, lagoons, rivers e.t.c.

Linking Sea Level Rise Damage and Vulnerability Assessment: The Case of Greece 385

Selection was based on data availability from 27 case studies of the Greek coastal area (Table 2). Based on these studies, the total loss of land for the five uses under investigation and for 0.5-m and 1-m elevation is assessed. Then, for housing, tourist and agricultural uses, a market pricing approach is drawn on in order to estimate unit and total financial losses. For wetlands and forestry we rely on the widely used application of value transfer (Navrud & Ready, 2007). Loss of public infrastructure (airports, ports) and industrial zones were not

The cost assessment of these impacts - both in the 27 case studies as well as the wider coastline area - was achieved by multiplying the total area lost in each case by the mean market value of property in the specific area. Two problems were faced here: the sparse data regarding land uses in the case studies, and the wide variation of prices for land property. So the value of 1,200 €/m2 was selected as the mean estimated market value of property, which better reflects the mean land price for housing and tourist purposes. This is equivalent to a similar figure (1300 €/year) a rough estimation by Velegrakis at al. (2008),

Assessment of the cost of loss of farmland was achieved by multiplying the lost area with the "specific basic value" (SBV) of the farmland for each location investigated. SBV represents the value of a square meter of non-irrigated farmland of yearly crop cultivations, as determined by the Ministry of Economics for property tax purposes. SBV applies only in

To estimate the cost of wetland losses, the total area of wetlands expected to be lost due to SLR is multiplied by their unit value. The unit value for wetlands (4.8 million €/km2) was 'transferred' from Darwin and Tol (2001), a well-known study regarding appraisal of SLR

wetland) 21.3 €/household per year Kalloni wetland (coastal wetland) 184-300 €/household

wetland) 115.3-144.1 €/household

of a marine park) 0.9-4.3 €/visitor

(conservation of pocket beaches) 15 €/visitor per year Karla lake (restoration of wetland) 27.4 € per trimonth for 3

terrestrial wetlands) 134.8-226.4 €/household per year

years/household

representing the mean income from tourist activities per meter of Greek beach.

areas facing roads or located up to 800 meters from the sea.

**Wetland Value** 

Kerkini lake (conservation of terrestrial

Heimaditida lake (conservation of terrestrial

Heimaditida & Zazari lakes (conservation of

Plomari & Vatera beaches-Lesvos island

Table 3. Social values for Greek wetlands.

Zakynthos National Marine Park (conservation

impacts. Table 3 depicts the social values for certain Greek wetlands.

taken into consideration. More specifically:

**Housing and tourist uses** 

**Agriculture** 

**Wetlands** 

Fig. 3. Map of Greece displaying the 27 case studies (Google Earth).
