**A. Appendix**

See **Figures A1** and **A2** and **Tables A1** and **A2**.

**Figure A2.**

**265**

*fitted or estimated values from the model.*

*Will Malawi's Inflation Continue Declining? DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.91764*

Δ*it*<sup>3</sup> 0.036347 0.025592 0.1892 Δ*fdt* 6.85E05 8.90E06 0.0000 <sup>Δ</sup>*fdt*<sup>1</sup> 6.75E05 8.92E06 0.0000 Δ*et* 0.021708 0.018230 0.2642 Δ*et*<sup>1</sup> 0.184993 0.017992 0.0000 Δ*et*<sup>2</sup> 0.195165 0.018680 0.0000

*Model forecasting performance tests. (a) The Theil Inequality Coefficient test and (b) comparing the actual and*

**ARDL short-run results ARDL Long-run results Variable Coefficient Std. error P-value Coefficient Std. error P-value** <sup>Δ</sup> *inf <sup>t</sup>*<sup>1</sup> 0.093212 0.043127 0.0589 *<sup>m</sup>*2*<sup>t</sup>* 1.454819 0.440133 0.0092 <sup>Δ</sup> *inf <sup>t</sup>*<sup>2</sup> 0.350365 0.034636 0.0000 *it* 0.071854 0.049039 0.1769 Δ*m*2*<sup>t</sup>* 0.212724 0.015561 0.0000 *fdt* 0.000180 0.000102 0.1125 Δ*m*2*<sup>t</sup>*<sup>1</sup> 0.251965 0.015112 0.0000 Δ*et* 0.523396 0.327125 0.1441 Δ*it* 0.145083 0.023975 0.0002 Δ*mt* 0.429097 0.095834 0.0015 Δ*it*<sup>1</sup> 0.059094 0.027057 0.0568 *yt* 0.000370 0.000350 0.3188 Δ*it*<sup>2</sup> 0.047333 0.027611 0.1206 C 7.675094 2.359756 0.0100

#### **Figure A1.**

*Stability tests: (a) CUSUM test results for model stability and (b) CUSUM square test results for model stability.*

*Will Malawi's Inflation Continue Declining? DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.91764*

#### **Figure A2.**

**Acknowledgements**

up with this chapter.

**Conflict of interest**

**A. Appendix**

**Figure A1.**

*stability.*

**264**

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

*Linear and Non-Linear Financial Econometrics - Theory and Practice*

See **Figures A1** and **A2** and **Tables A1** and **A2**.

**Notes/Thanks/Other declarations**

and omissions are my responsibility.

I would like to thank Dr Kisiyawo Simwaka, Ms Marietta Kaval0, and Mr Wyton Jombo, all from the Reserve Bank of Malawi for making the data available in coming

The views expressed in this paper do not in any way represent the views of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA). All the remaining errors

*Stability tests: (a) CUSUM test results for model stability and (b) CUSUM square test results for model*

*Model forecasting performance tests. (a) The Theil Inequality Coefficient test and (b) comparing the actual and fitted or estimated values from the model.*



#### **Table A1.**

*ARDL results for the period 2001–2011.*


**Author details**

**267**

Hopestone Kayiska Chavula

*Will Malawi's Inflation Continue Declining? DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.91764*

provided the original work is properly cited.

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Macroeconomics and Governance Division, Economic Commission for Africa,

© 2020 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium,

\*Address all correspondence to: chavulah@yahoo.com; chavula@un.org

#### **Table A2.**

*ARDL results for the period 2012–2019.*

*Will Malawi's Inflation Continue Declining? DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.91764*

**ARDL short-run results ARDL Long-run results Variable Coefficient Std. error P-value Coefficient Std. error P-value**

Δ*et*<sup>3</sup> 0.031946 0.015896 0.0754 Δ*mt* 0.050171 0.004835 0.0000 Δ*mt* 0.070395 0.004778 0.0000 Δ*mt* 0.051798 0.004011 0.0000 Δ*mt* 0.051419 0.004266 0.0000 Δ*yt* 5.67E05 7.73E05 0.4820 <sup>Δ</sup>*yt*<sup>1</sup> 1.07E05 5.22E05 0.8416 <sup>Δ</sup>*yt*<sup>2</sup> 0.000108 4.19E05 0.0302 <sup>Δ</sup>*yt*<sup>2</sup> 0.000286 3.21E05 0.0000 *ectt*<sup>1</sup> 0.322544 0.018502 0.0000

*Linear and Non-Linear Financial Econometrics - Theory and Practice*

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic 0.3274 (0.7313) Heteroskedasticity test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey: F-statistic 1.9140 (0.1538)

Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test: F-statistic 2.4729 (0.1230) Heteroskedasticity test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey: F-statistic 1.0836 (0.4326)

**ARDL short-run results ARDL long-run results Variable Coefficient Std. Error P-value Variable Coefficient Std. error P-value** <sup>Δ</sup> *inf <sup>t</sup>*<sup>1</sup> 0.526685 0.112450 0.0003 *<sup>m</sup>*2*<sup>t</sup>* 0.019378 0.142288 0.8935 Δ*et* 0.012223 0.006129 0.0646 Δ*it* 0.074744 0.278291 0.7919 Δ*yt* 0.001064 0.000987 0.2977 Δ*fdt* 4.91E05 2.98E05 0.1205 <sup>Δ</sup>*yt*<sup>1</sup> 0.003913 0.000962 0.0010 <sup>Δ</sup>*et* 0.015466 0.023154 0.5143 *ectt*<sup>1</sup> 0.782070 0.105332 0.0000 *mt* 0.205028 0.087456 0.0332

> *yt* 0.000472 0.000913 0.6122 c 9.288554 4.007864 0.0350

R-squared: 0.978508

R-squared: 0.794218

**Table A2.**

**266**

*Note: Values in parentheses are P-values.*

*ARDL results for the period 2012–2019.*

**Table A1.**

*Note: Values in parentheses are P-values.*

*ARDL results for the period 2001–2011.*
