**7. References**

30 International Perspectives on Global Environmental Change

summer monsoon intensity rose from a minimum to a maximum (Fig. 3). This observation implies that the rising summer monsoon intensity may have played a role in driving the termination to completion to some extent, because the summer monsoon, which transports heat from tropical oceans to the Asian mainland, is expected to lead to a rather warm environment and thus promote the snow-cover meltdowns in Asia (Fig. 1). Furthermore, the summer monsoon would favor the vegetation and wetland covers in Asia, which may in turn produce increased greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4. The feedback effects of the greenhouse gases are widely regarded as a potentially important player in glacial terminations (Petit et al., 1999; Ruddiman, 2003, 2006; Cheng et al., 2009). Likewise, the ocean circulation may have played an important role on the ice-sheet meltdowns as well, because it is considered as a very important heat transport in Northern Hemisphere (Fig. 1). It transports very warm tropical water to the Northern Hemisphere and warms the air during the transportation. Thus it may have an appreciable impact on the ice-cover meltdowns in Northern Hemisphere. Although the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation intensity is the primary trigger of an initial retreat of northern ice sheets, the modulating impacts from the monsoon system (including not only Asian monsoon, but also African and North American monsoons) and ocean circulation may be much more important than the presently thought (Fig. 1), which should be investigated in detail in future studies of the ice-age terminations. The observed relationship between insolation and climate during the late Quaternary may provide clues for predicting further climate changes. The insolation from now to the future 100 kyr will be similar to the last 100-kyr insolation behavior (Fig. 3C). Since the Asian summer monsoon is correlated cycle-by-cycle to the insolation during the past 100 kyr, a monsoon behavior similar to the insolation is anticipated to occur during the following 100 kyr. Because outstanding insolation maximum during the Holocene has been over and an insolation minimum is coming, a weak summer monsoon interval may come soon instead of the present Holocene strong summer monsoon period (Fig. 3 A–C). An insolation maximum comparable to the Holocene insolation maximum will appear ca. 70 kyr from now, thus a strong summer monsoon interval comparable to the Holocene strong summer monsoon interval will possibly not occur until then (Fig. 3 A–C). Relatively weakened summer monsoon maxima are likely to occur at ca. 10, 30 and 50 kyr from now, which are correlated

to less outstanding insolation maxima of these intervals (Fig. 3 A–C).

**5. Conclusions** 

As suggested by the benthic δ18O record from ODP Site 1143, we are presently living within an interglacial period (Fig. 3D). The following insolation maxima at 10 and 30 kyr from now are much lower than these during the last 350 kyr. Thus the present interglacial period will possibly continue shorter than the previous interglacial periods (Fig. 3C, D). This shortened interglacial period will be gradually replaced by a glacial period starting from ca. 10 kyr from now. Subsequently, the next glacial termination will occur at ca. 60 kyr from now when the insolation increases from an outstanding minimum to a prominent maximum, which will be followed by an interglacial period comparable to the present interglacial period. This prediction is consistent with the prediction of Raymo (1997) but in contrast to the predictions of Berger and Loutre (1997) and Ledley (1995). Note that the insolation maximum at ca. 70 kyr from now is much higher than its nearby insolation maxima (Fig. 3C), which should be considered as an insolation threshold for triggering this termination.

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**3** 

*India* 

Rajan R. Patil

**Climate Change and Health Effects** 

The United Nations Framework Convention (UNFC) on climate change defines climate change as, "a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to the human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods" (UNFCC, 1992). The EU has defined dangerous climate change as an increase in 2 degrees celsius of average global temperatures. Since 1900, global temperatures have risen by 0.7 degrees celsius and are continuing to rise at an estimated rate of 0.2 degrees per decade. If left unchecked, this

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was convened in 1992 with an overarching framework to address the challenges of climate change through inter governmental efforts. The objectives of the UNFCCC are: 1. To stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations to levels that prevent dangerous interference with the global climate system; and 2. To achieve these reductions within a time frame that allows ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. The Kyoto protocol was developed in 1997 to reinforce the emissions reduction commitments of the UNFCCC. The protocol came into legal force in 2005 when it was ratified by 30 industrialized nations, creating legally binding targets for a 5 percent reduction in emissions below 1990 levels by

The World Metrological Organization and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in an effort to combat the worsening situation, set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. In recognition of the strong body of evidence that this panel has painstakingly collated, it was honored with the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. The panel recently released their fourth assessment report which categorically states that the "warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observation of increases in global average air and ocean temperature, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level". The fourth assessment report has already identified three areas in which human health has already been affected by climate change. These are: (I) alteration of distribution of some infectious disease vectors, (ii) seasonal distribution of some allergenic pollen species, and (iii) increased heat wave related deaths (Confaloneieri et

That climate change impacts health in many ways was highlighted by the World Health Organization (WHO) when it chose to mark World Health Day on April 7 with the theme

implies global warming of at least 1.4 degrees celsius (IPCC, 2001).

**1. Introduction** 

2012.

al 2007).

*School of Public Health, SRM University, Chennai* 

